Billboard Hot 100: 01/30/2021

[lazer]

Billboard better do a formula change when it comes to events like this.

[Gary]

Jan 16, 2021 23:16:50 GMT -5 @antigonerising said:

I would not be so quick to declare that a long-running #1 indicates a market change when 2020 itself was a departure from the norm - it was the first time since 1991 that the Hot 100 had 20 or more #1s. It's definitely worth noting that The Box was the last number one we had before COVID-19 began wreaking havoc.

Looking at the last five chart years (2016-2020), you have to go back to 2016 to find a year where there wasn't an 8+ week #1 beginning its run in the first two months (and even that is a technicality; Work reached #1 on the first dated chart week for March, but in real time that means the last week of February). If Drivers License has a run that long it would actually hint at a return to normalcy.

Well OK -That is more of a long term look, my comments were more 2020 based on the flurry of #1 debuts in the Covid era (which we are unfortunately still in)


None of that is going to be resolved now of course as none of us know for sure if this song will spend 10+ weeks at #1.

I know this is the week #2 thread but the week #1 chart does not come out til Tuesday. If we must declare that this song will spend 10 weeks at #1 fine - just saying it will buck recent trends if it does.

[nathanalbright]

Couldn't beat YT's superrecurrency, oh wells.

[Au$tin]

Jan 16, 2021 23:43:02 GMT -5 lazer said:

Billboard better do a formula change when it comes to events like this.

What event? A big hit? What kind of formula change?

[kcdawg13]

Jan 17, 2021 2:03:46 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Jan 16, 2021 23:43:02 GMT -5 lazer said:

Billboard better do a formula change when it comes to events like this.

What event? A big hit? What kind of formula change?

"LoWeR sTrEaMs!!!"

DL is actually being piloted by real listens, not over inflation by obsessed stans with too much money that mass buy one week at #1 and another week at #93. Idk what rule changes this person wants, that only one is lowering streaming power which would kill off all the real hits. 

[lazer]

Jan 17, 2021 2:27:49 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Jan 17, 2021 2:03:46 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

What event? A big hit? What kind of formula change?

"LoWeR sTrEaMs!!!"

DL is actually being piloted by real listens, not over inflation by obsessed stans with too much money that mass buy one week at #1 and another week at #93. Idk what rule changes this person wants, that only one is lowering streaming power which would kill off all the real hits. 

I actually want the charts to have more streaming power and less radio and sales. 

[Au$tin]

Jan 17, 2021 2:36:44 GMT -5 lazer said:

Jan 17, 2021 2:27:49 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

"LoWeR sTrEaMs!!!"

DL is actually being piloted by real listens, not over inflation by obsessed stans with too much money that mass buy one week at #1 and another week at #93. Idk what rule changes this person wants, that only one is lowering streaming power which would kill off all the real hits. 

I actually want the charts to have more streaming power and less radio and sales. 

Sales are pretty much negligent anyways, lowering them wouldn't do anything. The only time they're relevant is during debut weeks. Being #1 in sales for most weeks doesn't even guarantee you a spot on the Hot 100. As for lowering radio, would that not just make the Hot 100 nearly resemble the already existing Streaming Songs chart?

And I'm still confused on how this relates to "drivers license." It's going to easily be #1 under the current formula.

[lazer]

Jan 17, 2021 2:52:33 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Jan 17, 2021 2:36:44 GMT -5 lazer said:

I actually want the charts to have more streaming power and less radio and sales. 

Sales are pretty much negligent anyways, lowering them wouldn't do anything. The only time they're relevant is during debut weeks. Being #1 in sales for most weeks doesn't even guarantee you a spot on the Hot 100. As for lowering radio, would that not just make the Hot 100 nearly resemble the already existing Streaming Songs chart?

And I'm still confused on how this relates to "drivers license." It's going to easily be #1 under the current formula.

There's just no way songs like Go Crazy, Bang, Holy, and I Hope are more popular than Whoopty, Good Days, and 34+35. The former songs are still in the top ten because of radio play. Radio programmers are total garbage right now, they refuse to let go older songs and reluctant to play newer ones. Drivers License is actually a song people actively listen to. Let's face it, the Hot 100 is a mess right now and formula change is needed to make it more accurate.

[jaffery]

Jan 17, 2021 3:07:51 GMT -5 lazer said:

Jan 17, 2021 2:52:33 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Sales are pretty much negligent anyways, lowering them wouldn't do anything. The only time they're relevant is during debut weeks. Being #1 in sales for most weeks doesn't even guarantee you a spot on the Hot 100. As for lowering radio, would that not just make the Hot 100 nearly resemble the already existing Streaming Songs chart?

And I'm still confused on how this relates to "drivers license." It's going to easily be #1 under the current formula.

There's just no way songs like Go Crazy, Bang, Holy, and I Hope are more popular than Whoopty, Good Days, and 34+35. The former songs are still in the top ten because of radio play. Radio programmers are total garbage right now, they refuse to let go older songs and reluctant to play newer ones. Drivers License is actually a song people actively listen to. 

More people have heard those songs than the ones you mentioned therefore they are bigger hits as radio is also a form of consumption. Also a lot of those have peaked on streaming already and it’s normal for a song after 4 months to not be strong on streaming And have radio take over. 

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jan 17, 2021 3:11:34 GMT -5 jaffery said:

Jan 17, 2021 3:07:51 GMT -5 lazer said:

There's just no way songs like Go Crazy, Bang, Holy, and I Hope are more popular than Whoopty, Good Days, and 34+35. The former songs are still in the top ten because of radio play. Radio programmers are total garbage right now, they refuse to let go older songs and reluctant to play newer ones. Drivers License is actually a song people actively listen to. 

More people have heard those songs than the ones you mentioned therefore they are bigger hits as radio is also a form of consumption. Also a lot of those have peaked on streaming already and it’s normal for a song after 4 months to not be strong on streaming And have radio take over. 

Yes but songs can still have longevity on streaming even after months. you broke me first, my exs best friend, Blinding Lights, For the Night,  The Box, and others are still in the Top 100 of Spotify even after months. 

In comparison, GO crazy, Holy, and I hope were either never streaming powerhouses to begin with or have underperformed. I agree with Lazer: Whoopty, Good Days , and 34+35 should be in the Top 10. They re stable on radio and on streaming than the radio powerhouses.

Also I'm not sure what u mean by more people have heard songs because of radio. I'm not disagreeing that radio is valid consumption but it's been proven that across all demographics, more music is being discovered and listen to on streaming.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Btw for those playing Pulse bingo, we can punch out the space for "argument about radio"

[nathanalbright]

Did we really need this? I guess we can punch out the space for discussion of pulse bingo too.

[jenglisbe]

Jan 17, 2021 3:07:51 GMT -5 lazer said:

Jan 17, 2021 2:52:33 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Sales are pretty much negligent anyways, lowering them wouldn't do anything. The only time they're relevant is during debut weeks. Being #1 in sales for most weeks doesn't even guarantee you a spot on the Hot 100. As for lowering radio, would that not just make the Hot 100 nearly resemble the already existing Streaming Songs chart?

And I'm still confused on how this relates to "drivers license." It's going to easily be #1 under the current formula.

There's just no way songs like Go Crazy, Bang, Holy, and I Hope are more popular than Whoopty, Good Days, and 34+35. The former songs are still in the top ten because of radio play. Radio programmers are total garbage right now, they refuse to let go older songs and reluctant to play newer ones. Drivers License is actually a song people actively listen to. Let's face it, the Hot 100 is a mess right now and formula change is needed to make it more accurate.

I don't see an issue with radio holding onto songs forever as streaming has shown us people like to do that (on Spotify "BL" is still top 15 after over a year, and Juice WRLD has a song top 30 after 3 years of charting). I think the issue is more the other part you mention; the slowness to play new songs. "drivers license" and "good days" were picked by users right away, but they will peak at radio months from now.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jan 17, 2021 6:40:33 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Jan 17, 2021 3:07:51 GMT -5 lazer said:

There's just no way songs like Go Crazy, Bang, Holy, and I Hope are more popular than Whoopty, Good Days, and 34+35. The former songs are still in the top ten because of radio play. Radio programmers are total garbage right now, they refuse to let go older songs and reluctant to play newer ones. Drivers License is actually a song people actively listen to. Let's face it, the Hot 100 is a mess right now and formula change is needed to make it more accurate.

I don't see an issue with radio holding onto songs forever as streaming has shown us people like to do that (on Spotify "BL" is still top 15 after over a year, and Juice WRLD has a song top 30 after 3 years of charting). I think the issue is more the other part you mention; the slowness to play new songs. "drivers license" and "good days" were picked by users right away, but they will peak at radio months from now.

I think another issue is that when they do latch on to songs quickly, it's white milquetoast gunk like Memories or Holy or Afterglow as we're seeing now. Once in a while you'll get a Mood or a Blinding Lights or a Levitating even where they peak the same time as streaming but those are the exceptions, not the norm

[thegreatdivine]

Jan 17, 2021 7:13:39 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Jan 17, 2021 6:40:33 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

I don't see an issue with radio holding onto songs forever as streaming has shown us people like to do that (on Spotify "BL" is still top 15 after over a year, and Juice WRLD has a song top 30 after 3 years of charting). I think the issue is more the other part you mention; the slowness to play new songs. "drivers license" and "good days" were picked by users right away, but they will peak at radio months from now.

I think another issue is that when they do latch on to songs quickly, it's white milquetoast gunk like Memories or Holy or Afterglow as we're seeing now. Once in a while you'll get a Mood or a Blinding Lights or a Levitating even where they peak the same time as streaming but those are the exceptions, not the norm

Oooowweeee, could this be time for my "radio is inherently racist" take? ^__^

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

Jan 17, 2021 3:59:25 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Btw for those playing Pulse bingo, we can punch out the space for "argument about radio"

Thanks for reminding me of these two gems from last winter that deserve to be updated.


by former member @killamonjaro


by lurker2

[suzcruz7]

Jan 17, 2021 7:26:33 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Jan 17, 2021 7:13:39 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I think another issue is that when they do latch on to songs quickly, it's white milquetoast gunk like Memories or Holy or Afterglow as we're seeing now. Once in a while you'll get a Mood or a Blinding Lights or a Levitating even where they peak the same time as streaming but those are the exceptions, not the norm

Oooowweeee, could this be time for my "radio is inherently racist" take? ^__^

It's always time for that take because it's absolutely correct.

Pop radio really puttin' in the work carrying the careers of white men. Some white women too but Bieber, Sheeran, and Maroon 5 are the worst examples.

[strongerq]

Jan 16, 2021 22:37:08 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Not "Life Is Good" going recurrent on YouTube's weekly chart while it would still be #2 this week  

The chart run for giggles:
1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-3-4-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-1-1-1-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-OFF

TIL that chart has recurrency.

It seemed strange to me that when i checked in mid 2020 Old Town Road wasn't in the top 100. But i guessed it is normal since memes died down and i couldn't find another old song in top 100 for any previous year. Why the fuсk would that chart have reccurency rule. It makes 0 sense.

Just checked OTR was #7 in 52nd week and boom gone next week.

[otaviohmg]

where is the gunna remix on bingo?

[fridayteenage]

Given Olivia's origins, I wonder if Breaking Free would've been #1 if streaming was a thing back in the day. Sales #1, from a #1 album.

[Groovy]

I guess it's to safe to say that 34+35 isn't gonna challenge driver's license not that I really had high expectations for it anyways but it's losing on streaming already after two days and the sales are starting die down too.

[Groovy]

I just learned that Forever After All was never released as a single and now I know why it never picked up steam after the debut at 2.

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

otaviohmg It wasn't a recurring meme back then, I think. But it should definitely be added to a future update.

suzcruz7 While it's true radio is less willing to push songs from black artists, and it does have a history of inherent racism (cutting rap verses from songs being the most egregious example), it is incorrect to say it has been carrying the careers of Justin Bieber, Ed Sheeran, and Maroon 5, when they all have a strong streaming presence.

For instance, the song that's infamously attributed to being carried solely by radioplay, "Girls Like You", is the 57th most streamed song of all time on Spotify, above 2018 hits like "Psycho", "I Like It", and "I Fall Apart".

Same thing applies for Ed Sheeran - he's a streaming monster, and the underperformance of "Afterglow" is more an exception. A case could be made for Bieber, though, but he still gets good streaming debuts, and his current batch of hits are all on the top 100 of Spotify right now.

[suzcruz7]

I just think it's unfair that those artists automatically get so much radioplay while other songs with better streaming and more relevance get dropped all the time.  Like you cannot deny the favortism.

But you're right they're not being carried.  Just moreso being propped up.

[HolidayGuy]

Billboard adjusted points or streaming because of how long hits were staying on the chart- it also did that with streaming-era hits, in terms of all-time lists. So, no, Billboard is not likely to reduce how airplay factors into the chart- same with sales. Whether it's a fan army or a broad spectrum of people purchasing a single via ways that meet chart criteria, sales will continue to play a key factor at times. As long as valid receipts/transactions are provided, an act's web store is just as valid a sales outlet as iTunes, Amazon, etc. And as long as the price meets Billboard's criteria, it's all good. If Billboard wanted to raise the price minimum, that's another story. But I don't see a banning of sales from acts' online stores.

[thegreatdivine]

drivers license starting to come back down to earth, but streams are still massive. 

WW (#1)
12.110M (-1.604M)

US (#1) 
4.100M (-0.871M) 

UK (#1)
1.024M (-0.186M)

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

Jan 17, 2021 9:31:19 GMT -5 suzcruz7 said:

I just think it's unfair that those artists automatically get so much radioplay while other songs with better streaming and more relevance get dropped all the time.  Like you cannot deny the favortism.

But you're right they're not being carried.  Just moreso being propped up.

Oh yeah, absolutely! 

It still baffles me how Miley's "Midnight Sky" suddenly got dropped out of radioplay estimates, despite it's excellent initial callouts, while something like "Yummy" had a longer shelf life (if I recall correctly).

[kalmanta]

Jan 17, 2021 9:14:58 GMT -5 Groovy said:

I guess it's to safe to say that 34+35 isn't gonna challenge driver's license not that I really had high expectations for it anyways but it's losing on streaming already after two days and the sales are starting die down too.

It’s an half-assed attempt of a remix, and the numbers show it.

[jaffery]

Jan 17, 2021 2:27:49 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Jan 17, 2021 2:03:46 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

What event? A big hit? What kind of formula change?

"LoWeR sTrEaMs!!!"

DL is actually being piloted by real listens, not over inflation by obsessed stans with too much money that mass buy one week at #1 and another week at #93. Idk what rule changes this person wants, that only one is lowering streaming power which would kill off all the real hits. 

What about songs like lonely and blinding lights that clearly have 14k+ sales per week right now from organic gp buys and 14k sales goes a long way with points on the hot 100. Not every song is getting big sales because of mass buys

[jaffery]

Jan 17, 2021 10:26:51 GMT -5 Lost In Musical Reverie said:

Jan 17, 2021 9:31:19 GMT -5 suzcruz7 said:

I just think it's unfair that those artists automatically get so much radioplay while other songs with better streaming and more relevance get dropped all the time.  Like you cannot deny the favortism.

But you're right they're not being carried.  Just moreso being propped up.

Oh yeah, absolutely! 

It still baffles me how Miley's "Midnight Sky" suddenly got dropped out of radioplay estimates, despite it's excellent initial callouts, while something like "Yummy" had a longer shelf life (if I recall correctly).

Yummy was dropped instantly. It went up like crazy then got dropped once callouts came out. What In the hell is levitating doing up there still because I can tell you know, levitating wasn’t out streaming yummy.