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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jun 5, 2021 13:47:54 GMT -5
hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=326771&title=NEW-RELEASES%253A-LIL-COLLAB-GOES-BIGSaturday, June 5, 2021 NEW RELEASES: LIL COLLAB GOES BIGThe collaboration between Lil Baby & Lil Durk, The Voice of the Heroes (Quality Control/Alamo/Motown/Capitol), will open at #1 on next Fridayβs HITS Top 50. After one day, weβre projecting over 200m audio streams in the albumβs first week. Olivia Rodrigo's SOUR (Geffen) will cross the 1m mark in YTD activity this week with a projected 130-135k for its third week. UPDATED: Lil Baby & Lil Durk (QC/Alamo/Motown): 165-185k; 4-7k albums
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Post by thegreatdivine on Jun 5, 2021 14:04:52 GMT -5
Meanwhile, evermore will be falling right out of the top 10...
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Jun 5, 2021 14:34:31 GMT -5
Olivia will take it on BB200, I'd say.
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shaz196
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Post by shaz196 on Jun 5, 2021 14:51:27 GMT -5
Olivia will take it on BB200, I'd say. with ~40k units separating them?
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Jun 6, 2021 6:57:11 GMT -5
HITS tend to overestimate rap albums and underestimate Olivia (they were around 20k off last week), so they could be basically even. We are wiser on Monday I'd say.
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Post by neverduplicated on Jun 6, 2021 9:39:03 GMT -5
Hits has been underestimating how well Oliviaβs streaming numbers have been holding up, which makes sense because her album has shown unprecedented stability. Thereβs a good chance they are underestimating her again.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jun 6, 2021 10:48:52 GMT -5
^I would actually think Lil Baby's and Lil Durk's album will end up being more overestimated that Olivia's underestimated if Spotify give us any indication.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jun 8, 2021 17:44:31 GMT -5
Tuesday, June 8, 2021
Lil Baby & Lil Durk take over at #1 this week with their tandem set, The Voice of the Heroes, as Olivia Rodrigo remains steady at #2βand this week crosses 1m YTD. If this configuration holds, IGA will once again own three in the Top 5, while Republic will have four in the Top 10, including a Top 10 bow from Big Hit K-Pop ensemble Tomorrow X Together.
In almost-post-pandemic news, we look forward to the highly resonant transition from getting drunk at outdoor restaurants to getting drunk at indoor restaurants.
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Post by ificanthaveyou on Jun 8, 2021 17:59:50 GMT -5
Meanwhile, evermore will be falling right out of the top 10... You thought...
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Jun 8, 2021 18:07:00 GMT -5
Considering 20k of that 28k figure is still actual sales I'm gonna guess some shipments were delayed.
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Post by thegreatdivine on Jun 8, 2021 18:46:51 GMT -5
Meanwhile, evermore will be falling right out of the top 10... You thought... 20/28K are pure sales. That'll fall more the week after and the week after that. My point still remains. It isn't being consumed as much as it's position is reflecting. How many streams make up 8K SPS? That's tells you all you need to know.
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Post by ificanthaveyou on Jun 8, 2021 19:09:30 GMT -5
20/28K are pure sales. That'll fall more the week after and the week after that. My point still remains. It isn't being consumed as much as it's position is reflecting. How many streams make up 8K SPS? That's tells you all you need to know. Thereβs no point breaking it down like that. What are you so bothered by? How many people went out to Target or music stores to buy the vinyl? How many people pre-ordered the vinyl or a signed copy knowing it would arrive at a future date? How many people downloaded it from iTunes? Sure, it didnβt stream great, but people bought it (whether to consume it or to keep it as a memento/collectorβs item) and the numbers are clear that per Billboard rules, it was the most consumed album of the week. I know Sour βfeelsβ more popular and of the moment, but evermore sold more copies and generated more revenue last week. Simple as that. Of course itβs going to sharply decline next week. Itβs a 6 month old album. What other albums from December are smashing right now?
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Post by The Visionary Vantageβ’ on Jun 8, 2021 19:14:19 GMT -5
20/28K are pure sales. That'll fall more the week after and the week after that. My point still remains. It isn't being consumed as much as it's position is reflecting. How many streams make up 8K SPS? That's tells you all you need to know. And? Lol This is an album that has sold 1.3 million copies SPS and is one of the best-selling albums (what, top 3?) released since last year. It had one single with no promotion outside of a snippet of its lead single featured in a medley at the Grammys. It has absolutely nothing to keep it top 10/20/50 six months after release. Hell, it even had a new era (the first re-release series) thrown on top of it. It's not hard to comprehend why it wouldn't be in the top 50 to begin with and it's not hard to comprehend why it would naturally fall after whatever promotion/shipment has occured. Sales absolutely are consumption too. This isn't a streaming only chart just yet, no matter how badly some wish it to be. Kind of over this new mentality that Spotify/Streaming is the be all end all to determine "true" popularity. Not every consumer streams. Streaming is not the only metric of success. Like are we going to be holding onto and carrying this same energy when whatever the next act who opens big due to sales but isn't dominating streaming services tops the chart? Cause it absolutely has and will continue to happen.
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Post by thegreatdivine on Jun 8, 2021 20:14:21 GMT -5
I'm not reading all that, sorry.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jun 8, 2021 21:30:19 GMT -5
I maintain that it's great that something other than streaming shakes up the chart some- it's not the be-all-end-all, whether it's the dominant factor in music or not. Physical/digital-to-own products, and the power to move such, whether in a single week or over the course of some months, is welcome. Taylor Swift and her team have shown they're a force in terms of giving fans product they want and will pay for. And on top of that, she's also a streaming force when she releases new material. So, she has all the bases covered.
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Jun 8, 2021 21:46:51 GMT -5
Considering 20k of that 28k figure is still actual sales I'm gonna guess some shipments were delayed. perhaps people who realized the vinyl was out last week put in some orders on later in the tracking week that got shipped this week... she's holding up better than expected, that's for sure. 74-1-45 would have been one hell of a chart run, though. but 74-1-8-48 will have to do.
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Eqbk
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Post by Eqbk on Jun 9, 2021 0:15:56 GMT -5
I'm not too frustrated with Evermore's outcome. As a initial skeptic turned fan of Olivia, I get the frustration. Her debut is such a moment in pop and music history. For her to only be given the top spot for 1 week (so far) on both the Hot 100 and Billboard 200 when she's captured the cultural zeitgeist is frustrating. But like I said, I'm not too irked about this situation (now the situation on the Hot 100 is another story) because the Billboard 200 is not always about capturing mainstream popularity in the way the Hot 100 is.
There have always been artists who traditionally don't do well on the Hot 100 but do well on the albums charts for various reasons. Sometimes they're a veteran act who is past their hit-making prime but still garner interest from a loyal fan base. Sometimes they're an artist from a genre that typically does not get mainstream attention but still is popular with a sizable amount of the general population. Just look at someone like Norah Jones. Her highest peak on the Hot 100 is #30, while Come Away with Me peaked at #1 on the Billboard 200. In fact, she blocked multiple mainstream acts such as Jennifer Lopez and Avril Lavigne from getting the top spot back in 2003. Was that not fair or accurate because they were both popular mainstream acts back then getting hits on the Hot 100 while Norah could barely scrape a top 40 hit? No. She clearly still resonated with a lot of people. Even if a lot of them are outside of the audience that consumes mainstream, "popular" music, they still count and the Billboard 200 reflected that.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Jun 9, 2021 0:36:50 GMT -5
For instance, Gaga's debut never got higher than #2. For a debut album, even a week at #1 is great.
That said, it would be crazy if both G4U and Sour got only one week at the top considering how big they have been.
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Post by ificanthaveyou on Jun 9, 2021 0:42:59 GMT -5
I maintain that it's great that something other than streaming shakes up the chart some- it's not the be-all-end-all, whether it's the dominant factor in music or not. Physical/digital-to-own products, and the power to move such, whether in a single week or over the course of some months, is welcome. Taylor Swift and her team have shown they're a force in terms of giving fans product they want and will pay for. And on top of that, she's also a streaming force when she releases new material. So, she has all the bases covered. I always love your posts!
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Post by Wave. on Jun 9, 2021 8:27:32 GMT -5
I'm not too frustrated with Evermore's outcome. As a initial skeptic turned fan of Olivia, I get the frustration. Her debut is such a moment in pop and music history. For her to only be given the top spot for 1 week (so far) on both the Hot 100 and Billboard 200 when she's captured the cultural zeitgeist is frustrating. But like I said, I'm not too irked about this situation (now the situation on the Hot 100 is another story) because the Billboard 200 is not always about capturing mainstream popularity in the way the Hot 100 is.
There have always been artists who traditionally don't do well on the Hot 100 but do well on the albums charts for various reasons. Sometimes they're a veteran act who is past their hit-making prime but still garner interest from a loyal fan base. Sometimes they're an artist from a genre that typically does not get mainstream attention but still is popular with a sizable amount of the general population. Just look at someone like Norah Jones. Her highest peak on the Hot 100 is #30, while Come Away with Me peaked at #1 on the Billboard 200. In fact, she blocked multiple mainstream acts such as Jennifer Lopez and Avril Lavigne from getting the top spot back in 2003. Was that not fair or accurate because they were both popular mainstream acts back then getting hits on the Hot 100 while Norah could barely scrape a top 40 hit? No. She clearly still resonated with a lot of people. Even if a lot of them are outside of the audience that consumes mainstream, "popular" music, they still count and the Billboard 200 reflected that. Good point with Norah!
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Post by neverduplicated on Jun 9, 2021 8:29:24 GMT -5
You also have to consider that some people who purchase albums will be listening to that album for a long time with no streaming activity being registered. Yes I know a lot of people buy vinyl just to hang it on their wall, but thereβs thousands who are actually listening to the album and may be listening next week, the week after, and so on, but all those listens for the entire life of that purchase will get counted on the one week the album was purchased and never again, even if lots of fans are still listening weeks/months/years later. When I used to purchase albums I would play the hell out of my favorite CDs, still listening to my favorites years after I purchased them. Streams measure popularity and consumption instantaneously whereas album purchases will spread out consumption over a long period of time but only get counted in one week. Therefore I donβt think the album chart is strictly about what is the most popular right in this instant and some activity is counting future listens as well, though the growing dominance of streaming has shifted the chart more towards that.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jun 9, 2021 9:55:12 GMT -5
^Well said. Listening habits after making a purchase were never counted in the pre-streaming era. It was a one-and-done purchase and that was that- and it still is for buying music, rather than "renting" it.
And thanks for the good word, ificanthaveyou. :)
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jun 11, 2021 7:58:13 GMT -5
A paragraph is "all that"? LOL
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Jun 11, 2021 8:25:07 GMT -5
I got the evermore vinyl this week and did play it. Not that Iβm representative of most, but Iβm willing to bet a nice few of the people who did also listened.
The timing is interesting and is what throws things off because the album has been available for months, and preorders for the album were open for months too, so the numbers this week arenβt necessarily reflective of this week, so I get why thatβs a thing. Itβs essentially giving the album two release dates, where the first would include pre-orders prior to the album (not in this case, as the album was announced with one dayβs notice, but in most cases, people have a chance to pre-order an album for weeks or months before itβs release that only get counted on release week) and the second was the vinyl release.
On that note, do people take issue when an album is available on streaming only for a week or two before physical (or even digital)? Iβm guessing the issue this time is how much time has passed since the initial release. Had it gone: week 1 streaming, week 3: CDs, week 5: vinyl, it might not be as much of an issue?
Iβd even go as far as to say the week evermore returned to the top would need a footnote explaining why. I think itβs fair that physical sales have more weight than streams, so I donβt think itβs unfair that this returned to number because of it, but I also wonder whether it would have made more sense to count pre-orders on a product essentially already available as they came in. Rating whatβs most popular should be dependent on the actions of people at the time rather than when something gets shipped.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jun 11, 2021 15:03:09 GMT -5
Friday, June 11, 2021
Lil Baby & Lil Durk's Voice of the Heroes (Alamo/Geffen/Interscope/QC/Motown) opens at #1 on the HITS Top 50 with 158k. It's Durk's first chart-topping album. Olivia Rodrigo spends a consecutive week at #2 with 141k, as SOUR (Geffen) crosses 1m units in activity this year.
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strongerq
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Post by strongerq on Jun 11, 2021 15:05:24 GMT -5
hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming LW | TW | Artist | Title | Label | Total | Change | Albums | TEA | SEA | -- | 1 | LIL BABY & LIL DURK | THE VOICE OF THE HEROES | ALAMO/GEFFEN/INTERSCOPE/WOLFPACK/QUALITY CONTROL/MOTOWN | 158,397 | -- | 4,710 | 1,413 | 152,274 | 2 | 2 | OLIVIA RODRIGO | SOUR | GEFFEN | 141,545 | -23% | 13,231 | 2,633 | 125,681 | 4 | 3 | MORGAN WALLEN | DANGEROUS: THE DOUBLE ALBUM | BIG LOUD/REPUBLIC | 48,768 | -7% | 1,905 | 771 | 46,092 | 3 | 4 | J. COLE | THE OFF-SEASON | DREAMVILLE/ROC NATION/INTERSCOPE | 42,703 | -29% | 821 | 364 | 41,517 | -- | 5 | TOMORROW X TOGETHER | THE CHAOS CHAPTER: FREEZE | BIGHIT/REPUBLIC | 39,792 | -- | 35,449 | 211 | 4,132 | 5 | 6 | MONEYBAGG YO | A GANGSTA'S PAIN | CMG/N-LESS/INTERSCOPE | 39,166 | -7% | 190 | 336 | 38,640 | 6 | 7 | DUA LIPA | FUTURE NOSTALGIA | WARNER | 34,195 | 4% | 1,414 | 1,633 | 31,148 | 9 | 8 | LUKE COMBS | WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET | RIVER HOUSE/COLUMBIA NASHVILLE | 28,608 | -3% | 1,730 | 1,052 | 25,826 | 1 | 9 | TAYLOR SWIFT | EVERMORE | REPUBLIC | 27,859 | -85% | 18,759 | 149 | 8,952 | 10 | 10 | JUSTIN BIEBER | JUSTICE | RBMG/DEF JAM | 27,731 | -6% | 1,068 | 1,140 | 25,523 | 11 | 11 | THE WEEKND | AFTER HOURS | XO/REPUBLIC | 27,680 | -5% | 1,414 | 1,251 | 25,016 | 12 | 12 | POP SMOKE | SHOOT FOR THE STARS AIM FOR THE MOON | VICTOR VICTOR/REPUBLIC | 27,552 | -1% | 285 | 315 | 26,953 | 7 | 13 | JUICE WRLD | GOODBYE & GOOD RIDDANCE | GRADE A/INTERSCOPE | 22,551 | -30% | 425 | 133 | 21,993 | 18 | 14 | POST MALONE | HOLLYWOOD'S BLEEDING | REPUBLIC | 21,160 | -1% | 389 | 323 | 20,448 | 15 | 15 | LIL BABY | MY TURN | QUALITY CONTROL/MOTOWN/CAPITOL | 20,813 | -9% | 201 | 160 | 20,453 | 13 | 16 | POOH SHIESTY | SHIESTY SEASON | ATLANTIC | 20,446 | -20% | 76 | 219 | 20,151 | 19 | 17 | JUICE WRLD | LEGENDS NEVER DIE | GRADE A/INTERSCOPE | 20,431 | -4% | 935 | 173 | 19,323 | 17 | 18 | ROD WAVE | SOULFLY | ALAMO/GEFFEN/INTERSCOPE | 20,321 | -11% | 72 | 86 | 20,162 | 21 | 19 | QUEEN | GREATEST HITS 1 | HOLLYWOOD | 20,061 | -2% | 4,158 | 697 | 15,207 | 14 | 20 | DJ KHALED | KHALED KHALED | WE THE BEST/EPIC | 19,873 | -16% | 282 | 442 | 19,149 | 27 | 21 | HARRY STYLES | FINE LINE | COLUMBIA | 17,950 | 0% | 4,409 | 544 | 12,997 | 25 | 22 | THE WEEKND | THE HIGHLIGHTS | XO/REPUBLIC | 17,504 | -5% | 1,148 | 320 | 16,036 | 24 | 23 | THE KID LAROI | F*CK LOVE | COLUMBIA | 17,487 | -5% | 98 | 493 | 16,897 | 26 | 24 | LUKE COMBS | THIS ONE'S FOR YOU | RIVER HOUSE/COLUMBIA NASHVILLE | 17,390 | -4% | 1,169 | 310 | 15,910 | 20 | 25 | YOUNG STONER LIFE, YOUNG THUG & GUNNA | SLIME LANGUAGE 2 | YOUNG STONER LIFE/ATLANTIC | 17,372 | -16% | 77 | 157 | 17,138 | 34 | 26 | BAD BUNNY | EL ULTIMO TOUR DEL MUNDO | RIMAS | 17,305 | 7% | 169 | 157 | 16,979 | 23 | 27 | MACHINE GUN KELLY | TICKETS TO MY DOWNFALL | BAD BOY/INTERSCOPE | 17,058 | -8% | 1,057 | 357 | 15,645 | 30 | 28 | POLO G | THE GOAT | COLUMBIA | 16,861 | -4% | 140 | 135 | 16,586 | -- | 29 | SLEEPY HALLOW | STILL SLEEP? | WINNERS CIRCLE/RCA | 16,754 | -- | 231 | 89 | 16,433 | 31 | 30 | ARIANA GRANDE | POSITIONS | REPUBLIC | 16,497 | -6% | 1,686 | 276 | 14,535 | 42 | 31 | BAD BUNNY | YHLQMDLG | RIMAS | 16,481 | 6% | 166 | 89 | 16,227 | 41 | 32 | BILLIE EILISH | WHEN WE ALL FALL ASLEEP, WHERE DO WE GO? | DARKROOM/INTERSCOPE | 15,869 | 1% | 3,210 | 221 | 12,438 | 16 | 33 | 42 DUGG | FREE DEM BOYZ | CMG/INTERSCOPE | 15,858 | -31% | 50 | 205 | 15,603 | 32 | 34 | LIL TJAY | DESTINED 2 WIN | COLUMBIA | 15,608 | -9% | 9 | 176 | 15,422 | 40 | 35 | HAMILTON | ORIGINAL BROADWAY CAST | UPTOWN/ATLANTIC | 15,255 | -3% | 856 | 126 | 14,273 | -- | 36 | RISE AGAINST | NOWHERE GENERATION | LOMA VISTA/CONCORD | 15,053 | -- | 12,382 | 113 | 2,558 | 37 | 37 | MORGAN WALLEN | IF I KNOW ME | BIG LOUD | 15,030 | -5% | 391 | 255 | 14,385 | 35 | 38 | MEGAN THEE STALLION | GOOD NEWS | ATLANTIC | 15,022 | -7% | 788 | 277 | 13,957 | 28 | 39 | GIVEON | WHEN IT'S ALL SAID AND DONE... TAKE TIME | NOT SO FAST/EPIC | 15,003 | -16% | 167 | 197 | 14,640 | 36 | 40 | FLEETWOOD MAC | RUMOURS | WARNER | 14,756 | -7% | 2,601 | 355 | 11,800 | 43 | 41 | CREEDENCE CLEARWATER REVIVAL | CHRONICLE: THE 20 GREATEST HITS | FANTASY | 14,448 | -5% | 3,185 | 409 | 10,854 | 44 | 42 | ELTON JOHN | DIAMONDS | ISLAND | 14,344 | -2% | 1,750 | 562 | 12,031 | 47 | 43 | BOB MARLEY & THE WAILERS | LEGEND | TUFF GONG/ISLAND | 14,120 | 1% | 3,799 | 327 | 9,995 | 33 | 44 | TAYLOR SWIFT | FOLKLORE | REPUBLIC | 13,997 | -14% | 4,398 | 99 | 9,500 | 45 | 45 | EMINEM | CURTAIN CALL | SHADY/AFTERMATH/INTERSCOPE | 13,961 | 0% | 999 | 757 | 12,205 | 29 | 46 | NICKI MINAJ | BEAM ME UP SCOTTY | REPUBLIC | 13,717 | -22% | 99 | 234 | 13,384 | 39 | 47 | EMINEM | MUSIC TO BE MURDERED BY | SHADY/AFTERMATH/INTERSCOPE | 13,302 | -16% | 690 | 304 | 12,308 | 50 | 48 | TRAVIS SCOTT | ASTROWORLD | CACTUS JACK/GRAND HUSTLE/EPIC | 13,199 | 0% | 810 | 85 | 12,304 | 46 | 49 | DOJA CAT | HOT PINK | KEMOSABE/RCA | 13,139 | -6% | 247 | 238 | 12,654 | 49 | 50 | POST MALONE | BEERBONGS & BENTLEYS | REPUBLIC | 13,067 | -2% | 343 | 259 | 12,466 |
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Jun 11, 2021 15:12:48 GMT -5
Another slightly underperforming and frontloaded rap album then. Although it'll probably just hold at #1 on BB200.
But it was 18 vs. 11 tracks too.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jun 11, 2021 15:14:45 GMT -5
Albums from #8 to #12 are within the margin of error to be candidates for the actual top 10 of the Billboard 200.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jun 12, 2021 9:04:37 GMT -5
In regard to pre-orders- what about album pre-orders that occur leading up to an album's release? Should they be counted in the weeks prior to the actual release date? I don't think it matters if an album is available in any form or not- a pre-order is a pre-order, so Billboard can't say one counts one way and another, another way. It just so happened that there was a lot of demand for Swift's evermore. Would a lot of albums with months of vinyl pre-orders rack up similar numbers? Probably not.
In the end, fans have the opportunity to purchase the vinyl during the actual release week- maybe the vinyl would have sold 100K for the week with a smaller pre-order window, and maybe not. The same could be said for album redemptions from purchasing concert tickets; it's all speculation, especially as the redemption rate was relatively low (with certain acts faring better than others).
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jun 12, 2021 9:39:14 GMT -5
^Another issue is that pre-orders can be cancelled under certain conditions.
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