Billboard Hot 100: 11/27/2021

[Choco]

I think top 10 is locked for ATW. Not sure how much higher and certainly gonna be an uphill battle for #1 but at this point I'm happy with anything above #10.

[algo]

the #1 spot for all too well is gonna be dependent on how well it can hold up through the week. its not gonna earn points from radio so its gonna be all streaming/sales. if she can remain top 3 and #1 on itunes through the week, i'd say she has a shot combined with the youtube views

[dremolus - solarpunk]

In the event that extended All Too Well gets picked up by radio, I hope that they have the balls to play the full 10 minutes. It's not like Mirrors where it had no reason to be that long, you really need all 10 minutes to enjoy it and I don't know if I can go back to the truncated version.

[KeepDeanWeird]

EOM should get a decent bump from the CBS special tonight as well as the increased media leading to Friday's release.

[Amnesiac]

Nov 14, 2021 10:58:55 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

In the event that extended All Too Well gets picked up by radio, I hope that they have the balls to play the full 10 minutes. It's not like Mirrors where it had no reason to be that long, you really need all 10 minutes to enjoy it and I don't know if I can go back to the truncated version.

I agree. One of the things that made FM radio popular in the 1970s is that it would play long album cuts unedited - Billy Joel's "Captain Jack", Elton John's "Funeral for a Friend/Love Lies Bleeding", Bob Dylan's "Desolation Row", all sorts of long prog rock, psych rock, folk rock, funk, and disco songs. That was the beginning of AOR.

But we all know CHR will play the regular Taylor's Version of All Too Well instead if they have to. If there's one format that might pick up on the 10 minute version, it's Triple A. That's a format made for things like this. Dave Matthews Band and Phish are among its longtime stars. A 10 minute singer-songwriter track would fit right in there.

[iHype.]

Tbh, that is a much better second day hold then I thought for All Too Well on Spotify. It is already beating my expectations, didn't expect those first 2 days to be that good. If I had try at projecting its first 7 days on audio streaming......

Spotify:
Day 1 - 5.665 million
Day 2 - 4.143 million
Day 3 - 3 million~
Day 4 - 2.75 million~
Day 5 - 2.75 million~
Day 6 - 2.25 million~
Day 7 - 2 million~
= 22.5 million

Apple Music:
Day 1 - 2.5 million~
Day 2 - 2 million~
Day 3 - 1.5 million~
Day 4 - 1.5 million~
Day 5 - 1.25 million~
Day 6 - 1 million~
Day 7 - 1 million~
= 10.75 million

Other audio services: 4 million~ first week



Super Early Hot 100 Projections:

Ranking	Song	Points	Streams (m)	Airplay (m)	Sales (k)
1 (NE)	All Too Well	354.9	45.0	1	12.5
2	Easy On Me	310.1	21.9	81	10
3	Stay	281.6	18.4	85	5
4	Smokin' Out the Window	247.3	28.9	12	7
5	Industry Baby	242.0	17.1	67	3
6	Heat Waves	185.7	15.0	43	2.5
7	Bad Habits	184.0	9.9	64	5
8	Shivers	181.9	12.4	47	9
9	Need to Know	181.6	12.0	54	2
10	Fancy Like	168.0	14.7	31	9

[phieaglesfan712]

Nov 14, 2021 11:07:47 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

EOM should get a decent bump from the CBS special tonight as well as the increased media leading to Friday's release.

I agree. I’d be shocked if EOM didn’t stay at #1 until at least the album release.

[jayhawk1117]

Nov 14, 2021 10:10:54 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I'm highly doubtful all 12 tracks will do 8M. Let's temper our expectations again.

well that's just the average lol. I mean Easy On Me brought in 20m. I could see it but it's no guarantee plus to beat Taylor she "only" needs 7.5m

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Honestly if something other than All Too Well is number one, it wouldn't feel right. It really does feel like the biggest song in the world right now, regardless of whether it's a radio single or not.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Levitating finally out of the Mediabase top 10.

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2021 » / « 11 » / « 14 »

1(=) The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber - STAY 107.39(-1.95) -
2(=) Adele - Easy On Me 93.42(+0.78)
3(=) Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow - INDUSTRY BABY 84.20(-0.66)
4(=) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 79.66(-0.48)
5(=) Måneskin - Beggin 70.81(-0.51)
6(=) Wizkid - Essence f/Tems 67.79(-0.21)
7(=) Doja Cat - Need To Know 65.87(-0.46)
8(=) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 65.26(-1.02)
9(+1) Doja Cat - You Right f/The Weeknd 55.00(+0.39)
10(+1) Ed Sheeran - Shivers 54.65(+0.36)

17(=) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 45.10(+1.07)

18(=) Ryan Hurd & Maren Morris - Chasing After You 44.62(+1.00)

26(+1) Lil Nas X - Thats What I Want 34.26(+0.68)

43(+1) Post Malone & The Weeknd - One Right Now 24.80(+0.98)

58(+4) Neiked X Mae Muller X Polo G - Better Days 20.13(+1.22)

75(+1) Ckay - Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) 16.66(+0.61)

-(-) Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak & Silk Sonic - Smokin Out The Window 8.18(+1.02)

-(-) Taylor Swift - Message In A Bottle (Taylor's Version) (From The Vault) 5.79(+0.74)

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Btw for those who are curious what the longest songs to chart are:
(10:21) "Fear Inoculum," Tool, No. 93 peak (to date), 2019
(9:57) "Blackstar," David Bowie, No. 78 peak, 2016
(9:30) "Better Place to Be (Parts 1 & 2)," Harry Chapin, No. 86, 1976
(8:55) "Oceans (Where Feet May Fail)," Hillsong UNITED, No. 83, 2014
(8:55) "November Rain," Guns N' Roses, No. 3, 1992
(8:50) "4 Your Eyez Only," J. Cole, No. 29, 2016
(8:37) "American Pie (Parts I & II)," Don McLean, No. 1 (four weeks), 1972

Note that songs like Love to You Baby by Donna Summer, Runaway by Kanye West and Not a Bad Thing by Justin Timberlake aren't here indicating the long album versions weren't the ones to chart. All Too Well is just shy of the longest song to chart by 8 seconds but it should be the biggest since November Rain.

[fridayteenage]

ATW tops itunes, with the non-extended version.

[Gary]

Nov 14, 2021 12:41:35 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Btw for those who are curious what the longest songs to chart are:
(10:21) "Fear Inoculum," Tool, No. 93 peak (to date), 2019
(9:57) "Blackstar," David Bowie, No. 78 peak, 2016
(9:30) "Better Place to Be (Parts 1 & 2)," Harry Chapin, No. 86, 1976
(8:55) "Oceans (Where Feet May Fail)," Hillsong UNITED, No. 83, 2014
(8:55) "November Rain," Guns N' Roses, No. 3, 1992
(8:50) "4 Your Eyez Only," J. Cole, No. 29, 2016
(8:37) "American Pie (Parts I & II)," Don McLean, No. 1 (four weeks), 1972

Note that songs like Love to You Baby by Donna Summer, Runaway by Kanye West and Not a Bad Thing by Justin Timberlake aren't here indicating the long album versions weren't the ones to chart. All Too Well is just shy of the longest song to chart by 8 seconds but it should be the biggest since November Rain.

pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/180730/longest-shortest-hot-100-hits?page=1

[sheardbeard]

Nov 14, 2021 13:46:58 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

ATW tops itunes, with the non-extended version.

The 10+ minute version can't chart on iTunes. Because of its length, it's "album only": the track itself can't be purchased.

[fridayteenage]

Nov 14, 2021 13:50:35 GMT -5 sheardbeard said:

Nov 14, 2021 13:46:58 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

ATW tops itunes, with the non-extended version.

The 10+ minute version can't chart on iTunes. Because of its length, it's "album only": the track itself can't be purchased.

i know that

[sheardbeard]

Nov 14, 2021 13:54:58 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

Nov 14, 2021 13:50:35 GMT -5 sheardbeard said:

The 10+ minute version can't chart on iTunes. Because of its length, it's "album only": the track itself can't be purchased.

i know that

That’s great. Some others here might not know that.

[85la]

I have to say I just watched the short video for the ATW 10 minute version, and despite some touching moments, it was a little trying to get through. The short version I only barely like itself, and actually didn't know it existed and was a cult classic until a few months ago, but it's definitely a different type of song, and it will be interesting to see how well it performs.

I'm actually not too excited and a little loath to listen to the whole album, as I'm not as much of a fan of her pre-1989 material. Even though there are new tracks I'm still not too interested, as since they're "from the vault," I'm assuming they were written around the same time as the original album and in that vein. Or is this correct? Do some of the new tracks sound different and/or possibly written more recently?

[Envoirment]

Nov 14, 2021 12:18:57 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Honestly if something other than All Too Well is number one, it wouldn't feel right. It really does feel like the biggest song in the world right now, regardless of whether it's a radio single or not.

I think everything depends on how big of a boost "Easy On Me" gets from the CBS special tonight. It could give it a big boost on iTunes and possibly in streaming too. Especially if they add the live performance of it to Adele's youtube channel. I think it would feel fine for "Easy On Me" to be #1 if her CBS speical is massive.

I'm hoping Adele ends up taking it, but it looks like it could be very close. Taylor's SNL performance video is getting a lot of views which'll add to the massive views of the short film.

[atg]

If Taylor can pull these numbers with a technical re release of an almost decade old album, she’s truly a legend and she’s still got it. The fact that a whole 10 min song is the most popular song on the project and is an actual consideration for #1 is another thing too. I can’t wait for the TV of 1989 and to see how much damage it would cause.

[nathanalbright]

Taylor versus Adele for this week's round of top pop queen. We're obviously here to see it.

[gikem]

Nov 14, 2021 15:12:25 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Taylor versus Adele for this week's round of top pop queen. We're obviously here to see it.

Assuming Taylor, Adele, Bieber, Ed and Bruno are all in the top 10 for this chart week, it’s gonna feel like 2015 all over again.

[Raccoon]

I honestly am not sure 1989 will do what Red is doing. The fans are driving all the hype and they like Red more than 1989 I feel. At least in my circles. Thoughts?

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Nov 14, 2021 15:24:25 GMT -5 Raccoon said:

I honestly am not sure 1989 will do what Red is doing. The fans are driving all the hype and they like Red more than 1989 I feel. At least in my circles. Thoughts?

Depends on what the focal point of 1989 is. Are there any album tracks that could generate the type of interest that All Too Well has? A lot of it might also be in what the extra songs are and whether there are any special guests, but ultimately it depends on what story they’re able to tell with it. Red seems to be succeeding because there’s something new being done that they weren’t able to do as much with Fearless.

[fridayteenage]

no, the only album track that comes near the love we have for ATW is Enchanted - which is having its own moment this month, and is on Speak Now.

that said, a video for clean or new romantics would be lovely.

[spiritboy]

She should get Katy Perry for new version of Bad Blood, it would be iconic :kii:

[singingrulebritannia]

Iron Butterfly's "In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida" would easily be the longest Hot 100 song of all-time if its full 17-minute version counted...but of course, the "single version" is only a pitiful 2:52.

[fearlessarrow]

The fact that we're even discussing All Too Well as a potential #1 is crazy to me, I never expected that to happen prior to the album release. I'm still salty that "Message in a Bottle" looks like it'll be promoted at pop radio. Yeah All Too Well probably won't do so great on radio but the people need to hear it!!

[ificanthaveyou]

If the race is truly this close, I’m hoping Taylor pulls out all the stops. I would totally buy the SNL Live ATW of it to support.

[Gary]

Nov 14, 2021 17:14:03 GMT -5 singingrulebritannia said:

Iron Butterfly's "In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida" would easily be the longest Hot 100 song of all-time if its full 17-minute version counted...but of course, the "single version" is only a pitiful 2:52.

Get Ready by rare Earth was top 5 at 2:48

The album cut was 21:32

[Amnesiac]

Nov 14, 2021 17:14:03 GMT -5 singingrulebritannia said:

Iron Butterfly's "In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida" would easily be the longest Hot 100 song of all-time if its full 17-minute version counted...but of course, the "single version" is only a pitiful 2:52.

If you took this into account, "In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida" is still beaten by at least three other recordings: "Get Ready" by Rare Earth as mentioned above. A 3:18 edit of Mike Oldfield's 25:30 "Tubular Bells, Pt. 1" reached #7 in 1974 after its use as the theme to The Excorist. The next year, Kraftwerk's "Autobahn" made it to #25 on the Hot 100 with a 3:28 edit of the full 22:43 album version.

The longest unedited track to ever make any singles chart is "Blue Room" by The Orb, an incredible 39:57 in length, which was created explicitly to exploit a then-new rule that charting singles in the UK could be 40 minutes long as opposed to 20 (I'm assuming to accommodate B-sides?). Whatever the reason, The Orb got that behemoth - unedited - to #8 on the UK chart in 1992, I presume because of Orb fans realizing they could have a full album's worth of new material for the price of a single.