renfield75
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Post by renfield75 on Sept 18, 2022 18:21:51 GMT -5
1. No 2. No...I think she has more streaming now to offset those sales 3. No...unless Olivia releases a new single I don't think any unproven young new artists will be able to do it before the Christmas takeover (unless we count Brenda Lee as a teenager lol)
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85la
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Post by 85la on Sept 19, 2022 18:59:27 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. No 3. Yes
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Sept 19, 2022 22:20:28 GMT -5
1. No 2. Yes 3. No
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Sept 20, 2022 19:36:55 GMT -5
Last week's might be close ^
1. No - they're probably never going to chart again imo
2. No - probably more like 40-50k unless it's a close race
3. No - I doubt there will be much in the way of breakout artists over the next few months
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Post by Limited Edition on Sept 21, 2022 11:07:35 GMT -5
Q1: No Q2: No Q3: No
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Sept 25, 2022 10:45:14 GMT -5
Here's this week's score update! Question 19A: Will John Legend debut a song on the Hot 100 on 9/24?John Legend did not wind up with any debuts. He has a feature on a DJ Khaled song, but it debuted several weeks ago. Congrats to all 14 predictors for unanimously guessing correctly. Each will earn 10 points. Question 19C: Will a song which samples/interpolates a previous hit spend at least 1 week in the Top 3 through the end of the year? (9/24 - 12/31 charts)This one resolved fast. "Super Freaky Girl" resurged to the Top 3 off the power of the Queens Remix. Congrats to 85la Baby Yoda Hot100Fan big2000 enwhy kindofbiased M5AGTS renfield75 @lil14 (8/14, 57%) for guessing correctly. Each earn a total of 18 points! Question 10A: What will Glimpse Of Us's peak be by the end of summer?Glimpse Of Us never managed to bounce back from its original #8 streaming peak early this summer. Radio was slow to pick it up, and streaming died down quickly. Props to big2000 enwhy jasper0102 joshtheking korbel16 phieaglesfan712 (6/9, 67%) for guessing the exact peak! Each earn 15 points. Overall, 3 other predictors guessed it would peak a little higher. Question 10E: What will Vegas's peak be by the end of summer?This one was trickier! A slightly later cutoff might've allowed this one to go Top 10. But like most Doja songs, this one was a slow riser. The final week of summer, "Vegas" peaked at #20. One person called this exactly: Congrats jasper0102 on the perfect prediction - you win the 90 point jackpot here! Overall, we were split on this song: of the incorrect guesses, 4 guessed it would peak Top 10, and 4 guessed it would peak at #28 or worse. Question 5B: Which song off the new Post Malone album will have the highest peak by the end of the summer (9/17 chart)?This one actually tied!! In the final week of the summer, "I Like You" matched "One Right Now" with a #6 peak! Everyone will earn 10 points, as the guesses were split between ORN and ILY. Still props to the 4 of us that called ILY's success before the song even came out: Baby Yoda Hot100Fan enwhy 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 @imhappy259 . For those curious, the split was ORN 9 vs ILY 4. Looking ahead:- AIW looks likely to secure a 15th week at #1 on the 10/1 chart, however Bad Habit and Unholy are threatening (86% predicted it wouldn't get more than 15 weeks)
- Beyonce's "CUFF IT" is is resurging on the charts, and looks likely to get it's 6th week (70% predicted a 2nd Bey single would get 10 weeks)
- The rise of "Unholy" means "Bad Habit" now has a chance of getting blocked from #1 (92% predicted it would have a #1 peak)
- Blackpink looks likely to secure a high debut this week (92% said they would debut Top 40)
- Morgan Wallen's "You Proof" looks almost sure to hit the Top 3 this fall. It would be the highest-peaking country song of the year (77% predicted no country music in the Top 3 this year)
Click here to see full selections & scoresjasper0102 and kindofbiased each climb a couple of spots. Otherwise, the Top 5 holds steady as we enter the final months of 2022! Scoreboard1 (=) joshtheking 596 2 (=) Limited Edition 536 3 (=) 85la 533 4 (=) enwhy 530 5 (=) phieaglesfan712 459 6 (▲2) hellojasper0102 447 7 (=) Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 409 8 (▼2) imhappy259 399 9 (▲2) kindofbiased 265 10 (▼1) livelightning 245 11 (▼1) khan 242 12 (▲1) renfield75 220 13 (▲1) M5AGTS 213 14 (▼2) act ii: OTAVIO 183 15 (=) Fears in the Fire 172
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Sept 25, 2022 10:45:33 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, September 29)Q1: Paramore!Paramore recently announced their first new song in 5 years! They will be dropping "This is Why" on Wed 9/28. They were on a run from 2007-2014 with 6 Top 40 hits, beginning with "Misery Business" (#26) and ending with "Ain't It Fun" (#10). Their last album in 2017 only netted one charting song, "Hard Times" (#90). With the pop punk revival of the last couple of years, could Paramore return to the charts in the 2020s? Will Paramore chart on the Hot 100 with any song through the end of the year? (By 12/31 chart)Q2: Kid CudiKid Cudi's new project "Entergalactic" is scheduled to be released this Friday. While his chart history is sparse over the past 10 years, he remains an influential and interesting figure in hip hop. Interestingly, this album will be a companion to a Netflix adult animated TV special, also called "Entergalactic". It's tough to gauge the commercial viability of this album, but hey, "Enemy" was similarly made for an animated series, and look how well that did! Will any songs off Kid Cudi's "Entergalactic" debut on the Hot 100 next week? (10/15 chart)Q3: UnholyWhat a crazy surprise to see Sam Smith and Kim Petras as sudden Top 10 threats! Their new single "Unholy" has been topping Spotify (and briefly Apple Music!) for a few days, thanks to some timely TikTok virality. While it's too late to talk debut numbers, I'm very curious as to what kind of run people expect this to have. Will the streaming hold up? Will radio take to it? We'll have to see! How many weeks in the Top 10 will "Unholy" achieve this year? (10/8-12/31 chart; 13 weeks) A - 0-1 Weeks B - 2-4 Weeks C - 5-9 Weeks D - 10-13 Weeks
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Sept 25, 2022 10:54:19 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes
3. C 3. B
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Sept 25, 2022 11:52:10 GMT -5
I'm torn- I don't want Bad Habit to hit #1 so I can be the sole winner for that question lmao
but otherwise I REALLY want Bad Habit to go #1
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Sept 25, 2022 11:57:40 GMT -5
Yay!!! I went up a spot!!!
Anyway 1. Yes 2. Yes 3. D
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Sept 25, 2022 12:03:08 GMT -5
1. No- I think they'll make bubbling under maybe 2. Yes- If he has any big collabs then I don't see why he wouldn't 3. B- I think this could maybe stick around but I'm not sure in the top 10 especially with no radio support at the moment
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renfield75
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Post by renfield75 on Sept 25, 2022 12:17:56 GMT -5
1. No - The Wednesday release will split the first week, which is likely the best shot they had 2. Yes 3. A - it might debut in the top ten, drop, then stabilize for a while (although I don't see it getting much radio support). I don't love this song but I'd be happy to be wrong and see Sam and especially Kim Petras get a big hit
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on Sept 25, 2022 12:33:10 GMT -5
1. Yes - idk why they're releasing on a Wednesdayyyyy ughhhh but I feel like there's been a LOT of hype for new Paramore music lately, moreso than in 2017 so I definitely see them charting 2. Yes 3. I'm torn but tentatively I'm gonna go C
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Sept 25, 2022 16:40:29 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes 3. B
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2022 17:51:25 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes 3. C
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mms82
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...
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Post by mms82 on Sept 26, 2022 12:22:02 GMT -5
1 yes 2 yes 3 a
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Post by Limited Edition on Sept 29, 2022 8:55:23 GMT -5
Q1: Yes Q2: Yes Q3: D
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85la
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Post by 85la on Sept 29, 2022 9:19:03 GMT -5
1. No 2. Yes 3. D - 10-13 weeks. With how big of an immediate splash it's made - still #1 on Spotify and top 5 on AM, and already gaining some minor radio traction, it would be hard for it to go away quickly.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Sept 29, 2022 10:00:41 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes 3. B
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Sept 29, 2022 10:42:16 GMT -5
1. No - Their new single shows them going in more of an indie pop direction, and I don't think it will resonate with people. 2. No - I could see this being a pretty low-promo project. Seems like the album is more soundtrack than true album. 3. C: 5-9 Weeks - The last few days of Spotify has convinced me that this will hang around for more than a week. Still, it burned out on me in about a day, so I'm skeptical it will last through the holidays.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Oct 2, 2022 9:52:11 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, October 6)Q1: It's Charlie (Puth) BabyCharlie Puth's self-titled 3rd album - his first since 2018's Voicenotes - drops this Friday. He took a unique approach this album of crafting many songs with the help of his TikTok followers. This has had mixed results, with some accusing him of watering down his music to short made-for-TikTok choruses. And yet, he's seeing success he hasn't seen in years. Since 2017, when "Attention" (#5) and "How Long" (#20) saw major success, he hasn't scratched the Top 40 with any of a number of singles. That changed this year with "Light Switch" (#27) and "Left and Right" (#22). Does he have any more hits in him? Will 2+ songs off Charlie chart on the Hot 100 in the album release week? (10/22 chart)* *"Left and Right," which is charting currently, would count toward thisQ2: Autumn Chart TurnoverThe charts have moved at a snail's pace this year. From "As It Was" spending 15+ weeks at #1, to "Heat Waves" permanent spot in the Top 20, we have not seen too much action in 2022. Will the trend continue in the fall? 2022 Fall - 1 (through 10/1) 2021 Fall - 12 new Top 10s 2020 Fall - 13 new Top 10s 2019 Fall - 14 new Top 10s 2018 Fall - 17 new Top 10sHow many songs will enter the Top 10 for the first time this fall? (9/24-12/17 charts; 13 weeks) A: 7 or fewer songs B: 8-10 songs C: 11-13 songs D: 14+ songsQ3: 95 WeeksHeat Waves is on a historic run right now. While we're all sick of it, we can still take a step back and admire just how insane it is that Glass Animals's first and only charting hit is about to break the all-time longevity record. October 22nd is the week it will likely hit 91 weeks, breaking "Blinding Light's" short-lived record. How many more weeks can it rack up before holiday songs and declining streams cause it to slip into recurrency? 100 is impossible due to the holidays, but is 95 weeks possible? For reference, the past 10 weeks: 10-12-14-13-17-19-18-18-17-17 Will "Heat Waves" reach 95 weeks on the chart? (Likely by 11/19 chart)
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Oct 2, 2022 10:16:15 GMT -5
1. No 2. B 3. No
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Oct 2, 2022 11:23:18 GMT -5
1. Unfortunately no. 2. C. 3. No. At least it will probably still break the record. But I see it stopping at 91 because I think it's gonna be kicked out by Lil Baby, which would be it's 92nd week.
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renfield75
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Post by renfield75 on Oct 2, 2022 13:40:42 GMT -5
1. No 2. C...Taylor's album bomb could push those numbers up 3. No
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 2, 2022 16:09:00 GMT -5
1. No (should give a possible boost for "Left and Right" though) 2. C 3. No (Lil Baby and Taylor Swift album bomb should help on getting this recurrent, but yeah it's dethroning "Blinding Lights" record by a week or two which sucks)
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Oct 3, 2022 10:59:49 GMT -5
1. No 2. C 3. No
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85la
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Post by 85la on Oct 5, 2022 18:22:40 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. B 3. No. I'm guessing (or rather hoping) that album bombs and/or other debuts will push it into recurrency.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Oct 5, 2022 20:45:54 GMT -5
1. Yes. 2. C 3. No. I actually think the week that Lil Baby's album and Bailey Zimmerman EP are released, that will probably be enough to finally make it go recurrent. In the worst case, I don't think it would manage to survive the week Midnights is released.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Oct 6, 2022 8:35:11 GMT -5
1. No - With 6 singles so far, I think he's pretty much played all his cards at this point. I don't see anything new charting. 2. D: 14+ - We're up to 3 already (The Kinda Love, Unholy, Tomorrow 2). I see 3-5 songs on the chart that I think will eventually go top 10. Beyond that, probably 2-3 songs for Taylor, 1 for Lil Baby. Add on another 4 or so for new releases...I could actually see us getting a lot of new Top 10s. We have one of the weakest Top 10s ever, and radio is trying to find new stuff to replace the void left by this summer's hits. 3. Yes - I think Taylor will just barely knock Heat Waves into recurrency. It's got a 20% or so buffer over #26 right now, but even a smaller album bomb could kill it at this point.
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rainie
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Post by rainie on Oct 6, 2022 11:44:51 GMT -5
1. probably not. i'd say the only song that has a chance is light switch and even that seems like somewhat of a long shot since idk how many people are scrambling to check out the new charlie puth album 2. assuming we're only counting songs that climbed to the top ten (as opposed to debuting in it), i'll go with 7 or less since there's just not a ton charting right now that i can see reaching it pre christmas, with vegas and im blue being the only songs that i would confidently put money on getting there. i'm sure we'll see a couple other songs make it as well (hopefully one of them isn't under the influence 🤮) but that still puts us as under 7. that said if we ARE counting debuts, then i think we could easily reach c 3. i think it rly boils down to how taylor's new album does. it's a tossup, but i'll say no, it won't make it, as it seems easy enough for a song or two to pass it in the next couple weeks and then have 6 or more t swizzle songs debut above it
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