2023 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 11)

[PositivityMaster48]

Week 20!

[puwrpler04]

Billboard Year End Predictions April Edition
39/100 songs are locked
Cutoff is 140,000

Snooze 100% Clinched Next Week
Nobody Gets Me 95% Needs a Collaspe To miss
Players 100% Clinches in 2 Weeks
One Thing At A Time 100% With Radio Gaining it’s a lock
Low 30% It’ll prolly get to 130,000 but is that enough?
Sure Thing 95% Seeming like a sure thing to make it
Bebe Dame 70% It seems stable enough to make it im just really suprised
Bzrp Music Sessions 53 60% if it falls slow it’ll easily make it
Freestyle 10% If Lil baby pushed this to radio instead of forvever it’d be a lock
Que Vuelvas 10% Needs A recovery in streaming which isn’t impossible the regional Mexican music fluctuates all over the place week by week
Bloody Mary 40% I’m still not convinced since it’ll need a lot and I mean a lot of radio to hold up the next 10 weeks at it’s current pace
What He Didn’t Do 40% Radio has its full support and streams gained this week but will it hold up?
Tennessee Orange 50% Still in decent shape as it has a lot of room to gain on radio
Handle On You 45% Parker’s album will help for a few weeks but not a lot of room left on radio
Wild As Her 5% Radio will prolly drop this month dooming it’s chances
I Wrote The Book And Everything I Love 40% I grouped these together cause they were both pre release singles that can make it if they hold around a 65 point pace till 20 weeks
TQG 75% seems like a streaming giant
Love You Anyways 60% assuming this is the single getting pushed to radio it’ll have no problem since All Luke Combs radio singles have year end runs



Future Hits
Love Again
Dawns
Nonsense
Painting Pictures
Favorite Song
Thinkin Bout Me
In Ha Mood
Ain’t That Some
Ceilings

[rockgolf]

My estimate of the current state of the Billboard Year-end including the Apr 1, 2023 chart:

And projection of where these songs will arrange themselves at the actual year-end:

Year end seq	Song	Artist	YE Est Pts
1	Flowers	Miley Cyrus	8712
2	Kill Bill	SZA	7906
3	Anti-Hero	Taylor Swift	7846
4	Creepin'	Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage	6824
5	Die For You	The Weeknd	6767
6	Last Night	Morgan Wallen	6115
7	Unholy	Sam Smith & Kim Petras	5954
8	I'm Good (Blue)	David Guetta & Bebe Rexha	5284
9	As It Was	Harry Styles	5018
10	Rock And A Hard Place	Bailey Zimmerman	4933
11	Rich Flex	Drake & 21 Savage	4877
12	You Proof	Morgan Wallen	4537
13	Under The Influence	Chris Brown	4497
14	Calm Down	Rema & Selena Gomez	4398
15	Just Wanna Rock	Lil Uzi Vert	4182
16	Boy's A Liar, Pt. 2	PinkPantheress & Ice Spice	4001
17	Lavender Haze	Taylor Swift	3918
18	Cuff It	Beyonce	3814
19	Players	Coi Leray	3750
20	Thank God	Kane Brown With Katelyn Brown	3448
21	Thought You Should Know	Morgan Wallen	3403
22	Something In The Orange	Zach Bryan	3310
23	Until I Found You	Stephen Sanchez	2991
24	Bad Habit	Steve Lacy	2981
25	Golden Hour	JVKE	2714
26	Escapism	RAYE ft. 070 Shake	2641
27	Superhero (Heroes & Villains)	Metro Boomin, Future & Chris Brown	2629
28	Made You Look	Meghan Trainor	2512
29	Shirt	SZA	2446
30	Going, Going, Gone	Luke Combs	2352
31	Spin Bout U	Drake & 21 Savage	2255
32	All I Want For Christmas Is You	Mariah Carey	2241
33	One Thing At A Time	Morgan Wallen	2204
34	Sure Thing	Miguel	2199
35	Heart Like A Truck	Lainey Wilson	2196
36	Lift Me Up	Rihanna	2128
37	Snooze	SZA	2091
38	Wait In The Truck	HARDY ft. Lainey Wilson	2062
39	I Like You (A Happier Song)	Post Malone ft. Doja Cat	1931
40	Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree	Brenda Lee	1899
41	Tomorrow 2	GloRilla & Cardi B	1842
42	Thinkin' Bout Me	Morgan Wallen	1818
43	Wait For U	Future ft. Drake & Tems	1730
44	Super Freaky Girl	Nicki Minaj	1718
45	Jingle Bell Rock	Bobby Helms	1670
46	Nobody Gets Me	SZA	1612
47	All Of The Girls You Loved Before	Taylor Swift	1600
48	TQG	Karol G x Shakira	1524
49	What My World Spins Around	Jordan Davis	1508
50	What He Didn't Do	Carly Pearce	1469
51	Favorite Song	Toosii	1468
52	The Kind Of Love We Make	Luke Combs	1451
53	A Holly Jolly Christmas	Burl Ives	1442
54	She Had Me At Heads Carolina	Cole Swindell	1399
55	Bebe Dame	Fuerza Regida X Grupo Frontera	1360
56	About Damn Time	Lizzo	1353
57	Last Christmas	Wham!	1299
58	Low	SZA	1299
59	Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 53	Bizarrap & Shakira	1264
60	It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year	Andy Williams	1217
61	Bloody Mary	Lady Gaga	1200
62	Everything I Love	Morgan Wallen	1181
63	Unstoppable	Sia	1100
64	Freestyle	Lil Baby	1092
65	I Ain't Worried	OneRepublic	1072
66	Circo Loco	Drake & 21 Savage	1066
67	Feliz Navidad	Jose Feliciano	1063
68	Sunroof	Nicky Youre & dazy	1045
69	The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas To You)	Nat King Cole	1028
70	Que Vuelvas	Carin Leon X Grupo Frontera	1000
71	Handle On You	Parker McCollum	992
72	Vegas	Doja Cat	987
73	Whiskey On You	Nate Smith	983
74	Sleigh Ride	The Ronettes	973
75	Tennessee Orange	Megan Moroney	953
76	Underneath The Tree	Kelly Clarkson	947
77	Ella Baila Sola	Eslabon Armado X Peso Pluma	942
78	Blind	SZA	933
79	Wild As Her	Corey Kent	917
80	Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow	Dean Martin	896
81	It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas	Perry Como And The Fontane Sisters With Mitchell Ayres And His Orchestra	870
82	Son Of A Sinner	Jelly Roll	870
83	I Wrote The Book	Morgan Wallen	854
84	Star Walkin' (League Of Legends Worlds Anthem)	Lil Nas X	841
85	Major Distribution	Drake & 21 Savage	829
86	On BS	Drake & 21 Savage	827
87	Santa Tell Me	Ariana Grande	823
88	Set Me Free, Pt. 2	Jimin	821
89	Wasted On You	Morgan Wallen	814
90	Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)	Darlene Love	767
91	No Se Va	Grupo Frontera	760
92	Love Language	SZA	755
93	White Christmas	Bing Crosby	742
94	Deck The Halls	Nat King Cole	736
95	Ain't That Some	Morgan Wallen	734
96	Too Many Nights	Metro Boomin ft. Don Toliver & Future	715
97	Hold Me Closer	Elton John & Britney Spears	712
98	Jingle Bells	Frank Sinatra	690
99	Pussy & Millions	Drake & 21 Savage ft. Travis Scott	684
100	Love Again	The Kid LAROI	680

[xtynaaguilera99]

Can someone make a 2023 January-December year end chart to date?

[xtynaaguilera99]

Can someone make a 2023 January-December year end chart to date?

[Groovy]

Imagine if the top 3 ends up being Anti Hero, Kill Bill & Flowers (which is very likely), it would be the first time since 1999 that the entire top 3 are women.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Yeah. I would think Last Night is the greatest threat to prevent that from happening.

[rockgolf]

^ I can't see pop radio playing Last Night at the levels needed to stay near the top of the Hot 100 long enough to make top 3 of the year. 

[plankton5165]

Not to mention I've been stunned to see it continue to rank as high as it did since it was #1.

[plankton5165]

Mar 30, 2023 15:22:20 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

My estimate of the current state of the Billboard Year-end including the Apr 1, 2023 chart:

And projection of where these songs will arrange themselves at the actual year-end:

Year end seq	Song	Artist	YE Est Pts
1	Flowers	Miley Cyrus	8712
2	Kill Bill	SZA	7906
3	Anti-Hero	Taylor Swift	7846
4	Creepin'	Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage	6824
5	Die For You	The Weeknd	6767
6	Last Night	Morgan Wallen	6115
7	Unholy	Sam Smith & Kim Petras	5954
8	I'm Good (Blue)	David Guetta & Bebe Rexha	5284
9	As It Was	Harry Styles	5018
10	Rock And A Hard Place	Bailey Zimmerman	4933
11	Rich Flex	Drake & 21 Savage	4877
12	You Proof	Morgan Wallen	4537
13	Under The Influence	Chris Brown	4497
14	Calm Down	Rema & Selena Gomez	4398
15	Just Wanna Rock	Lil Uzi Vert	4182
16	Boy's A Liar, Pt. 2	PinkPantheress & Ice Spice	4001
17	Lavender Haze	Taylor Swift	3918
18	Cuff It	Beyonce	3814
19	Players	Coi Leray	3750
20	Thank God	Kane Brown With Katelyn Brown	3448
21	Thought You Should Know	Morgan Wallen	3403
22	Something In The Orange	Zach Bryan	3310
23	Until I Found You	Stephen Sanchez	2991
24	Bad Habit	Steve Lacy	2981
25	Golden Hour	JVKE	2714
26	Escapism	RAYE ft. 070 Shake	2641
27	Superhero (Heroes & Villains)	Metro Boomin, Future & Chris Brown	2629
28	Made You Look	Meghan Trainor	2512
29	Shirt	SZA	2446
30	Going, Going, Gone	Luke Combs	2352
31	Spin Bout U	Drake & 21 Savage	2255
32	All I Want For Christmas Is You	Mariah Carey	2241
33	One Thing At A Time	Morgan Wallen	2204
34	Sure Thing	Miguel	2199
35	Heart Like A Truck	Lainey Wilson	2196
36	Lift Me Up	Rihanna	2128
37	Snooze	SZA	2091
38	Wait In The Truck	HARDY ft. Lainey Wilson	2062
39	I Like You (A Happier Song)	Post Malone ft. Doja Cat	1931
40	Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree	Brenda Lee	1899
41	Tomorrow 2	GloRilla & Cardi B	1842
42	Thinkin' Bout Me	Morgan Wallen	1818
43	Wait For U	Future ft. Drake & Tems	1730
44	Super Freaky Girl	Nicki Minaj	1718
45	Jingle Bell Rock	Bobby Helms	1670
46	Nobody Gets Me	SZA	1612
47	All Of The Girls You Loved Before	Taylor Swift	1600
48	TQG	Karol G x Shakira	1524
49	What My World Spins Around	Jordan Davis	1508
50	What He Didn't Do	Carly Pearce	1469
51	Favorite Song	Toosii	1468
52	The Kind Of Love We Make	Luke Combs	1451
53	A Holly Jolly Christmas	Burl Ives	1442
54	She Had Me At Heads Carolina	Cole Swindell	1399
55	Bebe Dame	Fuerza Regida X Grupo Frontera	1360
56	About Damn Time	Lizzo	1353
57	Last Christmas	Wham!	1299
58	Low	SZA	1299
59	Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 53	Bizarrap & Shakira	1264
60	It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year	Andy Williams	1217
61	Bloody Mary	Lady Gaga	1200
62	Everything I Love	Morgan Wallen	1181
63	Unstoppable	Sia	1100
64	Freestyle	Lil Baby	1092
65	I Ain't Worried	OneRepublic	1072
66	Circo Loco	Drake & 21 Savage	1066
67	Feliz Navidad	Jose Feliciano	1063
68	Sunroof	Nicky Youre & dazy	1045
69	The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas To You)	Nat King Cole	1028
70	Que Vuelvas	Carin Leon X Grupo Frontera	1000
71	Handle On You	Parker McCollum	992
72	Vegas	Doja Cat	987
73	Whiskey On You	Nate Smith	983
74	Sleigh Ride	The Ronettes	973
75	Tennessee Orange	Megan Moroney	953
76	Underneath The Tree	Kelly Clarkson	947
77	Ella Baila Sola	Eslabon Armado X Peso Pluma	942
78	Blind	SZA	933
79	Wild As Her	Corey Kent	917
80	Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow	Dean Martin	896
81	It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas	Perry Como And The Fontane Sisters With Mitchell Ayres And His Orchestra	870
82	Son Of A Sinner	Jelly Roll	870
83	I Wrote The Book	Morgan Wallen	854
84	Star Walkin' (League Of Legends Worlds Anthem)	Lil Nas X	841
85	Major Distribution	Drake & 21 Savage	829
86	On BS	Drake & 21 Savage	827
87	Santa Tell Me	Ariana Grande	823
88	Set Me Free, Pt. 2	Jimin	821
89	Wasted On You	Morgan Wallen	814
90	Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)	Darlene Love	767
91	No Se Va	Grupo Frontera	760
92	Love Language	SZA	755
93	White Christmas	Bing Crosby	742
94	Deck The Halls	Nat King Cole	736
95	Ain't That Some	Morgan Wallen	734
96	Too Many Nights	Metro Boomin ft. Don Toliver & Future	715
97	Hold Me Closer	Elton John & Britney Spears	712
98	Jingle Bells	Frank Sinatra	690
99	Pussy & Millions	Drake & 21 Savage ft. Travis Scott	684
100	Love Again	The Kid LAROI	680

How do you come up with the numbers from the table below?

[joshtheking]

So is it safe to assume Kill Bill will be year end #1?

[jasper0102]

Mar 31, 2023 12:33:30 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

^Yeah. I would think Last Night is the greatest threat to prevent that from happening.

I could also assume The Weeknd could be another obstacle to that happening with either Creepin or Die For You, but yeah, if anyone's preventing a all-women top 3 it'd be Morgan.

Apr 2, 2023 10:27:05 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

So is it safe to assume Kill Bill will be year end #1?

Yeah. It has like 6 weeks til it surpasses Anti-Hero and it has enough of a headtart to keeping Flowers and Last Night from surpassing it.

[Groovy]

Yeah, now I’m starting to see it too, even if it never hits number 1, it should have no issue topping the YE.

[atg]

Well i hope it happens, considering if Kill Bill actually becomes #1, will be the 2nd time i made a prediction like this and it became true.

Dec 4, 2021 18:07:14 GMT -5 atg said:

pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/190011/2020-billboard-hot-year-predictions?page=1#post-7208858

Since this prediction really happened (almost twice actually), i hope to use these powers to give SZA a #1 YE hit. One can just hope of that happening.

[PositivityMaster48]

Week 21!

[Groovy]

This year is definitely gonna be the year of SZA and Morgan Wallen.

[plankton5165]

I wouldn't say I expect Kill Bill to be #1, but I want Flowers gone.

I've constantly been like, "come on Boy's A Liar, dethrone Flowers".

[reputainbow]

SPOILER: Click to show

{Week 21}1 Anti-Hero (Taylor Swift) 5974
2 Unholy (Sam Smith/Kim Petras) 5001
3 Kill Bill (SZA) 4879
4 Die for You (The Weeknd/Ariana Grande) 4594
5 Creepin' (Metro Boomin/The Weeknd/21 Savage) 4394
6 Flowers (Miley Cyrus) 4187
7 Rich Flex (Drake/21 Savage) 4182
8 I'm Good (Blue) (David Guetta/Bebe Rexha) 4076
9 As It Was (Harry Styles) 3678
10 Cuff It (Beyonce) 3165
11 You Proof (Morgan Wallen) 3091
12 Under the Influence (Chris Brown) 3069
13 Just Wanna Rock (Lil Uzi Vert) 2900.8
14 Bad Habit (Steve Lacy) 2893
15 Something In the Orange (Zach Bryan) 2821.6
16 Rock and a Hard Place (Bailey Zimmerman) 2674.2
17 Last Night (Morgan Wallen) 2633
18 Thank God (Kane Brown/Katelyn Brown) 2597.4
19 Golden Hour (JVKE) 2562.8
20 Lavender Haze (Taylor Swift) 2522.8
21 Calm Down (Rema/Selena Gomez) 2450.2
22 Made You Look (Meghan Trainor) 2385.8
23 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2336
24 Shirt (SZA) 2296.6
25 Until I Found You (Stephen Sanchez) 2256.6
26 Superhero (Heroes & Villains) (Metro Boomin/Future/Chris Brown) 2165
27 Boy's a Liar, Pt. 2 (PinkPantheress/Ice Spice) 2091
28 Lift Me Up (Rihanna) 2082
29 Spin Bout U (Drake/21 Savage) 2059.4
30 Thought You Should Know (Morgan Wallen) 2058
31 Going, Going, Gone (Luke Combs) 2041.2
32 Wait In the Truck (Hardy/Lainey Wilson) 1990.2
33 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 1985
34 Escapism (RAYE/070 Shake) 1958.2
35 Heart Like a Truck (Lainey Wilson) 1924.4
36 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1796
37 I Like You (A Happier Song) (Post Malone/Doja Cat) 1776
38 Tomorrow 2 (Glorilla/Cardi B) 1715.4
39 Snooze (SZA) 1697.6
40 Players (Coi Leray) 1677
41 Nobody Gets Me (SZA) 1604
42 Super Freaky Girl (Nicki Minaj) 1598
43 Wait For U (Future/Drake/Tems) 1591
44 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 1578
45 One Thing At a Time (Morgan Wallen) 1575.2
46 Sure Thing (Miguel) 1429
47 What My World Spins Around (Jordan Davis) 1419.8
48 Bebe Dame (Fuerza Regida/Grupo Frontera) 1386.4
49 Low (SZA) 1359.2
50 Last Christmas (Wham!) 1349
51 The Kind of Love We Make (Luke Combs) 1347
52 She Had Me At Heads Carolina (Cole Swindell) 1328
53 About Damn Time (Lizzo) 1287
54 Shakira: BZRP Music Sessions, Vol. 53 (Bizarrap/Shakira) 1270.2
55 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 1262
56 Freestyle (Lil Baby) 1210
57 Circo Loco (Drake/21 Savage) 1184.6
58 Bloody Mary (Lady Gaga) 1150
59 Whiskey on You (Nate Smith) 1113
60 What He Didn't Do (Carly Pearce) 1109
61 Que Vuelvas (Carin Leon/Grupo Frontera) 1098
62 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 1082
63 Unstoppable (Sia) 1056
64 Handle on You (Parker McCollum) 1055.6
65 Tennessee Orange (Megan Moroney) 1031.6
66 Wild as Her (Corey Kent) 1023.6
67 I Ain't Worried (OneRepublic) 998
68 The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) (Nat King Cole) 985
69 Sunroof (Nicky Youre/Dazy) 978
70 Blind (SZA) 963.6
71 No Se Va (Grupo Frontera) 952.8
72 Major Distribution (Drake/21 Savage) 942
73 Victoria's Secret (Jax) 932.4
74 Sleigh Ride (The Ronettes) 920
75 Vegas (Doja Cat) 917
76 Star Walkin' (Lil Nas X) 911.2
77 On BS (Drake/21 Savage) 897.6
78 I Wrote the Book (Morgan Wallen) 882.8
79 Underneath the Tree (Kelly Clarkson) 880
80 Too Many Nights (Metro Boomin/Future/Don Toliver) 868
81 Everything I Love (Morgan Wallen) 858.4
82 Son of a Sinner (Jelly Roll) 832.2
83 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow (Dean Martin) 827
84 It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas (Perry Como and the Fontane Sisters/Mitchell Ayres and His Orchestra) 817
85 Love Language (SZA) 810.8
86 TQG (Karol G/Shakira) 803
87 Nonsense (Sabrina Carpenter) 799.6
88 Romanic Homicide (D4Vd) 785.2
89 Santa Tell Me (Ariana Grande) 770
90 Pussy & Millions (Drake/21 Savage/Travis Scott) 770
91 Hold Me Closer (Elton John/Britney Spears) 768.4
92 Love You Anyway (Luke Combs) 750.2
93 Wasted on You (Morgan Wallen) 748
94 Love Again (Kid Laroi) 736.8
95 Dawns (Zach Bryan/Maggie Rogers) 726.4
96 Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) (Darlene Love) 724
97 You Didn't (Brett Young) 697.2
98 Here With Me (D4Vd) 689.6
99 White Christmas (Bing Crosby) 686
100 Half of Me (Thomas Rhett/Riley Green) 681.2

[atg]

Apr 4, 2023 19:48:22 GMT -5 Groovy said:

This year is definitely gonna be the year of SZA and Morgan Wallen.

It could also be Metro Boomin’s year too if he released the highly requested Drake remix of Trance and if he gets luck with another sleeper hit taking off later into the year.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[jasper0102]

Apr 4, 2023 19:48:22 GMT -5 Groovy said:

This year is definitely gonna be the year of SZA and Morgan Wallen.

You could also argue it's a big comeback year for the Weeknd. After DAWN FM undeservingly underperformed last year, he seems on track to have 2 songs in the year-end top 10.

Apr 4, 2023 21:51:05 GMT -5 atg said:

Apr 4, 2023 19:48:22 GMT -5 Groovy said:

This year is definitely gonna be the year of SZA and Morgan Wallen.

It could also be Metro Boomin’s year too if he released the highly requested Drake remix of Trance and if he gets luck with another sleeper hit taking off later into the year.

I don't think he's been big enough this year for him to count inspite of Creepin and the album bomb he got.

[rockgolf]

Here's my estimate of where songs currently rank on the top 100 of the year. This for the week of April 8, 2023.

And now projection of where I think songs will end up at the year end.  Someone (plankton5165 who needs to learn how not to quote entire long posts) was asking how I come up with this list. It's basically an educated guess. I assume all song will lose 5% of their points from the previous week each week until they fall below #50 on the chart. It's obviously not precise. Songs falling out of the #1 spot by even a single point lose much more. And of course some songs will go up the chart. But it's a first approximation, and opens eyes to where the year-end might might be heading.

Proj. Year end	Song	Artist	YE Est Pts
1	Flowers	Miley Cyrus	8185
2	Anti-Hero	Taylor Swift	7946
3	Kill Bill	SZA	7754
4	Die For You	The Weeknd	6663
5	Creepin'	Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage	6630
6	Last Night	Morgan Wallen	5941
7	Unholy	Sam Smith & Kim Petras	5636
8	I'm Good (Blue)	David Guetta & Bebe Rexha	5463
9	As It Was	Harry Styles	5217
10	Like Crazy	Jimin	4933
11	Rich Flex	Drake & 21 Savage	4901
12	You Proof	Morgan Wallen	4729
13	Under The Influence	Chris Brown	4669
14	Calm Down	Rema & Selena Gomez	4616
15	Rock And A Hard Place	Bailey Zimmerman	4320
16	Boy's A Liar, Pt. 2	PinkPantheress & Ice Spice	4210
17	Lavender Haze	Taylor Swift	4096
18	Just Wanna Rock	Lil Uzi Vert	3981
19	Players	Coi Leray	3956
20	Cuff It	Beyonce	3820
21	Something In The Orange	Zach Bryan	3813
22	Thank God	Kane Brown With Katelyn Brown	3484
23	Thought You Should Know	Morgan Wallen	3409
24	Bad Habit	Steve Lacy	2981
25	Until I Found You	Stephen Sanchez	2848
26	Sure Thing	Miguel	2828
27	Escapism	RAYE ft. 070 Shake	2796
28	Superhero (Heroes & Villains)	Metro Boomin, Future & Chris Brown	2733
29	Golden Hour	JVKE	2715
30	Made You Look	Meghan Trainor	2512
31	Shirt	SZA	2450
32	Wait In The Truck	HARDY ft. Lainey Wilson	2394
33	One Thing At A Time	Morgan Wallen	2345
34	Heart Like A Truck	Lainey Wilson	2331
35	All I Want For Christmas Is You	Mariah Carey	2241
36	Snooze	SZA	2206
37	Spin Bout U	Drake & 21 Savage	2146
38	Lift Me Up	Rihanna	2128
39	Going, Going, Gone	Luke Combs	2118
40	Favorite Song	Toosii	2095
41	Thinkin' Bout Me	Morgan Wallen	1984
42	I Like You (A Happier Song)	Post Malone ft. Doja Cat	1931
43	Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree	Brenda Lee	1899
44	Tomorrow 2	GloRilla & Cardi B	1842
45	Wait For U	Future ft. Drake & Tems	1730
46	Super Freaky Girl	Nicki Minaj	1718
47	Nobody Gets Me	SZA	1693
48	Jingle Bell Rock	Bobby Helms	1670
49	TQG	Karol G x Shakira	1628
50	Love You Anyway	Luke Combs	1595
51	What My World Spins Around	Jordan Davis	1508
52	The Kind Of Love We Make	Luke Combs	1451
53	Bebe Dame	Fuerza Regida X Grupo Frontera	1449
54	A Holly Jolly Christmas	Burl Ives	1442
55	She Had Me At Heads Carolina	Cole Swindell	1399
56	About Damn Time	Lizzo	1353
57	Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 53	Bizarrap & Shakira	1347
58	Low	SZA	1334
59	Bloody Mary	Lady Gaga	1301
60	Last Christmas	Wham!	1299
61	It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year	Andy Williams	1217
62	What He Didn't Do	Carly Pearce	1149
63	Unstoppable	Sia	1100
64	Freestyle	Lil Baby	1092
65	Handle On You	Parker McCollum	1085
66	I Ain't Worried	OneRepublic	1072
67	Circo Loco	Drake & 21 Savage	1066
68	Feliz Navidad	Jose Feliciano	1063
69	Sunroof	Nicky Youre & dazy	1045
70	Que Vuelvas	Carin Leon X Grupo Frontera	1039
71	Tennessee Orange	Megan Moroney	1035
72	The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas To You)	Nat King Cole	1028
73	Wild As Her	Corey Kent	1005
74	Vegas	Doja Cat	987
75	Whiskey On You	Nate Smith	983
76	Sleigh Ride	The Ronettes	973
77	Underneath The Tree	Kelly Clarkson	947
78	I Wrote The Book	Morgan Wallen	945
79	Eyes Closed	Ed Sheeran	942
80	Blind	SZA	933
81	Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow	Dean Martin	896
82	It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas	Perry Como And The Fontane Sisters With Mitchell Ayres And His Orchestra	870
83	Son Of A Sinner	Jelly Roll	870
84	Everything I Love	Morgan Wallen	863
85	Star Walkin' (League Of Legends Worlds Anthem)	Lil Nas X	841
86	Major Distribution	Drake & 21 Savage	829
87	On BS	Drake & 21 Savage	827
88	Santa Tell Me	Ariana Grande	823
89	Wasted On You	Morgan Wallen	814
90	Ella Baila Sola	Eslabon Armado X Peso Pluma	802
91	Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)	Darlene Love	767
92	No Se Va	Grupo Frontera	760
93	Love Language	SZA	755
94	White Christmas	Bing Crosby	742
95	Deck The Halls	Nat King Cole	736
96	Love Again	The Kid LAROI	735
97	Too Many Nights	Metro Boomin ft. Don Toliver & Future	715
98	Hold Me Closer	Elton John & Britney Spears	712
99	Nonsense	Sabrina Carpenter	698
100	Jingle Bells	Frank Sinatra	690

I don't think for an instant Jimin will be in the top ten of the year. He'll probably lose 40% or so of his first week points on the next chart and then we'll get a better sense of where it will end up.

And I genuinely believe the first 3 are going to be pretty close to accurate, that Flowers and Anti-Hero will end up ahead of Kill Bill. We'll see.

[rnb]

praying that low sneaks on in the end!

[plankton5165]

Apr 5, 2023 17:17:07 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

And now projection of where I think songs will end up at the year end.  Someone (plankton5165 who needs to learn how not to quote entire long posts) was asking how I come up with this list.

Sorry about the long post quoting, but is it really that big of a deal? And I wanted to specify what I was looking for.

Apr 5, 2023 17:17:07 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

It's basically an educated guess. I assume all song will lose 5% of their points from the previous week each week until they fall below #50 on the chart. It's obviously not precise. Songs falling out of the #1 spot by even a single point lose much more. And of course some songs will go up the chart. But it's a first approximation, and opens eyes to where the year-end might might be heading.

I might actually have a preposition for the decade-end. Multiply each song's current rank by 1.25 each week until they fall below #50 (unless it's yet to spend 20 weeks on the chart, I'm thinking), and round each number you get to the nearest whole. These are the ranks the songs will get estimated points for coming in at.

So, for Like Crazy, you'd come up with 1.25 next week, and 1.5625 the week after that. You'd round the 1.25 to 1, but the 1.5625 to 2. So that would give Like Crazy another week at #1. That isn't necessarily going to happen, but it's like what you've been doing here.

What do you think of that?

[plankton5165]

I dunno, I think of x1.25 as the normal pace that a song goes down.

When a song moves down the chart, do they normally lose on average 5% of year-end points each week?

[plankton5165]

You know what? I've gone to a conclusion that I think the multiplier you should use is 1.2.

And also keep multiplying the numbers until the songs would be out of the chart, and round the numbers to the nearest wholes. These would be their projected ranks, how many points would they get?

[Music Fan]

Still optimistic that Shakira & Bizarrap can make the year end H100 ... but I know that its chances are getting lower and lower.

[xtynaaguilera99]

I’m doing the January/December YE count.

This is Week 13/52. Only counting songs that have reached the cutoff:

1. Miley Cyrus - Flowers - 396.581
2. SZA - Kill Bill - 362.275
3. The Weeknd & Ariana Grande - Die For You - 273.510
4. Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage - Creepin - 272.223
5. Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero - 244.780
6. Sam Smith & Kim Petras - Unholy - 227.686
7. Morgan Wallen - Last Night - 217.484
8. David Guetta & Bebe Rexha - I’m Good (Blue) - 205.696
9. Harry Styles - As It Was - 181.180
10. Drake & 21 Savage - Rich Flex - 175.844
-
11. Beyoncé - CUFF IT - 172.851
12. Lil Uzi Vert - Just Wanna Rock - 167.615
13. PinkPantheress & Ice Spice - Boy’s a liar, Pt. 2 - 163.708
14. Morgan Wallen - You Proof - 162.112
15. Chris Brown - Under The Influence - 161.427
16. Morgan Wallen - Thought You Should Know - 159.984
17. Bailey Zimmerman - Rock and a Hard Place - 159.465
18. Rema & Selena Gomez - Calm Down - 152.948
19. Kane Brown & Katelyn Brown - Thank God - 150.808
20. Zach Bryan - Something In The Orange (Z&S’ Version) - 144.854
-
21. JVKE - golden hour - 139.001
22. Taylor Swift - Lavender Haze - 137.532
23. RAYE & 070 Shake - Escapism. - 136.132
24. Coi Leray - Players - 132.753
25. Metro Boomin, Future & Chris Brown - Superhero (Heroes & Villains) - 129.904
26. Stephen Sanchez - Until I Found You - 125.632
27. Meghan Trainor - Made You Look - 120.957
28. SZA - Shirt - 120.015
29. Lainey Wilson - Heart Like A Truck - 118.007
30. Miguel - Sure Thing - 115.743

[nathanalbright]

Do we think that there is going to be a slowdown of songs that clinch for the YE coming up soon? Sure Thing isn't far off and other than Bebe Dame and the Bizzrap f/Shakira, what is likely going to be close enough to clinch in the next few weeks?

[PositivityMaster48]

Week 22!

Also a nice surprise as per usual..