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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jul 3, 2022 8:31:07 GMT -5
1. #1 - It will likely reach the summit once Special releases and everyone is streaming it. I hope you're right about this. I was told in the Hot 100 threads that barely anyone was streaming ADT.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jul 3, 2022 10:26:39 GMT -5
fyi I'm counting answers like "top 10" as #10
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Jul 3, 2022 10:48:35 GMT -5
1. #3- Feel like this is gonna be another Kiss Me More situation where the album release actually doesn't make much impact for the #1 2. #8- I said this in the Hot 100 thread but, I feel like this is gonna be a Good Days situation 3. #2- This all really depends on how well the video does. It's either gonna be a smash or a flop lmao 4. #23- I think the radio is starting to slow down :( 5. #6- I hope I'm right about this!
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Jul 4, 2022 7:30:30 GMT -5
1. #1 album bomb 2. #6 3. #5 4. #18 5. #35 Y'all are overselling tf out of this one.
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85la
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Post by 85la on Jul 4, 2022 11:37:54 GMT -5
1. #3 2. #5 3. #3 4. #20 5. #30
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Jul 4, 2022 13:43:02 GMT -5
1 - Whenβs the album coming again? Depending on competition itβs an easy 2 peak
2 - Glimpse of Us is gonna need hella airplay or a BIG stream boost to break the upper top 10. Def like 7
3 - The video is gonna need to be a masterpiece and airplay is gonna need to carry it seems. Number 6 peak the week of the album.
4 - This song is very old at this point for a lot of people. Again radio will need to do HEAVY lifting. Should be a steady mid teens like 14.
5 - This has breakout potential. Itβs new AND radio is growing as is streaming. Maybe like 8.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jul 10, 2022 22:03:50 GMT -5
First, some housekeeping - it's time for another score update! This is a BIG one, and the leaderboard will look VERY different after. Question 1B: Will Lizzo's "About Damn Time" reach the top 3 before the end of the summer (9/17 chart)? It took a couple months, but Lizzo finally hit the Top 3 as of this week's chart! 85la gikem inverse jazz kindofbiased Limited Edition otaviohmg phieaglesfan712 (44%, 8 of 18) each correctly predicted this, and each earn 23 points for winning with the underdog pick. Congrats! Question 6B: How many sales (to the nearest 10k) will BTS's top-selling song achieve next week (6/25 chart)? Thanks to phieagles for pointing out, there is no way BTS sold more than 60k based on their low debut here. So the 60k group (the lowest guesses) win out. joshtheking kindofbiased phieaglesfan712 (30%, 3 of 10) tied for the closest guess at 60k, and will each earn the big sum of 33 points! Question 8A: What position will the top song be off Drake's "Honestly, Nevermind" in its second week? (7/9 chart)? Jimmy Cooks wound up in spot #5! Oddly, not one of the 14 predictors called this one - the closest were 2 guesses for #6. Given that no one got it exactly, the winning points will be halved, from 70 to a still-impressive 35. Music Fan and phieaglesfan712 (14%, 2 of 14) tied for the closest guess at #6, and will each earn 35 points! Question 8B: How many songs from Drake's "Honestly, Nevermind" will be in on the top 20 in its second week (7/9 chart)? Only 2 songs made it: Jimmy and Sticky. 3 of you got it, and the other 11 guessed he would have more than 2. Definitely a relative underperformance for Drake! joshtheking Limited Edition livelightning (21%, 3 of 14) guessed exactly 2, and will each earn the BIG sum of 47 points! Looking ahead:- "As It Was" continues to dominate the charts, ruling for 4 of 5 weeks so far this summer. (80% said it would NOT be song of the summer; 25% said there would be 5+ #1 songs this summer; 25% said there would be 5+ weeks of rap #1's this summer)
- Post and Doja's "I Like You" continues to pick up steam on radio as it hovers in the top 20 (31% predicted ILY would reach the Top 5)
- RUTH looks unlikely to secure the #1 (15% thought it would hit #1 this week)
Click here to see full selections & scoresSo how has all this changed the rankings? joshtheking holds onto their lead, while phieaglesfan712, kindofbiased, and gikem all make big moves up the leaderboard! Scoreboard1 (=) joshtheking 206 2 (β²4) phieaglesfan712 169 3 (=) Limited Edition 163 4 (βΌ2) enwhy 161 5 (β²6) kindofbiased 132 6 (β²1) 85la 129 7 (βΌ3) Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 116 7 (βΌ3) imhappy259 116 9 (=) act ii: OTAVIO 113 10 (βΌ2) annoymous1 105 11 (β²4) gikem 83 12 (βΌ2) khan 79 13 (βΌ2) livelightning 76 14 (βΌ1) pokepikalem 75 15 (βΌ1) Rose Knows Nylund 65
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jul 10, 2022 22:04:37 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, July 14)
Q1: Lizzo-mentum Lizzo's second album has some potential to shake up the charts. Still, there are some question marks. For one, she has never debuted a solo song in the top 40 - Rumors had the assist from Cardi. Second, Lizzo depends on virality more than any other A-list artist today, and it's not clear if that's a reliable strategy. It will be interesting to see how her first album drop since blowing up in 2019 will fare. Will Lizzo have multiple songs in the Top 20 on her album release week? (7/30 chart)* *Including About Damn Time
Q2: Lizzo-gevity But of course, Lizzo's specialty is the slow-burn hits. Even if her debut week is nothing special (pun intended), there are a lot of questions about what happens next. Will another song go viral? Is radio now bought in enough to push a non-streaming hit of hers? We'll have to wait and see. Will another Lizzo song (not About Damn Time) spend 10+ weeks on the chart this year? (By 12/31 chart)
Q3: Your Best New Artist of 2022...Metallica! Continuing the fun trend of old song revivals, Metallica's "Master of Puppets" looks set to debut this week. Like Running Up That Hill, Master of Puppets also has Stranger Things to thank, after the song made an appearance in the finale. The song is getting a lot of hype on streaming, but will this turn into a RUTH-style chart run, or is this just a quick fad? Will Metallica's "Master of Puppets" spend 5+ weeks on the chart this year? (By 12/31 chart)
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Jul 10, 2022 22:09:59 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes 3. Yes, but I will only spend around 10 weeks on the hot 100 and two weeks in the top 25. It won't be anything close to RUTH.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jul 10, 2022 23:37:48 GMT -5
Question about #1. Is it multiple including ADT or not? 2. Yes 3. Yes, but I will only spend around 10 weeks on the hot 100 and two weeks in the top 25. It won't be anything close to RUTH. Yes, the first question includes ADT!
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Jul 10, 2022 23:38:55 GMT -5
Question about #1. Is it multiple including ADT or not? 2. Yes 3. Yes, but I will only spend around 10 weeks on the hot 100 and two weeks in the top 25. It won't be anything close to RUTH. Yes, the first question includes ADT! Thx.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jul 11, 2022 5:13:49 GMT -5
1. Yes, seeing that Brent Faiyaz is likely going to score at least 2 Top 20 hits this week, I think Lizzo will get at least one more in the Top 20 besides ADT.
2. No, I think this will turn out to be something similar to the Jack Harlow album. ADT will continue to dominate the charts, but no second single emerges.
3. Yes, the first two weeks on the chart are basically guaranteed for Master of Puppets, so the question becomes can it stay strong enough for 3 more tracking weeks? I think it will, and probably rather easily.
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renfield75
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Post by renfield75 on Jul 11, 2022 9:56:49 GMT -5
1) No 2) Yes 3) No
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Jul 11, 2022 10:03:32 GMT -5
1 Yes 2 Yes 3 No
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khan
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Post by khan on Jul 11, 2022 10:45:51 GMT -5
Oops totally forgot to do the last few rounds. Time to jump back in!
1. Yes - Obviously ADT will be in the top twenty, probably the top three, on album release week. Considering how crazy album bombs have been ever since the drought of winter ended, I don't see Lizzo having any problems with securing at least one top twenty debut from the album.
2. No - Hate to say it, but things don't look good for Lizzo once ADT starts falling off. A big superstar collab in Rumors barely lasted on the Hot 100, and ADT relied on a very, very lucky TikTok trend. Lizzo, of course, seems to have a higher chance of getting those TikTok memes than other artists, but it's still random chance. As of now, I don't see anything other than ADT lasting. Hell, ADT might even cannibalize the streams of any other single that gets promoted on album release.
3. Yes - Oh yeah, we've seen the Stranger Things power. Even Pass the Dutchie is still on the Spotify charts. MOP won't last as long as RUTH, and sadly I doubt any shot at the Year-End Hot 100, but 5+ weeks feels like an easy bet.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2022 11:01:22 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. No 3. Yes
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jul 11, 2022 11:15:27 GMT -5
^^Same thing happened to me last week.
1. Yes. I would like to think that Lizzo has become enough of a household name to be able to achieve this. 2. No. 3. No. The Hot 100 recurrent rule will prevent this from happening.
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Post by big2000 on Jul 11, 2022 12:31:04 GMT -5
1. Yes, she should eke out at least one more song in the top 20 other than About Damn Time. 2. Yes, I think there will be one song that lingers for a while but doesnβt take the spotlight away from ADT. 3. Yes, I think it will make it on the chart, but it wonβt be anywhere near as big as Running Up That Hill as the hype for Stranger Things is dying down. This is also why I think RUTH will start to fall off once it reaches #1 or #2.
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Music Fan
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Post by Music Fan on Jul 11, 2022 13:35:02 GMT -5
1. Yes. (I think she'll have 2 songs Top 20) 2. No. 3. Yes.
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on Jul 11, 2022 13:37:33 GMT -5
1. Yes, I think she could notch 1 or 2 top 20 debuts from the album impact 2. No, I feel like this album cycle is gonna be dominated by About Damn Time and nothing else will really come close 3. Yes, it won't be anywhere near the size of Running Up That Hill but it'll probably linger in the top 50 long enough to make 5 weeks
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Jul 11, 2022 13:51:05 GMT -5
1. No- Honestly, I'm not even expecting a Top 40 debut. I'll gladly take being proven wrong though lol 2. Yes- If she promotes another single, I could see it charting for a bit even if it is due to radio impact 3. No- I think the hype for this one will die down a lot quicker than RUTH
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Post by Limited Edition on Jul 11, 2022 17:39:42 GMT -5
Q1: No Q2: Yes Q3: No
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otaviohmg
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Post by otaviohmg on Jul 11, 2022 18:04:16 GMT -5
1: No 2: No 3: No
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jul 13, 2022 21:00:39 GMT -5
1. Yes - If her team is smart they'll have a second single picked out to promote
2. Yes - Should be doable if radio is on board.
3. No - Didn't realize it had to stay above #50 when I wrote the question. I don't think it'll make it longer than a couple weeks.
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Jul 14, 2022 5:40:42 GMT -5
Wait. Why does MOP have to stay in the top 50? This is it's first week on the hot 100.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jul 14, 2022 7:18:49 GMT -5
Wait. Why does MOP have to stay in the top 50? This is it's first week on the hot 100. You may be right... the only reference I can find on their website says the top 50 things applies to re-entries. Not sure if any of these rules apply to a 35-year old song that's never charted. Anyone know?
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Jul 14, 2022 7:29:14 GMT -5
Wait. Why does MOP have to stay in the top 50? This is it's first week on the hot 100. You may be right... the only reference I can find on their website says the top 50 things applies to re-entries. Not sure if any of these rules apply to a 35-year old song that's never charted. Anyone know? I'm not really sure how it works... When Something In The Way debuted, it went recurrent again after dropping below 50. But when Still D.R.E re-entered, it was able to stay on the chart below the top 50. You can just make the question apply to however weeks it spends in the top 50 anyway, even if it is allowed to chart below 50
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85la
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Post by 85la on Jul 14, 2022 12:32:11 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes 3. No
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β¨ ππ β¨
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adamantly has less time here :(
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My Charts
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Post by β¨ ππ β¨ on Jul 14, 2022 21:00:26 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes 3. Yes
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jul 17, 2022 6:57:04 GMT -5
Here's this week's score update! Question 6C: Will another song originally released prior to 2020 peak in the top 40 this year (Through the 12/31 chart)?* A couple of months later, Metallica's "Master of Puppets" (1986) earns a top 40 spot thanks to Stranger Things. 85la annoymous1 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan @imhappy259 joshtheking khan kindofbiased phieaglesfan712 (80%, 8 of 10) each correctly predicted this, and each earn 13 points. Question 9A: Will Kate Bush's "Running Up That Hill" be next week's #1 song? (7/16 chart) Tragically, no it was not. RUTH saw a huge streaming rebound, but it was only enough to send it to #4 on the 7/16 chart. 85la Baby Yoda Hot100Fan Fears in the Fire enwhy @imhappy259 inverse joshtheking kindofbiased Limited Edition livelightning renfield75 (85%, 11 of 13) all correctly guessed this, each earning 12 points. Looking ahead:- "As It Was" continues to dominate the charts, ruling for 5 of 6 weeks so far this summer. (80% said it would NOT be song of the summer; 25% said there would be 5+ #1 songs this summer; 25% said there would be 5+ weeks of rap #1's this summer)
- Post and Doja's "I Like You" continues to pick up steam on radio as it hovers in the top 20 (31% predicted ILY would reach the Top 5)
- Lizzo's album is struggling on streaming out of the gate. As a whole, it's looking like we may have overestimated her performance (75% predicted she would debut another top 20 hit this week; 56% predicted she would have another song chart for 10 weeks)
Click here to see full selections & scoresNo major movement on the leaderboard this week, as both questions saw big majorities of you guess correctly. Scoreboard1 (=) joshtheking 219 2 (=) phieaglesfan712 182 3 (=) Limited Edition 163 4 (=) enwhy 161 5 (=) kindofbiased 145 6 (=) 85la 142 7 (=) Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 129 7 (=) imhappy259 129 9 (β²1) annoymous1 118 10 (βΌ1) act ii: OTAVIO 113 11 (β²1) khan 92 12 (βΌ1) gikem 83 13 (=) livelightning 76 14 (=) pokepikalem 75 15 (=) Rose Knows Nylund 65
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