2021 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 9)

[n13l5]

Dec 4, 2020 10:19:55 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Dec 4, 2020 5:15:28 GMT -5 Lost In Musical Reverie said:

n13l5 It's definitely weird - I admit. I think it's probably a mix of "Circles" being really massive throughout the chart year (November 2019 - November 2020), "Hollywood's Bleeding" never leaving the top 15 on the Billboard 200 (+ it was released before all these projects), and just overall consistency on radio and streaming, the latter also adding "Sunflower" to the mix as well as other recurrent songs.

So I guess timing played the bigger role here, even if 2020 was more the year of The Weeknd and Roddy Ricch.

Oh, and his three studio albums all ended within the Top 45 on the Year-End - that must have counted for something as well.

So, the most simple way I see how he managed this is how the chart is calculated:

How This Chart Works

Radio Airplay + Sales Data + Streaming Data = TOP ARTISTS

Post was the #1 in Billboard 200 Artists and #8 in the Hot 100 Artists, while The Weeknd was #8 and #1, respectively. Given that streaming for albums is far more valuable than streaming for Hot 100 songs because all the tracks from the album are counted, it is easy to see how that could have happened. The Weeknd did edge Post in Streaming Song Artists, Radio Songs Artists, Digital Song Sales Artists and Top Album Artists, but you can't discount all the streaming that all those songs from Post's three albums had that was not necessarily reflected in Streaming Songs.

Ah that makes sense, thank you

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

n13l5 Someone also pointed out on another thread that they might have considered touring numbers as well, and for obvious reasons, The Weeknd, Roddy, and Harry were unable to tour like Post did before the pandemic.

If that was the case, it does seem a bit unfair given the circumstances, but most agree he would have still been in the top 5/top 3 regardless

[Groovy]

Depending on how it does after Christmas music leaves, I still think Heather can come back to the Hot 100.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

you broke me first is gaining quite a bit on radio, I think it might be a sleeper hit

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Most recent alternative hits seem to be the that way.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Well, "alternative" in giant quotation marks

[gikem]

I'm curious, what are the odds Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree makes the 2021 YE?

Obviously, AIWFCIY will make it, no question, but RATCT is not far behind it in points this year, and it returned the same week too.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^I personally think it will. And probably a couple more holiday songs could be close.

[Groovy]

Hopefully this is the last year where Christmas disrupts the charts, hopefully Billboard makes a separate chart or something for the holiday music.

[gikem]

Dec 6, 2020 14:43:04 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Hopefully this is the last year where Christmas disrupts the charts, hopefully Billboard makes a separate chart or something for the holiday music.

They already do make a separate chart (the Holiday 100, I believe it's called), but this has been a growing problem since the recurrent rules preventing old songs from re-entering were lifted back in 2012. IIRC, it was first enacted to allow songs from the late Whitney Houston to re-chart after her tragic passing, but it has gone much too far this year.

[tuna]

^I think adding a recurrency rule that stops songs appearing on more than 2 year-ends if they're lower than the top 50 would stop this

[Groovy]

Songs that I can see repeating

Mood- This is a give me since it's been at 1 for a few weeks and looks to be at 1 for another week this week, it's still has consistent radio and streaming.

I Hope- The radio might be dropping but I think it might be around until radio drops it completely or it falls victim 52/25 rule.

Laugh Now Cry Later- Streaming might be falling but it still has strong radio.

Blinding Lights- Still consistent all around the board.

All I Want for Christmas Is You- Christmas rolls around and this is always a smash hit, strong streaming and sales.

ily (i love you baby)- Good radio

Go Crazy- It has good radio, it has a good chance to re-enter the top 10.

For the Night- Good streaming but that's about it.

Be Like That- Good radio and okay streaming.

Dynamite- Good radio.

Before You Go- Good radio and okay sales.

[Groovy]

Songs that didn't make the year end list that I think will make it in 2021

Dakiti- Great streaming and rising radio. 

Lemonade- Great streaming and decent radio. 

Body- With the momentum it has, it can very well be at number 1 hit, great streaming, great sales and rising radio. 

positions- Consistent everywhere. 

Holy- Like positions, it's consistent everywhere. 

Kings & Queens- Good sales and good radio, can see it being in the top 10 after the Christmas music leaves.

Therefore I Am- Although it's lagging in streaming, it still has good sales and rising in radio. 

Monster- Radio is starting to get on board with this song. 

Levitating- Good sales, continue to climb the radio and has decent streaming, another potential top 10 hit after the Christmas music exits. 

7 Summers- This can definitely be a crossover hit once More Than My Hometown, it got a huge boost in sales thanks to his performance on SNL and it has decent streaming. 

my ex's best friend- Okay streaming and okay radio. 

Prisoner- It's falling in streaming but it's rising on radio. 

Starting Over- Good sales and decent radio. 

Bang!- Some people believe it might get caught in between years but I don't see it, it has great sales and good radio.   

you broke me first- Rising on radio and streaming, could be a top 10 or 20 hit. 

[gikem]

^^I'd remove ily and Before You Go (which, even if they return next month, will lose weeks due to the Christmas music) and add Savage Love (radio is still OK and will recover post-Christmas).

^Also, I'd add Whoopty (becoming a big viral hit on streaming and doing well internationally), Diamonds (good radio and okay sales that should both recover post-Christmas), Life Goes On (sales monster, might have a run similar to THE SCOTTS), What You Know Bout Love (streaming is still pretty good and radio is getting on board), and Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree (should be strong enough to get the points needed to make the YE).

And despite good radio, I expect B.S. to get caught due to having little else besides that.

[Groovy]

^Still gotta see when radio drops those two and yeah I think Savage Love might make it as well.

There were several songs I left off that I thought will make it.

[joshtheking]

I agree with Bang! making it. I think it'll enter the top 20 once the christmas songs exit and it'll stick around for a while

[gikem]

Dec 7, 2020 16:10:06 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

I agree with Bang! making it. I think it'll enter the top 20 once the christmas songs exit and it'll stick around for a while

Like most “indie” crossover hits these days, I expect Bang! to (unfortunately) get 35+ weeks total. It lost 18 to 2020, but should be fine for 2021 if it gets to that number.

[mikerivera]

Something to keep in mind is that 7 Summers will already be at 16 weeks this week.

[gikem]

Dec 7, 2020 16:32:04 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Something to keep in mind is that 7 Summers will already be at 16 weeks this week.

Maybe it'll pull a "LOVE." and return to the top 50 on its radio run if it ends up going recurrent after 20 weeks.

[Deleted]

7 Summers will probably be fine considering it's nowhere close to peaking on country radio, and it will very likely hit #1 in that format sometime next year. This means that it will definitely last more than 20 weeks on the charts, and will probably last 30+ weeks, which should be more than enough to make 2021's year end list.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Also, it has its parent album release to boost it. And since it appears that Morgan Wallen's songs in the Hot 100 tend to have pretty good longevity, it is highly like it will make it.

[Groovy]

Here are some more songs that I think can make it. 

Dicked Down In Dallas- Great sales and solid streaming. 

Forever After All- Good sales and has some presence on streaming. 

Somebody's Problem- Decent sales and streaming. 

34+35- Slowly rising on radio and has good streaming. 

pov- This will probably depend on when they stop pushing positions and 34+35, it has the streaming but doesn't have much outside of that. 

HOLIDAY- Good streaming and it's gaining on radio. 

Golden- It fell a bit on radio but will likely rebound. 

Long Live- Okay radio. 

Here are some songs that will probably get caught in between years. 

FRANCHISE- It's falling on radio, no sales and no streaming, it will be on its way out pretty soon. 

Midnight Sky- It has a slim chance with the little streaming it has but I don't like its chances either. 

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

Dec 7, 2020 12:59:10 GMT -5 gikem said:

^^I'd remove ily and Before You Go (which, even if they return next month, will lose weeks due to the Christmas music) and add Savage Love (radio is still OK and will recover post-Christmas).

^Also, I'd add Whoopty (becoming a big viral hit on streaming and doing well internationally), Diamonds (good radio and okay sales that should both recover post-Christmas), Life Goes On (sales monster, might have a run similar to THE SCOTTS), What You Know Bout Love (streaming is still pretty good and radio is getting on board), and Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree (should be strong enough to get the points needed to make the YE).

And despite good radio, I expect B.S. to get caught due to having little else besides that.

I think it could go both ways for "B.S." - either it becomes a sleeper hit that manages to dodge the recurrency rule for a while (à la "P*$$y Fairy"), or it just gradually loses radio momentum and gets caught between years.

Another thing to consider as well is that Jhene could have a moment in the spotlight with the Grammys, as "Chilombo" was an unexpected AOTY nomination, and not only she's likely performing "B.S." onstage (alongside Grammy darling H.E.R.), but she has good chances of winning the award too, being one of three AOTY nominees to be nominated for the genre categories as well.

[PositivityMaster48]

2021 Billboard Year-End Predictions (Week 4/52)
(12/12/2020)
Thank goodness I’m right on schedule this time. And I now have a full 100 songs on this YE prediction. Enjoy!
# Song Artist Points
1 “Mood” 24KGoldn ft. Iann Dior 12,690
2 “Positions” Ariana Grande 9,030
3 “I Hope” Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth 8,210
4 “Laugh Now Cry Later” Drake ft. Lil Durk 8,040
5 “Holy” Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper 7,660
6 “Dynamite” BTS 7,540
7 “Blinding Lights” The Weeknd 7,450
8 “Lemonade” Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV 7,330
9 “Dakiti” Bad Bunny ft. Jhay Cortez 7,090
10 “For The Night” Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & Dababy 6,590
11 “Therefore I Am” Billie Eilish 6,570
12 “Go Crazy” Chris Brown ft. Young Thug 6,490
13 “Kings & Queens” Ava Max 6,260
14 “Savage Love” Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo 6,260
15 “WAP” Cardi B ft. Megan Thee Stallion 5,790
16 “More Than My Hometown” Morgan Wallen 5,670
17 “ROCKSTAR” Dababy ft. Roddy Ricch 5,610
18 “All I Want For Christmas Is You” Mariah Carey 5,490
19 “Before You Go” Lewis Capaldi 5,430
20 “Be Like That” Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee & Khalid 5,400
21 “Levitating” Dua Lipa ft. Dababy 5,300
22 “Bang!” AJR 5,200
23 “Life Goes On” BTS 5,150
24 “Hawai” Maluma ft. The Weeknd 5,070
25 “34+35” Ariana Grande 5,020
26 “Lonely” Justin Bieber & benny blanco 4,940
27 “ily (i love you baby)” Surf Mesa ft. Emilee 4,930
28 “Said Sum” Moneybagg Yo 4,860
29 “Watermelon Sugar” Harry Styles 4,770
30 “Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree” Brenda Lee 4,650
31 “WHAT’S POPPIN” Jack Harlow ft. Dababy, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne 4,640
32 “What You Know About Love” Pop Smoke 4,480
33 “Happy Anywhere” Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani 4,230
34 “Love You Like I Used To” Russell Dickerson 4,100
35 “Better Together” Luke Combs 4,030
36 “Forever After All” Luke Combs 3,990
37 “Starting Over” Chris Stapleton 3,960
38 “Big, Big Plans” Chris Lane 3,700
39 “Diamonds” Sam Smith 3,690
40 “Wonder” Shawn Mendes 3,690
41 “Body” Megan Thee Stallion 3,500
42 “I Should Probably Go To Bed” Dan + Shay 3,390
43 “One Of Them Girls” Lee Brice 3,370
44 “pov” Ariana Grande 3,340
45 “You Broke Me First” Tate McRae 3,330
46 “One Beer” Hardy ft. Lauren Alaina & Devin Dawson 3,330
47 “Ain’t Always The Cowboy” Jon Pardi 3,290
48 “Jingle Bell Rock” Bobby Helms 3,210
49 “Midnight Sky” Miley Cyrus 3,210
50 “Monster” Shawn Mendes ft. Justin Bieber 3,170
51 “Pretty Heart” Parker McCollum 3,160
52 “Mr. Right Now” 21 Savage & Metro Boomin ft. Drake 3,140
53 “HOLIDAY” Lil Nas X 3,050
54 “7 Summers” Morgan Wallen 2,980
55 “My Ex’s Best Friend” Machine Gun Kelly ft. Blackbear 2,970
56 “B.S” Jhené Aiko ft. H.E.R 2,960
57 “It’s The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year” Andy Williams 2,910
58 “Took Her To The O” King Von 2,900
59 “Come & Go” Juice WRLD ft. Marshmello 2,770
60 “Feliz Navidad” Jose Feliciano 2,680
61 “Don’t Stop” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Young Thug 2,680
62 “Tyler Herro” Jack Harlow 2,670
63 “Whoopty” CJ 2,640
64 “Throat Baby (Go Baby)” BRS Kash 2,640
65 “Last Christmas” Wham! 2,630
66 “The Christmas Song” Nat King Cole 2,620
67 “Champagne Night” Lady A 2,550
68 “Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Dean Martin 2,530
69 “Hit Different” SZA ft. Ty Dolla Sign 2,490
70 “Good Time” Niko Moon 2,470
71 “Golden” Harry Styles 2,430
72 “Martin & Gina” Polo G 2,390
73 “Hole In The Bottle” Kelsea Ballerini 2,340
74 “FRANCHISE” Travis Scott ft. Young Thug & M.I.A 2,170
75 “Got What I Got” Jason Aldean 2,060
76 “Somebody’s Problem” Morgan Wallen 2,030
77 “Prisoner” Miley Cyrus ft. Dua Lipa 1,880
78 “U 2 Luv” Ne-Yo ft. Jeremih 1,880
79 “Adore You” Harry Styles 1,800
80 “Blue & Grey” BTS 1,730
81 “Drankin N Smokin” Future & Lil Uzi Vert 1,720
82 “Still Goin Down” Morgan Wallen 1,680
83 “Heather” Conan Gray 1,680
84 “Sleigh Ride” The Ronnettes 1,520
85 “A Holly Jolly Christmas” Burl Ives 1,480
86 “Stay” BTS 1,420
87 “Underneath The Tree” Kelly Clarkson 1,340
88 “Happy Holiday/The Holiday Season” Andy Williams 1,300
89 “Here Comes Santa Claus” Gene Autry 1,260
90 “White Christmas” Bing Crosby 1,240
91 “It’s Beginning To Look A Like Christmas” Michael Buble 1,230
92 “Rudolph The Red-Nosed Reindeer” Gene Autry 1,210
93 “Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)” Darlene Love 1,190
94 “Blind” Dababy ft. Young Thug 1,160
95 “It’s Beginning To Look A Like Christmas” Perry Como 1,140
96 “Put Your Records On” Ritt Momney 1,140
97 “(There’s No Place Like) Home For The Holidays” Perry Como 1,120
98 “La Noche De Anoche” Bad Bunny and Rosalia 1,040
99 “Stripes Like Burberry” Future & Lil Uzi Vert 950
100 “D*cked Down In Dallas” Trey Lewis 880

[rockgolf]

My Top 100 of 2021 predictions, with the ridiculously early chart date of Dec 12, 2020.

Needless to say early days yet, but would I be surprised to see Mood in the top 10, even the top 5 of 2021? No I would not.

I believe it will be the first song to go to #1 four different times. It's already been #1 thrice, will fall to AIWFCIY next week, and probably return for its 4th run in the first actual week of 2021.

[samo🦕]

Dec 8, 2020 18:47:35 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

I believe it will be the first song to go to #1 four different times.

[PositivityMaster48]

Dec 9, 2020 7:15:13 GMT -5 samo🦕 said:

Dec 8, 2020 18:47:35 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

I believe it will be the first song to go to #1 four different times.

I completely forgot about that.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Save Your Tears just debuted in the pop charts while Blinding Lights just left the Top 10. Hopefully this means it won't be cannibalized like In Your Eyes and After Hours can finally get a third Top 10 hit.

[spoons]

Dec 7, 2020 19:14:09 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Here are some more songs that I think can make it. 

Dicked Down In Dallas- Great sales and solid streaming. 

Forever After All- Good sales and has some presence on streaming. 

Somebody's Problem- Decent sales and streaming. 

34+35- Slowly rising on radio and has good streaming. 

pov- This will probably depend on when they stop pushing positions and 34+35, it has the streaming but doesn't have much outside of that. 

HOLIDAY- Good streaming and it's gaining on radio. 

Golden- It fell a bit on radio but will likely rebound. 

Long Live- Okay radio. 

Here are some songs that will probably get caught in between years. 

FRANCHISE- It's falling on radio, no sales and no streaming, it will be on its way out pretty soon. 

Midnight Sky- It has a slim chance with the little streaming it has but I don't like its chances either. 

wow country music man... i love dicked down in dallas <3

[Groovy]

Midnight Sky is so difficult to predict, one week it has a good week and gains and then another it's looking like it's on it's way out.