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Post by TheAzianWill on Aug 11, 2012 10:48:52 GMT -5
This song might take song of the year, by Sunday Ellie will net about 143,000 plays for this year so far! Expect that number to go up really fast as long as she holds #1
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Post by josh on Aug 11, 2012 11:23:34 GMT -5
She has a loooong way to go to get #1. I wouldn't be making bold statements like that. Is it a possible contender? Sure. But other huge songs still have a way to go to get #1 as well.
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Lozzy
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Post by Lozzy on Aug 11, 2012 11:24:21 GMT -5
This song might take song of the year I feel like you say that for every song.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2012 11:29:18 GMT -5
It's only #20 on the year-end Top 40 chart with songs that have more than a hundred thousand spins more than she has, so it's basically impossible. Top 10 would even be a stretch.
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Post by TheAzianWill on Aug 11, 2012 11:33:54 GMT -5
I feel like you say that for every song. I've only said that for Glad You Came, We Found Love, Somebody That I Used To Know, Call Me Maybe, Payphone and Lights. Each of those songs are competitive for this years #1 spot.
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Post by josh on Aug 11, 2012 11:35:46 GMT -5
6 songs is still a lot. But those are all big songs so it's not like you said something silly. :)
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Lozzy
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Post by Lozzy on Aug 11, 2012 11:52:28 GMT -5
I feel like you say that for every song. I've only said that for Glad You Came, We Found Love, Somebody That I Used To Know, Call Me Maybe, Payphone and Lights. Each of those songs are competitive for this years #1 spot. I know, though I really don't think "Lights" is in competition. I can't remember if it was "Give Me Everything" or "Party Rock Anthem" that made #1 of last year, but both those songs peaked in July and were massive hits. "Lights" is peaking in August and really isn't on the same level as those two songs. If we'd had a shortage of huge songs recently or nothing coming up the chart, then maybe I could see stations extending play for "Lights", but neither is the case. I expect it to be between "Glad You Came", "Somebody That I Used To Know" and "Call Me Maybe". I'd say "Call Me Maybe" is probably looking most likely.
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Post by TheAzianWill on Aug 11, 2012 12:03:07 GMT -5
I know, though I really don't think "Lights" is in competition. I can't remember if it was "Give Me Everything" or "Party Rock Anthem" that made #1 of last year, but both those songs peaked in July and were massive hits. "Lights" is peaking in August and really isn't on the same level as those two songs. If we'd had a shortage of huge songs recently or nothing coming up the chart, then maybe I could see stations extending play for "Lights", but neither is the case. I expect it to be between "Glad You Came", "Somebody That I Used To Know" and "Call Me Maybe". I'd say "Call Me Maybe" is probably looking most likely. If this song holds 4 weeks at #1, at an average airplay of 13,900 for the next 4 weeks after this week that'll sum to a total of 55,600 plays for the next 4 weeks which will net a total 198,600 plays YTD by the third week of September before Lights starts falling significantly which would make Ellie Goulding competitive for song of the year. I think that Ellie would catch up to Carly to be competitive for the Year-End countdown where the numbers might come up closer than what is visible with the current YTD numbers now. The numbers are still too close to call right now, there needs to be a bit more clarity, because things are looking really close on the Year To Date Chart.
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nick64
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Post by nick64 on Aug 11, 2012 12:32:01 GMT -5
I know, though I really don't think "Lights" is in competition. I can't remember if it was "Give Me Everything" or "Party Rock Anthem" that made #1 of last year, but both those songs peaked in July and were massive hits. "Lights" is peaking in August and really isn't on the same level as those two songs. If we'd had a shortage of huge songs recently or nothing coming up the chart, then maybe I could see stations extending play for "Lights", but neither is the case. I expect it to be between "Glad You Came", "Somebody That I Used To Know" and "Call Me Maybe". I'd say "Call Me Maybe" is probably looking most likely. If this song holds 4 weeks at #1, at an average airplay of 13,900 for the next 4 weeks after this week that'll sum to a total of 55,600 plays for the next 4 weeks which will net a total 198,600 plays YTD by the third week of September before Lights starts falling significantly which would make Ellie Goulding competitive for song of the year. I think that Ellie would catch up to Carly to be competitive for the Year-End countdown where the numbers might come up closer than what is visible with the current YTD numbers now. The numbers are still too close to call right now, there needs to be a bit more clarity, because things are looking really close on the Year To Date Chart. I really doubt Lights will average 13900 spins for the next few weaks. It's been having fairly small gains this last week. This will most likely be its peak week. Next week should see a small loss (~100-400 spins) as usual, followed by crashing. Just because it will most likely stay #1 does not mean it will retain its heavy spins. Lights does have the advantage of being on the chart almost the whole year, but I honestly think it won't be enough. Call Me Maybe, Somebody That I Used to Know, and Glad You Came were just too big this year.
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Post by TheAzianWill on Aug 12, 2012 19:42:36 GMT -5
I really doubt Lights will average 13900 spins for the next few weaks. It's been having fairly small gains this last week. This will most likely be its peak week. Next week should see a small loss (~100-400 spins) as usual, followed by crashing. Just because it will most likely stay #1 does not mean it will retain its heavy spins. Lights does have the advantage of being on the chart almost the whole year, but I honestly think it won't be enough. Call Me Maybe, Somebody That I Used to Know, and Glad You Came were just too big this year. This song is still rising, and will probably rise for another week or 2 13900 spins shouldn't be counted out and a steady fall may propel Lights to be competitive for the song of the year, don't count Ellie out yet!
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nick64
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Post by nick64 on Aug 12, 2012 21:55:22 GMT -5
I really doubt Lights will average 13900 spins for the next few weaks. It's been having fairly small gains this last week. This will most likely be its peak week. Next week should see a small loss (~100-400 spins) as usual, followed by crashing. Just because it will most likely stay #1 does not mean it will retain its heavy spins. Lights does have the advantage of being on the chart almost the whole year, but I honestly think it won't be enough. Call Me Maybe, Somebody That I Used to Know, and Glad You Came were just too big this year. This song is still rising, and will probably rise for another week or 2 13900 spins shouldn't be counted out and a steady fall may propel Lights to be competitive for the song of the year, don't count Ellie out yet! I'm not counting her out for year end #1, but her chances aren't very likely. Her bullet this last week was +292 and is reducing. Even if it does have a small positive bullet next week, which is unlikely because huge hits just don't stall that long, I am 100% sure it will be in the negatives two weeks from now (quote me now ). An average of 13900 for the next two weeks is a good estimate, but not four weeks.
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Post by TheAzianWill on Aug 12, 2012 23:23:07 GMT -5
I'm not counting her out for year end #1, but her chances aren't very likely. Her bullet this last week was +292 and is reducing. Even if it does have a small positive bullet next week, which is unlikely because huge hits just don't stall that long, I am 100% sure it will be in the negatives two weeks from now (quote me now ). An average of 13900 for the next two weeks is a good estimate, but not four weeks. Anything can be a possibility here, Ellie can possibly pull a Call Me Maybe or Payphone where she can stall at an average of 13900 plays for the next 4 weeks. Unfortunately I don't have a previous track record of her songs yet to go by, so it's all speculation at this point :)
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Aug 13, 2012 17:49:55 GMT -5
Lights debuts at #37 on Latin Pop songs.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Aug 14, 2012 10:18:43 GMT -5
This song will not be the #1 song for the year. It peaked way too late in the year for that to happen. And, I believe, this song will drop rather 'regularly' on its way to recurrent-land.
I now have to turn the station whenever this song comes on. I am SO sick of it. I heard it last October and now her voice is just irritating to me.
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Acid Eyes
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Post by Acid Eyes on Aug 29, 2012 17:25:58 GMT -5
Once again, the queen has been overthrown.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2012 23:00:00 GMT -5
^Looks like Ellie just enjoyed it too much the first time around.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2012 23:51:29 GMT -5
Year-end #1 isn't even a possibility. With it peaking/already peaked, it's still 79,171 spins behind the year-end #1. It's just not going to happen. Would I like it to happen? Of course, but there are so many other songs ahead of her that it just won't happen. Maybe if it peaked earlier in the year, but as of now, it's not a possibility for year-end #1.
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Aug 30, 2012 0:00:53 GMT -5
This song tops the 3 million mark in the U.S. this week.
Now more importantly, when will "Anything Could Happen" take off? They should send the song about a month from now to radio.
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Keelzit
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Post by Keelzit on Sept 2, 2012 8:23:19 GMT -5
This song never gets old. I think I like the original version more now that I gave it another chance
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Post by TheAzianWill on Sept 9, 2012 22:01:12 GMT -5
Year To Date Ellie Goulding is quickly closing the gap between her and The Wanted, #1 song of the year isn't out of possibility, should break 200,000 plays next week no matter what!
13 ELLIE GOULDING Lights 191,985
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Post by themagic on Sept 10, 2012 13:36:51 GMT -5
Year-end #1 isn't even a possibility. With it peaking/already peaked, it's still 79,171 spins behind the year-end #1. It's just not going to happen. Would I like it to happen? Of course, but there are so many other songs ahead of her that it just won't happen. Maybe if it peaked earlier in the year, but as of now, it's not a possibility for year-end #1. Kind of surprised The Wanted is 1# atm. I've heard We Are Young and Somebody That I Used To Know A LOT more on the radio.
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