gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 4, 2021 0:04:43 GMT -5
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atg
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Post by atg on Mar 4, 2021 2:09:22 GMT -5
It feels like 2020 is still here. 34+35 is from 2020, positions is from 2020, Levitating is from 2020, Go Crazy is from 2020, Save Your Tears is from 2020, Mood is from 2020 and Blinding Lights is from 2019. Even some of the newer songs like Up feel like just keeping the ball rolling from iconic 2020 hits & could have easily fit in to that chart year. I guess Drivers License at least isn't a 2020 holdover even if it doesn't seem super specific to this year. The real frustration is that the biggest new shakeup that screams "2021" was perhaps Good Days and that barely even picked up traction in the top 10 & is already on the way out while that blanket of 2020 songs lounge around in there with no problem. It really does feel like 2020 is still here. You have no idea how much uni course work i've titled as 2020. Oh and Blinding lights is still here, starting to think the song is linked to the pandemic. This is why it’s pronounced “2020-1”, think of it as a copy of an original file on a computer Honestly this is the first year i’ve felt the same as well. Especially with Save Your Tears, Levitating and Streets all being the current singles from early 2019/2020 albums, with no signs of slowing down. Blinding Lights and Mood might as well stick around until 2029 and it’ll still probably feel like 2020 even without them.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Mar 4, 2021 6:56:46 GMT -5
Although this was before the 25/52 rule, 2014 had many holdovers from 2013 and previous years. We had Sail (a 2011/2012/2013 holdover) charting a quarter of the way into 2014, and Radioactive (a 2012/2013 holdover) a little further than that. One of the 2013 holdovers, All of Me, was #1 in May and charted pretty much the entirety of 2014.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Mar 4, 2021 7:17:40 GMT -5
Speaking of Radioactive/Sail, do we think Blinding Lights will beat Radioactive's record?
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Mar 4, 2021 7:41:06 GMT -5
Unless Billboard decides to implement a 10/78 between BL's 78th and 87th weeks, I think it has a good chance of beating Radioactive's record. I Hope survived 10 weeks post-Christmas, so if BL is still in the Top 10 in Week 78, I think the record is going to fall.
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lifeofaguardian
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Almost definitely not a furry
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Mar 6, 2021 4:40:17 GMT -5
Week 16 - 06/03/2020After yet more weeks of not updating this properly, here I am, once again, hoping to get back to normal updates. Decided to add Kings & Queens to the "locked dropouts" section because there aren't any this week and I didn't talk about it last week. Current Status (all songs over 125.000 points, 185.000 points to be considered locked):Added this week:The Weeknd - Save Your Tears Niko Moon - Good Time BRS Kash - Throat Baby (Go Baby) Lil Baby - On Me SZA - Good Days Drop-Outs this week:None Songs Locked this week:Luke Combs - Better Together Songs Crossing the Cut-off this week:CJ - Whoopty Currently lowest Locked song:Ava Max - Kings & Queens Songs predicted to lock within 5 weeks:1 week:CJ - Whoopty 2 weeks:None 3 weeks:Tate McRae - You Broke Me First Chris Stapleton - Starting Over Taylor Swift - Willow The Weeknd - Save Your Tears 4 weeks:Machine Gun Kelly x blackbear - My Ex's Best Friend 5 weeks:Niko Moon - Good Time BRS Kash - Throat Baby (Go Baby) Lil Baby - On Me SZA - Good Days Cardi B - Up Crossing cutoff in 5 weeks:None Predicted Positions for Locked Drop-Outs:#89: Ava Max - Kings & Queens Forecast (Songs must have 158.000 points when adding multiple weeks of the points gained last week to their total):
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spoons
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Post by spoons on Mar 6, 2021 13:41:27 GMT -5
I Hope and Go Crazy are the payola hits so far
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jab625246
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Post by jab625246 on Mar 7, 2021 19:07:39 GMT -5
Can we all just agree that 2021 so far is just 2020 but duller? Both for music and the world at large 2021 is like part two of 2020. Nothing special has happened in the year so far and the Hot 100 felt stagnant for the most part. I have a feeling 2022 will be the year that will officially begin the 2020s in terms of music.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2021 22:30:31 GMT -5
Can we all just agree that 2021 so far is just 2020 but duller? Both for music and the world at large 2021 is like part two of 2020. Nothing special has happened in the year so far and the Hot 100 felt stagnant for the most part. I have a feeling 2022 will be the year that will officially begin the 2020s in terms of music. Pretty typical, really. The 90s for example didn't really kick in until late 1991 and 1992, when Grunge and Hip Hop really blew up, and I'm sure there'll be some meme in the future that says that the 2010s didn't start until 2013.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Mar 8, 2021 10:56:51 GMT -5
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inverse
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Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Mar 8, 2021 16:57:26 GMT -5
It is with great joy that I announce that the cursed Lil Pump era has ended. now let's hope it doesn't wind up at #1 so that i don't have to do anything like this again
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2021 18:06:17 GMT -5
It is with great joy that I announce that the cursed Lil Pump era has ended. now let's hope it doesn't wind up at #1 so that i don't have to do anything like this again On another note, my bet with Young Thug and Gunna's Hot is still on. If Driver's License isn't the Year-End #1, I'll have to change my profile pic to Hot's single cover (Hot was my least favorite hit of 2020, for the record. The beat makes my ears bleed).
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Mar 8, 2021 20:47:34 GMT -5
Most people won't even assume you lose a bet they'll just be like "ooh that was a jam"
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Mar 9, 2021 10:24:49 GMT -5
Drivers License seems to be following a similar trajectory to 7 Rings. It’s not earning many weekly points, but the field is so weak that it basically just sits in the top spot uncontested. If the year strengthens up by the summer, it probably winds up being easy to beat.
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rockgolf
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Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
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Post by rockgolf on Mar 9, 2021 19:18:58 GMT -5
So the Mar 13, 2021 chart marks the first time the Hot 100 has gone behind a paywall at the Billboard site. This is not a good sign - they are trying to get revenue which may mean they are running on fumes financially. This shouldn't be surprising given the general malaise in all publishing and in the music industry as well. Nevermind, I went to the wrong link.
Appreciate Billboard while it's around, because it may not be much longer. I really hope I'm wrong about that. In the meantime here's my estimate of where songs would appear if the 2021 year-end were taking place this week.
Last week I said I couldn't foresee any new top ten songs on the Hot 100. Now it looks like at least 4 or 5 will enter the top ten next week, including 3 from Drake. His "What's Next" is expected to dethrone "Driver's License" by entering at #1, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Mars/Pak duo eventually outlasting all of the Drake tracks as it will hold a wider range of radio for a longer time.
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Mar 10, 2021 18:57:43 GMT -5
Billboard 2021 YE Predictions (Week 17/52) Locked🔒: None Locked Next Week: You Broke Me First Dropouts: Monster, Afterglow
1 “Mood” 24KGoldn ft. Iann Dior 44,470 2 “Positions” Ariana Grande 34,800 3 “Blinding Lights” The Weeknd 33,610 4 “Driver’s License” Olivia Rodrigo 31,930 5 “Go Crazy” Chris Brown ft. Young Thug 31,520 6 “34+35” Ariana Grande 29,660 7 “Holy” Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper 29,340 8 “Levitating” Dua Lipa ft. Dababy 28,500 9 “I Hope” Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth 27,670 10 “Laugh Now Cry Later” Drake ft. Lil Durk 26,500 11 “For The Night” Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & Dababy 26,030 12 “Dakiti” Bad Bunny ft. Jhay Cortez 25,410 13 “Therefore I Am” Billie Eilish 25,280 14 “Lemonade” Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV 24,710 15 “Bang!” AJR 23,690 16 “Dynamite” BTS 22,760 17 “What You Know About Love” Pop Smoke 22,360 18 “Lonely” Justin Bieber & benny blanco 21,680 19 “Body” Megan Thee Stallion 20,900 20 “Better Together” Luke Combs 20,370 21 “Whoopty” CJ 19,810 22 “Kings & Queens” Ava Max 18,880 23 “All I Want For Christmas Is You” Mariah Carey 18,470 ===LOCKED CUTOFF (18,000 POINTS)===
24 “You Broke Me First” Tate McRae 17,150 25 “Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree” Brenda Lee 16,620 26 “Willow” Taylor Swift 16,530 27 “Starting Over” Chris Stapleton 16,110 28 “My Ex’s Best Friend” Machine Gun Kelly ft. Blackbear 16,060 29 “Save Your Tears” The Weeknd 15,830 30 “ROCKSTAR” Dababy ft. Roddy Ricch 15,030 31 “Good Time” Niko Moon 14,530 32 “Throat Baby (Go Baby)” BRS Kash 14,320 33 “Before You Go” Lewis Capaldi 14,220 34 “On Me” Lil Baby 14,200 35 “Good Days” SZA 13,860 36 “More Than My Hometown” Morgan Wallen 13,860 37 “Jingle Bell Rock” Bobby Helms 13,430 38 “Forever After All” Luke Combs 13,090 39 “WAP” Cardi B ft. Megan Thee Stallion 12,920 40 “WHAT’S POPPIN” Jack Harlow ft. Dababy, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne 12,750 41 “Monster” Shawn Mendes ft. Justin Bieber 12,290 42 “Savage Love” Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo 12,240 43 “Diamonds” Sam Smith 11,860 44 “Hole In The Bottle” Kelsea Ballerini 11,780 45 “Big, Big Plans” Chris Lane 11,500 46 “Tyler Herro” Jack Harlow 11,350 47 “Cry Baby” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Dababy 11,320 48 “It’s The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year” Andy Williams 11,250 49 “Anyone” Justin Bieber 11,170 50 “You’re Mines Still” Yung Bleu ft. Drake 11,140 51 “Without You” The Kid Laroi 11,090 52 “7 Summers” Morgan Wallen 10,900 53 “Put Your Records On” Ritt Momney 10,870 54 “HOLIDAY” Lil Nas X 10,730 55 “Hawai” Maluma ft. The Weeknd 10,700 56 “Golden” Harry Styles 10,440 57 “A Holly Jolly Christmas” Burl Ives 10,220 58 “Feliz Navidad” Jose Feliciano 9,980 59 “Up” Cardi B 9,940 60 “Back In Blood” Pooh Shiesty ft. Lil Durk 9,660 61 “Somebody’s Problem” Morgan Wallen 9,590 62 “Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Dean Martin 9,590 63 “Love You Like I Used To” Russell Dickerson 9,490 64 “I Should Probably Go To Bed” Dan + Shay 9,470 65 “The Christmas Song” Nat King Cole 9,390 66 “Mr. Right Now” 21 Savage & Metro Boomin ft. Drake 9,260 67 “Streets” Doja Cat 9,030 68 “Afterglow” Ed Sheeran 8,820 69 “Beers And Sunshine” Darius Rucker 8,780 70 “Last Christmas” Wham! 8,690 71 “Wasted On You” Morgan Wallen 8,560 72 “Damage” H.E.R 8,550 73 “Prisoner” Miley Cyrus ft. Dua Lipa 8,210 74 “Best Friend” Saweetie ft. Doja Cat 8,060 75 “What’s Your Country Song” Thomas Rhett 8,040 76 “Just The Way” Parmalee ft. Blanco Brown 7,870 77 “Champagne Night” Lady A 7,800 78 “Down To One” Luke Bryan 7,660 79 “Underneath The Tree” Kelly Clarkson 7,480 80 “So Done” The Kid Laroi 7,310 81 “Back To The Streets” Saweetie ft. Jhene Aiko 7,280 82 “Sand In My Boots” Morgan Wallen 7,220 83 “Happy Anywhere” Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani 7,160 84 “Bichota” Karol G 7,070 85 “B.S” Jhené Aiko ft. H.E.R 7,010 86 “The Good Ones” Gabby Barrett 6,940 87 “Happy Does” Kenny Chesney 6,940 88 “Hit Different” SZA ft. Ty Dolla Sign 6,780 89 “Monsters” All Time Low ft. Demi Lovato & Blackbear 6,650 90 “Watermelon Sugar” Harry Styles 6,590 91 “Calling My Phone” Lil Tjay ft. 6LACK 6,380 92 “Long Live” Florida Georgia Line 6,220 93 “Ain’t Always The Cowboy” Jon Pardi 6,090 94 “Still Trappin” Lil Durk ft. King Von 6,060 95 “Beat Box” Spotemgottem 5,800 96 “Life Goes On” BTS 5,690 97 “Midnight Sky” Miley Cyrus 5,600 98 “Buss It” Erica Banks 5,510 99 “Be Like That” Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee & Khalid 5,400 100 “Pretty Heart” Parker McCollum 5,090
OTHERS: 101 “Took Her To The O” King Von 5,080 102 “Moonwalking In Calabasas” DDG 5,050 103 “ily (i love you baby)” Surf Mesa ft. Emilee 4,930 104 “Still Goin Down” Morgan Wallen 4,900 105 “Wonder” Shawn Mendes 4,900 106 “Goosebumps” Travis Scott & HVME 4,820 107 “Lady” Brett Young 4,600 108 “Cover Me Up” Morgan Wallen 4,600 109 “Girl Like Me” Black Eyed Peas ft. Shakira 4,330 110 “La Noche De Anoche” Bad Bunny and Rosalia 4,260 111 “Momma’s House” Dustin Lynch 4,220 112 “Hell Of A View” Eric Church 4,140 113 “Heat Waves” Glass Animals 4,060 114 “Drankin N Smokin” Future & Lil Uzi Vert 4,050 115 “Time Today” Moneybagg Yo 3,650 116 “Somebody Like That” Tenille Arts 3,580 117 “Bad Boy” Juice WRLD ft. Young Thug 3,560 118 “865” Morgan Wallen 3,210 119 “Warning” Morgan Wallen 3,190 120 “No More Parties” Coi Leray 3,170 121 “My Head & My Heart” Ava Max 2,930 122 “Champagne Problems” Taylor Swift 2,350 123 “Astronaut In The Ocean” Masked Wolf 2,230 124 “Heather” Conan Gray 2,220 125 “FRANCHISE” Travis Scott ft. Young Thug & M.I.A 2,170 126 “Dangerous” Morgan Wallen 2,080 127 “Tequila Shots” Kid Cudi 1,990 128 “Errbody” Lil Baby 1,890 129 “U 2 Luv” Ne-Yo ft. Jeremih 1,880 130 “Telepatia” Kali Uchis 1,810 131 “Love Story (Taylor’s Version)” Taylor Swift 1,610
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 11, 2021 7:12:52 GMT -5
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Post by jedenpolska on Mar 11, 2021 12:28:02 GMT -5
I think with the speculation of Driver's License as YE #1, following the path of God's Plan would be the most likely scenario, due to both songs having a similar placement within the year and also being #1 debuts. This would require DL to have three more weeks at #1 (non-consecutively), be in the top 10 until July and then fall off by early October. And the rest of the competition would have to be equal to or weaker the 2018 competition. This is all possible, but I don't think is likely. Personally, I'd be surprised if DL is still charting by July, let alone in the top 10.
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atg
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Post by atg on Mar 11, 2021 12:39:02 GMT -5
^ something tells me it won’t be the year end #1, and something else will take it over later in the year. Learning from the past 2 year end lists, hitting the top spot at the beginning of the year isn’t always a guarantee at the YE #1. I feel like DL’s run will be really similar to The Box, but we’ll have to wait and see for sure.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 11, 2021 12:57:52 GMT -5
At this point, I'm planning on Blinding Lights being the YE #1 again unless something else comes along to unseat it. Seriously, its streaming and radio are holding up remarkably well, and I don't think either of those components will plummet for a fair bit.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2021 13:50:01 GMT -5
At this point, I'm planning on Blinding Lights being the YE #1 again unless something else comes along to unseat it. Seriously, its streaming and radio are holding up remarkably well, and I don't think either of those components will plummet for a fair bit. I wonder what Blinding Lights' chart run would have been like if the pandemic didn't happen. I think it still would've been massive (probably even the 2020 Year-End #1), but I don't think it would still be in the top 10 15 months after its release.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 11, 2021 13:56:50 GMT -5
At this point, I'm planning on Blinding Lights being the YE #1 again unless something else comes along to unseat it. Seriously, its streaming and radio are holding up remarkably well, and I don't think either of those components will plummet for a fair bit. I wonder what Blinding Lights' chart run would have been like if the pandemic didn't happen. I think it still would've been massive (probably even the 2020 Year-End #1), but I don't think it would still be in the top 10 15 months after its release. It probably would have either dropped out by this time or would be very close to doing so.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Mar 11, 2021 19:20:55 GMT -5
My gut tells me that if Leave the Door Open goes to #1 on the 3/27 chart after the Grammys, I think it will spend double-digit weeks at #1 and be the Year End #1.
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n13l5
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I like to follow the billboard chart predictions on here
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Post by n13l5 on Mar 13, 2021 14:31:56 GMT -5
My gut tells me that if Leave the Door Open goes to #1 on the 3/27 chart after the Grammys, I think it will spend double-digit weeks at #1 and be the Year End #1. I just hope it will make the year end list
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2021 14:57:49 GMT -5
My gut tells me that if Leave the Door Open goes to #1 on the 3/27 chart after the Grammys, I think it will spend double-digit weeks at #1 and be the Year End #1. I just hope it will make the year end list Considering how stable the streaming has been and that radio is rapidly picking it up, I'm sure it will. In fact, I think it'll be in the top half of the Year-End list.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Mar 13, 2021 15:00:00 GMT -5
What chances do Forever After All and Golden have of making the YE if they drop in the next two weeks?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2021 15:01:37 GMT -5
What chances do Forever After All and Golden have of making the YE if they drop in the next two weeks? Forever After All is Luke's next radio single, so I see it getting a second wind soon.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 13, 2021 15:06:55 GMT -5
What chances do Forever After All and Golden have of making the YE if they drop in the next two weeks? Forever After All is going to break recurrency pretty soon due to it being Luke’s newest radio single, so I expect it to pass my projected cutoff in about 2-3 weeks. Golden just got dropped by pop radio recently and will be on its 20th week next week, so it will easily miss the YE.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Mar 13, 2021 16:45:15 GMT -5
What chances do Forever After All and Golden have of making the YE if they drop in the next two weeks? Forever After All is going to break recurrency pretty soon due to it being Luke’s newest radio single, so I expect it to pass my projected cutoff in about 2-3 weeks. Golden just got dropped by pop radio recently and will be on its 20th week next week, so it will easily miss the YE. Damn that’s tough, it’s a great song.
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atg
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Post by atg on Mar 13, 2021 17:23:15 GMT -5
I just hope it will make the year end list Considering how stable the streaming has been and that radio is rapidly picking it up, I'm sure it will. In fact, I think it'll be in the top half of the Year-End list. My prediction is the top quarter and hopefully the top 10 but that could be reaching too much.
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