rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Jul 14, 2021 9:54:20 GMT -5
Predix! These, for the chart week of July 17, 2021. First, how the list looks year-to-date: No, Without You did not make an 87 point leap. I finally combined the points for the two different credits (with & without Miley) together.
Levitating is within 200 points of Mood, and could take over the current #1 song of the year as soon as next week, but two weeks is likelier.
And now, the extended forecast: assume all charting songs retain 95% of previous week's value until they fall out of the top 50 or year-end: EST Year end | Song | Artist | YE Est Pts | 1 | Levitating | Dua Lipa ft. DaBaby | 11067 | 2 | Blinding Lights | The Weeknd | 8672 | 3 | Mood | 24kGoldn ft. iann dior | 8498 | 4 | Save Your Tears | The Weeknd & Ariana Grande | 8350 | 5 | Butter | BTS | 7554 | 6 | Leave The Door Open | Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) | 7389 | 7 | Drivers License | Olivia Rodrigo | 7162 | 8 | Good 4 U | Olivia Rodrigo | 6618 | 9 | Peaches | Justin Bieber ft. Daniel Caesar & Giveon | 6453 | 10 | Montero (Call Me By Your Name) | Lil Nas X | 6214 | 11 | Kiss Me More | Doja Cat ft. SZA | 5978 | 12 | Positions | Ariana Grande | 5621 | 13 | Without You | The Kid LAROI | 5392 | 14 | Astronaut In The Ocean | Masked Wolf | 5213 | 15 | Forever After All | Luke Combs | 5122 | 16 | Deja Vu | Olivia Rodrigo | 5010 | 17 | 34+35 | Ariana Grande | 4985 | 18 | Go Crazy | Chris Brown & Young Thug | 4925 | 19 | What You Know Bout Love | Pop Smoke | 4842 | 20 | Best Friend | Saweetie ft. Doja Cat | 4539 | 21 | Up | Cardi B | 4419 | 22 | Rapstar | Polo G | 4258 | 23 | Therefore I Am | Billie Eilish | 4247 | 24 | My Ex's Best Friend | Machine Gun Kelly X blackbear | 4186 | 25 | Dakiti | Bad Bunny & Jhay Cortez | 4182 | 26 | Heartbreak Anniversary | Giveon | 4104 | 27 | For The Night | Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & DaBaby | 3909 | 28 | Holy | Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper | 3523 | 29 | Calling My Phone | Lil Tjay ft. 6LACK | 3468 | 30 | Beautiful Mistakes | Maroon 5 ft. Megan Thee Stallion | 3453 | 31 | Heat Waves | Glass Animals | 3358 | 32 | You Broke Me First. | Tate McRae | 3329 | 33 | On Me | Lil Baby | 3299 | 34 | I Hope | Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth | 3240 | 35 | Wants And Needs | Drake ft. Lil Baby | 3206 | 36 | Back In Blood | Pooh Shiesty ft. Lil Durk | 3137 | 37 | Dynamite | BTS | 3010 | 38 | Laugh Now Cry Later | Drake ft. Lil Durk | 3007 | 39 | Beat Box | SpotemGottem ft. Pooh Shiesty Or DaBaby | 2982 | 40 | Good Days | SZA | 2913 | 41 | Bad Habits | Ed Sheeran | 2801 | 42 | Whoopty | CJ | 2749 | 43 | Lemonade | Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV | 2709 | 44 | Bang! | AJR | 2667 | 45 | You're Mines Still | Yung Bleu ft. Drake | 2649 | 46 | Telepatia | Kali Uchis | 2623 | 47 | Better Together | Luke Combs | 2614 | 48 | Willow | Taylor Swift | 2609 | 49 | Starting Over | Chris Stapleton | 2605 | 50 | Body | Megan Thee Stallion | 2551 | 51 | The Good Ones | Gabby Barrett | 2404 | 52 | Lonely | Justin Bieber & benny blanco | 2350 | 53 | Streets | Doja Cat | 2325 | 54 | Every Chance I Get | DJ Khaled ft. Lil Baby & Lil Durk | 2286 | 55 | Famous Friends | Chris Young + Kane Brown | 2202 | 56 | Lil Bit | Nelly & Florida Georgia Line | 2115 | 57 | Anyone | Justin Bieber | 2103 | 58 | What's Next | Drake | 2080 | 59 | Thot $#it | Megan Thee Stallion | 2063 | 60 | Kings & Queens | Ava Max | 2004 | 61 | Time Today | Moneybagg Yo | 1997 | 62 | Track Star | Mooski | 1978 | 63 | What's Your Country Song | Thomas Rhett | 1956 | 64 | No More Parties | Coi Leray ft. Lil Durk | 1918 | 65 | All I Want For Christmas Is You | Mariah Carey | 1916 | 66 | Cry Baby | Megan Thee Stallion ft. DaBaby | 1904 | 67 | Good Time | Niko Moon | 1815 | 68 | Glad You Exist | Dan + Shay | 1782 | 69 | Just The Way | Parmalee x Blanco Brown | 1779 | 70 | You Right | Doja Cat & The Weeknd | 1765 | 71 | Throat Baby (Go Baby) | BRS Kash | 1708 | 71 | We're Good | Dua Lipa | 1708 | 73 | Hell Of A View | Eric Church | 1703 | 74 | pov | Ariana Grande | 1700 | 75 | Put Your Records On | Ritt Momney | 1654 | 76 | Fancy Like | Walker Hayes | 1649 | 77 | Wockesha | Moneybagg Yo | 1638 | 78 | Goosebumps | Travis Scott & HVME | 1635 | 79 | Rockstar | DaBaby ft. Roddy Ricch | 1627 | 80 | Damage | H.E.R. | 1620 | 81 | Before You Go | Lewis Capaldi | 1611 | 82 | Am I The Only One | Aaron Lewis | 1581 | 83 | Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree | Brenda Lee | 1571 | 84 | More Than My Hometown | Morgan Wallen | 1550 | 85 | Single Saturday Night | Cole Swindell | 1521 | 86 | Breaking Up Was Easy In The 90's | Sam Hunt | 1498 | 87 | Down To One | Luke Bryan | 1497 | 88 | Wasted On You | Morgan Wallen | 1495 | 89 | Traitor | Olivia Rodrigo | 1488 | 90 | Yonaguni | Bad Bunny | 1488 | 91 | Leave Before You Love Me | Marshmello X Jonas Brothers | 1433 | 92 | Made For You | Jake Owen | 1431 | 93 | Blame It On You | Jason Aldean | 1411 | 94 | Almost Maybes | Jordan Davis | 1352 | 95 | Whats Poppin | Jack Harlow ft. DaBaby, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne | 1344 | 95 | Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat) | Jawsh 685 x Jason Derulo | 1344 | 97 | WAP | Cardi B ft. Megan Thee Stallion | 1331 | 98 | Gone | Dierks Bentley | 1330 | 99 | Settling Down | Miranda Lambert | 1320 | 100 | One Too Many | Keith Urban Duet With P!nk | 1303 |
Songs that stay steady or climb the chart will improve year-end rankings. Both Butter and Good 4 U are improving, and Bad Habits looks for now to be in the top 50 of the year. A big drop next week would certainly effect that.
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GP
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Post by GP on Jul 14, 2021 15:04:38 GMT -5
wait do we think Levitating can go longer than 52 weeks?
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jul 14, 2021 15:12:51 GMT -5
wait do we think Levitating can go longer than 52 weeks? I think so, but the Christmas season is going to cut its run short of 60 weeks.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jul 14, 2021 16:38:03 GMT -5
So Levitating is in week 40. How long do we think it lasts on the charts? I’m thinking about 70 weeks total The Christmas season is going to prevent Levitating from getting there. It also doesn't help that Levitating has gone recurrent on pop radio already. It's radio fall will not be as gentle as Blinding Lights, which was kept on pop radio until late February/early March. I'm going to say 57 weeks, and that would put us to the 11/13 chart. Keep in mind, Circles fell off the 11/14/2020 chart. blinding lights returned after the christmas season so levitating can too
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gs
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Post by gs on Jul 15, 2021 1:23:18 GMT -5
I think starting from January 16 chart makes more sense for the actual year, due to tracking starting on January 1st. I totally get this argument (and back when the TOTC website still existed, there was an option for this on their YE page), but the main reason I prefer we start with the first dated chart of 2021 as opposed to a YTD system is because the way Billboard’s tracking weeks have been applied throughout their history has been incredibly inconsistent. At one point in the 2010s (after the Global Release Day shift to Friday in mid-2015 but before Billboard recalibrated the chart weeks in late 2017), the tracking week for a certain chart started a little over three weeks before the appropriate chart’s date. Doing it based on the chart date creates consistency across all the Jan.-Dec. YEs made so far and avoids any confusing anomalies. I just find it strange that you'd want to create a different tracking period from Billboard that's still based on yet another one of their flawed methods. If you're going to do it differently, I would do it correctly, regardless of how past YEs got calculated. There's always a first for something. That said, their change of airplay tracking made me think they could potentially change the YE to be YTD. Based on how they do Songs of the Summer, in which it's based on the tracking week Memorial Day falls on, it seems like it'd be more likely to start from the January 16 chart.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Jul 15, 2021 7:00:30 GMT -5
Forgot to post this
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Jul 15, 2021 8:07:29 GMT -5
It feels weird that Wothout You is on the verge of breaking in to the top 10, it most likely won’t get there but it doesn’t feel like it should be that high.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Jul 15, 2021 9:14:44 GMT -5
I totally get this argument (and back when the TOTC website still existed, there was an option for this on their YE page), but the main reason I prefer we start with the first dated chart of 2021 as opposed to a YTD system is because the way Billboard’s tracking weeks have been applied throughout their history has been incredibly inconsistent. At one point in the 2010s (after the Global Release Day shift to Friday in mid-2015 but before Billboard recalibrated the chart weeks in late 2017), the tracking week for a certain chart started a little over three weeks before the appropriate chart’s date. Doing it based on the chart date creates consistency across all the Jan.-Dec. YEs made so far and avoids any confusing anomalies. I just find it strange that you'd want to create a different tracking period from Billboard that's still based on yet another one of their flawed methods. If you're going to do it differently, I would do it correctly, regardless of how past YEs got calculated. There's always a first for something. That said, their change of airplay tracking made me think they could potentially change the YE to be YTD. Based on how they do Songs of the Summer, in which it's based on the tracking week Memorial Day falls on, it seems like it'd be more likely to start from the January 16 chart. The thing is that the tracking week rarely aligns with the actual start of the new year (it did this year, but that’s not common). So absent of having the internal daily calculations, it’s impossible to create a truly YTD chart based on weekly points. The reason I picked chart dates as the method is 1) consistency 2) Billboard constantly changed the tracking weeks throughout its history, and it’s hard to get information about that for older charts. So even if I tried, there’s still a good chance I get it wrong 3) the whole justification for Billboard moving the cutoff date so far in advance of the year was that they wanted to get the year end chart out by their final chart publication of the year. And I never understood why they couldn’t just have a building chart ready to publish that includes their final publication of the year. So essentially, the J-D format gives a realistic outlook for Billboard to accomplish that goal without totally distorting what the year actually looked like. Just look at the 2020 chart I published last year; it may not include the final two weeks of 2020, but does it feel misrepresentative of what the year looked like? Sure, there would be a few changes, but the only difference in terms of what actually makes it is that What You Know Bout Love probably squeezes onto the chart, and 2019 songs like Señorita and Bad Guy *might* have missed.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jul 15, 2021 9:51:56 GMT -5
It feels weird that Wothout You is on the verge of breaking in to the top 10, it most likely won’t get there but it doesn’t feel like it should be that high. Given that it has charted 31 out of the 35 weeks to date, it isn't surprising. For sake of comparison, My Ex's Best Friend has charted all of them, but has been below Without You in terms of positions, most of the time since the latter's debut. Yet the gap between the two songs is not as great as one would think.
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jthentic
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Post by jthentic on Jul 15, 2021 10:10:58 GMT -5
It feels weird that Wothout You is on the verge of breaking in to the top 10, it most likely won’t get there but it doesn’t feel like it should be that high. Given that it has charted 31 out of the 35 weeks to date, it isn't surprising. For sake of comparison, My Ex's Best Friend has charted all of them, but has been below Without You in terms of positions, most of the time since the latter's debut. Yet the gap between the two songs is not as great as one would think. If MEBF had better Playlisting/ a remix, things would be super diff
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jul 15, 2021 10:24:35 GMT -5
MEBF is a sleeper hit that had a nice run, but in the past few weeks, it feels like that song has overstayed its welcome on the chart. Thank goodness for Pop Smoke releasing an album tomorrow because it eliminates the chances of it limping to 52 weeks.
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Jul 15, 2021 14:52:44 GMT -5
MEBF feels ancient at this point, I remember it peaked at #1 on my personal chart in October and then it sorta fell off months later. But seeing that it didn't actually peak on the Hot 100 until like a month ago is crazy. I guess it sorta lines up with blackbear's big hit last year, debuted and took months to reach it's peak. I remember being over hot girl bummer too once it reached it's peak of #11.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Jul 15, 2021 15:40:39 GMT -5
Honestly, it feels weird that it’s not only MGK’s biggest hit but also the biggest hit off of Tickets to My Downfall, to me bloody valentine is bigger and it didn’t start charting until the album did and it’s been out for about 5 months before MEBF came out.
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atg
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Post by atg on Jul 15, 2021 20:10:47 GMT -5
It feels weird that Wothout You is on the verge of breaking in to the top 10, it most likely won’t get there but it doesn’t feel like it should be that high. I wished Tell Me Why would’ve been the big hit instead of Without You as that song is way better. At least Stay is the best song The Kid and JB released this decade so far for the both of them and it might actually.. stay around. Maybe that’s the song that actually cracks the top 10 if it pulls decent points.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Jul 15, 2021 22:14:39 GMT -5
How many Pop Smoke tracks are expected to make top 50 debuts? Remember that these are basically songs he rejected from his debut.
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crazyb
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Post by crazyb on Jul 16, 2021 1:49:54 GMT -5
Well, Butter single handedly destroyed my interest in the charts, I hope the BTS stans are happy with themselves Ever since I discovered the Hot 100 back in 2013 I haven't stop following it. In the last weeks though, having the same song be scammed in the number 1 spot has truly killed any motivation to continue checking the hot 100 often. I still hope Billboard changes the rules around, but I know Bts brings billboard clicks so my optimistic is very low.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jul 16, 2021 2:19:30 GMT -5
We seem to have faded a couple terrible country songs but now Almost Maybes is threatening us by being 3 weeks away and still gaining radio. Although honestly it's not an outright disaster like the last 3 Jordan Davis songs it's just kinda bland but still would prefer to see this evaporate Ok so this story has a happy ending but as one hydra head falls another rises up: Blame It On You. Which is considerably worse than Almost Maybes an absolutely trash song like if people thought last year's Jason Aldean song was bad wait until you hear this tuneless bucket of sewage. Make it fall please!
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Jul 16, 2021 6:44:52 GMT -5
We seem to have faded a couple terrible country songs but now Almost Maybes is threatening us by being 3 weeks away and still gaining radio. Although honestly it's not an outright disaster like the last 3 Jordan Davis songs it's just kinda bland but still would prefer to see this evaporate Ok so this story has a happy ending but as one hydra head falls another rises up: Blame It On You. Which is considerably worse than Almost Maybes an absolutely trash song like if people thought last year's Jason Aldean song was bad wait until you hear this tuneless bucket of sewage. Make it fall please! BIOY should peak on country radio this Sunday. Whether it will make the cut or not will depend on how fast its descent is.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Jul 16, 2021 6:47:28 GMT -5
Meh, not a fan of Jason Aldean, but Blame it on You isn’t that bad. Being a tuneless bucket of sewage is the standard for all of his songs these days, so at least this one comes with not bad lyrics. I wouldn’t care one way or another if it made the YE. Which is more than I can say about any of his other singles since...2018? Remind me why we can’t get rid of Aldean again? Do we really need the Dirt Road Anthem guy spreading his joyless, tuneless macho posturing all over the radio every single year?
If you want an alternative to him, go listen to You Should Probably Leave. Chris Stapleton really outdid himself with this one.
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Post by kingscouser on Jul 16, 2021 11:04:13 GMT -5
I don't think Butter will end the year in the top 10. The BTS Stans are going to push and push PTD now and forget about Butter almost completely. Its gonna free fall in the next few weeks I predict. I wonder what rule Billboard is going to implement to stop the Mass Buying hysteria, if they are at all.
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Post by xtynaaguilera99 on Jul 17, 2021 9:04:11 GMT -5
The fact that, despite being at #1 for seven weeks, Butter is not bigger than “good 4 u” in any shape or form makes me laugh. The meaning of a #1 hit had been completely lost.
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Post by Henry Suárez on Jul 17, 2021 15:48:26 GMT -5
I wonder where Butter will land on YE, I'd expect top 25 at least.
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oliviafan101
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Post by oliviafan101 on Jul 18, 2021 0:23:20 GMT -5
The fact that, despite being at #1 for seven weeks, Butter is not bigger than “good 4 u” in any shape or form makes me laugh. The meaning of a #1 hit had been completely lost. One More Night blocked Gangnam Style from #1. Harlem Shake blocked some songs from more weeks at #1. Some album I don’t remember blocked Blackout from #1 on the Billboard 200. This isn’t a new thing. Do you know that if you take out BOMT and her post-Circus singles, Britney Spears has a worse chart history than 21 Savage or Lil Baby? That’s how bad she was blocked in the 2000s. Saying that the meaning of a #1 hit is completely lost is like saying that politics ruined football/soccer.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Jul 18, 2021 6:26:42 GMT -5
The fact that, despite being at #1 for seven weeks, Butter is not bigger than “good 4 u” in any shape or form makes me laugh. The meaning of a #1 hit had been completely lost. One More Night blocked Gangnam Style from #1. Harlem Shake blocked some songs from more weeks at #1. Some album I don’t remember blocked Blackout from #1 on the Billboard 200. This isn’t a new thing. Do you know that if you take out BOMT and her post-Circus singles, Britney Spears has a worse chart history than 21 Savage or Lil Baby? That’s how bad she was blocked in the 2000s. Saying that the meaning of a #1 hit is completely lost is like saying that politics ruined football/soccer. And also ABBA, one of the biggest groups of all time, has the same amount of #1's on the Hot 100 as 6ix9ine. And Queen only had 2.
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Post by xtynaaguilera99 on Jul 18, 2021 10:07:01 GMT -5
One More Night blocked Gangnam Style from #1. Harlem Shake blocked some songs from more weeks at #1. Some album I don’t remember blocked Blackout from #1 on the Billboard 200. This isn’t a new thing. Do you know that if you take out BOMT and her post-Circus singles, Britney Spears has a worse chart history than 21 Savage or Lil Baby? That’s how bad she was blocked in the 2000s. Saying that the meaning of a #1 hit is completely lost is like saying that politics ruined football/soccer. And also ABBA, one of the biggest groups of all time, has the same amount of #1's on the Hot 100 as 6ix9ine. And Queen only had 2. Even Spice Girls has the same amount of #1’s as 6ix9ine 😂
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Jul 18, 2021 10:56:18 GMT -5
We should consider the possibility of 3 Olivia songs in the Top 10. I definitely can see her doing Top 15, just depends on how much longer the radio grows for Deja Vu
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Jul 18, 2021 14:55:22 GMT -5
We should consider the possibility of 3 Olivia songs in the Top 10. I definitely can see her doing Top 15, just depends on how much longer the radio grows for Deja Vu I can definitely see that happening.. especially if Déjà Vu climbs on radio.. but it’ll be really close.
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jaffery
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Post by jaffery on Jul 18, 2021 17:43:40 GMT -5
Who will have the most entries, olivia?
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Jul 18, 2021 18:03:55 GMT -5
Who will have the most entries, olivia? I think Justin Bieber? If Stay makes it then he will have 5 (Stay, Peaches, Holy, Lonely, Anyone), Doja Cat could also be in contention (Kiss Me More, Best Friend, Streets, You Right, Ain't s**t), and I believe Lil Baby, Lil Durk, Ariana Grande and Megan Thee Stallion will have 4 if Thot s**t and Every Chance I Get make it, and if the Save Your Tears remix is credited. Lmk if I forgot anything Edit: Olivia will also have 4 if Traitor makes it Edit: Drake also has 4 lol
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Jul 18, 2021 18:09:47 GMT -5
Who will have the most entries, olivia? Probably will be between Drake and Justin Bieber, assuming Stay and at least one not-yet-released track from CLB make the YE along with the 4 songs they already each have. EDIT: Forgot about Doja, but it'll depend on how long You Right and Ain't S**t stick around. I get the feeling the former may get dumped sooner than expected.
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