HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Feb 2, 2012 10:32:34 GMT -5
This should be an exciting week- we will see Kelly Clarkson's and Adele's singles jockey for the top spot- and the return of Madonna. Some big stations are touting they'll play "Give Me All Your Luvin'" at the top of every hour- so we could see a splashy (for Madonna, in this day and age) airplay showing leading up through Wednesday. Last Five Threads: 2/11/12, 2/4/12, 1/28/12, 1/21/12, 1/14/12Mediabase 7-Day-Rolling Quick-Cut Airplay, 1/26/12- 2/1/121. RIHANNA - We Found Love f/Calvin Harris: 145.799 (- 1.900) 2. BRUNO MARS - It Will Rain: 130.694 (- 1.659) 3. FLO RIDA - Good Feeling: 125.405 (- 0.491) 4. ADELE - Set Fire To The Rain: 125.039 (+ 1.639) 5. KATY PERRY - The One That Got Away: 120.383 (- 1.714) 6. JAY Z & KANYE WEST - N***** In Paris: 88.916 (- 0.931) 7. J. COLE - Workout: 77.460 (- 1.510) 8. DAVID GUETTA - Without You f/Usher: 74.984 (- 0.288) 9. JESSIE J - Domino: 71.879 (+ 1.798) ▲10. MAROON 5 F/CHRISTINA AGUILERA - Moves Like Jagger: 70.978 (- 0.020) 11. LMFAO - Sexy And I Know It: 69.777 (- 2.165) ▼ 12. ADELE - Someone Like You: 69.379 (- 0.946) ▼ 13. DAVID GUETTA - Turn Me On f/Nicki Minaj: 66.300 (+ 1.964)14. BIG SEAN - Dance (A$$): 63.142 (- 0.752) 15. GAVIN DEGRAW - Not Over You: 63.013 (+ 0.129) 16. SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE: Love You Like A Love Song: 60.198 (+ 0.396) ▲ 17. GYM CLASS HEROES - Stereo Hearts f/Adam Levine: 59.737 (- 0.985) ▼ 18. DRAKE - Make Me Proud f/Nicki Minaj: 59.315 (+ 0.551) 19. DRAKE - The Motto f/Lil Wayne: 55.475 (+ 1.299)20. PITBULL F/CHRIS BROWN - International Love: 54.721 (+ 1.422) ▲OTHERSWIZ KHALIFA/SNOOP DOGG - Young, Wild & Free f/B. Mars: 54.096 (+ 1.745)CHRIS YOUNG - You: 53.761 (- 0.038) WALE - Lotus Flower Bomb f/Miguel: 52.987 (- 0.310) LUKE BRYAN - I Don't Want This Night To End: 51.965 (- 0.514) THE BAND PERRY - All Your Life: 51.922 (+ 0.333) LADY ANTEBELLUM - Just A Kiss: 51.852 (- 0.623) KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 46.022 (+ 2.643)GYM CLASS HEROES - Ass Back Home f/Neon Hitch: 44.169 (+ 0.189) DRAKE - Take Care f/Rihanna: 44.079 (+ 2.118)FRAY - Heartbeat: 29.094 (+ 0.116) TAYLOR SWIFT - Ours: 27.835 (+ 0.351) BEYONCE - Love On Top: 26.704 (+ 0.534) WANTED - Glad You Came: 23.270 (+ 0.811) RIHANNA - Talk That Talk f/Jay-Z: 20.509 (+ 0.357) BEYONCE - Countdown: 19.718 (- 0.178) TRAIN - Drive By: 17.390 (+ 0.728) FOO FIGHTERS - These Days: 13.914 (+ 0.137) LMFAO - Sorry For Party Rocking: 12.040 (+ 0.654) FOSTER THE PEOPLE - Don't Stop (Color On The Walls: 10.943 (+ 0.256) CHRIS BROWN - Turn Up The Music: 6.035 (+ 1.141)JASON MRAZ - I Won't Give Up: 4.813 (+ 0.264) |
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chris89
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Post by chris89 on Feb 2, 2012 10:41:43 GMT -5
KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 46.022 (+ 2.643)
Get that #1 before Madonna starts making things crazy!
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Post by josh on Feb 2, 2012 10:41:56 GMT -5
J. Cole Workout was bolded for losing a million, or else the - is a typo  |
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Feb 2, 2012 10:48:40 GMT -5
^Oops- thought I saw a "+" there- fixed. :)
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jebsib
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Post by jebsib on Feb 2, 2012 13:17:54 GMT -5
Wasn't the 'hour on the hour' weekend a tactic for Rihanna's "You Da One" as well?
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Post by josh on Feb 2, 2012 13:21:29 GMT -5
Wasn't the 'hour on the hour' weekend a tactic for Rihanna's "You Da One" as well? Yeah. First BTW, then YDO, now maybe GMAYL too? |
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Feb 2, 2012 13:25:02 GMT -5
Not sure if it will be just for the Seacrest show, or those stations in general?
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Agent Yoncé
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Post by Agent Yoncé on Feb 2, 2012 14:02:53 GMT -5
Kelly & Adele has been flip flopping for the biggest updates this week. Kelly wins today, but is still far from closing in on the wide gap between 'em.
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Kishi KCM
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Post by Kishi KCM on Feb 2, 2012 15:28:11 GMT -5
KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 46.022 (+ 2.643) Get that #1 before Madonna starts making things crazy! "Stronger" will make the biggest impact in the end. :) |
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Feb 2, 2012 15:52:08 GMT -5
Honestly I think the chances of a Madonna #1 are getting overblown. It has a release schedule similar to Gaga's Born This Way, which proved to split the song into two big weeks as opposed to one massive week. On top of that, Madonna is not Gaga and anticipation is nowhere near as high as it was for BTW (it's easy to forget that now since the BTW era didn't really live up to hype in the long run). I think a more realistic scenario is a high debut for GMAYL close to the top ten followed by a rise to the top 5 the week after the superbowl and then a slow fall from there. I'll even make a positional guess:
week 1 #14
week 2 #3
week 3 #8
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Feb 2, 2012 15:52:55 GMT -5
(I should note that when I say "Madonna is not Gaga" I'm talking about airplay/sales, not artistry! No stan-hate please!)
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Agent Yoncé
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Post by Agent Yoncé on Feb 2, 2012 16:11:21 GMT -5
^ Yes for clarifying. You know how those kweens can get. Lol
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slw84
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Post by slw84 on Feb 2, 2012 16:35:30 GMT -5
^ Yes for clarifying. You know how those kweens can get. Lol When I read that I was wondering i fsomeone planned to pick out his casket soon...lol. Glad he clarified before the meltdowns |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2012 17:35:18 GMT -5
All that made me think was "It'd be really funny if Madonna's GMAYL sounded like a Gaga song like Poker Face or Paparazzi and everyone started accusing her of copying Gaga."
I'd die. :kii:
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Feb 2, 2012 17:36:55 GMT -5
If Madge's track gets hour-on-the-hour play at the rumored stations from Friday through Sunday night, those will be some pretty impressive audience totals. Of course, the eighth-/ninth-/10th-day numbers would look pretty ugly.  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2012 17:40:15 GMT -5
Well, the airplay updates for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (and 8th, 9th, 10th) days would be a carbon copy of YDO's then. That's just the updates; the actual AI might be different for days 4-10 depending on how the song fares during the week.
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kml567
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Post by kml567 on Feb 2, 2012 23:54:53 GMT -5
The good news is Kelly got promoted to power rotation on Z100 and Adele got demoted out of power rotation, so that's a ~6 million swing in Audience from Z100 alone this upcoming week.
Unfortunately, Kelly has not further distanced herself in sales after 3 days. She still needs to make up the difference of 20k sales (or 20 mil audience) somehow.
I think we'll have to wait until next week for possible new #1. It'll be an epic battle between Madonna, Kelly and Adele!!
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Feb 3, 2012 0:24:02 GMT -5
Just hoping that Gotye can somehow jump into the Top 20 this week, Avicii can finally break the Top 50, M83 can finally chart, and Calvin Harris starts to bubble under.
All of these are stretches, I know.
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cesarams
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Post by cesarams on Feb 3, 2012 6:48:37 GMT -5
Today's update:
TOP 20:
1. RIHANNA - We Found Love f/Calvin Harris: 144.508 (- 1.291)
2. BRUNO MARS - It Will Rain: 128.170 (- 2.524)
3. ADELE - Set Fire To The Rain: 126.275 (+ 1.236) ▲
4. FLO RIDA - Good Feeling: 125.117 (- 0.288) ▼
5. KATY PERRY - The One That Got Away: 118.608 (- 1.775)
6. JAY Z & KANYE WEST - N***** In Paris: 88.128 (- 0.788)
7. J. COLE - Workout: 76.117 (- 1.343)
8. DAVID GUETTA - Without You f/Usher: 74.657 (- 0.327)
9. JESSIE J - Domino: 73.400 (+ 1.521) ▲
10. MAROON 5 F/CHRISTINA AGUILERA - Moves Like Jagger: 71.355 (+ 0.377)
11. ADELE - Someone Like You: 68.963 (- 0.416) ▲
12. LMFAO - Sexy And I Know It: 68.420 (- 1.357) ▼
13. DAVID GUETTA - Turn Me On f/Nicki Minaj: 67.568 (+ 1.268)
14. GAVIN DEGRAW - Not Over You: 63.308 (+ 0.295) ▲
15. BIG SEAN - Dance (A$$): 62.337 (- 0.805) ▼
16. SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE: Love You Like A Love Song: 60.136 (- 0.062)
17. DRAKE - Make Me Proud f/Nicki Minaj: 59.360 (+ 0.045) ▲
18. GYM CLASS HEROES - Stereo Hearts f/Adam Levine: 58.369 (- 1.368) ▼
19. DRAKE - The Motto f/Lil Wayne: 57.088 (+ 1.613)
20. PITBULL F/CHRIS BROWN - International Love: 55.623 (+ 0.902)
OTHERS:
WIZ KHALIFA/SNOOP DOGG - Young, Wild & Free f/B. Mars: 54.966 (+ 0.870)
CHRIS YOUNG - You: 54.132 (+ 0.371)
THE BAND PERRY - All Your Life: 52.229 (+ 0.307)
WALE - Lotus Flower Bomb f/Miguel: 52.198 (- 0.789)
LADY ANTEBELLUM - Just A Kiss: 51.909 (+ 0.057)
KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 48.543 (+ 2.521)
DRAKE - Take Care f/Rihanna: 46.424 (+ 2.345)
GYM CLASS HEROES - Ass Back Home f/Neon Hitch: 44.819 (+ 0.650)
FRAY - Heartbeat: 29.236 (+ 0.142)
TAYLOR SWIFT - Ours: 28.225 (+ 0.390)
BEYONCE - Love On Top: 27.490 (+ 0.786)
WANTED - Glad You Came: 24.247 (+ 0.977)
RIHANNA - Talk That Talk f/Jay-Z: 21.189 (+ 0.680)
BEYONCE - Countdown: 19.808 (+ 0.090)
TRAIN - Drive By: 18.267 (+ 0.877)
FOO FIGHTERS - These Days: 13.877 (- 0.037)
LMFAO - Sorry For Party Rocking: 12.508 (+ 0.468)
FOSTER THE PEOPLE - Don't Stop (Color On The Walls: 11.200 (+ 0.257)
CHRIS BROWN - Turn Up The Music: 6.084 (+ 0.049)
JASON MRAZ - I Won't Give Up: 4.951 (+ 0.138)
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Post by strikeleo on Feb 3, 2012 8:41:32 GMT -5
If Kelly keeps gaining at this rate, she's gonna be able to make up about 7-9 points with AI. So that's only 70k she needs to sell more than Adele, which is doable. Last week she outsold Adele by 55k, or something like that, if I'm not mistaken.
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Post by Living Legend on Feb 3, 2012 10:14:23 GMT -5
Madonna needs to sell at least 280,000 in order to debut at #1 on the Hot 100. Can she do it? This is definitely gonna be an exciting week to watch. My predictions are:
1) Kelly Clarkson (240,000)
2) Madonna (220,000) *should be enough to debut Top 5
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Feb 3, 2012 10:17:46 GMT -5
You think Madonna will get 220k with 3 days of sales? Really?
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chris89
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Post by chris89 on Feb 3, 2012 10:25:28 GMT -5
I think Kelly has it in the bag.
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Post by Living Legend on Feb 3, 2012 10:33:13 GMT -5
You think Madonna will get 220k with 3 days of sales? Really? I don't see why not. She has tons of hype due to it being Super Bowl weekend plus the song is being played at the top of the hour on 95 stations including Z100. If I recall Taylor Swift was able to sell 300k of "Mine" in it's first 3 days. |
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Post by neverduplicated on Feb 3, 2012 10:36:21 GMT -5
You think Madonna will get 220k with 3 days of sales? Really? I don't see why not. She has tons of hype due to it being Super Bowl weekend plus the song is being played at the top of the hour on 95 stations including Z100. If I recall Taylor Swift was able to sell 300k of "Mine" in it's first 3 days. I'll obviously admit if I'm wrong, but I just don't see this song selling that much in 3 days. Yes, "Mine" sold 300k in three days because it was the lead single from the artist who had just wrapped up the era for the best-selling album of the past 5 years and who is pretty much guaranteed to sell gangbusters on Itunes from any new release. Madonna used to be that artist but I just don't think she can attract that kind of digital fanbase. Like I said, I'll gladly admit if I'm wrong, but I just don't see number 1 on the Hot 100 happening, especially after hearing the track and not finding anything that really sets it apart from pop radio today or Madonna's own catalogue. |
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Feb 3, 2012 10:38:11 GMT -5
So "4 Minutes" sold about 30k/day during its opening week, which would be the equivalent of her selling 90-100k in a 3-day opening. I really don't see how people are thinking that Madonna, a woman who has had only 2 top ten hits in the past 9 years, is suddenly going to surpass her best digital sales ever in less than half a week.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Feb 3, 2012 10:50:01 GMT -5
^Yes. People always aim too high and then are disappointed.
I'm not expecting #1 on the Hot 100 at all.
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dbhmr
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Post by dbhmr on Feb 3, 2012 11:03:24 GMT -5
I don't know...with the hype and the Superbowl, I think she'll really do quite well in this first week. I'm not sure it will be enough to top the Hot 100 after three days, but the next week could certainly be hers.
I still think Kelly's biggest obstacle will be Adele due to Kelly's lower AI. She's been selling well all week, though, and will hopefully get a boost from the Superbowl to give her the edge.
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Rodze
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Post by Rodze on Feb 3, 2012 11:50:52 GMT -5
Madonna will probably be top 10 by tonight, at the current rate. I guess now you'll realize this whole "releasing days earlier so it can slowly crawl to the top" doesn't make sense when you're big profile artist promoting your anticipated single.
I think it's just technically not possible to release a single during the weekend? It was either today or 00:00 Monday, hours after the SB. Still, they should have released it in the latest possible minute today. I welcome examples of singles released during the weekend, however, if you know of any.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Feb 3, 2012 12:21:54 GMT -5
I doubt it will debut at No. 1. Re the stations- all 95 of those probably aren't playing it every hour- some will be, yes, but probably not all (and is it at the top of every hour or no? Guess it doesn't make a difference).
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