2021 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 9)

[Deleted]

Nov 30, 2020 15:06:11 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Who else is ready for 2026 when the entire top 50 in December will be Christmas songs

I think Billboard will have removed Christmas songs from the Hot 100 by that point (especially if it gets that bad).

[sirskimask]

Nov 30, 2020 9:09:56 GMT -5 gikem said:

Nov 30, 2020 2:15:23 GMT -5 sirskimask said:

Potential Repeats from the 2020 Year-End List - Week 2 (November 28, 2020)
(I really gotta stop doing these last minute lol)

Looking at predictions for this week and speculating the Bad Bunny album bomb and continued rise of Christmas music next week, I think both WHATS POPPIN and One Of Them Girls will exit the week of 12/12, and possibly even Watermelon Sugar, Said Sum, and ily, depending on where everything falls.

A lot of songs will be pushed out due to Christmas music, however I'm basing my odds on the assumption that Billboard will do the same thing they did last year and allow songs that were forced off the charts due to the holidays to re-enter, like they did with Suge, I Don't care, Sucker, etc. 

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^^I would expect the next peak of Christmas songs in the Hot 100 after this year would be in 2025, in which the streaming and digital song sales tracking weeks end on Christmas itself. This year missed out on that because of it being a leap year.

[Groovy]

I assume even though it's not at 1, Mood is still currently topping the year end chart.

[phieaglesfan712]

Nov 30, 2020 23:10:38 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

^^I would expect the next peak of Christmas songs in the Hot 100 after this year would be in 2025, in which the streaming and digital song sales tracking weeks end on Christmas itself. This year missed out on that because of it being a leap year.

We will get a year comparable to 2019 in 2024, when Christmas falls on a Wednesday (provided that Christmas music is still being allowed to chart at that point). It is not a given that Christmas music will be even bigger in 2024 than 2019. There is a chance that Christmas music consumption plateaus by then, and the 2024 peaks are similar, and in some cases below, that of 2019. (We are seeing this right now with Thriller, whose 2019 peak fell below 2013, and 2020 peak fell below 2015. If some plateauing is already happening with Halloween songs, then it could be just a matter of time that the same thing happens to Christmas music.)

[nathanalbright]

This is true, but even if Christmas consumption plateaus in the near future, there will still be a lot of stats being racked up by Christmas songs regarding longevity. As it stands, there are Christmas songs with 39, 34, and 31 weeks on the chart that are likely to find their positions in all-time song rankings rise with continued years of several weeks charting.

[Groovy]

What are the odds that Dicked Down in Dallas gonna be a hit in 2021?

[mikerivera]

Um, as someone who lives in the DFW metroplex, that’s not a song I’ve ever heard of...but now I’m curious

[Groovy]

Dec 1, 2020 16:29:31 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Um, as someone who lives in the DFW metroplex, that’s not a song I’ve ever heard of...but now I’m curious

It's number 1 on iTunes so I was curious and gave it a listen and it's not a bad song at all. 

[Groovy]

How will Billboard discontinuing on-demand streaming affect the charts now?

[mikerivera]

Where did you hear they were doing that? I’m looking it up, and I can’t find anything saying Billboard won’t count OD streaming anymore

[kingvavis]

Dec 1, 2020 18:39:00 GMT -5 Groovy said:

How will Billboard discontinuing on-demand streaming affect the charts now?

They only stopped doing the on-demand chart.

[Groovy]

As everyday passes by, the more I believe WAP won't be on the 2021 year-end, the radio dropped this, the sales are collapsing and it's dropping in streams everyday.

[Deleted]

Dec 2, 2020 10:02:21 GMT -5 Groovy said:

As everyday passes by, the more I believe WAP won't be on the 2021 year-end, the radio dropped this, the sales are collapsing and it's dropping in streams everyday.

I think it'll make it, but probably in the Bottom 20 or so. Same with I Hope and Dynamite.

[gikem]

Dec 2, 2020 12:56:20 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

Dec 2, 2020 10:02:21 GMT -5 Groovy said:

As everyday passes by, the more I believe WAP won't be on the 2021 year-end, the radio dropped this, the sales are collapsing and it's dropping in streams everyday.

I think it'll make it, but probably in the Bottom 20 or so. Same with I Hope and Dynamite.

I still think I Hope will make it, it should easily reach 52 weeks and will probably drop out in mid-late February.

The other two are a matter of wait-and-see for me. They could drop out too early, or they could last just long enough to make it.

[PositivityMaster48]

2021 Billboard Year-End Predictions (Week 3/52)
(12/05/2020)
Locked: Mood
# Song Artist Points
1 “Mood” 24KGoldn ft. Iann Dior 9,760
2 “Positions” Ariana Grande 6,750
3 “I Hope” Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth 6,300
4 “Laugh Now Cry Later” Drake ft. Lil Durk 6,060
5 “Holy” Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper 5,730
6 “Dynamite” BTS 5,690
7 “Blinding Lights” The Weeknd 5,640
8 “Lemonade” Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV 5,570
9 “Dakiti” Bad Bunny ft. Jhay Cortez 5,090
10 “Therefore I Am” Billie Eilish 4,970
11 “For The Night” Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & Dababy 4,950
12 “Savage Love” Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo 4,900
13 “Go Crazy” Chris Brown ft. Young Thug 4,800
14 “Kings & Queens” Ava Max 4,640
15 “WAP” Cardi B ft. Megan Thee Stallion 4,490
16 “More Than My Hometown” Morgan Wallen 4,350
17 “ROCKSTAR” Dababy ft. Roddy Ricch 4,340
18 “Before You Go” Lewis Capaldi 4,240
19 “Be Like That” Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee & Khalid 4,080
20 “Hawai” Maluma ft. The Weeknd 4,040
21 “Levitating” Dua Lipa ft. Dababy 3,910
22 “Watermelon Sugar” Harry Styles 3,870
23 “Bang!” AJR 3,820
24 “Lonely” Justin Bieber & benny blanco 3,810
25 “Life Goes On” BTS 3,780
26 “ily (i love you baby)” Surf Mesa ft. Emilee 3,770
27 “Said Sum” Moneybagg Yo 3,700
28 “34+35” Ariana Grande 3,590
29 “WHAT’S POPPIN” Jack Harlow ft. Dababy, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne 3,530
30 “What You Know About Love” Pop Smoke 3,410
31 “One Of Them Girls” Lee Brice 3,370
32 “One Beer” Hardy ft. Lauren Alaina & Devin Dawson 3,330
33 “Love You Like I Used To” Russell Dickerson 3,170
34 “Pretty Heart” Parker McCollum 3,160
35 “Forever After All” Luke Combs 3,150
36 “Happy Anywhere” Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani 3,130
37 “Starting Over” Chris Stapleton 3,040
38 “Better Together” Luke Combs 3,020
39 “Wonder” Shawn Mendes 2,960
40 “All I Want For Christmas Is You” Mariah Carey 2,850
41 “Come & Go” Juice WRLD ft. Marshmello 2,770
42 “Diamonds” Sam Smith 2,730
43 “Big, Big Plans” Chris Lane 2,710
44 “pov” Ariana Grande 2,630
45 “I Should Probably Go To Bed” Dan + Shay 2,520
46 “You Broke Me First” Tate McRae 2,450
47 “Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree” Brenda Lee 2,400
48 “Ain’t Always The Cowboy” Jon Pardi 2,370
49 “Mr. Right Now” 21 Savage & Metro Boomin ft. Drake 2,320
50 “Took Her To The O” King Von 2,250
51 “7 Summers” Morgan Wallen 2,240
52 “Midnight Sky” Miley Cyrus 2,230
53 “My Ex’s Best Friend” Machine Gun Kelly ft. Blackbear 2,200
54 “FRANCHISE” Travis Scott ft. Young Thug & M.I.A 2,170
55 “Don’t Stop” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Young Thug 2,070
56 “Got What I Got” Jason Aldean 2,060
57 “HOLIDAY” Lil Nas X 1,970
58 “Throat Baby (Go Baby)” BRS Kash 1,960
59 “Monster” Shawn Mendes ft. Justin Bieber 1,930
60 “U 2 Luv” Ne-Yo ft. Jeremih 1,880
61 “Good Time” Niko Moon 1,860
62 “Champagne Night” Lady A 1,850
63 “Hit Different” SZA ft. Ty Dolla Sign 1,850
64 “Whoopty” CJ 1,820
65 “Golden” Harry Styles 1,810
66 “Martin & Gina” Polo G 1,810
67 “Adore You” Harry Styles 1,800
68 “Body” Megan Thee Stallion 1,780
69 “Hole In The Bottle” Kelsea Ballerini 1,760
70 “Blue & Grey” BTS 1,730
71 “Drankin N Smokin” Future & Lil Uzi Vert 1,720
72 “Heather” Conan Gray 1,680
73 “Stay” BTS 1,420
74 “Somebody’s Problem” Morgan Wallen 1,340
75 “Jingle Bell Rock” Bobby Helms 1,210
76 “Blind” Dababy ft. Young Thug 1,160
77 “Put Your Records On” Ritt Momney 1,140
78 “It’s The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year” Andy Williams 1,120
79 “Last Christmas” Wham! 1,060
80 “Feliz Navidad” Jose Feliciano 1,030
81 “Still Goin Down” Morgan Wallen 1,010
82 “The Christmas Song” Nat King Cole 990
83 “Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Dean Martin 990
84 “Stripes Like Burberry” Future & Lil Uzi Vert 950
85 “Prisoner” Miley Cyrus ft. Dua Lipa 930
86 “That’s It” Future & Lil Uzi Vert 860
87 “Fly To My Room” BTS 710
88 “Telepathy” BTS 690
89 “Cry Baby” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Dababy 690
90 “Shots Fired” Megan Thee Stallion 600

[Groovy]

So now we can finally do 2021 year end predictions now that the 2020 charts have been released.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

We can also look at what's getting caught in between years. Imma revisit my original post and give updates on the songs

Oct 20, 2020 9:59:30 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Songs with Chances of getting Caught in between years:

Better Together - Literally nothing has changed. It's still heads or tails as to whether or not it'll make it but considering Luke Combs' streak, I say it's safe to bet it'll make it

Heather - well looks like I was right about radio being too little too late. There is a chance it could rebound but with how much it stalled I think this one is dead

you broke me first - still in the same positions as it was a few weeks ago. It's getting airplay and again, if not for Christmas it would be Top 40. I think this could linger

7 Summers - I'm still waiting for More Than My Hometown's run to end so this can climb back up the charts.

Midnight Sky - well RIP to one of the best pop songs of the year. With the album impact being this week and with the incoming Christmas freeze, yet another great Miley song is going to miss the year-end

24 - left a few weeks ago so yeah, not making it.

my ex's best friend - the radio has picked up on this so I hope it's not too late for this song. Really hoping it survives Christmas season

Happy Anywhere/Love You Like I Used To/I Should Probably Go to Bed/Some Girls - Some Girls is definitely missing. Dan + Shay are losing airplay, as are Russ Dickerson and Blake Shelton, all of these songs have peaked so bye bye

Runnin/Mr. Right Now - Runnin left this week so it's definitely out of the running. Heads or tails on Mr. Right Now though, it's surprisingly high on radio but the streaming's peaked. Maybe a video could help it though.

What You Know Bout Love - It's lost a bunch of week but it's still surprisingly strong on streaming and it's starting to get airplay so this may make it after all

Kings & Queens - it's still a monster on airplay so I expect this to make next year's list

BANG! - It lost 20 weeks but the radio is still super strong. I wouldn't be surprised if it sneaks into next year's list but can we just not?

FRANCHISE - welp, looks like this is missing the year-end. Streaming and radio are stalling out.

Wonder - Well to my shock, it looks like this will be caught between years. It could rebound with the album but with it underperforming and them putting all their eggs into pushing Monster, it's airplay is hemorrhaging. This might be Shawn's weakest era yet. 

Circles - It. DID. DIE!

As for songs not mentioned

Golden - this is still making a good run on radio and once the Winter Freeze is over, I can see this lurking around the Top 40. Don't expect a Top 10 but then again, I thought the same thing with Adore You.

Diamonds - it's lost 10 weeks of it's run and airplay is literally the only keeping it alive at this point. This may sneak in if it survives Christmas but again, I don't know

Forever After All - doesn't have radio yet, they might be waiting for Better Together to end

One Beer - sadly airplay peaked so this may be it's last week. Sad as it was a really good song but I guess if Nashville can't get behind More Hears Than Mine - another good country song - but can get behind other country gunk, nothing we can do about it.

Life Goes On - we all know the sales will be gone next week but ARMY stans have shown they're able to maintain enough sales for a few weeks. If BTS does any remix bundle, this may not be a one time song. That said, radio won't touch this so it will need all the sales it can get.

Tyler Herro - I think this might be safe? Still good streaming even with all the Christmas songs

Whoopty - well we need one stupid rap song to go viral this year and looks like we found our first. If it weren't for Christmas, this would be rising up the charts

Big, Big Plans - good radio, nothing else. *See Diamonds*

Starting Over - sadly looks like 'Say Something' will remain Stapleton's only year-end hit yet.

Hawai - I think even with The Weeknd remix, this will get caught between years. Radio isn't there and the streaming really fell off

Lonely - I'm so LooOoooOoonely

Levitating - still rising in airplay and streaming is decent so safe.

Lemonade - once the Christmas freeze is over, this will rule the Top 5 for a bit

[rockgolf]

Well, now that Billboard has announced the cut-off of the 2020 year end as Nov 14, 2020, we can presume the 2021 Billboard calendar year begins with the Nov 21 chart.

So here's my first post for the 2021 Billboard top 100 of the year up to and including the week of Dec 5, 2020.

[After Minutes]

In the last four years, Posty scored:

-6 year-end top 10 entries
-3 year-end top 5 entries
-2 #2 YE hits (both in the last two years)

He's 25.

[feldspar905]

Songs i feel like will get caught between years (just fuckin around,not really based on data) : Diamonds,Ain't always the cowboy ,You broke me first,my ex's best friend,FRANCHISE,Hit Different,I should probably go to bed,pretty heart

[gs]

TOTC's 2021 Hot 100 Year-End Predictions: Week 3

[dremolus - solarpunk]

If Post returns at the start of 2021 I think he may finally get that year-end number one

[sirskimask]

Potential Repeats from the 2020 Year-End List - Week 3 (December 5, 2020)

Very Likely
Mood
I Hope
Laugh Now Cry Later
Blinding Lights

Likely
Dynamite
For the Night

Possible
Go Crazy
Savage Love
More Than My Hometown*
WAP
ROCKSTAR
Before You Go
Be Like That
WHATS POPPIN

Unlikely
ily
Said Sum*
Watermelon Sugar
One Of Them Girls

Very Unlikely


Virtually No Chance
Come & Go
Wishing Well
POPSTAR

OUT: Got What I Want (will not repeat), Adore You (will not repeat), The Woo (will not repeat), Mood Swings (will not repeat)

NOTE: Added 'More Than My Hometown' and 'Said Sum' as they have officially made it onto the 2020 Year-End Hot 100.
NOTE: I chose not to include 'All I Want For Christmas Is You' because it's kind of a special case. Based on points it'll probably repeat, but whether Billboard will allow it to or not remains to be seen. 

DISCUSSION:
Two Pop Smoke leftovers exit as well as the long running 'Adore You', which was just shy of a full 52 weeks. 'Watermelon Sugar' looks to be on its way out soon as well, though it may reenter once the Christmas bomb is over so it's still a bit early. Upgraded 'WHATS POPPIN' from unlikely to possible as the upcoming album boost should be enough to keep it around a bit longer.

[n13l5]

Can someone explain how Post malone was artist of the year in 2020 even though he didnt release anything and only had one big hit? How is he above the weeknd, roddy ricch, harry styles and pop smoke?

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

n13l5 It's definitely weird - I admit. I think it's probably a mix of "Circles" being really massive throughout the chart year (November 2019 - November 2020), "Hollywood's Bleeding" never leaving the top 15 on the Billboard 200 (+ it was released before all these projects), and just overall consistency on radio and streaming, the latter also adding "Sunflower" to the mix as well as other recurrent songs.

So I guess timing played the bigger role here, even if 2020 was more the year of The Weeknd and Roddy Ricch.

Oh, and his three studio albums all ended within the Top 45 on the Year-End - that must have counted for something as well.

[musicspy]

Dec 3, 2020 17:39:13 GMT -5 feldspar905 said:

Songs i feel like will get caught between years (just f**kin around,not really based on data) : Diamonds,Ain't always the cowboy ,You broke me first,my ex's best friend,FRANCHISE,Hit Different,I should probably go to bed,pretty heart

Only rooting for MGK to make it. That song is just worh it

[Harx]

Blinding Lights will not only repeat, it will be the #1 second year in a row

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Dec 4, 2020 5:15:28 GMT -5 Lost In Musical Reverie said:

n13l5 It's definitely weird - I admit. I think it's probably a mix of "Circles" being really massive throughout the chart year (November 2019 - November 2020), "Hollywood's Bleeding" never leaving the top 15 on the Billboard 200 (+ it was released before all these projects), and just overall consistency on radio and streaming, the latter also adding "Sunflower" to the mix as well as other recurrent songs.

So I guess timing played the bigger role here, even if 2020 was more the year of The Weeknd and Roddy Ricch.

Oh, and his three studio albums all ended within the Top 45 on the Year-End - that must have counted for something as well.

So, the most simple way I see how he managed this is how the chart is calculated:

How This Chart Works

Radio Airplay + Sales Data + Streaming Data = TOP ARTISTS

Post was the #1 in Billboard 200 Artists and #8 in the Hot 100 Artists, while The Weeknd was #8 and #1, respectively. Given that streaming for albums is far more valuable than streaming for Hot 100 songs because all the tracks from the album are counted, it is easy to see how that could have happened. The Weeknd did edge Post in Streaming Song Artists, Radio Songs Artists, Digital Song Sales Artists and Top Album Artists, but you can't discount all the streaming that all those songs from Post's three albums had that was not necessarily reflected in Streaming Songs.

[dovahduck]

Dec 4, 2020 5:25:57 GMT -5 Harx said:

Blinding Lights will not only repeat, it will be the #1 second year in a row

There is nothing but "Blinding Lights"... There is nothing but "Blinding Lights"... There is nothing but "Blinding Lights"...
There is nothing but "Blinding Lights"... There is nothing but "Blinding Lights"...