HITS 7/05-7/06: EMINEM #1

[Honeymoon]

June 30, 2010

The Eminem-fueled record business Recovery lasted about a week, as we head into the summer months, when the industry repairs to the Hamptons or Malibu.

The comebacking hip-hop titan is a lock to repeat at #1 after selling a year's-best 740k as no debut this week comes close to six digits.

Based on figures from those one-day music retailers who haven't opened up eBay franchises, Def Jam/IDJ's The-Dream will be the top newcomer on next Tuesday's chart, with a total in the 55-60k range.
Photo Finish/RRP/Atlantic artists 3OH!3 are up next, with an estimated 40-45k, while Downtown's Scissor Sisters should do around 15-18k on their third U.S. album, Night Work.

The market was down 1% vs. last week, down 3% vs. same week last year and still down 11% year to date.
Now go and set off some cherry bombs.

[badrobot]

Hmm what did the Scissor Sisters previous albums open with? Personally I think this is their best one yet (Ta-Da was disappointing mostly).

[galvanize]

I'm very happy for Scissor Sisters numbers! That should help them get another top 20 album!

[Honeymoon]

Interesting that they didn't even give Recovery a sales projection for next week, my own guess is 200-225k. Hopefully Drake will get another 100k+ week

[areyoureadytojump]

Poor Scissor Sisters.

[jgizzle89]

Jun 30, 2010 14:41:57 GMT -5 Honeymoon said:

Interesting that they didn't even give Recovery a sales projection for next week, my own guess is 200-225k. Hopefully Drake will get another 100k+ week

i think it will get a minimum of 220k (that's a 70% drop). im guessing closer to 250k.

[jgizzle89]

oh, and those are terrible numbers for the-dream. his last album opened with 150k, and that was last year.

[slicknickshady]

A 70% drop? Don't think so. Especially with all the Add's Love The Way You Lie is getting.

[Music Fan]

I'm guessing 245-270K for Eminem

[Honeymoon]

Jun 30, 2010 15:10:17 GMT -5 slicknickshady said:

A 70% drop? Don't think so. Especially with all the Add's Love The Way You Lie is getting.

70% is only to be expected when you debut with that high of sales, although Eminem could be the exception to that rule, anything is possible.

It would be incredible if he could do 259k so that it boosts his cumulative sales up to 1 million. And we still don't know how much he sold through street date violations the week before this week, could be 1-3k

[chopped89]

I love how u always predict low numbers for Eminem....People went crazy when some of us said he's gonna do over 700k!
Hopefully he'll do more than 300k!

[HolidayGuy]

Why did Billboard mention Kylie Minogue? Isn't that out next week?

Scissor Sisters' debut peaked at #102, while Tah-Dah debuted at #19 with roughly 42K in its first week.

[musicrocks]

What was Relapse's second week drop?

[HolidayGuy]

^Relapse dropped 65% in week 2, to 210,984 units. Was that album released on Monday, as well?

[metalfan87]

Jun 30, 2010 17:36:11 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

^Relapse dropped 65% in week 2, to 210,984 units. Was that album released on Monday, as well?

Tuesday

[slicknickshady]

I'm expecting a 63-65% drop. I just think 70% is way to high. I thought for the longest Time Recovery would sell as much as Relapse did first week and he ended up going way over that. I tend to think the drop won't be higher than relapse so im sticking with the drop will be about the same as Relapse.

I could be wrong. I guess it could be a higher drop but 70% is way too steep. I went to Meijers last monday and they didnt have it out. They said it was coming out on the 22nd. I went to Best Buy and they didnt even have it on the new release shelf so i had to go to the rap section to get it. So I really don't know how much of a difference releasing monday had.

[HolidayGuy]

^A 70% drop compared to a 65% drop is a difference of 37K, so that's not that large of a difference, really. Whether the one-day difference in the release compared to Relapse makes a difference to the second-week drop, we'll see. Would be cool for his album to scan 1m in two weeks- a 65% dip would put him right around the mark, actually.

[slicknickshady]

Jun 30, 2010 18:51:45 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

^A 70% drop compared to a 65% drop is a difference of 37K, so that's not that large of a difference, really. Whether the one-day difference in the release compared to Relapse makes a difference to the second-week drop, we'll see. Would be cool for his album to scan 1m in two weeks- a 65% dip would put him right around the mark, actually.

I'm not saying it's impossible for it to be a 70% drop but that just seems way to high. I think the more interesting question will be can Recovery do 3 Weeks at #1 at least. I think he will. I think what im most interested in is Eminem's Week 4 Sales. Because I'm Assuming Week 3 will be over 100K.

[hannah]

any miley predictions?

[Deleted]

^ not yet....

[slicknickshady]

No Eminem Prediction either yet.

[popindustrialist]

Miley's former fans are at the movies this week watching mormon propaganda, so I dont think they'll even be in record stores to ignore her album. 40 k'ish.

[David]

Jun 30, 2010 14:39:01 GMT -5 Honeymoon said:

The market was down 1% vs. last week, down 3% vs. same week last year and still down 11% year to date.

Thats actually really good. Usually when I read these things they always say "down 14% year to date". I know 3% aint much, but its something. I still maintain that if we get as many big acts releasing next year as expected, and most of them do well, then we should have a great year for sales next year. GaGa, Justin Timberlake, Britney (which may be this year), Kelly Clarkson, Nelly Furtado, Rihanna, P!nk (maybe), Linkin Park, No Doubt and I know there were others.. But if none of those acts disappoint sales wise, it could be a nice year for album sales. Especially opening weeks.

[galvanize]

YOUR FOURTH OF JULY WEAKEND CHART PREVIEW

Eminem will easily hold onto the #1 spot next Tuesday, as the album experiences far less decay than the typical high-volume, second-week decline, with a likely fall-off of just around 55%. Shady will lead as many as six UMG titles into the Top 10—a nice housewarming present for incoming co-CEO Lucian Grainge. That said, it's always difficult to know how things will trend during a holiday weekend, however, especially one that most people spend outside. With that caveat, here's how things are trending going into the long weekend:
Recovery

Eminem (Shady/Aftermath/Interscope) 320-340k
Drake (Young Money/Cash Money/Universal Motown) 115-125k
* The-Dream (Def Jam/IDJ) 55-60k
Twilight Saga: Eclipse ST (Chop Shop/Atlantic) 55-60k
Now 34 (Capitol/EMI) 45-50k
Justin Bieber (Island/IDJ) 40-45kThe-Dream
Miley Cyrus (Hollywood) 35-40k
* 3OH!3 (Atlantic) 35-40k
Jack Johnson (Brushfire/Universal Republic) 30-35k
Lady Antebellum (Capitol Nashville/EMI) 27-30k
Sarah McLachlan (Arista.RMG) 24-27k
Ozzy Osbourne (Epic) 24-27kScissor-Sisters
Lady Gaga (Interscope) 24-27k
Usher (LaFace/JLG) 21-24k
The Roots (Def Jam/IDJ) 21-24k
Zac Brown Band (Atlantic) 17-20k
* Scissor Sisters (Downtown) 17-20k
* Howard Shore, Twilight Saga: Eclipse score (E1) 17-20k
* Denotes debut

You may now return to desperately trying to get the hell out of Dodge, along with 35 million other Americans. (7/2a)

I really hope the Scissor Sisters break 20K atleast.

[wavey.]

A million next week for Em? Nice,and his previous album is on its way to 2mili,

[Cerbius]

Not a bad drop at all for Eminem.

[chopped89]

I'm laughing so hard now(At people underestimating Eminem for 1st and 2nd week projections)!
I knew he could push more than 300k!

[slicknickshady]

Jul 2, 2010 12:22:17 GMT -5 chopped89 said:

I'm laughing so hard now(At people underestimating Eminem for 1st and 2nd week projections)!
I knew he could push more than 300k!

Yep. Week 3 and Week 4 are also going to be underestimated be people here. I'll just sit back.

[Deleted]

Jul 2, 2010 11:08:24 GMT -5 @galvanize said:

Eminem (Shady/Aftermath/Interscope) 320-340k
Jack Johnson (Brushfire/Universal Republic) 30-35k
Lady Antebellum (Capitol Nashville/EMI) 27-30k

Huge!!!
**bows down**

[slicknickshady]

That's not a bad 2nd to 3rd Week drop for Drake either.

I think Eminem will have a couple more weeks at #1 after this as well.