HITS 4/26: #1 Taylor Swift 2.6M/1.92M pure, #5 Pearl Jam 60k

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

TAY’S FORTHCOMING DEBUT: WE ARE TORTURED BY SPECULATION

Wednesday, April 17, 2024

As we’ve been endlessly reminding you, Taylor Swift’s new album, THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT, is going to be big. Very big. Enormously big. Perhaps even frighteningly big.

But how big? Industry handicappers are fraying the beads on their abacuses estimating the Republic set’s likely first week. Is it a lock to hit 1 million, 1.25m, 1.5m or more? Some insiders—who know their data—are speculating about blockbuster opening numbers that we’re not even ready to share with you.

Let’s take a look at first-week and ATD totals for the last four Taylor releases (see below). And while we're doing so, let’s bear in mind that she has only gotten much, much bigger in terms of pop-cultural reach in the last year. The Eras Tour (the biggest ever, likely wrapping with $1.6b), the Eras Tour movie (now streaming on demand), the 1989 (Taylor’s Version) drop and La Swift's Travis-assisted profile in the sports world have injected nitro into what was already the hottest, fastest engine in the marketplace. TORTURED POETS is Tay's first album of entirely new material since 2022's Midnights, so that comp should be particularly illuminating.

Swift currently boasts 283m Instagram followers, by the way, so if 1% of those peeps buy a copy of her record in its first week, she will pass the 2m mark. Just sayin’. She also has 99m monthly listeners on Spotify.

[Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...]

“We Some insiders—who know their data—are speculating about blockbuster opening numbers that we’re not even ready to share with you.”
Then why even write this article…the drama


Unless this opens on par with Adele’s 25 then this headline isn’t needed.

[eagle27]

I think 2m is extremely likely with how strong the pure sales will be and how culturally omnipresent she became after selling 1.6m. 3m is nearly impossible in 2024 but if the album really overperforms her team will work hard to break the Adele record.

[clsvltn]

I don't think Taylor and impossible go in the same sentence

[Choco]

Don't hate me but I think a slight drop from 1989 TV might happen. At some point this Eras Tour amazeballs era is gonna start to slightly slow down and I feel like she's very much near that overexposure line.

Still gonna open above 1.3m easily I think.

[Forever Winter]

This will definitely be her biggest debut ever. Even a blind man can see it coming.

I think 1.8M

[85la]

Apr 18, 2024 10:55:18 GMT -5 Choco said:

Don't hate me but I think a slight drop from 1989 TV might happen. At some point this Eras Tour amazeballs era is gonna start to slightly slow down and I feel like she's very much near that overexposure line.

Still gonna open above 1.3m easily I think.

I agree this could very well happen. Overexposure and/or an eventual decline happens to every single artist on planet earth. It happened to Elvis, it happened to Madonna, it happened to Michael Jackson (before he died), and it most certainly will happen to Taylor Swift some day. Of course the size and timing of the decline will vary. Now might seem far too soon, and over the past year or so she's been on a marked upswing and she's the most famous and successful she's ever been, and given that this is her first new studio album since then, it bodes well for it being her biggest opener ever, but oftentimes declines can come sudden and drastically, and the fact that she is very probably overexposed now could hinder her as well (I do think if they waited till later this year or next this overexposure could be avoided. Releasing her next studio set when she's already released two other TVs in less than a year might be too much).

Balancing the two factors above out, I think a reasonable range to expect would be 1.3-1.8 million (2.5 million+ seems out of the question and below 1.3 million would probably be a bit of a disappointment, for her).

[WolfSpear]

Maybe in the 1.6-2 million ballpark? Rooting for the latter but that’s some rare territory.

[thatpolishboy]

I'm under the impression that the goal is to break Adeles record. Every time she releases there is always talk of how she's the biggest debut 'since' 25.

3.5m seems obsurd but with all the promo they are doing for pre-orders it wouldn't surprise me. It's either now or never.

[Eloqueen™]

I think there's no realistic chance she's gonna hit 3.5 milli, that in itself with Adele was a once in a lifetime thing. I agree with some in that overexposure is coming and I've seen a lot more pushback online against her recently (same miserable souls who do it with every super successful artist). With all that said, I don't think the hit is going to show in the first week. I think it's going to reflect in the album's total. I think we're gonna see a dip from Midnights overall performance definitely, especially considering the album has no obvious, immediate radio hits like "Anti-Hero". With that said I still see this opening huge (1.8milli maybe) and I'm happy as the album is amazing.

[eagle27]

Can’t picture this doing less than a re-recording. 1989TV is an outlier but people will always be tuned in more for a new album. Honestly I would be more shocked if it’s under 1.8m than over 2.5m. Likely around 2.2m.

[ampersand]

I think they are aiming for 2m first week, but I just can't see it passing 25's first week. Maybe the next album if she takes an extended break.

[Choco]

Her biggest opening yet is a rerecording so saying it can't open below a rerecording is setting expectations too high. It may very well happen but lbr even if it opens below 1989 TV it's not suddenly a flop.

[HolidayGuy]

Yah, never underestimate the power of Swift and the Swifties.

On a related matter, she really hasn't had a lengthy break from releasing music, has she? Whether all-new, re-recordings with newly available material, etc. Even though she's not giving the public much of a chance to mss her, she still commands mass dedication when it comes to her releases.

[chartfreak]

Will not be surprised if this hits 2 million or more.

[avamaxstan]

Anyone who thinks this is doing under 2M is fooling themselves. It could already be there in preorders alone.

[Choco]

Well now that a 31 travk version has dropped, yeah, career best numbers incoming.

[ificanthaveyou]

Apr 18, 2024 20:53:34 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Yah, never underestimate the power of Swift and the Swifties.

On a related matter, she really hasn't had a lengthy break from releasing music, has she? Whether all-new, re-recordings with newly available material, etc. Even though she's not giving the public much of a chance to mss her, she still commands mass dedication when it comes to her releases.

Sometimes going on a hiatus actually hurts an artist though. I think regularly releasing music keeps fans coming back for more, instead of having them venture off and exploring other artists/fanbases.

[jodakyellow]

Apr 18, 2024 20:53:34 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Yah, never underestimate the power of Swift and the Swifties.

On a related matter, she really hasn't had a lengthy break from releasing music, has she? Whether all-new, re-recordings with newly available material, etc. Even though she's not giving the public much of a chance to mss her, she still commands mass dedication when it comes to her releases.

The longest gap between albums was from 1989 to Reputation, with 3 years. There were a couple of one-off soundtrack songs in there, but that’s the one period that’s felt like a break in these 17.5 years

[fridayteenage]

Apr 19, 2024 1:38:56 GMT -5 ificanthaveyou said:

Apr 18, 2024 20:53:34 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Yah, never underestimate the power of Swift and the Swifties.

On a related matter, she really hasn't had a lengthy break from releasing music, has she? Whether all-new, re-recordings with newly available material, etc. Even though she's not giving the public much of a chance to mss her, she still commands mass dedication when it comes to her releases.

Sometimes going on a hiatus actually hurts an artist though. I think regularly releasing music keeps fans coming back for more, instead of having them venture off and exploring other artists/fanbases.

25: 3.4 mil
30: 0.7 mil

[suburbandreams]

Apr 19, 2024 1:38:56 GMT -5 ificanthaveyou said:

Apr 18, 2024 20:53:34 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Yah, never underestimate the power of Swift and the Swifties.

On a related matter, she really hasn't had a lengthy break from releasing music, has she? Whether all-new, re-recordings with newly available material, etc. Even though she's not giving the public much of a chance to mss her, she still commands mass dedication when it comes to her releases.

Sometimes going on a hiatus actually hurts an artist though. I think regularly releasing music keeps fans coming back for more, instead of having them venture off and exploring other artists/fanbases.

Agreed. There needs to be some spacing to allow each project to stick.

Also, if the act is dependent on radio , they need to wait for their old tracks to follow off + 1-3 months more.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

TORTURED POETS UNITE: TAYLOR IS HERE

Thursday, April 18, 2024

here’s huge, massive and then there’s Swift-sized. By every metric, Taylor Swift is in a league of her own. At press time, the Republic megastar delivered her 11th studio album THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT. Listen here.

It’s the first completely new project from Swift since 2022’s Midnights, which broke nearly every sales and streaming record in its release week. Swift then upped the ante with 1989 (Taylor’s Version), the updated version of her best-selling album.

Both LPs moved north of 1.5m units in their opening weeks. The expectation for TTPD ranges from 1-2m, according to music biz analysts. But is there any possibility that Swift, who’s successfully dominated recorded music, the live sector, the box office and the NFL over the last year and half, will not meet expectations? Would you bet against her? “Take the over” seems to be the near-unanimous response to a Swift projection.

For all of the hype surrounding “super-fans” and how to tap into that audience, one need only study Taylor Swift’s entire career. Her current standing in pop culture matches any star in any, um, era. Her mere presence at an event commands the spotlight and provokes chatter throughout the mediascape.

Judging by the line at Spotify’s TTPD library pop-up at The Grove, where fans waited upwards of four hours just to get their own footage of the Swift-approved installation, there’s nothing like Taylormania. Swifties in Chicago watched artists paint a QR code on the side of a building for hours—they literally watched paint dry awaiting an Easter egg from their idol.

Swift confirmed that “Fortnight,” f/Post Malone will be the first official single from TTPD. She tapped Grammy-winning collaborators Aaron Dessner and Jack Antonoff once again to produce the set.

We’ll be tracking sales and streams all week, which is sure to set records in every way imaginable. But before our minds are blown by first week numbers, Tay is making sure the world will be focused on what made Taylor Swift the acclaimed recording artist that she is: her pen.

Read what Swift had to say upon album drop below.

[BlueSwan]

31 songs of Taylor Swift doing very Taylor Swifty songs is just WAY overkill at this point. I don't understand why her management didn't warn of oversaturation. Obviously this opening is gonna be humungously massive, but I have a feeling that this right here is the breaking point. I like Taylor Swift very much, but she does tend to write very similar sounding melodies over the same 4-chord progressions she's used a billion times already and the sheer amount of material she has put out since the "career relaunch" of Folklore/Evermore is just stupefying. I honestly hope that I am wrong, but I get the same feeling I got with Lady Gaga during the Born This Way era. 2024 could likely be the year that the second wave Taylor backlash begins (if we regard the Reputation/Lover era as the first wave backlash).

[Rhythm Nation]

Your faves would kill to have an era perform like one of Taylor’s supposed backlashes

[BlueSwan]

Apr 19, 2024 6:53:40 GMT -5 Rhythm Nation said:

Your faves would kill to have an era perform like one of Taylor’s supposed backlashes

That's undeniably true.

[bluepoet]

Well apparently it did 20m+ on Apple Music within the first 2 hours of release. Fortnight debuted at no.1 on Apple Music too. First female song to ever do it. Lavender haze on Midnights only reached #4. 

[HolidayGuy]

fridayt- 30's first--week number were 839,000, but, yeah, quite a dip. However, the numbers for 25 were an anomaly- nothing has approached that number since, and streaming was in its relative infancy (the album also was not available to listen in full on streaming services until months later).

The numbers for Swift's album undoubtedly will be super-high again- whether it can approach 3m, we will see.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

This is probably a test for Taylor. If she can pull 2,5M-3M with TTPD, I guess she'll know exactly what to do and will try even harder with the next album (probably 30+ songs again but much shorter and better promo).

[imbuemyblue]

At this point 2 million is the floor and a squeak above Adele is the ceiling (still only like a 5% chance IMO). I will be most curious if she can break Drake's surprisingly longstanding streaming record. With 31 tracks I would say that is also on the table now.

[avamaxstan]

Apr 19, 2024 6:46:29 GMT -5 BlueSwan said:

31 songs of Taylor Swift doing very Taylor Swifty songs is just WAY overkill at this point. I don't understand why her management didn't warn of oversaturation. Obviously this opening is gonna be humungously massive, but I have a feeling that this right here is the breaking point. I like Taylor Swift very much, but she does tend to write very similar sounding melodies over the same 4-chord progressions she's used a billion times already and the sheer amount of material she has put out since the "career relaunch" of Folklore/Evermore is just stupefying. I honestly hope that I am wrong, but I get the same feeling I got with Lady Gaga during the Born This Way era. 2024 could likely be the year that the second wave Taylor backlash begins (if we regard the Reputation/Lover era as the first wave backlash).

Yall have literally been saying this for over a decade and she just keeps getting bigger.