fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Oct 16, 2021 18:28:46 GMT -5
Lord help us from bts fans saying they're bigger than adele now, when I expect average adele fans bought 1 copy each, not...many.
My early guess is 27k*3.5=94.5k.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Oct 16, 2021 19:06:55 GMT -5
I'm surprised on UK iTunes, Adele is "only" selling 3x more than the #2, Cold Heart. Cold Heart only sold like 5k~ digital downloads last week, so I'd be surprised if Easy On Me does any more than 15k~ downloads there. Hello did 259k downloads first week in UK. So given that it's doing very huge streaming, it's safe to say most of her listeners awaiting the single migrated to streaming worldwide. How much is this gonna affect her *album* though? I don't think 3 million or 2 million is likely first week, I'm wondering if she can still break 1 million in US though. The latter is quite possible. Especially given that 30 will have exclusive version for Target, Amazon and Walmart. I would imagine those will have a healthy amount of preorders and its availability on streaming will make up most of whatever numbers the album manages in the US its first week out.
Also, we can probably chalk the biggest album week in the UK for 30 as well, unless = does surprisingly good numbers that it can't match.
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Oct 16, 2021 19:07:03 GMT -5
100k in digital sales is pretty great for 2021, especially when you factor in that most of those are one person buying one copy, instead of 100 people buying 70 copies or whatever BTS fans were doing this summer
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Caviar
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Post by Caviar on Oct 16, 2021 19:58:34 GMT -5
I don’t think it’s above Adele to pull a stunt later this week to boost digital sales. A digital autograph would send ME.
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Oct 16, 2021 22:00:41 GMT -5
I don’t think it’s above Adele to pull a stunt later this week to boost digital sales. A digital autograph would send ME. i don't see why she would care.
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recordyear
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Post by recordyear on Oct 16, 2021 22:44:00 GMT -5
I'm surprised on UK iTunes, Adele is "only" selling 3x more than the #2, Cold Heart. Cold Heart only sold like 5k~ digital downloads last week, so I'd be surprised if Easy On Me does any more than 20k~ downloads there. Hello did 259k downloads first week in UK. Hello is a single release without ties to album pre-order, while Easy On Me is. Instant grats from album pre-order don't reflect on single downloads. And didn't Hello do 1m+ downloads first week in the US as well? The drops are similar.
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alchemy
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Post by alchemy on Oct 16, 2021 22:51:10 GMT -5
I love that Adele said she purposely wanted to put out a song that wouldn't be as big as Hello and yet here we are breaking records once again.
Amazing.
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TakeMe
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Post by TakeMe on Oct 16, 2021 22:55:49 GMT -5
As “big” as she spose to be over there wit all the songs released...Cold Heart is her 3rd no.1?
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Oct 16, 2021 22:56:29 GMT -5
I'm surprised on UK iTunes, Adele is "only" selling 3x more than the #2, Cold Heart. Cold Heart only sold like 5k~ digital downloads last week, so I'd be surprised if Easy On Me does any more than 20k~ downloads there. Hello did 259k downloads first week in UK. Hello is a single release without ties to album pre-order, while Easy On Me is. Instant grats from album pre-order don't reflect on single downloads. And didn't Hello do 1m+ downloads first week in the US as well? The drops are similar. Really? Pre-ordering/instant grats were always a gray area sometimes (especially no clue with how non-US charts handle it) - but shouldn’t someone pre-ordering 30 and getting EOM simultaneously via iTunes count as a sale for EOM, then once the album is out, the song sale is subtracted in favor of an album sale? I know that is/was the case with “Complete My Album” when they’d buy a song individually and then buy the rest of the album once it came out. Kinda same process to me so I thought it was handled the same.
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atg
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Post by atg on Oct 16, 2021 22:58:48 GMT -5
I'm the biggest Rih stan on this forum but even I can admit that Adele's appeal is broader than basically any artist of the last 25 years.She can't be compared to anyone really. Rihanna’s comeback is still going to be crazy. Looking at the Anti era alone and how she debuted in the top 10 with Work in just less than 2 days of tracking, which would’ve been where Adele would be at had if not a bit higher she released EOM on a Wednesday. Also the album itself debuted in the top 30 with just one day of tracking, which is insane. Needed Me stayed on the charts for a long time, which helped carry over half of the Anti era also carried over to 2017, where she was also smashing with every song she was featured in like Wild Thoughts and This Is What You Came For. She also made PND chart in 2020 which is extremely rare because he usually doesn’t without Drake. Speaking of him, this technically wasn’t a comeback for Riri because she was active in 2015, but it felt just like Drake in 2017-2018 when he took that “break” for a couple months in the previous year and then came back smashing harder than ever. I wouldn’t count on Rihanna not smashing like Adele when she comes back because she’s just as lethal as her, maybe not worldwide as much but definitely in the US.
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Oct 17, 2021 0:09:21 GMT -5
i mean, rihanna's busy with her real career.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Oct 17, 2021 6:23:37 GMT -5
3.2 million for Easy on Me on Spotify yesterday. Still over twice as much as the #2.
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Oct 17, 2021 6:25:15 GMT -5
Preview for the Spotify Update: Adele dropped by about 41% in streams (I hope I did the math right).
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Post by Limited Edition on Oct 17, 2021 6:33:19 GMT -5
I'm guessing Easy On Me won't have much longevity. It's not as good as her previous lead singles or singles in general
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Oct 17, 2021 6:40:36 GMT -5
As “big” as she spose to be over there wit all the songs released...Cold Heart is her 3rd no.1? what is 3 number ones supposed to be bad
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Oct 17, 2021 6:57:21 GMT -5
I'm guessing Easy On Me won't have much longevity. It's not as good as her previous lead singles or singles in general Easy On Me is not going to have much longevity because its numbers this week are just unsustainable in the long run. Hello, drivers license, and In My Feelings are proof of this.
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Oct 17, 2021 7:04:52 GMT -5
Y'all. We just have TWO DAYS of data so far. Can we wait a bit before we say something won't have longevity? ? ? ? ?
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NeRD
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Post by NeRD on Oct 17, 2021 7:17:53 GMT -5
How does Easy On Me's second day drop rank among other big Spotify debuts?
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Oct 17, 2021 7:35:57 GMT -5
Y'all. We just have TWO DAYS of data so far. Can we wait a bit before we say something won't have longevity? ? ? ? ? Indeed, there can be super viral TikTok videos to boost it on week 20, no one can tell yet.
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Oct 17, 2021 7:49:58 GMT -5
How does Easy On Me's second day drop rank among other big Spotify debuts? Looking at the list for big Spotify debuts this year:
What's Next: 3,687,689 to 2,572,542 (30%) Wants and Needs: 3,489,465 to 2,389,934 (31%) Lemon Pepper Freestyle: 2,681,138 to 1,800,671 (32%) Leave the Door Open: 1,515,424 to 1,765,144 (14%) Peaches: 2,181,089 to 2,040,784 (6%) RAPSTAR: 2,691,084 to 2,528,101 (6%) a m a r i: 4,106,802 to 2,305,065 (44%) m y . l i f e: 4,075,637 to 2,539,788 (38%) p r i d e . i s . t h e . d e v i l: 3,545,460 to 2,311,172 (35%) a p p l y i n g . p r e s s u r e: 3,380,786 to 1,835,652 (46%) 1 0 0 . m i l ‘: 3,145,378 to 1,745,995 (45%) Butter: 1,917,442 to 1,483,641 (23%) Yonaguni: 1,727,530 to 1,533,489 (11%) WUSYANAME: 2,320,080 to 1,670,651 (28%) Bad Habits: 1,259,918 to 1,074,097 (15%) STAY: 2,345,292 to 2,118,377 (10%) Permission to Dance: 1,033,060 to 842,560 (18%) INDUSTRY BABY: 2,180,169 to 2,120,801 (3%) Take My Breath: 1,723,476 to 1,250,509 (27%) Girls Want Girls: 6,146,233 to 3,422,362 (44%) Fair Trade: 5,616,734 to 3,317,856 (41%) Way 2 Sexy: 4,962,771 to 3,233,812 (35%) Champagne Poetry: 5,953,619 to 2,773,334 (53%) Knife Talk: 3,908,883 to 2,678,589 (32%) I'm sure there's a ton I missed (especially from The Off-Season and Certified Lover Boy since I only took the Top 5 of each album) but here are the most of the big streaming debuts that I spotted.
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Oct 17, 2021 8:33:09 GMT -5
in 2 days, Adele is already in the Top 25 of radio according to kworb. TWO DAYS
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Soundcl🕤ck
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Post by Soundcl🕤ck on Oct 17, 2021 8:34:00 GMT -5
How does Easy On Me's second day drop rank among other big Spotify debuts? just a random list of big debuts, mostly 3M+ songs: *also, the songs in red are the top 10 songs with the biggest single-day streams (#10 has 4,96M) Drake - Champagne Poetry -53.4% Drake - Papi's Home -53.4%Kanye West - Jail -53.3% *after first full dayDrake - In The Bible -50.6% J.Cole - pride is the devil -48.2% J.Cole - 100 mil' -44.4% Drake - Girls Want Girls -44.3%J.Cole - amari -43.8% Lil Wayne - Let It Fly -42.2% Taylor Swift - the 1 -42% Lil Wayne - Don't Cry -41.3% Adele - Easy On Me -41.3% Drake - Fair Trade -40.9%
Taylor Swift - willow -39.3% Drake - Survival -38.6%Taylor Swift - exile -37.9% J.Cole - my life -37.6% Taylor Swift - cardigan -37.3% Juice WRLD - Conversations -35.3% Drake - Way 2 Sexy -34.8%
Post Malone - Saint-Tropez -32.3% Post Malone - Hollywood's Bleeding -31.7% Lil Wayne - Mona Lisa -30.5% Post Malone - Enemies -30.1% Drake - Emotionless -29% Post Malone - Paranoid -28.7% Lil Uzi Vert - Baby Pluto -26.3% Travis Scott - Highest In The Room -26.2% Ariana Grande - positions -25.3% Olivia Rodrigo - brutal -23.7% Drake - Nonstop -21.5%
Olivia Rodrigo - traitor -19.8% Kendrick Lamar - DNA -17.3% Post Malone - Better Now -12.6% Ariana Grande - break up with ur gf, i'm bored -7.5% Ariana Grande - 7 rings +2.9%this is the drop after their peak streams, because the songs didn't have huge debuts Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u -9.3% Olivia Rodrigo - drivers license -6.8%
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Post by Limited Edition on Oct 17, 2021 8:48:31 GMT -5
Y'all. We just have TWO DAYS of data so far. Can we wait a bit before we say something won't have longevity? ? ? ? ? I would have made that prediction with zero data available based on how it sounds
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Oct 17, 2021 8:59:34 GMT -5
Y'all. We just have TWO DAYS of data so far. Can we wait a bit before we say something won't have longevity? ? ? ? ? I would have made that prediction with zero data available based on how it sounds If songs had longevity based on sound and quality, Fancy Like wouldn't be in the Top 3
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Oct 17, 2021 10:12:37 GMT -5
kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2021/10/17
1(=) The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber - STAY 109.51(+0.50) 2(=) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 94.30(-0.60) 3(=) Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow - INDUSTRY BABY 79.55(+0.61) 4(=) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 78.28(-0.45) 5(+1) Walker Hayes - Fancy Like 69.76(+0.64) 6(-1) Doja Cat - Kiss Me More f/Sza 68.60(-1.36) 7(=) Wizkid - Essence (feat. Tems) 67.87(+0.78) 8(=) Måneskin - Beggin 66.43(+0.49) 9(=) Dua Lipa - Levitating 64.23(-0.29) 10(=) Doja Cat & The Weeknd - You Right 55.33(-0.08)
14(=) Elvie Shane - My Boy 46.35(+0.63)
16(+1) Doja Cat - Need To Know 45.29(+0.89)
21(+21) Adele - Easy On Me 36.52(+9.59) + 51(+2) Lil Nas X - THATS WHAT I WANT 23.40(+0.62)
65(+1) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 20.17(+1.01) 92(+5) Coldplay X BTS - My Universe 14.97(+0.71) -(-) Wale - Poke It Out f/J. Cole 10.19(+0.75)
-(-) Giveon - For Tonight 8.21(+0.61)
-(-) Latto - Big Energy 6.81(+0.61)
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Oct 17, 2021 10:19:00 GMT -5
Preview for the Spotify Update: Adele dropped by about 41% in streams (I hope I did the math right). Yes, you did it right. FYI, the global Spotify daily drop was slightly less harsh, at about 33%.
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85la
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Post by 85la on Oct 17, 2021 10:27:56 GMT -5
i mean, rihanna's busy with her real career. ??? So a singer releasing music ISN'T their "real career"? Easily one of the stupidest things I've seen on here.
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TakeMe
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Post by TakeMe on Oct 17, 2021 10:31:06 GMT -5
As “big” as she spose to be over there wit all the songs released...Cold Heart is her 3rd no.1? what is 3 number ones supposed to be bad Didn’t think missing a word would screw up comprehension but, it’s ONLY her third?
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Oct 17, 2021 10:34:49 GMT -5
what is 3 number ones supposed to be bad Didn’t think missing a word would screw up comprehension but, it’s ONLY her third? As big as Adele is supposed to be, Easy On Me will only be her fifth number one and seventh top ten on the Hot 100.
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85la
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Post by 85la on Oct 17, 2021 10:36:52 GMT -5
No idea why some of you were predicting 7-10M US streams. 5-7M seemed more realistic But i thought someone said she was doing 7-10M U.S ? 🤣🤣🤣 Speaking for myself, I didn't say I thought it was a most-likely estimate, just that it was not at all out of the realm of possibility, giving that the launch of her previous era gave us record-breaking sales and streaming numbers BY FAR, and that pent-up demand seemed to be even bigger for her now.
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