HITS 10/22: Thug #1 90k; Mac 67k; Beatles 59k; Coldplay 57k

[strongerq]

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=328724&title=NEW-RELEASES%253A-ADELE%252C-THUG-AND-MORE

NEW RELEASES: ADELE, THUG AND MORE

The first new music from Adele in six years is off to a strong start. Projections from the first complete day of consumption suggest "Easy on Me" (Columbia) could open with song activity north of 400k. Half of that will come from audio streams, which could reach 40m. As for new albums hitting the market, here's what we think we know today.

Young Thug (Atlantic) 85-95k total activity, 2-5k albums
The Beatles - Let It Be 50th Anniversary (Capitol) 60-70k, 50-60k

Projections for Coldplay, Zac Brown Band, Kelly Clarkson and others will be available on Monday. And now, we shift back to baseball.

Saturday, October 16, 2021

[ampersand]

I'm hoping Kelly can at least debut at #3 to keep her streak of Top 3 albums.

[iHype.]

Oct 16, 2021 18:24:53 GMT -5 ampersand said:

I'm hoping Kelly can at least debut at #3 to keep her streak of Top 3 albums.

Young Thug/Beatles are projected more than her with at least 60k, and Drake will also do more than 60k so that's already out the picture. 

She's also below Coldplay/Zach Brown Band on iTunes, so she probably won't debut top 10. I can't imagine physical sales for Christmas albums before even Halloween in the year 2021 will be more than a few thousand either. 

If she has good promotion lined up it can probably reach a new peak during December though like Carrie Underwood's Christmas album last year (debuted #8, peaked #5).

[onebuffalo]

I've been waiting for this thread. What about Reba McEntire?

[iHype.]

Oct 16, 2021 18:35:19 GMT -5 onebuffalo said:

I've been waiting for this thread. What about Reba McEntire?

Her newest album was released last week, so it doesn't apply to this thread. I think it possibly won't even chart on Billboard 200. 

Peaked at #8 on iTunes right next to Madonna's Madame X Live album. I doubt it sold more than 5k and likely has very little streaming.

[fridayteenage]

Yeah 8 years ago Wrapped in Red opened with 70k but by the end of the year it had sold more than 10x that.

[WolfSpear]

I’ll be happy with Kelly making the top 10. She’s had a consistent career up to now and I don’t see that changing. Looks like the Beatles will lead the Sales column, extending their #1 span on that chart to 57 years and 8 months.

[Enigma.]

Does that mean Coldplay will do worse than re-release of Let It Be?

And regarding Kelly, she released the album way too early, even earlier than Wrapped in Red.

[thegreatdivine]

Oct 17, 2021 3:35:18 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Does that mean Coldplay will do worse than re-release of Let It Be?

And regarding Kelly, she released the album way too early, even earlier than Wrapped in Red.

She's reached the point in her career where Christmas is the only time any music from her has any impact. She probably just wants to get a headstart before dozens of artists start releasing their own Christmas albums.

[WolfSpear]

Guess we’ll have to wait till tomorrow to see how Coldplay factors in. Has anyone listened to it yet?

[onebuffalo]

Oct 16, 2021 18:42:33 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Oct 16, 2021 18:35:19 GMT -5 onebuffalo said:

I've been waiting for this thread. What about Reba McEntire?

Her newest album was released last week, so it doesn't apply to this thread. I think it possibly won't even chart on Billboard 200. 

Peaked at #8 on iTunes right next to Madonna's Madame X Live album. I doubt it sold more than 5k and likely has very little streaming.

recordyear just reported the three Rs debuted at #91 on the top 200 chart. I wonder where it is on the country chart.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Bob Marley and the Wailers' Legend becomes the second album after Dark Side of the Moon to reach the 700 weeks charted in the Billboard 200 milestone.

[Choco]

I understand trying to avoid the clutter of Xmas albums coming at the end of the year, but before Halloween is way too early.

[Music Fan]

Thoughts on how much Finneas will sell? He's a perplexing case, where I'm sure Billie's fan base know him, the world has a general idea of who he is, can call himself a huge grammy winner, makes decent music, but won't make a splash on the charts.

Anyway, just listening to the album as I type this. Think Top 100 is doable?

[85la]

Oct 17, 2021 19:09:08 GMT -5 Choco said:

I understand trying to avoid the clutter of Xmas albums coming at the end of the year, but before Halloween is way too early.

Without looking into it too much, to me before Halloween/October seems pretty early too, but I was looking up all the best-selling Christmas albums, from Josh Groban's Noel to Michael Buble's Christmas to Mariah to Celine and of course Kelly's last one, Wrapped in Red (maybe not one of THE biggest, but decently well enough), and they were all released in October. I guess it's common practice to get a head start well before the Holiday season actually begins in order to build awareness and make sure that the albums indeed last the whole holiday season up till Christmas. They're not like studio albums with a huge blitz and all the promo the first week and then dying down progressively thereafter.

[iHype.]

Young Thug’s Punk (Atlantic) and Drake’s Certified Lover Boy (OVO/Republic) appear to be in a dead heat for #1 this week. We’re giving Punk a slight edge today, but the race could easily go the other way. Should Drake log another week at #1, UMG's 2021 tally of weeks atop the chart will reach 36. This would tie the streaming-era record set by label group last year. In the run-up to her new album, Adele’s 25 vaults back into the Top 20 this week. Look for her 21 to appear on our Top 50 as well. Mac Miller, The Beatles and Coldplay look to be headed for Top 5 debuts.

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=328748&title=TOP-20%253A-LOVER-IS-A-FIGHTER


"25" back in top 20.

[Music Fan]

Is this enough for Adele's "25" to be Top 10 in album sales?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Quite unlikely. The past week's #10 in Top Album Sales had about 8000 pure sales. There are already six albums predicted to be above 25 in the HITS top 20 and there some new albums that will probably be mostly pure sales.

[strongerq]

hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming

LW	TW	Artist	Title	Label	Total	Change	Albums	TEA	SEA
--	1	YOUNG THUG	PUNK	ATLANTIC	90,346	--	9,007	621	80,718
1	2	DRAKE	CERTIFIED LOVER BOY	OVO/REPUBLIC	83,194	-13%	886	893	81,416
--	3	MAC MILLER	FACES	WARNER	67,213	--	30,989	240	35,983
--	4	THE BEATLES	LET IT BE	CAPITOL	59,280	--	50,232	619	8,429
--	5	COLDPLAY	MUSIC OF THE SPHERES	PARLOPHONE	56,773	--	38,560	3,180	15,034
3	6	YOUNGBOY NEVER BROKE AGAIN	SINCERELY, KENTRELL	NEVER BROKE AGAIN/ATLANTIC	42,804	-18%	1,348	464	40,993
5	7	DOJA CAT	PLANET HER	KEMOSABE/RCA	41,695	-4%	338	872	40,484
8	8	MORGAN WALLEN	DANGEROUS: THE DOUBLE ALBUM	BIG LOUD/REPUBLIC	41,294	-2%	1,219	905	39,169
6	9	OLIVIA RODRIGO	SOUR	GEFFEN	40,095	-7%	6,867	777	32,451
7	10	LIL NAS X	MONTERO	COLUMBIA	36,430	-15%	399	1,034	34,997
--	11	ENHYPEN	DIMENSION : DILEMMA	BELIFT/GEFFEN	33,094	--	29,774	65	3,255
11	12	THE KID LAROI	F*CK LOVE	COLUMBIA	31,373	-3%	105	1,330	29,939
4	13	MEEK MILL	EXPENSIVE PAIN	MMG/ATLANTIC	30,658	-38%	2,437	1,106	27,115
9	14	KANYE WEST	DONDA	G.O.O.D./DEF JAM	30,181	-11%	282	323	29,576
--	15	ADELE	25	XL/BEGGARS	27,535	--	1,933	559	25,043
--	16	ICE NINE KILLS	WELCOME TO HORRORWOOD: THE SILVER SCREAM 2	FEARLESS	27,185	--	19,046	229	7,909
13	17	BILLIE EILISH	HAPPIER THAN EVER	DARKROOM/INTERSCOPE	25,844	-4%	5,163	362	20,319
2	18	DON TOLIVER	LIFE OF A DON	CACTUS JACK/WERUNIT/ATLANTIC	24,432	-66%	278	119	24,036
14	19	ROD WAVE	SOULFLY	ALAMO/SME	22,800	-5%	375	222	22,204
12	20	JUSTIN BIEBER	JUSTICE	RBMG/DEF JAM	22,486	-23%	1,240	815	20,430
--	21	ADELE	21	XL/BEGGARS	21,563	--	1,630	625	19,308
15	22	LUKE COMBS	WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET	RIVER HOUSE/COLUMBIA NASHVILLE	21,475	-4%	1,021	629	19,825
16	23	POP SMOKE	SHOOT FOR THE STARS AIM FOR THE MOON	VICTOR VICTOR/REPUBLIC	21,118	0%	501	194	20,424
18	24	DUA LIPA	FUTURE NOSTALGIA	WARNER	19,308	-5%	835	1,736	16,737
--	25	ZAC BROWN BAND	THE COMEBACK	HOME GROWN/WARNER NASHVILLE	18,872	--	12,124	744	6,004
20	26	LIL BABY	MY TURN	QUALITY CONTROL/MOTOWN/CAPITOL	18,870	-4%	231	216	18,423
21	27	POST MALONE	HOLLYWOOD'S BLEEDING	REPUBLIC	17,176	-6%	162	222	16,792
--	28	THE WEEKND	AFTER HOURS	XO/REPUBLIC	16,964	--	402	440	16,122
26	29	JUICE WRLD	LEGENDS NEVER DIE	GRADE A/INTERSCOPE	16,540	-5%	697	103	15,741
25	30	LIL BABY & LIL DURK	THE VOICE OF THE HEROES	ALAMO/SME/WOLFPACK/QUALITY CONTROL/MOTOWN	16,430	-7%	37	209	16,184
24	31	BABY KEEM	THE MELODIC BLUE	PGLANG/COLUMBIA	16,160	-9%	48	98	16,014
27	32	HARRY STYLES	FINE LINE	COLUMBIA	15,691	-8%	3,319	215	12,157
28	33	JUICE WRLD	GOODBYE & GOOD RIDDANCE	GRADE A/INTERSCOPE	15,613	-6%	67	81	15,465
29	34	MONEYBAGG YO	A GANGSTA'S PAIN	CMG/N-LESS/INTERSCOPE	14,793	-7%	277	331	14,185
19	35	SLEEPY HALLOW	STILL SLEEP?	WINNERS CIRCLE/RCA	14,690	-26%	217	161	14,312
31	36	QUEEN	GREATEST HITS 1	HOLLYWOOD	14,688	-6%	1,814	453	12,421
33	37	LUKE COMBS	THIS ONE'S FOR YOU	RIVER HOUSE/COLUMBIA NASHVILLE	14,577	-5%	774	260	13,544
35	38	TAYLOR SWIFT	FOLKLORE	REPUBLIC	14,490	-3%	3,019	169	11,302
30	39	GLASS ANIMALS	DREAMLAND	WOLF TONE/REPUBLIC	14,456	-8%	253	383	13,820
34	40	POLO G	HALL OF FAME	COLUMBIA	14,311	-6%	109	127	14,076
32	41	HAMILTON	ORIGINAL BROADWAY CAST	UPTOWN/ATLANTIC	14,305	-8%	1,015	71	13,219
--	42	GUCCI MANE	SO ICY BOYZ	ATLANTIC	13,923	--	1,562	357	12,004
48	43	MACHINE GUN KELLY	TICKETS TO MY DOWNFALL	BAD BOY/INTERSCOPE	13,766	7%	1,723	191	11,852
37	44	MORGAN WALLEN	IF I KNOW ME	BIG LOUD	13,425	-7%	515	260	12,651
36	45	WALKER HAYES	COUNTRY STUFF	MONUMENT	13,172	-10%	321	1,840	11,011
--	46	KELLY CLARKSON	WHEN CHRISTMAS COMES AROUND...	ATLANTIC	13,016	--	11,758	277	982
43	47	EMINEM	CURTAIN CALL	SHADY/AFTERMATH/INTERSCOPE	12,972	-6%	474	346	12,153
40	48	J. COLE	THE OFF-SEASON	DREAMVILLE/ROC NATION/INTERSCOPE	12,887	-8%	1,405	65	11,418
--	49	JUICE WRLD	DEATH RACE FOR LOVE	GRADE A/INTERSCOPE	12,751	--	100	50	12,601
44	50	CHRIS STAPLETON	STARTING OVER	MERCURY NASHVILLE	12,671	-6%	1,825	620	10,227

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Coldplay improved their pure sales during the week, but apparently not enough to get a higher placement on the Billboard 200, but yes for Top Album Sales.

[recordyear]

ZBB under 20k is saddening.

[aussie1]

Adele's 21 at #21 selling 21,000 units