algo
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Post by algo on Sept 6, 2021 10:14:44 GMT -5
Can't wait for next week when most of the CLB and Donda are gone and Ed Sheeran gets his third number one. today i realized ed sheeran's only #1s are perfect and shape of you |
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Sept 6, 2021 10:16:57 GMT -5
Can't wait for next week when most of the CLB and Donda are gone and Ed Sheeran gets his third number one. For the week of DONDA's release - a week where Bad Habits took the top spot on radio, Ashres still has STAY as having a 100 point gap between it and Bad Habits. They could pull more sales shenanigans to bring it to the top but STAY is still dominant on streaming and still surging in radio plus we'll still have to see how Way 2 Sexy plays for the rest of the week and the next. |
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shaz196
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Post by shaz196 on Sept 6, 2021 10:17:46 GMT -5
Even if AM is weaker than Spotify in general, Drake is considerably stronger on AM than most other artists. Spotify streams made up less than 30% of DLDT's first week streams. I still think the odds that CLB finishes with over 600 million US streams are high. I don't think you understood what I meant by pointing out how weak AM is, I only said that to point out why him having all 21 songs in the top 21 positions doesn't necessarily mean he's stable. Obviously he's much stronger on there than Spotify, that wasn't my point. Though, again, if he's dropping on there proportionally to how badly he's dropping on Spotify, then it still means he's underperforming. We'll deal with that when we get there. My comment had nothing to do with the positions on the AM chart but the fact that a much larger percentage of his weekly streams will come from AM meaning he should be able to clear 600 million US streams. Is that an underperformance? Well yeah if HDD's intial projection was 650-700 million streams, but that wasn't the point of my comment. |
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Post by violentdreams on Sept 6, 2021 10:20:08 GMT -5
I don't think you understood what I meant by pointing out how weak AM is, I only said that to point out why him having all 21 songs in the top 21 positions doesn't necessarily mean he's stable. Obviously he's much stronger on there than Spotify, that wasn't my point. Though, again, if he's dropping on there proportionally to how badly he's dropping on Spotify, then it still means he's underperforming. We'll deal with that when we get there. My comment had nothing to do with the positions on the AM chart but the fact that a much larger percentage of his weekly streams will come from AM meaning he should be able to clear 600 million US streams. Is that an underperformance? Well yeah if HDD's intial projection was 650-700 million streams, but that wasn't the point of my comment. Alright, I thought you were responding to me saying "AM is a weaker platform than Spotify" by insinuating I meant Drake's streams were weaker there because it's positionally weaker, but obviously you were making an different point altogether so carry on. |
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Sept 6, 2021 10:20:41 GMT -5
Can't wait for next week when most of the CLB and Donda are gone and Ed Sheeran gets his third number one. For the week of DONDA's release - a week where Bad Habits took the top spot on radio, Ashres still has STAY as having a 100 point gap between it and Bad Habits. They could pull more sales shenanigans to bring it to the top but STAY is still dominant on streaming and still surging in radio plus we'll still have to see how Way 2 Sexy plays for the rest of the week and the next. I'm not talking about Bad Habits. |
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Post by thegreatdivine on Sept 6, 2021 10:20:53 GMT -5
Doing some napkin math, Drake has 150 million Spotify streams over the first three days. Assuming this is ~1/3 of his total streams, he just needs ~50 million Spotify streams for his album to likely reach 600 million streams. This would mean it would need to average 12.5 million streams/day on Spotify, which seems very doable for him? For reference purposes, according to HDD, CLB got 230M US streams in it's first day. It'd need 370M US streams over the next 6 days of the tracking week to pull at least 600M streams. m.hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=328143&title=NEW-RELEASES%3A-DRAKE%27S-BIG-BOY |
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spiritboy
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Post by spiritboy on Sept 6, 2021 10:23:13 GMT -5
Can't wait for next week when most of the CLB and Donda are gone and Ed Sheeran gets his third number one. Ed has no chance of grabbing #1. I'll be happy with top 10 debut for Shivers. |
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Sept 6, 2021 10:26:11 GMT -5
Can't wait for next week when most of the CLB and Donda are gone and Ed Sheeran gets his third number one. Ed has no chance of grabbing #1. I'll be happy with top 10 debut for Shivers. Considering Visiting Hours made the almighty #75 with a big reveal and a performance video, even that would be better than I'd predict. |
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spiritboy
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Post by spiritboy on Sept 6, 2021 10:30:57 GMT -5
Ed has no chance of grabbing #1. I'll be happy with top 10 debut for Shivers. Considering Visiting Hours made the almighty #75 with a big reveal and a performance video, even that would be better than I'd predict. That was a promo single though. Shivers will be pushed as the second single, i'm sure Ed is planning some promo for the song. |
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Sept 6, 2021 10:32:47 GMT -5
For the week of DONDA's release - a week where Bad Habits took the top spot on radio, Ashres still has STAY as having a 100 point gap between it and Bad Habits. They could pull more sales shenanigans to bring it to the top but STAY is still dominant on streaming and still surging in radio plus we'll still have to see how Way 2 Sexy plays for the rest of the week and the next. I'm not talking about Bad Habits. Oh whoops lol. Didn't know he was releasing a new song this week |
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Post by Naos on Sept 6, 2021 11:28:08 GMT -5
Ed has no chance of grabbing #1. I'll be happy with top 10 debut for Shivers. Considering Visiting Hours made the almighty #75 with a big reveal and a performance video, even that would be better than I'd predict. And that sucks given it's probably his best song since "Galway Girl". Which also didn't get a push in the US. |
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Sept 6, 2021 12:13:31 GMT -5
Something for the gays
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shaz196
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Post by shaz196 on Sept 6, 2021 12:19:24 GMT -5
Shouldn't Bad Habits have a good chance at going #1 after the departure of the Donda and CLB tracks?
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Sept 6, 2021 12:23:35 GMT -5
Shouldn't Bad Habits have a good chance at going #1 after the departure of the Donda and CLB tracks? As I said, STAY still has about an 100 point lead currently and it's still rising on radio, only a few days away from dethroning Bad Habits. STAY is also still way ahead on streaming as well. As I said, they could do some sales shenanigans to pull ahead but otherwise STAY's ahead. |
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chanman
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Post by chanman on Sept 6, 2021 12:47:09 GMT -5
US Spotify - 09/05/21
35( =) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 659,705 ( -99,384) As we're speaking about Ed. I just noticed that he has to muscle his way back up Spotify in time for his next release. Stuck at #35 for 3 days just tells me Drake is still going strong. But at least some artists are inching their way back up by default of Drake's decrease in streams. |
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jaffery
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Post by jaffery on Sept 6, 2021 13:10:21 GMT -5
Ed has no chance of grabbing #1. I'll be happy with top 10 debut for Shivers. Considering Visiting Hours made the almighty #75 with a big reveal and a performance video, even that would be better than I'd predict. He ainβt drake, if itβs not a single itβs not going top 10 in America especially when itβs the type of song you will listen to once a year |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Sept 6, 2021 13:16:14 GMT -5
kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2021/09/06
1(=) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 91.50(-0.07)
2(=) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 87.29(-0.43)
3(=) The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber - STAY 86.68(+1.78) +
4(=) Doja Cat - Kiss Me More (feat. SZA) 83.39(-0.83) +
5(=) Dua Lipa - Levitating (feat. DaBaby) 72.32(-0.74)
6(=) Olivia Rodrigo - deja vu 70.45(-0.91)
7(=) Lil Nas X - MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) 59.57(-0.31)
8(=) The Weeknd - Save Your Tears (x17) 55.05(+0.20)
9(+1) Duncan Laurence - Arcade (feat. FLETCHER) 53.65(-0.13)
10(-1) Doja Cat & The Weeknd - You Right 53.48(-0.41)
12(+1) Marshmello & Jonas Brothers - Leave Before You Love Me 46.98( +1.53) +
16(=) Thomas Rhett - Country Again 41.04(+0.67)
25(+4) Megan Thee Stallion - Thot S**t 33.89(+0.64) + 32(+3) MΓ₯neskin - Beggin 31.09(+0.92) 56(+4) Luke Combs - Cold As You 21.37(+0.54) 64(+4) Shawn Mendes & Tainy - Summer Of Love 19.41(+0.54)
-(-) Elton John & Dua Lipa - Cold Heart (PNAU Remix) 8.90(+0.80) + -(-) Tainy X Yandel - Deja Vu 6.48(+0.68)
-(-) Carlos Vives/mau & Ricky - Besos En Cualquier Horario 0.85(+0.81) +
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Post by nathanalbright on Sept 6, 2021 13:35:48 GMT -5
Is this going to be another Sky Ferrerira situation here?
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Sept 6, 2021 13:39:30 GMT -5
Can't wait for next week when most of the CLB and Donda are gone and Ed Sheeran gets his third number one. Ed has no chance of grabbing #1. I'll be happy with top 10 debut for Shivers. I wouldn't say no chance, I doubt which ever debuts at 1 Drake song stays there and Shivers should get a good push on streaming and the radio and Ed sells good so it's not out the picture. |
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atg
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Post by atg on Sept 6, 2021 14:27:54 GMT -5
Ed has no chance of grabbing #1. I'll be happy with top 10 debut for Shivers. I wouldn't say no chance, I doubt which ever debuts at 1 Drake song stays there and Shivers should get a good push on streaming and the radio and Ed sells good so it's not out the picture. If Shivers gets pushed as a big single, then #1 or #2 will definitely be a factor. Ed has always peaked in the top 2 with his lead singles or the single that catches on the most (at least with his last 3 eras + Bad Habits). We just gotta hope this could be the x era again and he gets multiple top 10 hits off of =. |
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π‘πππππ€
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Post by π‘πππππ€ on Sept 6, 2021 15:36:44 GMT -5
Is this going to be another Sky Ferrerira situation here? what does she have to do with drake & Kanye Also LOOK at βmeet me at our spotβ gaining like that π₯° |
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Post by nathanalbright on Sept 6, 2021 15:39:45 GMT -5
My post was in reply to a comment on Chloe's solo single that was later deleted. I'm not sure why people post and delete so frequently.
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rideordie
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Post by rideordie on Sept 6, 2021 18:07:31 GMT -5
That Chloe cover looks similar to motivation..
Very interested to see how her new song will do. Itβs kinda big on tik tok. Her snippet that is
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Sept 6, 2021 21:04:51 GMT -5
We haven't even heard the Shivers song... I think BH proved he's not an automatic #1 debut. It will depend on the song.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Sept 6, 2021 22:25:37 GMT -5
^Shape of You has been the only song Ed Sheeran to debut so far at #1. So, he's more likely not to debut at #1 unless the song gets an extraordinary response that week.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Sept 6, 2021 22:28:51 GMT -5
Yikes. Facebook just suggested the group BTS - Army for me ...
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higilo
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Post by higilo on Sept 6, 2021 22:43:53 GMT -5
Yikes. Facebook just suggested the group BTS - Army for me ... Facebook payola |
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Post by thegreatdivine on Sept 7, 2021 0:54:12 GMT -5
We haven't even heard the Shivers song... I think BH proved he's not an automatic #1 debut. It will depend on the song. While Ed has 8 Hot 100 top 10 hits spanning his entire career, 4 of them have debuted in the top 10. #1. Shape of You (debuted/peaked at #1) [2017] #2. Castle on the Hill (debuted/peaked at #6) [2017] 3. I Don't Care w/ Justin Bieber (debuted/peaked at #2) [2019] 4. Bad Habits (debuted at #5, peaked at #2) [2021] It's important to note that in all 4 instances of Ed's top 10 debuts, they only happened with the first single/singles from every new era (SOY/COTH from the Divide era, IDC from the No. 6 Collaborations era and BH from the Equals era). But who knows? Perhaps he'll score another top 10 debut with the new single. |
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Sept 7, 2021 7:10:38 GMT -5
Drake has top 5 on Spotify, W2S is #1 with 2.24M. Surprised it didn't increase on a Monday.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Sept 7, 2021 7:15:59 GMT -5
Drake has top 5 on Spotify, W2S is #1 with 2.24M. Surprised it didn't increase on a Monday. Do you think the Labor Day holiday may have something to do with this? |
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