khan
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Post by khan on Jun 20, 2022 20:36:08 GMT -5
1. #8 - Gonna go for a low number for a Drake song here, this album's drop-off is historic. I know it might bet better on AM than on Spotify, but clearly this thing did not click with his fans or general audiences. It'll get its multiple top tens because Drake, at least. Still, these midweek numbers are terrible for his status, and this summer has a bunch of super strong songs that it'll have to fight against.
2. 3 - Sticky, Massive, and Jimmy Cooks are the only songs off the new project that I see any positive reception for, or really any reception at all other than calling Falling Back bad. So I think those three will hold on better.
3. No - Heather was a big moment, but if it was going to lead anywhere, it already would have. He's had tons of singles before then and since then, and none of them were able to catch on. Sadly, I think his moment has passed. But among all the people who could get a second random hit off of TikTok, I'd definitely call him one of the most likely.
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Post by Limited Edition on Jun 22, 2022 14:43:03 GMT -5
Q1: #7
Q2: 2
Q3: Yes
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✨ 𝑔𝓋 ✨
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Post by ✨ 𝑔𝓋 ✨ on Jun 22, 2022 18:35:27 GMT -5
Q1: #8 Q2: 3 songs Q3: Yes
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jun 22, 2022 22:13:13 GMT -5
1. #7 2. 4 3. Yes
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jun 26, 2022 11:58:35 GMT -5
We have another score update! Question 6A: Will BTS debut at #1 on the 6/25 chart? As we know, BTS failed to debut at #1. In fact, their top song "Yet To Come" charted at #13. Only 30% of predictors guessed this correctly! joshtheking khan phieaglesfan712 (30%, 3 of 10) each correctly predicted this, and each earn the big sum of 33 points for winning with the underdog pick. Great job! Looking ahead: - "About Damn Time" is STILL in the top 5, and is starting to pick up momentum (44% predicted ADT would reach the Top 3)
- Post and Doja's "I Like You" continues to pick up steam on radio as it hovers in the top 20 (31% predicted ILY would reach the Top 5)
- Jimmy Cooks & WAIT FOR U both appear to be threats for #1 over the next few weeks (25% predicted rap songs would spend 5+ weeks at #1 this summer)
Click here to see full selections & scoresFinally - we have a new frontrunner! joshtheking takes over as our #1 predictor. Still a lot of time and a lot of predictions to go though ;) Scoreboard1 (▲1) joshtheking 173 2 (▼1) enwhy 161 3 (▼1) Limited Edition 140 4 (=) Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 116 4 (=) imhappy259 116 6 (▲3) phieaglesfan712 113 7 (▼1) 85la 106 8 (▼1) annoymous1 105 9 (▼1) otaviohmg 90 10 (▲6) khan 79 11 (▼1) kindofbiased 76 11 (▼1) livelightning 76 13 (▼1) pokepikalem 75 14 (▼1) Rose Knows Nylund 65 15 (▼1) gikem 60
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jun 26, 2022 11:58:47 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, July 1)Question 1: Running Up That ChartRunning Up That Hill has been the biggest chart story of the year so far, and it's not hard to see why. Kate Bush's 1985 critically-acclaimed art pop song has shot up the charts after its prominent use in Stranger Things season 4. So far, it's re-peaked at #4. Next Friday, Netflix releases the second half of the new Stranger Things season - which has been confirmed to feature Running Up That Hill again. This, along with some radio momentum and Spotify playlisting, has us all asking the question: Will Kate Bush's "Running Up That Hill" be next week's #1 song? (7/16 chart)Question 2: Blinded by the Heat WavesChart longevity has drastically changed in the past couple decades. In 1998, "How Do I Live" hit 69 weeks and became the longest-charting song ever. Then, the record was broken several times as streaming took over the landscape. First, "I'm Yours" charted for 76 weeks in 2009. Then "Sail" hit 79 weeks in 2014. "Radioactive" quickly eclipsed this with 87 weeks in 2014. Finally, "Blinding Lights" hit an unthinkable 90 weeks on the Hot 100 last year. And now, we have a new threat - "Heat Waves" is up to 74 weeks, and remains strong in the top 10. Can Glass Animal's "Heat Waves" beat the all-time longevity record by charting for 91 total weeks? (By 12/31; Likely to happen on 10/22)Question 3: 2021 BreakoutsEach year, Billboard publishes the Top New Artist chart, which names 5 big new artists based on a combination of chart performance and touring revenue. Here are the names from the past 2 years: 2020: Roddy Rich - Pop Smoke - Lewis Capaldi - Rod Wave - Doja Cat 2021: Olivia Rodrigo - The Kid LAROI - Giveon - Pooh Shiesty - 24kGoldnWhich year's Top New Artists (2020 vs 2021) will spend more total weeks in the Top 10 through the end of this year? (7/16-12/31 charts)* *If an artist has 2 songs in the top 10 on a given week, this will count as 2 weeks.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jun 26, 2022 12:20:52 GMT -5
1. Yes
2. Yes
3. 2020 (because of Doja)
Also, the 60k group should have gotten a win for Question 6b. (I should have stuck to my guts and picked 50k, and I would have gotten the whole enchilada. Oh well, at least I’ll be getting another 33 points for that one.)
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jun 26, 2022 13:22:39 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes 3. 2020 (because of Doja) Also, the 60k group should have gotten a win for Question 6b. (I should have stuck to my guts and picked 50k, and I would have gotten the whole enchilada. Oh well, at least I’ll be getting another 33 points for that one.) Source on the 60k number? I haven't seen it reported yet.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jun 26, 2022 14:07:48 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes 3. 2020 (because of Doja) Also, the 60k group should have gotten a win for Question 6b. (I should have stuck to my guts and picked 50k, and I would have gotten the whole enchilada. Oh well, at least I’ll be getting another 33 points for that one.) Source on the 60k number? I haven't seen it reported yet. I don’t have the exact number, but all I know is that it was under 40k, based on its #13 position on the Hot 100.
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Post by livelightning on Jun 26, 2022 14:09:38 GMT -5
1. No 2. Yes 3. 2020
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otaviohmg
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Caught up in my head, hopin' you gon' say Was it worth it? Put that work in Got me nothin'
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Post by otaviohmg on Jun 27, 2022 19:16:30 GMT -5
1 Yes 2 Yes 3 2020
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✨ 𝑔𝓋 ✨
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adamantly has less time here :(
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Post by ✨ 𝑔𝓋 ✨ on Jun 28, 2022 2:45:16 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes (unfortunately) 3. 2020
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Jun 28, 2022 6:16:13 GMT -5
1. No- I think this is gonna be another "WDTAB being performed at the oscars" situation where we all think it'll give the song a huge boost but it really won't make THAT much of an impact. I think it'll definitely experience some gains but not enough to go to #1 2. Yes- I'm banking on it drop out in the 91-100 weeks range, which will still be enough to beat Blinding Lights. 3. 2020- Would've liked to go against the majority and say 2021 but I think 2020 makes the most sense as I see Vegas becoming a summer smash, and we don't know if Olivia is gonna drop this year
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2022 13:42:27 GMT -5
1. No 2. Yes 3. 2020
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Post by Fears in the Fire on Jun 29, 2022 9:08:43 GMT -5
1. No 2. Yes 3. 2021
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on Jun 29, 2022 9:39:26 GMT -5
1. No but I can see it going top 3 2. Yes 3. Barring something like an Olivia Rodrigo album we don't know about yet, 2020 almost solely bc of Doja
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jun 29, 2022 14:59:23 GMT -5
1. No 2. Yes 3. 2021 because Kid Laroi has 21 just based off of Stay
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jun 29, 2022 15:33:22 GMT -5
1. No 2. Yes 3. 2020. Agree that Doja would be the major factor.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Jun 29, 2022 18:08:08 GMT -5
Wait just checking, does question 3 mean from now to the end of the year or from the start of this year to the end?
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Post by Limited Edition on Jun 29, 2022 18:41:22 GMT -5
Q1: No Q2: Yes Q3: 2020
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jun 30, 2022 1:51:53 GMT -5
Wait just checking, does question 3 mean from now to the end of the year or from the start of this year to the end? Question is about now through the end of the year! (although it may be pretty close from Jan 1 - Now actually, if you consider Stay's top 10 run)
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jun 30, 2022 10:30:06 GMT -5
1. No - Unfortunately I think RUTH's streams have fallen too far. It's flying up the airplay chart, but the 20M weekly streams it's getting isn't going to cut it, especially with As It Was still dominating on radio. I'm guessing it needs ~30M streams (50% boost) to get #1, and I'm not sure how likely that is. That being said, I'd LOVE to be wrong - and I think it has a chance!
2. No - Going against the majority here...it will be closer than most think. It's been dropping pretty steadily lately, and I think in a few months it will be barely clinging to the Top 25. This one probably depends on whether we get a timely album bomb or not.
3. 2020 - I would be on the 2021 side because I think Kid LAROI will be dropping some new music, but it's gotta be 2020. Doja is just on an insane streak right now. Vegas just hit top 10 on Spotify, and her last hit (GIIY) is still working its way up on radio. Insane.
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85la
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Post by 85la on Jun 30, 2022 11:36:04 GMT -5
1. No 2. No 3. 2021. This is a really tough one, because no artist from either year seems like a definite, but I am going to go with 2021 because of the possibility of Olivia releasing her follow-up and/or the Kid Laroi scoring another hit. Doja is very hot now, but she is running out of steam and on the verge of getting very over-saturated.
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renfield75
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Post by renfield75 on Jun 30, 2022 15:50:52 GMT -5
1. No (I hope I'm wrong, because I would love to see it happen!) 2. No 3. 2020
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jul 2, 2022 12:01:53 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, July 7) Since next week looks like another slow chart week, we're going to play a game of Predict the Peaks! Below are 5 songs, and your job is to guess where each one will peak by the end of the summer. If you think a song has already peaked, you can guess its existing peak and get credit. The closest predictor(s) for each song will earn the points. Good luck!
1: About Damn Time (#4 Peak so far - 10 Weeks) Lizzo's new single looked doomed at the start - until a TikTok trend revived it and sent it way up the charts. Now, it looks primed for a big week. Huge radio, steady streaming, and an album on the way - how high can it go? What will About Damn Time's peak be by the end of summer? (By 9/17 chart)
2: Glimpse of Us (#8 Peak so far - 2 Weeks) Joji's breakout ballad flew up the streaming charts a couple of weeks ago, and now sits in the Top 10. The question is, does it have any more room to grow? Will it have the longevity to hold on while radio picks it up? What will Glimpse of Us's peak be by the end of summer? (By 9/17 chart)
3: Break My Soul (#15 Peak so far - 1 Week) Beyonce's comeback single will likely break into the Top 10 in its first full week. It's an open question what happens next though - the streaming numbers are still dropping, signaling it may be passed its peak. Still, with airplay rising, and the video & album on the way, it may have higher to climb. (Remember, you can edit your guess through Thu 7/7, in case you want to see how it performs on this week's chart). What will Break My Soul's peak be by the end of summer? (By 9/17 chart)
4: Get Into It (Yuh) (#31 Peak so far - 29 Weeks) Doja is yet again seeing huge radio success with a Planet Her single. Still, the streaming on the song peaked months ago. How much higher will this one go? What will Get Into It's peak be by the end of summer? (By 9/17 chart)
5: Vegas (#56 Peak so far - 3 Weeks) Another Doja song, this one from the Elvis soundtrack. It's been blowing up on streaming these past couple weeks, and is now sitting comfortably in the Spotify top 10. Will this song have any legs? Will radio pick this one up, or is the Doja-mania dying down? What will Vegas's peak be by the end of summer? (By 9/17 chart)
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jul 2, 2022 12:13:51 GMT -5
1. 7 weeks at #1
2. #8 3. #7 4. #22 5. #28
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korbel16
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Post by korbel16 on Jul 2, 2022 14:33:16 GMT -5
1. #1 for 2-4 weeks once new album releases July 15th 2. peaked 3. #5 once B7 is out 4. #20 5. Top 40 probably
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jul 2, 2022 16:10:46 GMT -5
1. #1 - 1 week 2. #8 - Already peaked 3. #7 - Don't think it repeaks after this week 4. #16 - It will hit #1 on pop but the streaming won't be enough. 5. #8 - Idk I really like Vegas I think it'll have a great run
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Post by big2000 on Jul 2, 2022 17:19:21 GMT -5
1. #1 - It will likely reach the summit once Special releases and everyone is streaming it. 2. #8 - I don’t think this will go any higher. 3. #6 - The hype will probably die down for this one quickly. 4. #18 - Radio will keep it around for a while but streaming will still be dropping. 5. #10 - Streaming is very solid so far. It all depends on if radio catches on.
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Jul 3, 2022 8:15:13 GMT -5
1 #1 - Album release 2 #8 - I think this has already peaked, might go higher if the radio gets onboard. 3 #1 - Whenever Beyonce decides to release the video or when Renaissance drops 4 #18 - Similiar radio peak to Woman, just with more competition and lower streaming. 5 Top 20
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