enwhy
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Joined: January 2021
Posts: 638
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Post by enwhy on May 3, 2022 11:04:46 GMT -5
Hey everyone - this is a new Hot 100 prediction game. It's a bit different from the normal weekly Top 10 Predictions. I've noticed lots of debate on the discussion threads about people being too optimistic with predictions, overestimating certain artists, etc...I thought it would be fun if we could put our money where our mouths is and turn it into a competition! Here's how it works:- Each week on Friday, I'll pose 2-3 questions about the Hot 100 - 1 about the upcoming week, and 1 longer-term question
- You'll have one week to predict the outcome of both questions - predictions close at 11:59pm US Eastern Time on Thursday night!
- Correct predictions will be awarded points based on how many people guessed each option
- Guessing on both questions automatically earns you 10 participation points
- Correct guesses will earn you 10/(% of correct predictors) points - i.e. if 100% of people choose correctly, you get 10 pts., but if only 50% did, you get 20...keep that in mind as you make guesses
- We won't always know who won right away, but I will keep track!
With all that said, let's get started! Final Results are here
All Questions/Scores are here
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Post by livelightning on May 3, 2022 11:07:37 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. No
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enwhy
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Joined: January 2021
Posts: 638
Pronouns: he/him
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Post by enwhy on May 3, 2022 11:08:11 GMT -5
I'll start off with my guesses for the week! (Feel free to add commentary, extra thoughts, etc. - I want this to be fun! Just try to start with "Yes" or "No" to make the tallying easier)
Question 1: Yes - I think Jack's built up enough hype now to get a couple top 10s. TBH I think Nail Tech was kinda underrated, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it get a huge resurgence. Question 2: No - I don't know if ABT has the legs to do this. I could see top 10, but it's going to take a while to build up the radio. Might end up being more of a longevity hit.
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otaviohmg
Platinum Member
Caught up in my head, hopin' you gon' say Was it worth it? Put that work in Got me nothin'
Joined: September 2019
Posts: 1,438
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Post by otaviohmg on May 3, 2022 11:14:46 GMT -5
1. No (Bad Bunny is a big contender and probably will minimize the chances of this achievement) 2. Yes (Viral dance and performances could help to even reach the top)
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on May 3, 2022 12:05:32 GMT -5
1. Yes, First Class is certainly going back to #1. So essentially, the question is whether or not he gets at least one other Top 10. I think he does, whether it be with Nail Tech or something else.
2. Yes, I heard About Damn Time on my classic R&B station last Friday. That station rarely ever plays new songs. The last time that happened was with Uptown Funk, and we know how big that got. It's going to challenge for #1 after these albums come and go.
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joshtheking
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Joined: April 2020
Posts: 1,365
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Post by joshtheking on May 3, 2022 14:54:12 GMT -5
Great idea! I'm definitely for having more game-related things for charts.
1. No- I see this album being a big career-starter for Jack but I don't think it will impact the Top 10 outside of the already smash First Class 2. No- I think it should definitely make Top 10 though, maybe Top 5 but I think 3 is overestimating it. But we'll see!
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✨ 𝑔𝓋 ✨
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adamantly has less time here :(
Joined: December 2016
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My Charts
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Post by ✨ 𝑔𝓋 ✨ on May 3, 2022 22:14:16 GMT -5
1. Yes - It is definite that "First Class" will get a return at #1, but one more could be at Top 10, probably being "Nail Tech" or the album cut that features Drake.
2. No - "About Damn Time" could have a chance at Top 10 and Top 5 for sure, but I don't think it can go Top 3. It may miss and peak #4 before September 17.
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Music Fan
5x Platinum Member
Imma Be Boom Boom Pow because I Gotta Feelin' I'm Alive
Joined: April 2008
Posts: 5,257
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Post by Music Fan on May 3, 2022 22:22:06 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. No
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2022 7:58:23 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. No
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Post by Limited Edition on May 4, 2022 12:55:52 GMT -5
1. No 2. Yes
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 4, 2022 13:04:31 GMT -5
1. Yes - I think the album boost will be enough for another song to sneak into the top 10. 2. No - I think radio for it won't grow enough for it to reach the top 3. I would think it would eventually reach the top 10.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2022 16:27:18 GMT -5
1. Yes - First Class + the Drake feature can be top 10 at least. And First Class feels like a better representation of the Jack Harlow hype. Personally I look at Nail Tech as a buzz song to test the waters on what Jack could do solo post Industry Baby 2. No - is what i’m gonna say right now. haven’t heard the song but it’d be nice to see Lizzo get a new hit for the summer
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85la
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Joined: July 2007
Posts: 3,664
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Post by 85la on May 4, 2022 19:20:40 GMT -5
1. Yes - his popularity seems to have grown steadily over the last two years, over which he has already amassed two other top 2 hits, and he is at the advantage now of releasing his album just when his biggest hit yet is still new and smashing hard. 2. Yes - its incredible growth rate over the last few days is showing all the early signs of a top 3, or even #1 smash, and it all seems to be organic.
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kindofbiased
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Rough surf on the coast
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 1,754
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Post by kindofbiased on May 4, 2022 19:48:31 GMT -5
1. Yes - I could see maybe one of the first few songs or the one featuring Drake sneaking in to the bottom half of the top 10 2. Yes - I'm manifesting it I honestly don't know how well it's gonna do long term and I wouldn't be surprised if it peaks lower but I want it to go top 3 so bad I'm just saying yes
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jazz
New Member
Joined: February 2022
Posts: 17
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Post by jazz on May 4, 2022 21:16:22 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes
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pokepikalem
New Member
Joined: December 2007
Posts: 351
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Post by pokepikalem on May 4, 2022 22:30:12 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. No
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,084
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Post by inverse on May 5, 2022 2:31:21 GMT -5
1. Yes given all its gotta do is beat That's What I Want 2. Yes (I could see it getting a big remix that pushes it to #3)
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annoymous1
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Joined: December 2017
Posts: 7,046
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Post by annoymous1 on May 5, 2022 8:00:05 GMT -5
Ooh Fun! 1. Yes ~ It'll depend how the songs sound like.I feel like First Class will definitely get the boost and the Drake song. As much as I would love for Nail Tech to go top 10 i don't think it'll happen. 2. No ~ I do think About Damn Time will go top 10 and peak in the top 5 ,but I don't see it going past 3. it'll be a great longevity hit.
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gikem
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Joined: October 2020
Posts: 3,813
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Post by gikem on May 5, 2022 8:12:10 GMT -5
1. Yes - Pretty much anytime Drake shows up on a highly-anticipated hip-hop release, you can all but guarantee the song he’s on will go top 10.
2. Yes (by a hair) - It’s really going to depend on how much activity we get in the top 3 over the next several weeks and whether those songs from the big upcoming album releases will stick around, if not that high. I’d also be concerned about the virality fading, but the song has already crossed over to several radio formats, which should be a help alongside the album release in July.
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enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 638
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Post by enwhy on May 5, 2022 8:27:02 GMT -5
Glad to see so many participating! Remember the deadline to predict/edit is midnight tonight.
So far, 15/18 (83%) of predictors think Jack Harlow will have multiple top tens next week. Remember, you get more points on a correct guess if the majority of people were wrong - as of now, if Jack doesn't get 2 top 10s next week, those that guessed against him would get a whopping 60 points! (might be worth thinking about if you're on the fence!)
And 8/18 (44%) of predictors think "About Damn Time" will go top 3. Very close! Seems like we're still not sure how well it will do.
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enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 638
Pronouns: he/him
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Post by enwhy on May 6, 2022 23:38:40 GMT -5
Last week's predictions
Question 1: Will Jack Harlow have multiple songs in the top 10 on the 5/21 chart? Responses: 15/18 (83%) say "Yes" {Full Info}Question 1: Jack Harlow Jack Harlow finds himself in a weird place right now in the music landscape. Is he the next superstar, or is he on a lucky run? What's a better reflection of his status right now - his lead single "Nail Tech", which barely made the top 20, and has since plummeted down to #71? Or his follow-up TikTok smash "First Class", which debuted at #1 last month with over 50M streams? This album will reveal a lot.
Which brings us to the question - Will Jack Harlow have multiple songs in the top 10 on the 5/21 chart?
YES (83% - 12 pts for a win): livelightning enwhy phieaglesfan712 Gen V.B. Music Fan imhappy259 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan wild jhit 85la kindofbiased jazz pokepikalem inverse annoymous1 gikem
NO (17% - 60 pts for a win): otaviohmg joshtheking Limited Edition
Question 2: Will Lizzo's "About Damn Time" reach the top 3 before the end of the summer (9/17 chart)? Responses: 8/18 (44%) say "Yes" {Full Info}Lizzo has been very quiet from a music standpoint since her 2019 dual-breakout hits, "Truth Hurts" and "Good as Hell". Last year, she released a collab with Cardi that debuted Top 5, but couldn't catch on any further. Her latest release "About Damn Time" has caught fire these past few days, blowing up on TikTok and streaming. Does this single have the momentum to keep going, solidifying Lizzo's position as a main pop girl? The long-term question for this week, Will Lizzo's "About Damn Time" reach the top 3 before the end of the summer (9/17 chart)?
YES (44% - 22.5 pts for a win):
otaviohmg
phieaglesfan712
Limited Edition
85la
kindofbiased
jazz
inverse
gikem
NO (56% - 18 pts for a win):
livelightning
enwhy
joshtheking
Gen V.B.
Music Fan
imhappy259
Baby Yoda Hot100Fan
wild jhit
pokepikalem
annoymous1 And finally, the new question for this week! This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, May 12)Question 1: Kendrick
Kendrick Lamar releases his long-awaited project "Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers" next Friday. He's been gone for 5 years, and there's no doubt that the interest in him has only grown. His last lead single, Humble, debuted at #2 and peaked at #1. He's coming off a very successful Grammy-winning collab with Baby Keemand a Superbowl performance. Everything seems stacked in his favor for a #1 debut. At the same time, there's rumors that this album will be more experimental, and will draw in rock influences - could a less chart-friendly sound hurt him on the Hot 100? We'll have to wait and see. So, Will Kendrick debut at #1 on the 5/28 chart? Question 2: Bieber Top 10 Record
We've finally started getting releases that are shaking up the top 10! But one thing has remained constant over the past year: Justin Bieber's presence in the top 10. He now has the 3rd longest top 10 streak in Hot 100 history, with only the Chainsmokers (61), and Katy Perry (69) ahead of him. With Stay and Ghost bleeding radio, it seems like his streak might be in jeopardy. But, he recently announced that his next album is almost done, and will be releasing soon - can he make it through July and beat Katy's streak? The long-term question for this week, Will Justin Bieber beat Katy's record by reaching 70 consecutive weeks in the Top 10 (7/30 chart)?
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✨ 𝑔𝓋 ✨
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
adamantly has less time here :(
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 10,716
My Charts
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Post by ✨ 𝑔𝓋 ✨ on May 7, 2022 0:12:17 GMT -5
1. Yes: The hype for new Kendrick single could be enough to guarantee a #1 debut because if "HUMBLE." managed to debut at #2 behind a really strong #1 in Ed Sheeran's "Shape of You", imagine behind a solid but not as strong as "Shape of You" #1? I would assume the #2 behind a possible Kendrick debut be Jack Harlow's "First Class" with the after effects from his album boost.
2. No: The huge single and album drops would eventually overwhelm Justin Bieber out of breaking Katy Perry's record. The Future album bomb already threatens both "STAY" and "Ghost" staying at Top 10. But then there's the double Bad Bunny/Jack Harlow album bomb, then Kendrick Lamar, then Post Malone's album, then Harry Styles' album, then BTS new single. It may have a chance on passing The Chainsmokers' record at 61 weeks, but there's no way he would pass Katy at 69 (nice) weeks, unless he goes to release the album by like between Harry's House release and BTS' new single release.
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goldrush
New Member
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Post by goldrush on May 7, 2022 0:13:38 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. No because of upcoming album bombs
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gikem
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Joined: October 2020
Posts: 3,813
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Post by gikem on May 7, 2022 6:35:09 GMT -5
1. Yes - Kendrick is a big enough artist that a weaker playing field should give him a major advantage, especially if he has a particular song from the album that he wants to push.
2. No - Way too much upheaval going on in the top 10 right now for this to happen. I think he will be roughly around the Chainsmokers’ number when the streak is broken, and I doubt Honest will get there in time either assuming it does so at all.
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Post by Limited Edition on May 7, 2022 8:29:24 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. No
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joshtheking
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Joined: April 2020
Posts: 1,365
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Post by joshtheking on May 7, 2022 8:50:41 GMT -5
1. Yes- I will be amazed if he does not lol. 2. No- I think the album bombs will disrupt it.
An idea: Maybe for future questions have more variable answers rather than just yes or no? Example: "Where will (blank) song peak? A. Top 3, B. Top 5, C. Top 10, D. Top 20" But if you wanna continue this way it's totally up to you!
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 7, 2022 12:08:00 GMT -5
1. Yes, Kendrick has a lot of pent up demand for his music. 2. No. Unless he releases a song that can fill in the gap after Stay (fingers crossed) finally exits the top 10 for good that can remain in the top 10 after that time. I do agree that album bombs could break the streak on their own or songs from those that manage to remain in the top 10 will help Stay to finally exit the top 10 on a given week along with songs reaching the top 10.
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kindofbiased
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Rough surf on the coast
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Post by kindofbiased on May 7, 2022 12:13:48 GMT -5
1. Yes, he's got so much hype going into this album it should be easy to make whatever song his team pushes debut at #1 2. No, Ghost is likely leaving the top 10 for good on the 5/14 chart and as crazy as Stay's run has been I can't see it holding on to the top 10 for two more months, especially with the multiple album bombs coming that are gonna take up a lot of space
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Post by livelightning on May 7, 2022 13:24:47 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. No - Stay is prolly gone next week with no Bieber song to replace it
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2022 15:15:18 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. No
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