HITS 9/15: Olivia 302k. V 108k. Childers 38k.

[85la]

Sept 12, 2023 18:12:11 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Sept 12, 2023 17:12:04 GMT -5 85la said:

Not too many besides Taylor (by a large margin though), but, how does that refute my point or preclude her from beating that number this time? You could also argue that because she was able to debut so highly with her debut alone, and since she maintained that level of hype and stardom for the entire era, it would be especially expected that she could easily beat that number with her sophomore effort by at least a little bit, especially when that debut number wasn't at all too gargantuan or insurmountable to begin with. Regardless of many of the other artists' debuts you mentioned not smashing immediately, many of their sophomore sets were easily able to open with comparatively much higher numbers (Taylor with 600k and both Gaga and Britney with 1 mil+ no less). I wouldn't have expected Olivia to open with anywhere near 1 million, but 350-400k+ in 2023 isn't at all unreasonable or outlandish.

1. You said 295k isn’t that high of a number… but can only name 1 other female artist capable of doing that number currently. Clearly it is a high number today.

2. Why are you comparing raw openings artists pulled in the years 2000 and 2011? Clearly you are treading into delusional territory to pull up the numbers Britney did. We are in 2023. Find a recent sophomore effort that pulled similar opening numbers.

3. It was already mentioned streaming wise, Sour *did* pull absolutely huge opening numbers. It broke various female streaming records. So yes, it was an extremely hard benchmark set to surpass when your debut’s opening was already record breaking numbers.

Just because the number is high, does that mean it is unbeatable? And as mentioned, SZA's SOS is a recent example. And the fact that GUTS's first week includes Vinyl and SOUR's didn't only strengthens my argument (I don't believe SOS's first week included vinyl either.

And no, it's not "delusional" to bring up numbers from 2000 and 2011 (when you were clearly referencing artists and albums from that same time period yourself), and hence why I clearly said I WOULDN'T HAVE EXPECTED HER TO DEBEUT ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THOSE NUMBERS. I was just using that as an example to point out that other artists were clearly able to open much higher with their sophomore sets relative to their debuts. 350-400k is just a fraction of the 1.1-1.3 million that Gaga and Brit opened with with their sophomores, and just a 15-25% increase on her debut.

It's not like many disagree with me. Virtually everyone in the Predictors Cup Thread predicted she would open higher than her debut with her sophomore set. Also keep in mind, nowhere am I saying that it's a flop or that it has failed by and large to live up to her debut (that can only be gauged in the coming weeks and months), it's just that it's not at all unreasonable to have expected it to open a little higher.

[iHype.]

Sept 12, 2023 18:47:48 GMT -5 85la said:

Sept 12, 2023 18:12:11 GMT -5 iHype. said:

1. You said 295k isn’t that high of a number… but can only name 1 other female artist capable of doing that number currently. Clearly it is a high number today.

2. Why are you comparing raw openings artists pulled in the years 2000 and 2011? Clearly you are treading into delusional territory to pull up the numbers Britney did. We are in 2023. Find a recent sophomore effort that pulled similar opening numbers.

3. It was already mentioned streaming wise, Sour *did* pull absolutely huge opening numbers. It broke various female streaming records. So yes, it was an extremely hard benchmark set to surpass when your debut’s opening was already record breaking numbers.

Just because the number is high, does that mean it is unbeatable?

And no, it's not "delusional" to bring up numbers from 2000 and 2011 (when you were clearly referencing artists and albums from that same time period yourself)

I referenced in general a debut era starts with small first week numbers, I didn’t quote any actual numbers done decades ago and compare them to her first week.

And you bringing them up… ties to my original point. Britney & Gaga’s debut albums pulled small first week numbers. They reached higher sales weeks months afterwards. Ofcourse it was then easy for their sophomore albums to blow their predecessors out the water first week.

Sour immediately broke female streaming records first week. It is an uphill battle when you have to surpass numbers that were already record breaking to begin with. The Fame & Baby One More Time did not do record breaking numbers first week.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Sept 12, 2023 18:25:30 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

^Don't forget SZA's 318k for SOS.

and she did that with 23 songs. I'm not diminishing SZA's success because the album is obviously one of the biggest this year, only think Olivia would probably clear 350k with 20+ songs. In the streaming era, the number of songs plays a big role and people often forget about it.

[Choco]

OK for Olivia. More pure sales fueled this time around means worse legs usually so... we'll see. Reminds me a bit of Happier than Ever (a win but still a moderate decrease), although this is matching numbers while HTE opened lower right out of the gate.

[Caviar]

Sept 12, 2023 22:50:23 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Sept 12, 2023 18:25:30 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

^Don't forget SZA's 318k for SOS.

and she did that with 23 songs. I'm not diminishing SZA's success because the album is obviously one of the biggest this year, only think Olivia would probably clear 350k with 20+ songs. In the streaming era, the number of songs plays a big role and people often forget about it.

Further, SZA didn’t have any physicals out either during release making this comparison even less valid. She could’ve easily cleared over 400-450k first week.

[strongerq]

hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming

LW	TW	Artist	Title	Label	Total	Change	Albums	TEA	SEA
--	1	OLIVIA RODRIGO	GUTS	GEFFEN (UMG)	302,791	--	148,085	1,235	153,470
--	2	V	LAYOVER	BIGHIT/GEFFEN (UMG)	105,522	--	92,810	3,334	9,377
1	3	ZACH BRYAN	ZACH BRYAN	WARNER (WMG)	97,183	-11%	2,559	1,120	93,504
2	4	MORGAN WALLEN	ONE THING AT A TIME	BIG LOUD/MERCURY/REPUBLIC (UMG)	77,043	-9%	2,140	1,068	73,836
3	5	TRAVIS SCOTT	UTOPIA	CACTUS JACK/EPIC (SME)	56,667	-17%	2,098	136	54,433
6	6	SZA	SOS	TDE/RCA (SME)	44,712	2%	3,835	226	40,652
5	7	TAYLOR SWIFT	MIDNIGHTS	REPUBLIC (UMG)	41,592	-6%	7,640	440	33,511
9	8	PESO PLUMA	GENESIS	DOUBLE P/PRAJIN PARLAY (THE ORCHARD)	41,276	1%	76	141	41,059
8	9	BARBIE	SOUNDTRACK	ATLANTIC (WMG)	40,918	0%	5,253	1,008	34,657
--	10	TYLER CHILDERS	RUSTIN' IN THE RAIN	HICKMAN HOLLER/RCA (SME)	38,573	--	24,367	345	13,861
10	11	MORGAN WALLEN	DANGEROUS: THE DOUBLE ALBUM	BIG LOUD/MERCURY/REPUBLIC (UMG)	37,957	-3%	406	299	37,251
7	12	TAYLOR SWIFT	LOVER	REPUBLIC (UMG)	37,436	-10%	4,684	592	32,159
11	13	TAYLOR SWIFT	SPEAK NOW (TAYLOR'S VERSION)	REPUBLIC (UMG)	33,849	-4%	9,581	200	24,069
13	14	ZACH BRYAN	AMERICAN HEARTBREAK	WARNER (WMG)	32,269	2%	1,817	422	30,031
12	15	TAYLOR SWIFT	FOLKLORE	REPUBLIC (UMG)	31,253	-4%	5,435	227	25,591
35	16	OLIVIA RODRIGO	SOUR	GEFFEN (UMG)	27,822	62%	8,279	187	19,356
16	17	NOAH KAHAN	STICK SEASON	MERCURY/REPUBLIC (UMG)	26,716	-2%	1,353	269	25,094
15	18	KAROL G	MANANA SERA BONITO (BICHOTA SEASON)	BICHOTA/INTERSCOPE (UMG)	26,043	-8%	433	179	25,430
14	19	TAYLOR SWIFT	1989	BIG MACHINE/BMLG (UMG)	25,712	-11%	1,247	262	24,202
--	20	LAUFEY	BEWITCHED	LAUFEY (THE ORCHARD)	23,831	--	7,201	59	16,571
17	21	TAYLOR SWIFT	REPUTATION	BIG MACHINE/BMLG (UMG)	23,723	-6%	926	216	22,581
18	22	BAILEY ZIMMERMAN	RELIGIOUSLY. THE ALBUM.	WARNER NASHVILLE (WMG)	23,479	0%	525	334	22,620
22	23	THE WEEKND	THE HIGHLIGHTS	XO/REPUBLIC (UMG)	23,304	4%	254	170	22,880
19	24	BAD BUNNY	UN VERANO SIN TI	RIMAS (THE ORCHARD)	23,193	-1%	159	79	22,955
25	25	DRAKE & 21 SAVAGE	HER LOSS	OVO/REPUBLIC (UMG)	22,483	9%	127	49	22,307
20	26	LUKE COMBS	GETTIN' OLD	RIVER HOUSE/COLUMBIA NASHVILLE (SME)	22,052	-6%	882	583	20,587
24	27	GUNNA	A GIFT & A CURSE	YOUNG STONER LIFE/ATLANTIC (WMG)	21,718	2%	37	117	21,563
23	28	KAROL G	MANANA SERA BONITO	UMLE (UMG)	21,435	0%	804	125	20,506
21	29	TAYLOR SWIFT	RED (TAYLOR'S VERSION)	REPUBLIC (UMG)	21,313	-6%	4,176	193	16,944
28	30	METRO BOOMIN	HEROES & VILLAINS	BOOMINATI/REPUBLIC (UMG)	20,503	5%	331	78	20,093
30	31	DRAKE	CERTIFIED LOVER BOY	OVO/REPUBLIC (UMG)	19,703	5%	20	36	19,647
27	32	POST MALONE	AUSTIN	MERCURY/REPUBLIC (UMG)	18,114	-8%	1,264	148	16,703
26	33	BEYONCE	RENAISSANCE	PARKWOOD/COLUMBIA (SME)	17,994	-11%	1,457	166	16,371
38	34	DRAKE	TAKE CARE	YMCMB/REPUBLIC (UMG)	17,898	7%	91	34	17,773
33	35	FLEETWOOD MAC	RUMOURS	WARNER (WMG)	17,232	-1%	2,890	468	13,874
29	36	MILEY CYRUS	ENDLESS SUMMER VACATION	COLUMBIA (SME)	17,202	-11%	1,149	775	15,277
41	37	THE WEEKND	STARBOY	XO/REPUBLIC (UMG)	17,160	6%	634	56	16,470
32	38	TAYLOR SWIFT	EVERMORE	REPUBLIC (UMG)	17,016	-4%	3,084	89	13,843
43	39	LIL BABY	MY TURN	QUALITY CONTROL/MOTOWN (UMG)	16,979	7%	29	23	16,927
31	40	NEWJEANS	2ND EP GET UP	ADOR/HYBE/GEFFEN (UMG)	16,788	-7%	7,720	47	9,021
39	41	JELLY ROLL	WHITSITT CHAPEL	BROKEN BOW (BMG)	16,710	0%	2,948	705	13,057
36	42	ELTON JOHN	DIAMONDS	ISLAND (UMG)	16,454	-3%	579	403	15,472
42	43	POST MALONE	HOLLYWOOD'S BLEEDING	REPUBLIC (UMG)	16,403	2%	412	115	15,877
37	44	LUKE COMBS	THIS ONE'S FOR YOU	RIVER HOUSE/COLUMBIA NASHVILLE (SME)	16,163	-4%	375	125	15,663
49	45	EMINEM	CURTAIN CALL	SHADY/AFTERMATH/INTERSCOPE (UMG)	15,770	4%	414	235	15,121
--	46	LANA DEL REY	BORN TO DIE	INTERSCOPE (UMG)	15,748	--	2,812	109	12,828
50	47	DRAKE	SCORPION	YMCMB/REPUBLIC (UMG)	15,429	4%	78	49	15,301
40	48	MORGAN WALLEN	IF I KNOW ME	BIG LOUD (STEM)	15,184	-8%	447	145	14,592
44	49	LIL UZI VERT	PINK TAPE	GENERATION NOW/ATLANTIC (WMG)	15,153	-3%	50	54	15,049
--	50	GRUPO FRONTERA	EL COMIENZO	GRUPO FRONTERA (BELIEVE)	15,135	--	25	94	15,016

[renfield75]

I hope Tyler gets that top ten spot on Billboard.

[larrydmusic]

Incredible numbers for Olivia! She had an outstanding first week in America.

So far Guts hit #1 in Australia, Netherlands, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Sweden and the UK. It is also #3 in Italy and #5 in France, two countries where local Italian and French artists usually dominate the charts and it is incredibly difficult for American music to chart in the upper echelons. More countries to come as local charts get updated. 

[Night Senses]

Zach only decreased 11% in his second week? Big W.

[Enigma.]

Sept 16, 2023 10:26:17 GMT -5 Night Senses said:

Zach only decreased 11% in his second week? Big W.

Third

[Night Senses]

Sept 16, 2023 10:33:11 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Sept 16, 2023 10:26:17 GMT -5 Night Senses said:

Zach only decreased 11% in his second week? Big W.

Third

Thanks. Still great. Legs.