HITS 6/21: TTPD #1; $uicideboy$, Combs, Nayeon, Tolliver T10

[seak05]

Jun 19, 2024 11:56:16 GMT -5 85la said:

All this arguing and petty bickering back and forth when clearly basic research wasn't done. Whitney actually holds the record for female album with the most weeks at #1 from debut, with 11. It seemed to debut at #1 during one of those brief times when rules allowed it before the Soundscan era began. Also, this was nearly forty years ago, so attemps to compare it to TTPD by saying it didn't open with 350k+ units (which we actually don't know, it could of) or that it didn't move 5 million copies in a year (again which we actually don't know; it went 5x platinum a little after a year of release, so it definitely came close to that) are pretty useless, because different metrics existed then and numbers overall were probably a bit lower.

Whitney was obviously a very successful blockbuster album that spurned off huge hits a year after release. TTPD has had a phenomenal first two months, but we'll still have to see how it stacks up long term in her discography. It could very well turn out to be like The Backstreet Boys' Black & Blue situation, which had their highest debut with record-breaking numbers opening week, and went 8x platinum in a mere month, but not much to show in terms of singles performance and long term succes after that.

in that sense I think they’re very different albums. Im not even sure Taylor is planning to release a second single from ttpd, it feels very much like an album to me, but not really singles (or anything intended for radio consumption). And variants aside, she’s done almost no promo.

[clsvltn]

I think some people need a ban here lol

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Either that or hopefully they will ragequit in time.

[👑 Eloquent ™]

Jun 19, 2024 7:26:17 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Meanwhile, am I correct to assume Billie's album is actually the best streamed in terms of average stream per song, and Swift's is just ahead because it has 3x the tracks? Or is Swift's album also streaming better song for song?

Your bitterness is showing through your post. What in the world does this have to do with my original post? It had nothing to do with Taylor vs Billie or their comparative streams. And resulting to a metric no one references to try and make a moot point is comical.


And I have to also laugh at the notion of Billie "getting her revenge" with award season as if Billie has any bearing on that what so ever. Taylor was never winning AOTY two years in a row no matter what she released and has already taken home the award a whopping 4 times. She's in no contest with Billie. They're not even on the same level whatsoever. Furthermore, Billie is no victim. 😂

[fridayteenage]

female albums with multiple top 10 debuts on the hot 100 this decade:
eternal sunshine 227k debut
cowboy carter 407k
tortured poets 2610k

sos 318k
guts 302k
1989 tv 1653k

midnights 1578k
positions 174k
sour 295k
happier than ever 238k

chromatica 274k
folklore 846k

If sabrina does do "less than 80k," it'd be a surprise.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Jun 19, 2024 9:51:41 GMT -5 theycallmedualian said:

Jun 19, 2024 1:35:26 GMT -5 andrebra said:

Please Please Please isn’t about to go number 1 because of being viral or anything other than the fact that people are VERY interested in Sabrina as an artist right now. Barring the album being significantly worse than the singles (like Miley’s situation), she will be debuting north of 100k - bookmark me.

bookmarked you for sure. 99% of the time a big single never translates into album numbers. especially when its due to gimmicks like TTH or autoplay. sabrina is not getting anywhere past 80k SEAs, probably less than 80k total 

You know that 90M streams (which PPP and Espresso had last week) is equivalent to around 70k SEAs? Not saying those two will be that huge in 2 months, but now imagine like 10-12 songs more, plus digital and physical copies (she has a really solid fanbase), and a huge promo and hype. Her album will easily beat Dua's and Charlie's numbers.

[Envoirment]

Jun 19, 2024 10:38:36 GMT -5 theycallmedualian said:

Jun 19, 2024 7:26:17 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

How is it a record when she's released like 40 versions of the album? They're not the same album. I don't see how that can be a true record when the album that has the current record was literally 1 album; Whitney had no other editions and the same actual album all 8 weeks. The queen stays queen.

1. did whitney's album faced a new release over opening at like 350k? no
2. did whitney's album even opened up with 350k? probably no lmao
3. did whitney's album get the year end #1? likely no
4. did whitney's album get the global #1 album? most definitely no
5. did whitney's album get #1 at 28 countries? no
6. did whitney's album sold 5M copies first week globally? no
7. did whitney's album sold 5M in 1 year in the US? probably no

1. I'm pretty sure most albums in the 1980s were debuting with big numbers so probably a lot of people debuting at #2 doing bigger numbers than most of those that challenge Taylor so far.

2. It was certified 2x platinum within 8 weeks which means she averaged ~250k sales/week. I'm willing to bet Whitney actually debuted higher than 350k. Although shame we don't have the exact figures.

3. Sadly due to being released in June she ended up being between year-end charts.

4. Most definitely yes? What are you speaking about. Please get rid of your bias.

5. There weren't even 28 country charts back in 1987 but she debuted at #1 in all the charts that were around back then.

6. Probably not I'll give you that.

7. The album was certified 5x platinum in November of that year, so she actually she probably did!

I realise people are being pedantic about Taylor's record and such but please don't try and tarnish what Whitney achieved with Whitney. She did so many 1sts with that album for women in the charts back then.

[👑 Eloquent ™]

I don't even understand the insinuation that variants somehow invalidate an album's success anyway, as every other person's fav could release 3,000 variants and still wouldn't produce the numbers Taylor does so... It's a moot point at best. And the same folks insinuating variants somehow dismisses or "cheapens" an album's success would probably be the same people who'd use certs to boast about their fav. Certs that literally can artificially pad an album's figures by millions of copies "sold" in some cases. Lots of cognitive dissonance going on. lol

[suburbandreams]

In the streaming age, albums have much more longevity than during cd era.

They open lower but their later weeks have higher numbers since streams are much less frontloaded than sales

They are entirely different sales environments which distorts things.

What makes Taylor so unusual is how far ahead she is from her fellow peers in sales and also streams.

In 1987, there was multiple diamond albums. In contrast, Taylor is moving at least 3 times has many units as her competitors.

(sidenote soundscan was not implentated until 1991. charts before that are highly unreliable because they were just based off surveys of a select group of stores. when soundscan was rolled out, the comparison between billboard's old charts and the new soundscan ones showed that the old method was biased in favor of pop and against country , rap , metal etc.)

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Jun 19, 2024 16:44:39 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

If sabrina does do "less than 80k," it'd be a surprise.

Agreed. While I wouldn't expect Please Please Please and Espresso to have the 88.7 million streams they had last week with whatever boost they get when her new album gets released, to put in context, that's worth at least 65k equivalent albums.

[Mayman]

I was thinking about the potential of other artists being able to grab a million+ week. I think the only one that could do it is Travis Scott. He's been able to get a fanbase who will buy just about anything. He kind of was the leader of that short-lived bundles era which I feel like was the old version of our current variant dilemma.

I remember seeing somewhere Travis would've done 750k with Utopia if all of the physicals shipped out on time during the first week. I guess there was a delay in getting cds/vinyl/box sets out to fans? Not sure if that's true (I got my box set first week). He had five different cd/vinyl options with different covers/colors to each. He also had I think 10 box sets: 5 cd + clothing item, 5 vinyl + clothing item.

I think if he has a similar amount of hype going into his next album he could maybe get close? Maybe more box sets, some sort of gimmick with the vinyl, and a lot of signed physicals? A longer pre-order time too? I think Utopia had 2-3 weeks of preorders before release.

He also did 100k in the following post-debut weeks with heavily discounted $5 vinyls sold. Could we see artists heavily discounting physicals first week like this in the future?

As for other artists, none of them have the fanbase like Travis to even get close. I think Adele is no longer in contention, I can only see her going downhill after 30. Drake hasn't been big at all with physicals since maybe NWTS. Let's remember the Views 1 million debut was heavily influenced by its exclusivity to Apple and iTunes. Beyonce seems to cap around 300-400k, although she could do more if her physicals were widely available.

What do you all think?

[suburbandreams]

Jun 19, 2024 23:14:09 GMT -5 Mayman said:

I was thinking about the potential of other artists being able to grab a million+ week. I think the only one that could do it is Travis Scott. He's been able to get a fanbase who will buy just about anything. He kind of was the leader of that short-lived bundles era which I feel like was the old version of our current variant dilemma.

I remember seeing somewhere Travis would've done 750k with Utopia if all of the physicals shipped out on time during the first week. I guess there was a delay in getting cds/vinyl/box sets out to fans? Not sure if that's true (I got my box set first week). He had five different cd/vinyl options with different covers/colors to each. He also had I think 10 box sets: 5 cd + clothing item, 5 vinyl + clothing item.

I think if he has a similar amount of hype going into his next album he could maybe get close? Maybe more box sets, some sort of gimmick with the vinyl, and a lot of signed physicals? A longer pre-order time too? I think Utopia had 2-3 weeks of preorders before release.

He also did 100k in the following post-debut weeks with heavily discounted $5 vinyls sold. Could we see artists heavily discounting physicals first week like this in the future?

As for other artists, none of them have the fanbase like Travis to even get close. I think Adele is no longer in contention, I can only see her going downhill after 30. Drake hasn't been big at all with physicals since maybe NWTS. Let's remember the Views 1 million debut was heavily influenced by its exclusivity to Apple and iTunes. Beyonce seems to cap around 300-400k, although she could do more if her physicals were widely available.

What do you all think?

Travis Scott has lost alot of hype with his last album and those discounted vinyl cost his label millions.  Like them being discounted wasn't a strategy but due them overestimating demand.

Harry's last album was 500K. He definitely could improve on that number with more variants and a another smash hit.

Olivia and/or Billie are possible in several years if they keep on growing their fanbases and gp hype.  They are already good physical sellers.

I think Rihanna has a chance if she comebacks in a year or so. It would require a great prerelease single and very pretty album variants. She isn't traditionally a big seller but there is so much hype for her to comeback. 

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Naah, I don't see anyone crossing 1M besides Taylor. I think only Adele has a 'chance', but the way she releases albums, cares and promotes...don't think so. Don't know why but can't see Olivia doing more than 350k, especially with her 10-track albums. I wouldn't be surprised if Billie reaches 500k with one of her next projects, not sure she can go further than that.

[musiclife]

I see Morgan Wallen's next album challenging for 1M.

[morgan96]

Yes for sure Morgan can hit 1 ml in first week.
Garth brooks holds the biggest first week for a Country album with 1,085,000

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Jun 20, 2024 5:52:23 GMT -5 musiclife said:

I see Morgan Wallen's next album challenging for 1M.

definitely not impossible, but for a 1M debut, he needs MUCH more pure album sales, like 5x more than the previous album. The key for 1M is huge album sales, streaming can't take you there, TTPD did 900M (700k units) and that's like extremely good, Morgan won't be close even with 30+ tracks. With 36 songs, One Thing at a Time had 500M streams in its opening week, which is great, but still not enough, not even close.

[musiclife]

Jun 20, 2024 6:14:33 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Jun 20, 2024 5:52:23 GMT -5 musiclife said:

I see Morgan Wallen's next album challenging for 1M.

definitely not impossible, but for a 1M debut, he needs MUCH more pure album sales, like 5x more than the previous album. The key for 1M is huge album sales, streaming can't take you there, TTPD did 900M (700k units) and that's like extremely good, Morgan won't be close even with 30+ tracks. With 36 songs, One Thing at a Time had 500M streams in its opening week, which is great, but still not enough, not even close.

I see that he usually waits till a later date to drop vinyls.. so maybe the label is smarter this time and that plays to his advantage towards 1M. I think 750-800k is a safe bet this time though.

[imbuemyblue]

I hate the variants, too, but come on, let's not pretend these are 'fake' weeks at number one. Even the Billie week she didn't beat her with the digital variants; all she did was ship vinyls people had already bought.

That's the annoying thing with Taylor using these chart tactics, IMO: 9 times out of 10 she doesn't need them and all it did was alienate people (chronically online people, but I digress).

And as for the long tracklist, I guess we are gonna undo all of Morgan and Drake's week at the top, too? This is a far more pervasive industry tactic than the million variants.

[bornfearless2000]

Jun 20, 2024 6:04:27 GMT -5 morgan96 said:

Yes for sure Morgan can hit 1 ml in first week.
Garth brooks holds the biggest first week for a Country album with 1,085,000

Taylor’s Red debuted with 1.2 mil

[morgan96]

Jun 20, 2024 7:29:54 GMT -5 bornfearless2000 said:

Jun 20, 2024 6:04:27 GMT -5 morgan96 said:

Yes for sure Morgan can hit 1 ml in first week.
Garth brooks holds the biggest first week for a Country album with 1,085,000

Taylor’s Red debuted with 1.2 mil

But 605k in us first week.

[Taylor.]

Jun 20, 2024 8:19:02 GMT -5 morgan96 said:

Jun 20, 2024 7:29:54 GMT -5 bornfearless2000 said:

Taylor’s Red debuted with 1.2 mil

But 605k in us first week.

That was Taylor's Version, the original sold 1.2 million.

"In the United States, Red debuted at number one on the Billboard 200 with first-week sales of 1.208 million copies, surpassing Garth Brooks's Double Live (1998) as the fastest-selling country album."

[morgan96]

Ah okok
He need more pure sales for sure to surpass 1ml+

[Mayman]

Jun 20, 2024 5:23:32 GMT -5 suburbandreams said:

Jun 19, 2024 23:14:09 GMT -5 Mayman said:

I was thinking about the potential of other artists being able to grab a million+ week. I think the only one that could do it is Travis Scott. He's been able to get a fanbase who will buy just about anything. He kind of was the leader of that short-lived bundles era which I feel like was the old version of our current variant dilemma.

I remember seeing somewhere Travis would've done 750k with Utopia if all of the physicals shipped out on time during the first week. I guess there was a delay in getting cds/vinyl/box sets out to fans? Not sure if that's true (I got my box set first week). He had five different cd/vinyl options with different covers/colors to each. He also had I think 10 box sets: 5 cd + clothing item, 5 vinyl + clothing item.

I think if he has a similar amount of hype going into his next album he could maybe get close? Maybe more box sets, some sort of gimmick with the vinyl, and a lot of signed physicals? A longer pre-order time too? I think Utopia had 2-3 weeks of preorders before release.

He also did 100k in the following post-debut weeks with heavily discounted $5 vinyls sold. Could we see artists heavily discounting physicals first week like this in the future?

As for other artists, none of them have the fanbase like Travis to even get close. I think Adele is no longer in contention, I can only see her going downhill after 30. Drake hasn't been big at all with physicals since maybe NWTS. Let's remember the Views 1 million debut was heavily influenced by its exclusivity to Apple and iTunes. Beyonce seems to cap around 300-400k, although she could do more if her physicals were widely available.

What do you all think?

Travis Scott has lost alot of hype with his last album and those discounted vinyl cost his label millions.  Like them being discounted wasn't a strategy but due them overestimating demand.

Harry's last album was 500K. He definitely could improve on that number with more variants and a another smash hit.

Olivia and/or Billie are possible in several years if they keep on growing their fanbases and gp hype.  They are already good physical sellers.

I think Rihanna has a chance if she comebacks in a year or so. It would require a great prerelease single and very pretty album variants. She isn't traditionally a big seller but there is so much hype for her to comeback. 

The thing with the $5 vinyls is I agree that they likely overestimated demand, but what confuses me is that him or his label went on to repress Utopia in like 8 different color formats (for different retailers like we see with Billie, Olivia, etc) with the finalized version of the album. I wonder how well those sold cause I can't remember when they were officially released. 

I can't believe I forgot about Harry. If he played the game I could totally see him being capable of hitting that million mark. He did really well with physicals last time, if he plays the game and does different covers and stuff he could potentially do it. The only thing is I don't see him doing 20+ tracks to get a huge streaming week.

Rihanna will definitely be interesting. If she does physicals she can def get a big week. I know when her discography was released on vinyl those were big sellers. It'll be interesting because we don't know what an album debut from her in 2024 could look like.

[Mayman]

Jun 20, 2024 5:52:23 GMT -5 musiclife said:

I see Morgan Wallen's next album challenging for 1M.

I can't at all. He'd need to makeup a 400-500k difference with physicals. With 36 tracks he did 500k last time. If he does a similar amount of tracks for his next album, I could see his first week debut increasing, but not by too much. He's never been a huge physical seller so it would be hard.

That's what makes me think the SEA conversion rate is a little off. How can Taylor get a billion streams for an album in one week and it not even add up to 1 million sea units?

[clsvltn]

I think Morgan is definitely growing though. The post song probably introduced him to some new fans as well. I think he could have a shot depending also on the single, promotion, variants available, and the work he and the label put in

[Enigma.]

Peso Pluma is releasing tonight - it might do over 100k and put some pressure on Taylor.

[iHype.]

Morgan would have to sell probably over 500K+ pure sales first week to do 1 million SPS.

Dangerous has barely did 500k pure total. OTAAT has barely did 250k pure total.

He is not doing 500k pure in a week. Having Vinyls ready wouldn’t make a difference especially when he does double albums which require lots of different discs and are $50~ if not more. Having lots of physical variants wouldn’t really help either because he’s not an artist that really has a chart savvy fanbase or ones who are willing to buy the same version multiple times just because.

[👑 Eloquent ™]

Jun 20, 2024 15:06:42 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Peso Pluma is releasing tonight - it might do over 100k and put some pressure on Taylor.

Who is Peso Pluma? Genuine question. I've never heard of this person. Lol

[85la]

Of all the people mentioned, I think Rihanna is easily the least likely to open with 1 million with her next album. She has never been a huge album seller comparable to her singles success and overall stardom, and her highest opener, Anti, only debuted with 238,000 units. With a long history of most of her albums debuting with even far less than that, even when she was in her prime and had hit singles, and including after she took a lengthy break before Anti, I just don't see her suddenly being able to open with 5-6 times the amount she usually did, even with the most intense, lucrative push with multiple physicals available first week.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Jun 20, 2024 18:05:28 GMT -5 👑 Eloquent ™ said:

Jun 20, 2024 15:06:42 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Peso Pluma is releasing tonight - it might do over 100k and put some pressure on Taylor.

Who is Peso Pluma? Genuine question. I've never heard of this person. Lol

Mexican singer mostly known for his regional Mexican songs. His music went viral on TikTok last year and he had a very successful year on Billboard. His album Genesis peaked at #3 on the Billboard 200 (still charting mostly in the top 40), was the 37th most consumed album of the year and won a Grammy. 
He already has ten top 40 songs on the Billboard Hot 100 (including his first top 10 song "Ella Baila Sola") and he charted four songs on the last year's Billboard Hot 100 YE chart: #26 Ella Baila Sola, #40 La Bebe Remix, #86 Por las Noches, #90 PRC.

Basically, he's one of the biggest artists in that genre in the US, maybe even the biggest.