2023 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 11)

[artistry]

Did 2023 have the most country songs on the year end list? I know many people are happy to see Kacey Musgraves finally get a song on this list.

[mikerivera]

Nov 22, 2023 7:12:11 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

This is the third time The Weeknd has had multiple songs in the YE Top 10 after 2015 and 2021, I don't think that has ever happened before.

Well, yes...and no. It depends on how you look at it. No one else has had 3 years with multiple top 10 entries on the Year End Hot 100. However, the Hot 100 wasn't created until 1958. Before the Hot 100, Billboard still had a weekly Top 100 list that factored in sales, radio...and jukebox activity. That last one was dropped when Billboard revamped the chart. If we expand to include the year end publications from these years, Elvis Presley also had 3 years of multiple top 10s, with 3 entries in 1956 (Heartbreak Hotel #1, Don't Be Cruel #2, Hound Dog #6), 2 in 1957 (All Shook Up #1, Too Much #9), and 2 in 1960 (It's Now or Never #7, Stuck On You #9). It should be noted that the Year End publications from 1956-1958 only listed 50 songs, which was actually an increase from the 30 song lists prior. 

That said, it's surprising to me that this would only be the second time. You'd think *somebody* else would have pulled it off. But, since I did all this research, might as well share the other artists that have done it multiple times
Drake: 2016, 2018
The Chainsmokers: 2016, 2017
Post Malone: 2018, 2019

Yup, that's it. Plenty of other artists have done it once, but doing it multiple times is historically rare, and if you don't count the years before 1959, the first time that happened was The Chainsmokers in 2017. What might be even more surprising are some of the artists who have never done it even once. These include:
-Taylor Swift
-Adele
-Rihanna
-Ed Sheeran
-Prince
-Elton John
-Whitney Houston
-Beyoncé
-The Rolling Stones
-Phil Collins
-Bon Jovi
-The Beach Boys
-Britney Spears
-Bruno Mars
-Janet Jackson
-Maroon 5
-Justin Timberlake
-Creedence Clearwater Revival

I say I'm surprised because I know all of them have had extraordinarily massive years, yet that doesn't show up. Taylor Swift in particular was screwed over, because had it not been for the early cut off, she would have gotten it this year with Cruel Summer joining Anti-Hero. This is now the second time that's happened, as Love Story finished at #5 and You Belong With Me finished at #11 in 2009. The latter was still charting when the tracking window ended in November. 

[avamaxstan]

So if Billboard hadn't randomly cut this year short to 49 weeks, Taylor did it this year. Good enough for me :)

[PositivityMaster48]

Nov 22, 2023 11:12:20 GMT -5 artistry said:

Did 2023 have the most country songs on the year end list? I know many people are happy to see Kacey Musgraves finally get a song on this list.

Full list of country songs and their placements:
1) Morgan Wallen - Last Night
8) Luke Combs - Fast Car
12) Morgan Wallen - You Proof
13) Zach Bryan - Something In The Orange
16) Bailey Zimmerman - Rock And A Hard Place
19) Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me
22) Morgan Wallen - Thought You Should Know
23) Kane Brown with Katelyn Brown - Thank God
34) Jelly Roll - Need A Favor
36) Luke Combs - Love You Anyway
37) Morgan Wallen - One Thing At A Time
42) Bailey Zimmerman - Religiously
47) Jordan Davis - Next Thing You Know
54) HARDY ft. Lainey Wilson - Wait In The Truck
56) Morgan Wallen - Everything I Love
58) Lainey Wilson - Heart Like A Truck
59) Luke Combs - Going, Going, Gone
61) Tyler Hubbard - Dancin' In The Country
66) Jason Aldean - Try That In A Small Town
67) Megan Moroney - Tennessee Orange
74) Zach Bryan ft. Kacey Musgraves - I Remember Everything
78) Oliver Anthony Music - Rich Men North of Richmond
85) Parker McCollum - Handle On You
87) Old Dominion - Memory Lane
89) Kane Brown - Bury Me In Georgia
91) Jordan Davis - What My World Spins Around
92) Morgan Wallen - Ain't That Some
93) Corey Kent - Wild As Her
95) Morgan Wallen - I Wrote That Book
100) Lainey Wilson - Watermelon Moonshine
Total: 30 (The most country songs on a YE list.)

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Nov 22, 2023 15:51:34 GMT -5 avamaxstan said:

So if Billboard hadn't randomly cut this year short to 49 weeks, Taylor did it this year. Good enough for me :)

Looking at the predictions from both Austin and TOTC, even if the Year-End went the full 52 weeks, "Cruel Summer" still would've missed the Top 10 and would've ended up at either her favorite number at #13 or #14.

[85la]

Nov 22, 2023 13:56:05 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Nov 22, 2023 7:12:11 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

This is the third time The Weeknd has had multiple songs in the YE Top 10 after 2015 and 2021, I don't think that has ever happened before.

Well, yes...and no. It depends on how you look at it. No one else has had 3 years with multiple top 10 entries on the Year End Hot 100. However, the Hot 100 wasn't created until 1958. Before the Hot 100, Billboard still had a weekly Top 100 list that factored in sales, radio...and jukebox activity. That last one was dropped when Billboard revamped the chart. If we expand to include the year end publications from these years, Elvis Presley also had 3 years of multiple top 10s, with 3 entries in 1956 (Heartbreak Hotel #1, Don't Be Cruel #2, Hound Dog #6), 2 in 1957 (All Shook Up #1, Too Much #9), and 2 in 1960 (It's Now or Never #7, Stuck On You #9). It should be noted that the Year End publications from 1956-1958 only listed 50 songs, which was actually an increase from the 30 song lists prior. 

That said, it's surprising to me that this would only be the second time. You'd think *somebody* else would have pulled it off. But, since I did all this research, might as well share the other artists that have done it multiple times
Drake: 2016, 2018
The Chainsmokers: 2016, 2017
Post Malone: 2018, 2019

Yup, that's it. Plenty of other artists have done it once, but doing it multiple times is historically rare, and if you don't count the years before 1959, the first time that happened was The Chainsmokers in 2017. What might be even more surprising are some of the artists who have never done it even once. These include:
-Taylor Swift
-Adele
-Rihanna
-Ed Sheeran
-Prince
-Elton John
-Whitney Houston
-Beyoncé
-The Rolling Stones
-Phil Collins
-Bon Jovi
-The Beach Boys
-Britney Spears
-Bruno Mars
-Janet Jackson
-Maroon 5
-Justin Timberlake
-Creedence Clearwater Revival

I say I'm surprised because I know all of them have had extraordinarily massive years, yet that doesn't show up. Taylor Swift in particular was screwed over, because had it not been for the early cut off, she would have gotten it this year with Cruel Summer joining Anti-Hero. This is now the second time that's happened, as Love Story finished at #5 and You Belong With Me finished at #11 in 2009. The latter was still charting when the tracking window ended in November. 

To chart two or more songs in the top 10 during any one specific chart year period is a very specific time, and as such, is quite hard to do. A better way to look at it is to gauge within any one year period (or roughly from one era), maximizing the best possible timing, how many songs from an artist would likely be in the top 10. This expands things quite a bit. As you say, if the timing were better for Taylor, she probably would have done it not two but three separate times as well (Love Story and You Belong with Me from Fearless, Shake it Off and Blank Space from 1989, and Anti-Hero and Cruel Summer this year). Mariah Carey also has multiple year-end top 10 equivalent hits for at least three separate eras (Vision of Love and Loves Takes Time from her debut, Dreamlover and Hero from Music Box, and Fantasy, One Sweet Day, and Always Be My Baby from Daydream). 

This would also yield multiple top 10s per year for eras from many of the other artists you mentioned as well, including Adele (Rolling in the Deep, Someone Like You, and possibly Set Fire to the Rain from 21), Ed Sheeran (Shape of You and Perfect from Divide, and Bad Habits and Shivers from Equals), Beyonce (Crazy in Love and Baby Boy from Dangerously in Love), Bruno Mars (Just the Way You Are and Grenade from Doo Wops and Hooligans), and Maroon 5 (Payphone and One More Night from Overexposed).

[PositivityMaster48]

This is a list of all the songs that have been caught between years in the 2023 YE charting period.

[85la]

Another interesting thing I noticed is that at #5, Creepin' outranks I Don't Wanna Know (the song it samples) on the year-end Hot 100, which was #7 in 2004. First listening to the song, I never could have imagined it would go on to be bigger than the original!

[Abbaschand]

This year, I didn't do that bad!

Only two songs from my Top 100 missed the Year-End list: Lady Gaga (94) and AMG (96). Ironic that both are Regional Mexican songs that featured Peso Pluma.

The two songs that made it instead? A Holly Jolly Christmas (106) and Last Christmas (115). F**king Christmas songs, man.

I'm gonna postpone next year's prediction. I'm still gonna be here, just trying to lessen my workload.

[Abbaschand]

Anyway, just for fun, here's my 54-week prediction. The "Everyone Wins" scenario, as I liked to call it.

1 Morgan Wallen - Last Night 362.0
2 SZA - Kill Bill 340.0
3 Miley Cyrus - Flowers 339.0
4 Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero 337.0
5 Metro Boomin - Creepin' (feat. The Weeknd and 21 Savage) 300.0
6 Rema - Calm Down (feat. Selena Gomez) 283.5
7 Luke Combs - Fast Car 265.0
8 SZA - Snooze 265.0
9 The Weeknd - Die for You (feat. Ariana Grande) 241.5
10 David Guetta - I'm Good (feat. Bebe Rexha) 207.5

11 Morgan Wallen - You Proof 197.0
12 Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me 196.5
13 Zach Bryan - Something In the Orange 190.5
14 Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 189.0
15 Sam Smith - Unholy (feat. Kim Petras) 186.5
16 Harry Styles - As It Was 173.0
17 Bailey Zimmerman - Rock and a Hard Place 161.5
18 Drake & 21 Savage - Rich Flex 160.5
19 Chris Brown - Under the Influence 158.5
20 Morgan Wallen - Thought You Should Know 153.0

21 Jelly Roll - Need a Favor 152.5
22 Lil Durk - All My Life (feat. J. Cole) 152.0
23 Miguel - Sure Thing 151.5
24 Toosii - Favorite Song 151.0
25 Kane Brown - Thank God (feat. Katelyn Brown) 147.0
26 Gunna - F U Mean 145.5
27 Taylor Swift - Karma (feat. Ice Spice) 142.0
28 Dua Lipa - Dance the Night 140.0
29 PinkPantheress - Boy's a Liar, Pt. 2 (feat. Ice Spice) 138.5
30 Eslabon Armado - Ella Baila Sola (feat. Peso Pluma) 138.5

31 Olivia Rodrigo - Vampire 138.0
32 Lil Uzi Vert - Just Wanna Rock 134.5
33 Doja Cat - Paint the Town Red 129.0
34 Coi Leray - Players 122.0
35 Luke Combs - Love You Anyway 121.0
36 Beyonce - Cuff It 120.5
37 Taylor Swift - Lavender Haze 117.0
38 Nicki Minaj - Barbie World (feat. Ice Spice and Aqua) 116.0
39 Bailey Zimmerman - Religiously 115.0
40 Morgan Wallen - One Thing at a Time 110.5

41 Yng Lvcas - La Bebe (feat. Peso Pluma) 109.5
42 Fifty Fifty - Cupid 104.5
43 Metro Boomin - Superhero (feat. Future and Chris Brown) 103.5
44 Jordan Davis - Next Thing You Know 102.0
45 Drake - Search & Rescue 101.0
46 David Kushner - Daylight 100.0
47 JVKE - Golden Hour 98.5
48 Steve Lacy - Bad Habit 97.5
49 Grupo Frontera - Un x100to (feat. Bad Bunny) 97.0
50 Drake & 21 Savage - Spin Bout U 96.0

51 RAYE - Escapism (feat. 070 Shake) 94.5
52 Zach Bryan - I Remember Everything (feat. Kacey Musgraves) 92.0
53 Morgan Wallen - Everything I Love 91.0
54 Stephen Sanchez - Until I Found You 87.0
55 Meghan Trainor - Made You Look 86.0
56 Post Malone - Chemical 86.0
57 Doechii - What It Is (feat. Kodak Black) 86.0
58 HARDY - Wait in the Truck (feat. Lainey Wilson) 85.5
59 SZA - Shirt 85.0
60 Billie Eilish - What Was I Made For? 83.0

61 Noah Kahan - Dial Drunk (feat. Post Malone) 83.0
62 Jason Aldean - Try That In a Small Town 80.0
63 Ed Sheeran - Eyes Closed 78.0
64 Tyler Hubbard - Dancin' In the Country 77.5
65 Luke Combs - Going, Going, Gone 75.5
66 Lainey Wilson - Heart Like a Truck 75.5
67 Megan Moroney - Tennessee Orange 75.0
68 Karol G - TQG (feat. Shakira) 71.5
69 Rihanna - Lift Me Up 71.5
70 Ice Spice - Princess Diana (feat. Nicki Minaj) 70.5

71 Bad Bunny - Where She Goes 69.5
72 Oliver Anthony - Rich Men North of Richmond 67.5
73 Mariah Carey - All I Want for Christmas Is You 67.5
74 Fuerza Regida - Bebe Dame (feat. Grupo Frontera) 67.0
75 Olivia Rodrigo - Bad Idea, Right? 65.5
76 Lainey Wilson - Watermelon Moonshine 65.5
77 Post Malone - I Like You (feat. Doja Cat) 65.0
78 Travis Scott - Meltdown (feat. Drake) 63.5
79 Travis Scott - I Know? 63.0
80 GloRilla - Tomorrow (feat. Cardi B) 63.0

81 Parker McCollum - Handle On You 63.0
82 Peso Pluma - Lady Gaga (feat. Gabito Ballesteros and Junior H.) 62.0
83 Jungkook - Seven (feat. Latto) 61.0
84 Miley Cyrus - Used to Be Young 60.0
85 SZA - Nobody Gets Me 58.0
86 Bobby Helms - Jingle Bell Rock 57.5
87 Nicki Minaj - Super Freaky Girl 57.5
88 Future - Wait For U (feat. Drake and Tems) 57.5
89 Kali - Area Codes 57.0
90 Chris Stapleton - White Horse 56.5

91 Jelly Roll - Save Me (feat. Lainey Wilson) 56.5
92 Young Nudy - Peaches & Eggplants (feat. 21 Savage) 56.5
93 Peso Pluma - Por Las Noches 56.0
94 Kane Brown - Bury Me In Georgia 56.0
95 Corey Kent - Wild As Her 56.0
96 Brenda Lee - Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree 55.5
97 Peso Pluma - PRC (feat. Natanael Cano) 55.0
98 Old Dominion - Memory Lane 54.0
99 Lady Gaga - Bloody Mary 54.0
100 Latto - Put It On Da Floor Again (feat. Cardi B) 53.5

101 Gabito Ballesteros - AMG (feat. Peso Pluma and Natanael Cano) 52.0
102 Bizarrap - Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 53 (feat. Shakira) 51.0
103 Morgan Wallen - I Wrote the Book 51.0
104 Jordan Davis - What My World Spins Around 50.5
105 Myke Towers - LaLa 50.5
106 Burl Ives - A Holly Jolly Christmas 49.5
107 Morgan Wallen - Ain't That Some 49.5
108 Tate McRae - Greedy 49.0
109 Usher - Good Good (feat. Summer Walker and 21 Savage) 49.0
110 Luke Combs - The Kind of Love We Make 48.0

111 Morgan Wallen - Cowgirls (feat. ERNEST) 48.0
112 Cole Swindell - She Had Me at Heads Carolina 47.5
113 Lizzo - About Damn Time 47.0
114 Karol G - Qlona (feat. Peso Pluma) 46.5
115 Wham! - Last Christmas 46.0
116 Carin Leon - Que Vuelvas (feat. Grupo Frontera) 45.0
117 Sabrina Carpenter - Nonsense 45.0
118 Drake - Slime You Out (feat. SZA) 44.5
119 Fuerza Regida - TQM 44.5
120 Tyler, the Creator - See You Again (feat. Kali Uchis) 44.5

121 Rod Wave - Fight the Feeling 44.0
122 SZA - Low 43.5
123 The Weeknd - Popular (feat. Playboi Carti and Madonna) 43.0
124 HARDY - Truck Bed 43.0
125 Carly Pearce - What He Didn't Do 42.0
126 Fuerza Regida - Sabor Fresa 41.0
127 NLE Choppa - Slut Me Out 40.5

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Nov 23, 2023 23:38:00 GMT -5 85la said:

Another interesting thing I noticed is that at #5, Creepin' outranks I Don't Wanna Know (the song it samples) on the year-end Hot 100, which was #7 in 2004. First listening to the song, I never could have imagined it would go on to be bigger than the original!

I'm Good (Blue) (which is at #10) beats the original Blue (Da Ba Dee) at #49, and Luke Combs' Fast Car (#8) beats the original by Tracy Chapman which ended at #76 (but such a beautiful song like "Fast Car" truly deserves a Year-End Top 10 placement)

[neel]

I think it's safe to say now with the Early 2020s ending in 38 days from now, The Weeknd was biggest artist of this section.

[kingvavis]

Nov 25, 2023 3:02:59 GMT -5 neel said:

I think it's safe to say now with the Early 2020s ending in 38 days from now, The Weeknd was biggest artist of this section.

Depends how you define early 2020's. I'd say the early 2020's were from 2020-22, mid 2020's from 2023-26, and late 2020's from 2027-2029. A good 3-4-3 year splitt of the decade.

[Groovy]

Taylor Swift doesn’t exist?

[jasper0102]

Nov 25, 2023 16:40:28 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Taylor Swift doesn’t exist?

Tbf she is probably a very close 2nd place.

[mikerivera]

Nov 25, 2023 1:48:53 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Nov 23, 2023 23:38:00 GMT -5 85la said:

Another interesting thing I noticed is that at #5, Creepin' outranks I Don't Wanna Know (the song it samples) on the year-end Hot 100, which was #7 in 2004. First listening to the song, I never could have imagined it would go on to be bigger than the original!

I'm Good (Blue) (which is at #10) beats the original Blue (Da Ba Dee) at #49, and Luke Combs' Fast Car (#8) beats the original by Tracy Chapman which ended at #76 (but such a beautiful song like "Fast Car" truly deserves a Year-End Top 10 placement)

Tbf, the original Fast Car is an example of a song that underperformed on the Hot 100 because people who liked the song were buying the album instead of the single. So the #76 placement makes it appear a lot less successful than the song actually is, considering the album sold 6x platinum in the US alone (22 million copies worldwide)

[ephelia]

Nov 25, 2023 3:02:59 GMT -5 neel said:

I think it's safe to say now with the Early 2020s ending in 38 days from now, The Weeknd was biggest artist of this section.

A crude measure is to look at the Year-End Artists (points used are just a basic inverse).

Overall:
1. Drake: 390 (5 - 1 - 4 - 4)
2. Taylor: 388 (9 - 4 - 2 - 1)
3. The Weeknd: 383 (2 - 3 - 9 - 7)
4. Morgan: 368 (24 - 5 - 5 - 2)
5. Luke: 361 (13 - 9 - 16 - 5)
6. Post: 354 (1 - 26 - 13 - 10)
7. Lil Baby: 354 (7 - 14 - 10 - 19)
8. Bad Bunny: 353 (19 - 16 - 1 - 15)
9. Harry: 349 (8 - 30 - 3 - 14)
10. Doja: 341 (22 - 7 - 6 - 28)

Hot 100 only:
1. Drake: 384 (6 - 2 - 8 - 4)
2. The Weeknd: 376 (1 - 3 - 14 - 10)
3. Morgan: 370 (18 - 10 - 5 - 1)
4. Doja: 354 (15 - 5 - 2 - 28)
5. Taylor: 348 (22 - 25 - 6 - 3)
6. Luke: 342 (23 - 11 - 23 - 5)
7. Lil Baby: 340 (4 - 15 - 10 - 35)
8. Dua: 332 (5 - 7 - 17 - 43)
9. Bad Bunny: 315 (43 - 21 - 1 - 24)
10. Harry: 305 (7 - 68 - 3 - 21)

[eagle27]

Taylor and Drake really might be the top 2 artists of the decade again. Both have multiple albums that may stay on the BB200 for the rest of the decade, accumulating tons of points even without an active hit or new release. I think Morgan and The Weeknd will be tough competition though if they maintain their popularity.

[neel]

Nov 26, 2023 23:39:21 GMT -5 eagle27 said:

Taylor and Drake really might be the top 2 artists of the decade again. Both have multiple albums that may stay on the BB200 for the rest of the decade, accumulating tons of points even without an active hit or new release. I think Morgan and The Weeknd will be tough competition though if they maintain their popularity.

If that ends up being what really happens six years from today, it would really say something about both Taylor and Drake.

I don’t think there’s been any artists in music history that saw TWO decades completely come and go and were still able to ranked No. 1 in two consecutive decades. This is something that not even Elvis Presley nor the Beatles came close to achieving. Both Beyoncé and Madonna came extremely close, and maybe Janet Jackson since she dominated the late '80s and the entire '90s.

I believe Michael Jackson would’ve been on track for this accomplishment had his career didn’t start suffering by the end of 1993. And Mariah Carey might have achieved it if she had continued her hit-making streak in the first five years of the 2000s.

Other then those five who came EXTREMELY close, it really shows you how insanely difficult it is to still be on top after a full 19 years have gone by, especially with how trends within music itself are constantly changing.

If Drake’s still on top in December 2029 and is still constantly releasing chart topping songs and albums. Then that would mean in the past 13-17 years since he first carried the “king of rap” title in around 2016-2012, nobody has dethroned him yet. I suspect both Kendrick Lamar and J. Cole that along with Drake were the “New Big Three of Hip Hop” would probably retire by then.

Now Taylor’s the one I truly believe going be the artist of the 2020s and 2023 has really proved that, nothing else to say here.

Now Morgan Wallen (unfortunately) might end up on top if he keeps his streak, and maybe Bad Bunny, Harry Styles or some artist that has yet to debut.

[lukulele]

Rate my Spotify Wrapped

[plankton5165]

Nov 22, 2023 2:16:08 GMT -5 inverse said:

Shoutout to the TOTC folks for being almost perfect. Only mistakes were

30 - Vampire and 31 - fukumean switched (100 point difference)
43 - Spin Bout U two spots too low (300 point difference)
48 - Escapism and 49 - Un x100to switched (700 point difference)
51 - Shirt and 52 - Paint The Town Red switched (500 point difference)
75 - I Like You and 76 - What It Is switched (1100 point difference)

and because even a basically perfect prediction can't get all 100

100 - Watermelon Moonshine and X - Low switched

Talk Of The Charts has earned my trust... for the most part.

I believe any song that gets in their top 95 is certain to make the actual year-end. (95 might be harsh. Maybe it should be Top 97?)

[plankton5165]

If you thought Bloody Mary peaking at #41 and spending just 18 weeks on the chart and still making the year-end would be utterly insane, it is the ONLY song to appear in the year-end without peaking in the top 40!

There was a chance Daylight by David Kushner would accomplish this, and while it did make the year-end, it peaked at #33, so it doesn't meet this criteria.