.indulgecountry
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"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Feb 23, 2023 18:19:44 GMT -5
Country #’s are extremely low across the board thanks to streaming starting to fully takeover. Probably will sell somewhere in the 20-40k range for the first week sales. Idk about all that. Streaming was very much already a thing by 2018 when The Mountain dropped and he pulled like 90k pure sales. He just doesn't have a hit this time. Bet you it does about 50kI would be SHOCKED if this did anywhere close to that. I'm expecting it to open closer to half that. Comparing it to 2022 releases from big names in country: Luke Combs and Zach Bryan did just over 70k Kane Brown - 46k Jason Aldean - 37k, 26k (two-part album) Miranda Lambert - 36k Walker Hayes - 33k Carrie Underwood - 31k Thomas Rhett - 29k Essentially all of them had much bigger radio hits (except maybe MirLam) or streaming hype (i.e. Zach Bryan) to support their records than "Gold" has been for Dierks, too. I'd predict he lands somewhere in the 20k range personally.
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matty005
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Post by matty005 on Feb 23, 2023 18:25:58 GMT -5
I think 28k-32k sounds about right compared to other artists at his level recently. I would be pleasantly surprised if it is more. I'm going to go with the under on this. I hope I am wrong but he has ZERO buzz right now.
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mccloud
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Post by mccloud on Feb 25, 2023 5:57:50 GMT -5
Probably gonna be a pretty steep drop in sales as opposed to his career highs of around 100k first week with his last 2 albums in 2016 and 2018 The first week of these two albums are boosted by concert ticket bundles, which are basically non-existant nowadays thanks to the rule change in Billboard charts. Eh yeah The Weeknd dropped like 200k down in pure sales from AH to DFM so it wouldn't shock me. Kenny Chesney will have a huge dip too (lol @ his 2020 album beating Drake by like 2k cause of bundles). You can't tell me i'm wrong about Dierks having a renaissance in popularity from 2013 to 2018 with all those big hits though. Especially Drunk On a Plane and Somewhere On a Beach.
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mccloud
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Post by mccloud on Feb 25, 2023 6:00:21 GMT -5
I think 28k-32k sounds about right compared to other artists at his level recently. I would be pleasantly surprised if it is more. I'm going to go with the under on this. I hope I am wrong but he has ZERO buzz right now. Yeah he scrapped 2 albums that sounded like Gone and Beers On Me to give the fans something less commercial so i'm sure he's fully aware this isn't about to sell like Riser and Black
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.indulgecountry
Diamond Member
Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Feb 25, 2023 13:24:52 GMT -5
You can't tell me i'm wrong about Dierks having a renaissance in popularity from 2013 to 2018 with all those big hits though. Especially Drunk On a Plane and Somewhere On a Beach. The sales climate was totally different then though. I provided a bunch of examples from 2022 for album openings for comparison, because that's much more accurate than comparing the difference from album eras over several years at this point.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Feb 25, 2023 13:38:04 GMT -5
Both can be (and likely are) true - he *did* see a resurgence of popularity fueled by Drunk on a Plane which likely spurred the first-week sales successes he enjoyed for Riser, Black, and the Mountain. But yes, sales are lower across the board now and I don't think anyone at UMG is expecting this to have a blockbuster week with the first single just outside the Top 10, Dierks in the 20th year of his career, and this leaning a bit more traditional sonically. Honestly I don't know how much commercial success they're expecting for him going forward. He'll continue to be a draw on the tour circuit (especially with this summer's opener but that's not public yet lol), but this is definitely more of an album he wanted to make rather than chasing radio hits (see Gone and Beers on Me getting chopped) so I feel like they're letting him do what he wants and if it hits, great, if not, he's happy and honestly UMG has little to complain about for a 20 year consistent artist.
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SHOOTER
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Post by SHOOTER on Feb 25, 2023 19:25:40 GMT -5
He's not lumped in with first-week projections for new releases and the lowest is rapper Key Glock with 24-27k SPS for his new mixtape. Guesstimating he'll probably land somewhere in the 15-20k SPS range (although things can change as the week progresses but I wouldn't expect a major uptick).
It's a good album though which is what matters most.
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recordyear
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Post by recordyear on Feb 26, 2023 2:24:19 GMT -5
I think the number is even lower than 15-20k SPS. The song with the lowest play on Spotify has 13,262 streams only. Even the focus track Walking Each Other Home has only 134,192 streams. The album peaked at around #50 on US Apple Music Top Albums, and only Cowboy Boots appears on Amazon Music top songs at #90. The album is only #7 on iTunes too.
Comparing to Jordan Davis's album stats last week (3.8k pure sales and 20k SPS, probably helped by Amazon Music for the SPS compartment), the Dierks album would need a huge physical sales number to make up for the lack of streams.
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recordyear
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Post by recordyear on Feb 27, 2023 18:52:00 GMT -5
Debut at #99 on Hot 100.
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mccloud
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Post by mccloud on Feb 28, 2023 1:55:09 GMT -5
Yeah this has no hype at all. Sadly probably gonna do like 15k
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mccloud
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Post by mccloud on Feb 28, 2023 1:56:50 GMT -5
Both can be (and likely are) true - he *did* see a resurgence of popularity fueled by Drunk on a Plane which likely spurred the first-week sales successes he enjoyed for Riser, Black, and the Mountain. But yes, sales are lower across the board now and I don't think anyone at UMG is expecting this to have a blockbuster week with the first single just outside the Top 10, Dierks in the 20th year of his career, and this leaning a bit more traditional sonically. Honestly I don't know how much commercial success they're expecting for him going forward. He'll continue to be a draw on the tour circuit (especially with this summer's opener but that's not public yet lol), but this is definitely more of an album he wanted to make rather than chasing radio hits (see Gone and Beers on Me getting chopped) so I feel like they're letting him do what he wants and if it hits, great, if not, he's happy and honestly UMG has little to complain about for a 20 year consistent artist. I agree with everything here except the first week sales for Riser. Riser came out months before Drunk On a Plane was a single/got big
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Feb 28, 2023 8:00:47 GMT -5
^ good call re: DOAP coming out after the album was released. Sometimes I forget Bourbon in Kentucky TECHNICALLY kicked off the Riser era but that I Hold On was the 'lead' single for the album (which did well for him). (#justiceforbourboninkentucky) Really excellent performance of Sun Sets in Colorado last night on Fallon. youtu.be/mfrfMYqQGK4
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Feb 28, 2023 20:12:41 GMT -5
Going to be a pretty steep fall for this album. Not projected to make the top 20 on the all genre, which means it will have sold less than 20k units.
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mccloud
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Post by mccloud on Mar 1, 2023 0:28:18 GMT -5
^ good call re: DOAP coming out after the album was released. Sometimes I forget Bourbon in Kentucky TECHNICALLY kicked off the Riser era but that I Hold On was the 'lead' single for the album (which did well for him). (#justiceforbourboninkentucky) Really excellent performance of Sun Sets in Colorado last night on Fallon. youtu.be/mfrfMYqQGK4That, along with Something Real and All The Right Places are my favorites right now. Something Real reminds me of I Hold On lyrically and how melodic it is
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mccloud
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Post by mccloud on Mar 1, 2023 0:31:39 GMT -5
Going to be a pretty steep fall for this album. Not projected to make the top 20 on the all genre, which means it will have sold less than 20k units. Yeah I mean for his last 3 albums he was going off multiple #1 hits each cycle dropping every 2 years. Take a 5 year break save for a couple droplets and release a rootsy comeback album, this starts to make sense. Mind you, Up On The Ridge only did 39k first week back when he was relatively young. Looking back, other posters had some good reasoning for how this would perform.
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SHOOTER
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Post by SHOOTER on Mar 1, 2023 2:55:03 GMT -5
Going to be a pretty steep fall for this album. Not projected to make the top 20 on the all genre, which means it will have sold less than 20k units. His first-week history (since he doesn’t have a main artist thread): Dierks Bentley: #26, 39k Modern Day Drifter; #6, 75k Long Trip Alone: #5, 82k Greatest Hits/Every Mile a Memory: #9, 43k Feel That Fire: #3, 71k Up on the Ridge: #9, 39k Home: #7, 55k Riser: #6, 63k Black: #2, 101k SPS (88k sales) The Mountain: #3, 102k SPS (94k sales) This is shaping up to be his weakest debut yet (an 85% drop from TM if he pulls in 15k SPS).
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Mar 2, 2023 12:22:14 GMT -5
Country radio playing another song:
DIERKS BENTLEY Sun Sets In Colorado 1 23
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SHOOTER
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Post by SHOOTER on Mar 3, 2023 17:04:44 GMT -5
Gravel & Gold did not make the top-50 per HITS. Tragic.
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Post by ethansdelicate on Mar 6, 2023 23:13:34 GMT -5
Gravel & Gold did not make the top-50 per HITS. Tragic. the cutoff is 13.6k...
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SHOOTER
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Post by SHOOTER on Mar 7, 2023 12:44:09 GMT -5
Dierks Bentley: #26, 39k Modern Day Drifter; #6, 75k Long Trip Alone: #5, 82k Greatest Hits/Every Mile a Memory: #9, 43k Feel That Fire: #3, 71k Up on the Ridge: #9, 39k Home: #7, 55k Riser: #6, 63k Black: #2, 101k SPS (88k sales) The Mountain: #3, 102k SPS (94k sales) Gravel & Gold: #73, 12k SPS (#14 Top Country Albums) On the upside, Gold moves up to #90 on the Hot 100.
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austin
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Post by austin on Mar 7, 2023 13:18:49 GMT -5
He hasn’t had an album in a long time, despite staying active with singles, but that drop is a lot more than I expected. I anticipated Maren/Carrie numbers.
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schnetzka
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Post by schnetzka on Mar 7, 2023 14:36:00 GMT -5
Other than a few outliers like Morgan's new album, most country acts don't chart all that high on Billboard Top 200 anymore ever since the ticket bundles were taken away. So it doesn't surprise me. However, only debuting at #14 on the Top Country Charts is a little shocking to me.
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.indulgecountry
Diamond Member
Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Mar 7, 2023 18:52:43 GMT -5
On the one hand, I am a bit surprised that his total is that low (like not even making the top 10 of the country charts feels wild to me), but OTOH, "Gold" has been a very low-impact single for him. I think he would've been better off if he'd kept "Gone" and/or "Beers on Me" on the album or dropped an album sooner on the strength of either of those, but I understand his decision to drop them for the sake of following his artistic vision. He's definitely at a stage in his career where he'll be "fine" making a move like that, since he's been around for 20 years now, but he did sacrifice some commercial impact with that decision.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Mar 7, 2023 21:50:03 GMT -5
I agree. As the resident Dierks stan (lol), I'm kind of not that surprised? I don't know. I definitely feel like if he'd released an album after Beers on Me, for instance, it likely would have performed better but on the other hand, idk, do I want that album? I feel like no. Obviously that's just me personally but I'm happy with the end result he put out and feel like if he'd left Gone and BoM on there they would have stuck out like sort thumbs. And ultimately he's happy and it's been fairly well-received so far critically, so, eh. It is what it is.
I really have no idea what direction they'll go with as far as future singles. Nothing in particular jumps out at me as a slam dunk (in light of the struggles Gold has been having and to me it's as radio friendly as they come). I think Heartbreak Drinking Tour could be a strong bet, and I think I'd like to see Walking Each Other Home released (though I'd expect that to perform similarly to Long Trip Alone and Riser).
Ultimately this isn't going to be his most commercially successful era. It's just not. The tour will do well, I don't doubt that, and he put out a solid album he's happy with. He's been around for 20 years, he'll be relevant but will he be a consistent #1 at radio? Tough to say. He's obviously capable of scoring those hits, and I'm sure he still will, but I wouldn't expect anything as high impact as Drunk on a Plane.
I shall end my novel now! Seeing him in Missouri in July, woo! LOL
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Mar 7, 2023 22:57:18 GMT -5
I'd like to see Walking Each Other Home released (though I'd expect that to perform similarly to Long Trip Alone and Riser). You say as if LTA was a flop lol it was a top 10 hit 😋
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.indulgecountry
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Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Mar 7, 2023 22:58:59 GMT -5
I'd like to see Walking Each Other Home released (though I'd expect that to perform similarly to Long Trip Alone and Riser). You say as if LTA was a flop lol it was a top 10 hit 😋 It was released during the stretch where he sent everything else top 5, if not #1 though. 😜
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Mar 7, 2023 23:08:25 GMT -5
I will always maintain that "Long Trip Alone" is Dierks Bentley's best single and his best music video as well imo.
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Mar 8, 2023 0:01:32 GMT -5
You say as if LTA was a flop lol it was a top 10 hit 😋 It was released during the stretch where he sent everything else top 5, if not #1 though. 😜 True, but it wasn't a complete flop or anything. If Dierks' next single does what that does then it'll be a success.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Mar 8, 2023 8:13:57 GMT -5
It was released during the stretch where he sent everything else top 5, if not #1 though. 😜 True, but it wasn't a complete flop or anything. If Dierks' next single does what that does then it'll be a success. A fair point! I mean, a top 10 for anything on this album would be a success as far as I'm concerned. Hearing Same Ol' Me is in the mix for the next single, along with Walking Each Other Home and Heartbreak Drinking Tour.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Mar 8, 2023 8:21:32 GMT -5
I am team "Walking Each Other Home" is it the most radio friendly? No, but it is my favorite song on the album and deserves a full release, music video and attention.
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