Juanca
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Post by Juanca on Dec 15, 2011 21:22:28 GMT -5
Well, this still has a bullet and it has rebounded before, so let's see what happens tomorrow. I still think it is going to be hard for it to make it, but at least it can hang in there for another week. This is similar to What The Hell, which was really close to make it to the Top 10 but lost steam when it got close. Good luck Kelly!
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Post by josh on Dec 15, 2011 21:36:40 GMT -5
Seems like it hasn't lost this much before rebounding though. Not positive on that though.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Dec 15, 2011 22:38:54 GMT -5
But, with Adele, Cobra, and Maroon 5 all falling at a quick pace and Gaga slowing tremendously, this still looks to sneak into the top 10 next week as SLY, YMMF, and MLJ slip below it.
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Caviar
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Post by Caviar on Dec 15, 2011 22:42:38 GMT -5
But, with Adele, Cobra, and Maroon 5 all falling at a quick pace and Gaga slowing tremendously, this still looks to sneak into the top 10 next week as SLY, YMMF, and MLJ slip below it. That would only apply if it's gains/losses can stay consistent as the other songs are falling.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Dec 15, 2011 22:46:47 GMT -5
But, with Adele, Cobra, and Maroon 5 all falling at a quick pace and Gaga slowing tremendously, this still looks to sneak into the top 10 next week as SLY, YMMF, and MLJ slip below it. That would only apply if it's gains/losses can stay consistent as the other songs are falling. It very well may start dropping like a rock next week, but given the time of year and this song's past updates, it will probably just lose around this same amount everyday, maybe even gaining a few spins again. I'm more concerned about Adele. SLY seems to keep slowing its losses, which in turn could translate to her single-handedly blocking Kelly from the top ten. (In a similar way Diddy-Dirty Money did it to Avril Lavigne.)
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Bluesy
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Post by Bluesy on Dec 16, 2011 10:08:24 GMT -5
Well, MKIA has a negative bullet today and has dropped a spot to #12 on Mediabase Top 40. T-Pain is only 65 points below at #13 and with a strong 646 bullet, so it sure looks like MKIA will not reach the top 10 on this chart. Oh well. It's been a really good run for MKIA on radio anyway.
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Post by longdistancerunner on Dec 16, 2011 15:56:32 GMT -5
her new single is appearing on station request links now this week...so my last hopes for this song are about to vanish. Hope you are right about sneaking in a week of T10.
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james
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Post by james on Dec 16, 2011 17:39:53 GMT -5
I think it's unfortunate that Kelly gets a fourth quarter release while her album is out of the top #50 and her single is also outside the top #40.
It would of been nice if RCA executed their timing a little better. Her only fourth quarter release will also be marked by her lowest selling album, it's unfortunate.
Also why is everyone concerned about a top #10 peak on CHR? It means zero for the song and the album.
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dbhmr
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Post by dbhmr on Dec 16, 2011 17:53:37 GMT -5
^Breakaway was released in Q4.
And it doesn't mean "zero" for the song. It isn't monumental, but it's another tally for her CHR top tens, and that's good for press release fodder. Also, the better this does, the easier it will be for WDKY to do well, which will help the album. I don't think it matters much at this point--MKIA has done well enough to pave the way for WDKY, but if a song is stuck at #11, why is it surprising people want it to break into the top 10?
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Dec 16, 2011 17:54:17 GMT -5
Also why is everyone concerned about a top #10 peak on CHR? It means zero for the song and the album. Yes, it does. If you can say a song was a top ten hit on pop radio, then pop radio is going to be more inclined to pick up the next single. The general public may even stumble upon hearing MKIA was a top ten pop single, allowing them to be more interested in checking out newer material.
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james
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Post by james on Dec 16, 2011 18:12:44 GMT -5
^Breakaway was released in Q4. And it doesn't mean "zero" for the song. It isn't monumental, but it's another tally for her CHR top tens, and that's good for press release fodder. Also, the better this does, the easier it will be for WDKY to do well, which will help the album. I don't think it matters much at this point--MKIA has done well enough to pave the way for WDKY, but if a song is stuck at #11, why is it surprising people want it to break into the top 10? Because the priorities for a record label should be profitability and longevity of an era. Although the latter has been targeted with the release of MKIA, having the lead single outside the top #40 digitally while it is so close to Christmas is potentially damaging to an era. Added to that the release of WDKY has dampened buzz. Randomly performing the song on X-Factor, then randomly releasing the video may have kept Kelly in the loop. However it's buzz that could of been used to ignite a MLWSWY effect and really rocket the album and the single up the charts. Having WDKY linger in the #100's in not what high level promotion should be doing. The basis of the story is that Kelly could of been inside the top #10 of billboard at this point had RCA picked and moved on between singles. Stretching out MKIA's run for a mere top #10 CHR peak really means very little to a label and overall Kelly's career. The album is struggling to have the legs of My December at this point and although it will undoubtedly pick up post Christmas, it is hard to maintain sales. Added to that WDKY's performance in Australia is slightly concerning. Australia is one of her highest performing markets and the single is stuck in the #40's. If WDKY performs poorly post January it could pretty much mean the end for the album.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Dec 16, 2011 18:58:10 GMT -5
Considering there have been much longer waits in between singles before with much success coming to the artist, no one should be worrying about that right now.
Plus, it's not like MKIA is completely out of people's minds like when "Smile" fell off the charts and RCA waited so long to release WYWH. MKIA is still #12 on pop radio and losing spins at a very, very slow pace. She's definitely still in the public eye.
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wallace
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Post by wallace on Dec 16, 2011 19:44:12 GMT -5
Also why is everyone concerned about a top #10 peak on CHR? It means zero for the song and the album. Yes, it does. If you can say a song was a top ten hit on pop radio, then pop radio is going to be more inclined to pick up the next single. The general public may even stumble upon hearing MKIA was a top ten pop single, allowing them to be more interested in checking out newer material. Like RCA's not gonna spin this as Top 10 (because it went Top 10 in the Hot 100) or even a #1 (because it went #1 on HAC). That's how labels do business. The general public knows very little about the Mediabase charts.
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neally
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Post by neally on Dec 16, 2011 21:27:00 GMT -5
Yes, it does. If you can say a song was a top ten hit on pop radio, then pop radio is going to be more inclined to pick up the next single. The general public may even stumble upon hearing MKIA was a top ten pop single, allowing them to be more interested in checking out newer material. Like RCA's not gonna spin this as Top 10 (because it went Top 10 in the Hot 100) or even a #1 (because it went #1 on HAC). That's how labels do business. The general public knows very little about the Mediabase charts. Exactly and don't forget #1 peak in 2-3 other countries, #4 peak in UK, etc....
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clarksodi
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Post by clarksodi on Dec 17, 2011 3:35:42 GMT -5
Like RCA's not gonna spin this as Top 10 (because it went Top 10 in the Hot 100) or even a #1 (because it went #1 on HAC). That's how labels do business. The general public knows very little about the Mediabase charts. Exactly and don't forget #1 peak in 2-3 other countries, #4 peak in UK, etc.... MKIA - "US and International #1 Hit" sounds about right. I am kind of glad they're milking this album for all it's worth with MKIA alone. If WDKY turns into a smash, it sounds like it would be more profitable. I wonder if RCA has exhausted its promotional budget for 2011, and is simply waiting for 2012.
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Post by josh on Dec 17, 2011 9:19:44 GMT -5
12 = KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 6367 +14 38 +49 33.206 -0.331 +14 spins +49 bullet -0.331 audience
Gained spins today... its bullet is back. This song. Wtf.
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Az Paynter
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Post by Az Paynter on Dec 17, 2011 10:07:22 GMT -5
Hot AC is a 2-day update since I didn't do the breakdown yesterday (cause of the big spin loss on pop) POP (As Seen Above):11 12 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 6367 6329 38 33.206 +14 Spins +49 Bullet -0.331 Audience 1007 Spins from #8, M5/Xtina (+113) 554 Spins from #9, Adele (+130) 226 Spins from #10, Selena Gomez (-114) 12 Spins from #11, Cobra Starship (+103) 24 Spins ahead of #13, T-Pain (-41) HOT AC (2-Day Update):1 1 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 4257 4204 53 25.506 +42 Spins +42 Bullet +0.372 Audience 363 Spins ahead of #2, Adele (+147) 374 Spins ahead of #3, M5/Xtina (+126) Critical update on pop today. I'd figured that T-Pain would pass by today and he hasn't. One more decisive gain from Kelly to keep her ahead (or T-Pain having a really lousy spin update) could see Kelly back at #11 for the week, as she passes CS tomorrow. Even single-digit spin gains from here will be crucial in MKIA's potential for a top 10 peak. Adele will come down within a week. MLJ will take a bit longer by the look of things, but as long as Kelly is not losing spins herself she stands a better chance of meeting them halfway before something else comes up from underneath (GaGa would be the one to do this, but even then she's still 1100+ spins away and erratic in her gains).
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bb
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Post by bb on Dec 17, 2011 17:37:58 GMT -5
^^Thank you so much for the update, as well as the helpful breakdown of its chances. Who would have thought, three months ago, that this was going to maybe break top ten on pop? I'll be so excited. I remember how ecstatic I was when it cracked the top ten on BB100.
I'm not feeling as much urgency with this single's life anymore. It will chug along until "What Doesn't Kill You (Stronger)" is released. I can't see it losing significant spins until then--- it's so middle of the road and inoffensive that it'll basically sit there until something passes it. Top ten or not, it's been exciting and strange to watch with all of you and I hope "What Doesn't Kill You (Stronger)" will reap the same success, if not much more.
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Az Paynter
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Post by Az Paynter on Dec 18, 2011 6:25:47 GMT -5
POP:11 12 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 6315 6385 -70 32.732 -52 Spins -108 Bullet -0.474 Audience 936 Spins from #8, M5/Xtima (+71) 466 Spins from #9, Adele (+88) 294 Spins from #10, Selena Gomez (-68) 132 Spins from #11, T-Pain (-156) HOT AC:1 1 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 4262 4201 61 25.649 +5 Spins +8 Bullet +0.143 Audience 390 Spins ahead of #2, Adele (+27) 408 Spins ahead of #3, M5/Xtina (+34) Blegh, spin loss on pop sucks. I really wish this would have stayed static spins-wise on pop, like it is on Hot AC. It pisses me off when songs are denied the peaks they deserve.
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Ragin
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Post by Ragin on Dec 18, 2011 6:49:55 GMT -5
That's pop music though. Many songs that "deserve" play on pop radio don't even make the top40. Many songs that don't deserve to see the light of day make it and even make it top 10. And so goes the fickle world of pop music.
I think that's why I've been more in favor of Kelly focusing on putting out quality music to keep a steady fan base than trying to achieve pop stardom. I've seen a lot of fading stars fade a lot faster than they needed to by trying to pander to pop.
Good music makes it way to the scene, most of the time, particularly by top artists.
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slamina
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Post by slamina on Dec 18, 2011 7:01:03 GMT -5
Uh oh. Is top 10 out of the picture now?
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Bluesy
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Post by Bluesy on Dec 18, 2011 11:03:22 GMT -5
Uh oh. Is top 10 out of the picture now? Probably, but it's no big deal. A #11 peak is fine. This song has way over-performed what I originally thought was it's potential, so I'm very happy with it's run.
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Ragin
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Post by Ragin on Dec 19, 2011 6:09:52 GMT -5
Uh oh. Is top 10 out of the picture now? More than likely, but in looking at what is losing spins and what is behind this song, there is still an outside chance of a backwards bullet into the top 10. We'll see.
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Post by ALEX GONE WILD on Dec 19, 2011 6:20:28 GMT -5
11 12 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 6322 6385 -63
+7 spins -7 bullet
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Az Paynter
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Post by Az Paynter on Dec 19, 2011 6:40:51 GMT -5
POP:
11 12 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 6322 6385 -63 32.585
+7 Spins +7 Bullet -0.147 Audience
848 Spins from #8, M5/Xtina (+88) 402 Spins from #9, Selena Gomez (-108) 250 Spins from #10, Adele (+216) 190 Spins from #11, T-Pain (-58)
HOT AC:
1 1 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 4273 4189 84 25.825
+11 Spins +23 Bullet +0.176 Audience
426 Spins ahead of #2, Adele (+36) 441 Spins ahead of #3, M5/Xtina (+33)
At this point it's not even worth gauging the gaps between songs on Hot AC; right now Kelly is the only song bulleted in the top 5. As for pop, this was a very good update in holding MKIA steady. Adele had a -200 drop today, so Kelly's spin gain (minimal as it was) really helped to close that gap. Right now what needs to happen for Kelly to back into top 10 ('cause if she makes it at all she won't be bulleted) would be for GaGa keep at her slow crawl (as of this update GaGa has only just come within 1000 spins of MKIA) while MKIA drops at a glacial pace, so M5/XTina can drop down below.
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MRT
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Post by MRT on Dec 19, 2011 9:40:22 GMT -5
If she doesn't get it this week then she'll never have it. SFTTR is exploding.
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street
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Post by street on Dec 19, 2011 10:01:40 GMT -5
So no chance at a #10 peak?
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mamaloveme
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Post by mamaloveme on Dec 19, 2011 12:05:00 GMT -5
shame MLJ didn't drop quicker!
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Az Paynter
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Post by Az Paynter on Dec 20, 2011 6:23:54 GMT -5
POP:
11 12 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 6334 6405 -71 32.286
+12 Spins -8 Bullet -0.299 Audience
739 Spins from #8, M5/Xtina (+109) 511 Spins from #9, Selena Gomez (-109) 209 Spins from #10, T-Pain (-19) 90 Spins from #11, Adele (+160)
HOT AC:
1 1 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 4293 4201 92 25.973
+20 Spins +8 Bullet +0.148 Audience
Not quite time to say 'HUZZAH' yet but that 2nd spin gain in a row on pop is very nice to see - at the very least it looks like it might make it back up to #11 this week as Adele falls below it (and presumably by enough that even with Kelly likely not being played on the year-end AT40 special, Adele can't slip back ahead over the weekend). After that, Kelly will just need to hold steady until M5/XTina come down to meet her, as they aren't THAT far away - it just comes down to how fast or slow they drop spins.
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Ragin
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Post by Ragin on Dec 20, 2011 13:14:36 GMT -5
It's looking more and more likely. It completely depends on if this song can maintain relatively steady for two weeks.
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