2021 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 9)

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Nov 23, 2020 6:30:10 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

What are the odds we get a formula change this upcoming year?

I  could see that happening. I reckon that once vaccines start become commercialized, people will be going out and listening to music on the go more often

[lazer]

There will be a formula change after the vaccine is released. Billboard has no choice but to weigh streaming more when people will start to go back to work or school.

[mikerivera]

That doesn’t require a formula change; streaming will naturally take a more dominant role when more people are using it again.

[nathanalbright]

No need in making it lopsided, after all.

[Groovy]

2021 Top 10 year-end predictions Week 2 (nothing really changes)

1. Mood- 24KGoldn feat. Iann Dior
2. positions- Ariana Grande
3. I Hope- Gabby Barrett feat. Charlie Puth
4. Laugh Now Cry Later- Drake feat. Lil Durk
5. Blinding Lights- The Weeknd
6. Holy- Justin Bieber feat. Chance the Rapper
7. Lemonade- Internet Money & Gunna feat. Don Tolver & Gunna
8. Dakiti- Bad Bunny & Jhay Cortez
9. For the Night- Pop Smoke feat. Lil Baby & DaBaby
10. Savage Love- Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo

[gikem]

I know it's early in the tracking year, but how are the odds for Starting Over to make the 2021 YE? Just peaked at #25 today and still has a long way to go on its radio arc, but lost 10+ weeks to the 2020 chart year. I really like the song and I'd love for Chris Stapleton to have a solo YE hit.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^It also debuted this week at #30 in Streaming Songs. If it can have some longevity there, it would be able to manage some in the Hot 100 as well. I would hope so as well.

[Deleted]

Nov 24, 2020 16:55:04 GMT -5 gikem said:

I know it's early in the tracking year, but how are the odds for Starting Over to make the 2021 YE? Just peaked at #25 today and still has a long way to go on its radio arc, but lost 10+ weeks to the 2020 chart year. I really like the song and I'd love for Chris Stapleton to have a solo YE hit.

I hope it makes it too. I'm a Stapleton fan, so I'd want him to have a solo Year-End hit.

[rockgolf]

I'm not making any 2021 predictions until we know when the new year starts. Not very interesting at this point anyhow.

However I will be updating the All-Time Top 10,000 regularly.

[Deleted]

Nov 24, 2020 16:55:04 GMT -5 gikem said:

I know it's early in the tracking year, but how are the odds for Starting Over to make the 2021 YE? Just peaked at #25 today and still has a long way to go on its radio arc, but lost 10+ weeks to the 2020 chart year. I really like the song and I'd love for Chris Stapleton to have a solo YE hit.

I think that rise to #25 was because of an album boost (correct me if I'm wrong). However, it's only at around #15 on country radio, which means that a lot of its current chart points are due to streaming. That should be good news for the song considering once radio pushes it to the top, it could potentially hit the top 20 and make the 2021 year end list.

[Deleted]

Nov 24, 2020 18:22:14 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Nov 24, 2020 16:55:04 GMT -5 gikem said:

I know it's early in the tracking year, but how are the odds for Starting Over to make the 2021 YE? Just peaked at #25 today and still has a long way to go on its radio arc, but lost 10+ weeks to the 2020 chart year. I really like the song and I'd love for Chris Stapleton to have a solo YE hit.

I think that rise to #25 was because of an album boost (correct me if I'm wrong). However, it's only at around #15 on country radio, which means that a lot of its current chart points are due to streaming. That should be good news for the song considering once radio pushes it to the top, it could potentially hit the top 20 and make the 2021 year end list.

When do you see it peaking? Maybe January or early February?

[gikem]

Nov 24, 2020 18:59:19 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

Nov 24, 2020 18:22:14 GMT -5 @delphox said:

I think that rise to #25 was because of an album boost (correct me if I'm wrong). However, it's only at around #15 on country radio, which means that a lot of its current chart points are due to streaming. That should be good news for the song considering once radio pushes it to the top, it could potentially hit the top 20 and make the 2021 year end list.

When do you see it peaking? Maybe January or early February?

I say it depends on how fast its ascent/descent on country radio is. That seems to be the case for most of these organic country hits recently.

Also, Drake's upcoming album bomb might be a factor if it peaks around the time that happens (and hopefully it won't).

[Deleted]

Nov 24, 2020 19:04:57 GMT -5 gikem said:

Nov 24, 2020 18:59:19 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

When do you see it peaking? Maybe January or early February?

I say it depends on how fast its ascent/descent on country radio is. That seems to be the case for most of these organic country hits recently.

Also, Drake's upcoming album bomb might be a factor if it peaks around the time that happens (and hopefully it won't).

On the topic of Drake's album bomb, do you guys think that it could match the hydrogen album bomb that was Scorpion, or will it be a bit more modest?

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

I was considering doing YE prediction based off Crownnote points (as I have a Crownnote account, go follow me too), but I don't have an idea when the 2021 chart year starts. Guess I can wait for the YE list to come out to know the cutoff of 2020.

[gikem]

Nov 24, 2020 19:08:13 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

Nov 24, 2020 19:04:57 GMT -5 gikem said:

I say it depends on how fast its ascent/descent on country radio is. That seems to be the case for most of these organic country hits recently.

Also, Drake's upcoming album bomb might be a factor if it peaks around the time that happens (and hopefully it won't).

On the topic of Drake's album bomb, do you guys think that it could match the hydrogen album bomb that was Scorpion, or will it be a bit more modest?

I don't think it will be quite as big as Scorpion, but DLDT this year did more damage than I expected, even though it went away quickly.

It's a wait-and-see at this point, especially since he has (surprisingly) not yet dropped a follow-up single to LNCL. But I think most of the damage will be akin to what the Mac Miller/Eminem twin album bomb earlier this year did, sweeping away old hits that either already made the 2020 Year-End or are on their way to getting caught between years.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

I'm curious if anyone has enough grit to do a year-end for the Global charts

[jab625246]

Nov 25, 2020 1:42:29 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I'm curious if anyone has enough grit to do a year-end for the Global charts

It could be 200 positions long just like how the Hot 100 Year-End is 100 positions long like the regular Hot 100.

[PositivityMaster48]

Hi everyone, I’m new to Pulse and I’m a huge fan of Year-End charts and the people predicting those charts. I figured I’d try my hand for this year and see how it goes. I hope you all enjoy! (Sorry that this is a week late.)
2021 Billboard Year-End Predictions (Week 1/52) (11/21/2020)
# Song Artist Points
1 “Mood” 24KGoldn ft. Iann Dior 3,470
2 “Positions” Ariana Grande 2,190
3 “I Hope” Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth 2,110
4 “Laugh Now Cry Later” Drake ft. Lil Durk 2,080
5 “Blinding Lights” The Weeknd 1,910
6 “Lemonade” Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV 1,890
7 “Holy” Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper 1,820
8 “Dakiti” Bad Bunny ft. Jhay Cortez 1,770
9 “Savage Love” Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo 1,760
10 “For The Night” Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & Dababy 1,680
11 “WAP” Cardi B ft. Megan Thee Stallion 1,640
12 “Hawai” Maluma ft. The Weeknd 1,610
13 “Go Crazy” Chris Brown ft. Young Thug 1,590
14 “ROCKSTAR” Dababy ft. Roddy Ricch 1,580
15 “Kings & Queens” Ava Max 1,540
16 “Before You Go” Lewis Capaldi 1,520
17 “Dynamite” BTS 1,510
18 “Watermelon Sugar” Harry Styles 1,450
19 “More Than My Hometown” Morgan Wallen 1,390
20 “Be Like That” Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee & Khalid 1,380
21 “Lonely” Justin Bieber & benny blanco 1,370
22 “Said Sum” Moneybagg Yo 1,350
23 “ily (i love you baby)” Surf Mesa ft. Emilee 1,310
24 “Bang!” AJR 1,300
25 “WHAT’S POPPIN” Jack Harlow ft. Dababy, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne 1,280
26 “Levitating” Dua Lipa ft. Dababy 1,250
27 “Forever After All” Luke Combs 1,220
28 “What You Know About Love” Pop Smoke 1,200
29 “One Of Them Girls” Lee Brice 1,180
30 “34+35” Ariana Grande 1,160
31 “Love You Like I Used To” Russell Dickerson 1,120
32 “Wonder” Shawn Mendes 1,120
33 “One Beer” Hardy ft. Lauren Alaina & Devin Dawson 1,100
34 “Got What I Got” Jason Aldean 1,090
35 “Happy Anywhere” Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani 1,050
36 “Pretty Heart” Parker McCollum 1,040
37 “Better Together” Luke Combs 1,000
38 “Diamonds” Sam Smith 960
39 “Midnight Sky” Miley Cyrus 920
40 “pov” Ariana Grande 910
41 “Starting Over” Chris Stapleton 830
42 “I Should Probably Go To Bed” Dan + Shay 820
43 “You Broke Me First” Tate McRae 810
44 “Mr. Right Now” 21 Savage & Metro Boomin ft. Drake 800
45 “FRANCHISE” Travis Scott ft. Young Thug & M.I.A 790
46 “Big, Big Plans” Chris Lane 790
47 “My Ex’s Best Friend” Machine Gun Kelly ft. Blackbear 740
48 “7 Summers” Morgan Wallen 710
49 “U 2 Luv” Ne-Yo ft. Jeremih 660
50 “Throat Baby (Go Baby)” BRS Kash 650
51 “Hit Different” SZA ft. Ty Dolla Sign 640
52 “Martin & Gina” Polo G 640
53 “Don’t Stop” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Young Thug 630
54 “Good Time” Niko Moon 620
55 “Champagne Night” Lady A 610
56 “Golden” Harry Styles 600
57 “Heather” Conan Gray 590
58 “Put Your Records On” Ritt Momney 580
59 “Hole In The Bottle” Kelsea Ballerini 550
60 “Therefore I Am” Billie Eilish 530

[Groovy]

I 100 percent can see Blinding Lights not leaving the Hot 100 until March now with the Grammys snub and the Super Bowl halftime.

[PositivityMaster48]

Nov 25, 2020 10:32:29 GMT -5 Groovy said:

I 100 percent can see Blinding Lights not leaving the Hot 100 until March now with the Grammys snub and the Super Bowl halftime.

Same though.. Blinding Lights might bounce back up a couple spots due to this, but I think it’s time in the Top 5 is done.

[Henry Suárez]

Nov 25, 2020 1:42:29 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I'm curious if anyone has enough grit to do a year-end for the Global charts

I'd like for someone to do a year-end but there's only around 15 or 16 weeks? (counting December weeks).

I wonder if Billboard will publish a global year-end, it would only cover September thru November tho.

[Groovy]

How long do you guys think Life Goes On will be at 1 for?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Nov 25, 2020 16:09:04 GMT -5 Henry Suárez said:

Nov 25, 2020 1:42:29 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I'm curious if anyone has enough grit to do a year-end for the Global charts

I'd like for someone to do a year-end but there's only around 15 or 16 weeks? (counting December weeks).

I wonder if Billboard will publish a global year-end, it would only cover September thru November tho.

i meant for 2021, not this year lmao. now that the charts are there, i wonder who'll want to follow a whole 200-song chart for an entire year

[PositivityMaster48]

2021 Billboard Year-End Predictions (Week 2/52) (11/28/2020)
Locked Next Week: Mood
# Song Artist Points
1 “Mood” 24KGoldn ft. Iann Dior 6,660
2 “Positions” Ariana Grande 4,460
3 “I Hope” Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth 4,230
4 “Laugh Now Cry Later” Drake ft. Lil Durk 4,060
5 “Blinding Lights” The Weeknd 3,750
6 “Lemonade” Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV 3,720
7 “Holy” Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper 3,700
8 “Dakiti” Bad Bunny ft. Jhay Cortez 3,470
9 “Savage Love” Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo 3,400
10 “For The Night” Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & Dababy 3,330
11 “Go Crazy” Chris Brown ft. Young Thug 3,200
12 “Kings & Queens” Ava Max 3,120
13 “WAP” Cardi B ft. Megan Thee Stallion 3,100
14 “ROCKSTAR” Dababy ft. Roddy Ricch 3,020
15 “Dynamite” BTS 3,000
16 “Therefore I Am” Billie Eilish 2,980
17 “Before You Go” Lewis Capaldi 2,950
18 “Hawai” Maluma ft. The Weeknd 2,900
19 “More Than My Hometown” Morgan Wallen 2,870
20 “Be Like That” Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee & Khalid 2,760
21 “Watermelon Sugar” Harry Styles 2,740
22 “Lonely” Justin Bieber & benny blanco 2,610
23 “ily (i love you baby)” Surf Mesa ft. Emilee 2,590
24 “Bang!” AJR 2,570
25 “Levitating” Dua Lipa ft. Dababy 2,550
26 “Said Sum” Moneybagg Yo 2,530
27 “WHAT’S POPPIN” Jack Harlow ft. Dababy, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne 2,440
28 “34+35” Ariana Grande 2,360
29 “What You Know About Love” Pop Smoke 2,330
30 “One Of Them Girls” Lee Brice 2,290
31 “Love You Like I Used To” Russell Dickerson 2,220
32 “Forever After All” Luke Combs 2,210
33 “One Beer” Hardy ft. Lauren Alaina & Devin Dawson 2,200
34 “Pretty Heart” Parker McCollum 2,110
35 “Starting Over” Chris Stapleton 2,090
36 “Happy Anywhere” Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani 2,090
37 “Wonder” Shawn Mendes 2,080
38 “Got What I Got” Jason Aldean 2,060
39 “Better Together” Luke Combs 2,020
40 “pov” Ariana Grande 1,860
41 “Diamonds” Sam Smith 1,840
42 “Big, Big Plans” Chris Lane 1,750
43 “You Broke Me First” Tate McRae 1,670
44 “I Should Probably Go To Bed” Dan + Shay 1,660
45 “Midnight Sky” Miley Cyrus 1,590
46 “Mr. Right Now” 21 Savage & Metro Boomin ft. Drake 1,570
47 “Ain’t Always The Cowboy” Jon Pardi 1,550
48 “FRANCHISE” Travis Scott ft. Young Thug & M.I.A 1,550
49 “My Ex’s Best Friend” Machine Gun Kelly ft. Blackbear 1,490
50 “7 Summers” Morgan Wallen 1,400
51 “U 2 Luv” Ne-Yo ft. Jeremih 1,300
52 “Throat Baby (Go Baby)” BRS Kash 1,300
53 “Don’t Stop” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Young Thug 1,280
54 “Good Time” Niko Moon 1,260
55 “Hit Different” SZA ft. Ty Dolla Sign 1,260
56 “Martin & Gina” Polo G 1,240
57 “Champagne Night” Lady A 1,210
58 “Golden” Harry Styles 1,210
59 “Hole In The Bottle” Kelsea Ballerini 1,180
60 “All I Want For Christmas Is You” Mariah Carey 1,170
61 “Drankin N Smokin” Future & Lil Uzi Vert 1,150
62 “Heather” Conan Gray 1,150
63 “Put Your Records On” Ritt Momney 1,140
64 “HOLIDAY” Lil Nas X 1,050
65 “Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree” Brenda Lee 960
66 “Stripes Like Burberry” Future & Lil Uzi Vert 950

[gs]

TOTC's 2021 Hot 100 Year-End Predictions: Week 2

SPOILER: Click to show

{Spoiler}

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

Besides "Midnight Sky" and maybe "Diamonds", what are other songs that seem likely to get caught between years?

(too early to predict, I know)

[gikem]

Nov 26, 2020 7:08:14 GMT -5 Lost In Musical Reverie said:

Besides "Midnight Sky" and maybe "Diamonds", what are other songs that seem likely to get caught between years?

(too early to predict, I know)

One Beer for sure, maybe Bang as well if the radio traction doesn’t hold up into the new year. I’d even throw in Pretty Heart and ISPGTB given both are outperforming expectations for country hits.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

I think we should wait for the 2020 list to come out first. Like if Said Sum isn't on the list, it's definitely getting caught but there are some predictions that have it making so who knows

[joshtheking]

I'm predicting that Pov will be the new Breathin. A great song that has good traction as an album track, but by the time it gets released as a single the hype has died down and ultimately gets overshadowed by the 2 other singles Ariana is promoting (Thank U Next & 7 Rings/Positions & 34+35). 

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

Nov 26, 2020 11:41:43 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

I'm predicting that Pov will be the new Breathin. A great song that has good traction as an album track, but by the time it gets released as a single the hype has died down and ultimately gets overshadowed by the 2 other singles Ariana is promoting (Thank U Next & 7 Rings/Positions & 34+35). 

"breathin" still peaked at #12 and managed to make the Year-End, though, so that wouldn't be such a bad scenario after all.

But yeah, we've seen that Tik Tok trends tend to have a pretty short duration, so it would be wise for Ariana to strike while the iron is hot. However, I don't think she wants to compromise the performance of the other two singles, especially "positions", which is doing incredibly well on both streaming and radio.

Only time will tell, really.