gardyfan
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Post by gardyfan on Nov 1, 2021 17:01:19 GMT -5
Of course "The Weight Of The Badge" is going to be allowed to re-enter, It has gained very significantly and will chart in the Top 40 for the very first time, Compared to it's original 2019 chart performance where it just missed the Top 50. But what's the difference between this and, say, all the old Christmas songs that get significant airplay for a few weeks every year? To the best of my knowledge, those songs never re-chart. They changed the rule for Christmas songs a few years back that once they go recurrent they cannot re-enter the Airplay chart.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Nov 1, 2021 18:26:18 GMT -5
Yeah I am gonna say this. I am probably done with predictions. I put so much work into them and at this point they are inaccurate and I can't get a read on anything, and the amount of work put into them (5 hours plus trying to figure this out) isn't worth it as it is not fun to watch any part of the charts when it is this inaccurate, and the work I put in feels hardly acknowledged since it feels like without me this thread would have been dead pretty long ago.
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gardyfan
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Post by gardyfan on Nov 1, 2021 18:28:57 GMT -5
Sorry, but I understand. I always read them when I saw them posted and it gave me insight on what would happen.
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Drew
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Post by Drew on Nov 4, 2021 18:26:37 GMT -5
Sorry, you feel that way. For what it's worth, I always enjoyed reading your chart predictions each week.
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Nov 4, 2021 18:58:47 GMT -5
Yeah I am gonna say this. I am probably done with predictions. I put so much work into them and at this point they are inaccurate and I can't get a read on anything, and the amount of work put into them (5 hours plus trying to figure this out) isn't worth it as it is not fun to watch any part of the charts when it is this inaccurate, and the work I put in feels hardly acknowledged since it feels like without me this thread would have been dead pretty long ago. I’ll miss your posts. Sorry you felt that way though. Your posts every Sunday was always something I looked forward too.
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Nov 4, 2021 19:23:16 GMT -5
Yeah I am gonna say this. I am probably done with predictions. I put so much work into them and at this point they are inaccurate and I can't get a read on anything, and the amount of work put into them (5 hours plus trying to figure this out) isn't worth it as it is not fun to watch any part of the charts when it is this inaccurate, and the work I put in feels hardly acknowledged since it feels like without me this thread would have been dead pretty long ago. I enjoy reading the posts, but if it's not bringing you enjoyment, you should stop
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Nov 7, 2021 10:11:25 GMT -5
I did try a new method to my predictions and guessing/estimating where every song ends up on the chart and if people want I can show my predictions as the new method I used was a lot more fun for me to do (in case people are wondering I looked at both audience and spin gains on Mediabase and tried to have a range of audience on Billboard for every song factoring in both as a song gaining a solid amount of spins but losing audience on Mediabase tends to indicate a small audience loss or gain on Billboard.)
So if people want to see my predictions badly, I'll post the predictions (and audience range for each song) as I think this way of doing it could be good imo.
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Nov 7, 2021 11:14:18 GMT -5
I did try a new method to my predictions and guessing/estimating where every song ends up on the chart and if people want I can show my predictions as the new method I used was a lot more fun for me to do (in case people are wondering I looked at both audience and spin gains on Mediabase and tried to have a range of audience on Billboard for every song factoring in both as a song gaining a solid amount of spins but losing audience on Mediabase tends to indicate a small audience loss or gain on Billboard.) So if people want to see my predictions badly, I'll post the predictions (and audience range for each song) as I think this way of doing it could be good imo. I’d love to see them if it isn’t too much work for you.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Nov 7, 2021 11:45:09 GMT -5
I love seeing your predictions! I wait every Sunday to see them.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Nov 7, 2021 14:53:52 GMT -5
Here we go, since it seems like people want me to. I will only do a Top 40 though just to be safe
Billboard Country Airplay Top 40 1. Walker Hayes "Fancy Like" (28.86 to 29.35) 2. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood "If I Didn't Love You" (27.67 to 28.08) 3. Zac Brown Band "Same Boat" (24.54 to 24.96) 4-5. Luke Combs "Cold As You" (22.9 to 23.13) 4-5. Ryan Hurd & Maren Morris "Chasing After You" (22.77 to 23.13) 6. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" (21.74 to 22.28) 7. Kenny Chesney "Knowing You" (19.82 to 20.04) 8. Jon Pardi "Tequila Little Time" (18.55 to 18.77) 9. Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan "Buy Dirt" (16.05 to 16.54) 10-11. Old Dominion "I Was On A Boat That Day" (15.4 to 15.84) (last week) 10-11. Michael Ray "Whiskey and Rain" (15.39 to 15.80) 12. Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley "Freedom Was A Highway" (13.85 to 14.20) 13. Chris Stapleton "You Should Probably Leave" (13.28 to 13.52) 14-16. Kane Brown "One Mississippi" (11.71 to 11.84) 14-16. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" (11.66 to 11.79) 14-16. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" (11.57 to 11.82) 17. Priscilla Block "Just About Over You" (10.49 to 10.85) 18. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" (8.90 to 9.13) 19-20. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" (8.44 to 8.70) 19-20. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" (8.29 to 8.60) 21-23. Callista Clark "It's Cause I Am" (7.39 to 7.71) 21-23. Eric Church "Hearts On Fire" (7.21 to 7.56) 21-23. Sam Hunt "23" (7.20 to 7.32) 24. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" (6.49 to 6.78) (New!) 25. HARDY "Give Heaven Some Hell" (4.68 to 4.83) 26-27. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" (4.33 to 4.66) 26-27. Dierks Bentley, Breland, & HARDY "Beers On Me" (4.23 to 4.46 28. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" (3.9 to 4.1) 29-30. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads" (3.53 to 3.75) 29-30. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde (3.27 to 3.64) 31-32. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" (3.04 to 3.19) 31-32. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" (2.89 to 3.23) 33. Dan + Shay "Steal My Love" (2.66 to 2.80) 34-35. Luke Bryan "Up" (2.38 to 2.56) 34-35. Tim McGraw "7500 OBO" (2.27 to 2.48) 36. Lauren Alaina & Jon Pardi "Getting Over Him" (2.05 to 2.21) 37-38. Caitlyn Smith & Old Dominion "I Can't" (1.92 to 2) 37-38. Toby Keith "Old School (1.85 to 1.96) 39-40. Tenille Arts "Back Then, Right Now" (1.76 to 1.84) 39-40. Frank Ray "Country'd Look Good On You" (1.74 to 1.81)
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Nov 8, 2021 6:38:39 GMT -5
Curious if IIDLY will get a third week on top. It’s still ahead of Fancy Like on audience on Mediabase.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Nov 8, 2021 19:32:31 GMT -5
So I was a bit higher on audience in general but besides that and missing Old Dominion going recurrent (they were only 56k from #10 so eh I am not too annoyed missing it.) I think my predictions were pretty solid.
I am gonna stick with a Top 40 just fyi, as it is a lot easier but I do think this week and doing the ranges made me excited for doing predictions.
On that note, I would not expect anyone to go recurrent on Billboard next week. Jason/Carrie have a long way to fall before leaving, struggling singles from Jimmie Allen/Brad Paisley and Priscilla Block I expect to hang in there for a couple more weeks. Lauren Alaina and Caitlyn Smith are both hanging on by a thread, but Lauren got an add on Mediabase and with "Fancy Like" falling I imagine Monument Records is gonna focus completely on the Caitlyn Smith song.
With all that being said, I don't expect much movement on the chart with no recurrents beyond just a few shuffles here and there, with maybe some of the lower charting songs being pushed out at best (Kameron Marlowe or maybe Midland).
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gardyfan
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Post by gardyfan on Nov 8, 2021 19:34:33 GMT -5
Do you think Priscilla Block will get to 70 weeks?
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Nov 8, 2021 19:46:11 GMT -5
Do you think Priscilla Block will get to 70 weeks? I think she makes it to the Christmas Slowdown and then she's out. I hope "Just About Over You" can hang in there and get a Top 10 peak but I am not the most optimistic.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Nov 21, 2021 10:34:13 GMT -5
Question: Do you guys want a Top 40 or Top 60 for this week?
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Nov 21, 2021 10:40:30 GMT -5
Top 60!
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Nov 21, 2021 10:42:54 GMT -5
Top 60 please!
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Nov 21, 2021 11:03:18 GMT -5
Top 60!
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Nov 21, 2021 11:17:08 GMT -5
Top 100 and I want it yesterday. Merci!
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Nov 21, 2021 11:22:54 GMT -5
Top 100 and I want it yesterday. Merci! That's impossible and it's a 60 position chart. Not 100
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Nov 21, 2021 11:32:25 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Luke Combs "Cold As You" 2. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood "If I Didn't Love You" 3. Zac Brown Band "Same Boat" 4. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" 5. Ryan Hurd & Maren Morris "Chasing After You" 6. Kenny Chesney "Knowing You" 7-8. Jon Pardi "Tequila Little Time" 7-8. Michael Ray "Whiskey and Rain" 9. Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan "Buy Dirt" 10. Walker Hayes "Fancy Like" (last week) 11-12. Chris Stapleton "You Should Probably Leave" 11-12. Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley "Freedom Was A Highway" 13-14. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" 13-14. Kane Brown "One Mississippi" 15. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" 16. Priscilla Block "Just About Over You" 17-18. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" 17-18. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" 19. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" 20-21. Eric Church "Heart On Fire" 20-21. Sam Hunt "23" 22. Callista Clark "It's Cause I Am" 23. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson "Never Say Never" (New!) 24. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" 25. Adele "Easy On Me" (New!) 26. Hardy "Give Heaven Some Hell" 27-31. Dierks Bentley, Breland & Hardy "Beers On Me" 27-31. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" 27-31. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" 27-31. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" 27-31. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads" 32-33. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" 32-33. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" 34. Dan + Shay "Steal My Love" 35. Luke Bryan "Up" 36. Tim McGraw "7500 OBO" 37. Lauren Alaina & Jon Pardi "Getting Over Him" 38. Toby Keith "Old School" (last week?) 39-41. Frank Ray "Country Looks Good On You" 39-41. Caitlyn Smith & Old Dominion "I Can't" (last week?) 39-41. Tenille Arts "Back Then, Right Now" 42. Brothers Osborne "I'm Not For Everyone" 43. Drew Parker "While You're Gone" 44. Chris Lane "Fill Them Boots" 45-49. Dylan Scott "New Truck" 45-49. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny "At The End Of A Bar" 45-49. Scotty McCreery "Damn Straight" 45-49. Chris Janson "Bye Mom" 45-49. Darius Rucker "My Masterpiece" (last week?) 50-53. Nate Barnes "You Ain't Pretty" 50-53. Parmalee "Take My Name" 50-53. Justin Moore "With A Woman You Love" 50-53. Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton "I Bet You Think About Me" 54. Gabby Barrett "Footprints On The Moon" 55. Chase Rice "If I Were Rock & Roll" 56. Morgan Wade "Wilder Days" 57. Niko Moon "Paradise To Me" 58. Aaron Lewis "Am I The Only One" 59-60. Cam "Til There's Nothing Left" (last week?) 59-60. Caroline Jones "Come In (But Don't Make Yourself Comfortable)"
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Nov 28, 2021 14:53:46 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" 2. Zac Brown Band "Same Boat" 3. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood "If I Didn't Love You" 4. Luke Combs "Cold As You" 5. Kenny Chesney "Knowing You" 6. Ryan Hurd & Maren Morris "Chasing After You" (last week?) 7-8. Michael Ray "Whiskey and Rain" 7-8. Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan "Buy Dirt" 9. Jon Pardi "Tequila Little Time" 10. Chris Stapleton "You Should Probably Leave" 11. Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley "Freedom Was A Highway" 12. Kane Brown "One Mississippi" 13. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" 14. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" 15. Priscilla Block "Just About Over You" 16-18. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" 16-18. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" 16-18. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" 19. Eric Church "Heart On Fire" 20. Sam Hunt "23" 21. Callista Clark "It's Cause I Am" 22. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" 23-25. Dierks Bentley, Breland & Hardy "Beers On Me" 23-25. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" 23-25. Hardy "Give Heaven Some Hell" 26-27. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" 26-27. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" 28. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads" 29-30. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" 29-30. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" 31. Luke Bryan "Up" 32. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson "Never Say Never" 33. Dan + Shay "Steal My Love" 34. Lauren Alaina & Jon Pardi "Getting Over Him" 35. Tim McGraw "7500 OBO" 36. Frank Ray "Country Looks Good On You" 37. Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton "I Bet You Think About Me" 38. Brothers Osborne "I'm Not For Everyone" 39. Tenille Arts "Back Then, Right Now" 40. Toby Keith "Old School" (last week?) 41. Dylan Scott "New Truck" 42. Scotty McCreery "Damn Straight" 43-44. Chris Lane "Fill Them Boots" 43-44. Darius Rucker "My Masterpiece" (last week) 45-46. Chris Janson "Bye Mom" 45-46. Drew Parker "While You're Gone" 47. Parmalee "Take My Name" 48. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny "At The End Of A Bar" 49-52. Nate Barnes "You Ain't Pretty" (last week?) 49-52. Niko Moon "Paradise To Me" 49-52. Justin Moore "With A Woman You Love" 49-52. Adele & Chris Stapleton "Easy On Me" 53-55. Chase Rice "If I Were Rock & Roll" 53-55. Luke Combs "Doin' This" 53-55. Caroline Jones "Come In (But Don't Make Yourself Comfortable)" 56. Midland "Sunrise Tells The Story" 57. Morgan Wade "Wilder Days" 58-59. Kameron Marlowe "Giving You Up" (Re-Entry!) 58-59. Morgan Evans "Love Is Real" (Re-Entry!) 60. Walker Hayes "AA" (New!)
New & Active Dillon Carmichael "Son Of A" Brett Young "You Didn't" Joe Nichols "Home Run" Mitchell Tenpenny "Truth About You" Laci Kaye Booth "Shuffle" Jameson Rodgers "Missing One"
Going Recurrent/Drop-Outs Caitlyn Smith & Old Dominion "I Can't" Peak #37, Weeks: 40 Aaron Lewis "Am I The Only One" Peak #52, Weeks: 11 Cam "Til There's Nothing Left" Peak #47, Weeks: 16
Commentary This week feels like a reset week of sorts. Two huge debuts settle back to their natural positions and a few songs leave the chart for good. Now there's only a few weeks left before the charts freeze and time will tell who stays, who debuts and who's out within the next couple weeks.
At the top of the chart should be "Thinking Bout You" by Dustin Lynch/Mackenzie Porter as they outgained the song pushing for #1 "Same Boat" by the Zac Brown Band in terms of audience so Dustin and Mackenzie should be at #1 and ZBB should be at #2. Taking the bronze medal should be the mega smash "If I Didn't Love You" with Jason Aldean/Carrie Underwood as it continues to barely fall down in terms of audience losses. All that being said, I don't think with "Thinking Bout You" ahead I don't see Jason/Carrie spending another week at #1. Last weeks #1, Luke Combs "Cold As You" should fall to #4 as it starts its slow but solid descent down the chart. Rounding out the Top 5 should be Kenny Chesney "Knowing You" as it looks to aim for #1 next week.
Ryan Hurd & Maren Morris second drop week should knock it out of the Top 5, and if it loses the amount of spins it should lose this next week it stands a solid chance to go recurrent. If Ryan/Maren don't go recurrent next week then for sure the following week they are out. Michael Ray "Whiskey and Rain", Jordan Davis/Luke Bryan "Buy Dirt, and Chris Stapleton "You Should Probably Leave", continue to gain a solid amount of Top 10 conversions while Jon Pardi "Tequila Little Time" falls behind and Jimmie Allen/Brad Paisley "Freedom Was A Highway" just completely falls flat on its face.
In the teens, Kane Brown "One Mississippi" continues to gain very well on the charts while singles from Morgan Wallen and Kelsea Ballerini/Kenny Chesney slow a bit more. Rounding out the Top 15 for a second week is Priscilla Block's "Just About Over You" who continues to just barely hang in there. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet", Elle King/Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)", and Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" continue to swap positions with each other. Eric Church and Sam Hunt should once again round out the Top 20 as both "Hearts On Fire" and "23" continue to gain pretty well.
For the 20s, Callista Clark like Priscilla Block (ironically both solo women on their debut singles) is barely hanging in there continues to barely stay afloat. Big collaborations from Dierks Bentley and Carly Pearce continue to gain very well in the 20s as both look to be in the Top 20 sooner than later, as HARDY, Keith Urban, and Jake Owen struggle to gain much traction. Cody Johnson enters the Top 30 in his 9th week as "Til You Can't" continues to do very well.
Lastly in the bottom half of the chart singles from Luke Bryan, shockingly Lauren Alaina/Jon Pardi, Frank Ray, Taylor Swift, Dylan Scott, and Parmalee, have very great week of gains and all should easily make it into the new year. I will say right now the singles below the Top 30 that could be let go of before the end of the year are Brothers Osborne "I'm Not For Everyone" (they have never had a good week on the chart after 30 weeks as of tomorrow), Toby Keith "Old School" (another weak song not doing much), Darius Rucker "My Masterpiece" (with how negative the bullet is on Mediabase I think this week could be the last week), and Nate Barnes "You Ain't Pretty".
Next week there's a lot of songs either hanging on by a thread (Darius Rucker, Nate Barnes, Toby Keith, Brothers Osborne), freefalling off the charts (Ryan/Maren, next week ZBB,) or not doing much (Priscilla Block, Callista Clark, HARDY, Tenille Arts, Chris Lane, Drew Parker). Now obviously not all of them will go recurrent, hell at most maybe 1, maybe 2, but these are definitely the songs to keep on next week to see if the labels give any of them up or Ryan/Maren fall below the Top 10.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Dec 5, 2021 11:26:03 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" 2. Kenny Chesney "Knowing You" 3. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood "If I Didn't Love You" 4-5. Zac Brown Band "Same Boat" 4-5. Luke Combs "Cold As You" 6. Michael Ray "Whiskey and Rain" 7. Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan "Buy Dirt" 8. Jon Pardi "Tequila Little Time" 9. Chris Stapleton "You Should Probably Leave" 10. Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley "Freedom Was A Highway" 11. Kane Brown "One Mississippi" 12-13. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" 12-13. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" 14. Priscilla Block "Just About Over You" 15-17. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" 15-17. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" 15-17. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" 18. Eric Church "Heart On Fire" 19. Sam Hunt "23" 20. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" 21. Callista Clark "It's Cause I Am" (last week?) 22. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" 23-24. Hardy "Give Heaven Some Hell" 23-24. Dierks Bentley, Breland & Hardy "Beers On Me" 25. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" 26. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" 27. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" 28. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" 29-30. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson "Never Say Never" 29-30. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads" 31. Luke Bryan "Up" 32. Dan + Shay "Steal My Love" 33. Lauren Alaina & Jon Pardi "Getting Over Him" 34. Tim McGraw "7500 OBO" 35. Frank Ray "Country Looks Good On You" 36-37. Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton "I Bet You Think About Me" 36-37. Brothers Osborne "I'm Not For Everyone" 38. Toby Keith "Old School" 39. Dylan Scott "New Truck" 40. Scotty McCreery "Damn Straight" 41. Tenille Arts "Back Then, Right Now" 42-43. Drew Parker "While You're Gone" 42-43. Lee Brice “Soul” (New!) 44-45. Parmalee "Take My Name" 44-45. Chris Lane "Fill Them Boots" (last week?) 46-47. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny "At The End Of A Bar" 46-47. Chris Janson "Bye Mom” 48. Walker Hayes "AA" 49-52. Nate Barnes "You Ain't Pretty" 49-52. Adele & Chris Stapleton "Easy On Me" 49-52. Niko Moon "Paradise To Me" 49-52. Justin Moore "With A Woman You Love" 53. Caroline Jones "Come In (But Don't Make Yourself Comfortable)" 54-57. Morgan Wade "Wilder Days" 54-57. Luke Combs "Doin' This" 54-57. Chase Rice "If I Were Rock & Roll" 54-57. Midland "Sunrise Tells The Story" 58-60. Kameron Marlowe "Giving You Up" 58-60. Morgan Evans "Love Is Real" 58-60. Brett Young “You Didn’t”
New & Active Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A” Joe Nichols “Home Run” Laci Kaye Booth “Shuffle” Mitchell Tenpenny “Truth About You” Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” Conner Smith “Learn From It”
Going Recurrent/Drop Outs Ryan Hurd & Maren Morris “Chasing After You” Peak #2, Weeks: 39
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gardyfan
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Post by gardyfan on Dec 5, 2021 12:14:14 GMT -5
How close is it for #1 this week right now? I know Kenny got past Dustin on Mediabase and I'm guessing that will hold up.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Dec 5, 2021 12:55:48 GMT -5
How close is it for #1 this week right now? I know Kenny got past Dustin on Mediabase and I'm guessing that will hold up. My best guess is probably that Kenny Chesney is a full million behind in audience on Billboard on average. Maybe a bit more, add in "Thinking Bout You" getting CCUSA bonus spin this weekend (Dustin is co-hosting) and I am like 98% sure Dustin will get to #1 on Billboard
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Dec 11, 2021 7:33:41 GMT -5
Hey I am gonna do a Top 30 as I am busy this weekend so I won't be able to do a full Top 60 this week, rest assured I will do a full chart next weekend. I am so sorry if you are let down but for now here's a quick Top 30 prediction for the chart Monday night.
Billboard Country Airplay Top 30 1. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" 2-3. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood "If I Didn't Love You" 2-3. Michael Ray "Whiskey and Rain" 4. Luke Combs "Cold As You" 5-7. Zac Brown Band "Same Boat" (last week) 5-7. Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan "Buy Dirt" 5-7. Chris Stapleton "You Should Probably Leave" 8-9. Jon Pardi "Tequila Little Time" 8-9. Kenny Chesney "Knowing You" (last week) 10-11. Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley "Freedom Was A Highway" 10-11. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" 12. Kane Brown "One Mississippi" 13. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" 14. Priscilla Block "Just About Over You" 15-17. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" 15-17. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" 15-17. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" 18. Eric Church "Heart On Fire" 19. Sam Hunt "23" 20. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" 21. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" 22. Callista Clark "It's Cause I Am" 23-24. Dierks Bentley, Breland & Hardy "Beers On Me" 23-24. Hardy "Give Heaven Some Hell" 25-26. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson "Never Say Never" 25-26. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" 27-28. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" 27-28. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" 29. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" 30. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads"
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seak05
2x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2016
Posts: 2,178
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Post by seak05 on Dec 11, 2021 13:42:04 GMT -5
Thanks for doing this. Definitely not letting anyone down. Enjoy your activities this weekend
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raylatch98
7x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2018
Posts: 7,753
Pronouns: He/Him/His
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Post by raylatch98 on Dec 19, 2021 10:05:56 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" 2-3. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood "If I Didn't Love You" 2-3. Michael Ray "Whiskey and Rain" 4-5. Chris Stapleton "You Should Probably Leave" 4-5. Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan "Buy Dirt" 6. Luke Combs "Cold As You" (last week?) 7. Jon Pardi "Tequila Little Time" 8. Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley "Freedom Was A Highway" 9. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" 10. Kane Brown "One Mississippi" 11. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" 12. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" 13. Eric Church "Heart On Fire" 14-15. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" 14-15. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" 16. Sam Hunt "23" 17-18. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" 17-18. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" 19. Dierks Bentley, Breland & Hardy "Beers On Me" 20. Callista Clark "It's Cause I Am" 21-24. Hardy "Give Heaven Some Hell" 21-24. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson "Never Say Never" 21-24. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" 21-24. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" 25. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" 26. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" 27. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads" 28. Luke Bryan "Up" 29-31. Walker Hayes "AA" 29-31. Dan + Shay "Steal My Love" 29-31. Lauren Alaina & Jon Pardi "Getting Over Him" 32. Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton "I Bet You Think About Me" 33. Tim McGraw "7500 OBO" 34. Scotty McCreery "Damn Straight" 35-36. Dylan Scott "New Truck" 35-36. Frank Ray "Country Looks Good On You" 37. Brothers Osborne "I'm Not For Everyone" 38. Adele & Chris Stapleton "Easy On Me" 39-40. Tenille Arts "Back Then, Right Now" 39-40. Toby Keith "Old School" 41. Parmalee "Take My Name" 42. Drew Parker "While You're Gone" 43-44. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny "At The End Of A Bar" 43-44. Luke Combs "Doin' This" 45. Chris Janson "Bye Mom” 46. Chris Lane "Fill Them Boots" 47-48. Lee Brice “Soul” 47-48. Justin Moore "With A Woman You Love" 49-51. Nate Barnes "You Ain't Pretty" 49-51. Morgan Wade "Wilder Days" 49-51. Chase Rice "If I Were Rock & Roll" 52. Caroline Jones "Come In (But Don't Make Yourself Comfortable)" 53-54. Niko Moon "Paradise To Me" 53-54. Morgan Evans "Love Is Real" 55-57. Midland "Sunrise Tells The Story" 55-57. Brett Young “You Didn’t” 55-57. Old Dominion “No Hard Feelings” (New!) 58. Kameron Marlowe "Giving You Up" 59-60. Mitchell Tenpenny “Truth About You” (New!) 59-60. Ingrid Andress & Sam Hunt “Wishful Drinking” (New!)
New & Active Laci Kaye Booth “Shuffle” Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” Conner Smith “Learn From It” Chayce Beckhan & Lindsay Ell “Can’t Do Without Me” Ray Fulcher “Girl In It” Hannah Ellis “Us”
Going Recurrent/Drop Outs Zac Brown Band “Same Boat” Peak #1, Weeks: 27 Kenny Chesney “Knowing You” Peak #1, Weeks: 40 Priscilla Block “Just About Over You” Peak #14, Weeks: 64
Note: Due to Christmas music I am going to only do Top 30 predictions for the next couple of weeks as the bottom of the chart gets very wonky when Christmas music gets involved. After that I will go back to regular Top 60. But for now please enjoy these predictions.
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christianlarson9
Platinum Member
Pop/Country music fan.
Joined: May 2021
Posts: 1,034
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Post by christianlarson9 on Dec 19, 2021 16:33:11 GMT -5
Excited to see "Wishful Drinking" potentially debuting! Rooting hard for it to be a big hit in 2022.
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Sugar Rush
New Member
Joined: January 2017
Posts: 466
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Post by Sugar Rush on Dec 19, 2021 23:16:40 GMT -5
If I Didn't Love You is really turning into a massive hit is it?
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