Billboard Hot 100: 09/18/2021

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Sept 5, 2021 21:09:54 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Sept 5, 2021 21:06:15 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

Young thug’s 2nd number 1 just feels right 🤞🏽🤞🏽

Third*

*fourth, if you count This is America

[iHype.]

“Way 2 Sexy” as #1 would be continuing many traditions…

“I’m Too Sexy” going #1
“Sexy & I Know It” (unofficially interpolated) going #1
“Look What You Made Me Do” (officially interpolated) going #1

Fourth time “I’m Too Sexy” indirectly a #1.

“Havana” going #1
“This Is America” (uncredited) going #1
“Franchise” going #1

Fourth consecutive year Young Thug was featured on a #1.

[Choco]

I believe if we go by the day 2 drops there should be some pause to make accurate predictions. Does it level off here? Does it keep dropping? If so, does it drop below 2m for all tracks? It's too early to know and these early predictions are just gonna be laughable by the end of the week.

[atg]

I’m not gonna lie, Way 2 Sexy is a better song in context of the music video in comparison to the song standalone. I have no problems streaming the music video on YouTube, but keep that outta my Spotify and Apple Music 🤧.

Still praying he pushes Fair Trade or IMY2 next to fully appeal to the public on the 2 best songs on the whole album.

[Choco]

Sept 6, 2021 0:01:38 GMT -5 atg said:

I’m not gonna lie, Way 2 Sexy is a better song in context of the music video in comparison to the song standalone. I have no problems streaming the music video on YouTube, but keep that outta my Spotify and Apple Music 🤧.

It's a meme song I guess. I was also mildly amussed by the video but the song...

I wouldn't hold my breath on Drake or the label pushing too many singles after release. They can probably get better peaks with standalones, because save for the rare case like "In My Feelings", post release singles don't really do much on streaming after a while.

[Enigma.]

W2S is #1 on Spotify with 2.37M, only marginally ahead of GWG though

[violentdreams]

Third day numbers for CLB are 29.3m, down from 44.5m yesterday. These drops aren't good at all, something about this album just isn't resonating with people.

[gikem]

Sept 6, 2021 7:37:20 GMT -5 violentdreams said:

Third day numbers for CLB are 29.3m, down from 44.5m yesterday. These drops aren't good at all, something about this album just isn't resonating with people.

If that’s the case, then why is he still holding the entire top 21 of AM on his 4th day?

[violentdreams]

Sept 6, 2021 7:42:17 GMT -5 gikem said:

Sept 6, 2021 7:37:20 GMT -5 violentdreams said:

Third day numbers for CLB are 29.3m, down from 44.5m yesterday. These drops aren't good at all, something about this album just isn't resonating with people.

If that’s the case, then why is he still holding the entire top 21 of AM on his 4th day?

Probably because AM is a weak platform compared to Spotify and even if he was tanking his lowest song is still vastly outperforming whatever the biggest non-CLB song is.

[thegreatdivine]

Sept 6, 2021 7:37:20 GMT -5 violentdreams said:

Third day numbers for CLB are 29.3m, down from 44.5m yesterday. These drops aren't good at all, something about this album just isn't resonating with people.

It doesn't help that he dropped the album on labor day weekend when most people will be partying from Friday-Monday. It probably won't show any gains till Tuesday's update when people go back to streaming like usual.

Also, we need to stop acting like Spotify is the only source of streams. I get we prioritize it because it's the only audio streaming platform that provides numbers but we all know that most of Drake's US-based fans prefer to stream his songs on Apple Music. Dark Lane Demo Tapes flopped on Spotify but still managed 270M streams in it's first week because of its performance on Apple Music and the entire album is still occupying the top 21 on that platform.

[thegreatdivine]

Sept 6, 2021 7:44:56 GMT -5 violentdreams said:

Sept 6, 2021 7:42:17 GMT -5 gikem said:

If that’s the case, then why is he still holding the entire top 21 of AM on his 4th day?

Probably because AM is a weak platform compared to Spotify and even if he was tanking his lowest song is still vastly outperforming whatever the biggest non-CLB song is.

How is AM weak? Aren't there more paid US subscribers on AM than on Spotify? The rappers who manage over 100M+ streams with every album get most of their streams from AM and Spotify favors more melodic tunes. I'd say Spotify users aren't connecting with the album before I'd say people in general aren't.

[violentdreams]

Sept 6, 2021 7:50:24 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Sept 6, 2021 7:44:56 GMT -5 violentdreams said:

Probably because AM is a weak platform compared to Spotify and even if he was tanking his lowest song is still vastly outperforming whatever the biggest non-CLB song is.

How is AM weak? Aren't there more paid US subscribers on AM than on Spotify? The rappers who manage over 100M+ streams with every album get most of their streams from AM and Spotify favors more melodic tunes. I'd say Spotify users aren't connecting with the album before I'd say people in general aren't.

Positionally AM isn't as strong as Spotify at all, so if The Remorse debuted with 3m-4m, and Hurricane is at like 1.2m-1.5m, even if the former was dropping significantly it still has a long ways to go before it goes under the latter. That's all I'm saying, you can't really judge by his positions when everything under him is so weak and he has a lot of room to drop and still stay above everything else. Of course I can't argue one way or another about what is likely happening, maybe it really is stable on there, maybe it isn't, there's no way to know for sure.

[kierz7]

CLB | Day 3: 60.6M

If we compare it to “DONDA”...

DONDA.
1st day: 95M
2nd day: 104M (+9%)
3rd day: 70M (-33%)
4th day: 53.8M (-23%)

Certified Lover Boy.
1st day: 153.4M
2nd day: 89.9M (-41%)
3rd day: 60.6M (-33%)

[Just saw this on •ATRL•]

[thegreatdivine]

Sept 6, 2021 8:00:24 GMT -5 violentdreams said:

Sept 6, 2021 7:50:24 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

How is AM weak? Aren't there more paid US subscribers on AM than on Spotify? The rappers who manage over 100M+ streams with every album get most of their streams from AM and Spotify favors more melodic tunes. I'd say Spotify users aren't connecting with the album before I'd say people in general aren't.

Positionally AM isn't as strong as Spotify at all, so if The Remorse debuted with 3m-4m, and Hurricane is at like 1.2m-1.5m, even if the former was dropping significantly it still has a long ways to go before it goes under the latter. That's all I'm saying, you can't really judge by his positions when everything under him is so weak and he has a lot of room to drop and still stay above everything else. Of course I can't argue one way or another about what is likely happening, maybe it really is stable on there, maybe it isn't, there's no way to know for sure.

I agree with this, this isn't what I'm debating. I'm just saying that every rapper's strongest streaming platform is AM and AM's streams weigh more because they have the most paid subscribers in the US compared to every other audio streaming service.

Maybe strongerq has the numbers but Dark Lane Demo Tapes completely bombed on Spotify on it's first week, yet folklore, which was crazy stable on Spotify in it's first week but weaker on AM only did 20 million streams more in it's first week.

I'm not denying CLB's performance on Spotify is weak but you have to remember the context for rappers and how they always pull most of their streams from AM.

Every Drake release from Views has had most of it's streams emerge from AM as opposed to Spotify.

[Choco]

Ain't Drake still on pace to set a streaming record week anyways?

I wouldn't say weak overall just massively frontloaded.

Since it is in my opinion overhyped and just plain not a good album it kinda makes sense. Hype was crazy high but the music is not gonna have legs.

[chartfreak]

Drake's attorney has been working overtime!

[fridayteenage]

us day 3, top 3 songs:
sour 3.99
2.17
1.86
Highest non-olivia song: #9

clb 2.37
2.35
2.21
Highest non-drake song: #7

Getting closer.

[bigolefreak]

There were still more potential singles from Scorpion (and even Dark Lane Demo Tapes) that WAY 2 SEXY being the 'single' from CLB feels very... undercooked. But the video made me love it. #1 on Spotify US too, the people are loving it too

[violentdreams]

Sept 6, 2021 8:14:34 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Sept 6, 2021 8:00:24 GMT -5 violentdreams said:

Positionally AM isn't as strong as Spotify at all, so if The Remorse debuted with 3m-4m, and Hurricane is at like 1.2m-1.5m, even if the former was dropping significantly it still has a long ways to go before it goes under the latter. That's all I'm saying, you can't really judge by his positions when everything under him is so weak and he has a lot of room to drop and still stay above everything else. Of course I can't argue one way or another about what is likely happening, maybe it really is stable on there, maybe it isn't, there's no way to know for sure.

I agree with this, this isn't what I'm debating. I'm just saying that every rapper's strongest streaming platform is AM and AM's streams weigh more because they have the most paid subscribers in the US compared to every other audio streaming service.

Maybe strongerq has the numbers but Dark Lane Demo Tapes completely bombed on Spotify on it's first week, yet folklore, which was crazy stable on Spotify in it's first week but weaker on AM only did 20 million streams more in it's first week.

I'm not denying CLB's performance on Spotify is weak but you have to remember the context for rappers and how they always pull most of their streams from AM.

Every Drake release from Views has had most of it's streams emerge from AM as opposed to Spotify.

Of course, I shouldn't have to preface every post I make by saying that an underperformance for Drake is still great for a lot of other artists. But an underperformance is an underperformance all the same, and assuming the drops on AM are proportional to Spotify (which is most certainly a possibility), he doesn't have much to fall back on as an excuse. It's a diverse and trendy album, about as varied as Scorpion, not a ten track magnum opus where he's barring out over golden era hip-hop production. It's pretty much exactly in line with the rest of his discography stylistically, it's just the music seems to be turning off more people this time around, and more than likely it's because it isn't as good as his other albums. As it would turn out, a below average Drake album still has a wide audience, just not wide enough to clear the high bar he's set for himself.

[thegreatdivine]

violentdreams well, if what you say is indeed true, time will tell.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 09/05/21

Drake - Certified Lover Boy
1(+2) Way 2 Sexy 2,368,580 (-865,232)
2(-1) Girls Want Girls 2,353,044 (-1,069,318)
3(-1) Fair Trade 2,214,073 (-1,103,783)
4(+1) Knife Talk 1,959,250 (-719,339)
5(-1) Champagne Poetry 1,835,240 (-938,094)
6(=) TSU 1,741,872 (-903,296)
8(+1) No Friends In The Industry 1,512,545 (-814,361)
9(-2) Papi's Home 1,480,115 (-909,749)
10(-2) In the Bible 1,462,137 (-916,751)
11(=) N 2 Deep 1,393,806 (-802,068)
12(-2) Love All 1,388,544 (-914,924)
15(-2) Pipe Down 1,188,132 (-710,363)
16(-4) 7am On Bridle Path 1,164,784 (-765,605)
17(-3) IMY2 1,116,067 (-667,413)
18(-2) Race My Mind 1,044,349 (-646,004)
20(-3) You Only Live Twice 989,566 (-667,966)
23(-4) Yebba’s Heartbreak 946,001 (-602,335)
27(-6) Fountains 880,260 (-551,089)
28(-6) Get Along Better 855,638 (-548,175)
31(-8) Fucking Fans 751,956 (-520,797)
33(-9) The Remorse 711,831 (-501,036)
Total Streams: 29,357,790

Kanye West - DONDA
13(+5) Hurricane 1,361,267 (-238,864)
21(+4) Off the Grid 982,878 (-170,185)
24(+6) Moon 934,829 (+3,753)
32(-1) Jail 751,062 (-165,574)
34(=) Praise God 681,819 (-120,512)
43(-2) Believe What I Say 538,331 (-100,270)
51(-5) Jonah 456,440 (-86,988)
52(+2) Pure Souls 430,206 (-68,690)
53(=) Heaven and Hell 427,349 (-73,661)
54(+1) Remote Control 420,098 (-72,647)
55(-4) Ok Ok 418,903 (-89,340)
61(=) No Child Left Behind 380,126 (-59,764)
62(-5) Junya 379,646 (-81,148)
64(-5) 24 377,348 (-74,414)
78(-14) God Breathed 339,286 (-84,363)
80(-9) Jail pt 2 333,121 (-64,902)
87(-7) Keep My Spirit Alive 315,348 (-55,714)
89(-8) New Again 314,401 (-53,522)
91(-9) Jesus Lord 307,532 (-58,737)
95(-10) Come to Life 301,099 (-52,409)
Total Streams: 11,196,440

7(+8) The Kid LAROI - STAY 1,553,636 (-193,906)
14(+6) Lil Nas X - INDUSTRY BABY 1,323,440 (-155,995)
19(+7) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 1,039,166 (-83,376)
22(+5) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 948,180 (-110,525)
25(+3) Doja Cat - Need to Know 917,692 (-111,631)
26(+3) Baby Keem - family ties 891,046 (-99,787)
29(+4) Billie Eilish - Happier Than Ever 823,846 (-36,780)
30(+2) Doja Cat - Kiss Me More 792,696 (-97,556)
35(=) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 659,705 (-99,384)
36(=) Lil Nas X - MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) 653,476 (-70,949)
37(=) Sleepy Hallow - 2055 647,034 (-53,775)
38(=) Doja Cat - Woman 628,903 (-58,652)
39(=) Dua Lipa - Levitating 586,507 (-77,822)
40(=) Farruko - Pepas 582,636 (-64,931)
41(+1) Måneskin - Beggin' 560,251 (-70,122)
42(+1) Olivia Rodrigo - traitor 556,170 (-43,483)
44(=) Doja Cat - Get Into It (Yuh) 515,056 (-53,317)
45(=) Walker Hayes - Fancy Like 513,359 (-50,627)
47(+1) Olivia Rodrigo - deja vu 486,572 (-41,947)
48(+4) Steve Lacy - Dark Red 482,889 (-18,464)
50(=) Doja Cat - Ain't Shit 467,761 (-41,044)
56(+17) THE ANXIETY, WILLOW, Tyler Cole - Meet Me At Our Spot 417,361 (+20,220)
58(+5) Surf Curse - Freaks 410,036 (-22,420)
59(-1) The Weeknd - Take My Breath 402,659 (-51,504)
60(=) CORPSE, Night Lovell - HOT DEMON B!TCHES NEAR U ! ! ! 401,314 (-46,713)
63(+2) Tai Verdes - A-O-K 378,677 (-43,305)
65(-3) Lizzo - Rumors 375,982 (-56,564)
66(+2) Eslabon Armado, DannyLux - Jugaste y Sufrí 374,006 (-33,765)
69(-3) Meek Mill - Sharing Locations 366,559 (-53,995)
71(-2) The Weeknd - Save Your Tears Remix 361,342 (-41,372)
72(-5) Megan Thee Stallion - Thot Shit 360,080 (-52,483)
75(+9) PinkPantheress - Pain 345,223 (-18,789)
77(+1) Aventura, Bad Bunny - Volví 339,951 (-42,351)
79(+4) Trippie Redd - Miss the Rage 333,475 (-31,092)
83(-13) Meek Mill - Blue Notes 2 325,542 (-76,383)
84(+2) Olivia Rodrigo - brutal 325,360 (-25,017)
89(+3) Giveon - Heartbreak Anniversary 315,365 (-27,392)
90(+1) Doja Cat, The Weeknd - You Right 310,405 (-28,177)
92(+3) Trippie Redd - Rich MF 305,553 (-23,373)
93(+3) Trippie Redd - Matt Hardy 999 304,097 (-24,318)
94(+7) A-Wall - Loverboy 303,834 (-15,787)
97(-4) Post Malone - Motley Crew 294,192 (-38,069)

101(-7) Sueco - Paralyzed 287,638 (-42,467)
109(+16) Yot Club - YKWIM? 272,007 (-4,691)
110(-7) Marshmello - Leave Before You Love Me 272,001 (-42,035)
118(+4) Blueface, Og Bobby Billions - Outside (Better Days) 262,695 (-18,437)
119(-1) Jordan Davis, Luke Bryan - Buy Dirt 262,620 (-22,955)
124(-4) Lil Tecca - REPEAT IT 258,931 (-23,557)
126(-2) Måneskin - I WANNA BE YOUR SLAVE 256,896 (-20,557)
131(-3) Clinton Kane - I GUESS I'M IN LOVE 248,510 (-24,800)
136(+4) PinkPantheress - Just for me 243,052 (-14,085)
141(-28) Halsey - I am not a woman, I'm a god 237,759 (-58,310)
153(+3) Roddy Ricch - Late At Night 228,286 (-15,063)
172(-24) Shawn Mendes - Summer of Love 216,197 (-32,590)
174(+4) The Weeknd - Save Your Tears 213,709 (-15,327)
177(-11) Skrillex - Don't Go 210,587 (-26,275)
181(-16) Camila Cabello - Don't Go Yet 207,252 (-29,910)
186(-1) Blxst, Tyga - Chosen 205,068 (-21,153)
188(-2) BTS - Butter 202,998 (-22,882)
194(-10) Tiësto, KAROL G - Don't Be Shy 199,211(-27,526)
195(-6) BIA - WHOLE LOTTA MONEY Remix 198,527 (-24,312)

Total Streams for Save Your Tears: 575,051

Even despite massive drops, Certified Lover Boy has already accumulated 155,294,793 streams in the U.S. - already the third biggest drop of 2021. Tomorrow, it'll surpass DONDA as the biggest album bomb of the year (as I predicted it would).

[Enigma.]

Sept 6, 2021 8:06:48 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

CLB | Day 3: 60.6M

That must be missing Pandora at least, no way CLB did so little on other platforms if it did 29m on Spotify...

[shaz196]

Even if AM is weaker than Spotify in general, Drake is considerably stronger on AM than most other artists. Spotify streams made up less than 30% of DLDT's first week streams and less than 40% of Scorpion's first week streams. I still think the odds that CLB finishes with over 600 million US streams are very high.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Sept 6, 2021 8:06:48 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

CLB | Day 3: 60.6M

If we compare it to “DONDA”...

DONDA.
1st day: 95M
2nd day: 104M (+9%)
3rd day: 70M (-33%)
4th day: 53.8M (-23%)

Certified Lover Boy.
1st day: 153.4M
2nd day: 89.9M (-41%)
3rd day: 60.6M (-33%)

[Just saw this on •ATRL•]

Is this global spotify? And I don't really see what the big deal about the drops are if he still outpeaked DONDA on consecutive days

[shaz196]

Sept 6, 2021 10:00:57 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Sept 6, 2021 8:06:48 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

CLB | Day 3: 60.6M

That must be missing Pandora at least, no way CLB did so little on other platforms if it did 29m on Spotify...

Those are global Spotify streams

[Enigma.]

Ah sorry misunderstood there.

[lurker2]

Doing some napkin math, Drake has 150 million Spotify streams over the first three days. Assuming this is ~1/3 of his total streams, he just needs ~50 million Spotify streams for his album to likely reach 600 million streams. This would mean it would need to average 12.5 million streams/day on Spotify, which seems very doable for him?

[Groovy]

Can't wait for next week when most of the CLB and Donda are gone and Ed Sheeran gets his third number one.

[violentdreams]

Sept 6, 2021 10:02:34 GMT -5 shaz196 said:

Even if AM is weaker than Spotify in general, Drake is considerably stronger on AM than most other artists. Spotify streams made up less than 30% of DLDT's first week streams. I still think the odds that CLB finishes with over 600 million US streams are high.

I don't think you understood what I meant by pointing out how weak AM is, I only said that to point out why him having all 21 songs in the top 21 positions doesn't necessarily mean he's stable. Obviously he's much stronger on there than Spotify, that wasn't my point. Though, again, if he's dropping on there proportionally to how badly he's dropping on Spotify, then it still means he's underperforming. We'll deal with that when we get there.

[After Minutes]

This genuinely makes me think that had it been announced and dropped on a Friday Donda would've done better weekly numbers than CLB, at least on spotify