Billboard Hot 100: 04/30/2022

[phieaglesfan712]

I’ll be happy if it pushes Stay outside the Top 25. I just wish they would have waited a few more weeks to coincide with Stay’s 53rd week and push it recurrent.

[enwhy]

I don't think BTS fans will be able to hold their next single at the top for multiple weeks with the new rules. First week they can probably get a #1, depending on competition. After that, I'm guessing they'll fall much faster.

[fridayteenage]

Well, maybe if the competition is as lackluster as Q1 this year.

[loveless]

Apr 17, 2022 8:54:42 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Uh oh, BTS are about to take over another summer, these threads are about to be a mess again.

As opposed to this thread, which has been totally chill and normal!

But yeah agree with what others are saying, without the ability to mass buy I don't think the BTS stans will be able to make nearly as much of an impact. Until they find a new exploit I guess, but even then I doubt it will be as overwhelming as the mass buying was.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Apr 17, 2022 5:25:33 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

1.03M for Morgan on Spotify, less than half of what Jack and Harry are doing.

Harry will probably be #1 on Hot 100, thanks to airplay.

We'll see if Morgan can avoid the normal Sunday dip that affects most songs on US Spotify. The gap between First Class and As It Was seems to be shrinking a bit more there with each passing day.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2022 » / « 04 » / « 17 »

1(=) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 83.14(-1.04)
2(=) Latto - Big Energy 82.99(+0.73)
3(=) Imagine Dragons - Enemy From League Of Legends 82.09(+0.47)
4(=) Lil Nas X - THATS WHAT I WANT 79.54(+0.25)
5(=) Doja Cat - Woman 75.89(-0.23)
6(=) The Kid Laroi & Justin Bieber - Stay 72.96(-0.24)
7(=) Justin Bieber - Ghost 69.44(-0.29)
8(=) Post Malone & The Weeknd - One Right Now 56.59(+0.06)
9(=) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 56.38(+0.30)
10(=) GAYLE - abcdefu 49.20(-1.04)

12(+3) Harry Styles - As It Was 46.21(+1.67)

24(=) Jnr Choi - To The Moon 35.82(+0.72)

54(+3) Shawn Mendes - When You're Gone 22.04(+0.99)

-(-) Doja Cat - Get Into It (Yuh) 10.38(+0.76)

-(-) Jack Harlow - First Class 6.21(+1.41)

-(-) Lizzo - About Damn Time 4.65(+1.48)

[Myth X]

Apr 16, 2022 20:42:23 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Decade End charts are based on inverse points for chart runs.

When it comes to the Billboard 200 decade-end:


In the 2000s they were based on the pure sales during their chart runs


In the 2010s they were based on inverse points probably because half of the decade was based on pure sales and the other half in the SPS so it was impossible to mix them both.


So for the 2020s it would make more sense that they are based on the SPS acumulated during their charts runs instead of inverse points which isn't an accurate representation of an album success. Adele selling 830k units when it reached #1 shouldn't have the same points of Lil Durk selling 46k this week.

[iHype.]

Apr 17, 2022 10:27:29 GMT -5 Myth X said:

Apr 16, 2022 20:42:23 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Decade End charts are based on inverse points for chart runs.

When it comes to the Billboard 200 decade-end:


In the 2000s they were based on the pure sales during their chart runs


In the 2010s they were based on inverse points probably because half of the decade was based on pure sales and the other half in the SPS so it was impossible to mix them both.


So for the 2020s it would make more sense that they are based on the SPS acumulated during their charts runs instead of inverse points which isn't an accurate representation of an album success. Adele selling 830k units when it reached #1 shouldn't have the same points of Lil Durk selling 46k this week.

The 2000s Decade End was terribly done and made zero sense. 80% of the chart was albums from 2000-2004 due to the much higher album sales in the first half of the decade. The highest album released after 2005 was #44.

That would again be the case with 2020s. Albums that chart for years and years even at the bottom of the chart would accumulate millions of units that albums released later in the decade could not match no matter what. Inverse points make it so that an album released late into the decade can still chart very high if it charts in the top 5/10 very heavily throughout a year or two. It also puts a relatively similar amount of albums by release year rather than 2020-2023 albums hogging the entire list because they had 7+ years of total sales tracked and years charting at #100-200 adding heavily.

Also 2020 included tour and merch bundles in sales which already makes comparing raw units inaccurate.

They are more than likely sticking with chart runs as it also makes no sense to combine Hot 100 inverse points with Billboard 200 units. In the 2000s they did not yet assemble an All Time Billboard 200 with a formula for each year, which is also the main reason they didn’t go with a point system for that decade. However they did for the Hot 100 (all time Hot 100 premiered in 2008), and that formula then fed into its 2000s Decade End. By 2015 they assembled an All Time Billboard 200, and thus, the formula fed into the 2010s Decade End.

[iHype.]

Also, the 2010s Digital Sales and Streaming Songs lists were based on inverse points for chart runs, not raw numbers. That lets you know they are done using raw numbers for Decade End charts.

www.billboard.com/charts/decade-end/digital-song-sales/
Perfect was the Decade End Digital Sales #1 despite selling under 2 million.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Apr 16, 2022 12:52:47 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I'm tired, here's some country from just this year worth checking out

Just wanted to add one more artists because as per usual, the women are killing it in country but I finally found one male country act who's released some good country this year (and as a bonus, he's also a gay country act!). Bronco is a great evolution from Pony, highly recommend it 

[Myth X]

Apr 17, 2022 11:21:54 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Apr 16, 2022 12:52:47 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I'm tired, here's some country from just this year worth checking out

Just wanted to add one more artists because as per usual, the women are killing it in country but I finally found one male country act who's released some good country this year (and as a bonus, he's also a gay country act!). Bronco is a great evolution from Pony, highly recommend it 

Oh wow this guy is like Country Gaga. I like it

He's probably never getting a spin on country radio though.

[Enigma.]

He did a version of Born This Way last year, it's very good!

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 04/16/22

1(=) Jack Harlow - First Class 2,291,810 (-334,077)
2(=) Harry Styles - As It Was 2,171,825 (-131,566)
3(=) Morgan Wallen - Don't Think Jesus 1,032,171 (-415,954)
4(=) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 904,152 (-68,012)
5(=) Lil Nas X - INDUSTRY BABY 669,183 (-34,589)
6(=) The Kid LAROI - STAY 632,413 (-42,191)
7(+1) Imagine Dragons - Enemy 591,196 (-40,093)
8(-1) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 576,005 (-58,650)
9(=) Kodak Black - Super Gremlin 574,290 (-37,378)
10(=) Doja Cat - Woman 554,609 (-37,252)

Others:
11(+3) Carolina Gaitán - La Gaita, Mauro Castillo, Adassa, Rhenzy Feliz, Diane Guerrero, Stephanie Beatriz, Encanto Cast - We Don't Talk About Bruno 544,692 (-19,501)
12(=) Justin Bieber - Ghost 539,736 (-41,742)
13(-2) Jack Harlow - Nail Tech 515,822 (-73,256)
16(+2) Doja Cat - Need to Know 483,637 (-39,033)
17(=) Lil Nas X - THATS WHAT I WANT 482,368 (-41,588)
19(=) Lil Tjay - In My Head 460,940 (-41,475)
20(=) Camila Cabello - Bam Bam 455,370 (-46,127)
21(+2) Dove Cameron - Boyfriend 448,457 (-39,247)
22(+3) Arctic Monkeys - 505 440,045 (-29,064)
23(+1) Morgan Wallen - Wasted On You 438,923 (-42,566)
24(+2) The Walters - I Love You So 436,343 (-28,735)
26(-5) Lil Baby - Right On 428,294 (-66,690)
28(+5) Yeat - Monëy so big 423,943 (-25,066)
29(+1) WILLOW - Wait a Minute! 422,139 (-29,399)
31(+1) Steve Lacy - Dark Red 418,924 (-32,535)
32(-2) Lil Durk - Broadway Girls 417,849 (-35,953)
34(-21) Lauren Spencer-Smith - Flowers 405,959 (-160,527)
36(+1) Gunna, Future - pushin P 397,413 (-32,528)
37(+1) Tyler the Creator - See You Again 394,419 (-29,265)
38(+6) Becky G, KAROL G - MAMIII 389,728 (-8,038)
39(=) GAYLE - abcdefu 382,675 (-28,872)
40(=) Frank Ocean - Lost 372,332 (-38,699)
42(-1) Charlie Puth - Light Switch 366,699 (-38,531)
44(+4) Elley Duhé - MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT 360,796 (-27,031)
47(-2) Lil Durk - What Happened To Virgil 354,524 (-38,326)
49(+1) Post Malone - One Right Now 353,623 (-28,988)
50(+4) Dua Lipa - Levitating 347,270 (-31,815)
51(-5) Shawn Mendes - When You're Gone 345,094 (-47,435)
53(-2) Em Beihold - Numb Little Bug 340,587 (-41,997)
61(+3) Tiësto, Ava Max - The Motto 318,789 (-25,321)
62(+3) Tyler the Creator - NEW MAGIC WAND 317,536 (-25,095)
64(+5) AnnenMayKantereit, Giant Rooks - Tom's Diner 315,287 (-24,287)
66(-6) Latto - Big Energy 314,002 (-31,728)
67(+4) The Rare Occasions - Notion 310,124 (-27,124)
68(+4) Morgan Wallen - Sand in My Boots 309,790 (-26,778)
73(-12) Tate McRae - she's all i wanna be 306,359 (-38,491)
74(+10) Kay Flock, Cardi B, Dougie B, Bory300 - Shake It 306,232 (-10,660)
75(-2) Lil Baby - In a Minute 303,216 (-32,275)
76(+2) Megan Thee Stallion, Dua Lipa - Sweetest Pie 301,383 (-25,101)
79(-11) Yahritza Y Su Esencia - Soy El Unico 297,241 (-42,786)
81(+4) Doja Cat, The Weeknd - You Right 293,336 (-20,817)
82(-46) Lizzo - About Damn Time 291,566 (-139,969)
83(-30) Conan Gray - Memories 290,598 (-91,547)
84(+5) Ruth B. - Dandelions 290,047 (-17,807)
85(+3) Doja Cat - Get Into It (Yuh) 289,849 (-19,456)
92(-6) ERNEST - Flower Shops 280,152 (-32,243)
95(-13) Lauren Spencer-Smith - Fingers Crossed 279,511 (-42,633)
99(+26) Daddy Yankee, Bad Bunny - X ÚLTIMA VEZ 276,795 (+146)

103(-7) Gunna - Banking On Me 272,496 (-24,096)
105(-3) SZA - I Hate U 270,926 (-22,961)
109(+15) Anitta - Envolver 266,564 (-10,915)
110(+7) The Weeknd - Save Your Tears 266,419 (-16,600)
112(+3) Beach House - Space Song 263,962 (-20,241)
116(-4) Morgan Wallen - Cover Me Up 262,453 (-25,611)
120(-12) Cody Johnson - 'Til You Can't 259,400 (-30,999)
123(+23) 4*TOWN (From Disney and Pixar’s Turning Red), Jordan Fisher, Finneas O'Connell, Josh Levi, Topher Ngo, Grayson Villanueva - Nobody Like U 257,961 (-6,912)
124(-2) Cafuné - Tek It 257,822 (-23,398)
127(+39) DaBaby, YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Bestie 255,537 (+3,734)
131(-2) Playboi Carti - Sky 254,850 (-20,376)
132(-1) Nardo Wick - Me or Sum 253,074 (-21,233)
133(-6) BoyWithUke - IDGAF 252,100 (-23,520)
135(+3) The Weeknd - Save Your Tears Remix 250,998 (-19,849)
137(-5) The Neighbourhood - Softcore 250,270 (-23,788)
139(-9) Gunna - P power 249,498 (-25,383)
140(+17) Rauw Alejandro, Chencho Corleone - Desesperados 249,374 (-6,762)
147(+29) Leah Kate - 10 Things I Hate About You 244,394 (-2,263)
149(+2) Nicky Youre, dazy - Sunroof 243,963 (-16,071)
150(-9) Kevin Gates - Thinking with My Dick 243,642 (-24,306)
161(+18) JVKE - this is what falling in love feels like 233,615 (-12,740)
162(+7) Young Nudy, 21 Savage - EA 233,568 (-15,510)
166(+9) Vundabar - Alien Blues 232,157 (-14,824)
169(-5) Foo Fighters - Everlong 231,382 (-21,221)
177(+9) Lil Durk - AHHH HA 225,923 (-17,689)
190(+1) Yeat - Poppin 220,691 (-20,693)
191(-11) Russ - HANDSOMER Remix 219,804 (-25,993)
194(+2) Imagine Dragons - Bones 218,627 (-18,968)
195(-47) BIA, J. Cole - LONDON 218,537 (-45,185)

Total Streams for Save Your Tears: 517,417

[mms82]

Easter EOD update for Don’t Think Jesus

Still number two on Apple Music, 4:1 lead on iTunes

[Music Fan]

Lizzo is doing a lot worse than I expected her to do. The fact it barely debuted Top 50, and it's close to falling below 100 after a couple of days is not good, at all. I expected her to linger in the Top 40 or so. And it's also at #85 on AM.

[atg]

I think she’s done and probably won’t get another hit. Rumors flopping didn’t really indicate if it was over for as it could’ve just been a one time thing, but now this recent single just cements it that her hit making days are done.

[fridayteenage]

US Youtube Fri/Sat

1 +3
Unknown Artist - Unknown Title
3,074,722 +1,173,952

2 -1
Mauro Castillo - We Don't Talk About Bruno
2,876,428 +137,580

3 -1
Kodak Black - Super Gremlin
2,228,159 +136,792

4 +5
Kay Flock - Shake It feat. Cardi B, Dougie B & Bory300 (feat. Dougie B, Cardi B, Bory300 & Bory300)
2,070,013 +577,468

8 -2
Jack Harlow - First Class
1,547,468 +26,710

12 +1
Harry Styles - As It Was
1,175,158 -22,039

16 NEW
Morgan Wallen - Dont Think Jesus
1,006,050

Hmm. The day before that the unknown #1 song was labelled Lul Timm - Wawa (feat. DJ Tr3yway), which...what even is that? Maybe some tiktok thing?

[JukeboxJacob]

Happy to see Unknown Title smashing! 🔥

Anyway y’all are so quick to write Lizzo off 🤦‍♂️We’ve seen songs dip then rebound many times before, there’s still a chance

[kimberly]

Apr 17, 2022 22:19:32 GMT -5 atg said:

I think she’s done and probably won’t get another hit. Rumors flopping didn’t really indicate if it was over for as it could’ve just been a one time thing, but now this recent single just cements it that her hit making days are done.

this is a very weird narrative to push. "Rumors" was Lizzo's first song to debut in the Top 49 of the Hot 100, let alone manage a Top 5 debut. I would still very much consider Lizzo an artist on the rise, and she just needs to promote the hell out of this song and carry it up the charts with airplay support. by your logic, Dua Lipa's career would have been OVER and DONE FOR when "Levitating" debuted at No. 73. we all know how that turned out.

I'm not saying "About Damn Time" is surely going to smash and last on the Hot 100 for 294 weeks, but I think it's weird and too soon to jump to conclusions that Lizzo's career is over just because her song is performing like... a Lizzo song without a Cardi B feature normally would have performed.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Apr 18, 2022 0:35:41 GMT -5 JukeboxJacob said:

Happy to see Unknown Title smashing! 🔥

Anyway y’all are so quick to write Lizzo off 🤦‍♂️We’ve seen songs dip then rebound many times before, there’s still a chance

If it still flops, you change your pfp to the Shrek the 3rd poster

[After Minutes]

Apr 18, 2022 1:48:53 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Apr 17, 2022 22:19:32 GMT -5 atg said:

I think she’s done and probably won’t get another hit. Rumors flopping didn’t really indicate if it was over for as it could’ve just been a one time thing, but now this recent single just cements it that her hit making days are done.

this is a very weird narrative to push. "Rumors" was Lizzo's first song to debut in the Top 49 of the Hot 100, let alone manage a Top 5 debut. I would still very much consider Lizzo an artist on the rise, and she just needs to promote the hell out of this song and carry it up the charts with airplay support. by your logic, Dua Lipa's career would have been OVER and DONE FOR when "Levitating" debuted at No. 73. we all know how that turned out.

I'm not saying "About Damn Time" is surely going to smash and last on the Hot 100 for 294 weeks, but I think it's weird and too soon to jump to conclusions that Lizzo's career is over just because her song is performing like... a Lizzo song without a Cardi B feature normally would have performed.

Can we please stop making up things like the "top 49", "top 18", "top 36" or "top 2137"? Honestly in this case especially saying "top 50" would be fair enough, since her other songs would have debuted below that if not for the longevity rules

[Enigma.]

Harry is #1 on Spotify. Coachella effect?

Also up to #3 on AM (although that might be just due to Lil Baby declining).

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Apr 18, 2022 6:51:39 GMT -5 After Minutes said:

Apr 18, 2022 1:48:53 GMT -5 kimberly said:

this is a very weird narrative to push. "Rumors" was Lizzo's first song to debut in the Top 49 of the Hot 100, let alone manage a Top 5 debut. I would still very much consider Lizzo an artist on the rise, and she just needs to promote the hell out of this song and carry it up the charts with airplay support. by your logic, Dua Lipa's career would have been OVER and DONE FOR when "Levitating" debuted at No. 73. we all know how that turned out.

I'm not saying "About Damn Time" is surely going to smash and last on the Hot 100 for 294 weeks, but I think it's weird and too soon to jump to conclusions that Lizzo's career is over just because her song is performing like... a Lizzo song without a Cardi B feature normally would have performed.

Can we please stop making up things like the "top 49", "top 18", "top 36" or "top 2137"? Honestly in this case especially saying "top 50" would be fair enough, since her other songs would have debuted below that if not for the longevity rules

I'm pretty sure kim meant '40', it was a typo.

[After Minutes]

Apr 18, 2022 7:10:25 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Apr 18, 2022 6:51:39 GMT -5 After Minutes said:

Can we please stop making up things like the "top 49", "top 18", "top 36" or "top 2137"? Honestly in this case especially saying "top 50" would be fair enough, since her other songs would have debuted below that if not for the longevity rules

I'm pretty sure kim meant '40', it was a typo.

it isn't really something that applies only to this, it was just an opportunity to kind of speak up about this awkward phenomenon on pulse, because it happens all the time

[jenglisbe]

Apr 18, 2022 1:48:53 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Apr 17, 2022 22:19:32 GMT -5 atg said:

I think she’s done and probably won’t get another hit. Rumors flopping didn’t really indicate if it was over for as it could’ve just been a one time thing, but now this recent single just cements it that her hit making days are done.

this is a very weird narrative to push. "Rumors" was Lizzo's first song to debut in the Top 49 of the Hot 100, let alone manage a Top 5 debut. I would still very much consider Lizzo an artist on the rise, and she just needs to promote the hell out of this song and carry it up the charts with airplay support. by your logic, Dua Lipa's career would have been OVER and DONE FOR when "Levitating" debuted at No. 73. we all know how that turned out.

I'm not saying "About Damn Time" is surely going to smash and last on the Hot 100 for 294 weeks, but I think it's weird and too soon to jump to conclusions that Lizzo's career is over just because her song is performing like... a Lizzo song without a Cardi B feature normally would have performed.

But it's fair to have different expectations of Lizzo now than Lizzo pre-hits, though. Of course a new Lizzo single now should debut better than singles before she really had hits. And even if "Rumors" debuted better for her, it ultimately wasn't all that big of a hit. Now this new song is a slow starter, at a minimum. That's surely at least pause for concern. We can of course never say no one will have another hit when people like Billy Ray Cyrus and Elton John have had hits out of nowhere, but we can see current momentum and what patterns are being established.

[phieaglesfan712]

Heat Waves down to #3 on kWorb radio, as both Big Energy and Enemy pass HW, to set up a battle for #1:

1 (+1) Latto - Big Energy 83.58 (+0.60)
2 (+1) Imagine Dragons - Enemy From League Of Legends 82.57 (+0.48)
3 (-2) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 82.48 (-0.67)

[enwhy]

I think Lizzo messed up pretty badly by taking 3 years to start her album rollout. 2019 was a very unique time in music - pop started sounding like pop again, and new artists were having incredible success. Now we're in a pandemic world, and LNX/Billie (the other 2 2019 breakouts) have established themselves as stars through consistently dropping singles and releasing their follow-up albums in 2021.

Lizzo's situation was already more difficult, having 2 older songs both blow up. It showed people already weren't super interested in her current output. Now add a three year gap with virtually nothing new, and it seems like she might struggle to get the public's attention like that ever again.

To end on a positive note - I think her unique style and strong personality will guarantee she always has a core fanbase. Maybe she follows the CRJ gay icon model!

[gikem]

Big Energy has now overtaken Heat Waves for the overall radio #1 on Kworb. Enemy has also passed it, pushing the song down to #3 as it loses audience.

[phieaglesfan712]

Apr 18, 2022 8:14:52 GMT -5 enwhy said:

I think Lizzo messed up pretty badly by taking 3 years to start her album rollout. 2019 was a very unique time in music - pop started sounding like pop again, and new artists were having incredible success. Now we're in a pandemic world, and LNX/Billie (the other 2 2019 breakouts) have established themselves as stars through consistently dropping singles and releasing their follow-up albums in 2021.

Lizzo's situation was already more difficult, having 2 older songs both blow up. It showed people already weren't super interested in her current output. Now add a three year gap with virtually nothing new, and it seems like she might struggle to get the public's attention like that ever again.

To end on a positive note - I think her unique style and strong personality will guarantee she always has a core fanbase. Maybe she follows the CRJ gay icon model!

Also, it didn’t help that Lizzo was already over 30 when she had her breakout. Perhaps we should have seen this coming when her two older songs, Truth Hurts and Good as Hell (which were recorded when Lizzo was still in her 20s), smashed while her more recently recorded song (Juice, which was recorded after she turned 30) flopped. Lizzo is the same age as Rihanna and Adele (34), so it wouldn’t be surprising if Rumours was her last real hit. After all, Katy Perry never really had a hit after Chained to the Rhythm, and she was 32 at the time.

The 2021 breakouts look like they are going to have a similar fate as the 2019 breakouts. Don’t be surprised if in 2 years time, Kid Laroi and Olivia Rodrigo are the dominant artists in the music industry, while we’re wondering what the heck happened with Walker Hayes.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

The dramatics over Lizzo.

I wouldn’t say her career is over at all, even if this flops and even if she never has another hit again. She has a distinctive personality as a celebrity that will carry her forward regardless of her music. I could see her starring in comedies, a talk show host, whatever else outside of music that would keep her busy, leaving 2019 as her year in music when she smashed the charts. Some artists are huge for a year or two and then go on to be major in other areas.

I’d be sad though. I think Lizzo has a great style with her music, but if she had to pull back on that in order to appease labels or audiences, she may as well not do it. I think that’s why her success on the charts may be limited. What she does well, she owns, but if she can’t do it her way, it probably won’t be interesting.