raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Dec 1, 2019 20:00:08 GMT -5
Just rankings today feeling pretty sick today. Sorry. Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” 2. Old Dominion “One Man Band” 3. Thomas Rhett “Remember You Young” 4. Keith Urban “We Were” 5-7. Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads” 5-7. Lady Antebellum “What If I Never Get Over You” 5-7. Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” 8-9. Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber “10,000 Hours” 8-9. Kenny Chesney “Tip Of My Tongue” 10. Chris Janson “Good Vibes” (Last week) 11. Sam Hunt “Kinfolks” 12-13. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” 12-13. Jason Aldean “We Back” 14. Kane Brown “Homesick” 15. Maren Morris “The Bones” 16. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” 17. Luke Bryan “What She Wants Tonight” 18-20. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” 18-20. Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins “Hell Right” 18-20. Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” 21-23. Brett Young “Catch” 21-23. Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” 21-23. Jake Owen “Homemade” 24. Ryan Hurd “To a T” 25. Riley Green “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” 26-27. Travis Denning “After A Few” 26-27. Scotty McCreery “In Between” 28. Gabby Barrett “I Hope” 29-30. Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town” 29-30. LoCash “One Big Country Song” 31. Michael Ray “Her World Or Mine” 32-33. Eric Church “Monsters” 32-33. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” 34-36. Gone West “What Could’ve Been” 34-36. Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” 34-36. Morgan Wallen “Chasin You” 37. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” 38-40. Carrie Underwood “Drinking Alone” 38-40. Billy Currigton “Details” 38-40. Chris Young “Drowning” 41-43. Miranda Lambert “It All Comes Out In The Wash” (last week) 41-43. Hootie & The Blowfish “Hold On” 41-43. Chase Rice “Lonely If You Are” 44-46. Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” 44-46. Justin Moore “Why We Drink” 44-46. Rayne Johnson “Front Seat” 47-50. Kip Moore “She’s Mine” 47-50. Ashley McBryde “One Night Standards” 47-50. Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You” 47-50. Jon Langston “Now You Know” 51. Eli Young Band “Break It In” 52. Dillon Carmichael “I’ll Do For You” 53-56. Caroline Jones “Chasin Me” 53-56. Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” 53-56. LANco “What I See” 53-56. Chris Lane “Big, Big Plans” 57-58. Runaway June “Head Over Heels” 57-58. Teddy Robb “I Really Shouldn’t Drink Around You” 59-60. Thompson Square “Masterpiece” 59-60. Granger Smith “That’s Why I Love Dirt Roads” (New!)
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Dec 1, 2019 21:08:33 GMT -5
29-30. LoCash “Ring On Every Finger” I know their chart runs are sllllooooowww but I do believe they're on a new single now, lol.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Dec 1, 2019 21:11:52 GMT -5
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Dec 1, 2019 21:16:50 GMT -5
29-30. LoCash “Ring On Every Finger” I know their chart runs are sllllooooowww but I do believe they're on a new single now, lol. Fixed. The radio was playing that song when I was typing so I had a bit of a mind fart.
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Dec 1, 2019 22:08:54 GMT -5
feel better
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Dec 3, 2019 12:52:49 GMT -5
I’m going to do a super early prediction!
1. Old Dominion - “One Man Band” 2. Luke Combs - “Even Though I’m Leaving” 3. Thomas Rhett - “Remember You Young” 4. Keith Urban - “We Were” 5. Dustin Lynch - “Ridin’ Roads” 6. Lady Antebellum - “What If I Never Get Over You” 7. Jon Pardi - “Heartache Medication” 8. Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - “10,000 Hours” 9. Kenny Chesney - “Tip Of My Tongue” 10. Sam Hunt - “Kinfolks” 11. Jimmie Allen - “Make Me Want To” 12. Maren Morris - “The Bones” 13. Jason Aldean - “We Back” 14. Kane Brown - “Homesick” 15. Jordan Davis - “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” 16. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton - “Dive Bar” 17. Luke Bryan - “What She Wants Tonight” 18. Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins - “Hell Right” 19. Ingrid Andress - “More Hearts Than Mine” 20. Brett Young - “Catch” 21. Kelsea Ballerini - “Homecoming Queen” 22. Jake Owen - “Homemade” 23. Riley Green - “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” 24. Ryan Hurd - “To A T” 25. Travis Denning - “After A Few” 26. Scotty McCreery - “In Between” 27. Gabby Barrett - “I Hope” 28. LOCASH - “One Big Country Song” 29. Trisha Yearwood - “Every Girl In This Town” 30. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice - “I Hope You’re Happy Now” 31. Michael Ray - “Her World Or Mine” 32. Eric Church - “Monsters” 33. Morgan Wallen - “Chasin You” 34. Caylee Hammack - “Family Tree” 35. Florida-Georgia Line - “Blessings” 36. Carrie Underwood - “Drinking Alone” 37. Gone West - “What Could’ve Been 38. Chase Rice - “Lonely If You Are” 39. Chris Young - “Drowning” 40. Billy Currington - “Details” 41. Hootie & The Blowfish - “Hold On” 42. Ashley McBryde - “One Night Standards” 43. Justin Moore - “Why We Drink” 44. Rayne Johnson - “Front Seat” 45. Maddie & Tae - “Die From A Broken Heart” 46. Rodney Atkins - “Thank God For You” 47. Chris Janson - “Done” 48. Eli Young Band - “Break It In” 49. Kip Moore - “She’s Mine” 50. Dillon Carmichael - “I Do For You” 51. Jon Langston - “Now You Know” 52. Granger Smith - “That’s Why I Love Dirt Roads” 53. Mitchell Tenpenny & Seaforth - “Anything She Says” 54. Lauren Alaina - “Getting Good” 55. LANCO - “What I See” 56. Runaway June - “Head Over Heels” 57. Matt Stell - “Everywhere But On” 58. Caroline Jones - “Chasin You’” 59. Thompson Square - “Masterpiece” 60. Jameson Rodgers - “Some Girls”
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Dec 8, 2019 18:16:56 GMT -5
Slowdown week. Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Old Dominion “One Man Band” 2. Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” 3. Thomas Rhett “Remember You Young” 4. Keith Urban “We Were” 5. Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads” 6-7. Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” 6-7. Lady Antebellum “What If I Never Get Over You” 8. Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber “10,000 Hours” 9. Sam Hunt “Kinfolks” 10. Kenny Chesney “Tip Of My Tongue” (last week) 11-12. Jason Aldean “We Back” 11-12. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” 13. Maren Morris “The Bones” 14. Kane Brown “Homesick” 15. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” (last week?) (25% chance of going recurrent) 16. Luke Bryan “What She Wants Tonight” 17. Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” 18. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” (last week?) (40% chance of going recurrent) 19. Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins “Hell Right” 20. Brett Young “Catch” 21. Jake Owen “Homemade” 22. Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” 23. Riley Green “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” 24. Ryan Hurd “To A T” (last week?) (45% chance of going recurrent) 25. Travis Denning “After A Few” 26. Scotty McCreery “In Between” 27-29. LoCash “One Big Country Song” 27-29. Gabby Barrett “I Hope” 27-29. Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town” 30-31. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” 30-31. Michael Ray “Her World Or Mine” 32-33. Morgan Wallen “Chasin’ You” 32-33. Eric Church “Monsters” 34-35. Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” 34-35. Gone West “What Could’ve Been” 36. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” 37. Billy Currington “Details” 38-39. Carrie Underwood “Drinking Alone” 38-39. Chase Rice “Lonely If You Are” 40-41. Chris Young “Drowning” 40-41. Hootie & The Blowfish “Hold On” (Last week?) 42. Rayne Johnson “Front Seat” 43. Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” 44-45. Eli Young Band “Break It In” 44-45. Justin Moore “Why We Drink” 46-49. Ashley McBryde “One Night Standards” 46-49. Jon Langston “Now You Know” 46-49. Dillon Carmichael “I’ll Do For You” 46-49. Chris Janson “Done” 50-51. Caroline Jones “Chasin’ Me” 50-51. Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You” 52-57. Matt Stell “Everywhere But On” (New!) 52-57. Runaway June “Head Over Heels” 52-57. Kip Moore “She’s Mine” 52-57. Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” 52-57. LANco “What I See” 52-57. Granger Smith “That’s Why I Love Dirt Roads” 58-59. Jameson Rodgers “Some Girls” 58-59. Thompson Square “Masterpiece” (last week?) 60. Chris Lane “Big, Big Plans” (Re-entry!)
New and Active Section Haley & Michaels “Hail Mary” Brantley Gilbert “Fire’t Up” Miranda Lambert “Bluebird” Mitchell Tenpenny featuring Seaforth “Anything She Says” Lindsay Ell “I Don’t Love You” Thomas Rhett “Christmas In The Country”
Going Recurrent Or Drop Outs Miranda Lambert “It All Comes Out In The Wash” Peak: #14 Weeks: 20 Little Big Town “Over Drinking” Peak: #60 Weeks: 1
Commentary Unlike last week where there was a good amount of commentary, I just didn’t have time to say any of them. This week there is not a lot to say in the charts. With Luke Combs and Old Dominion still having absolute mega hits (Old Dominion getting their first week at #1) and no one below them sans maybe Kenny Chesney giving up (even then he is falling pretty slow so far). The charts are in a standstill overall.
So for starters the entire the Top 5 remains completely intact and in the same spot except a flip for the top two spots. Important note to make: Keith Urban is max spinning this week with “We Were” despite saying in the same spot for another week, so look for him to freefall next week and break open the charts a bit more. Kenny Chesney “Tip Of My Tongue” looks to be one of the songs bounced out by the chart jam as the song is slowly starting to fade out of the Top 10.
Maren Morris while affected by the chart logjam is still moving up the chart and taking names as “The Bones” should pass fellow Sony song “Homesick”, also the other female song in the Top 20 in “More Hearts Than Mine” by Ingrid Andress should also have a good week. Absolutely horrific week for Blake Shelton as both “Dive Bar” and “Hell Right” lose a lot of traction, same with Jordan Davis and his current single. For “Dive Bar” and “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” I do think there is a chance both, one of them or neither go recurrent, since the losses are pretty big and both are over 20 weeks the good news for both of those songs is that the labels are behind both songs so I can easily see both getting grace weeks.
Solid weeks for Brett Young, Jake Owen, Travis Denning, and LoCash with their latest singles “Catch”, “Homemade”, “After A Few”, and “One Big Country Song”, Ryan Hurd looks about to wave the white flag as “To A T” has taken a good brunt of the slowdown this week as he loses traction. Another decent week for Gabby Barrett and in a funny coincidence it looks like newly married couple Carly Pearce (with Lee Brice) and Michael Ray look to compete for the last spot in the Top 30 as “I Hope You’re Happy Now” continues to do well up the charts.
Carrie Underwood should re-enter the Top 40 with “Drinking Alone” as Hootie & The Blowfish struggle with “Hold On”. After a bit of a setback last week I would expect “Die From A Broken Heart” by Maddie & Tae to get a new peak on Billboard. Chris Jaonson should enter the Top 50 in his second week with “Done” and possibly scoring her first Top 50 song on Billboard should be newcomer Caroline Jones with “Chasin’ Me” as Rodney Atkins and Kip Moore get the brunt of the slowdown in the 40s and 50s this week. Matt Stell debuts with his second single “Everywhere But On”. Small but decent gains for Runaway June and their latest single “Head Over Heels” and Chris Lane looks to edge out the latest singles from Little Big Town and Teddy Robb for the last spot in the Top 60.
Songs I see Leaving Soon Keith Urban “We Were” Kenny Chesney “Tip Of My Tongue” Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” Ryan Hurd “To A T” Thompson Square “Masterpiece”
Songs In Danger Jason Aldean “We Back” Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” (age of the song) Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” (just due to this awful week) Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town” Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” Hootie & The Blowfish “Hold On”
Songs I See Debuting/Returning Soon Little Big Town “Over Drinking” Teddy Robb “Really Shouldn’t Drink Around You” Lindsay Ell “I Don’t Love You” Miranda Lambert “Bluebird” Brantley Gilbert “Fire’t Up”
Closing Thoughts Having a week like this is a blessing and a curse. It is a freaking curse due to the fact that so many songs are pretty much stagnant in terms of position and gains, but it is a blessing as this week really showed which songs country radio is excited about (Carly Pearce, Maren Morris, Gabby Barrett) and which songs country radio is wanting to start phasing out (Kenny Chesney, Ryan Hurd, Hootie & The Blowfish potentially). With Kenny Chesney probably on his way out and Keith Urban entering freefall I am personally excited to see what next week brings
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Dec 8, 2019 19:40:07 GMT -5
agreed raylatch98 charts need a good housecleaning
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Dec 15, 2019 13:30:23 GMT -5
1. Thomas Rhett - “Remember You Young” 2. Luke Combs - “Even Though I’m Leaving” 3. Old Dominion - “One Man Band” 4. Dustin Lynch - “Ridin’ Roads” 5. Lady Antabellum - “What If I Never Get Over You” 6. Jon Pardi - “Heartache Medication” 7. Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - “10,000 Hours” 8. Kenny Chesney - “Tip Of My Tongue” 9. Keith Urban - “We Were” 10. Sam Hunt - “Kinfolks
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Dec 15, 2019 20:14:07 GMT -5
Charts are at a bit of a stand still but the damn seems about to break. Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Thomas Rhett “Remember You Young” 2. Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” 3. Old Dominion “One Man Band” 4. Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads” 5-7. Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber “10,000 Hours” 5-7. Lady Antebellum “What If I Never Get Over You” 5-7. Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” 8. Sam Hunt “Kinfolks” 9. Kenny Chesney “Tip Of My Tongue” (last week?) 10-11. Maren Morris “The Bones” 10-11. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” (last week?) 12. Jason Aldean “We Back” 13. Keith Urban “We Were” (last week) 14. Luke Bryan “What She Wants Tonight” 15. Kane Brown “Homesick” 16. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” 17-18. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” 17-18. Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins “Hell Right” 19-20. Brett Young “Catch” 19-20. Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” 21. Jake Owen “Homemade” 22. Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” 23-24. Ryan Hurd “To A T” 23-24. Riley Green “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” 25. Travis Denning “After A Few” 26. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” 27. Gabby Barrett “I Hope” 28-30. LoCash “One Big Country Song” 28-30. Scotty McCreery “In Between” (25% chance of going recurrent) 28-30. Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town” 31-32. Eric Church “Monsters” 31-32. Michael Ray “Her World Or Mine” 33. Morgan Wallen “Chasin’ You” 34. Gone West “What Could’ve Been” 35. Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” 36. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” 37. Billy Currington “Details” 38. Carrie Underwood “Drinking Alone” 39. Chris Young “Drowning” 40-44. Hootie & The Blowfish “Hold On” 40-44. Jon Langston “Now You Know” 40-44. Chase Rice “Lonely If You Are” (35% chance of going recurrent) 40-44. Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” 40-44. Justin Moore “Why We Drink” 45. Ashley McBryde “One Night Standards” 46. Rayne Johnson “Front Seat” 47-48. Eli Young Band “Break It In” 47-48. Kip Moore “She’s Mine” 49. Dillon Carmichael “I’ll Do For You” 50-55. Chris Janson “Done” 50-55. Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” 50-55. Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You” (last week?) 50-55. Runaway June “Head Over Heels” 50-55. LANco “What I See” 50-55. Matt Stell “Everywhere But On” 56. Jameson Rodgers “Some Girls” 57. Caroline Jones “Chasin’ Me” (last week?) 58. Granger Smith “That’s Why I Love Dirt Roads” 59. Brantley Gilbert “Fire’t Up” (New!) 60. Little Big Town “Over Drinking” New and Active Section Haley & Michaels “Hail Mary” Miranda Lambert “Bluebird” Lindsay Ell “I Don’t Love You” Morgan Evans “Diamonds” Mitchell Tenpenny featuring Seaforth “Anything She Says” Chris Lane “Big Big Plans” Going Recurrent Or Drop Outs Thompson Square “Masterpiece” Weeks: 3 Peak #57 Commentary This is a week best described as a bunch of moving parts but not much leaving, until next week that is.
Starting off, Thomas Rhett sneaks into the #1 spot with “Remember You Young”, and if I were the label, I would hold on for at least another week into the holiday season as the gap between Thomas Rhett and the nearest #1 challenger (“Ridin Roads” by Dustin Lynch) is a pretty big gap to hold on for a second week. Luke Combs and Old Dominion keep slipping on the charts with the latter falling a bit faster, but expect “One Man Band” and “Even Though I’m Leaving to be in the Top 10 for quite a while.
Dan + Shay & Justin Beiber really hit the accelerator this week as “10,000 Hours” looks to pose a huge threat to pass Jon Pardi and Lady Antebellum with their latest singles and really hamper both of “Heartache Medication” and “What If I Never Get Over You” Billboard #1 prospects. Sam Hunt sneaks by a struggling Kenny Chesney as “Tip Of My Tongue” continues to struggle and lose more and more traction overall.
With Keith Urban in a big freefall (“We Were” will be out next week). That leaves a spot open in the Top 10 and with Jimmie Allen making a sudden surge (curious if this means his song will give up this coming week) and Maren Morris naturally posing huge gains with “The Bones” it should be a close finish between the two of them. Jason Aldean continues to spin his wheels just outside the Top 10 as “We Back” is starting to emerge as an overall weak link in the Top 20. Luke Bryan sees a great week as he enters the Top 15 as Kane Brown slips back yet another spot, despite still posing decent gains himself with “Homesick”.
After a solid week compared to her peers, Ingrid Andress sees a setback with debut single “More Hearts Than Mine”, and despite getting his bullet back Jordan Davis is still not looking too hot with “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot”. Great gains however for Brett Young and Blake Shelton/Trace Adkins with their latest singles.
Outside the Top 20, Jake Owen continues to gain well and look for “Homemade” to replace “We Were” in the Top 20 next week. Kelsea Ballerini continues to move slow as “Homecoming Queen” has rather subpar callout scores. Ryan Hurd has a bit of a rebound week with “To a T” after a few weeks of struggling and Riley Green has a bit of a cooldown week on the other end. Travis Denning continues to pose solid gains despite staying at #25 for a third week in a row. There might be enough left in the tank for Travis Denning to squeeze out a Top 20 finish. On the other end Scotty McCreery is starting to lose steam as “In Between” starts to spin its wheels. On the other end Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” and to a lesser extent Gabby Barrett “I Hope” have very strong gains as Carly Pearce scores her fourth Top 30 single on Billboard in her 10th week.
Good weeks for Eric Church and Morgan Wallen as Michael Ray stumbles out of the Top 30 with “Her World Or Mine”. Slow weeks for Gone West, Caylee Hammack, Florida Georgia Line, Chris Young, and Carrie Underwood. The last spot in the Top 40 is a very tightly knit battle between Chase Rice who really struggled to gain back audience this week and is in danger of going recurrent, Hootie & The Blowfish who had a flat week of gains this week with “Hold On”, decent weeks could lead to Maddie & Tae or Justin Moore getting into the Top 40 as they are in the hunt to sneak into the Top 40. Also an unexpected great week for “Now You Know” by Jon Langston could lead to him stumbling into the Top 40.
In the 40s and 50s. Solid weeks for Chris Janson, Matt Stell, Lauren Alaina, and Jameson Rodgers. Unfortunately for Rodney Atkins and especially Caroline Jones both their songs “Thank God For You” and “Chasin Me” respectively, have awful weeks. Brantley Gilbert looks to debut this week with his new single “Fire’t Up”. Songs I see Leaving Soon Keith Urban “We Were” Kenny Chesney “Tip Of My Tongue” Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” Ryan Hurd “To A T” Scotty McCreery “In Between” Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You” Caroline Jones "Chasin' Me"
Songs In Danger Jason Aldean “We Back” Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town” Caylee Hammack “Family Tree”
Songs I See Debuting/Returning Soon Teddy Robb “Really Shouldn’t Drink Around You” Lindsay Ell “I Don’t Love You” Miranda Lambert “Bluebird” Morgan Evans “Diamonds”
Closing Thoughts With Keith Urban all but a lock to go recurrent and many songs teetering on the edge to dropping out, we should hopefully finally get a mini house cleaning next week. Here’s to hoping, and as an added bonus the female songs keep doing well in Maren Morris, Carly Pearce, Gabby Barrett and other female songs keep sneaking through the charts Kelsea Ballerini, Ingrid Andress, Lauren Alaina, and Runaway June.
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Dec 17, 2019 16:08:57 GMT -5
Does anyone remember around what day of December every song begins to lose spins? Is it right on Christmas Day or before? And how long does it last? I always feel like it starts Christmas Eve but can’t remember.
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recordyear
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Post by recordyear on Dec 17, 2019 18:05:37 GMT -5
Does anyone remember around what day of December every song begins to lose spins? Is it right on Christmas Day or before? And how long does it last? I always feel like it starts Christmas Eve but can’t remember. If I remember correctly, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
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recordyear
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Post by recordyear on Dec 19, 2019 8:34:29 GMT -5
I will upload the full Billboard chart with audience levels later but since Remember You Young only has 0.1M audience more than Even Though I'm Leaving this week, I would expect the latter to go back to #1 next week.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Dec 21, 2019 22:50:30 GMT -5
I will be doing the predictions tomorrow so stay tuned as despite the holidays their is some movement and stuff to discuss. With both Kenny Chesney and Keith Urban going recurrent this does loosen up the chart a bit, also helping is Blake Shelton and Trace Adkins seemingly in freefall mode, and hopefully by mid to late January we see a decent chunk of the songs in the Top 60 give up (prime candidates being Jimmie Allen, Garth Brooks/Blake Shelton, Ryan Hurd, Scotty McCreery, Trisha Yearwood, and Caylee Hammack)
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Dec 22, 2019 17:16:32 GMT -5
The charts unwind a bit this week but the mood is still pretty slow overall. Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” 2-4. Thomas Rhett “Remember You Young” 2-4. Old Dominion “One Man Band” 2-4. Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads” 5. Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber “10,000 Hours” 6. Lady Antebellum “What If I Never Get Over You” 7. Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” 8. Sam Hunt “Kinfolks” 9. Maren Morris “The Bones” 10. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” 11. Kane Brown “Homesick” 12. Jason Aldean “We Back” 13. Luke Bryan “What She Wants Tonight” 14. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” 15-17. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” 15-17. Brett Young “Catch” 15-17. Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” 18. Jake Owen “Homemade” 19-20. Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins “Hell Right” 19-20. Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” 21-22. Riley Green “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” 21-22. Ryan Hurd “To A T” 23-24. Travis Denning “After A Few” 23-24. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” 25-26. Gabby Barrett “I Hope” 25-26. Scotty McCreery “In Between” 27. Eric Church “Monsters” 28. LoCash “One Big Country Song” 29. Morgan Wallen “Chasin’ You” 30-32. Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town” 30-32. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” 30-32. Michael Ray “Her World Or Mine” 33. Gone West “What Could’ve Been” 34. Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” 36. Billy Currington “Details” 35. Carrie Underwood “Drinking Alone” 38. Chase Rice “Lonely If You Are” 37. Chris Young “Drowning” 39. Justin Moore “Why We Drink” 40-42. Ashley McBryde “One Night Standards” 40-42. Eli Young Band “Break It In” 40-42. Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” 43. Rayne Johnson “Front Seat” 44-45. Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You” 44-45. Kip Moore “She’s Mine” 46-47. Jon Langston “Now You Know” 46-47. Thomas Rhett “Christmas In The Country” 48-49. Chris Janson “Done” 48-49. Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” 50-51. Dillon Carmichael “I’ll Do For You” 50-51. Miranda Lambert “Bluebird” (New!) 52-53. Runaway June “Head Over Heels” 52-53. Little Big Town “Over Drinking” 54. Matt Stell “Everywhere But On” 55. Jameson Rodgers “Some Girls” 56-60. Brantley Gilbert “Fire’t Up” (New!) 56-60. Lindsay Ell “I Don’t Love You” (New!) 56-60. Chris Lane “Big, Big Plans” 56-60. Granger Smith “That’s Why I Love Dirt Roads” 56-60. Keith Urban “I’ll Be Your Santa Tonight” (New!)
New and Active Section Thomas Rhett & Jon Pardi “Beer Can’t Fix” Mitchell Tenpenny & Seaforth “Anything She Says” Thomas Rhett “Christmas Song” Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani “Nobody But You” Morgan Evans “Diamonds”
Going Recurrent Or Drop Outs Kenny Chesney “Tip Of My Tongue” Peak #8 Weeks: 23 Keith Urban “We Were” Peak #4 Weeks: 31 LANco “What I See” Peak #53 Weeks: 5 Teddy Robb “I Really Shouldn’t Drink Around You” Peak #58 Weeks: 2
Commentary Well despite the holidays slowing the charts down, we should have some movement this week as the charts get a bit more loose with Christmas music invading and many songs in freefall or close to it.
Obviously with the holiday slowdown means an overall slowness at the top of the chart and with that Luke Combs should sneak a fourth week at #1 before Dustin Lynch takes over for the next couple of weeks. All 3 of Luke Combs, Old Dominion, and Thomas Rhett are in freefall mode and “Remember You Young” is definitely the one falling the fastest even if it is a pretty slow fall. “One Man Band” and “Even Though I’m Leaving” continue their very slow descents down the charts. Look for “Ridin Roads” to easily spend the next two weeks after this week at #1.
Dan + Shay/Justin Beiber really surge this week and should sneak ahead of Lady Antebellum and Jon Pardi as I can easily see “10,000 Hours” spending a few weeks at #1 once Dustin Lynch is done and block both Lady Antebellum and Jon Pardi at #1 on Billboard with their recent singles (“What If I Never Get Over You” and “Heartache Medication” respectively). Sam Hunt continues to gain well, and look for two new Top 10 entries replacing Kenny Chesney and Keith Urban. First up is Maren Morris with her fast rising single “The Bones”. Do not be shocked if this song spends multiple weeks at #1 and potentially block Sam Hunt from #1, which I see as a very legit possibility. The other new entry to Top 10 is the sophomore single from Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” in his 48th week. With this song being so ancient I don’t really see the path to a Top 5 peak, and I would not be shocked if the label abandons this song in January.
Below the Top 10, Jason Aldean continues to struggle overall due to poor callout scores as Kane Brown “Homesick” looks to be the next song to enter the Top 10 once there is an opening. Luke Bryan and Garth/Blake set new peaks as both begin to eye the Top 10 as well. The last slot in the Top 15 looks to be a close finish between Brett Young, Jordan Davis, and Ingrid Andress. All 3 of which has had pretty solid weeks and look to be the biggest benefactors when the charts loosen up a bit in January. Won’t be shocked to see all 3 of them get at least Top 5 peaks for their latest singles. Jake Owen is the first of two new arrivals into the Top 20 as “Homemade” continues to do well. “Homecoming Queen” is the other song entering the Top 20 on Billboard this week, however unlike Jake Owen, Kelsea Ballerini has really hit a brick wall with her single. However Kelsea Ballerini is at least hanging in there as the same can’t be said for “Hell Right” by Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins as “Hell Right” gives up with poor callout and the high buzz for the new Gwen Stefani duet Blake Shelton has probably being the main reasons for this song’s soon departure.
Riley Green and Ryan Hurd are knocking on the door of the Top 20. I do think Top 20 is the max “To a T” can achieve on the charts, but Riley Green is definitely in it for the long haul. Carly Pearce/Lee Brice surge this week as “I Hope You’re Happy Now” is really taking off and is one of the most dominant songs on the charts in terms of gains. Newcomer Travis Denning continues to inch closer to the Top 20, the last spot in the Top 25 will go to either Gabby Barrett or Scotty McCreery as “In Between” has an unexpected surge this week on the chart, that being said Gabby Barrett continues to do very well as “I Hope” is still a very solid gainer on the charts. Same can’t be said for LoCash who struggles this week despite the double recurrent, elsewhere Eric Church and Morgan Wallen look to enter the Top 30 this week with the followup to their latest #1 singles, and depending on how it goes one of Michael Ray or Florida Georgia Line could get in as Trisha Yearwood has all but stalled with “Every Girl In This Town”.
Besides Carrie Underwood with “Drinking Alone” and Chris Young with “Drowning none of the other songs in the 30s moved much, even if it does seem like Caylee Hammack is probably on borrowed time, as she is really struggling to gain any traction gain wise. The new arrivals to the Top 40 should be Justin Moore with “Why We Drink”, and one of Ashley McBryde, Maddie & Tae, and a little shockingly Eli Young Band.
In the 40s it is a lot of jockeying for positions overall as no one outside of the Thomas Rhett Christmas song really move anywhere in terms of gains, out of all of them it does look like Rodney Atkins and Lauren Alaina had decent weeks. Dillon Carmichael did struggle and the red hot new Miranda Lambert single “Bluebird” debuts and depending upon how Dillon Carmichael finishes Miranda Lambert should score a Top 50 peak.
Little Big Town have a decent week and set a new peak with “Over Drinking” but the future is still bleak overall, and thanks to audience juggernaut KKBQ the newest single from Lindsay Ell should debut in “I Don’t Love You” as well as Keith Urban’s new Christmas song. Also look for Brantley Gilbert to debut with his latest single. With all these debuts it looks like last week’s bottom two songs in “What I See” by LANco and the debut single by Teddy Robb.
Songs I see Leaving Soon Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins “Hell Right” Ryan Hurd “To A T” Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town” Caylee Hammack “Family Tree”
Songs In Danger Jason Aldean “We Back Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen”
Songs I See Debuting/Returning Soon Morgan Evans “Diamonds” Thomas Rhett featuring “Beer Can’t Fix” Midland “Cheating Songs” Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani “Nobody But You”
Closing Thoughts Next week is the Christmas week so expect everyone sans the handful of Christmas songs to lose it’s bullet, with the week after being the bounce back week which is when the charts at least on Mediabase should begin to pick up a bit.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Dec 28, 2019 13:20:43 GMT -5
Oh because of Christmas music I am only doing the Top 30 to keep things simple and any commentary is talking about the non Christmas updates as a whole(so Tuesday's, and Friday through tomorrow's).
Next week with no Christmas music in the mix, and the charts starting back up officially, will be a full blown Top 60.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Dec 29, 2019 11:59:40 GMT -5
Only doing the Top 30 this week due to Christmas music.
Billboard Country Airplay Top 30 1. Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” 2-3. Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads” 2-3. Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber “10,000 Hours” 4. Lady Antebellum “What If I Never Get Over You” 5. Old Dominion “One Man Band” 6. Thomas Rhett “Remember You Young” 7. Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” 8. Maren Morris “The Bones” 9. Sam Hunt “Kinfolks” 10. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” 11. Kane Brown “Homesick” 12. Jason Aldean “We Back” 13. Luke Bryan “What She Wants Tonight” 14-15. Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” 14-15. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” 16-17. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” 16-17. Brett Young “Catch” 18. Jake Owen “Homemade” 19. Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” 20. Riley Green “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” 21-22. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” 21-22. Ryan Hurd “To A T” 23-24. Gabby Barrett “I Hope” 23-24. Travis Denning “After A Few” 25. Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins “Hell Right” 26. Scotty McCreery “In Between” 27. Eric Church “Monsters” 28. Morgan Wallen “Chasin’ You” 29. LoCash “One Big Country Song” 30-31. Gone West “What Could’ve Been” 30-31. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings”
New and Active Section Will Return Next Week
Going Recurrent Or Drop Outs Will Return Next Week
Commentary Like I said yesterday all commentary especially positive refers to the non Christmas updates this week. With that being said, let’s begin
So at the top for a second week in a row and a fifth week in total will be Luke Combs with “Even Though I’m Leaving”. I do think this will be his last week and that Dustin Lynch should sneak into #1 more than likely with “Ridin’ Roads”. Speaking of Dustin, he should move up to #2 this week as long as he stays ahead of Dan + Shay/Justin Beiber, that being said with next week being the push week for “Ridin’ Roads” I do think Fustin Lynch will hit #1 on Billboard. Lady Antebellum enters the Top 5 on Billboard for the first time in two and a half years. I do hope Lady Antebellum can score a Billboard #1 with “What If I Never Get Over You”, but the looming threat of “10,000 Hours” does make me a bit hesitant that Lady Antebellum will get the Billboard #1. Thomas Rhett and Old Dominion continue to fall, both should be on the chart next week, but beyond that remains uncertain. With Jon Pardi he is in even more trouble as he loses even more ground on “10,000 Hours”
Maren Morris continues to climb very well and passes Sam Hunt this week. Would not be shocked if Maren blocks “Kinfolks” from a Billboard #1 and spends multiple weeks herself (would be the first solo female to spend multiple weeks since Carrie Underwood in 2012 with “Blown Away”), Jimmie Allen stays at #10 and is beginning to spin his wheels.
Kane Brown moves ahead of a struggling Jason Aldean as “We Back” continues to remain just outside the Top 10. After gaining 4 spots last week, Ingrid Andress has another great week with “More Hearts Than Mine” and has a good chance to pass Garth Brooks/Blake Shelton who is also not looking great on the chart. Solid week for Kelsea Ballerini and Riley Green scores his second Top 20 with “I Wish Grandpas Never Died”.
Carly Pearce/Lee Brice look to be the next to enter the Top 20 with “I Hope You’re Happy Now”, very old songs from Travis Denning, LoCash, Scotty McCreery, and Ryan Hurd continue to remain in the 20s and look to hang in there for a Top 20 peak. While Blake Shelton/Trace Adkins give up and begins to freefall. New singles from Gabby Barrett, Eric Church, and Morgan Wallen continue to pose solid gains and progress. The last spot in the Top 30 looks to be close between Gone West and Florida Georgia Line as Michael Ray stumbles out the Top 30 for the second time.
Songs I see Leaving Soon Thomas Rhett “Remember You Young” Old Dominion “One Man Band” Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins “Hell Right” Ryan Hurd “To A T”
Songs In Danger Jason Aldean “We Back Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” LoCash "One Big Country Song"
Songs I See Debuting/Returning Soon Will return next week
Closing Thoughts Next week is the bounceback week where pretty much every song gains it’s bullet back. The good news is that next week at least on Mediabase songs should begin to go recurrent and the charts should pick back up.
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Jan 3, 2020 14:11:10 GMT -5
So on Mediabase, which of these songs will be removed Sunday night:
“We Were”, “Tip Of My Tongue”, “One Man Band”, “Remember You Young” and “Even Though I’m Leaving”. They all peaked on MB several weeks ago but I’m not sure what’ll actually be removed. I’m thinking Keith for sure and most likely OD & Thomas. Not sure about how many weeks Kenny has been officially without a bullet and if they will take Luke off yet. We will see!
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 3, 2020 15:37:22 GMT -5
So on Mediabase, which of these songs will be removed Sunday night: “We Were”, “Tip Of My Tongue”, “One Man Band”, “Remember You Young” and “Even Though I’m Leaving”. They all peaked on MB several weeks ago but I’m not sure what’ll actually be removed. I’m thinking Keith for sure and most likely OD & Thomas. Not sure about how many weeks Kenny has been officially without a bullet and if they will take Luke off yet. We will see! Kenny Chesney has been without a bullet since the week ending in December 9th so he should be gone this Sunday, one would think. Keith Urban lost his bullet the week ending of December 16th, so maybe he gets one more week and the other three look likely to this Sunday to have a bullet this week. That is my best guest, but the whole holiday thing with Mediabase and what goes recurrent is imo confusing as can be and is just a mess.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 5, 2020 14:51:38 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads” 2. Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” 3. Lady Antebellum “What If I Never Get Over You” 4. Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber “10,000 Hours” 5-6. Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” 5-6. Thomas Rhett “Remember You Young” (last week?) 7. Old Dominion “One Man Band” (last week?) 8. Maren Morris “The Bones” 9. Sam Hunt “Kinfolks” 10. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” 11. Kane Brown “Homesick” 12. Jason Aldean “We Back” 13. Luke Bryan “What She Wants Tonight” 14. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” 15-16. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” 15-16. Brett Young “Catch” 17-18. Jake Owen “Homemade” 17-18. Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” 19. Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” 20-21. Riley Green “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” 20-21. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” 22. Travis Denning “After A Few” 23. Ryan Hurd “To A T” (last week?) 24-25. Gabby Barrett “I Hope” 24-25. Morgan Wallen “Chasin’ You” 26. Scotty McCreery “In Between” 27-28. Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins “Hell Right” (last week) 27-28. Eric Church “Monsters” 29-30. LoCash “One Big Country Song” 29-30. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” 31. Michael Ray “One That Got Away” 32. Gone West “What Could’ve Been” 33-35. Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town” 33-35. Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” 33-35. Carrie Underwood “Drinking Alone” 36. Justin Moore “Why We Drink” 37-38. Billy Currington “Details” 37-38. Chase Rice “Lonely If You Are” 39. Chris Young “Drowning” 40-43. Thomas Rhett featuring Jon Pardi “Beer Can’t Fix” 40-43. Rayne Johnson “Front Seat” 40-43. Jon Langston “Now You Know” 40-43. Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” 44. Ashley McBryde “One Night Standards” 45-47. Chris Janson “Done” 45-47. Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You” 45-47. Hootie & The Blowfish “Hold On” (Re-Entry!) 48-49. Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” 48-49. Lindsay Ell “I Don’t Love You” 50. Eli Young Band “Break It In” 51. Kip Moore “She’s Mine” 52-55. Brantley Gilbert “Fire’t Up” 52-55. Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani “Nobody But You” (New!) 52-55. Miranda Lambert “Bluebird” 52-55. Jameson Rodgers “Some Girls” 56-57. Matt Stell “Everywhere But On” (Re-Entry!) 56-57. Granger Smith “That’s Why I Love Dirt Roads” (Re-Entry!) 58-59. Runaway June “Head Over Heels” 58-59. Dillon Carmichael “I’ll Do For You” 60. Little Big Town “Over Drinking” (Re-Entry!)
New and Active Section Chris Lane “Big, Big Plans” Teddy Robb “Really Shouldn’t Drink Around You” Mitchell Tenpenny featuring Seaforth “Anything She Says” Morgan Evans “Diamonds” Midland “Cheatin’ Songs” LANCO “What I See”
Going Recurrent Or Drop Outs Thomas Rhett “Christmas In The Country” Peak #38 Chris Janson “It Is Christmas” Peak #41 Runaway June “Sleigh Ride” Peak #45 Thomas Rhett “The Christmas Song” Peak #49 Chris Lane “BIg, Big Plans” Peak #58
Commentary Like with last week, Commentary is in regards to the updates that aren’t directly affected by holiday airplay in this case the massive gains earlier this week for the most part.
Look for Dustin Lynch to pick up his second straight #1 on Billboard with “Ridin’ Roads”, things look uncertain earlier this week, but “Ridin’ Roads” really pulled away the last couple of days away from “Even Though I’m Leaving” and should snatch the Billboard #1. Since Luke Combs has yet to announce a follow-up single, look for at least right now for “Even Though I’m Leaving” to remain in very high airplay for a long time. In preparation for their push for #1, Lady Antebellum has swapped places with Dan + Shay/Justin Beiber and the path is all clear for “What If I Never Get Over You” to hit #1 this time next week. Dan + Shay are still doing great and I still would not be shocked to see “10,000 Hours” block Jon Pardi and “Heartache Medication” from a Billboard #1 in a couple weeks. Speaking of which, out of all of the songs in the Top 10 that are being promoted, “Heartache Medication” was a bit underwhelming this week and is one of the weaker links in the Top 10.
The other weaker link in the Top 10 Sam Hunt with “Kinfolks” especially as Maren Morris looks to pull even farther away with “The Bones”. Despite nearing 50 weeks Jimmie Allen saw a good week again with “Make Me Want To”. I still don’t think the song is long for the Top 10 given its age, but maybe Stoney Creek can keep it alive for a few more weeks for a potential Top 5 peak.
Kane Brown continues to linger just outside the Top 10, but stands a good chance of entering next week depending if he passes Jimmie Allen and/or Old Dominion/Thomas Rhett go recurrent. Jason Aldean also stays put at #12 with “We Back”, however Luke Bryan keeps on chipping away at the gap between him and Aldean and may pass “We Back” before either song gets into the Top 10. Jordan Davis manages to get ahead of Garth Brooks/Blake Shelton as “Dive Bar” really struggled outside of the expected huge gains this week, and I could easily see Brett Young also pass them as well. After looking somewhat strong during the holiday break, Ingrid Andress really stumbled this week with “More Hearts ThanMine” and is starting the year off a bit underwhelming. Also off to a bit underwhelming start is Kelsea Ballerini with “Homecoming Queen” as she stays at #19 for another week. Riley Green and Carly Pearce/Lee Brice looks to be in a close finish for the last spot in the Top 20 as “I Hope You’re Happy Now” continues to look very strong on the chart and “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” is also looking very solid as well.
Travis Denning continues to near his first Top 20 as Ryan Hurd looks to be stalling out as “To a T’ is really stagnant. Morgan Wallen in his second week in the Top 30 for “Chasin’ You” looks to move into the Top 25. While this should be the last week for “Hell Right” on the charts. Trisha Yearwood continues to just stay afloat in the 30s as done Gone West, of course the latter has a bit more potential to do something on the chart. Great weeks for the latest singles by Chase Rice, Billy Currington, and Carrie Underwood while the new Thomas Rhett single featuring Jon Pardi “Beer Can’t Fix” looks to possibly enter the Top 40 in it’s second week.
I am gonna play it safe and assume Hootie & The Blowfish re-enters the chart, as new singles from Lindsay Ell, Lauren Alaina, and Chris Janson do well this week, while Kip Moore and Eli Young Band continue to flounder overall. Look for Matt TSell, Granger Smith, and Little Big Town to re-enter and for the new Blake Shelton/Gwen Stefani song “Nobody But You” to debut near the Top 50 as both Dillon Carmichael “I’ll Do For You” and Runaway June “Head Over Heels” see underwhelming gains this week.
Songs I see Leaving Soon Thomas Rhett “Remember You Young” Old Dominion “One Man Band” Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” Jason Aldean “We Back” Ryan Hurd “To A T” Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins “Hell Right Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town”
Songs In Danger Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” Caylee Hammack “Family Tree”
Songs I See Debuting/Returning Soon Chris Lane “Big, Big Plans” Teddy Robb “Really Shouldn’t Drink Around You” Morgan Evans “Diamonds” Midland “Cheatin’ Songs”
Closing Thoughts Lots of shifting parts this week, with next week being the first full blown normal week, I am very excited to see how a lot of these songs do as we head into the new year and see who lasts. Hopefully we get a good amount of recurrents next week as well.
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jan 11, 2020 19:01:54 GMT -5
raylatch98 you have the wrong Michael Ray song listed, just fyi
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 12, 2020 11:41:28 GMT -5
So a complete overhaul and a new post because I do have power today and a lot of edits were made to the predictions Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Lady Antebellum “What If I Never Get Over You” 2-3. Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber “10,000 Hours” 2-3. Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” 4-5. Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads” 4-5. Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” 6. Maren Morris “The Bones” 7. Old Dominion “One Man Band” (last week) 8. Sam Hunt “Kinfolks” 9-11. Thomas Rhett “Remember You Young” (last week) (45% chance of going recurrent) 9-11. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” 9-11. Kane Brown “Homesick” 12. Jason Aldean “We Back” 13. Luke Bryan “What She Wants Tonight” 14-15. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” 14-15. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” 16-17. Brett Young “Catch” 16-17. Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” 18. Jake Owen “Homemade” 19. Riley Green “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” 20-21. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” 20-21. Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” 22. Travis Denning “After A Few” 23. Ryan Hurd “To A T” 24. Gabby Barrett “I Hope” 25. Morgan Wallen “Chasin’ You” 26. Eric Church “Monsters” 27. Scotty McCreery “In Between” (last week?) 28-29. LoCash “One Big Country Song” 28-29. Thomas Rhett featuring Jon Pardi “Beer Can’t Fix” 30. Michael Ray “Her World Or Mine” 31. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” 32. Justin Moore “Why We Drink” 33-36. Carrie Underwood “Drinking Alone” 33-36. Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” 33-36. Gone West “What Could’ve Been” 33-36. Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town” (last week?) 37-38. Chase Rice “Lonely If You Are” 37-38. Billy Currington “Details” 39. Rayne Johnson “Front Seat” 40-41. Hootie & The Blowfish “Hold On” 40-41. Kip Moore “She’s Mine” 42-45. Chris Janson “Done” 42-45. Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” 42-45. Chris Young “Drowning” 42-45. Ashley McBryde “One Night Standards” 46. Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani “Nobody But You” 47-48. Miranda Lambert “Bluebird” 47-48. Jon Langston “Now You Know” 49-50. Eli Young Band “Break It In” 49-50. Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” 51-52. Runaway June “Head Over Heels” 51-52. Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You” 53-55. Brantley Gilbert “Fire’t Up” 53-55. Lindsay Ell “I Don’t Love You” 53-55. Jameson Rodgers “Some Girls” 56. Dillon Carmichael “I’ll Do For You” 57-58. Matt Stell “Everywhere But On” 57-58. Morgan Evans “Diamonds” 59. Granger Smith “That’s Why I Love Dirt Roads” 60. Little Big Town “Over Drinking” (Re-Entry!)
New and Active Section Chris Lane “Big Big Plans” Tenille Arts “Somebody Like That” Midland “Cheating Songs” Teddy Robb “Really Shouldn’t Drink Around You” Zac Brown Band “Leaving Love Behind” Adam Doleac “Famous”
Going Recurrent Or Drop Outs Chris Lane “Big, Big Plans” Peak #58 Weeks: 6
Commentary So with the charts now in full swing, we have our first true regular week of the year, and this week pretty much picked up from where 2019 left us.
To start us off Lady Antebellum scores their first #1 in over 5 years with “What If I Never Get Over You”, they should be free-falling this next week as the song went for the max push this week. Looking to likely replace them at #1 is “10,000 Hours” by Dan + Shay & Justin Beiber which looks to have a close finish with the former 5-week #1 “Even Though I’m Leaving” by Luke Combs. Last weeks #1, “Ridin Roads” looks to spend a final week in the Top 5 as UMG is about to mount their own push week for “Heartache Medication” as Jon Pardi looks to score his third Billboard #1 and his first since “Dirt On My Boots” back in 2017.
Maren Morris looks to be getting Top 5 conversions with “The Bones” and should be the second biggest gainer besides Lady Antebellum. Old Dominion continues their rather slow descent down, but there is a chance “One Man Band” goes recurrent next week. Looking unsure to stay this week is Thomas Rhett’s former #1 as “Remember You Young” looks pretty close from a spins and audience perspective to fall below one or both of Kane Brown and Jimmie Allen. However “Remember You Young” does need to fall below both in order to go recurrent, so chances are not high either way.
Kane Brown does continue to gain well and looks to be a lock for #1. Same can not be said for Jimmie Allen who looks to be struggling to keep his bullet this week. I do think Jimmie Allen will stick around a few more weeks with “Make Me Want To” since I imagine the label will want a Top 5 peak at least on Mediabase for the song. “We Back” continues to remain slow and stay just outside the Top 10 as Luke Bryan’s “What She Wants Tonight” continues to edge closer and closer to passing Jason Aldean. Overall slow gains this week for Jordan Davis, Garth/Blake, and Brett Young. Meanwhile Ingrid Andress after spending the last few weeks really slowing down looks to have picked the pace up this week with “More Hearts Than Mine”. Jake Owen and Riley Green should remain steady this week but neither looks to gain a spot unless “Remember You Young” goes recurrent. Unfortunately for Kelsea Ballerini, “Homecoming Queen” has hit a brick wall this week and stands a very good chance of losing it’s bullet. Obviously since Kelsea Ballerini is under 20 weeks she won’t go recurrent yet, but so far into the new year “Homecoming Queen” has been one of the weakest links in the Top 20 outside of the songs already free-falling.
Carly Pearce/:Lee Brice do have a bit of an opening for entering the Top 20 with “I Hope You’re Happy Now” as they continue to do well. Solid week of gains for older singles from Travis Denning and Ryan Hurd as both men aim to have their first Top 20 single within the next few weeks. Gabby Barrett does however continue to close gap on both of them as “I Hope” continues to do very well, and not too far behind her are newer singles from Morgan Wallen and Eric Church as both “Monsters” and “Chasin’ You” do very well since hitting the Top 30. All this has left Scotty McCreery falling a good ways behind with “In Between” as Scotty McCreery spent most of the week slipping back farther. I do think “In Between” will keep it’s bullet but the future is not bright for it. The brand new single from Thomas Rhett “Beer Can’t Fix” is looking to enter the Top 30 in its third week as the song looks like a future #1. Michael Ray has a solid week and keeps his spot in the Top 30 nudging out Florida Georgia Line who went really slow this week with “Blessings”.
Singles from Caylee Hammack, Trisha Yearwood, and Gone West continue to stay in the 30s struggling to gain any traction and for Trisha Year wood she stands a pretty decent chance of going recurrent this week. Billy Currington also struggles this week as “Details” loses it’s CT40 spins this weekend. Good weeks for Justin Moore, to a lesser extent Carrie Underwood, and Chase Rice as newcomer Rayne Johnson scores his first Top 40 and the last spot in the Top 40 looks to be a close finish between Hootie & The Blowfish and Kip Moore.
Chris Janson continues his strong start with “Done”, and also another solid week for Miranda Lambert with “Bluebird and the new Blake Shelton/Gwen Stefani duet. Small losses looks to set back pretty much all of Chris Young, Maddie & Tae (who look to get bounced out of the Top 40 this week), Ashley McBryde, and Jon Langston. While despiting losing a couple of positions, Lauren Alaina looks to have actually kept steady in gains.
After spending last week stuck in #56 Runaway June looks to probably bounce back to their original peak of #51 with “Head Over Heels”. Morgan Evans also has a good week and should move up a couple spots and look for Little Big Town to snag the last spot in the Top 60 re-entering the chart with “Over Drinking”.
Songs I see Leaving Soon Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads” Old Dominion “One Man Band” Thomas Rhett “Remember You Young” Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” Scotty McCreery “In Between” Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town”
Songs In Danger Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” Jason Aldean “We Back” Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” Ryan Hurd “To a T” Gone West “What Could’ve Been” Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You” Eli Young Band “Break It In” Dillon Carmichael “I Do For You”
Songs I See Debuting/Returning Soon Midland “Cheating Songs” Chris Lane “Big, Big Plans” Tenille Arts “Somebody Like That” LANco “What I See” Teddy Robb “Really Shouldn’t Drink Around You”
Closing Thoughts With the charts picking it up, next week should be fun as Thomas Rhett and Old Dominion look like locks to go recurrent, and we could see some of the older songs also leave in the singles from Trisha Yearwood, Garth Brooks/Blake Shelton, Scotty McCreery, or even others like Caylee Hammack. Regardless, next week the Billboard chart should be a bit more active. Hope everyone reads this has a good day.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 14, 2020 12:26:28 GMT -5
This next week on the chart should be very interesting as we had all 3 of Gone West, Caylee Hammack, and Trisha Yearwood go recurrent, but it does seem like the labels are at least trying to revive those songs. How successful they are remains to be determined (not a great start for any of them as they all lost spins and audience today). Beyond that I am about 99% sure that both "Remember You Young" and "One Man Band" are going recurrent this time next week on Billboard (because of MLK day the charts won't be published til next Tuesday, same with the adds) as it looks like both Kane Brown and Jason Aldean should be ahead of spins. Also here are akk of the following songs need to re-bullet or they will also be sent recurrent.
"Dive Bar" by Garth Brooks/Blake Shelton "Catch" by Brett Young "Details" by Billy Currington "Lonely If You Are" by Chase Rice "Die From A Broken Heart" by Maddie & Tae
I don't know if any of these 5 will go recurrent, (judging by today's update Garth/Blake and Brett Young seem to be heading in a positive direction, and the other 3 once again lost audience today) but it does seem pretty clear to me at least that country radio is really ready to drop a lot of these songs and besides Brett Young and maybe Billy Currington, I don't really see much longevity for any of these songs in addition to the ancient non selling songs in the 20s (Travis Denning, Ryan Hurd, LoCash, and Scotty McCreery). Very excited to see hopefully a few chart house-cleanings in the next few weeks.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 19, 2020 16:05:56 GMT -5
The charts remain uncertain and lots of moving parts as the charts can go any number of ways. Which is very exciting. Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber “10,000 Hours” 2. Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” 3-4. Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” 3-4. Lady Antebellum “What If I Never Get Over You” 5. Maren Morris “The Bones” 6. Sam Hunt “Kinfolks” 7. Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads” (last week) 8. Old Dominion “One Man Band” (last week) 9-10. Kane Brown “Homesick” 9-10. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” 11. Jason Aldean “We Back” 12. Luke Bryan “What She Wants Tonight” 13. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” 14. Jake Owen “Homemade” 15-17. Brett Young “Catch” 15-17. Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” 15-17. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” (last week?) (45% chance of going recurrent) 18. Riley Green “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” 19. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” 20. Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” 21. Travis Denning “After A Few” 22-24. Ryan Hurd “To A T” 22-24. Morgan Wallen “Chasin’ You” 22-24. Gabby Barrett “I Hope” 25-26. Thomas Rhett featuring Jon Pardi “Beer Can’t Fix” 25-26. Scotty McCreery “In Between” 27. Eric Church “Monsters” 28. LoCash “One Big Country Song” 29-30. Michael Ray “Her World Or Mine” 29-30. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” {Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town”} (20% chance of re-entry) {Gone West “What Could’ve Been"} (45% chance of re-entry) 31. Carrie Underwood “Drinking Alone” 32. Justin Moore “Why We Drink” {Caylee Hammack “Family Tree”} (30% chance of re-entry) 33-34. Chase Rice “Lonely If You Are” 33-34. Chris Young “Drowning” 35. Billy Currington “Details” (last week?) (25% chance of going recurrent) 36. Rayne Johnson “Front Seat” 37-38. Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani “Nobody But You” 37-38. Miranda Lambert “Bluebird” 39-41. Hootie & The Blowfish “Hold On” 39-41. Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You” 39-41. Jon Langston “Now You Know” 42. Chris Janson “Done” 43-44. Brantley Gilbert “Fire’t Up” 43-44. Eli Young Band “Break It In” 45. Ashley McBryde “One Night Standards” 46-47. Kip Moore “She’s Mine” 46-47. Jameson Rodgers “Some Girls” 48. Runaway June “Head Over Heels” 49. Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” 50. Lindsay Ell “I Don’t Love You” 51-52. Matt Stell “Everywhere But On” 51-52. Chris Lane “Big, Big Plans” 53. Parker McCollum “Paper Heart” 54-55. Dillon Carmichael “I’ll Do For You” 54-55. Granger Smith “That’s Why I Love Dirt Roads” 56. LANco “What I See 57-58. Little Big Town “Over Drinking” 57-58. Teddy Robb “Really Shouldn’t Drink Around You” 59. Zac Brown Band “Leaving Love Behind” (Possibly New!) 60. Morgan Evans “Diamonds” (Re-Entry Possible!)
New and Active Section Midland “Cheating Songs” Tenille Arts “Somebody Like That Mitchell Tenpenny featuring Seaforth “Anything She Says” Heath Sanders “Faithfully” Adam Doleac “Famous” Stephanie Quayle “Whatcha Drinkin Bout”
Going Recurrent Or Drop Outs Thomas Rhett “Remember You Young” Peak #1 Weeks: 28 Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” Peak #40 Weeks: 24 (still being promoted by the label)
Commentary The charts continue to start back up early in the new year, and as evident by the predictions it is also kind of a mess. Mainly as besides “Hell Right” none of the songs that has given up promotion are below the Top 10 and as such everyone is in a bit of a jam and with this chart there is a whole lot of uncertainty.
At the top of the chart however there is not much uncertainty at all as Dan + Shay/Justin Beiber hit #1 with mega smash “10,000 Hours”, look for them to spend next week at #1 especially as the nearest competition “Heartache Medication” is maxing this week for #1 and looks to have to settle for a #2 peak and look for Jon Pardi to begin freefall next week. Elsewhere Lady Antebellum begins their descent and Luke Combs continues to a much slower and expected degree. I do think “What If I Never Get Over You” will get one more week after this one (mainly due to Dustin Lynch and Old Dominion being farther down and the songs below the Top 10 not looking strong enough to enter the Top 10). Rounding out the Top 5 should be Maren Morris with “The Bones” who is looking to move up pretty assuredly to #2 next week and the successor to when “10,000 Hours” gives up the #1 spot. I could also easily see Maren Morris spending a few weeks at #1 herself.
This should probably be the last week for Old Dominion and Dustin Lynch as both continue to freefall and should be replaced by Jason Aldean and Luke Bryan in the Top 10 next week. Both Kane Brown and Jimmie Allen have solid weeks this week as both continue to near the Top 5. I do think the former is likely to hit #1 after Sam Hunt, the latter in “Make Me Want To” is gonna probably settle for a Top 5 peak given the age (52 weeks).
Below the Top 10 Jason Aldean continues to remain just below as unexpectedly Luke Bryan just stops this week in terms of audience with “What She Wants Tonight”, I do think this week was probably more of a fluke. But next week if this continues than I would be on the lookout for this song to be a bit in danger. Jordan Davis continues to maintain a bit of a lead on the songs just below him. Looks like Jake Owen “Homemade” has really hit a boost this week. Both Brett Young and Garth Brooks/Blake Shelton needed to re-bullet this week to stay on Billboard this week. Brett Young pretty easily has managed to do so with “Catch”, however “Dive Bar” looks a bit more unsure as Garth/Blake stayed pretty much flat in terms of audience. Ingrid Andress continues to do well with “More Hearts Than Mine”. Riley Green also has a great week with his latest single and Carly Pearce should pass Kelsea Ballerini and also get her third Top 20 with “I Hope You’re Happy Now” as Carly Pearce looks very likely to score her second #1 given this songs progress so far. Same can not be said for Kelsea Ballerini as besides Garth/Blake, “Homecoming Queen” is definitely one of the weakest links in the Top 20. I do think Kelsea Ballerini can hang in there for a Top 15, but I am not optimistic about the Top 10 yet.
Singles from Travis Denning, Ryan Hurd, Scotty McCreery, and LoCash continue to show their age on the charts as all continue to stay in the 20s not really moving the needle at all. Gabby Barrett continues to pick up more steam with hot selling single “I Hope” and also doing even better is Morgan Wallen with “Chasin You”. Given how unstable the Top 20 is, I would not be shocked if “Chasin You” is in the Top 20 next week. Shockingly Eric Church really hits the brakes and stays afloat with “Monsters”. Like with Luke Bryan I do think this week is probably a fluke. “Beer Can’t Fix” enters the Top 30 in its fourth week and continues to be one of the strongest of the charts if not the strongest and looks like a probable lock for #1.
The 30s are a mess as Billy Currington is at risk to go recurrent, and last week’s recurrents in Gone West, Caylee Hammack, and Trisha Yearwood are still being promoted and all have a chance to re-enter the Billboard chart. This chart is going under the notion all 3 stay recurrent and Billy Currington stays on the chart.
Anyways Carrie Underwood nears the Top 30, but she had a very slow week and singles from Justin Moore and Blake Shelton/Gwen Stefani draw closer. Chris Young sees a really solid week with “Drowning” and Miranda Lambert should also enter the Top 40 with “Bluebird”. The last spot in the Top 40 should be close between Jon Langston, Hootie & The Blowfish, and Rodney Atkins, as the former two really stay the same in terms of audience and Rodney Atkins has an unexpected great week with “Thank God For You”.
Chris Janson and Brantley Gilbert continue to near the Top 40 with the follow-up to their #1s late last year. Newcomer Jameson Rodgers has a very great week with “Some Girls” and also nears the Top 40 for his first time. After a really great week last week, “She’s Mine” bled a bit in audience and looks to fall back into the mid 40s. Also having a bad week is Ashley McBryde with “One Night Standards” as KKBQ really slashed her airplay down a bit, unfortunately this also means she is probably eligible togo recurrent . I do think “One Night Standards” is gonna be overall fine, with the album scheduled later this year. But Ashley McBryde needs some of the non KKBQ stations to bump up airplay. Look for Runaway June to sneak ahead of Lauren Alaina, however both songs and “Break It In” did not really gain much this week. Lindsay Ell should match her peak set back on her debut week as “I Don’t Love You” continues to hang in there.
Zac Brown Band looks to debut with their new single, and Morgan Evans should also re-enter as most of the songs in the 50s don’t really gain a lot. Out of all of the songs in the 50s Parker McCollum, Chris Lane, and LANco look to have the best weeks out of all of the songs.
Songs I see Leaving Soon Lady Antebellum “What If I Never Get Over You” Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” Dustin Lynch “Ridin’ Roads” Old Dominion “One Man Band” Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” Ryan Hurd “To a T” LoCash “One Big Country Song” Billy Currington “Details” Dillon Carmichael “I Do For You”
Songs In Danger Note: This section now refers to songs I don’t immediately see leaving but I could see going recurrent within the next couple of months (pretty much can I see adding 8 weeks to this songs current chart run) Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” Jason Aldean “We Back” Travis Denning “After A Few” Scotty McCreery “In Between” Hootie & The Blowfish “Hold On” Eli Young Band “Break It In”
Songs I See Debuting/Returning Soon Midland “Cheating Songs” Tenille Arts “Somebody Like That” Hardy featuring Lauren Alaina & Devin Dawson “One Beer” Mitchell Tenpenny featuring Seaforth “Anything She Says” Stephanie Quayle “Whatcha Drinkin Bout” Keith Urban - TBA (I feel like we have to be getting a single here real shortly and with it an iHeartMedia debut)
Closing Thoughts Like I said the charts do remain very uncertain as the labels insistent on keeping some songs promoted. However the dam for both Billboard and Mediabase should burst any week as the charts continue to remain unstable at best.
With next week looking like both Old Dominion and Dustin Lynch’s swan songs for their latest #1s we are guaranteed at least some movement on the charts, and hopefully more songs below the Top 10 that have massively overstayed give up officially on Mediabase or both charts (Ryan Hurd, Garth/Blake, LoCash, Scotty McCreery, Trisha Yearwood, Travis Denning, Caylee Hammack, Maddie & Tae).
See everyone next Sunday for the next week of predictions, and remember the charts won’t be here until Tuesday due to MLK Day.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 26, 2020 15:57:44 GMT -5
The charts remain uncertain per usual as outside of A-listers any song below the Top 20 is almost becoming an endurance challenge to just hang in there and wait for an opening.
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1-2. Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber “10,000 Hours” 1-2. Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” 3. Maren Morris “The Bones” 4. Sam Hunt “Kinfolks” 5. Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” 6. Lady Antebellum “What If I Never Get Over You” (last week) 7. Kane Brown “Homesick” 8. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” (last week?) 9-10. Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads” (last week) (40% chance of going recurrent) 9-10. Jason Aldean “We Back” 11. Luke Bryan “What She Wants Tonight” 12. Jake Owen “Homemade” 13-14. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” 13-14. Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” 15. Brett Young “Catch” 16-17. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” 16-17. Riley Green “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” 18. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” 19-20. Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” 19-20. Travis Denning “After A Few” 21. Gabby Barrett “I Hope” 22. Morgan Wallen “Chasin’ You” 23. Thomas Rhett featuring Jon Pardi “Beer Can’t Fix” 24. Ryan Hurd “To A T” 25-26. Scotty McCreery “In Between” 25-26. Eric Church “Monsters” 27-28. Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani “Nobody But You” 27-28. LoCash “One Big Country Song” 29. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” 30. Michael Ray “Her World Or Mine” Gone West “What Could’ve Been (35% chance of re-entry) 31-32. Justin Moore “Why We Drink” Caylee Hammack “Family Tree”} (50% chance of re-entry) 31-32. Carrie Underwood “Drinking Alone” 33. Chase Rice “Lonely If You Are” 34. Rayne Johnson “Front Seat” 35-37. Chris Young “Drowning” 35-37. Billy Currington “Details” 35-37. Miranda Lambert “Bluebird” 38-42. Hot Country Knights featuring Travis Tritt “Pick Her Up” (New!) 38-42. Luke Combs featuring Eric Church “Does To Me” (New!) 38-42. Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” (70% chance of re-entry) 38-42. Jon Langston “Now You Know” 38-42. Kip Moore “She’s Mine” 43-44. Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You” 43-44. Chris Janson “Done” 45. Eli Young Band “Break It In” 46-50. Hootie & The Blowfish “Hold On” (last week) 46-50. Brantley Gilbert “Fire’t Up” 46-50. Ashley McBryde “One Night Standards” (40% chance of going recurrent) 46-50. Jameson Rodgers “Some Girls” 46-50. Little Big Town “Over Drinking” 51-54. Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” 51-54. Dillon Carmichael “I’ll Do For You” 51-54. Matt Stell “Everywhere But On” 51-54. Runaway June “Head Over Heels” 55. Lindsay Ell “I Don’t Love You” 56. Chris Lane “Big, Big Plans” 57. Midland “Cheating Songs” (New!) 58. LANco “What I See 59. Parker McCollum “Paper Heart” 60. Tenille Arts “Somebody Like That” (New!)
New and Active Section Teddy Robb “Really Shouldn’t Drink Around You” Hardy featuring Lauren Alaina & Devin Dawson “One Beer” Noah Schnacky “I’ll Be The One” Mitchell Tenpenny featuring Seaforth “Anything She Says” Adam Doleac “Famous” Stephanie Quayle “Whatcha Drinkin Bout”
Going Recurrent Or Drop Outs Old Dominion “One Man Band” Peak #1 Weeks: 32 Zac Brown Band “Leaving Love Behind” Peak #55 Weeks: 1 (still being promoted) Teddy Robb “Really Shouldn’t Drink Around You” Peak #58 Weeks: 5 (still being promoted) Granger Smith “That’s Why I Love Dirt Roads” Peak #56 Weeks: 7 (still being promoted) Morgan Evans “Diamonds” Peak #60 Weeks: 2 (still being promoted)
Commentary This week the charts logjam is in full effect and is in fact probably one of the worst I have seen in quite a long time.
At the top of the charts it looks to be a close knit battle between Dan + Shay/Justin Beiber with “10,000 Hours” and Jon Pardi with “Heartache Medication”. I do think with Jon Pardi coming up just short on Mediabase, Billboard should probably follow as well. My gut tells me UMG Nashville will hang on for one more week to get Jon Pardi the #1 on both charts. Maren Morris should move into #3 and still a lock for #1 as Sam Hunt moves into the Top 5 with “Kinfolks”. This will be his first time since 2017 with “Body Like A Backroad”. Luke Combs continues his slow descent down with “Even Though I’m Leaving”.
Look for this to probably be the last week for Lady Antebellum with their previous #1 “What If I Never Get Over You”. Also on borrowed time is Jimmie Allen and since he hit the Top 5 on Mediabase I do think there is at least a chance Stoney Creek gives up promotion this week and this song begins to freefall. Jason Aldean should enter the Top 10 with “We Back”, and although I have “Ridin Roads” on the charts, don’t be shocked if it leaves as it should be close between Dustin Lynch and Luke Bryan in terms of spins.
Speaking of Luke Bryan after having a complete dud of a week last week, “What She Wants Tonight” is back to a nice solid pace, but is starting to have Jake Owen catch some ground with “Homemade” which continues to surge another week in a row. Solid weeks for Jordan Davis and Brett Young, but an absolute great week for Ingrid Andress with her debut single “More Hearts Than Mine” and should re-pass Brett Young “Catch”, and should finish just below “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot”. Now I did remove the last week logo from “Dive Bar” as Garth Brooks is co-hosting CCUSA in a couple of weeks so I assume Garth/Blake is gonna stay on the charts for a few more weeks.
Newcomer Travis Denning should enter the Top 20 and “After A Few” stands a good shot of passing the latest Kelsea Ballerini which continues to just hang in the #20 spot for another week. I don’t see “Homecoming Queen” leaving the charts anytime soon, since the album is not for another couple of months. But I do think the ceiling may be a Top 10 peak at best. Just outside the Top 20 is Gabby Barrett with “I Hope, Morgan Wallen with “Chasin’ You” and Thomas Rhett/Jon Pardi with “Beer Can’t Fix” as all 3 have great weeks this week and next week should storm into the Top 20 pretty easily.
Singles from Ryan Hurd, LoCash, and Scotty McCreery continue to meander in the 20s, showing no signs of life but none look to immediately leave except maybe “To a T”. Unfortunately for Eric Church “Monsters” is once again having a bit of a slow week, and with the Luke Combs duet beginning to climb the chart I could see “Monsters” going back to a slow climb. To the surprise of no one the Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani duet breaks easily into the Top 30 and is definitely performing more like “God’s Country” than “Hell Right”.
Now we get into the 30s and from this point onwards it is a mess so bare with me here. Carrie Underwood and Justin Moore continue to stay just outside the Top 30. I do think both Gone West and Caylee Hammack could easily return, I am not as confident with “What Could’ve Been” as Gone West really just stayed flat the whole week. I was gonna say the same for “Family Tree” but with Caylee Hammack’s huge rally for today’s updat e in gaining over 100 spins I do think it is completely up in the air whether she will return.
Newcomer Rayne Johnson had an unexpected great week with his debut single “Front Seat”, also Maddie & Tae should return after a couple of dud weeks with “Die From A Broken Heart”. I still don’t think Maddie & Tae’s song is long for the world, but it is nice that it should re-enter. Look for new singles from Hot Country Knights and Luke Combs to contend for a Top 40 debut. Also this will be Travis Tritt’s first time on the airplay chart since 2007. As such newcomer Jon Langston looks to possibly get temporarily bounced out of the Top 40.
Unfortunatley due to KKBQ continuing to slash her airplay I do think “One Night Standards” stands a great chance to lose audience, I do think Ashley McBryde could stay this week as she just needs a positive spin gainage on Billboard. Regardless the song will still be promoted for at least a few months given the album won’t be dropped till April. Hootie & The Blowfish, after getting back into the chart in the early part of the new year it does look like “Hold On” is starting to give up once and for all. On the flipside, due to probably the album bomb, Little Big Town has had a very solid week with “Over Drinking” and stands a great shot in the Top 50.
Bland boring nothing weeks has unfortunately set singles back from Lindsay Ell, Lauren Alaina, Runaway June, Chris Lane and to a lesser extent Matt Stell and Dillon Carmichael. Lastly look for new singles from Midland and probably Tenille Arts to surge into the chart as both have absolute great weeks this week (“Somebody Like That” is at +404 on Spincrease on AllAccess which is a really great sign for Tenille Arts.
Songs I see Leaving Soon Aka songs that I see going recurrent within 4 weeks.) Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” (regardless if it is being promoted next week) Lady Antebellum “What If I Never Get Over You” Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads” Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” Ryan Hurd “To a T” Hootie & The Blowfish “Hold On”
Songs In Danger Note: This section now refers to songs I don’t immediately see leaving but I could see going recurrent within the next couple of months (pretty much can I see adding 8 weeks to this songs current chart run) Jason Aldean “We Back” Travis Denning “After A Few” Scotty McCreery “In Between” LoCash “One Big Country Song Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” Eli Young Band “Break It In”
Songs I See Debuting/Returning Soon All of the songs that look to fall out this week sans “One Man Band” Hardy featuring Lauren Alaina/Devin Dawson “One Beer” (wouldn't be shocked if this song is one of the biggest songs of 2020) Old Dominion “Some People Do” Stephanie Quayle “Whatcha Drinkin Bout”
Closing Thoughts So with Luke Combs/Eric Church and Hot Country Knights/Travis Tritt debuting and no songs once again below the Top 10 giving up (Trisha Yearwood is still being promoted, just “Every Girl In This Town” stands no chance to enter this week). Causes the charts to fall into an even bigger logjam than before and really sets back the charts by a lot.
Maybe next week we will get an actual housecleaning, but from now on I am gonna have no expectations and maybe next week I will be pleasantly surprised to see some non Top 10 songs finally leave.
Hope everyone reading this has a good day and next Sunday expect another round of predictions.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 2, 2020 16:11:22 GMT -5
Mini house cleaning as it seems like radio is really starting to dispose of a lot of the leftovers of 2019 as we continue into the new year and there is a lot to say.
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” 2. Maren Morris “The Bones” 3. Dan + Shay & Justin Beiber “10,000 Hours” 4. Sam Hunt “Kinfolks” 5. Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” 6. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” 7. Kane Brown “Homesick” 8. Jason Aldean “We Back” (last week?) 9. Luke Bryan “What She Wants Tonight” 10. Jake Owen “Homemade” 11. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” 12-13. Brett Young “Catch” 12-13. Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” 14. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” (last week?) 15. Riley Green “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” 16. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” 17-19. Gabby Barrett “I Hope” 17-19. Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” 17-19. Travis Denning “After A Few” 20-21. Thomas Rhett & Jon Pardi “Beer Can’t Fix” 20-21. Morgan Wallen “Chasin’ You” 22. Ryan Hurd “To A T” (last week?) 23. Scotty McCreery “In Between” 24. Eric Church “Monsters” 25. Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani “Nobody But You” 26. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” 27. Michael Ray “Her World Or Mine” 28-31. Carrie Underwood “Drinking Alone” 28-31. Justin Moore “Why We Drink” 28-31. Gone West “What Could’ve Been” 28-31. Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” 32. Chase Rice “Lonely If You Are” 33-34. Luke Combs featuring Eric Church “Does To Me” 33-34. Chris Young “Drowning” 35. Miranda Lambert “Bluebirds” 36. Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” 37-38. Billy Currington “Details” 37-38. Rayne Johnson “Front Seat” 39. Ashley McBryde “One Night Standards” 40-41. Kip Moore “She’s Mine” 40-41. Jon Langston “Now You Know” 42. Chris Janson “Done” 43. Midland “Cheating Songs” 44-46. Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” 44-46. Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You” (last week?) 44-46. Eli Young Band “Break It In” 47. Jameson Rodgers “Some Girls” 48-49. Brantley Gilbert “Fire’t Up” 48-49. Matt Stell “Everywhere But On” 50-51. Chris Lane “Big, Big Plans” 50-51. Runaway June “Head Over Heels” 52. Lindsay Ell “I Don’t Love You” (35% chance of going recurrent this week) 53-56. Dillon Carmichael “I Do For You” (last week?) 53-56. Parker McCollum “Pretty Heart” 53-56. Morgan Evans “Diamonds” (Re-Entry!) 53-56. Hot Country Knights featuring Travis Tritt “Pick Her Up” 57. LANco “What I See” (Re-Entry!) 58. Tenille Arts “Somebody Like That” (New!) 59. Little Big Town “Over Drinking” (last week?) 60. Granger Smith “That’s Why I Love Dirt Roads” (Re-Entry!)
New and Active Section Brandon Lay “For My Money” Stephanie Quayle “Whatcha Drinkin Bout” Alissa Griffith “Glasses” Noah Schnacky “I’ll Be The One” Old Dominion “Some People Do” Adam Doleac “Famous”
Going Recurrent Or Drop Outs Lady Antebellum “What If I Never Get Over You” Peak #1 Weeks: 37 Dustin Lynch “Ridin’ Roads” Peak #1 Weeks: 44 LoCash “One Big Country Song” Peak #27 Weeks: 41 Hootie & The Blowfish “Hold On” Peak #30 Weeks: 12
Commentary Looks like the possible housecleaning is happening as there is a solid shot we get 4 songs going recurrent this week and bringing a bit of balance back to the chart as even more songs look to be running out of steam.
Starting at the top it looks like Jon Pardi managed to outwait “10,000 Hours” to secure a week at #1. With that being said, look for Jon Pardi to probably fall like a rock this next week especially, given how long “Heartache Medication” was in the Top 10. At #2 should be Maren Morris with “The Bones” and look for her to hit #1 next week easily and given how well the song is both selling and testing well, do not be shocked if Maren Morris spends multiple weeks at #1. The reason I say this as that Maren’s nearest competition is Sam Hunt with “Kinfolks” and I do think there is enough of a gap between the two songs for Maren to get a second week. Former #1s from Dan + Shay/Justin Beiber and Luke Combs should round out the Top 5 as both fall relatively slowly. Jimmie Allen should re-pass Kane Brown as “Make Me Want To” nears the Top 5 in it’s 54th week. I wanna believe it will be gone soon but it continues to hang in there. Jason Aldean should move up to #8 on Billboard but “We Back” has really hit a snag on the chart and don’t be shocked if anytime within the next month the label drops it. Luke Bryan and Jake Owen should enter the Top 10 as “Homemade” looks like a future #1 and Luke Bryan may have a bit of a tougher road to #1.
Jordan Davis nears his third Top 10 single with “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” which looks to have a solid week on the chart. However he will have to probably wait until Jon Pardi leaves the Top 10 before making his move. Ingrid Andress slows down a bit and that gives Brett Young the chance to re-pass “More Hearts Than Mine”, however both songs are looking strong and both are probable locks for the Top 5. Below them is Garth Brooks with “Dive Bar”, I am unsure if the label’s plan is to max this week or next week but regardless the song should be just about done. Riley Green should enter the Top 15 with “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” and another solid week. I do think Riley Green is still a contender for #1 but the less than stellar callout does give me great pause. Carly Pearce/Lee Brice continue to sail solidly through the teens as Carly prepares for her sophomore album release in a little under 2 weeks. Slow weeks for Kelsea Ballerini and Travis Denning, the former due to poor callout scores and the latter due to age of the song. I do think “Homecoming Queen” is in it for the album release in March so Kelsea should have a handful of weeks left in her at least. After getting passed by Morgan Wallen, Gabby Barrett should come storming back and “I Hope” should be Barrett's first Top 20 single. Speaking of Morgan Wallen, either his single “Chasin’ You” should round out the Top 20 or the new Thomas Rhett single “Beer Can’t Fix” with Jon Pardi as both continue to look like they should hit #1.
Below the Top 20, Ryan Hurd flat out stalled out this week with “To a T” not really gaining much either way, he should keep his bullet but he is on borrowed time and if today’s updat on Mediabase is any indication, the end is sooner than later. Scotty McCreery continues to hang in there as “In Between” nears the Top 20. Blake & Gwen continue their very fast start with "Nobody But You". I do have LoCash off the chart, but they do have a chance to stay on if they keep their bullet, however since Monday they have had an overall net negative in audience and have essentially stayed dead even in spins so I am playing it safe and say they go recurrent with “One Big Country Song”. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” puts a bit more of a gap between it and Michael Ray with his current single. The Top 30 should be a close finish between Carrie Underwood, Gone West, Caylee Hammack, and Justin Moore. I do think out of the four Justin Moore is the frontrunner to hit the Top 30 as “Why We Drink” has really hit its stride, after that I think Carrie Underwood is next followed by Gone West and Caylee Hammack. If LoCash goes recurrent 3 of these 4 should enter the Top 30 if the duo stays another week it will only be two new Top 30 entries.
Below the Top 30 Chase Rice nears the Top 30 with “Lonely If You Are” and it does seem like The Bachelor performance did get the song a bit more momentum, however with the song at 31 weeks on the chart I probably see Top 20 as the ceiling for the song. Luke Combs storms into the Top 40 a week before going for adds with his new single “Does To Me”, Luke Combs should easily enter the Top 30 next week. Chris Young and Miranda Lambert picks up a bit of steam with “Drowning” and “Bluebird” respectively. After re-entering the Billboard chart last week, Maddie & Tae should set a new peak and had a solid week with “Die From A Broken Heart”. I still think Top 30 is max but I do think this song has a solid shot to outpeak their previous single “Friends Don’t”. Billy Currington continues to flounder in the 30s with “Details”, after dropping out of the Top 40 for a few weeks, Ashley McBryde looks to come back into the Top 40 and should outpeak her previous single “Girl Going Nowhere” with “One Night Standards”. The last spot in the Top 40 should come down to Kip Moore and Jon Langston as both songs remain very close to each other for a second week in a row.
In the 40s and 50s, Midland continues their expected fast start with new single “Cheatin’ Songs”. After falling 5 spots to #54 with her latest single, Lauren Alaina should come roaring back into the Top 50 and set a new peak easily with "Getting Good", especially as singles from Eli Young Band, Rodney Atkins, Hootie & The Blowfish (who should go recurrent this week), and Dillon Carmichael struggle and look to be possibly near the end of the rope with the chart runs (I think Hootie & The Blowfish is done, and Dillon Carmichael is about done, unsure about the other two). Matt Stell should also see a solid launch with his sophomore single “Everywhere But On”. Lindsay Ell is eligible to go recurrent as KKBQ slashed a bit of airplay and "I Don't Love You" does look to lose a bit of audience, but if Lindsay Ell gains enough spins she should re-bullet. Morgan Evans has a great week with “Diamonds” as he re-enters and should get out of his #60 position rut. Also look for LANco, and Granger Smith to re-enter and Hot Country Knights/Travis Tritt to go through their iHeartMedia hangover as it looks like country radio is treating it as a Dierks Bentley single. Lastly, while not as great of a week as last week “Somebody Like That” should debut this week marking Tenille Arts’s first single to chart and makes her the fourth solo female artist to climb the airplay chart for the first time (Tenille Arts, Caylee Hammack, Gabby Barrett, and Ingrid Andress). Things look good so far in the new year for “Somebody Like That”.
Songs I see Leaving Soon (Aka songs that I see going recurrent within 4 weeks.) Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” Dan + Shay & Justin Beiber “10,000 Hours” Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” Jason Aldean “We Back” Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” Ryan Hurd “To a T” Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” (I still don’t think she is long for the chart as she is at Week 35) Eli Young Band “Break It In” Dillon Carmichael “I Do For You” Little Big Town “Over Drinking”
Songs In Danger Note: This section now refers to songs I don’t immediately see leaving but I could see going recurrent within the next couple of months (pretty much can I see adding 8 weeks to this songs current chart run excluding future songs that are set to peak at #1) Travis Denning “After A Few” Scotty McCreery “In Between” Billy Currington “Details” Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You”
Songs I See Debuting/Returning Soon Hardy featuring Lauren Alaina & Devin Dawson “One Beer” Old Dominion “Some People Do” Stephanie Quayle “Whatcha Drinkin Bout” Lady Antebellum “What I’m Leaving For” Teddy Robb “Really Shouldn’t Drink Around You” Zac Brown Band “Leaving Love Behind” Dustin Lynch “Momma’s House” Kenny Chesney- TBA (heard on my local iHeartCountry station he is releasing a new single in a few weeks)
Closing Thoughts Well the charts look to finally break open a bit as two former #1s and a couple of non hits look to be removed from the chart. With so many songs struggling, in freefall or look to be pulled in the coming weeks (Garth Brooks, Jon Pardi, Ryan Hurd, Little Big Town, Dillon Carmichael, Jimmie Allen, maybe Jason Aldean).
With new singles coming from acts like Old Dominion, Lady Antebellum, Dustin Lynch, and Kenny Chesney it seems a bit refreshing to see the charts kind of break open. Also hopefully with the charts in a bit of a flux this gives some of the female songs below the Top 20 a chance to make a bit more of a dent at least (Carrie Underwood, Miranda Lambert, Maddie & Tae, Ashley McBryde, Lauren Alaina, Runaway June, and Tenille Arts).
Very excited and hopeful next week we get a few more songs going recurrent next week, even if the Top 10 is probably gonna stay pretty in lock barring a Jason Aldean or Jimmie Allen freefall (Fingers crossed one does fall). Until then, have a great week see you next Tuesday.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 9, 2020 17:45:23 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60
1. Maren Morris “The Bones” 2. Sam Hunt “Kinfolks” 3-4. Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” 3-4. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” 5. Dan + Shay & Justin Beiber “10,000 Hours” 6. Kane Brown “Homesick” 7. Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” (last week) 8-10. Luke Bryan “What She Wants Tonight” 8-10. Jason Aldean “We Back” 8-10. Jake Owen “Homemade” 11. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” 12. Brett Young “Catch” 13. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” (last week) 14. Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” 15. Riley Green “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” 16. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” 17. Gabby Barrett “I Hope” 18. Travis Denning “After A Few” 19-21. Morgan Wallen “Chasin’ You” 19-21. Thomas Rhett & Jon Pardi “Beer Can’t Fix” 19-21. Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” 22-23. Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani “Nobody But You” 22-23. Ryan Hurd “To A T” 24. Luke Combs featuring Eric Church “Does To Me” 25. Scotty McCreery “In Between” 26. Eric Church “Monsters” 27. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” 28-29. Michael Ray “Her World Or Mine” 28-29. LoCash “One Big Country Song” (70% chance of re-entry) 30. Justin Moore “Why We Drink” 31. Carrie Underwood “Drinking Alone” 32-33. Gone West “What Could’ve Been” 32-33. Chase Rice “Lonely If You Are” 34. Miranda Lambert “Bluebirds” 35-37. Billy Currington “Details” 35-37. Chris Young “Drowning” 35-37. Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” 38. Ashley McBryde “One Night Standards” 39-41. Rayne Johnson “Front Seat” (20% chance of going recurrent) 39-41. Jon Langston “Now You Know” 39-41. Kip Moore “She’s Mine” 42-44. Midland “Cheating Songs” 42-44. Chris Janson “Done” 42-44. Hot Country Knights featuring Travis Tritt “Pick Her Up” 45-46. Dillon Carmichael “I Do For You” 45-46. Jameson Rodgers “Some Girls” 47. Eli Young Band “Break It In” 48-52. Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” 48-52. Runaway June “Head Over Heels” 48-52. Matt Stell “Everywhere But On” 48-52. Brantley Gilbert “Fire’t Up” 48-52. Lee Brice “Rumor” (Glover Mix) (I assume it stays around the same audience as last week) 53. Lindsay Ell “I Don’t Love You” 54-56. Little Big Town “Over Drinking” 54-56. Chris Lane “Big, Big Plans” 54-56. LANco “What I See” 57-58. Granger Smith “That’s Why I Love Dirt Roads” 57-58. Tenille Arts “Somebody Like That” (New!) 59. Parker McCollum “Pretty Heart” 60. Morgan Evans “Diamonds”
New and Active Section Hardy featuring Lauren Alaina & Devin Dawson “One Beer” Dustin Lynch “Momma’s House” Brandon Lay “For My Money” Old Dominion “Some People Do” Jackson Michelson “Stay Over” Mitchell Tenpenny featuring Seaforth “Anything She Says”
Going Recurrent Or Drop Outs Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” Peak #33 Weeks: 35 (65% chance of going recurrent) Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You” Peak #43 Weeks: 21
Commentary Well this is a week where the charts kind of are at a standstill in many areas. However with two songs looking to be locks to leave next week in Jon Pardi and Garth Brooks. The charts should breathe a bit more next week.
Starting at the top Maren Morris scores her fourth #1 single in her career with “The Bones” which is undoubtedly her biggest hit. Also there is a non zero chance Sony opts for a second week for the song given how well the song is selling and testing with listeners, which if she gets a second week at #1 would mark the first solo female multi week #1 since Carrie Underwood’s “Blown Away”. In the runner up spot should be Sam Hunt with “Kinfolks” as he awaits his turn at #1. Either the former #1 from Luke Combs or Jimmie Allen will be in the Bronze position with “Make Me Want To” looking very likely to hit #1 after Maren Morris and Sam Hunt clear out.
Kane Brown kind of just continues to hang around in the Top 10 not doing much to really be in danger of leaving but besides Jason Aldean is one of the weakest links in the Top 10 it feels like. I still think he is likely to hit #1 but radio has been a bit slow converting this song at a typical Top 10 pace. Like I said last week Jon Pardi freefalls hard this week with “Heartache Medication” and should be going recurrent this next week. Jason Aldean, Luke Bryan, and Jake Owen pick up more Top 10 conversions as the latter two really close in on “We Back” and look poised to pass Jason Aldean next week.
Garth Brooks went for max spins this week on Mediabase to enter the Top 10 which he did succeed but he should come up short on Billboard and I imagine this is (thankfully) the last week for “Dive Bar”. Jordan Davis and Brett Young near the Top 10 with the former more than likely replacing “Heartache Medication” and the latter more than likely replacing “Catch”. Unfortunately getting a bit lost in the shuffle this week is Ingrid Andress as “More Hearts Than Mine” should fall back to #14, however with a sizable lead on Riley Green and two songs looking like locks to go recurrent, Ingrid Andress should set a new peak of #12 on Billboard next week.
Speaking of Riley Green he along with the latest singles from Carly Pearce/Lee Brice, and Travis Denning all move slowly this week as well. Gabby Barrett on the other hand really gains well this week with debut single “I Hope” as she should pass both Travis Denning and Kelsea Ballerini. While a decent portion of songs in the teens are moving slowly, Kelsea Ballerini just struggled to stay afloat with “Homecoming Queen”. Kelsea should keep her bullet but there is at least a non zero chance that both Morgan Wallen “Chasin You” and Thomas Rhett/Jon Pardi “Beer Can’t Fix” pass her and knock her out of the Top 20. I do think Kelsea Ballerini will hang in there for the album drop, but once the album drops I think Black River will drop this song more than likely.
In the 20s Ryan Hurd is in the Kelsea Ballerini boat trying to stay afloat, unlike Kelsea I don’t see “To a T” lasting to the end of March. As expected new singles from Blake Shelton (with Gwen Stefani) and Luke Combs/Eric Church continue their red hot start or in Luke Combs case white hot start. Both “Does To Me” and “Nobody But You” look to both be both locks for #1 and probable multiple weeks #1. Meanwhile singles from Scotty McCreery and Eric Church continue to just remain non existent in the 20s as neither really stands out as “Monsters” continues to move pretty slowly since hitting the Top 30.
I do have LoCash as a probable re-entry as they gained a decent amount of audience and spins on Mediabase and I imagine it should translate to “One Big Country Song” returning. Unfortunately due to this re-entry and Justin Moore having a decent week, Carrie Underwood looks to get temporarily pushed out of the Top 30 with “Drinking Alone” as she continues her underwhelming chart run. Gone West was the first of a few songs last week that lost its bullet last week, but “What Could’ve Been” should re-bullet as Chase Rice stops right in place in terms of gains after last week’s great week.
Miranda Lambert continues to have a solid run so far with “Bluebird” as Chris Young continues to struggle with “Drowning”, which is still shocking to me given how well it has connected with the general public. Billy Currington and Maddie & Tae had solid weeks with their latest singles despite the age of both. Ashley McBryde had another solid week with “One Night Standards”, Rayne Johnson and Kip Moore is another one of the songs that is eligible to go recurrent, but like Gone West both should stay.
In the 40s singles from Midland, Hot Country Knights, and Matt Stell have great weeks of gains while Lauren Alaina struggles this week after last week’s great gain. Also look for Tenille Arts to debut on Billboard after a couple of weeks of being just outside the Top 60.
Songs I see Leaving Soon (Aka songs that I see going recurrent within 4 weeks.) Dan + Shay & Justin Beiber “10,000 Hours” Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” Ryan Hurd “To A T” LoCash “One Big Country Song”
Songs In Danger Note: This section now refers to songs I don’t immediately see leaving but I could see going recurrent within the next couple of months (pretty much can I see adding 8 weeks to this songs current chart run excluding future songs that are set to peak at #1) Travis Denning “After A Few” Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” Scotty McCreery “In Between” Eli Young Band “Break It In”
Songs I See Debuting/Returning Soon Hardy featuring Lauren Alaina & Devin Dawson “One Beer” Old Dominion “Some People Do” Lady Antebellum “What I’m Leaving For” Dustin Lynch “Momma’s House” Kenny Chesney “Here and Now”
Closing Thoughts Well with Jon Pardi and Garth/Blake looking like a lock to go recurrent next week. Maybe next week another song will join them, but who knows. Time will tell, but with not a lot of songs not rushing to debut I do think a lot of songs are gonna hold onto the bitter end.
Also of note non or low charting singles from Teddy Robb, Haley & Michaels, Noah Schnacky are also looking done on the charts.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 16, 2020 15:05:26 GMT -5
The week is interesting to have a double shot of recurrent songs and yet the chart still being very slow.
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Maren Morris “The Bones” 2. Sam Hunt “Kinfolks” 3-4. Kane Brown “Homesick” 3-4. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” 5-6. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” 5-6. Jake Owen “Homemade” 7. Jason Aldean “We Back” 8-9. Luke Bryan “What She Wants Tonight” 8-9. Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” (last week) 10-11. Brett Young “Catch” 10-11. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” 12. Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” 13. Riley Green “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” 14. Gabby Barrett “I Hope” 15. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” 16-17. Thomas Rhett & Jon Pardi “Beer Can’t Fix” 16-17. Morgan Wallen “Chasin’ You” 18. Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” 19. Travis Denning “After A Few” (last week?) (15% chance of going recurrent) 20. Luke Combs featuring Eric Church “Does To Me” 21. Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani “Nobody But You” 22. Ryan Hurd “To A T” 23. Scotty McCreery “In Between” 24. Eric Church “Monsters” 25-26. Michael Ray “Her World Or Mine” 25-26. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” (35% chance of going recurrent) 27. Carrie Underwood “Drinking Alone” 28. Justin Moore “Why We Drink” 29-30. Gone West “What Could’ve Been” (last week?) (25% chance of going recurrent) 29-30. Miranda Lambert “Bluebirds” 31-32. Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” (last week?) (25% chance of going recurrent) 31-32. Chase Rice “Lonely If You Are” 33. Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” 34-36. Chris Young “Drowning” 34-36. Billy Currington “Details” 34-36. Ashley McBryde “One Night Standards” 37-38. Kip Moore “She’s Mine” 37-38. Rayne Johnson “Front Seat” 39. Chris Janson “Done” 40-41. Jameson Rodgers “Some Girls” 40-41. Jon Langston “Now You Know” 42. Dillon Carmichael “I Do For You” 43-44. Midland “Cheating Songs” 43-44. Eli Young Band “Break It In” 45. Runaway June “Head Over Heels” 46-48. Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” 46-48. Matt Stell “Everywhere But On” 46-48. Brantley Gilbert “Fire’t Up” 49. Hot Country Knights featuring Travis Tritt “Pick Her Up” 50. Hardy featuring Lauren Alaina & Devin Dawson “One Beer” 51. Chris Lane “Big, Big Plans” 52-54. Parker McCollum “Pretty Heart” 52-54. Little Big Town “Over Drinking” 52-54. LANco “What I See” 55. Granger Smith “That’s Why I Love Dirt Roads” 56-57. Morgan Evans “Diamonds” 56-57. Lindsay Ell “I Don’t Love You” (last week?) 58. Tenille Arts “Somebody Like That” 59-60. Dustin Lynch “Momma’s House” (New!) 59-60. Brandon Lay “For My Money” (New!)
New and Active Section Lady Antebellum “What I’m Leaving For” Dylan Scott “Nobody” Sam Hunt “Hard To Forget” Adam Doleac “Famous” Mitchell Tenpenny featuring Seaforth “Anything She Says” Jackson Michelson “Stay Over”
Going Recurrent Or Drop Outs Dan + Shay & Justin Beiber “10,000 Hours” Peak #1 (2 weeks)/ Weeks: 19 Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” Peak #1 (5 weeks)/ Weeks: 27
Commentary This week’s chart is one where it is a bit historic, but with the charts being very, and I mean very unstable, as I can make the case for 4 songs (Travis Denning, Florida Georgia Line, Gone West, and Caylee Hammack) going recurrent Tuesday night, the charts are also very clogged up.
Now for the historic context, Maren Morris should score a second week on Billboard with “The Bones” becoming the first female lead song to score multiple Billboard weeks since “Better Man” in 2017 by Little Big Town and Maren Morris becomes the first solo female to #1 for multiple weeks since Carrie Underwood did so in October of 2012 with “Blown Away”. Congrats to Maren Morris, and hopefully it doesn’t take another 7 and a half years for a multi week solo female #1. In the runner up spot should be Sam Hunt with “Kinfolks” and he does have a slim chance of getting the #1 spot, but I think it will stay at #2. Now I do think Sam Hunt if the label wants to can get multiple weeks at #1 especially with Jimmie Allen and Kane Brown is probably about 8 million in terms of Billboard audience. There is a case for Sam Hunt to spend a second week.
Speaking of Jimmie Allen and Kane Brown, “Homesick” gets strong top 5 conversions and looks to temporarily pass “Make Me Want To” which struggled a bit this week. Rounding out the Top 5 is either “Dive Bar” or “Homemade” by Garth Brooks/Blake Shelton and Jake Owen respectively. I will say in regards to Garth Brooks push, yes it is ridiculous, however I do not think he has much of a shot at #1 on Billboard as there is a good 4 million audience gap between Garth Brooks and both of Jimmie Allen and Kane Brown, not to mention Sam Hunt is probably a good 12 million ahead of “Dive Bar”.
Below the Top 6 is where we begin to really feel the clogged chart, as both Jason Aldean and Luke Bryan essentially broke even in terms of gains as both men struggle to find their footing in the Top 10. Jon Pardi should get a final week on the chart as both songs going recurrent this week should rank #11 and #12 in terms of spins allowing “Heartache Medication” one last week on the chart. The new Top 10 entries should be the aforementioned “Dive Bar” and one of either “Catch” by Brett Young or “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” by Jordan Davis as neither has seen a great week.
In the teens Ingrid Andress, Riley Green, Carly Pearce/Lee Brice, Kelsea Ballerini, and Travis Denning (who has a decent chance to go recurrent but I think will get a grace week) all crawl in terms of gains and stay very stagnant despite probable new peaks on the chart. On the flipside Gabby Barrett, Thomas Rhett and especially the new duet from Luke Combs and Eric Church really pick up the gains as Gabby Barrett enters the Top 15 and the other 2 enter the Top 20. Also continuing to do well unsurprisingly is “Chasin’ You” by Morgan Wallen
In the 20s, singles from Ryan Hurd, Scotty McCreery, Michael Ray, Florida Georgia Line, Eric Church (the latter two who are at legit risk of going recurrent) struggle to gain any audience this week, which allows the Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani duet to move just below the Top 20 and should enter next week when Jon Pardi falls out. Carrie Underwood sees her best week in a long time with “Drinking Alone” as she cements herself into the Top 30. Gone West should enter the Top 30 on Billboard as should Miranda Lambert “Bluebird” with Miranda Lambert continuing to do a solid job week in and week out on the chart.
Caylee Hammack continues to struggle and stay just below the Top 30 as does Chase Rice as neither single moves in terms of gains. Despite the chart clog, Maddie & Tae borderline out of nowhere really surged this week with “Die From A Broken Heart” and if they keep this up they could be passing Caylee Hammack/Chase Rice sooner than later. Ashley McBryde also sees a solid week as she closes in on Chris Young and Billy Currington who continue to do nothing. Look for newcomer Jameson Rodgers to contend with the Top 40 as “Some Girls” should get a nice CT40 boost and for Kip Moore to enter the Top 40 as well with “She’s Mine”.
As for the rest of the chart, Runaway June should set a new peak with “Head Over Heels”, and despite an absolutely awful start for the week it looks like Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” should even out for the week and re-bullet. Hardy’s new single should launch itself into the Top 50 (also would be Devin Dawson’s first time in the Top 50 on country radio since his debut single “All On Me” back in early 2018). Lastly look for new entries from Dustin Lynch with “Momma’s House” and Brandon Lay “For My Money” as ironically despite the charts being clogged it only takes about 600k to enter the chart which is pretty standard.
Songs I see leaving soon Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” Travis Denning “After A Few” Ryan Hurd “To a T” Scotty McCreery “In Between” Caylee Hammack “Family Tree”
Songs In Danger Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” Gone West “What Could’ve Been” Billy Currington “Details” Eli Young Band “Break It In”
Songs I See Debuting/Returning Soon Old Dominion “Some People Do” Lady Antebellum “What I’m Leaving For” Russell Dickerson “Love You Like I Used To” Kenny Chesney “Here and Now” Sam Hunt “Hard To Forget”
Closing Thoughts Next week, most songs below the Top 10 are gonna have to enter survival mode as with Jon Pardi going recurrent being completely neutralized by the Kenny Chesney iHeartMedia debut and Maren Morris more than likely falling very slowly there is a very small amount of spins up for grabs, so don’t look for a ton of movement next week outside of usual suspects (Lady Antebellum, Luke Combs/Eric Church, Blake Shelton/Gwen Stefani, and to a lesser extent Hardy/Lauren Alaina/ Devin Dawson).
Stay tuned for next week’s predictions.
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musicspy
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Post by musicspy on Feb 16, 2020 15:50:44 GMT -5
I'm new to the country genre charts and don't mean to insult anyone, but what is this ongoing rage about country radio sexism? Over the last 6 months, there are quite many female songs in the top 20-30, and right now especially there are lots of female artists in the top 20. Agree, its not equal, like the CHR, but have a look at the urban or rock leaning formats' charts. I mean, why arent you people mad about that instead? 😜
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 16, 2020 16:37:38 GMT -5
I'm new to the country genre charts and don't mean to insult anyone, but what is this ongoing rage about country radio sexism? Over the last 6 months, there are quite many female songs in the top 20-30, and right now especially there are lots of female artists in the top 20. Agree, its not equal, like the CHR, but have a look at the urban or rock leaning formats' charts. I mean, why arent you people mad about that instead? 😜 I mean for most people here they tend to prefer female country singers over male, and while it is worse in other genres, that doesn't mean it is at an acceptable level for country music by any stretch. Looking at this past week's chart, including groups and features there is only 18 out of 60 credited female vocalists, one of which is pop (Gwen Stefani) and one the female artist is a backup singer ("One Beer"). The fact that the Top 60 is not even one third of female artists or groups is discouraging, and blatantly sexist. Not to mention on average out of all of the songs to make the Top 20 on country radio in a given year, women including features and groups only make up about 15% of the hits. I will say it is ongoing as well as it seems like ever since 2013 and especially 2014 that women are very sparse on country radio.
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