gikem
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Post by gikem on Apr 22, 2021 14:27:28 GMT -5
At this point, I think it's going to be either Mood or LTDO ending the year at #1, and whichever one gets it is probably going to depend on when Mood leaves the charts. If it manages to stick around above the top 50 threshold until it goes recurrent in August via the 52/25 rule, it'll probably be the YE #1. But if it doesn't, LTDO will definitely overtake it, as it seems primed to dominate with its cross-format appeal the same way Happy and Uptown Funk did in the past.
In terms of what will round out the YE top 5, I think Drivers License is definitely in position to make it. Blinding Lights will definitely be in the top 10, but top 5 is a toss-up and will really depend on whenever it slips below #25. Save Your Tears is in the same boat, even with the remix coming: If radio drops it soon, top 10 is still possible, but not top 5. Levitating is my dark-horse pick, as it's had a shocking amount of traction across the board and looks primed to finish its run with at least 40 weeks, maybe even making it a full year. RAPSTAR isn't out of the question, but right now it's too early to tell.
WAY LATE EDIT: I completely forgot about Peaches...yeah, this looks like it's gonna have a good chance to finish in the YE top 5 as well. #1 is a toss-up, but I'd argue its chances aren't as good as LTDO's, at least right now.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Apr 22, 2021 14:57:52 GMT -5
I love how there's no clear #1 yet. It's fun to speculate.
My current predictions for year end top 10 in no order are Mood, Blinding Lights, Drivers License, Rapstar, Save Your Tears, Leave The Door Open, Levitating, and 3 others.
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n13l5
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Post by n13l5 on Apr 22, 2021 16:36:07 GMT -5
How anyone can even tolerate Closer is absolutely beyond me. Its terrible to me in every possible way and easily the most unlinstenable #1 of the entire decade Going even further, I think it's one of the best songs of the decade, hit or not. I think it's a decade defining masterpiece. No exaggeration. What aspects make it a masterpiece to you?
I was not exaggerating either btw
Edit: nvm this is not where this Thread is about, my apologies
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Apr 22, 2021 18:08:10 GMT -5
I took a deeper look into the 2010 Year End chart, and the positions of Dynamite, Break Your Heart, and Rude Boy still don't make any sense. Few questions:
1. Break Your Heart and Rude Boy came out at about the same time. How did Break Your Heart finish at #10 and Rude Boy at #15, despite BYH only spending a week at #1 and Rude Boy 5 weeks at #1? Did Rude Boy have a Lose Yourself/In My Feelings type collapse after falling from #1?
2. How did Dynamite finish at #9, ahead of BYH and Rude Boy, despite peaking in late August/early September and never reaching #1?
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Apr 22, 2021 18:37:16 GMT -5
I took a deeper look into the 2010 Year End chart, and the positions of Dynamite, Break Your Heart, and Rude Boy still don't make any sense. Few questions: 1. Break Your Heart and Rude Boy came out at about the same time. How did Break Your Heart finish at #10 and Rude Boy at #15, despite BYH only spending a week at #1 and Rude Boy 5 weeks at #1? Did Rude Boy have a Lose Yourself/In My Feelings type collapse after falling from #1? 2. How did Dynamite finish at #9, ahead of BYH and Rude Boy, despite peaking in late August/early September and never reaching #1? The answer to both of your questions, in a single word, is "longevity." 1. Break Your Heart spent 29 weeks on the Hot 100 vs. Rude Boy's 22, and also spent more weeks in the top 10 (15 vs. 12). 2. Dynamite was a longevity monster for the time, spending 47 weeks on the Hot 100 and 18 of those in the top 10 (between July and November of that year).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2021 22:33:19 GMT -5
I took a deeper look into the 2010 Year End chart, and the positions of Dynamite, Break Your Heart, and Rude Boy still don't make any sense. Few questions: 1. Break Your Heart and Rude Boy came out at about the same time. How did Break Your Heart finish at #10 and Rude Boy at #15, despite BYH only spending a week at #1 and Rude Boy 5 weeks at #1? Did Rude Boy have a Lose Yourself/In My Feelings type collapse after falling from #1? 2. How did Dynamite finish at #9, ahead of BYH and Rude Boy, despite peaking in late August/early September and never reaching #1? The answer to both of your questions, in a single word, is "longevity." 1. Break Your Heart spent 29 weeks on the Hot 100 vs. Rude Boy's 22, and also spent more weeks in the top 10 (15 vs. 12). 2. Dynamite was a longevity monster for the time, spending 47 weeks on the Hot 100 and 18 of those in the top 10 (between July and November of that year). I find it strange how Taio Cruz had not one, but two smash hits at the beginning of the 2010s, only to completely disappear soon after. You'd think those two hits would have given him enough momentum to at least make it through the rest of the Club Boom (which ended in 2013), if not up until Trap took over in late 2015, but he vanished just as fast as he appeared.
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Post by nathanalbright on Apr 22, 2021 23:47:26 GMT -5
The early 2010's were full of flash in the pan artists who had massive hits and never managed to attain any kind of career longevity. Why should we any more surprised about Taio Cruz than we are about .Fun or Carly Rae Jepsen or Charlie XCX or Gotye or [insert name of flash in the pan pop-fav here]?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2021 0:02:12 GMT -5
The early 2010's were full of flash in the pan artists who had massive hits and never managed to attain any kind of career longevity. Why should we any more surprised about Taio Cruz than we are about .Fun or Carly Rae Jepsen or Charlie XCX or Gotye or [insert name of flash in the pan pop-fav here]? Well, I think putting Fun in that list needs an asterisk, considering that they went on hiatus right at the peak of their career. I don't know if they would've had any success after the Indie Boom faded, but if Imagine Dragons could have later success, I think the band that gave us Some Nights could've made it work too. Carly Rae Jepsen and Charli XCX are both darlings of pop nerds, and Gotye was in the right place at the right time with Somebody That I Used To Know (not intending to discredit that song, it's great). If Jason Derulo (an artist with a similar lack of personality and charisma to Taio) could have a long-lasting, successful career past his big turn-of-the-2010s hits, I think Taio Cruz could've at least made it past 2011 if he played his cards right.
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Apr 23, 2021 0:06:54 GMT -5
The early 2010's were full of flash in the pan artists who had massive hits and never managed to attain any kind of career longevity. Why should we any more surprised about Taio Cruz than we are about .Fun or Carly Rae Jepsen or Charlie XCX or Gotye or [insert name of flash in the pan pop-fav here]? Carly Rae Jepsen and Charli XCX are two of the most critically adored acts of the 2010s, they've carved out their own niche and fanbase outside of the charts. Like with gabingston said, fun. went on to have great success behind the scenes (especially jack Antonoff) and Gotye was an indie art pop artist and who hasn't put out any new music since 2013, of course he didn't have longevity. Also it's not just the 2010s that had flash in the pan artists. Every decade has that. `
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Post by nathanalbright on Apr 23, 2021 0:12:47 GMT -5
One might think so, but Taio Cruz was never a recognized album artist and released only one album after breaking through, an album that had some success in the UK but not much in the U.S. After that, he "went on hiatus" as well, apparently.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2021 0:21:00 GMT -5
One might think so, but Taio Cruz was never a recognized album artist and released only one album after breaking through, an album that had some success in the UK but not much in the U.S. After that, he "went on hiatus" as well, apparently. I actually decided to listen to the lead single from that follow-up album (Hangover), and I'm surprised it wasn't a hit. It was a hit in the other Anglosphere countries, and it definitely fits into the trends of the time, so I'm shocked it only peaked at #62 and lasted one week on the Hot 100, considering how huge he was just a year earlier.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2021 0:22:29 GMT -5
The early 2010's were full of flash in the pan artists who had massive hits and never managed to attain any kind of career longevity. Why should we any more surprised about Taio Cruz than we are about .Fun or Carly Rae Jepsen or Charlie XCX or Gotye or [insert name of flash in the pan pop-fav here]? Carly Rae Jepsen and Charli XCX are two of the most critically adored acts of the 2010s, they've carved out their own niche and fanbase outside of the charts. Like with gabingston said, fun. went on to have great success behind the scenes (especially jack Antonoff) and Gotye was an indie art pop artist and who hasn't put out any new music since 2013, of course he didn't have longevity. Also it's not just the 2010s that had flash in the pan artists. Every decade has that. ` I'm looking at you, Wilson Philipps (scored massive hits in 1990/91 and nothing after).
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Apr 23, 2021 1:37:47 GMT -5
Fun definitely wasn’t just a flash in the pan. They scored 3 hits off of Some Nights, followed by Nate Ruess getting a #1 hit with Pink (he also wrote Walk Me Home in 2019). Meanwhile, Jack Antonoff has had success in the alternative scene with Bleachers, and has become the main producer for Taylor Swift and Lorde. He’s also produced/co-wrote for Lana Del Rey, St Vincent, the song Brave by Sara Bareilles, and the soundtrack for Love Simon. So just because *Fun* isn’t around anymore doesn’t mean they’re actually gone
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Apr 23, 2021 3:30:07 GMT -5
Oh, the Chainsmokers. What an iconically huge smash Closer was. One of my favorite hits of the decade. Don't Let Me Down was an iconic serve too. How anyone can even tolerate Closer is absolutely beyond me. Its terrible to me in every possible way and easily the most unlinstenable #1 of the entire decade Ok so as someone who is in almost the opposite boat (2nd fave #1 of the decade) here u go! First of all I like the way it sounds. I don't mind the drop at all (I get if its not your thing though), I've always loved Halsey's voice and the instrumental backdrop with the snap and the breezy synths skipping along at a brisk pace playing off the beautiful piano chords create a sound that just feels warm and welcoming like lying down on the beach oblivious to the world around you. The way the song ebbs and flows almost gives me the feeling of waves crashing on the shore. But I also like how the sharp synth tone on the drop cuts its way into the sunniness of the rest of the song, as if commanding attention to the story. It's also the (2nd) best written #1 hit of the decade. It's not particularly outlandish or a unique experience but I love all the details that capture a snapshot of a brief part of the lives of the characters of the song & the mess of emotions of rekindling a relationship maybe for all the wrong reasons (and ending the song with Halsey's vocals just shooting into the sun is the perfect use of sound to create an ambiguous ending that leaves me wanting more). Especially in a year like 2016 where so many songs just meandered around hearing a song like this that is so committed to its story was appreciated. Also helps that there's 3 different vocal melodies throughout the song and they're all very subtly catchy & playful and help the different parts of the story stand out more. And there's something that just touched me about the part where they sing "We ain't ever getting older" There's a couple flaws. Andrew Taggart isn't a great singer and the fact that they used the exact same melody for the chorus and the drop is a bit lazy, I like the melody and I'm happy to hear it twice in a row but I think there was missed potential if they'd done something else, and so its only the 20th best #1 hit of all time and 2nd best of the decade. But still a song that's very dear to me all the same. Hope that helps! I do get where the people who don't like it that much are coming from tho sometimes a song just clicks in a certain way which is the great thing about music
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n13l5
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Post by n13l5 on Apr 23, 2021 9:10:49 GMT -5
How anyone can even tolerate Closer is absolutely beyond me. Its terrible to me in every possible way and easily the most unlinstenable #1 of the entire decade Ok so as someone who is in almost the opposite boat (2nd fave #1 of the decade) here u go! First of all I like the way it sounds. I don't mind the drop at all (I get if its not your thing though), I've always loved Halsey's voice and the instrumental backdrop with the snap and the breezy synths skipping along at a brisk pace playing off the beautiful piano chords create a sound that just feels warm and welcoming like lying down on the beach oblivious to the world around you. The way the song ebbs and flows almost gives me the feeling of waves crashing on the shore. But I also like how the sharp synth tone on the drop cuts its way into the sunniness of the rest of the song, as if commanding attention to the story. It's also the (2nd) best written #1 hit of the decade. It's not particularly outlandish or a unique experience but I love all the details that capture a snapshot of a brief part of the lives of the characters of the song & the mess of emotions of rekindling a relationship maybe for all the wrong reasons (and ending the song with Halsey's vocals just shooting into the sun is the perfect use of sound to create an ambiguous ending that leaves me wanting more). Especially in a year like 2016 where so many songs just meandered around hearing a song like this that is so committed to its story was appreciated. Also helps that there's 3 different vocal melodies throughout the song and they're all very subtly catchy & playful and help the different parts of the story stand out more. And there's something that just touched me about the part where they sing "We ain't ever getting older" There's a couple flaws. Andrew Taggart isn't a great singer and the fact that they used the exact same melody for the chorus and the drop is a bit lazy, I like the melody and I'm happy to hear it twice in a row but I think there was missed potential if they'd done something else, and so its only the 20th best #1 hit of all time and 2nd best of the decade. But still a song that's very dear to me all the same. Hope that helps! I do get where the people who don't like it that much are coming from tho sometimes a song just clicks in a certain way which is the great thing about music Thank you for the explanation. I dont think i can disagree more but at least you word your opinion well and in a respectful way so i appreciate that. For me its mostly the melody thats taunting to me and the drop thats uninspiring, powerless and really cheeply produced, those things get under my skin with the song. We do agree about Andrew Teggart not being a great singer, something else that doesnt work for me with him is that i dont buy him being sincere (which he tries to be in the song), since he's always so shallow irl and in other songs.
Those are my 2 cents, enjoy listening to it in the future and I will not do the same
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Apr 23, 2021 10:13:48 GMT -5
I used to hate Closer because of overplay (which I now realize is a stupid reason to hate a song tbh) and weirdly enough now I'm kind of nostalgic for it
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alexandria2001
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Post by alexandria2001 on Apr 23, 2021 16:49:54 GMT -5
My predictions for the year end #1:
The charts have been weaker in points this year compared to previous years. Usually by this time of the chart year, the projected top three has between 500,000 and 800,000 chart points. This time, the projected top three only has between 400,000 and 600,000 chart points. The lowest song in the as-of-late-April year end projections for recent years to have between 500,000 - 600,000 points was generally around #5-6 there. The top 4-5 would end up in the year end top ten unless we're talking about 2020. There was also the growing songs that had enough longevity to make the year end top ten in the end. Right now, the lowest song between 500,000 - 600,000 points in the as-of-late-April year end projections is the #1 song there. We're assuming the charts will get stronger again to the general point of pre-pandemic levels by June, July the latest, which is safe to assume.
The Late Spring-Summer-Fall hits will have the advantage over the Winter-Spring hits for the first time in how long. For a song to reach #1 on the 2021 year end list, it has to blow up as early as now or as late as June, then become a Bad Guy or Rockstar sized hit points wise, with good longevity through the end of the chart year in the fall, in the end.
Songs in the currently projected top three (no order aside from Mood at the top. Some have Drivers License behind Blinding Lights in their current projections)
Mood
Year end top ten is likely but not #1. Any huge late spring/summer hit with fall longevity could overtake it in points by October.
Blinding Lights
The song can get to around 600,000 total chart points before an album bomb in late May or June knocks it into recurrency. Year end top ten is likely, but a huge late spring/summer smash with longevity through the fall can pass it. Blinding Lights' only hope is a third wind, but it would have to give the song a big enough boost to stand against late spring-fall hits and a possibly inevitable viral behemoth.
Drivers License
It keeps falling in points every week, not gaining at all since its debut. Year end top ten is likely, but it might be behind Blinding Lights in the end anyway anyway unless it edges past a recurrent Blinding Lights in the Summer (assuming it survives to around late summer.) As another said, Drivers License may be going the 7 Rings route. It will be in the year end top ten but not #1.
Songs most likely to top the 2021 year end:
A late Spring-Fall hit
It would need to get an amount of points similar to Rockstar or at least Bad Guy (during the part of Bad Guy's run from May-onward specifically would be enough.) The song will need to be big enough, with longevity through the fall, in order to get 700,000-900,000 points to be eligible for the year end #1. Then there's the late spring-fall smashes that end up with 600,000-700,000 points at most every year. The songs with those points will be in the year end top ten this year unlike usual, most of them are likely going to be above Blinding Lights.
A viral behemoth
So something like Old Town Road, where a song goes viral, gains 80,000-100,000 points a week at its peak, then keeps up some good longevity. Something like this that blows up in even July would be able to reach #1 on the 2021 year end. Even a short peak viral hit like In My Feelings could do it this year considering the weak chart points during the first half of the chart year thing is seemingly significant.
Peaches
All it needs is to be stable through the summer with longevity into the fall. It also needs to be a bit bigger though. If it rides the stronger chart points wave enough, it could be the year end #1, but it would have to do the most it can do, in its best case scenario, with enough longevity, while assuming we won't get a viral behemoth or an I Like It/Bad Guy/Rockstar sized late spring-fall longevity smash (points wise,) in order to pull it off. Top ten but not #1 is more likely.
Rapstar
Hypothetically, if this ends up being the Bad Guy or Rockstar sized hit with good longevity in the end, then this will be number one for the year. Right now, it's too early to be sure. This doesn't seem like it'll be a year end #1, but it definitely seems like a big enough hit (year end top 5 in any normal year if the song is stable and has good longevity) that weak charts during only the first half of the chart year gives this song an advantage. If it remains stable, with good longevity, through the early fall, it would be the year end #1. Too early to tell though, we'll see what happens.
In other words, it IS fun to speculate
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lifeofaguardian
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Apr 24, 2021 3:45:25 GMT -5
Week 24 - 24/04/2021Since I skipped week 23 last week, I'm going to include some of its data in this post. Also, ignore Ruff Ryders' Anthem in the forecast - I'm aware the data is wrong, it's simply a quirk of the system I use that affects posthumous returns (and other returns from older years). Current Status (all songs over 125.000 points, 185.000 points to be considered locked):Added this week:Lil Tjay ft. 6LACK - Calling My Phone Thomas Rhett - What's Your Country Song Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) - Leave the Door Open H.E.R. - Damage Parmalee x Blanco Brown - Just the Way Gabby Barrett - the Good Ones SpotemGottem ft. Pooh Shiesty or DaBaby - Beat Box Drop-Outs this week:None Songs Locked this week:Yung Bleu ft. Drake - You're Mines Still Songs Crossing the Cut-off this week:Pooh Shiesty ft. Lil Durk - Back In Blood Luke Combs - Forever After All The Kid LAROI - Without You Justin Bieber - Anyone Megan Thee Stallion ft. DaBaby - Cry Baby Currently lowest Locked song:Ava Max - Kings & Queens Songs predicted to lock within 5 weeks:1 week:Pooh Shiesty ft. Lil Durk - Back In Blood Luke Combs - Forever After All The Kid LAROI - Without You Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) - Leave the Door Open 2 weeks:Justin Bieber - Anyone Megan Thee Stallion ft. DaBaby - Cry Baby Saweetie ft. Doja Cat - Best Friend Lil Tjay ft. 6LACK - Calling My Phone 3 weeks:Doja Cat - Streets SpotemGottem ft. Pooh Shiesty or DaBaby - Beat Box Justin Bieber ft. Daniel Caesar & Giveon - Peaches 4 weeks:Gabby Barrett - the Good Ones Masked Wolf - Astronaut in the Ocean Lil Nas X - Montero (Call Me By Your Name) Polo G - Rapstar 5 weeks:Thomas Rhett - What's Your Country Song Drake - What's Next Crossing cutoff in 5 weeks:H.E.R. - Damage Parmalee x Blanco Brown - Just the Way Predicted Positions for Locked Drop-Outs:#57: BTS - Dynamite #63: CJ - Whoopty #67: Megan Thee Stallion - Body #107: Ritt Momney - Put Your Records On Forecast (Songs must have 158.000 points when adding multiple weeks of the points gained last week to their total):
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HamedM1 💔
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Post by HamedM1 💔 on Apr 24, 2021 16:59:47 GMT -5
I used to hate Closer because of overplay (which I now realize is a stupid reason to hate a song tbh) and weirdly enough now I'm kind of nostalgic for it Same but I only ever liked Closer if at all because I like Halsey vocally
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Apr 25, 2021 12:38:51 GMT -5
The answer to both of your questions, in a single word, is "longevity." 1. Break Your Heart spent 29 weeks on the Hot 100 vs. Rude Boy's 22, and also spent more weeks in the top 10 (15 vs. 12). 2. Dynamite was a longevity monster for the time, spending 47 weeks on the Hot 100 and 18 of those in the top 10 (between July and November of that year). I find it strange how Taio Cruz had not one, but two smash hits at the beginning of the 2010s, only to completely disappear soon after. You'd think those two hits would have given him enough momentum to at least make it through the rest of the Club Boom (which ended in 2013), if not up until Trap took over in late 2015, but he vanished just as fast as he appeared. I feel like the same thing is gonna happen to Lewis Capaldi, I'd be shocked if he had another hit after Before You Go.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Apr 25, 2021 12:50:14 GMT -5
I apologize for keep bringing up this person but are there gonna be any Morgan Wallen songs making the YE?
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Post by jedenpolska on Apr 25, 2021 13:09:03 GMT -5
I apologize for keep bringing up this person but are there gonna be any Morgan Wallen songs making the YE? I think it's very possible that with the chart being relatively weak that More Than My Hometown could barely slip in. But I'd bet against that and with Wallen's recent post that he's taking the summer off from the spotlight too, I don't think he will release any new comeback music until next charting year.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Apr 25, 2021 14:07:39 GMT -5
I apologize for keep bringing up this person but are there gonna be any Morgan Wallen songs making the YE? Doubtful. The one that will probably come the closest is Wasted On You, and even then it won't make it past much more than 1500 points at its current rate. MTMH and 7 Summers are already well below the threshold.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Apr 25, 2021 14:32:46 GMT -5
^In exchange for that, unfortunately it seems very likely his double album will probably end up being #1 in the year-end Billboard 200.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2021 14:36:38 GMT -5
I find it strange how Taio Cruz had not one, but two smash hits at the beginning of the 2010s, only to completely disappear soon after. You'd think those two hits would have given him enough momentum to at least make it through the rest of the Club Boom (which ended in 2013), if not up until Trap took over in late 2015, but he vanished just as fast as he appeared. I feel like the same thing is gonna happen to Lewis Capaldi, I'd be shocked if he had another hit after Before You Go. I think he'll still be successful in the U.K., but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being a two hit wonder in the U.S. (likely remembered as a one hit wonder, similar to how a lot of other artists had a few hits but are only remembered for their biggest one).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2021 14:39:07 GMT -5
^In exchange for that, unfortunately it seems very likely his double album will probably end up being #1 in the year-end Billboard 200. What about Drake when he drops his album later this year, considering that it will likely be a hydrogen bomb of an album (as is usual for Drake). Or what if Adele drops and sells a million the first week? I don't think Morgan has the #1 album of the year on lock.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Apr 25, 2021 14:44:28 GMT -5
I feel like the same thing is gonna happen to Lewis Capaldi, I'd be shocked if he had another hit after Before You Go. I think he'll still be successful in the U.K., but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being a two hit wonder in the U.S. (likely remembered as a one hit wonder, similar to how a lot of other artists had a few hits but are only remembered for their biggest one). I think the same for Tones & I, she'll be known for Dance Monkey worldwide and that's it but will have multiple hits in Australia.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Apr 26, 2021 5:36:10 GMT -5
Blinding Lights The song can get to around 600,000 total chart points before an album bomb in late May or June knocks it into recurrency. Year end top ten is likely, but a huge late spring/summer smash with longevity through the fall can pass it. Blinding Lights' only hope is a third wind, but it would have to give the song a big enough boost to stand against late spring-fall hits and a possibly inevitable viral behemoth. Welp, the BBMA takes place on May 23 and the iHeartradio awards on May 27. I suspect that Blinding Lights will win a lot of the awards here, and after the Grammys debacle, we may even get a performance by Abel at the BBMA. This should give BL enough of a boost to survive Olivia's album release, and could be the start of its third wind.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Apr 26, 2021 11:46:08 GMT -5
Another song that will unfortunately not make the year end.
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lukulele
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Post by lukulele on Apr 26, 2021 13:10:12 GMT -5
Polo G's gonna have a #1 this year I'll put money on it. Looks like I was right
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