Billboard Hot 100: 04/10/2021

[starlord]

Mar 28, 2021 5:41:38 GMT -5 mgkjn11 said:

How much time before y’all think a new artist makes a viral hit that hits number one? The last time we saw it was 24k Goldn and Iann Dior. I wonder who will be next

Driver's License?????

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Why do y'all constantly dump on TOTC lol? They only post predictions and have been consistently accurate.

Don't shoot the messenger is all I'm saying

[jenglisbe]

Mar 28, 2021 5:59:24 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Why do y'all constantly dump on TOTC lol? They only post predictions and have been consistently accurate.

Don't shoot the messenger is all I'm saying

Saying it has a strong chance to debut top 10 is a prediction. A random mention about an audio of the video version is...something else.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Mar 28, 2021 6:09:33 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Mar 28, 2021 5:59:24 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Why do y'all constantly dump on TOTC lol? They only post predictions and have been consistently accurate.

Don't shoot the messenger is all I'm saying

Saying it has a strong chance to debut top 10 is a prediction. A random mention about an audio of the video version is...something else.

it wasn't random. They said if an audio version is uploaded (which is a very common thing to do anyways), it has a shot at number one.

[Enigma.]

I interpreted that they meant releasing it to audio streaming? The audio video on Youtube won't do anything, as Youtube is weighted less.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

You know instead of just shading them here, you can all just ask what they meant in Discord lol discord.gg/talkofthecharts

[iamsorare]

Mar 28, 2021 6:15:00 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Mar 28, 2021 6:09:33 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Saying it has a strong chance to debut top 10 is a prediction. A random mention about an audio of the video version is...something else.

it wasn't random. They said if an audio version is uploaded (which is a very common thing to do anyways), it has a shot at number one.

something like this ? m.youtube.com/watch?v=oz0Oz5tBOg8

[Enigma.]

Montero increased a bit and is #2 on Spotify. It's still below top 40 on AM though and not much airplay. Top ten debut is possible?

[𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤]

I’m on mobile so I can make it look fancy, but “MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name)” is #2 and +75,541 streams on Spotify to 1,311,800 streams...

I’m gonna CRY
he’d be #26 on AM without Rod Wave

[jaffery]

Lil nas could go top 5 right? He is doing a lot better on youtube, btw speaking of YouTube, how on earth does blinding lights only have 400m views. In comparison to hits like shape of you and despacito, these views are bad for such a big song

[thegreatdivine]

Mar 28, 2021 5:59:24 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Why do y'all constantly dump on TOTC lol? They only post predictions and have been consistently accurate.

Don't shoot the messenger is all I'm saying

Constantly? When last did anyone say anything even remotely critical about them on here? The tweet was weird, period and it only got pointed out because it's something they've done in the past.

Saying it has a strong chance to debut in the top 10 is enough. Suggesting that the artist release the music video's audio as a new version so the song can debut at #1 is something else. Even people in the quoted replies of the tweet thought it was weird that they were suggesting a next course of acting for the artist to secure a #1 debut.

[jenglisbe]

Mar 28, 2021 7:25:01 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Mar 28, 2021 5:59:24 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Why do y'all constantly dump on TOTC lol? They only post predictions and have been consistently accurate.

Don't shoot the messenger is all I'm saying

Constantly? When last did anyone say anything even remotely critical about them on here? The tweet was weird, period and it only got pointed out because it's something they've done in the past.

Saying it has a strong chance to debut in the top 10 is enough. Suggesting that the artist release the music video's audio as a new version so the song can debut at #1 is something else. Even people in the quoted replies of the tweet thought it was weird that they were suggesting a next course of acting for the artist to secure a #1 debut.

Right. And to me saying top 10 there means it isn't close to #1 (why not say top 5 or top 3 as they often do), so what makes them think an audio of the video would be enough to push it to #1?

[thegreatdivine]

Mar 28, 2021 7:20:15 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Montero increased a bit and is #2 on Spotify. It's still below top 40 on AM though and not much airplay. Top ten debut is possible?

It's probably doing well enough on Apple Music to secure a top 10 debut. You have to remember that while Rod Wave's new album is taking up most of the top 30, it's currently at #44 so it's holding on well enough. It should rise during the rest of the tracking week as more of Rod Wave's songs fall. I don't know how long it'll be able to maintain those YouTube numbers but it's off to a great start. I'd say a top 10/top 5 debut is in the bag.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Mar 28, 2021 6:44:07 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

Mar 28, 2021 6:15:00 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

it wasn't random. They said if an audio version is uploaded (which is a very common thing to do anyways), it has a shot at number one.

something like this ? m.youtube.com/watch?v=oz0Oz5tBOg8

I'm not sure if those videos count. I meant more one with (Official Audio Video)

[thegreatdivine]

Mar 28, 2021 7:28:25 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Mar 28, 2021 7:25:01 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Constantly? When last did anyone say anything even remotely critical about them on here? The tweet was weird, period and it only got pointed out because it's something they've done in the past.

Saying it has a strong chance to debut in the top 10 is enough. Suggesting that the artist release the music video's audio as a new version so the song can debut at #1 is something else. Even people in the quoted replies of the tweet thought it was weird that they were suggesting a next course of acting for the artist to secure a #1 debut.

Right. And to me saying top 10 there means it isn't close to #1 (why not say top 5 or top 3 as they often do), so what makes them think an audio of the video would be enough to push it to #1?

I mean, they probably figure the extra streams coming from a new audio version of the track should be enough to push it to #1. They run numbers for the Hot 100 every week and they're pretty accurate so if they said that, they know it stands a chance at a #1 from a couple more million streams.

[iamsorare]

He is #1 on iTunes.. I don't know what to say.I guess the controversial video and the promotion that he did on tiktok for months really helped ..

[gikem]

I love Levitating, but how the f**k did it reach a new peak on US Spotify yesterday of all days?

[jenglisbe]

"Dreams" isn't far behind #1 on iTunes. Is it just the discounted price, or did another video of it go viral?

[iamsorare]

Mar 28, 2021 7:35:00 GMT -5 gikem said:

I love Levitating, but how the f**k did it reach a new peak on US Spotify yesterday of all days?

this became viral yesterday vm.tiktok.com/ZMeUTwwuq/ , also it's still high on TTH ,many people discovered the song after her grammy performance and they are still playing it, yesterday was Saturday and many people want to dance on Saturday (even with the pandemic), and the power of DaBaby lol

[suzcruz7]

Lil Nas X is a national treasure. That tweet responding to the accusations of "desperate" promotion is one of the most honest things I've seen from an artist.

I hope this takes the hell OFF.

[thegreatdivine]

Mar 28, 2021 7:34:18 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

He is #1 on iTunes.. I don't know what to say.I guess the controversial video and the promotion that he did on tiktok for months really helped ..

Songs that leak/get teased by artists (to good reception by fans/general public) before they're officially released tend to do well upon release. Just off the top of my head: No Guidance, God's Plan, drivers license, 7 Summers, Peaches and now Montero. A version of all those songs got leaked/teased before they got released officially. Fans liked the songs and when they dropped, they took off organically. Seems to be a thing that works.

Of course, for any song to serve true consistency/longevity, the GP would have to be on board. Controversy will only last for so long and if that's all your song is riding on, it won't be long till it's performance starts declining on all fronts.

[𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤]

Mar 28, 2021 7:35:00 GMT -5 gikem said:

I love Levitating, but how the f**k did it reach a new peak on US Spotify yesterday of all days?

its approaching 900k Spotify streams now. Jfc

[strongerq]

Mar 28, 2021 4:16:49 GMT -5 aussie1 said:

Mar 27, 2021 18:09:45 GMT -5 iHype. said:

It struggled to go 1x Platinum following her biggest hit in America. It was even below Don't Start Now on streaming for most of its run.

It has over 600M streams on Spotify, the most solo streamed female song of 2020.

It has over 350M views on Youtube.

Just because it's 'only' certified Platinum doesn't mean it isn't eligible to be certified higher. Certifications aren't always a true look at a song success as they aren't always updated regularly.

BMH ended 2020 with ~195M ODAS.

When i was calculating some certification eligibilities, DSN had 10.7% of the YouTube streams coming from US (this should be around the same). And the sales are negligible.

So it has just reached 2xP or it is nearing to it in the US.

I comented just to say it is kinda pointless to compare Global streams from Spotify for an artist like Dua Lipa (same with Ed Sheeran).

Here is why:

Only days when the songs charted on both US top 200 & Global top 200 are counted. Second column is how many days the song was simultaneously on US & Global chart, with the US percentage in the 3rd column. BMH is quite EU centered (even more than average).

Physical	108	15.3%
Break My Heart	190	17.9%
IDGAF	227	18.0%
Don't Start Now	458	18.2%
Kiss and Make Up	44	19.1%
New Rules	399	19.4%
We're Good	25	21.9%
Levitating (feat. DaBaby)	155	25.6%
Swan Song - From the Motion Picture "Alita: Battle Angel"	27	27.6%

The numbers for Dua (Globally would be higher) if Spotify was popular as a streaming platform in Eastern parts of Europe (Balkan Peninsula especially). So realistically this percentages would be lower.

[strongerq]

Déjà vu

[firefox]

Mar 28, 2021 7:35:00 GMT -5 gikem said:

I love Levitating, but how the f**k did it reach a new peak on US Spotify yesterday of all days?

I just wished "Physical" had this moment right now. It was the best song released last year (for me).

[Abbaschand]

Mar 28, 2021 7:31:29 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Mar 28, 2021 6:44:07 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

something like this ? m.youtube.com/watch?v=oz0Oz5tBOg8

I'm not sure if those videos count. I meant more one with (Official Audio Video)

Nah, I think you guys are all wrong. If you listen carefully, the video version have extra bridge before the outro. Maybe that's what TOTC meant by Video Audio. Or maybe he just needs to release like an official Lyric Video of CMBYN.

[rideordie]

Lil nas is no.1 on iTunes. I think it’s safe to say this is turning into a hit for him

[Gary]

On the same chart where there are 4 discounted oldies in the top 10

[code]

Didn't totc just call HDD cloutchasers now they're doing the same shit? Lmao

Fucking clowns, all of them

[andrebra]

Mar 27, 2021 16:42:34 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Mar 27, 2021 16:12:07 GMT -5 musicspy said:

I think its a new peak in streams for Levitating. This is so sad to happen now

For what it's worth, it's her teams fault. 

Future Nostalgia era had a pretty terrible single rollout, which makes the longevity even more surprising.

"Break My Heart" had no business being a single, let alone pushed for so long. "Levitating" shoulda been a Summer 2020 smash. "Cool" should've been pushed in the Winter, and it would've also been doing better than "We're Good". 

"If It Ain't Me" feels like the hit from the re-release to me. 

What? Future Nostalgia is the most consistently successful pop era we've had in awhile.