enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 642
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by enwhy on Oct 6, 2022 15:36:41 GMT -5
1. probably not. i'd say the only song that has a chance is light switch and even that seems like somewhat of a long shot since idk how many people are scrambling to check out the new charlie puth album 2. assuming we're only counting songs that climbed to the top ten (as opposed to debuting in it), i'll go with 7 or less since there's just not a ton charting right now that i can see reaching it pre christmas, with vegas and im blue being the only songs that i would confidently put money on getting there. i'm sure we'll see a couple other songs make it as well (hopefully one of them isn't under the influence 🤮) but that still puts us as under 7. that said if we ARE counting debuts, then i think we could easily reach c 3. i think it rly boils down to how taylor's new album does. it's a tossup, but i'll say no, it won't make it, as it seems easy enough for a song or two to pass it in the next couple weeks and then have 6 or more t swizzle songs debut above it debuts will count...basically the only qualifier is it has to be the song's 1st ever week in the top 10. so debuts, slow climbs, holiday songs could all count.
|
|
|
Post by Limited Edition on Oct 6, 2022 15:56:14 GMT -5
Q1: No Q2: C Q3: No
|
|
M5AGTS
2x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2022
Posts: 2,927
|
Post by M5AGTS on Oct 6, 2022 15:56:50 GMT -5
1. probably not. i'd say the only song that has a chance is light switch and even that seems like somewhat of a long shot since idk how many people are scrambling to check out the new charlie puth album 2. assuming we're only counting songs that climbed to the top ten (as opposed to debuting in it), i'll go with 7 or less since there's just not a ton charting right now that i can see reaching it pre christmas, with vegas and im blue being the only songs that i would confidently put money on getting there. i'm sure we'll see a couple other songs make it as well (hopefully one of them isn't under the influence 🤮) but that still puts us as under 7. that said if we ARE counting debuts, then i think we could easily reach c 3. i think it rly boils down to how taylor's new album does. it's a tossup, but i'll say no, it won't make it, as it seems easy enough for a song or two to pass it in the next couple weeks and then have 6 or more t swizzle songs debut above it debuts will count...basically the only qualifier is it has to be the song's 1st ever week in the top 10. so debuts, slow climbs, holiday songs could all count. So that means that aiwfciy and ratct do not count since they've been in the top 10 before right?
|
|
enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 642
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by enwhy on Oct 6, 2022 16:07:53 GMT -5
debuts will count...basically the only qualifier is it has to be the song's 1st ever week in the top 10. so debuts, slow climbs, holiday songs could all count. So that means that aiwfciy and ratct do not count since they've been in the top 10 before right? exactly, it would have to be a holiday song that's never gone top 10 until this year. it would also have to happen by the 12/17 chart, since that's the end of fall.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2022 17:38:13 GMT -5
1. No 2. D 3. Yes
|
|
|
Post by Fears in the Fire on Oct 7, 2022 17:37:32 GMT -5
1. No 2. C 3. No
|
|
enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 642
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by enwhy on Oct 9, 2022 9:54:13 GMT -5
Here's this week's score update! Question 20B: Will Blackpink debut another single in the Top 40 on the 10/1 chart?
"Shut Down" debuted at #25, so this one resolved yes. Congrats to everyone except me (11/12, 92%), for calling this one! Each earns 11 points. Question 18A: What position will "Bad Habit" peak at by the 12/31 chart?Number one! Congrats to Steve Lacy and everyone who got this right. All except joshtheking predicted this would go #1 (11/12, 92%). Per the rules of this question, each will earn 50 points for guessing exactly correct! Looking ahead:- "Unholy" is looking very stable, and at the rate it's gaining airplay, has the potential to sit in the top 10 for months (50% predicted <5 weeks in the top 10)
- Beyonce's "CUFF IT" is the next single, and is a virtual lock for 10 weeks (70% predicted a 2nd Bey single would get 10 weeks)
- Morgan Wallen's "You Proof" continues to hover in the Top 10 (77% predicted no country music in the Top 3 this year)
- According to predictors, Paramore's comeback & Kid Cudi's new album appear unlikely to chart on the Hot 100 (67% and 92% predicted they'd chart, respectively)
Click here to see full selections & scoresjoshtheking's lead narrows! The top 3 is now within 27 points of each other. 85la, jasper0102 , and myself all jump a spot in the Top 5. Meanwhile 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 and big2000 both arrive in the top 15. Scoreboard1 (=) joshtheking 627 2 (▲1) 85la 614 3 (▲1) enwhy 600 4 (▼2) Limited Edition 567 5 (▲1) jasper0102 528 6 (▼1) phieaglesfan712 509 7 (=) Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 490 8 (=) imhappy259 480 9 (=) kindofbiased 336 10 (▲1) khan 292 11 (▲1) renfield75 251 12 (▼2) livelightning 245 13 (=) M5AGTS 244 14 (▲4) Gen V.B. 237 15 (▲1) big2000 212
|
|
enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 642
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by enwhy on Oct 9, 2022 9:54:29 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, October 13)Q1: Lil BabyLil Baby has been on a tear as of late. Everything he puts out charts, and he's currently got the largest active Hot 100 streak. Still, his most recent Top 10 came with a Nicki Minaj assist ("Do We Have A Problem?, #2). And you have to go back to 2020 for his last solo top 10 ("The Bigger Picture", #3). There's also the music landscape - 2022 has not been too friendly to rap on the charts. All that said, it's uncertain how big of a splash his new album will make. Will Lil Baby debut a song in the Top 10 next week? (10/29 chart)Q2: Unholy #1"Unholy" has shocked many of us by holding incredibly stable on its second week. What seemed like a random TikTok fad appears to be in the process of becoming a genuine smash hit. With Q4 known for its weak charts, can it hit the highest peak and give Sam Smith & Kim Petras their first ever #1s? Will "Unholy" reach #1 this year? (By 12/31 chart)Q3 (Optional): Thoughts on questionsI've really enjoyed hosting this game and seeing what you all think of the charts. I'd love to get your thoughts on the different kinds of questions I've been asking...what you like, what you don't like, what you'd like to see more of, etc. For reference, here are some of the types of questions I've asked: - Standard Yes/No (i.e. will this song hit Top 10)
- Multiple Choice (i.e. how many weeks will this song chart)
- Predict The Peaks (i.e. Where will this song peak)
- Genre Predictions (i.e. Will a country/rock/etc. song hit Top 5)
- Versus (i.e. Will Artist X vs Artist Y chart higher)
|
|
jasper0102
2x Platinum Member
I CAN GET BY THE DAYS JUST FINE BUT THE NIGHTS
Joined: May 2022
Posts: 2,746
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by jasper0102 on Oct 9, 2022 10:04:41 GMT -5
1. Yes, though it depends on the features. 2. Yes
|
|
M5AGTS
2x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2022
Posts: 2,927
|
Post by M5AGTS on Oct 9, 2022 10:22:41 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes 3. A few things here. A. I think Predict The Peaks is perfect for cooldown weeks where there's not a lot of exciting questions to be asked. B. I would love more questions about the Year End List. Especially since we're in the home stretch of the bb year. Those questions would be great for the ones that don't get resolved immediately. Just like Predict The Peaks, you don't ask any of the regular questions, and put down five songs and ask whether they will make the year end or not and at what position. Whoever gets the position closest wins. Or you could just do will it make it, and when it clinches or drops out falling short of the year end with no signs of return give the points. So those would be great activities for cooldown weeks where there's no good questions. Hope that makes sense. C. The verses questions will be great for double album bomb weeks. Like you could say which artist will debut the highest song. That will be fun.
|
|
khan
Platinum Member
Joined: July 2020
Posts: 1,044
|
Post by khan on Oct 9, 2022 14:09:29 GMT -5
1. Yes - The reminder that rap has been struggling this year made me almost reconsider this, but no. Lil Baby is one of the biggest musicians active right now, and this album specifically has been building up hype for months. Clearly, people are super interested in his albums, if My Turn's performance is anything to go by. Plus hey, the points needed to get into the top ten are super low right now. I don't think #1 is out of the question.
2. No - I think Unholy's best shot at #1 was on release week. The streaming is there, and it isn't going away, but I see two problems stopping it. I just have this doubt that radio on a song like that will grow quickly enough to keep up with the streaming lead, and more importantly, it's almost Christmas. Five or so of the weeks where Unholy might have taken the top spot will be taken up by Mariah Carey.
3. More versus challenges sound fun! And a way to stir the discourse super directly which can always yield some funny results. I will say the genre questions always seem like such a crapshoot though, it's like impossible to predict.
|
|
joshtheking
Platinum Member
Joined: April 2020
Posts: 1,436
|
Post by joshtheking on Oct 10, 2022 12:49:35 GMT -5
1. No 2. No 3. I think I like multiple choice the best as it gives more variable answers rather than only Yes and No
|
|
enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 642
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by enwhy on Oct 11, 2022 9:35:14 GMT -5
1. No - He'll have an album bomb with lots of charting songs, but nothing in the Top 10 imo.
2. Yes - It's gaining fast on radio. I think it'll sneak a week in at #1 during the fall dead period on the charts.
|
|
|
Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Oct 11, 2022 13:23:05 GMT -5
1. No 2. Yes 3. I think it is fine you are asking a variety of questions. The only question I have in particular is how the predict the peaks one is scored.
|
|
renfield75
Platinum Member
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 1,627
|
Post by renfield75 on Oct 11, 2022 14:28:19 GMT -5
1. No...I think he can have a ton of entries but don't know if any of them will singularly get enough points for top ten 2. No, I don't think it will grow enough on radio or streaming to overtake Steve Lacy, Taylor, or the Christmas tracks 3. I enjoy all the different types of questions! If it was the same kind of question every week that would get boring, you're doing a great job switching it up
|
|
enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 642
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by enwhy on Oct 11, 2022 15:46:39 GMT -5
I think it is fine you are asking a variety of questions. The only question I have in particular is how the predict the peaks one is scored. Initially I used the same formula as any other question, where you get a number of points equal to 10/(% of correct predictors). But this yields some wonky results for questions with too many possible options. 15 people can predict in the #10-20 range, but the one person who gets lucky with #14 would earn 150 points. That doesn't seem totally fair, since the point system is designed that way more to reward big underdog picks. Starting with the Predict The Peaks last month, I've started giving away 25 points for the closest pick, or 50 if you get it exactly. This feels much fairer IMO. More versus challenges sound fun! And a way to stir the discourse super directly which can always yield some funny results. I will say the genre questions always seem like such a crapshoot though, it's like impossible to predict. I agree with both of your points here, I realized last month with Nicki vs Cardi how much opportunity there was in these versus questions. We don't get double album bombs too often but I don't think we necessarily need those to do comparison questions (i.e. will Taylor's lead outsell Super Freak Girl?). The genre questions are a total crapshoot, which is kind of a shame because I think those have a lot of discourse potential as well. Trends in chart music (like how much will rap/country/pop succeed?) make for some interesting conversation, but just don't work as well over the timescale of a couple of months. I have something fun planned for 2023 that I think will be a much better format for those discussions though!
|
|
85la
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 3,742
|
Post by 85la on Oct 11, 2022 17:30:06 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes 3. I really like all the questions so far, and you seem to take a lot of time in planning them out and scoring everything! I agree with also possibly adding some Year-End ranking questions, although sparingly of course because much of that could just go in the year-end predictions thread. Also, in terms of asking whether songs will make the Hot 100, or Top 40, etc., maybe ask for narrower ranges, such as #1-10, #11-20, #20-30, etc. (but not specific positions so much), and people who guess within the correct ranges get the points.
Something I've also noticed is that, of course, those who wait longer to give their answers have some advantage, with the passage of time to see how things change, and basing it on every one else's answers, etc., so maybe you could arrange it to give more points to those who answer correctly the earliest? That might not be feasible though.
|
|
|
Post by Limited Edition on Oct 12, 2022 16:52:53 GMT -5
Q1: Yes Q2: No
|
|
enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 642
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by enwhy on Oct 16, 2022 9:45:14 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, October 20)
Q1: Swift Top 10 Debuts Taylor Swift's album - due next Friday - is undoubtedly the biggest music event of the fall. We've had a couple of questions already: 20% predicted one of her songs would top Nicki's 89k for this year's top sales week, while 67% of you think she will spend multiple weeks at #1, a feat she hasn't achieved in 5 years! Now, with her album week upon us, we don't have too much more information. We've seen the tracklist (featuring a Lana del Ray collab) and we know that she will kick off a stadium tour next year. Otherwise though - still a lot of questions! How many songs will Taylor Swift debut in the Top 10 next week? (11/5 chart)
Q2: Streaming Queen This year has been notoriously slow for streaming, especially new songs. Can Taylor change that? Her biggest song off her last album, "All Too Well", debuted with a whopping 54.4M streams back in 2021. Here's a list of 2022's biggest streaming weeks, excl. Christmas songs (credit to @chartessentials on twitter) 1. 54.6M | First Class - Jack Harlow 2. 42.4M | Jimmy Cooks - Drake ft. 21 Savage 3. 40.2M | Wait For U - Future ft. Drake & Tems 4. 37.6M | We Don't Talk About Bruno - Encanto Cast 5. 37.2M | N95 - Kendrick Lamar 6. 35.7M | As It Was - Harry Styles Will a Taylor track beat "First Class" (54.6M) for the biggest streaming week of the year next week? (11/5 chart)
Q3 Country Duel And here's something for those of you who are sick of hearing about Taylor Swift! Zach Bryan's "Something In The Orange" has been racing up the charts for a few weeks now. It looks destined for Top 10, with a good shot at Top 5. It's his first charting hit, and would represent a huge moment in his career. Meanwhile, the ever controversial Morgan Wallen has been floating around the Top 10 with "You Proof" for the last month or so. Here are their chart runs mapped out over the past 5 weeks (peaks are bolded): Something In The Orange: ...-32-25-21-23-16 You Proof: ...-10-6-6-8-7 Which song will peak higher by the end of this year: Something In the Orange, You Proof, or will they tie? (By 12/31 chart)
|
|
jasper0102
2x Platinum Member
I CAN GET BY THE DAYS JUST FINE BUT THE NIGHTS
Joined: May 2022
Posts: 2,746
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by jasper0102 on Oct 16, 2022 9:51:19 GMT -5
1. 4 2. No, albeit barely. 3. You Proof-as much as I love SITO, it probably won't have the radio support to beat You Proof's potential peak, and that's not counting the inevitable pop radio push waiting in the wings.
|
|
joshtheking
Platinum Member
Joined: April 2020
Posts: 1,436
|
Post by joshtheking on Oct 16, 2022 10:17:15 GMT -5
1. 4 2. Yes 3. You Proof, though I think SITO will have more overall longevity
|
|
mms82
Platinum Member
...
Joined: January 2019
Posts: 1,248
|
Post by mms82 on Oct 16, 2022 10:49:05 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, October 20)Q1: Swift Top 10 DebutsTaylor Swift's album - due next Friday - is undoubtedly the biggest music event of the fall. We've had a couple of questions already: 20% predicted one of her songs would top Nicki's 89k for this year's top sales week, while 67% of you think she will spend multiple weeks at #1, a feat she hasn't achieved in 5 years! Now, with her album week upon us, we don't have too much more information. We've seen the tracklist (featuring a Lana del Ray collab) and we know that she will kick off a stadium tour next year. Otherwise though - still a lot of questions! How many songs will Taylor Swift debut in the Top 10 next week? (11/5 chart)Q2: Streaming QueenThis year has been notoriously slow for streaming, especially new songs. Can Taylor change that? Her biggest song off her last album, "All Too Well", debuted with a whopping 54.4M streams back in 2021. Here's a list of 2022's biggest streaming weeks, excl. Christmas songs (credit to @chartessentials on twitter) 1. 54.6M | First Class - Jack Harlow 2. 42.4M | Jimmy Cooks - Drake ft. 21 Savage 3. 40.2M | Wait For U - Future ft. Drake & Tems 4. 37.6M | We Don't Talk About Bruno - Encanto Cast 5. 37.2M | N95 - Kendrick Lamar 6. 35.7M | As It Was - Harry Styles Will a Taylor track beat "First Class" (54.6M) for the biggest streaming week of the year next week? (11/5 chart)Q3 Country DuelAnd here's something for those of you who are sick of hearing about Taylor Swift! Zach Bryan's "Something In The Orange" has been racing up the charts for a few weeks now. It looks destined for Top 10, with a good shot at Top 5. It's his first charting hit, and would represent a huge moment in his career. Meanwhile, the ever controversial Morgan Wallen has been floating around the Top 10 with "You Proof" for the last month or so. Here are their chart runs mapped out over the past 5 weeks (peaks are bolded): Something In The Orange: ...-32-25-21-23- 16You Proof: ...-10- 6-6-8-7 Which song will peak higher by the end of this year: Something In the Orange, You Proof, or will they tie? (By 12/31 chart) 6 Yes You Proof
|
|
mms82
Platinum Member
...
Joined: January 2019
Posts: 1,248
|
Post by mms82 on Oct 16, 2022 10:50:27 GMT -5
I do see something in the orange becoming a Tennessee Whiskey / Whiskey Glasses style hit that lingers on top streamed songs for 5/10 years and I don’t see You Proof doing that, but with radio You Proof is going to peak higher
|
|
khan
Platinum Member
Joined: July 2020
Posts: 1,044
|
Post by khan on Oct 16, 2022 11:26:04 GMT -5
1. 5 - The fact that this is a new album full of original music is really pulling a lot of weight here. The last two Taylor's Versions pulled some great numbers as albums but not really any huge single hits. The one exception to this, ATW10MVTVFTV, was basically a new song anyway. People are clamoring for some new material and I think the weak charts will make it manifest here.
2. No - Despite the reasons laid out above, Taylor is still more of an albums artist these days. Her album will probably have the biggest week of the year, but I'm not sure if any single song will have the power to beat First Class, especially since she hasn't had any teaser go viral on TikTok or anything like that.
3. You Proof - This one hurts, but Christmas feels like it's gonna screw Something in the Orange here. The streaming is there, but the radio gains are so slowwwww. A this rate, it'll only gain enough to beat You Proof over the winter months, which are the worst months to be a hit song. And then after Christmas, even if the radio is there, there's no guarantee the streaming is there considering it's months out from now. Fingers crossed I'm wrong though.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2022 11:46:30 GMT -5
1. 5 2. No 3. You Proof
|
|
M5AGTS
2x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2022
Posts: 2,927
|
Post by M5AGTS on Oct 16, 2022 12:25:08 GMT -5
1. 5 2. Yes 3. Yp
|
|
85la
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 3,742
|
Post by 85la on Oct 19, 2022 11:17:09 GMT -5
1. 5 2. No 3. You Proof. It's already reached #5 as of this week, so that will be pretty hard for SITO to beat.
|
|
renfield75
Platinum Member
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 1,627
|
Post by renfield75 on Oct 19, 2022 11:22:26 GMT -5
1. 5 2. No 3. You Proof, but I'd be happy to be wrong about that
|
|
fengyu
New Member
Joined: August 2020
Posts: 290
|
Post by fengyu on Oct 19, 2022 22:01:07 GMT -5
haven't been on pulse for a while but just wanted to shout out enwhy for running something that looks so fun!
|
|
|
Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Oct 19, 2022 22:08:26 GMT -5
1. 4 2. No 3. You Proof
|
|