Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Dec 22, 2020 16:12:39 GMT -5
Songs that didn't make the year end list that I think will make it in 2021 Dakiti- Great streaming and rising radio. Lemonade- Great streaming and decent radio. Body- With the momentum it has, it can very well be at number 1 hit, great streaming, great sales and rising radio. positions- Consistent everywhere. Holy- Like positions, it's consistent everywhere. Kings & Queens- Good sales and good radio, can see it being in the top 10 after the Christmas music leaves. Therefore I Am- Although it's lagging in streaming, it still has good sales and rising in radio. Monster- Radio is starting to get on board with this song. Levitating- Good sales, continue to climb the radio and has decent streaming, another potential top 10 hit after the Christmas music exits. 7 Summers- This can definitely be a crossover hit once More Than My Hometown, it got a huge boost in sales thanks to his performance on SNL and it has decent streaming. my ex's best friend- Okay streaming and okay radio. Prisoner- It's falling in streaming but it's rising on radio. Starting Over- Good sales and decent radio. Bang!- Some people believe it might get caught in between years but I don't see it, it has great sales and good radio. you broke me first- Rising on radio and streaming, could be a top 10 or 20 hit. Even though 7 Summers dropped out, I'm still not ready to take it off my YE prediction just yet, I still think it has a chance (along with Golden) to rebound once the albums and Christmas music is gone. |
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Dec 22, 2020 16:16:01 GMT -5
J-D list was just posted
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Dec 22, 2020 16:27:28 GMT -5
Wouldn't they be virtually the same since they both use the Hot 100 formula that Billboard controls? Iβd say they are the same. I donβt see why Billboard would change their formula in Canada. (Which is where Iβm from.) I don't know why, but I'm sure Francophone tracks are excluded from the Canadian charts. Especially since Latin music is included. Quebecois stars are massive in the province |
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Dec 22, 2020 16:35:38 GMT -5
Iβd say they are the same. I donβt see why Billboard would change their formula in Canada. (Which is where Iβm from.) I don't know why, but I'm sure Francophone tracks are excluded from the Canadian charts. Especially since Latin music is included. Quebecois stars are massive in the province Why would French language songs be excluded? I could see them not being overwhelmingly massive, but French is still the native tongue of 1/5 of the countryβs population. Compare that to the US, where Spanish language songs routinely chart even though only 13% of the population are native Spanish speakers |
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gs
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Post by gs on Dec 22, 2020 20:41:50 GMT -5
TOTC's 2021 Hot 100 Year-End Predictions: Week 6  |
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Dec 22, 2020 21:03:02 GMT -5
Huh, it looks like AIWFCIY might not make it to the year-end this year
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kingvavis
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Post by kingvavis on Dec 22, 2020 21:12:46 GMT -5
Huh, it looks like AIWFCIY might not make it to the year-end this year It still might make it if the points for other songs continue to be weak throughout the year, meaning a lower cutoff point. |
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Post by οΌ³ο½ο½ο½ο½ο½ο½π€ο½ο½ on Dec 22, 2020 21:20:29 GMT -5
According to TOTC, AIWFCIY will have 450-500 points this week. 1,600 is the cutoff.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2020 21:48:25 GMT -5
Do you guys think blinding lights survived the recurrency rule this week with all the albums and Christmas this week? Yes. It's at #18. Next week is a different conversation. It may go recurrent next week I think it'll exit either next week or with Drake's upcoming album bomb, but re-enter after the Super Bowl. |
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Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...
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Post by Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815... on Dec 22, 2020 21:51:14 GMT -5
Can someone explain to me that list from TOTC? Why 2021? Is that a list accumulating the 2021 year already? If so, how?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2020 21:52:16 GMT -5
I know this has nothing to do with the topic at hand, but are you planning on participating in Lyhom's 2020 Hot 100 Rankdown? I haven't seen you participate in any, and for someone as active on Pulse and knowledgeable with the charts as you are, I'm a bit surprised that you haven't. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2020 21:53:03 GMT -5
Can someone explain to me that list from TOTC? Why 2021? Is that a list accumulating the 2021 year already? If so, how? Billboard runs its chart year from December of the previous year to November of the year in question. I know it's ridiculous, but it's how they've done it since the Hot 100's inception in the Late 50s. |
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Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...
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Post by Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815... on Dec 22, 2020 21:55:26 GMT -5
Can someone explain to me that list from TOTC? Why 2021? Is that a list accumulating the 2021 year already? If so, how? Billboard runs its chart year from December of the previous year to November of the year in question. I know it's ridiculous, but it's how they've done it since the Hot 100's inception in the Late 50s. Ohhh I see. Now it makes sense. Thank you! Thatβs such a weird way to calculate an actual calendar year. |
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Dec 22, 2020 23:24:15 GMT -5
I know this has nothing to do with the topic at hand, but are you planning on participating in Lyhom's 2020 Hot 100 Rankdown? I haven't seen you participate in any, and for someone as active on Pulse and knowledgeable with the charts as you are, I'm a bit surprised that you haven't. Iβm thinking about it. Probably will |
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Dec 22, 2020 23:26:40 GMT -5
Billboard runs its chart year from December of the previous year to November of the year in question. I know it's ridiculous, but it's how they've done it since the Hot 100's inception in the Late 50s. Ohhh I see. Now it makes sense. Thank you! Thatβs such a weird way to calculate an actual calendar year. If you want to see what the looks like when run from the actual calendar year, I have a different thread dedicated to that. I literally just posted the 2020 chart today |
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Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...
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Post by Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815... on Dec 22, 2020 23:38:38 GMT -5
Ohhh I see. Now it makes sense. Thank you! Thatβs such a weird way to calculate an actual calendar year. If you want to see what the looks like when run from the actual calendar year, I have a different thread dedicated to that. I literally just posted the 2020 chart today Thanks for point that out. Just saw it. Very cool |
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Dec 23, 2020 17:42:00 GMT -5
What are the odds that the points cutoff will be relatively low this year? 2020's cutoff was fairly average, but that's mostly because the winter/early spring hits were strong enough (plus a ton of songs that debuted in the mid- to late summer months) to keep the cutoff mostly where we expected it to be. However, a lot of this new Billboard year's (non-Christmas) top 40 hits are very weak compared to previous years. I can see the cutoff being even lower than it was in 2019 if things don't pick up later in the year. And if they do, we could see some decent top 20 hits that had a chance to make it earlier in the year (i.e. right about now) get kept off the YE entirely.
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Post by smallbubble on Dec 26, 2020 2:55:04 GMT -5
I do believe blinding lights' chances to repeat on the year end list now sorely depends on whether billboard would allow songs to return to chart after christmas like they did last year.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Dec 26, 2020 9:08:54 GMT -5
I think Blinding Lights will be alright, although the streaming has lagged because of the Christmas, it still has good sales and radio to make up for that.
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atg
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Post by atg on Dec 26, 2020 16:37:34 GMT -5
Blinding Lights has the year end radio play, the consistent streaming and the superbowl going to give one final major boost before it is all over and then thatβs when it will make itβs final footsteps out. Who knows, if the charts are so weak to the point where we drop below 150 points for the #1 song, it could probably do another 15 weeks in the top 10
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Dec 28, 2020 12:58:16 GMT -5
I don't see Kings & Queens cracking the top 10, it's radio is falling fast and the sales aren't good enough to make up for that.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Dec 28, 2020 14:00:22 GMT -5
I don't see Kings & Queens cracking the top 10, it's radio is falling fast and the sales aren't good enough to make up for that. Agreed. I think Levitating is a more likely candidate for the top 10. |
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Dec 28, 2020 14:14:12 GMT -5
I don't see Kings & Queens cracking the top 10, it's radio is falling fast and the sales aren't good enough to make up for that. At this point, I'm not even sure it's a solid lock for the 2021 YE because of how weak the charts are. This is its 20th week, too, and it lost 13 of those to 2020's chart year, so if it leaves soon, it's in trouble. |
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hobicorewithluv π
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Post by hobicorewithluv π on Dec 29, 2020 0:51:30 GMT -5
Willow dropped from No.1 to No.38 (lost to -37 points) was a big shock to me. It was shattered the record from Tekashimoto's record.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2020 2:42:54 GMT -5
In willow's defense its drop-off was during Christmas week which this year was even stronger than it has ever been before
Trollz and co fell off hard on average chart weeks which speaks more volume
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Dec 29, 2020 8:28:56 GMT -5
In willow's defense its drop-off was during Christmas week which this year was even stronger than it has ever been before Trollz and co fell off hard on average chart weeks which speaks more volume Yeah. Without Christmas songs, Willow would have only fell to 14. |
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liam1396
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Post by liam1396 on Dec 29, 2020 9:34:45 GMT -5
Top 40 without christmas songs:
1)Mood by 24k Goldn and iann Dior(7)
2)Positions by Ariana Grande(14)
3)Holy by Justin Bieber feat. Chance The Rapper(21)
4)Go Crazy by Chris Brown and Young Thug(24)
5)Laugh Now Cry Later by Drake feat. Lil Durk(25)
6)Levitating by Dua Lipa and DaBaby(27)
7)For The Night by Pop Smoke feat. Lil Baby and DaBaby(29)
8)I Hope by Gabby Barett and Charlie Puth(30)
9)Lemonade by Internet Money feat. Gunna,Don Toliver and NAV(31)
10)Dakiti by Bad Bunny and Jhay Cortez(34)
11)Body by Megan Thee Stallion(35)
12)Bang! By AJR(37)
13)Willow by Taylor Swift(38)
14)34+35 by Ariana Grande(40)
15)Kings and Queens by Ava Max(41)
16)Therefore I Am by Billie Eilish(42)
17)Dynamite by BTS(44)
18)What You Know Bout Love by Pop Smoke(51)
19)Whoopty by CJ(52)
20)Lonely by Justin Bieber and Benny Blanco(53)
21)WAP by Cardi B feat. Megan Thee Stallion(55)
22)Holiday by Lil Nas X(56)
23)Better Together by Luke Combs(57)
24)On Me by Lil Baby(58)
25)Afterglow by Ed Sheeran(59)(New entry)
26)Gnat by Eminem(60)(New entry)
27)Hawai by Maluma and The Weeknd(63)
28)Monster by Shawn Mendes and Justin Bieber(64)
28)Diamonds by Sam Smith(65)
29)Starting Over by Chris Stapleton(66)
30)Cry Baby by Megan Thee Stallion feat. DaBaby(67)
31)You Broke Me First by Tate McRae(68)
32)My Ex's Best Friend by Machine Gun Kelly and Blackbear(69)
33)Without You by The Kid LAROI(70)
34)Big,Big Plans by Chris Lane(71)
35)Mr. Right Now by 21 Savage and Metro Boomin feat. Drake(72)
36)Forever After All by Luke Combs(73)
37)Throat Baby(Go Baby) by BRS Kash(74)
38)Tyler Herro by Jack Harlow(76)
39)Champagne Problems by Taylor Swift(77)
40)Love Like I Used to by Russell Dickerson(79)
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liam1396
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Post by liam1396 on Dec 29, 2020 9:46:13 GMT -5
Top 40 without christmas songs: 1)Mood by 24k Goldn and iann Dior(7) 2)Positions by Ariana Grande(14) 3)Holy by Justin Bieber feat. Chance The Rapper(21) 4)Go Crazy by Chris Brown and Young Thug(24) 5)Laugh Now Cry Later by Drake feat. Lil Durk(25) 6)Levitating by Dua Lipa and DaBaby(27) 7)For The Night by Pop Smoke feat. Lil Baby and DaBaby(29) 8)I Hope by Gabby Barett and Charlie Puth(30) 9)Lemonade by Internet Money feat. Gunna,Don Toliver and NAV(31) 10)Dakiti by Bad Bunny and Jhay Cortez(34) 11)Body by Megan Thee Stallion(35) 12)Bang! By AJR(37) 13)Willow by Taylor Swift(38) 14)34+35 by Ariana Grande(40) 15)Kings and Queens by Ava Max(41) 16)Therefore I Am by Billie Eilish(42) 17)Dynamite by BTS(44) 18)What You Know Bout Love by Pop Smoke(51) 19)Whoopty by CJ(52) 20)Lonely by Justin Bieber and Benny Blanco(53) 21)WAP by Cardi B feat. Megan Thee Stallion(55) 22)Holiday by Lil Nas X(56) 23)Better Together by Luke Combs(57) 24)On Me by Lil Baby(58) 25)Afterglow by Ed Sheeran(59)(New entry) 26)Gnat by Eminem(60)(New entry) 27)Hawai by Maluma and The Weeknd(63) 28)Monster by Shawn Mendes and Justin Bieber(64) 28)Diamonds by Sam Smith(65) 29)Starting Over by Chris Stapleton(66) 30)Cry Baby by Megan Thee Stallion feat. DaBaby(67) 31)You Broke Me First by Tate McRae(68) 32)My Ex's Best Friend by Machine Gun Kelly and Blackbear(69) 33)Without You by The Kid LAROI(70) 34)Big,Big Plans by Chris Lane(71) 35)Mr. Right Now by 21 Savage and Metro Boomin feat. Drake(72) 36)Forever After All by Luke Combs(73) 37)Throat Baby(Go Baby) by BRS Kash(74) 38)Tyler Herro by Jack Harlow(76) 39)Champagne Problems by Taylor Swift(77) 40)Love Like I Used to by Russell Dickerson(79) 40% of the hot 100 this week are Christmas songs |
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Dec 29, 2020 10:56:31 GMT -5
Man, I was really hoping Blinding Lights could dodge going recurrent. Hopefully Billboard lets it back next week when the Christmas songs disappear
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Post by nathanalbright on Dec 29, 2020 14:05:50 GMT -5
I am curious to see what happens with the chart re-set, as a long of songs that we see as dangerously flopping don't look nearly so bad when one takes out the hefty supply of holiday songs.
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