Adam Lambert - Whataya Want From Me

[StarSprinkles]

Great update today!

[P!nkch TheO™]

Feb 7, 2010 11:35:45 GMT -5 moodswings said:

Feb 7, 2010 11:19:33 GMT -5 P!nkch TheO™ said:

Massive!

up to #25 on itunes!

There's that +100 we were waiting for!

Babycakes, i told you it was coming! Those who were laughing at my predictions can go hide under their rock now! :)

[moodswings]

I also like Theo's prediction

[Kworb]

Top 10 for sure, probably even top 5. I think #1 is unlikely because it's not smashing hard enough on iTunes, but we'll see. Huge sales aren't a requirement.

[P!nkch TheO™]

Feb 7, 2010 12:40:07 GMT -5 Kworb said:

Top 10 for sure, probably even top 5. I think #1 is unlikely because it's not smashing hard enough on iTunes, but we'll see. Huge sales aren't a requirement.

itunes has NOTHING to do with a song's performance on the radio. :) i still think this will hit numero uno!

[Kworb]

Yes it does. If sales don't follow airplay then the song almost always stalls. This new digital era is great for PDs because it is a very solid indicator of how the song is received by the public. Of course callout, polls, that kind of research is still the most important, but sales are definitely a factor as well. But as songs like Leavin' and now According To You have proven, you can smash on Top 40 without huge sales. And of course WWFM's sales could always go up to the 100K/week range.

[lucytor]

Feb 7, 2010 13:00:25 GMT -5 P!nkch TheO™ said:

Feb 7, 2010 12:40:07 GMT -5 Kworb said:

Top 10 for sure, probably even top 5. I think #1 is unlikely because it's not smashing hard enough on iTunes, but we'll see. Huge sales aren't a requirement.

itunes has NOTHING to do with a song's performance on the radio. :) i still think this will hit numero uno!

I am a complete and total ignoramus when it comes to this stuff. How do you decide months in advance if a song's going to do well or not? Is it the quality of the song? Is it the AI connection? Is it something about the way it started out?

[maria4hitz]

Already gone did great on radio and it didn't have huge sales. Its peak was #14 on Itunes (because of the AMA boost) and it peaked at #4 on pop radio. It was like 8 weeks #1 on hot ac and it's still climbing on AC, tomorrow it'll be at #5. Let's not forget it was released in august. Of course you can't compare WWFM to AG, WWFM is a first single (in my opinion, I don't count FYE) and AG was a third single and a ballad. But AG didn't need huge sales to do well on radio.

[StarSprinkles]

Let us not forget Orianthi either, who's looking to be the next #1 and her sales are barely better than WWFM

[brb]

Huge update today!

Feb 7, 2010 13:11:05 GMT -5 Kworb said:

Yes it does.

Sure does I can definitely see that each time I check Itunes and see where Orianthi's song is.. and didn't Jesse McCartney get to #1 with similar sales to Orianthi as well?

Adam has less than half of Orianthi's combined AI but it doesn't look like there's much AI between them in Itunes.

[Rurry]

Sorry, I'm still not convinced this is going to #1 based on one big update. It will have to keep those updates up to have a shot at #1. The CHR chart is unpredictable, you can't make assumptions for a peak based on a few updates.

It's a good sign that z100 put it on power, though.

[StarSprinkles]

Feb 7, 2010 13:31:23 GMT -5 brb said:

Huge update today!

Feb 7, 2010 13:11:05 GMT -5 Kworb said:

Yes it does.

Sure does I can definitely see that each time I check Itunes and see where Orianthi's song is.. and didn't Jesse McCartney get to #1 with similar sales to Orianthi as well?

Adam has less than half of Orianthi's combined AI but it doesn't look like there's much AI between them in Itunes.

Correct. Also, "Already Gone" stayed in the 25-30 range on iTunes consistently for its whole run, pretty much

[Kworb]

Sales are a factor, they are not the factor. The correlation between sales and peak potential on CHR is undoubtedly there. But we are dealing with statistics, with probabilities, so there will always be exceptions and outliers. You can only look at the general cause and effect, and from that derive the likelihood that songs will perform a certain way.

Also, I think it is likely (given her sales) that Orianthi will hit a brick wall like Boys Like Girls and Jay Sean did, and not go all the way to #1.

[moodswings]

His AI is not even 21 mill yet. Maybe, just maybe, his sales will increase as his airplay does. Isn't that usually how it works?

[Kworb]

That's what I hope to see as well, but for now he's looking at a week-to-week decrease again. I guess Oprah's the reason for that, though.

Also I'm not saying his sales are bad, they're very good, I just don't think they're "CHR #1" good, which is what sparked the discussion in the first place.

[tinawina]

Holy high expectations, Batman! LOL. First dude was going to be the biggest instant international superstar evah, then he was going to produce the bestus idol album in history, then headline biggest best most wonderful area tour this year, and now he's going to have a number one CHR song! Can we dial it back a bit? Can he just get a solid pop hit first? Why does everything with Adam HAVE to end up with the expectation to be the!best!ever! Yikes. Let the boy breathe, people.

Anyway, I think this is a hit. Number one would be nice, but I ain't counting on it.

[P!nkch TheO™]

Feb 7, 2010 13:11:05 GMT -5 Kworb said:

Yes it does. If sales don't follow airplay then the song almost always stalls. This new digital era is great for PDs because it is a very solid indicator of how the song is received by the public. Of course callout, polls, that kind of research is still the most important, but sales are definitely a factor as well. But as songs like Leavin' and now According To You have proven, you can smash on Top 40 without huge sales. And of course WWFM's sales could always go up to the 100K/week range.

no it doesn't. :)
many examples of songs that perform better on the radio than on itunes. ... "Who Knew" anyone??? the song was a #1 hit on pop radio, did great sales on the long run but never had a week in the top 10 on itunes.

this is back up to #24 on itunes, anyway.

[Kworb]

Almost all songs that manage to reach #1 on CHR are very strong digital sellers. That means if a song is not a very strong digital seller, it is unlikely to get to #1. I don't know why you're denying this. The fact that there are so few exceptions is only more evidence of how unlikely it is.

[P!nkch TheO™]

LOL! Again. "Who Knew" anyone? :)

and what's wrong with Adam's digital sales anyway ... #21 on pop radio ... #24 on itunes ... pretty normal, i think.

[Ke$haStan]

^pretty normal lol

this is doing well, lets not jinx it ya'll!

[Rurry]

I think people are just saying that saying this it's a little early to say this is a sure-fire #1 hit based on one +100 update.

Ultimately these kind of things are what set people up for disappointment.

[pnobelysk]

Feb 7, 2010 12:40:07 GMT -5 Kworb said:

Top 10 for sure, probably even top 5. I think #1 is unlikely because it's not smashing hard enough on iTunes, but we'll see. Huge sales aren't a requirement.

well if ur talking about the hot 100 i think number 1 is in range if they throw in an american idol performance the week his airplay is peaking

[P!nkch TheO™]

Feb 7, 2010 15:47:40 GMT -5 Rurry said:

I think people are just saying that saying this it's a little early to say this is a sure-fire #1 hit based on one +100 update.

Ultimately these kind of things are what set people up for disappointment.

I made a prediction weeks ago that this will hit #1. that's all. :)

[Kworb]

Who Knew was a strong seller for its time, and it followed another hit. As I said, very few exceptions.

Airplay affects sales, but sales also affect airplay. It's not a one way street.

[P!nkch TheO™]

Feb 7, 2010 15:51:12 GMT -5 Kworb said:

Who Knew was a strong seller for its time, and it followed another hit. As I said, very few exceptions.

Airplay affects sales, but sales also affect airplay. It's not a one way street.

whatever. ok. Arguing with you is pointless. end. :)

[Kworb]

Feb 7, 2010 15:49:37 GMT -5 pnobelysk said:

Feb 7, 2010 12:40:07 GMT -5 Kworb said:

Top 10 for sure, probably even top 5. I think #1 is unlikely because it's not smashing hard enough on iTunes, but we'll see. Huge sales aren't a requirement.

well if ur talking about the hot 100 i think number 1 is in range if they throw in an american idol performance the week his airplay is peaking

No I'm talking about Top 40 radio. Hot 100 is pretty much impossible. And I don't think they will waste an Idol performance slot on this song, they should let him perform when he releases his next single.

[brb]

Feb 7, 2010 13:52:35 GMT -5 Kworb said:

Also, I think it is likely (given her sales) that Orianthi will hit a brick wall like Boys Like Girls and Jay Sean did, and not go all the way to #1.

And who is exactly supposed to stop Orianthi? All the songs that are losing their bullets or Gaga and "Telephone" that currently sales even less? ;)

I can't see BEP and "Imma Be" getting to #1, not even sure about top 5.. as much as I like them, I can't stand that song and I think it will hit a brick wall.

Also, when it comes to sales, most songs that have lower AI than him in Pop have higher AI in rhytmic and urban (Luda for example,) HAC (Train,) or even country (Lady A) so he's doing well imo when it comes to sales.

Feb 7, 2010 14:10:50 GMT -5 Kworb said:

That's what I hope to see as well, but for now he's looking at a week-to-week decrease again. I guess Oprah's the reason for that, though.

Which week-to-week decrease again? -2% last week doesn't mean anything.. and this week it dropped in Itunes because of the grammy's.. it was expected.

[Kworb]

She will stop herself. Just because everything around her is falling doesn't mean she is immune to it.

Feb 7, 2010 15:56:55 GMT -5 brb said:

Which week-to-week decrease again? -2% last week doesn't mean anything.. and this week it dropped in Itunes because of the grammy's.. it was expected.

Yeah but even with the Grammy effect gone he's not where he was. Should be -10% or so for this week.

[foxxden]

Awesome update today...too bad he just missed the top 20 but obv he will make it there soon. Adam just got another OHP spin tonight!

I have a feeling he will be performing "WWFM" on Idol sooner than we think. He needs this single to be HUGE and an Idol performance will push this top 5 on iTunes for sure.

[- ` Toxic™]

I don't know if this has been posted or not but WWFM is #4 this week on the Canadian Hot 100.