gikem
3x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2020
Posts: 3,813
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Post by gikem on Jul 26, 2021 9:30:40 GMT -5
Uh is Settling Down gonna get the final country radio push or...? I'm worried about its year end chances now It just finished its final push yesterday. It's pretty much done and will likely not make the YE.
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 26, 2021 12:47:32 GMT -5
Big oof.
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Post by kingscouser on Jul 26, 2021 13:02:28 GMT -5
BTS at number one again. I'm fine with it at this point Good 4 U will probably be higher than it on the year end anyway.
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Groovy
6x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2017
Posts: 6,388
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Post by Groovy on Jul 27, 2021 11:22:17 GMT -5
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Post by xtynaaguilera99 on Jul 27, 2021 12:02:56 GMT -5
JANUARY/DECEMBER YEAR END - Week 31
1. LEVITATING - Dua Lipa f/ DaBaby - 7057 2. DRIVERS LICENCE - Olivia Rodrigo - 6503 3. SAVE YOUR TEARS - The Weeknd & Ariana Grande - 6294 4. BLINDING LIGHTS - The Weeknd - 5470 5. MOOD - 24kGoldn f/ iann dior - 5232 6. LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN - Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak & Silk Sonic - 5187 7. PEACHES - Justin Bieber f/ Daniel Caesar & GIVĒON - 4645 8. ASTRONAUT IN THE OCEAN - Masked Wolf - 3947 9. MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) - Lil Nas X - 3909 10. WITHOUT YOU - The Kid LAROI - 3876 11. UP - Cardi B - 3772 12. KISS ME MORE - Doja Cat f/ SZA - 3765 13. WHAT YOU KNOW BOUT LOVE - Pop Smoke - 3718 14. BUTTER - BTS - 3703 15. GOOD 4 U - Olivia Rodrigo - 3649 16. 34+35 - Ariana Grande - 3610 17. BEST FRIEND - Saweetie f/ Doja Cat - 3509 18. GO CRAZY - Chris Brown & Young Thug - 3479 19. MY EX’S BEST FRIEND - Machine Gun Kelly & blackbear - 3450 20. POSITIONS - Ariana Grande - 3375 21. FOREVER AFTER ALL - Luke Combs - 3270 22. CALLING MY PHONE - Lil Tjay & 6LACK - 3219 23. DEJA VU - Olivia Rodrigo - 3159 24. RAPSTAR - Polo G - 3106 25. THEREFORE I AM - Billie Eilish - 2930 26. HEARTBREAK ANNIVERSARY - GIVĒON - 2812 27. BACK IN BLOOD - Pooh Shiesty f/ Lil Durk - 2799 28. ON ME - Lil Baby - 2766 29. BEAT BOX - SpotemGottem - 2693 30. DÁKITI - Bad Bunny & Tjay Cortez - 2683 31. BEAUTIFUL MISTAKES - Maroon 5 & Megan Thee Stallion - 2652 32. HEAT WAVES - Glass Animals - 2567 33. FOR THE NIGHT - Pop Smoke f/ Lil Baby & DaBaby - 2537 34. YOU BROKE ME FIRST - Tate McRae - 2500 35. WANTS AND NEEDS - Drake f/ Lil Baby - 2496 36. GOOD DAYS - SZA - 2454 37. YOU’RE MINES STILL - Yung Bleu f/ Drake - 2313 38. THE GOOD ONES - Gabby Barrett - 2243 39. TELEPATÍA - Kali Uchis - 2203 40. STREETS - Doja Cat - 2097 41. WHAT’S NEXT - Drake - 2036 42. WHOOPTY - CJ - 2024 43. WILLOW - Taylor Swift - 1994 44. HOLY - Justin Bieber f/ Chance the Rapper - 1875 45. ANYONE - Justin Bieber - 1871 46. TRACK STAR - Mooski - 1866 47. TIME TODAY - MoneyBagg YO - 1856 48. STARTING OVER - Chris Stapleton - 1846 49. NO MORE PARTIES - Coi Leray f/ Lil Durk - 1808 50. WHAT’S YOUR COUNTRY SONG - Thomas Rhett - 1734
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Post by reputainbow on Jul 27, 2021 14:00:07 GMT -5
levitating is now the #1 song of 2021 according to my predictions. {JULY 2021}KEY: 1100+: Locked | 1000+: Very Likely/Near Locked | 900+: Likely | 800+: Possibly | 700+: In Consideration
1 Levitating (Dua Lipa/DaBaby) 4828 2 Mood (24Kgoldn/Iann Dior) 4719 3 Blinding Lights (The Weeknd) 4254 4 Drivers License (Olivia Rodrigo) 4018 5 Save Your Tears (The Weeknd/Ariana Grande) 3889 6 Leave the Door Open (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 3238 7 Positions (Ariana Grande) 3133 8 Go Crazy (Chris Brown/Young Thug) 2762 9 Peaches (Justin Bieber/Giveon/Daniel Caesar) 2750 10 34+35 (Ariana Grande) 2743 11 What You Know Bout Love (Pop Smoke) 2511 12 Up (Cardi B) 2508 13 My Ex's Best Friend (Machine Gun Kelly/Blackbear) 2279 14 Without You (Kid Laroi/Miley Cyrus) 2241 15 Dakiti (Bad Bunny/Jhay Cortez) 2216 16 Montero (Call Me By Your Name) (Lil Nas X) 2211 17 Therefore I Am (Billie Eilish) 2190 18 Astronaut In the Ocean (Masked Wolf) 2145 19 Butter (BTS) 2130 20 Kiss Me More (Doja Cat/SZA) 2120 21 Best Friend (Saweetie/Doja Cat) 2085 22 Forever After All (Luke Combs) 2065 23 For the Night (Pop Smoke) 2012 24 Holy (Justin Bieber/Chance the Rapper) 1987 25 Calling My Phone (Lil Tjay/6LACK) 1890 26 Good 4 U (Olivia Rodrigo) 1870 27 RAPSTAR (Polo G) 1806 28 On Me (Lil Baby) 1759 29 You Broke Me First (Tate McRae) 1744 30 I Hope (Gabby Barrett/Charlie Puth) 1726 31 Laugh Now Cry Later (Drake/Lil Durk) 1690 32 Deja Vu (Olivia Rodrigo) 1655 33 Heartbreak Anniversary (Giveon) 1644 34 Dynamite (BTS) 1637 35 Back In Blood (Pooh Shiesty/Lil Durk) 1612 36 Beat Box (Spotemgottem) 1547 37 Beautiful Mistakes (Maroon 5/Megan Thee Stallion) 1510 38 Good Days (SZA) 1499 39 Heat Waves (Glass Animals) 1451 40 Wants and Needs (Drake/Lil Baby) 1451 41 Lemonade (Internet Money/Gunna/Toliver) 1445 42 Willow (Taylor Swift) 1424 43 Bang! (AJR) 1404 44 Starting Over (Chris Stapleton) 1395 45 Whoopty (CJ) 1388 46 You're Mines Still (Yung Bleu/Drake) 1384 47 Better Together (Luke Combs) 1344 48 Telepatía (Kali Uchis) 1301 49 Body (Megan Thee Stallion) 1301 50 The Good Ones (Gabby Barrett) 1249 51 Lonely (Justin Bieber/Benny Blanco) 1235 52 Streets (Doja Cat) 1205 53 What's Next (Drake) 1135 54 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 1129 55 Anyone (Justin Bieber) 1123 56 Time Today (Moneybagg Yo) 1067 57 Kings & Queens (Ava Max) 1044 58 Track Star (Mooski) 1038 59 Cry Baby (Megan Thee Stallion/DaBaby) 1014 60 What's Your Country Song (Thomas Rhett) 1011 61 No More Parties (Coi Leray) 998 62 Good Time (Niko Moon) 945 63 POV (Ariana Grande) 938 64 Just the Way (Parmalee/Blanco Brown) 909 65 We're Good (Dua Lipa) 908 66 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 907 67 Every Chance I Get (DJ Khaled/Lil Baby/Lil Durk) 886 68 Rockstar (DaBaby/Roddy Ricch) 872 69 Before You Go (Lewis Capaldi) 861 70 Throat Baby (Brs Kash) 853 71 Famous Friends (Chris Young/Kane Brown) 842 72 Hell of a View (Eric Church) 828 73 Put Your Records On (Ritt Momney) 824 74 Goosebumps (Travis Scott/HVME) 815 75 Damage (H.E.R.) 805 76 More Than My Hometown (Morgan Wallen) 805 77 Breaking Up Was Easy In the 90's (Sam Hunt) 770 78 Lil Bit (Nelly/Florida Georgia Line) 764 79 Wockesha (Moneybagg Yo) 762 80 Glad You Exist (Dan + Shay) 753 81 Settling Down (Miranda Lambert) 750 82 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 746 83 Down to One (Luke Bryan) 737 84 What's Poppin (Jack Harlow) 734 85 Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat) (Jawsh 685/Jason Derulo) 712 86 Made for You (Jake Owen) 711 87 Gone (Dierks Bentley) 709 88 WAP (Cardi B/Megan Thee Stallion) 706 89 Wasted on You (Morgan Wallen) 698 90 Traitor (Olivia Rodrigo) 673 91 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 646 92 Diamonds (Sam Smith) 640 93 Long Live (Florida Georgia Line) 637 94 Ski (Young Stoner Life/Young Thug/Gunna) 632 95 One Too Many (Keith Urban/Pink) 628 96 My Life (J. Cole/21 Savage/Morray) 625 97 Almost Maybes (Jordan Davis) 617 98 Monster (Shawn Mendes/Justin Bieber) 593 99 Blame It On You (Jason Aldean) 585 100 Tombstone (Rod Wave) 585 103 Bad Habits (Ed Sheeran) 570 112 Yonaguni (Bad Bunny) 527 114 Favorite Crime (Olivia Rodrigo) 520 116 Happier (Olivia Rodrigo) 503 118 Single Saturday Night (Cole Swindell) 497 120 Thot s**t (Megan Thee Stallion) 490 121 Late at Night (Roddy Ricch) 489 129 Leave Before You Love Me (Marshmello/Jonas Brothers) 477 134 Todo de Ti (Rauw Alejandro) 445 136 Brutal (Olivia Rodrigo) 432 138 Straightenin (Migos) 420 144 Pemission to Dance (BTS) 380 145 Fancy Like (Walker Hayes) 364 148 Arcade (Duncan Laurence) 348 150 You Right (Doja Cat/The Weeknd) 342 152 Build a Bitch (Bella Poarch) 337 153 Drinkin' Beer. Talkin' God. Amen. (Chase Rice/Florida Georgia Line) 335 155 Stay (The Kid Laroi/Justin Bieber) 330 159 Way Less Sad (AJR) 324 171 Jealousy, Jealousy (Olivia Rodrigo) 296 173 Hats Off (Lil Baby/Lil Durk/Travis Scott) 292 177 Need to Know (Doja Cat) 280 182 Ain't s**t (Doja Cat) 274 188 Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home) (Elle King/Miranda Lambert) 259 190 Things a Man Oughta Know (Lainey Wilson) 257 191 Ball If I Want To (DaBaby) 256 193 Chasing After You (Ryan Hurd/Maren Morris) 251 198 Minimum Wage (Blake Shelton) 235 208 Beggin' (Maneskin) 204 209 Country Again (Thomas Rhett) 202 215 Wusyaname (Tyler, the Creator/YoungBoy Never Broke Again/Ty Dolla $ign) 186 218 You (Regard/Troye Sivan/Tate McRae) 179 227 AM (Nio Garcia/J Balvin/Bad Bunny) 167 228 Motley Crew (Post Malone) 166 231 Red Light Green Light (DaBaby) 157 232 Whole Lotta Money (BiA/Nicki Minaj) 156 235 Come Through (H.E.R./Chris Brown) 151 241 Fiel (Wisin/Jhay Cortez/Los Legendarios) 136 243 Twerkulator (City Girls) 128 246 We Didn't Have Much (Justin Moore) 123 251 Waves (Luke Bryan) 113 265 Am I the Only One (Aaron Lewis) 95 270 NDA (Billie Eilish) 88 273 Wild Side (Normani/Cardi B) 87 278 transparentsoul (Willow/Travis Barker) 84 279 Essence (Wizkid/Tems) 82 280 Memory (Kane Brown/blackbear) 82 320 A-O-K (Tai Verdes) 59 344 Tell the Vision (Pop Smoke/Kanye West/Pusha T) 52 348 Holy Smokes (Trippie Redd/Lil Uzi Vert) 51 359 Bout a Million (Pop Smoke/42 Dugg/21 Savage) 47 394 Woo Baby (Pop Smoke/Chris Brown) 37 395 I Was On a Boat That Day (Old Dominion) 37 422 My Boy (Elvie Shane) 32 427 Mr. Jones (Pop Smoke/Future) 30 452 You Should Probably Leave (Chris Stapleton) 24 466 More Time (Pop Smoke) 21 480 Manslaughter (Pop Smoke) 19 500 Demeanor (Pop Smoke/Dua Lipa) 15 507 2055 (Sleepy Hollow) 14 513 Cold Beer Calling My Name (Jameson Rodgers/Luke Combs) 13 521 Love Again (Dua Lipa) 12 553 30 (Pop Smoke/Bizzy Banks) 4
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 27, 2021 15:18:49 GMT -5
I just can't help but think those inverse chart predictions are going to have a tough time this year.
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gikem
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Joined: October 2020
Posts: 3,813
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Post by gikem on Jul 27, 2021 16:15:50 GMT -5
”One Too Many has passed the projected cutoff” Please keep phieaglesfan712 in your thoughts and prayers during this difficult time.
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Post by reputainbow on Jul 27, 2021 16:32:45 GMT -5
i've actually been working on a formula that isn't inverse so that songs like songs like "one too many" would actually appear in my predictions. i have nothing to base these predictions on so no amount of points is "locked". and i might need to rework some things. by the end of the year i'll know which formula is more accurate. {Other Formula}1 Levitating (Dua Lipa/DaBaby) 7997 2 Blinding Lights (The Weeknd) 7288 3 Mood (24Kgoldn/Iann Dior) 7286 4 Save Your Tears (The Weeknd/Ariana Grande) 6344 5 Drivers License (Olivia Rodrigo) 5874 6 Positions (Ariana Grande) 5244 7 Leave the Door Open (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 5072 8 Go Crazy (Chris Brown/Young Thug) 4816 9 34+35 (Ariana Grande) 4662 10 What You Know Bout Love (Pop Smoke) 4461.6 11 Peaches (Justin Bieber/Giveon/Daniel Caesar) 4418 12 Up (Cardi B) 4055 13 Without You (Kid Laroi/Miley Cyrus) 4043.8 14 My Ex's Best Friend (Machine Gun Kelly/Blackbear) 4003.4 15 Therefore I Am (Billie Eilish) 3967.8 16 Forever After All (Luke Combs) 3916.6 17 Astronaut In the Ocean (Masked Wolf) 3840 18 Dakiti (Bad Bunny/Jhay Cortez) 3835 19 Montero (Call Me By Your Name) (Lil Nas X) 3652 20 For the Night (Pop Smoke) 3635 21 Best Friend (Saweetie/Doja Cat) 3625 22 Kiss Me More (Doja Cat/SZA) 3506 23 Holy (Justin Bieber/Chance the Rapper) 3396 24 Calling My Phone (Lil Tjay/6LACK) 3367 25 You Broke Me First (Tate McRae) 3093.6 26 On Me (Lil Baby) 3031.6 27 I Hope (Gabby Barrett/Charlie Puth) 2994 28 RAPSTAR (Polo G) 2973 29 Deja Vu (Olivia Rodrigo) 2940 30 Back In Blood (Pooh Shiesty/Lil Durk) 2917.2 31 Heartbreak Anniversary (Giveon) 2901.6 32 Laugh Now Cry Later (Drake/Lil Durk) 2878 33 Good 4 U (Olivia Rodrigo) 2856 34 Beat Box (Spotemgottem) 2800.8 35 Dynamite (BTS) 2792 36 Heat Waves (Glass Animals) 2676.2 37 Beautiful Mistakes (Maroon 5/Megan Thee Stallion) 2651.8 38 Good Days (SZA) 2632.8 39 Butter (BTS) 2619 40 Whoopty (CJ) 2573.8 41 Lemonade (Internet Money/Gunna/Toliver) 2526 42 Wants and Needs (Drake/Lil Baby) 2443 43 You're Mines Still (Yung Bleu/Drake) 2442.8 44 Bang! (AJR) 2440 45 Body (Megan Thee Stallion) 2417.8 46 Starting Over (Chris Stapleton) 2410 47 Better Together (Luke Combs) 2368 48 Willow (Taylor Swift) 2354.4 49 The Good Ones (Gabby Barrett) 2303.4 50 Telepatía (Kali Uchis) 2223.6 51 Lonely (Justin Bieber/Benny Blanco) 2207.8 52 Streets (Doja Cat) 2186.2 53 What's Next (Drake) 2023 54 Anyone (Justin Bieber) 1987.6 55 What's Your Country Song (Thomas Rhett) 1890.2 56 Track Star (Mooski) 1888.6 57 One Too Many (Keith Urban/Pink) 1880 58 Time Today (Moneybagg Yo) 1864.4 59 No More Parties (Coi Leray) 1856 60 Kings & Queens (Ava Max) 1838 61 Good Time (Niko Moon) 1836 62 Cry Baby (Megan Thee Stallion/DaBaby) 1826.2 63 Glad You Exist (Dan + Shay) 1813.6 64 Just the Way (Parmalee/Blanco Brown) 1751.2 65 Hell of a View (Eric Church) 1744.6 66 POV (Ariana Grande) 1733.8 67 Throat Baby (Brs Kash) 1709.2 68 Put Your Records On (Ritt Momney) 1693.8 69 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 1647 70 Famous Friends (Chris Young/Kane Brown) 1643 71 We're Good (Dua Lipa) 1638.4 72 Goosebumps (Travis Scott/HVME) 1638.2 73 Almost Maybes (Jordan Davis) 1627.2 74 Breaking Up Was Easy In the 90's (Sam Hunt) 1616.8 75 Wasted on You (Morgan Wallen) 1608.6 76 Lil Bit (Nelly/Florida Georgia Line) 1600 77 Down to One (Luke Bryan) 1587.2 78 Damage (H.E.R.) 1582.8 79 Made for You (Jake Owen) 1576.8 80 Gone (Dierks Bentley) 1546 81 Settling Down (Miranda Lambert) 1537.4 82 Every Chance I Get (DJ Khaled/Lil Baby/Lil Durk) 1508 83 Rockstar (DaBaby/Roddy Ricch) 1502 84 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 1491 85 Before You Go (Lewis Capaldi) 1472 86 More Than My Hometown (Morgan Wallen) 1397 87 Lady (Brett Young) 1395.6 88 Tombstone (Rod Wave) 1375.6 89 Long Live (Florida Georgia Line) 1347.6 90 Quicksand (Morray) 1331.2 91 Tyler Herro (Jack Harlow) 1309.6 92 Wockesha (Moneybagg Yo) 1297.2 93 WAP (Cardi B/Megan Thee Stallion) 1249 94 Hole In the Bottle (Kelsea Ballerini) 1246 95 Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat) (Jawsh 685/Jason Derulo) 1245.2 96 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1245 97 Monster (Shawn Mendes/Justin Bieber) 1240.6 98 What's Poppin (Jack Harlow) 1240 99 Ski (Young Stoner Life/Young Thug/Gunna) 1231.6 100 Pick Up Your Feelings (Jazmine Sullivan) 1230.4 106 Traitor (Olivia Rodrigo) 1166 107 Blame It On You (Jason Aldean) 1159.6 112 My Life (J. Cole/21 Savage/Morray) 1124.6 118 Single Saturday Night (Cole Swindell) 1042 121 Arcade (Duncan Laurence) 1016.4 126 Favorite Crime (Olivia Rodrigo) 950.8 134 Bad Habits (Ed Sheeran) 941 137 Happier (Olivia Rodrigo) 933.2 138 Yonaguni (Bad Bunny) 910 139 Way Less Sad (AJR) 898.8 140 Leave Before You Love Me (Marshmello/Jonas Brothers) 896.8 141 Brutal (Olivia Rodrigo) 877.2 142 Thot Shit (Megan Thee Stallion) 876 145 Straightenin (Migos) 855.8 147 Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home) (Elle King/Miranda Lambert) 846.8 152 Late at Night (Roddy Ricch) 824 155 Chasing After You (Ryan Hurd/Maren Morris) 791.2 158 Todo de Ti (Rauw Alejandro) 773.8 161 Build a Bitch (Bella Poarch) 761.6 162 Country Again (Thomas Rhett) 752 164 Minimum Wage (Blake Shelton) 729.2 167 Jealousy, Jealousy (Olivia Rodrigo) 702.4 168 Things a Man Oughta Know (Lainey Wilson) 697.6 171 Drinkin' Beer. Talkin' God. Amen. (Chase Rice/Florida Georgia Line) 671.2 177 Fancy Like (Walker Hayes) 639.2 179 You Right (Doja Cat/The Weeknd) 632 182 Hats Off (Lil Baby/Lil Durk/Travis Scott) 617 193 Stay (The Kid Laroi/Justin Bieber) 529 195 Need to Know (Doja Cat) 524.6 197 Pemission to Dance (BTS) 519 209 Come Through (H.E.R./Chris Brown) 465.2 211 Ain't Shit (Doja Cat) 461 212 Ball If I Want To (DaBaby) 454.6 215 Twerkulator (City Girls) 446.8 216 You (Regard/Troye Sivan/Tate McRae) 438.4 224 Fiel (Wisin/Jhay Cortez/Los Legendarios) 404 225 Wusyaname (Tyler, the Creator/YoungBoy Never Broke Again/Ty Dolla $ign) 392 231 Beggin' (Maneskin) 370.6 234 transparentsoul (Willow/Travis Barker) 362.4 238 We Didn't Have Much (Justin Moore) 344.4 240 Waves (Luke Bryan) 336.4 243 AM (Nio Garcia/J Balvin/Bad Bunny) 332.2 245 Red Light Green Light (DaBaby) 322.4 250 Motley Crew (Post Malone) 302 255 Whole Lotta Money (BiA/Nicki Minaj) 276 275 My Boy (Elvie Shane) 222.4 277 Am I the Only One (Aaron Lewis) 219.6 280 Essence (Wizkid/Tems) 213.2 294 A-O-K (Tai Verdes) 194.8 304 I Was On a Boat That Day (Old Dominion) 177.2 306 NDA (Billie Eilish) 172 309 You Should Probably Leave (Chris Stapleton) 166.8 311 Wild Side (Normani/Cardi B) 164 312 Memory (Kane Brown/blackbear) 164 317 Cold Beer Calling My Name (Jameson Rodgers/Luke Combs) 158 372 Tell the Vision (Pop Smoke/Kanye West/Pusha T) 91 375 Holy Smokes (Trippie Redd/Lil Uzi Vert) 90 384 Bout a Million (Pop Smoke/42 Dugg/21 Savage) 86.8 412 Woo Baby (Pop Smoke/Chris Brown) 78.8 443 Mr. Jones (Pop Smoke/Future) 73.2 476 More Time (Pop Smoke) 66 488 Manslaughter (Pop Smoke) 64.4 507 Demeanor (Pop Smoke/Dua Lipa) 61.2 513 2055 (Sleepy Hollow) 60.4 523 Love Again (Dua Lipa) 58.8 553 30 (Pop Smoke/Bizzy Banks) 52.4
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mikerivera
Platinum Member
Joined: November 2018
Posts: 1,655
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Post by mikerivera on Jul 27, 2021 17:52:48 GMT -5
I’m just happy Love Again finally charted. It took long enough.
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 27, 2021 18:07:33 GMT -5
That it did.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jul 27, 2021 18:16:29 GMT -5
I just can't help but think those inverse chart predictions are going to have a tough time this year. If the inverse chart hurts One Too Many's position on the Year End chart, I'm all for it. Having OTM rank higher than a song like Good Days on the Year End would be a WTF.
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 27, 2021 18:24:53 GMT -5
That's not what I'm saying; what I am saying is that relying on an invoice point formula that works against songs that spend their chart runs in the lower reaches of the Hot 100 (like One Too Many) will make one's chart guesses inaccurate given the points formula used by Billboard that strongly benefits songs that avoid recurrency.
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kcdawg13
7x Platinum Member
You Are Now Listening to 103.5 Dawn FM
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Post by kcdawg13 on Jul 27, 2021 19:48:27 GMT -5
The fact that Mood has kept #1 on most predictions this far into the year is incredible, it's last week at #1 was in January. I guess it showcases how weak the year has been for new music.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Jul 27, 2021 20:37:19 GMT -5
At the pace they’re going, both Butter and Good 4 U look like they’ll make the YE top 10 (albeit, Butter can collapse any week). If I had to make a new prediction 1. Levitating 2. Save Your Tears 3. Leave the Door Open 4. Good 4 U 5. Mood 6. Montero 7. Blinding Lights 8. Kiss Me More 9. Driver’s License 10. Butter
I think Peaches will be #11, pending a massive sales collapse for Butter
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Jul 27, 2021 20:51:19 GMT -5
At the pace they’re going, both Butter and Good 4 U look like they’ll make the YE top 10 (albeit, Butter can collapse any week). If I had to make a new prediction 1. Levitating 2. Save Your Tears 3. Leave the Door Open 4. Good 4 U 5. Mood 6. Montero 7. Blinding Lights 8. Kiss Me More 9. Driver’s License 10. Butter I think Peaches will be #11, pending a massive sales collapse for Butter It’s weird to see the two songs with the most weeks this year at the bottom of the top 10. This is a great top 10, all of these songs are either 4 or 5 (other than Kiss Me More which is a 3) even if you swap out Butter for Peaches, this is one of the best YE top 10s of all time.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Jul 27, 2021 21:11:11 GMT -5
Well Mood and Driver’s License are both gonna fall off pretty soon, and while it’s possible that Blinding Lights charts until Jesus comes back, it’s still liable to getting pushed off any week now. Whereas I expect the rest of the top 10 to last through the end of the chart year. Which, as a reminder, is only 15 weeks away.
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GP
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TOOOO BE LOOOVED
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Post by GP on Jul 28, 2021 7:31:56 GMT -5
The fact that Mood has kept #1 on most predictions this far into the year is incredible, it's last week at #1 was in January. I guess it showcases how weak the year has been for new music. and the song that surpassed is a 2020 song
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Jul 28, 2021 8:06:25 GMT -5
Interestingly enough, Kiss Me More, Butter and good 4 u should all just be in the outside looking in for the top 10 and should be in the top 10 next week.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Jul 28, 2021 12:15:30 GMT -5
2021 January-December Year-End Predictions - July 2021 UpdateIn addition to the top 50 below (thank you xtynaaguilera99), I've included the next 9 songs since we are roughly 59% of the way to the completed YE. 1. LEVITATING - Dua Lipa f/ DaBaby - 7057 2. DRIVERS LICENCE - Olivia Rodrigo - 6503 3. SAVE YOUR TEARS - The Weeknd & Ariana Grande - 6294 4. BLINDING LIGHTS - The Weeknd - 5470 5. MOOD - 24kGoldn f/ iann dior - 5232 6. LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN - Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak & Silk Sonic - 5187 7. PEACHES - Justin Bieber f/ Daniel Caesar & GIVĒON - 4645 8. ASTRONAUT IN THE OCEAN - Masked Wolf - 3947 9. MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) - Lil Nas X - 3909 10. WITHOUT YOU - The Kid LAROI - 3876 11. UP - Cardi B - 3772 12. KISS ME MORE - Doja Cat f/ SZA - 3765 13. WHAT YOU KNOW BOUT LOVE - Pop Smoke - 3718 14. BUTTER - BTS - 3703 15. GOOD 4 U - Olivia Rodrigo - 3649 16. 34+35 - Ariana Grande - 3610 17. BEST FRIEND - Saweetie f/ Doja Cat - 3509 18. GO CRAZY - Chris Brown & Young Thug - 3479 19. MY EX’S BEST FRIEND - Machine Gun Kelly & blackbear - 3450 20. POSITIONS - Ariana Grande - 3375 21. FOREVER AFTER ALL - Luke Combs - 3270 22. CALLING MY PHONE - Lil Tjay & 6LACK - 3219 23. DEJA VU - Olivia Rodrigo - 3159 24. RAPSTAR - Polo G - 3106 25. THEREFORE I AM - Billie Eilish - 2930 26. HEARTBREAK ANNIVERSARY - GIVĒON - 2812 27. BACK IN BLOOD - Pooh Shiesty f/ Lil Durk - 2799 28. ON ME - Lil Baby - 2766 29. BEAT BOX - SpotemGottem - 2693 30. DÁKITI - Bad Bunny & Tjay Cortez - 2683 31. BEAUTIFUL MISTAKES - Maroon 5 & Megan Thee Stallion - 2652 32. HEAT WAVES - Glass Animals - 2567 33. FOR THE NIGHT - Pop Smoke f/ Lil Baby & DaBaby - 2537 34. YOU BROKE ME FIRST - Tate McRae - 2500 35. WANTS AND NEEDS - Drake f/ Lil Baby - 2496 36. GOOD DAYS - SZA - 2454 37. YOU’RE MINES STILL - Yung Bleu f/ Drake - 2313 38. THE GOOD ONES - Gabby Barrett - 2243 39. TELEPATÍA - Kali Uchis - 2203 40. STREETS - Doja Cat - 2097 41. WHAT’S NEXT - Drake - 2036 42. WHOOPTY - CJ - 2024 43. WILLOW - Taylor Swift - 1994 44. HOLY - Justin Bieber f/ Chance the Rapper - 1875 45. ANYONE - Justin Bieber - 1871 46. TRACK STAR - Mooski - 1866 47. TIME TODAY - MoneyBagg YO - 1856 48. STARTING OVER - Chris Stapleton - 1846 49. NO MORE PARTIES - Coi Leray f/ Lil Durk - 1808 50. WHAT’S YOUR COUNTRY SONG - Thomas Rhett - 1734 51. BODY - Megan Thee Stallion - 1729 52. BETTER TOGETHER - Luke Combs - 1721 53. CRY BABY - Megan Thee Stallion ft. DaBaby - 1691 54. JUST THE WAY - Parmalee & Blanco Brown - 1662 55. WE'RE GOOD - Dua Lipa - 1645 56. DYNAMITE - BTS - 1639 57. GLAD YOU EXIST - Dan + Shay - 1634 58. ONE TOO MANY - Keith Urban & P!nk - 1632 59. HELL OF A VIEW - Eric Church - 1627 TOO WEAK: none MADE 2020: I Hope, Bang!, Laugh Now Cry Later, Lemonade, Kings & Queens CAUGHT: Lonely, Put Your Records On, Good Time, POV, Throat Baby
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 28, 2021 12:20:23 GMT -5
Good on Blanco Brown ensuring his avoidance of OHW status and nice to see OTM and We're Good as well.
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samo🦕
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Post by samo🦕 on Jul 28, 2021 14:45:28 GMT -5
pov deserved but overall that list of songs caught between years is very promising
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 28, 2021 15:06:50 GMT -5
It is intriguing to see how shifting the YE shifts the sorts of songs that are caught between years. I wonder if any artists/labels/etc. have a strategy when it comes to YE chart releases. I know some artists like Arianna Grande have a habit of releasing songs and albums close to the new YE as part of that winter rush in a way that tends to maximize early year chart position.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Jul 30, 2021 20:34:34 GMT -5
My usual two-part estimate of the year end top 100 for the chart week of July 31, 2021. First how I think it currently stands: And what was inevitable for weeks is now official - Levitating has climbed to the #1 song of Billboard calendar year 2021 on my chart. I fully expect it to remain there the rest of the year. Three songs look to have locked a year-end chart poistion: Glad You Exist, Famous Friends, and Every Chance I Get.
Now how I think the year-end will look if all songs are guesstimated to the last week, by averaging 95% of current chart position until year-end or insufficient points to stay in the top 50: EST Year end | Song | Artist | YE Est Pts | 1 | Levitating | Dua Lipa ft. DaBaby | 11393 | 2 | Blinding Lights | The Weeknd | 8994 | 3 | Save Your Tears | The Weeknd & Ariana Grande | 8773 | 4 | Mood | 24kGoldn ft. iann dior | 8383 | 5 | Butter | BTS | 7946 | 6 | Good 4 U | Olivia Rodrigo | 7161 | 7 | Drivers License | Olivia Rodrigo | 7034 | 8 | Leave The Door Open | Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) | 6833 | 9 | Montero (Call Me By Your Name) | Lil Nas X | 6209 | 10 | Kiss Me More | Doja Cat ft. SZA | 6021 | 11 | Peaches | Justin Bieber ft. Daniel Caesar & Giveon | 6014 | 12 | Positions | Ariana Grande | 5621 | 13 | Without You | The Kid LAROI | 5597 | 14 | Dakiti | Bad Bunny & Jhay Cortez | 5575 | 15 | Deja Vu | Olivia Rodrigo | 5453 | 16 | Astronaut In The Ocean | Masked Wolf | 5399 | 17 | Forever After All | Luke Combs | 5057 | 18 | 34+35 | Ariana Grande | 4985 | 19 | Go Crazy | Chris Brown & Young Thug | 4925 | 20 | What You Know Bout Love | Pop Smoke | 4842 | 21 | Rapstar | Polo G | 4594 | 22 | Heartbreak Anniversary | Giveon | 4562 | 23 | Up | Cardi B | 4419 | 24 | My Ex's Best Friend | Machine Gun Kelly X blackbear | 4393 | 25 | Best Friend | Saweetie ft. Doja Cat | 4279 | 26 | Therefore I Am | Billie Eilish | 4247 | 27 | For The Night | Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & DaBaby | 3909 | 28 | Beautiful Mistakes | Maroon 5 ft. Megan Thee Stallion | 3600 | 29 | Calling My Phone | Lil Tjay ft. 6LACK | 3565 | 30 | Holy | Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper | 3523 | 31 | You Broke Me First. | Tate McRae | 3329 | 32 | On Me | Lil Baby | 3299 | 33 | Heat Waves | Glass Animals | 3243 | 34 | I Hope | Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth | 3240 | 35 | Stay | The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber | 3218 | 36 | Bad Habits | Ed Sheeran | 3144 | 37 | Back In Blood | Pooh Shiesty ft. Lil Durk | 3137 | 38 | Dynamite | BTS | 3010 | 39 | Laugh Now Cry Later | Drake ft. Lil Durk | 3007 | 40 | Beat Box | SpotemGottem ft. Pooh Shiesty Or DaBaby | 2982 | 41 | Good Days | SZA | 2913 | 42 | Telepatia | Kali Uchis | 2847 | 43 | Permission To Dance | BTS | 2822 | 44 | Stay | BTS | 2816 | 45 | Whoopty | CJ | 2749 | 46 | Wants And Needs | Drake ft. Lil Baby | 2734 | 47 | Lemonade | Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV | 2709 | 48 | Bang! | AJR | 2667 | 49 | You're Mines Still | Yung Bleu ft. Drake | 2649 | 50 | Better Together | Luke Combs | 2614 | 51 | Willow | Taylor Swift | 2609 | 52 | Starting Over | Chris Stapleton | 2605 | 53 | Body | Megan Thee Stallion | 2551 | 54 | Every Chance I Get | DJ Khaled ft. Lil Baby & Lil Durk | 2471 | 55 | Famous Friends | Chris Young + Kane Brown | 2448 | 56 | The Good Ones | Gabby Barrett | 2404 | 57 | Lil Bit | Nelly & Florida Georgia Line | 2386 | 58 | Lonely | Justin Bieber & benny blanco | 2350 | 59 | Streets | Doja Cat | 2325 | 60 | Anyone | Justin Bieber | 2103 | 61 | Fancy Like | Walker Hayes | 2100 | 62 | What's Next | Drake | 2080 | 63 | Glad You Exist | Dan + Shay | 2033 | 64 | Kings & Queens | Ava Max | 2004 | 65 | Time Today | Moneybagg Yo | 1997 | 66 | Track Star | Mooski | 1978 | 67 | What's Your Country Song | Thomas Rhett | 1956 | 68 | You Right | Doja Cat & The Weeknd | 1955 | 69 | No More Parties | Coi Leray ft. Lil Durk | 1918 | 70 | All I Want For Christmas Is You | Mariah Carey | 1916 | 71 | Cry Baby | Megan Thee Stallion ft. DaBaby | 1904 | 72 | Good Time | Niko Moon | 1815 | 73 | Single Saturday Night | Cole Swindell | 1794 | 74 | pov | Ariana Grande | 1793 | 75 | Just The Way | Parmalee x Blanco Brown | 1779 | 76 | Thot Shit | Megan Thee Stallion | 1768 | 77 | Leave Before You Love Me | Marshmello X Jonas Brothers | 1736 | 78 | We're Good | Dua Lipa | 1708 | 78 | Throat Baby (Go Baby) | BRS Kash | 1708 | 80 | Hell Of A View | Eric Church | 1703 | 81 | Put Your Records On | Ritt Momney | 1654 | 82 | Goosebumps | Travis Scott & HVME | 1635 | 83 | Rockstar | DaBaby ft. Roddy Ricch | 1627 | 84 | Damage | H.E.R. | 1620 | 85 | Before You Go | Lewis Capaldi | 1611 | 86 | Traitor | Olivia Rodrigo | 1607 | 87 | Wild Side | Normani ft. Cardi B | 1581 | 88 | Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree | Brenda Lee | 1571 | 89 | Blame It On You | Jason Aldean | 1553 | 90 | More Than My Hometown | Morgan Wallen | 1550 | 90 | Breaking Up Was Easy In The 90's | Sam Hunt | 1550 | 92 | Settling Down | Miranda Lambert | 1505 | 93 | Gone | Dierks Bentley | 1504 | 94 | Down To One | Luke Bryan | 1497 | 95 | Wasted On You | Morgan Wallen | 1495 | 96 | One Too Many | Keith Urban Duet With P!nk | 1488 | 97 | Made For You | Jake Owen | 1431 | 98 | Wockesha | Moneybagg Yo | 1417 | 99 | Almost Maybes | Jordan Davis | 1352 | 100 | Whats Poppin | Jack Harlow ft. DaBaby, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne | 1344 |
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 30, 2021 21:23:39 GMT -5
Thanks for sharing, yeah, it looks like Levitating is a solid pick for #1, making it a rare YE #1 that never hit the weekly #1 (here's looking at you Faith Hill).
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Aug 2, 2021 9:04:08 GMT -5
Blinding Lights is on the verge of passing Mood as the 2nd biggest song of 2021 which means that the two biggest songs of the year so far are both songs that have not hit 1 this year, I will assume this is a first unless knows another time.
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n13l5
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I like to follow the billboard chart predictions on here
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Post by n13l5 on Aug 2, 2021 13:59:33 GMT -5
im done with this, if lil nas x cant compete with no-life BTS stans who just buy the same song 1000 times every week, then who can? Is there any way to get rid of Butter so following the charts can be fun again?
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Aug 2, 2021 14:03:33 GMT -5
im done with this, if lil nas x cant compete with no-life BTS stans who just buy the same song 1000 times every week, then who can? Is there any way to get rid of Butter so following the charts can be fun again? At this point, I just want BTS to be out of the #1 spot, even if it is for one week. If Travis Scott has to use website sales or Morgan Wallen’s fans buying his comeback single to get this done, so be it.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Aug 2, 2021 16:44:59 GMT -5
Updated Year End Guesses: (Using TOTC prediction)
Songs that have not yet crossed the cutoff that I think will: Industry Baby, Stay, Bad Habits, Permission To Dance, Fancy Like, You Right, Every Chance I Get, Leave Before You Love Me, Thot s**t, Lil Bit, Famous Friends (will cross this week), Late At Night, Beggin', Traitor, Yonaguni, Chasing After You, Skate
Songs I think could make it but a little less confident on: Ain't s**t, Need To Know, Wockesha, Arcade, Drunk, Essence, Tombstone, Love Again, Goosebumps
Songs I currently don't think will make it but definitely could: Motley Crew, Single Saturday Night, Drinkin' Beer Talkin' God Amen, Todo De Ti, Things A Man Oughta Know, You, Country Again, Happier Than Ever
Using the 71 already crossed and my top category gives us 88, adding my second category is 96 with the 4 remaining going to songs not released/charted yet, or exchanged for some of the bottom category.
Lmk if you disagree with anything!
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Aug 2, 2021 19:50:43 GMT -5
Holy shit. BTS stans want to power Butter to the record for weeks at #1, don’t they? Please, someone somewhere, put something out to get them off the top spot. Since Billboard isn’t gonna do anything to fix their broken system
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