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Post by countryman87 on Mar 15, 2014 12:56:30 GMT -5
Here are my predictions for the 3/29 BB airplay chart (top 40).
1. Helluva Life - Frankie Ballard 2. Doin What She Likes - Blake Shelton 3. I Hold On - Dierks Bentley 4. Goodnight Kiss - Randy Houser 5. Everything I Shouldn't Be Thinking About - Thompson Square 6. Compass - Lady Antebellum (last week) 7. When She Says Baby - Jason Aldean (last week) 8. Drink To That All Night - Jerrod Niemann 9. See You Tonight - Scotty McCreery (last week) 10. Rewind - Rascal Flatts 11. Give Me Back My Hometown - Eric Church 12. Beat Of The Music - Brett Eldredge 13. Bottoms Up - Brantley Gilbert 14. 19 U + Me - Dan + Shay 15. Get Me Some Of That - Thomas Rhett 16. This Is How We Roll - Florida Georgia Line/Luke Bryan 17. Cop Car - Keith Urban 18. Automatic - Miranda Lambert 19. Letting The Night Roll - Justin Moore 20. The Mona Lisa - Brad Paisley 21. Wake Up Loving You - Craig Morgan 22. Slow Me Down - Sara Evans 23. Invisible - Hunter Hayes 24. Young Love - Kip Moore 25. Lookin For That Girl - Tim McGraw 26. Keep Them Kisses Coming - Craig Campbell 27. Whiskey In My Water - Tyler Farr 28. Play It Again - Luke Bryan 29. Beachin - Jake Owen 30. We Are Tonight - Billy Currington 31. Calling Me When I'm Lonely - Sheryl Crow 32. Who I Am With You - Chris Young 33. Yeah - Joe Nichols 34. Sober - Little Big Town 35. Dust - Eli Young Band 36. Chainsaw - The Band Perry 37. I Got A Car - George Strait 38. Want Me Too - Charlie Worsham 39. Us Again - Chuck Wicks 40. Song About A Girl - Eric Paslay
I have Leah Turner going recurrent this week and Gary Allan slipping out of the top 40. Frankie Ballard had a big week and should score his 1st #1 hit. Blake should be in line for #1 next week. Dierks has slowed down this week but should be still in top 3. Looks like Scotty is running out of gas and is heading down now. Luke Bryan should blast up several spots into the top 30. George Strait has struggled this week he's down 200k on MB so far he should get a grace week if he don't bullet. Tough week for movement on the chart this week but it looks like another housecleaning could be coming next week.
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dajire4
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If you got such great ambition, then why are you still hanging around?
Joined: December 2011
Posts: 1,228
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Post by dajire4 on Apr 1, 2014 9:21:55 GMT -5
Right now, the top 10 is so vomit-inducing for me. The only saving graces are falling tunes by Thompson Square and Dierks Bentley and, to a lesser extent, Randy Houser's Goodnight Kiss & Brett Eldredge's Beat Of The Music. However, it is encouraging to see some female newcomers(Natalie Stovall, Maggie Rose, Lucy Hale, Cassadee Pope) making inroads in the top 50 at the same time. Let's hope they keep moving up while the bro tunes move out
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someguy
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Posts: 16,024
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Post by someguy on Apr 5, 2014 19:57:05 GMT -5
Here's my guess at Monday's BCU:
1. Doin' What She Likes 2. Goodnight Kiss 3. Drink To That All Night 4. Bottoms Up 5. Give Me Back My Hometown 6. Rewind 7. Get Me Some Of That 8. This Is How We Roll 9. Beat Of The Music 10. Automatic 11. Cop Car 12. 19 You + Me 13. Play It Again 14. Lettin' The Night Roll 15. Lookin' For That Girl 16. Slow Me Down 17. Wake Up Lovin' You 18. Keep Them Kisses Comin' 19. Whiskey In My Water 20. Chainsaw
21. Invisible 22. We Are Tonight 23. Beachin' 24. Who I Am With You 25. Yeah 26. Callin' Me When I'm Lonely 27. River Bank (highest debut) 28. Dust 29. Song About A Girl 30. Later On 31. Want Me Too 32. I Got A Car 33. I Don't Dance 34. Hope You Get Lonely Tonight 35. Us Again 36. Ready Set Roll 37. Look At You 38. The South 39. Clockwork 40. I Wish I Could Break Your Heart
41. Close Your Eyes 42. Kiss You Tonight 43. Baby Come On With It 44. Where It's At 45. What I Can't Put Down 46. Best Night Ever 47. You Look Good To Me 48. Keep It To Yourself 49. Looking Back Now 50. Famous 51. Night That You'll Never Forget (debut) 52. Rum 53. Makin' This Boy Go Crazy 54. Why God Made Love Songs 55. Medicine 56. Miss You (last week) 57. This Nothin' Town (debut) 58. How Could I Want More 59. Raise Em Up 60. Closer To Nowhere
Dierks Bentley, Thompson Square and Gary Allan should all go recurrent. The threshold for the bottom of the chart is very low. I think Jason Aldean may sneak in there (especially if its announced as his new single tomorrow), but Katie Armiger and Eric Church are also possibilities.
I didn't know where to put Brad, going off of just one day, but I imagine that he'll do well this weekend. This will definitely be Darius' last week, and I think that Dan + Shay are really running into trouble now, too. With Miranda and Keith both likely going ahead of them, their chances at making the top 10 are rapidly diminishing.
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Post by countryman87 on Apr 6, 2014 21:14:57 GMT -5
I'll say Blake will hang on to #1 for a 2nd week. I'm surprised Randy Houser didn't make a bigger push to get to #1 this week. Jerrod had a huge week but should still be at #3. Brantley and Eric should round out top 5. Dierks and Thompson Square will head to recurrent land for sure and Gary may join them but I'm thinking he'll get a grace week. Brad Paisley will be highest debut with "River Bank" I have it at #29.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Apr 6, 2014 21:17:45 GMT -5
I'll say Blake will hang on to #1 for a 2nd week. I'm surprised Randy Houser didn't make a bigger push to get to #1 this week. Jerrod had a huge week but should still be at #3. Brantley and Eric should round out top 5. Dierks and Thompson Square will head to recurrent land for sure and Gary may join them but I'm thinking he'll get a grace week. Brad Paisley will be highest debut with "River Bank" I have it at #29. Gary got a grace week last week though, so if Billboard follow their own rules (who knows if they will) he should be gone if he doesn't gain this week.
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Post by countryman87 on Apr 6, 2014 23:36:42 GMT -5
I'll say Blake will hang on to #1 for a 2nd week. I'm surprised Randy Houser didn't make a bigger push to get to #1 this week. Jerrod had a huge week but should still be at #3. Brantley and Eric should round out top 5. Dierks and Thompson Square will head to recurrent land for sure and Gary may join them but I'm thinking he'll get a grace week. Brad Paisley will be highest debut with "River Bank" I have it at #29. Gary got a grace week last week though, so if Billboard follow their own rules (who knows if they will) he should be gone if he doesn't gain this week. Gary got a bullet last week tho he was down about 100k in audience but did gain 1 spin to keep its bullet.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2014 23:46:14 GMT -5
^Correct. Gary was bulleted on Monday's Billboard. I don't think he will go recurrent tomorrow. The song hasn't even lost 50k on Mediabase this week. It's not going anywhere, but it's not falling either.
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Post by countryman87 on Apr 13, 2014 9:58:42 GMT -5
My guesses for tommorrows BB airplay chart.
Jerrod Niemann should get his 2nd #1 hit. Randy Houser looks to spend a 3rd week at #2 and likely where he'll peak at. Brantley Gilbert should move up to #3. Looks like Dan + Shay will get a grace week and likely their last week on chart. Tim McGraw and Charlie Worsham in trouble looks like but still have at least a couple weeks left. Gary Allan looks to be the only recurrent this week with Dustin Lynch taking his spot. I'll say Blake's new one gets in top 40 knocking Chuck Wicks below the top 40. Looks like it'll be a slow week on the chart this week.
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Apr 14, 2014 17:27:12 GMT -5
Chart Highlights Country Airplay *** No. 1 (1 week)*** "Drink To That All Night" Jerrod Niemann Nearly four years after scoring his first No. 1, Jerrod Niemann returns to the Country Airplay chart summit with "Drink to That All Night," which lifts 3-1. Niemann achieved his first No. 1 with "Lover, Lover," which dominated the Aug. 14, 2010, list. In between, his best showing was a No. 4 peak three years ago with "What Do You Want" (May 7, 2011). Greatest Gainer No. 6 "Get Me Some Of That" Thomas Rhett Debut No. 39 "My Eyes" Blake Shelton Featuring Gwen Sebastian Debut No. 54 "Feelin' It" Scotty McCreery
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2014 0:07:16 GMT -5
Top 60 Projections for tomorrow's 05/31 Billboard Country Airplay chart:
1-3) Rascal Flatts – “Rewind” (44.700) 1-3) Luke Bryan – “Play It Again” (44.530) 1-3) Florida Georgia Line f/ Luke Bryan – “This Is How We Roll” (44.310) 4) Thomas Rhett – “Get Me Some Of That” (41.120) 5) Brett Eldredge – “Beat Of The Music” (38.930) 6) Miranda Lambert – “Automatic” (38.170) 7) Justin Moore – “Lettin’ The Night Roll” (35.740) 8) Keith Urban – “Cop Car” (29.520) 9) Eric Church – “Give Me Back My Hometown” (28.030) [last week] 10) Jake Owen – “Beachin’” (25.800) 11-12) Tyler Farr – “Whiskey In My Water” (24.580) 11-12) Craig Campbell – “Keep Them Kisses Comin’” (24.370) 13) The Band Perry – “Chainsaw” (23.020) 14) Craig Morgan – “Wake Up Lovin’ You” (22.060) 15) Blake Shelton f/ Gwen Sebastian – “My Eyes” (21.430) 16-17) Chris Young – “Who I Am With You” (20.800) 16-17) Billy Currington – “We Are Tonight” (20.450) 18) Brad Paisley – “River Bank” (18.840) 19) Joe Nichols – “Yeah” (16.440) 20) Hunter Hayes – “Invisible” (14.320) 21) Dustin Lynch – “Where It’s At” (13.740) 22-23) Eric Paslay – “Song About A Girl” (13.220) 22-23) George Strait – “I Got A Car” (13.140) 24) Lee Brice – “I Don’t Dance” (12.650) 25) Eli Young Band – “Dust” (10.820) 26-27) The Swon Brothers – “Later On” (9.170) 26-27) Tim McGraw f/ Faith Hill – “Meanwhile Back At Mama’s” (9.010) 28) Chase Rice – “Ready, Set, Roll” (8.760) 29-30) Dierks Bentley – “Drunk On A Plane” (8.380) 29-30) Brantley Gilbert f/ Thomas Rhett & Justin Moore – “Small Town Throwdown” (8.350) [NEW!] 31) Cole Swindell – “Hope You Get Lonely Tonight” (7.160) 32-33) Big & Rich – “Look At You” (6.260) 32-33) Frankie Ballard – “Sunshine & Whiskey” (6.070) 34) Zac Brown Band – “All Alright” (5.470) 35-36) The Cadillac Three & Friends – “The South” (4.580) 35-36) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (4.510) 37) Cassadee Pope – “I Wish I Could Break Your Heart” (3.860) 38) Easton Corbin – “Clockwork” (3.460) 39) Kacey Musgraves – “Keep It To Yourself” (2.870) 40-42) Scotty McCreery – “Feelin’ It” (2.690) 40-42) Dan + Shay – “Show You Off” (2.640) 40-42) David Nail – “Kiss You Tonight” (2.480) 43-47) Jon Pardi – “What I Can’t Put Down” (2.240) 43-47) Natalie Stovall & The Drive – “Baby Come On With It” (2.210) 43-47) Gloriana – “Best Night Ever” (2.160) 43-47) Love and Theft – “Night That You’ll Never Forget” (2.150) 43-47) Brothers Osborne – “Rum” (2.150) 48-49) Maggie Rose – “Looking Back Now” (1.950) 48-49) Lady Antebellum – “Bartender” (1.740) [NEW!] 50) Lucy Hale – “You Sound Good To Me” (1.380) 51-52) Kelleigh Bannen – “Famous” (1.190) 51-52) Kip Moore – “Dirt Road” (1.120) 53-54) Josh Thompson – “Wanted Me Gone” (0.980) 53-54) Danielle Bradbery – “Young In America” (0.890) 55) John King – “Tonight, Tonight” (0.740) 56-60) Austin Webb – “Raise ‘Em Up” (0.620) 56-60) Leah Turner – “Pull Me Back” (0.600) [RE-ENTRY] 56-60) Thompson Square – “Testing The Water” (0.600) 56-60) Chasin’ Crazy – “That’s How We Do Summertime” (0.600) [NEW!] 56-60) David Fanning – “Drink You Away” (0.600)
Dropping Off: Brantley Gilbert's "Bottoms Up" (#1 peak), Sara Evans' "Slow Me Down" (#17 peak), Chuck Wicks' "Us Again" (#37 peak), and Jason Aldean's "This Nothin' Town" (#55 peak)
Comments:
First thing I want to point out is that the numbers are projected totals...I averaged what each song has gained over the past 6 days (so, if a song had gained 600k in 6 days, that's +100k a day, and a projection of 700k for the week (another 100k added for day #7). That's why I've got Rascal Flatts at #1. If they have a good enough Sunday, they could conceivably top Billboard in addition to Mediabase, but I'm guessing that instead they'll see a negative update in the morning, which will greatly affect their 7-day projection. Over the last 6 days at MB, "Rewind" is up 3.9 mil in audience, for an average gain of +650k per day. Obviously that average was hurt by today's low gain of +30k, so you can see how a loss tomorrow, on the 7th day, would easily drop them several thousand impressions from what they currently project to.
Thus, I am actually expecting either Luke or FGL/Luke to top the Billboard chart, despite what it says above, and I'll go ahead and give the slight edge to "This Is How We Roll".
Anyway, look for Brett Eldredge to pick up his 2nd top 5, as Miranda Lambert slows down. Keith Urban continues to barely hang on but should achieve a new peak of #8, thanks to Eric and Brantley being in free-fall mode. Craig Campbell is hoping for a top 10 spot and he had a chance this week but Jake Owen has had the best week out of all the songs vying for that #10 spot, so look for "Beachin'" to claim it on tomorrow's chart, followed by Tyler Farr and then Craig. Also look for Blake Shelton to jump into the top 15 and for Joe Nichols to surge into the top 20.
George Strait has had another good week and is on the verge of chasing down Eric Paslay. George might only be another week or two from the top 20. Lee Brice has had a slow week and the Eli Young Band and Swon Brothers also continue to slowly climb. Chase Rice has had a pretty good week and should jump back into the top 30, joined by top 30 newcomer Dierks Bentley as well as Brantley Gilbert's latest, featuring Thomas Rhett and Justin Moore, which will be the Hot Shot Debut as it was aided by hourly Clear Channel airplay on Monday.
Zac Brown Band should slide up a couple more spots while The Cadillac Three still struggles to gain traction. Scotty McCreery has a good chance to crack the top 40 but Dan + Shay are going to make it close, and David Nail is also in the mix. Look for Lady Antebellum to score a nice debut, and for Kip Moore to jump up a couple spots. Leah Turner should get back on the chart and I think Chasin' Crazy will make their debut as well. John King has had a pretty nice week but Thompson Square has had quite a rough week and "Testing The Water" looks to be in some trouble.
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2014 23:36:26 GMT -5
Top 60 Projections for the 06/07 Billboard Country Airplay chart (chart won't come out until Tuesday evening, as tomorrow is Memorial Day) 1) Luke Bryan – “Play It Again” (47.540) 2) Florida Georgia Line f/ Luke Bryan – “This Is How We Roll” (45.410) 3-4) Brett Eldredge – “Beat Of The Music” (40.890) 3-4) Miranda Lambert – “Automatic” (40.760) 5) Justin Moore – “Lettin’ The Night Roll” (38.690) 6-7) Rascal Flatts – “Rewind” (35.010) [last week]6-7) Thomas Rhett – “Get Me Some Of That” (34.750) [last week]8) Jake Owen – “Beachin’” (29.460) 9) Tyler Farr – “Whiskey In My Water” (27.600) 10-12) Blake Shelton f/ Gwen Sebastian – “My Eyes” (26.120) 10-12) Craig Campbell – “Keep Them Kisses Comin’” (25.770) 10-12) Chris Young – “Who I Am With You” (25.730) 13) The Band Perry – “Chainsaw” (24.350) 14) Billy Currington – “We Are Tonight” (23.300) 15) Brad Paisley – “River Bank” (22.030) 16) Joe Nichols – “Yeah” (20.220) 17) Dustin Lynch – “Where It’s At” (15.760) 18-20) Eric Paslay – “Song About A Girl” (14.620) 18-20) Lee Brice – “I Don’t Dance” (14.620) 18-20) George Strait – “I Got A Car” (14.600) 21-22) Tim McGraw f/ Faith Hill – “Meanwhile Back At Mama’s” (12.140) 21-22) Eli Young Band – “Dust” (12.140) 23) Dierks Bentley – “Drunk On A Plane” (11.170) 24) The Swon Brothers – “Later On” (10.310) 25) Chase Rice – “Ready, Set, Roll” (9.500) 26-27) Hunter Hayes – “Invisible” (9.130) [last week]26-27) Brantley Gilbert f/ Thomas Rhett & Justin Moore – “Small Town Throwdown” (8.900) 28) Cole Swindell – “Hope You Get Lonely Tonight” (8.180) 29-30) Lady Antebellum – “Bartender” (7.700) 29-30) Big & Rich – “Look At You” (7.380) 31) Zac Brown Band – “All Alright” (6.910) 32) Frankie Ballard – “Sunshine & Whiskey” (6.410) 33) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (5.250) 34) The Cadillac Three & Friends – “The South” (4.130) [X]35) Easton Corbin – “Clockwork” (3.850) 36-37) Cassadee Pope – “I Wish I Could Break Your Heart” (3.580) 36-37) Kacey Musgraves – “Keep It To Yourself” (3.510) 38) Scotty McCreery – “Feelin’ It” (3.280) 39-40) Dan + Shay – “Show You Off” (2.950) 39-40) David Nail – “Kiss You Tonight” (2.820) 41-45) Love and Theft – “Night That You’ll Never Forget” (2.370) 41-45) Jon Pardi – “What I Can’t Put Down” (2.360) 41-45) Natalie Stovall & The Drive – “Baby Come On With It” (2.310) 41-45) Gloriana – “Best Night Ever” (2.280) 41-45) Brothers Osborne – “Rum” (2.240) 46-48) Jerrod Niemann – “Donkey” (1.980) 46-48) Maggie Rose – “Looking Back Now” (1.960) 46-48) Kip Moore – “Dirt Road” (1.870) 49-50) Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood – “Somethin’ Bad” (1.440) [NEW!]49-50) Kelleigh Bannen – “Famous” (1.410) 51-53) Josh Thompson – “Wanted Me Gone” (1.150) 51-53) Danielle Bradbery – “Young In America” (1.060) 51-53) John King – “Tonight, Tonight” (1.020) 54-57) Lucy Hale – “You Sound Good To Me” (0.950) [last week?]54-57) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (0.870) [NEW!]54-57) Leah Turner – “Pull Me Back” (0.870) 54-57) Chasin’ Crazy – “That’s How We Do Summertime” (0.810) 58-60) Eric Church – “Cold One” (0.730) [NEW!]58-60) Austin Webb – “Raise ‘Em Up” (0.730) 58-60) Jamie Lynn Spears – “How Could I Want More?” (0.650) ** ... David Fanning – “Drink You Away” (0.540) ** ... Ryan Kinder – “Kiss Me When I’m Down” (0.500) ... Sheryl Crow – “Shotgun” (0.400) ... Jason Aldean – “This Nothin’ Town” (0.380) ... Thompson Square – “Testing The Water” (0.360) [X] = Cadillac Three has a pretty good chance of going recurrent, but I left them up there in case Billboard gives them a grace week. They're close to breaking even in spins, despite a loss of nearly 600k in audience for the week. ** = Jamie Lynn Spears went recurrent 2 weeks ago but she's gained enough audience and spins back this week that Billboard might re-admit her to the chart, if they so choose. If not, David Fanning will likely re-enter. And if the Cadillac Three goes recurrent, then we could see both Jamie and David re-enter in the 59-60 spots, or possibly David re-entering and Ryan Kinder debuting (if Billboard determines that JLS needs to show gains for more than just one week in order to re-enter) Going Recurrent: Eric Church's "Give Me Back My Hometown" (#1 peak), Keith Urban's "Cop Car" (#8 peak), Craig Morgan's "Wake Up Lovin' You" (#14 peak), and Sara Evans' "Slow Me Down" (#17 peak) Comments:Luke Bryan will easily spend a 2nd week at #1 while his duet with FGL will spend a 3rd straight week at #2. Miranda's "Automatic" will cruise into the top 5 and will be close enough to challenge Brett Eldredge for the #3 spot. Justin Moore has had another huge week and will pick up his 3rd straight top 5 hit. Tyler Farr will easily enter the top 10, and he'll be joined by either Blake Shelton, Craig Campbell, or Chris Young, as the three battle it out for the #10 spot. Brad Paisley has had a solid week and will move up to #15, and Joe Nichols has had another really strong week so look for him to jump up a few more spots as well. Dustin Lynch, Eric Paslay, Lee Brice, and George Strait will all enter the top 20, with Tim McGraw and the Eli Young Band just outside the top 20. Dierks Bentley has had a huge week and it looks to me that he'll move 31-23. Chase Rice is set to gain several spots and Cole Swindell will easily jump back into the top 30. Hunter Hayes' "Invisible" is in free-fall mode but should get one more week on the chart. Lady A's "Bartender" is off to a hot start and should blast into the top 30 in just its 2nd chart week. Look for Big & Rich to enter the top 30 as well, just ahead of the Zac Brown Band (whose song "All Alright" continues to move somewhat slowly). Cassadee Pope has had another slow week but she should still move up a couple spots, although Kacey Musgraves is closing in (and hopefully both ladies can do well, since the only solo female ahead of them is Miranda, way up in the top 5!) Scotty McCreery, Dan + Shay, and David Nail should all be new entries into the top 40. Love & Theft has had a bit of a rebound week so they should move up a couple spots, and Natalie Stovall and label HitShop Records continue to close in on their first ever top 40 hit. Jerrod Niemann's "Donkey" is picking up the pace as it 'heads on down toward the honky tonky'. Jerrod debuted at #60 last week and should find himself in the 46-48 range this week. Kip Moore will crack the top 50 and the Miranda/Carrie duet should debut easily, well before its adds date (which hasn't been set yet...and the song isn't officially at radio either). New tunes from Randy Houser and Eric Church should also debut, with Jamie Lynn Spears and David Fanning possibly getting back on to the chart (see comments above). It appears to me that Thompson Square's "Testing The Water" is done, as its down more than 100k in the last 5 days. PS: Thanks to @jf816 for posting the latest Mediabase update so I could do projections for songs outside the 40's! :)
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on May 26, 2014 16:10:56 GMT -5
Country Airplay *** No. 1 (2 weeks)*** "Play It Again" Luke Bryan Greatest Gainer No. 10 "Who I Am With You" Chris Young Debut No. 48 "Something Bad" Miranda Lambert Duet With Carrie Underwood Debut No. 56 "Cold One" Eric Church Debut No. 57 "Like A Cowboy" Randy Houser
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2014 17:49:24 GMT -5
Four songs (all top 20) dropped off on Billboard this week and I think even more will drop off on Monday for a nice house-cleaning. Thomas Rhett isn't falling very fast but I think he'll lose just enough spins to rank #11 there and be pulled (even though he'll still be top 10 in audience for another week, Billboard will send a 'dropper' recurrent if it falls below #10 in spins).
"Rewind" and "Invisible" are obviously going recurrent, and "The South" will as well. I also think Lucy Hale's song will be done. This will allow for Sheryl Crow, Hunter's "Tattoo", and possibly Ryan Kinder to debut on the chart, and a couple others as well (David Fanning re-entering seems likely, and Jana Kramer and Sam Hunt might have a pretty good chance to debut too if they get enough audience this week).
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2014 23:10:11 GMT -5
Here are my projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart (dated 6/14):
1) Luke Bryan – “Play It Again” (49.000) 2) Brett Eldredge – “Beat Of The Music” (44.610) 3) Miranda Lambert – “Automatic” (42.790) 4) Justin Moore – “Lettin’ The Night Roll” (41.330) 5) Florida Georgia Line f/ Luke Bryan – “This Is How We Roll” (40.740) 6) Jake Owen – “Beachin’” (34.410) 7) Tyler Farr – “Whiskey In My Water” (31.470) 8) Blake Shelton f/ Gwen Sebastian – “My Eyes” (31.010) 9) Chris Young – “Who I Am With You” (29.710) 10) Craig Campbell – “Keep Them Kisses Comin’” (29.140) 11-12) The Band Perry – “Chainsaw” (26.320) 11-12) Billy Currington – “We Are Tonight” (26.100) 13-14) Joe Nichols – “Yeah” (24.710) 13-14) Brad Paisley – “River Bank” (24.630) 15) Lee Brice – “I Don’t Dance” (18.860) 16) Eric Paslay – “Song About A Girl” (16.980) 17-18) Dustin Lynch – “Where It’s At” (16.540) 17-18) George Strait – “I Got A Car” (16.260) 19) Tim McGraw f/ Faith Hill – “Meanwhile Back At Mama’s” (15.260) 20) Dierks Bentley – “Drunk On A Plane” (14.270) 21-23) Brantley Gilbert f/ Thomas Rhett & Justin Moore – “Small Town Throwdown” (12.670) 21-23) Eli Young Band – “Dust” (12.450) 21-23) Lady Antebellum – “Bartender” (12.240) 24-25) The Swon Brothers – “Later On” (11.880) 24-25) Chase Rice – “Ready, Set, Roll” (11.670) 26) Cole Swindell – “Hope You Get Lonely Tonight” (9.660) 27) Zac Brown Band – “All Alright” (9.320) 28) Big & Rich – “Look At You” (8.070) 29) Frankie Ballard – “Sunshine & Whiskey” (6.830) 30) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (6.390) 31-35) Kacey Musgraves – “Keep It To Yourself” (4.150) 31-35) Dan + Shay – “Show You Off” (4.050) 31-35) Easton Corbin – “Clockwork” (4.040) 31-35) Cassadee Pope – “I Wish I Could Break Your Heart” (3.930) 31-35) Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood – “Somethin’ Bad” (3.900) 36-37) Eric Church – “Cold One” (3.550) 36-37) Scotty McCreery – “Feelin’ It” (3.430) 38) Jon Pardi – “What I Can’t Put Down” (3.240) 39-41) David Nail – “Kiss You Tonight” (3.080) 39-41) Gloriana – “Best Night Ever” (2.960) 39-41) Brothers Osborne – “Rum” (2.920) 42-44) Love and Theft – “Night That You’ll Never Forget” (2.500) 42-44) Jerrod Niemann – “Donkey” (2.430) 42-44) Natalie Stovall & The Drive – “Baby Come On With It” (2.410) 45) Kip Moore – “Dirt Road” (2.030) 46) Maggie Rose – “Looking Back Now” (1.810) 47) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (1.500) 48-49) Danielle Bradbery – “Young In America” (1.380) 48-49) Josh Thompson – “Wanted Me Gone” (1.370) 50-52) Kelleigh Bannen – “Famous” (1.280) 50-52) Leah Turner – “Pull Me Back” (1.200) 50-52) John King – “Tonight, Tonight” (1.190) 53-54) Sheryl Crow – “Shotgun” (1.100) [NEW!] 53-54) Hunter Hayes – “Tattoo” (1.100) [NEW!] 55) Chasin’ Crazy – “That’s How We Do Summertime” (0.990) 56) Austin Webb – “Raise ‘Em Up” (0.840) 57) Jason Aldean – “This Nothin’ Town” (0.750) 58) David Fanning – “Drink You Away” (0.660) [RE-ENTRY] 59-60) Ryan Kinder – “Kiss Me When I’m Down” (0.520) [NEW!] 59-60) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (0.500) [NEW!]
...Randy Owen – “In Honor Of (Those Serving Us)” (0.400) ...Jana Kramer – “Love” (0.370) ...Billy Ray Cyrus – “I’m American” (0.290) ...Brantley Gilbert – “Dirt Road Anthem” (0.290) ...Ben Rue – “I Can’t Wait (Be My Wife)” (0.220) ...Kellie Pickler – “Closer To Nowhere” (0.180) ...Sam Hunt – “Leave The Night On” (0.150)
Dropping Off: Thomas Rhett's "Get Me Some Of That" (#1 peak), Rascal Flatts' "Rewind" (#3 peak), Hunter Hayes' "Invisible" (#19 peak), The Cadillac Three's "The South" (#33 peak), and Lucy Hale's "You Sound Good To Me" (#47 peak)
Comments:
Luke Bryan has the #1 spot on lock-down...this makes 3 weeks at the top for "Play It Again". Brett, Miranda, and Justin will move into the 2-4 spots with the red hot Jake Owen tune "Beachin'" only 1 more week from the top 5. Blake Shelton has had a huge week as well and will cruise into the top 10. And finally it looks like Craig Campbell will pick up his first Billboard top 10, provided that Thomas Rhett loses enough spins to go recurrent. Rhett will easily remain top 10 in audience (he'll likely be #7 audience-wise) but if he falls to #11 in spins, he'll be sent packing. Right now it looks as if Blake and Craig will safely rank ahead of Thomas in spins, but it'll be much loser vs. Chris Young. I think Rhett is likely to leave (75% chance) though, so that should be good news for Craig.
Joe Nichols has had another strong week and may be able to chase down Brad Paisley. Lee Brice's "I Don't Dance" has caught fire and will blast into the top 15. Tim McGraw and Dierks Bentley continue to speed up the chart; both should enter the top 20. Brantley Gilbert and Lady A continue their hot starts and appear to be next in line to jump into the top 20, as EYB's "Dust" continues to spin its wheels a bit. Chase Rice and Cole Swindell continue to make steady progress, and the ZBB is poised to crack the top 30 in chart week 6. Top 30 newcomers should be Frankie Ballard and Parmalee.
The 30's on the chart are pretty soft at the moment, allowing for perhaps only 4.2 million or so to be necessary to claim the #31 spot. Although that's a very low audience total for #31, that's not to take away from Kacey Musgraves' progress, as she's had another pretty good week and could slip ahead of Easton Corbin. Miranda & Carrie should surge into this section of the chart as well, joined by newbies Dan + Shay and Cassadee Pope. Dan + Shay has had another strong week while Cassadee has also picked up the pace a bit.
Eric Church's "Cold One" is another song on the move...he's looking at perhaps a 20-spot jump well into the top 40. Jon Pardi has had a strong week and will jump into the top 40, likely joined by either Gloriana or Brothers Osborne. Randy Houser will move into the top 50 easily, and he should be joined by Josh Thompson and Danielle Bradbery. Maggie Rose and Kelleigh Bannen, meanwhile, have had rough weeks and will drop a bit in audience even if they don't fall position-wise.
Sheryl Crow and Hunter Hayes, despite having only 50-some total spins each, will both easily crack the top 60. The final spots were tougher to fill out this week. Several songs decided to go recurrent but no one really wanted to debut. David Fanning will probably re-enter and claim one of the open spots, while the other two seem likely to go to a Brantley Gilbert album track and label-less Ryan Kinder.
There's a slight chance that Billboard could re-enter songs like "Summer Jam", "How Could I Want More", and "Makin' This Boy Go Crazy"--especially considering the lack of movement near the bottom of the chart--but I don't think they will. "Summer Jam" charted 2 summers ago but it doesn't seem likely that Billboard will admit it as a re-entry. If they did, though, the Jake/FGL song would probably come in somewhere in the 47-50 range, since it has nearly 1.8 million on Mediabase. Jamie Lynn Spears' song is down about 200k for the week, and even though it will probably have more audience than the Kinder and Gilbert songs, the Spears tune has already been sent recurrent so I can't see Billboard re-entering it on a week when it lost audience. And lastly, pesky Dylan Scott is up a bit in audience this week at Mediabase, and probably would have more than the Kinder and Gilbert songs as well, but he too went recurrent a few weeks back so I don't think Billboard will re-enter his song either.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2014 0:08:57 GMT -5
Here are my projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart:
1) Luke Bryan – “Play It Again” (47.320) 2) Brett Eldredge – “Beat Of The Music” (45.870) 3) Miranda Lambert – “Automatic” (45.430) 4) Justin Moore – “Lettin’ The Night Roll” (43.220) 5) Jake Owen – “Beachin’” (38.800) 6) Blake Shelton f/ Gwen Sebastian – “My Eyes” (35.380) 7) Tyler Farr – “Whiskey In My Water” (34.930) 8) Florida Georgia Line f/ Luke Bryan – “This Is How We Roll” (33.280) [last week] 9) Chris Young – “Who I Am With You” (32.060) 10) Craig Campbell – “Keep Them Kisses Comin’” (31.410) 11-12) Billy Currington – “We Are Tonight” (28.320) 11-12) Joe Nichols – “Yeah” (28.280) 13) Brad Paisley – “River Bank” (26.530) 14) The Band Perry – “Chainsaw” (25.920) 15) Lee Brice – “I Don’t Dance” (21.640) 16-18) Tim McGraw f/ Faith Hill – “Meanwhile Back At Mama’s” (18.440) 16-18) Eric Paslay – “Song About A Girl” (18.300) 16-18) George Strait – “I Got A Car” (18.000) 19) Dustin Lynch – “Where It’s At” (17.120) 20) Dierks Bentley – “Drunk On A Plane” (16.490) 21) Lady Antebellum – “Bartender” (15.540) 22) Brantley Gilbert f/ Thomas Rhett & Justin Moore – “Small Town Throwdown” (14.920) 23) Eli Young Band – “Dust” (14.550) 24-25) The Swon Brothers – “Later On” (13.560) 24-25) Chase Rice – “Ready, Set, Roll” (13.300) 26) Cole Swindell – “Hope You Get Lonely Tonight” (11.210) 27) Zac Brown Band – “All Alright” (10.580) 28-29) Big & Rich – “Look At You” (8.360) 28-29) Eric Church – “Cold One” (8.300) 30-31) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (7.760) 30-31) Frankie Ballard – “Sunshine & Whiskey” (7.680) 32-33) Little Big Town – “Day Drinking” (7.150) [NEW!] 32-33) Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood – “Somethin’ Bad” (7.000) 34) Kacey Musgraves – “Keep It To Yourself” (4.420) 35-37) Dan + Shay – “Show You Off” (4.060) 35-37) Easton Corbin – “Clockwork” (4.010) 35-37) Cassadee Pope – “I Wish I Could Break Your Heart” (3.960) 38-39) Scotty McCreery – “Feelin’ It” (3.730) 38-39) David Nail – “Kiss You Tonight” (3.690) 40) Jon Pardi – “What I Can’t Put Down” (3.460) 41) Gloriana – “Best Night Ever” (3.330) 42-45) Brothers Osborne – “Rum” (2.860) 42-45) Love and Theft – “Night That You’ll Never Forget” (2.750) 42-45) Natalie Stovall & The Drive – “Baby Come On With It” (2.720) 42-45) Jerrod Niemann – “Donkey” (2.610) 46-47) Kip Moore – “Dirt Road” (1.730) 46-47) Josh Thompson – “Wanted Me Gone” (1.690) 48) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (1.540) 49-50) Hunter Hayes – “Tattoo” (1.350) 49-50) Danielle Bradbery – “Young In America” (1.340) 51-56) John King – “Tonight, Tonight” (1.260) 51-56) Rascal Flatts – “Payback” (1.240) [NEW!] 51-56) Jana Kramer – “Love” (1.200) [NEW!] 51-56) Maggie Rose – “Looking Back Now” (1.190) [last week] 51-56) Leah Turner – “Pull Me Back” (1.170) 51-56) Sheryl Crow – “Shotgun” (1.110) 57) Austin Webb – “Raise ‘Em Up” (1.030) 58) Jason Aldean – “This Nothin’ Town” (0.960) 59-60) Kelleigh Bannen – “Famous” (0.810) [last week] 59-60) Chasin’ Crazy – “That’s How We Do Summertime” (0.800)
...Ben Rue – “I Can’t Wait (Be My Wife)” (0.620) ...David Fanning – “Drink You Away” (0.490) ...Jamie Lynn Spears – “How Could I Want More?” (0.410) ...Ryan Kinder – “Kiss Me When I’m Down” (0.370) ...Sam Hunt – “Leave The Night On” (0.320)
Dropping Off: Jamie Lynn Spears' "How Could I Want More", David Fanning's "Drink You Away", and Ryan Kinder's "Kiss Me When I'm Down"
Comments:
Miranda Lambert will snag the Mediabase #1, but it looks like she might be yet another MB #1/BB #3 peak. Luke Bryan should remain at the top spot for a 4th and final week with "Play It Again". Jake Owen will enter the top 5 with Billy Currington and Joe Nichols closing in on the top 10. The Band Perry continues to struggle; "Chainsaw" should get passed by both Joe and Brad this week. Tim McGraw should move up a couple more spots with Dustin Lynch sliding back a couple. Lady A's "Bartender" continues its hot start and looks likely to jump ahead of "Small Town Throwdown".
Eli Young Band had a pretty good gain for the week but "Dust" continues to be stuck in an incredibly competitive part of the chart, surrounded by very big names. The Swon Brothers, Chase Rice, and Cole Swindell are in the same situation--all have had pretty good weeks but a ton of big names have come racing through the 20's, making it difficult to move up, and a couple of other big names are on the horizon as well, including Eric Church, Little Big Town, and the Miranda/Carrie duet. Eric's "Cold One" is anything but cold...it's off to a red hot start and should blast easily into the top 30. Little Big Town's latest, "Day Drinking", should debut very close to where their last single "Sober" peaked (#31).
After each picking up several spots last week, Kacey Musgraves, Dan + Shay, Easton Corbin, and Cassadee Pope have all had slow weeks, likely thanks to a bunch of new releases. In fact, almost every song outside the top 35 has posted little to no gain for the week. Hunter Hayes should enter the top 50 and both Rascal Flatts and Jana Kramer should post pretty strong debuts. Finally, this should be the last week on the chart for both Maggie Rose and Kelleigh Bannen, with both songs becoming the latest in a long line of disappointing chart runs for the ladies. On the upside, Jana Kramer is showing promise, and both Danielle Bradbery and Leah Turner are hanging in there as well, while Natalie Stovall & The Drive are on the cusp of the top 40.
All in all, not much chart movement this week, with no songs set to go recurrent. We had a house-cleaning over the last 2 weeks but tomorrow's chart looks to be locked up. A lot of the songs in the top 30 posted strong gains, while most outside the top 30 didn't gain much at all, resulting in a widening gap between #33 and #34. Let's hope that songs from Kacey, Easton, David, and others can start seeing higher conversions soon!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2014 22:40:44 GMT -5
Here are my predictions for tomorrow's Billboard chart! :)
1) Justin Moore – “Lettin’ The Night Roll” (47.040) 2) Blake Shelton f/ Gwen Sebastian – “My Eyes” (45.040) 3) Jake Owen – “Beachin’” (42.760) 4) Luke Bryan – “Play It Again” (40.950) 5-7) Brett Eldredge – “Beat Of The Music” (38.650) 5-7) Tyler Farr – “Whiskey In My Water” (38.610) 5-7) Chris Young – “Who I Am With You” (38.610) 8) Joe Nichols – “Yeah” (34.430) 9) Craig Campbell – “Keep Them Kisses Comin’” (32.300) 10) Billy Currington – “We Are Tonight” (30.940) 11) The Band Perry – “Chainsaw” (29.320) 12) Brad Paisley – “River Bank” (27.600) 13) Lee Brice – “I Don’t Dance” (25.610) 14) Eric Paslay – “Song About A Girl” (23.910) 15) Miranda Lambert – “Automatic” (23.610) [last week] 16) Tim McGraw f/ Faith Hill – “Meanwhile Back At Mama’s” (22.390) 17) Dierks Bentley – “Drunk On A Plane” (21.470) 18) Dustin Lynch – “Where It’s At” (20.580) 19-20) Lady Antebellum – “Bartender” (19.300) 19-20) George Strait – “I Got A Car” (19.000) 21) Brantley Gilbert f/ Thomas Rhett & Justin Moore – “Small Town Throwdown” (17.900) 22) Eli Young Band – “Dust” (16.670) 23) The Swon Brothers – “Later On” (15.440) 24-25) Chase Rice – “Ready, Set, Roll” (14.170) 24-25) Cole Swindell – “Hope You Get Lonely Tonight” (14.040) 26) Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood – “Somethin’ Bad” (13.600) 27) Kenny Chesney – “American Kids” (13.200) [NEW!] 28) Zac Brown Band – “All Alright” (12.000) 29) Eric Church – “Cold One” (11.540) 30-32) Frankie Ballard – “Sunshine & Whiskey” (8.900) 30-32) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (8.770) 30-32) Big & Rich – “Look At You” (8.730) 33) Sam Hunt – “Leave The Night On” (7.330) 34) Little Big Town – “Day Drinking” (6.670) 35-36) Rascal Flatts – “Payback” (4.570) 35-36) Easton Corbin – “Clockwork” (4.540) 37-38) Cassadee Pope – “I Wish I Could Break Your Heart” (4.210) 37-38) Dan + Shay – “Show You Off” (4.110) 39) Scotty McCreery – “Feelin’ It” (3.970) 40-41) Gloriana – “Best Night Ever” (3.870) 40-41) Kacey Musgraves – “Keep It To Yourself” (3.820) 42) Brothers Osborne – “Rum” (3.690) 43-44) David Nail – “Kiss You Tonight” (3.560) 43-44) Jon Pardi – “What I Can’t Put Down” (3.540) 45) Love & Theft – “Night That You’ll Never Forget” (3.220) 46-47) Natalie Stovall & The Drive – “Baby Come On With It” (2.450) 46-47) Jerrod Niemann – “Donkey” (2.350) 48-50) Jana Kramer – “Love” (2.190) 48-50) Hunter Hayes – “Tattoo” (2.140) 48-50) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (2.140) 51-53) Josh Thompson – “Wanted Me Gone” (1.690) 51-53) Keith Urban – “Somewhere In My Car” (1.600) 51-53) Kip Moore – “Dirt Road” (1.580) 54-55) John King – “Tonight, Tonight” (1.480) 54-55) Danielle Bradbery – “Young In America” (1.460) 56-59) Sheryl Crow – “Shotgun” (1.170) 56-59) Chasin’ Crazy – “That’s How We Do Summertime” (1.160) 56-59) Austin Webb – “Raise ‘Em Up” (1.110) 56-59) Leah Turner – “Pull Me Back” (1.060) 60) Jason Aldean – “This Nothin’ Town” (0.700)
...Luke Bryan – “Roller Coaster” (0.610) ...Ben Rue – “I Can’t Wait (Be My Wife)” (0.610) ...David Fanning – “Drink You Away” (0.510) ...Jamie Lynn Spears – “How Could I Want More?” (0.450) ...Ryan Kinder – “Kiss Me When I’m Down” (0.420) ...Thompson Square – “I Can’t Outrun You” (0.280) ...Charlie Worsham – “Rubberband” (0.200)
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jun 23, 2014 16:03:32 GMT -5
Stop the presses! Jhomes87 nailed the #27 debut for American Kids. Again, kudos!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2014 1:19:12 GMT -5
It's late, but the Billboard chart won't come out until Tuesday evening anyway, so here are some projections for how I think it will shape up! :)
1) Lady Antebellum – “Bartender” (49.230) 2-3) Kenny Chesney – “American Kids” (45.780) 2-3) Dustin Lynch – “Where It’s At” (45.660) 4) Cole Swindell – “Hope You Get Lonely Tonight” (41.510) 5) Luke Bryan – “Roller Coaster” (40.000) 6) Tim McGraw f/ Faith Hill – “Meanwhile Back At Mama’s” (39.500) 7-8) Dierks Bentley – “Drunk On A Plane” (38.890) 7-8) Florida Georgia Line – “Dirt” (38.720) 9) Jason Aldean – “Burnin’ It Down” (28.100) 10) Chase Rice – “Ready, Set, Roll” (26.980) 11) Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood – “Somethin’ Bad” (26.270) 12) Brantley Gilbert f/ Thomas Rhett & Justin Moore – “Small Town Throwdown” (25.220) 13) The Swon Brothers – “Later On” (22.350) 14) Frankie Ballard – “Sunshine & Whiskey” (21.750) 15-16) Eli Young Band – “Dust” (21.470) 15-16) Sam Hunt – “Leave The Night On” (21.160) 17-18) Little Big Town – “Day Drinking” (20.210) 17-18) Blake Shelton – “Neon Light” (20.000) 19) Zac Brown Band – “All Alright” (19.500) 20-21) Eric Church – “Cold One” (18.720) 20-21) Keith Urban – “Somewhere In My Car” (18.610) 22) Big & Rich – “Look At You” (17.200) 23) Maddie & Tae – “Girl In A Country Song” (14.410) 24) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (13.200) 25) Rascal Flatts – “Payback” (11.450) 26) Scotty McCreery – “Feelin’ It” (10.910) 27) Chase Bryant – “Take It On Back” (10.080) 28) David Nail – “Kiss You Tonight” (7.700) 29-30) Hunter Hayes – “Tattoo” (7.180) 29-30) Dan + Shay – “Show You Off” (7.150) 31-32) Brothers Osborne – “Rum” (6.580) 31-32) Justin Moore f/ Vince Neil – “Home Sweet Home” (6.300) 33-34) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (5.500) 33-34) Jake Owen – “What We Ain’t Got” (5.350) 35-36) Love and Theft – “Night That You’ll Never Forget” (5.110) 35-36) RaeLynn – “God Made Girls” (4.900) 37-38) Jana Kramer – “Love” (4.370) 37-38) Brett Eldredge – “Mean To Me” (4.320) 39) Thomas Rhett – “Make Me Wanna” (3.950) 40) John King – “Tonight, Tonight” (3.350) 41) Chris Young – “Lonely Eyes” (3.000) 42) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (2.690) 43) Jerrod Niemann – “Buzz Back Girl” (2.480) 44-45) Josh Thompson – “Wanted Me Gone” (2.250) 44-45) Kristian Bush – “Trailer Hitch” (2.250) 46) Darius Rucker – “Homegrown Honey” 47-48) Montgomery Gentry – “Headlights” 47-48) The Cadillac Three – “Party Like You” 49) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” 50-52) Dean Alexander – “Live A Little” 50-52) Lindsay Ell – “Shut Me Up” 50-52) Brad Paisley – “Perfect Storm” [NEW!] 53-56) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” [NEW!] 53-56) Joe Nichols – “Hard To Be Cool” [NEW!] 53-56) Craig Morgan – “We’ll Come Back Around” 53-56) Joey Hyde – “Get It On” 57) Lucy Hale – “Lie A Little Better” 58) Ben Rue – “I Can’t Wait (Be My Wife)” 59) Tim McGraw – “Shotgun Rider” [NEW!] 60) Kelleigh Bannen – “You Are What You Love” [NEW!]
Dropping Off: Lee Brice's "I Don't Dance", Brad Paisley's "River Bank", Kacey Musgraves' "Keep It To Yourself", Thompson Square's "I Can't Outrun You", and Taylor Swift's "Shake It Off"
Comments:
Lady A will be #1 with one of the highest audience totals in Billboard history. Following after them will be Kenny and Dustin, with Cole Swindell jumping up to #4 and Luke Bryan already set to crack the top 5. Jason Aldean and Chase Rice will both enter the top 10. This will be Chase's first top 10, and Aldean's 19th. Sitting just outside the top 10 will be collaborations from Miranda and Carrie and also from Brantley, Thomas, and Justin.
The Swon Brothers and the Eli Young Band continue to move very slowly, and it finally looks like those songs may be caught by Frankie Ballard and Sam Hunt. Zac Brown Band and Eric Church also continue to move very slowly, while Little Big Town and Keith Urban have had very nice weeks and should jump up a few spots; Keith may challenge Eric for the #20 spot.
Maddie & Tae continue to motor right along while most others in the 20's continue to move up slowly, including Big & Rich, Parmalee, Rascal Flatts, and David Nail. Chase Bryant continues to benefit from On The Verge. Scotty McCreery looks poised to move up a couple more spots and Hunter Hayes and Dan + Shay should enter the top 30. Brothers Osborne's "Rum" continues to inch its way up the chart and Randy Houser continues to make steady progress. RaeLynn and Jana Kramer have both had rough weeks, whereas Love and Theft has rebounded, and Jake Owen has had another good week which should result in "What We Ain't Got" jumping up another handful of spots. Brett Eldredge has also had a very strong week which should return him to the top 40, and John King is poised to pick up his very first top 40 hit. Also new to the top 40 should be Thomas Rhett's latest "Make Me Wanna".
Chris Young is set for another nice move with "Lonely Eyes", but it's a slower go for Jerrod Niemann and Josh Thompson. New tunes from Brad Paisley, Lee Brice, and Joe Nichols should all see solid debuts. The last couple of spots are anybody's guess (no recent MB numbers to go off of), but based off some rough numbers from AllAccess, I think Tim's new one "Shotgun Rider" might sneak in, and Kelleigh Bannen also has a chance to get back on the chart. Other possibilities include American Young and Trisha Yearwood, though I think Trisha will have to wait until next week.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Sept 1, 2014 8:14:02 GMT -5
Yay for jhomes87 :) love when you post these!
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2014 0:18:27 GMT -5
Here are my projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart! :)
1-2) Kenny Chesney – “American Kids” (47.800) 1-2) Lady Antebellum – “Bartender” (47.760) 3) Dustin Lynch – “Where It’s At” (46.340) 4-5) Cole Swindell – “Hope You Get Lonely Tonight” (44.640) 4-5) Luke Bryan – “Roller Coaster” (44.350) 6) Florida Georgia Line – “Dirt” (41.480) 7-8) Tim McGraw f/ Faith Hill – “Meanwhile Back At Mama’s” (32.880) [last week] 7-8) Dierks Bentley – “Drunk On A Plane” (32.640) [last week] 9) Jason Aldean – “Burnin’ It Down” (32.160) 10) Chase Rice – “Ready, Set, Roll” (29.300) 11) Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood – “Somethin’ Bad” (27.730) 12) Brantley Gilbert f/ Thomas Rhett & Justin Moore – “Small Town Throwdown” (26.840) 13) Sam Hunt – “Leave The Night On” (24.960) 14-15) Frankie Ballard – “Sunshine & Whiskey” (23.000) 14-15) Blake Shelton – “Neon Light” (22.890) 16-18) The Swon Brothers – “Later On” (22.570) 16-18) Little Big Town – “Day Drinking” (22.420) 16-18) Eli Young Band – “Dust” (22.360) 19) Garth Brooks – “People Loving People” (21.300) [NEW!] 20) Keith Urban – “Somewhere In My Car” (19.270) 21-23) Zac Brown Band – “All Alright” (18.760) [last week] 21-23) Big & Rich – “Look At You” (18.490) 21-23) Eric Church – “Cold One” (18.300) 24) Maddie & Tae – “Girl In A Country Song” (16.320) 25) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (14.310) 26) Scotty McCreery – “Feelin’ It” (11.830) 27) Rascal Flatts – “Payback” (11.030) 28) Chase Bryant – “Take It On Back” (10.350) 29-30) David Nail – “Kiss You Tonight” (8.280) 29-30) Dan + Shay – “Show You Off” (8.030) 31-33) Brothers Osborne – “Rum” (7.390) 31-33) Hunter Hayes – “Tattoo” (7.310) 31-33) Justin Moore f/ Vince Neil – “Home Sweet Home” (6.970) 34-35) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (5.860) 34-35) Brett Eldredge – “Mean To Me” (5.740) 36-37) Jake Owen – “What We Ain’t Got” (5.540) 36-37) Love and Theft – “Night That You’ll Never Forget” (5.410) 38-39) Darius Rucker – “Homegrown Honey” (4.850) 38-39) RaeLynn – “God Made Girls” (4.660) 40-41) Thomas Rhett – “Make Me Wanna” (4.440) 40-41) Jana Kramer – “Love” (4.250) 42-44) Brad Paisley – “Perfect Storm” (3.800) 42-44) Chris Young – “Lonely Eyes” (3.760) 42-44) John King – “Tonight, Tonight” (3.710) 45-48) Kristian Bush – “Trailer Hitch” (2.800) 45-48) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (2.640) 45-48) Jerrod Niemann – “Buzz Back Girl” (2.510) 45-48) Josh Thompson – “Wanted Me Gone” (2.400) 49) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (1.920) 50-51) Tim McGraw – “Shotgun Rider” (1.500) [NEW!] 50-51) The Cadillac Three – “Party Like You” 52-55) Joe Nichols – “Hard To Be Cool” 52-55) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” 52-55) Dean Alexander – “Live A Little” 52-55) Montgomery Gentry – “Headlights” 56-57) Lindsay Ell – “Shut Me Up” 56-57) Lucy Hale – “Lie A Little Better” 58-59) Craig Morgan – “We’ll Come Back Around” 58-59) Ben Rue – “I Can’t Wait (Be My Wife)” 60) American Young – “Wasn’t Gonna Drink Tonight”
Dropping Off: Joey Hyde's "Get It On" and Ed Sheeran's "Don't"
Comments:
Garth Brooks is the big story of the week, and he looks set for a #19 debut based off my projections. I've also got Tim McGraw's new one coming in for a strong debut, and we could see Kelleigh Bannen and Easton Corbin challenge American Young for the final spot on the chart.
The #1 race looks too close to call, but I'll give Kenny a 55% chance of coming out at #1, and Lady A a 45% chance of hanging on for a 2nd week at #1. It really comes down to today's airplay and the Monday morning Mediabase update. Dustin Lynch should stay strong at #3, followed by Cole, Luke, and FGL. That'll be 6 songs all way over 40 million in audience.
Chase Rice will pick up his first ever top 10 hit, as he should bump Miranda & Carrie back a notch. Brantley Gilbert continues to sit just outside the top 10, with Sam Hunt, Frankie Ballard, and of course Blake Shelton closing in. The Swon Brothers, Zac Brown Band, and Eric Church are all likely to get bumped back a few spots, and virtually no one on the entire chart will jump up many spaces due to a) no recurrents and b) Garth's debut. So we'll actually probably see several songs sliding back a notch or two on tomorrow's chart. We're getting to a breaking point, which means a long overdue Billboard housecleaning simply has to be on the way soon.
Maddie & Tae have had another good week, but Rascal Flatts has lost some ground and "Payback" will probably fall below Scotty's "Feelin' It". David Nail, Dan + Shay, Brothers Osborne, Hunter Hayes, and Randy Houser continue to gain audience slowly but surely. Love and Theft's song is just hanging by a thread but refusing to leave the charts (along with everybody else), so we've got a chart-wide slowdown. Brett Eldredge is one of the few outside the top 20 who's had a good week; his "Mean To Me" continues its nice start and should move up about 1 million in audience. Darius Rucker should crack the top 40 with Brad Paisley moving up a bunch as well, but RaeLynn and Jana Kramer continue to really struggle.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2014 2:27:09 GMT -5
Here are my predictions for tomorrow's Billboard chart! :)
01) Dustin Lynch – “Where It’s At” (50.160) 02-03) Luke Bryan – “Roller Coaster” (48.020) 02-03) Cole Swindell – “Hope You Get Lonely Tonight” (47.880) 04) Florida Georgia Line – “Dirt” (44.760) 05) Kenny Chesney – “American Kids” (42.610) 06) Jason Aldean – “Burnin’ It Down” (39.210) 07) Chase Rice – “Ready, Set, Roll” (33.030) 08) Lady Antebellum – “Bartender” (32.380) [last week] 09-10) Sam Hunt – “Leave The Night On” (29.170) 09-10) Brantley Gilbert f/ Thomas Rhett & Justin Moore – “Small Town Throwdown” (29.030) 11-12) Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood – “Somethin’ Bad” (28.400) 11-12) Blake Shelton – “Neon Light” (28.280) 13) Frankie Ballard – “Sunshine & Whiskey” (27.110) 14) Little Big Town – “Day Drinking” (25.360) 15) The Swon Brothers – “Later On” (24.190) 16) Keith Urban – “Somewhere In My Car” (23.210) 17) Maddie & Tae – “Girl In A Country Song” (21.030) 18) Big & Rich – “Look At You” (19.880) 19) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (16.590) 20) Scotty McCreery – “Feelin’ It” (14.730) 21) Garth Brooks – “People Loving People” (13.430) 22) Rascal Flatts – “Payback” (12.410) 23) Chase Bryant – “Take It On Back” (11.680) 24) Brad Paisley – “Perfect Storm” (10.290) 25) David Nail – “Kiss You Tonight” (9.690) 26-27) Eric Church – “Cold One” (9.500) [last week] 26-27) Hunter Hayes – “Tattoo” (9.150) 28-29) Darius Rucker – “Homegrown Honey” (8.510) 28-29) Dan + Shay – “Show You Off” (8.350) 30) Brothers Osborne – “Rum” (7.660) 31) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (6.980) 32-35) Brett Eldredge – “Mean To Me” (6.730) 32-35) Tim McGraw – “Shotgun Rider” (6.620) 32-35) Justin Moore f/ Vince Neil – “Home Sweet Home” (6.540) 32-35) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (6.300) 36) Jake Owen – “What We Ain’t Got” (6.030) 37) Thomas Rhett – “Make Me Wanna” (5.780) 38-39) RaeLynn – “God Made Girls” (5.450) 38-39) Chris Young – “Lonely Eyes” (5.370) 40) Jana Kramer – “Love” (4.560) 41-42) John King – “Tonight, Tonight” (3.480) [last week?] 41-42) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (3.260) 43) Kristian Bush – “Trailer Hitch” (3.070) 44-46) Eric Church – “Talladega” (2.600) [NEW!] 44-46) Jerrod Niemann – “Buzz Back Girl” (2.560) 44-46) Joe Nichols – “Hard To Be Cool” (2.380) 47) The Cadillac Three – “Party Like You” (2.170) 48-49) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (1.650) 48-49) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (1.650) 50) Dean Alexander – “Live A Little” (1.400) 51) Montgomery Gentry – “Headlights” 52) Lindsay Ell – “Shut Me Up” 53-55) Lucy Hale – “Lie A Little Better” 53-55) Josh Turner – “Lay Low” 53-55) Jackie Lee – “She Does” [NEW!] 56) Craig Morgan – “We’ll Come Back Around” 57) Ben Rue – “I Can’t Wait (Be My Wife)” 58) Kelleigh Bannen – “You Are What You Love” 59) Trisha Yearwood f/ Kelly Clarkson – “Prize Fighter” [NEW!] 60) Cole Swindell – “Brought To You By Beer” [NEW!] ...OR American Young's "Wasn't Gonna Drink Tonight", Chris Lane's "Broken Windshield View", or Jon Pardi's "When I've Been Drinkin'"
Going Recurrent: Eli Young Band's "Dust" (#15 peak), Love and Theft's "Night That You'll Never Forget" (#34 peak), and Josh Thompson's "Wanted Me Gone" (#44 peak)
Comments:
Dustin Lynch will easily hold on to the #1 spot for a 2nd week, and he has a pretty good chance of having just the 2nd song to cross the 50 million mark on Billboard. Dustin also has a chance to break Thomas Rhett's audience record, set back on the November 9, 2013 chart when "It Goes Like This" reached 50.272 million impressions. I've got him falling just short, but it's going to be very close.
Meanwhile, Cole Swindell and Luke Bryan remain neck and neck, and could perhaps battle each other for #1 next week. FGL's "Dirt" will move up to #4 with Jason Aldean moving up to #6. Sam Hunt should cruise into the top 10, while Miranda and Carrie's "Somethin' Bad" continues to struggle and will likely slip out of the top 10, at least for now. Blake Shelton's "Neon Light" continues to move up quickly, and Frankie Ballard looks to be just a couple of weeks from the top 10 as well.
Keith Urban and Maddie & Tae have both had great weeks, and Parmalee has also picked up steam. "Close Your Eyes" will become the band's 2nd top 20 hit. Scotty McCreery should also hit the top 20 for the 4th time in his career, with Garth Brooks rebounding slightly and likely to move back up to #21, followed by Rascal Flatts and Chase Bryant.
Brad Paisley's "Perfect Storm" continues its red hot start; look for him to blast into the top 30, likely all the way up at #24. David Nail and Hunter Hayes have picked up the pace a bit compared to recent weeks, while Dan + Shay and Justin Moore have had rough weeks. Justin is likely to get pushed back a few spots, as Darius Rucker, Randy Houser, Tim McGraw, Brett Eldredge, and Lee Brice all come surging up. Darius should surge into the top 30 with Randy also closing in on the top 30 milestone, and Tim McGraw's "Shotgun Rider" and Lee Brice's "Drinking Class" continuing their strong starts.
Jake Owen's "What We Ain't Got" is getting lost in the shuffle a bit but still hanging in there and gaining small amounts of audience. RCA label-mate Chris Young is in the same boat. Thomas Rhett has had a strong week with "Make Me Wanna" but both RaeLynn and Jana Kramer continue to really struggle. John King, Kristian Bush, Jerrod Niemann, Canaan Smith, Dean Alexander, and Montgomery Gentry also continue to move very slowly.
Look for a very strong debut for Eric Church's "Talladega"--I've got him checking in at #44 with around 2.6 million, give or take a bit. Easton Corbin should move into the top 50 after a pretty nice week, and Josh Turner, Lindsay Ell, and Kelleigh Bannen have all had fairly good weeks as well. Look for Jackie Lee to score a pretty solid debut and also look for Trisha Yearwood to return to the chart for the first time since 2008 (not counting her brief appearance as a featured artist on Garth's "The Call" last fall, which only charted from unsolicited airplay). The final chart spot looks to be up for grabs among American Young's struggling sophomore single, Cole Swindell's album track "Brought To You By Beer", Chris Lane's debut single "Broken Windshield View", and Jon Pardi's latest single "When I've Been Drinkin'".
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2014 14:55:05 GMT -5
Here are my predictions/projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart (chart date 10/11)! :)
01) Cole Swindell – “Hope You Get Lonely Tonight” (50.600) 02) Luke Bryan – “Roller Coaster” (48.890) 03) Florida Georgia Line – “Dirt” (47.350) 04) Jason Aldean – “Burnin’ It Down” (43.660) 05) Dustin Lynch – “Where It’s At” (41.720) [last week?] 06) Kenny Chesney – “American Kids” (37.770) [last week] 07) Chase Rice – “Ready, Set, Roll” (35.680) 08) Blake Shelton – “Neon Light” (32.240) 09-11) Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood – “Somethin’ Bad” (31.680) 09-11) Sam Hunt – “Leave The Night On” (31.650) 09-11) Brantley Gilbert f/ Thomas Rhett & Justin Moore – “Small Town Throwdown” (31.110) 12) Frankie Ballard – “Sunshine & Whiskey” (30.260) 13) Little Big Town – “Day Drinking” (27.650) 14) Keith Urban – “Somewhere In My Car” (25.940) 15) The Swon Brothers – “Later On” (24.200) 16) Maddie & Tae – “Girl In A Country Song” (23.210) 17) Big & Rich – “Look At You” (21.010) 18) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (17.860) 19) Scotty McCreery – “Feelin’ It” (16.840) 20) Brad Paisley – “Perfect Storm” (14.860) 21-22) Garth Brooks – “People Loving People” (13.620) 21-22) Chase Bryant – “Take It On Back” (13.600) 23) Rascal Flatts – “Payback” (12.880) 24) Tim McGraw – “Shotgun Rider” (11.580) 25) David Nail – “Kiss You Tonight” (10.890) 26-27) Hunter Hayes – “Tattoo” (10.240) 26-27) Darius Rucker – “Homegrown Honey” (10.210) 28-29) Brothers Osborne – “Rum” (8.870) 28-29) Dan + Shay – “Show You Off” (8.770) 30-31) Thomas Rhett – “Make Me Wanna” (7.770) 30-31) Brett Eldredge – “Mean To Me” (7.670) 32-33) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (7.430) 32-33) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (7.420) 34) Jake Owen – “What We Ain’t Got” (6.580) 35-36) RaeLynn – “God Made Girls” (5.940) 35-36) Eric Church – “Talladega” (5.640) 37) Chris Young – “Lonely Eyes” (5.570) 38) Jana Kramer – “Love” (4.900) 39) Kenny Chesney – “Til It’s Gone” (3.900) [NEW!] 40) John King – “Tonight, Tonight” (3.500) 41-43) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (3.060) 41-43) Jerrod Niemann – “Buzz Back Girl” (3.040) 41-43) Kristian Bush – “Trailer Hitch” (3.000) 44) Joe Nichols – “Hard To Be Cool” (2.650) 45-46) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (2.200) 45-46) The Cadillac Three – “Party Like You” (2.170) 47-49) Josh Turner – “Lay Low” (1.650) 47-49) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (1.650) 47-49) Montgomery Gentry – “Headlights” (1.620) 50-52) Dean Alexander – “Live A Little” (1.500) 50-52) Lindsay Ell – “Shut Me Up” (1.350) 50-52) Trisha Yearwood f/ Kelly Clarkson – “Prize Fighter” (1.350) 53-55) Jason Aldean – “Sweet Little Somethin’” 53-55) Lucy Hale – “Lie A Little Better” 53-55) Jackie Lee – “She Does” 56-57) Jon Pardi – “When I’ve Been Drinkin’” [NEW!] 56-57) Craig Morgan - "We'll Come Back Around" 58-60) Kelleigh Bannen – “You Are What You Love” [RE-ENTRY] 58-60) Native Run – “Good On You” [NEW!] 58-60) American Young – “Wasn’t Gonna Drink Tonight” [RE-ENTRY]
Other Possibilities:
* Kelsea Ballerini's "Love Me Like You Mean It" * Chris Lane's "Broken Windshield View" * Josh Abbott Band's "Hangin' Around" * Will Hoge's "Middle Of America" * Dierks Bentley's "Say You Do" * Sara Evans' "Put My Heart Down"
Dropping Off: Lady Antebellum's "Bartender" (#1 peak), Eric Church's "Cold One" (#20 peak), Justin Moore's "Home Sweet Home" (#30 peak), Ben Rue's "I Can't Wait (Be My Wife)" (#56 peak), and Tim McGraw's "Keep On Truckin'" (#60 peak)
Comments:
Cole Swindell is set to score his first Billboard Country Airplay #1 with "Hope You Get Lonely Tonight", and it looks like he'll re-write Dustin Lynch's audience record from last week. Luke Bryan will move up to #2 with Florida Georgia Line at #3, and Jason Aldean surging up to #4. Look for Blake Shelton to blast into the top 10. Miranda and Carrie's "Somethin' Bad" has picked up some steam, making for a very competitive battle with Brantley Gilbert, Sam Hunt, and Blake Shelton. Furthermore, this group of songs isn't too far behind Chase Rice, and not too far ahead of a surging Frankie Ballard either, so we definitely have an interesting part of the chart here with a lot of big names and popular newcomers.
Keith Urban should bound up a couple more spots and into the top 15, with Maddie & Tae also on the move. The Swon Brothers, however, continue to move very slowly. Brad Paisley should storm into the top 20, passing Chase Bryant, Rascal Flatts, and Garth Brooks in the process. Garth's "People Loving People" continues to see small gains, and Rascal Flatts continues to really struggle. Tim McGraw is off to another fast start with "Shotgun Rider", which should blast all the way into the top 25. Darius Rucker is also off to a pretty good start with "Homegrown Honey", and both David Nail and Hunter Hayes have had pretty good weeks. Brothers Osborne and Dan + Shay have also picked up the pace a bit this week, but they've got some competition approaching in the form of Thomas Rhett, Brett Eldredge, and Lee Brice. Randy Houser, Jake Owen, and RaeLynn continue to move at a bit of a slower pace.
Eric Church has had a big 2nd week on the chart and should motor into the top 40 as a result. Also look for a strong top 40 debut for Kenny Chesney's new single "Til It's Gone". Meanwhile Chris Young continues to move slowly, and Jana Kramer continues to really struggle. John King, another slow-mover, might be able to re-enter the top 40, as both Tyler Farr and Jerrod Niemann continue to struggle and not pose a threat. Kristian Bush's "Trailer Hitch" is also struggling to move up much at all. The neo-traditionalists Joe Nichols, Easton Corbin, and Josh Turner have all had decent weeks, and each should move up a few places through the 40's.
It appears that Trisha Yearwood has had a solid 2nd week on the chart, so look for her "Prize Fighter" to make a big stride toward the top 50. For debuts, we'll of course have Kenny in the top 40 (likely at #39), as well as Jon Pardi and perhaps Native Run.
I'm less sure on how the bottom few spots will shake out this week, mostly because it's a little harder to discern some of those songs' audience numbers on AllAccess. Kelleigh Bannen will probably re-enter, but American Young will have a tougher road to get back on the charts. Other songs that could debut or land very close to the top 60 include Kelsea Ballerini's "Love Me Like You Mean It", Chris Lane's "Broken Windshield View", Josh Abbott Band's "Hangin' Around", Will Hoge's "Middle Of America", Dierks Bentley's "Say You Do", and Sara Evans' "Put My Heart Down". I'm also not entirely confident in my prediction that Justin Moore will go recurrent, but I'm thinking that Valory might pull the plug on that one.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2014 1:10:29 GMT -5
Here are my projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart. :)
01) Jason Aldean – “Burnin’ It Down” (46.980) 02) Sam Hunt – “Leave The Night On” (46.280) 03) Blake Shelton – “Neon Light” (43.800) 04) Little Big Town – “Day Drinking” (40.670) 05) Frankie Ballard – “Sunshine & Whiskey” (40.020) 06) Florida Georgia Line – “Dirt” (37.140) [last week?] 07) Keith Urban – “Somewhere In My Car” (35.290) 08) Brantley Gilbert f/ Thomas Rhett & Justin Moore – “Small Town Throwdown” (33.420) [last week?] 09-10) Maddie & Tae – “Girl In A Country Song” (31.500) 09-10) Chase Rice – “Ready, Set, Roll” (31.310) [last week] 11) Big & Rich – “Look At You” (24.810) 12) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (24.300) 13) Tim McGraw – “Shotgun Rider” (22.870) 14) Carrie Underwood – “Something In The Water” (22.400) 15) Brad Paisley – “Perfect Storm” (21.520) 16) Scotty McCreery – “Feelin’ It” (20.340) 17) Kenny Chesney – “Til It’s Gone” (18.250) 18) Eric Church – “Talladega” (15.300) 19) Chase Bryant – “Take It On Back” (14.690) 20-21) David Nail – “Kiss You Tonight” (14.210) 20-21) Darius Rucker – “Homegrown Honey” (14.070) 22) Brett Eldredge – “Mean To Me” (12.400) 23-26) Hunter Hayes – “Tattoo” (11.630) 23-26) Dan + Shay – “Show You Off” (11.390) 23-26) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (11.290) 23-26) RaeLynn – “God Made Girls” (11.240) 27) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (10.720) 28) Thomas Rhett – “Make Me Wanna” (10.050) 29) Florida Georgia Line – “Sun Daze” (9.420) 30) Chris Young – “Lonely Eyes” (8.200) 31) Jake Owen – “What We Ain’t Got” (7.410) 32) Kristian Bush – “Trailer Hitch” (5.220) 33-34) Jana Kramer – “Love” (4.900) 33-34) Toby Keith – “Drunk Americans” (4.500) 35-37) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (3.950) 35-37) The Band Perry – “Gentle On My Mind” (3.890) 35-37) Joe Nichols – “Hard To Be Cool” (3.760) 38-39) Jerrod Niemann – “Buzz Back Girl” (3.610) 38-39) Dierks Bentley – “Say You Do” (3.550) 40-41) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (2.980) 40-41) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (2.900) 42) Trisha Yearwood f/ Kelly Clarkson – “Prize Fighter” (2.600) 43-44) The Cadillac Three – “Party Like You” (2.440) 43-44) Lady Antebellum – “Freestyle” (2.300) 45-46) Josh Turner – “Lay Low” (2.120) 45-46) Montgomery Gentry – “Headlights” (2.100) 47) The Railers – “Kinda Dig The Feeling” (1.650) 48-49) Lindsay Ell – “Shut Me Up” (1.400) 48-49) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (1.400) 50-54) Jackie Lee – “She Does” (1.150) 50-54) Cole Swindell – “Ain’t Worth The Whiskey” 50-54) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” [NEW!] 50-54) Josh Abbott Band – “Hangin’ Around” 50-54) Jon Pardi – “When I’ve Been Drinkin’” 55-59) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” 55-59) Jason Aldean – “Just Getting Started” [NEW!] 55-59) Justin Moore – “This Kind Of Town” [NEW!] 55-59) Sara Evans – “Put My Heart Down” [NEW!] 55-59) Gloriana – “Trouble” [NEW!] 60) Will Hoge – “Middle Of America” [NEW!]
Dropping Off:
* Luke Bryan's "Roller Coaster" (18 weeks, #1 peak) * Garth Brooks' "People Loving People" (7 weeks, #19 peak) * Rascal Flatts' "Payback" (20 weeks, #21 peak) * Justin Moore's "Home Sweet Home" (16 weeks, #30 peak) * John King's "Tonight, Tonight" (24 weeks, #39 peak) * Jason Aldean's "Sweet Little Somethin'"
Comments:
Quite a bit of movement on the chart this week as we should lose 5-6 songs. Luke, Garth, Rascal Flatts, Justin, and John will all definitely go recurrent. I'm not as sure about the Aldean album track but I'm leaning towards it dropping off as well, especially now that some stations have started to play his likely next single "Just Getting Started" (which has a good chance to debut near the low end of the charts).
Speaking of Jason, his "Burnin' It Down" should hang on for a 2nd week at #1. Sam Hunt has had a big week but will have to wait one more week to take over the top spot. Look for Little Big Town and Frankie Ballard to surge into the top 5 as both songs have had strong weeks and look like likely #1 hits in the not-so-distant future. Keith Urban has also had a big week; his "Somewhere In My Car" is poised to move up to #7, which would mean it will out-peak Keith's last single, "Cop Car" (#8). And new to the top 10 this week will be Maddie & Tae's "Girl In A Country Song"! The duo has a good chance to slide on past Chase Rice's plummeting tune and grab the #9 spot.
Big & Rich should move up to #11...with one more good week, they should be able to crack the top 10. Parmalee might be able to enter the top 10 soon as well, but they had a slower week and thus they're gonna have to live with Tim McGraw and Carrie Underwood breathing down their necks. Parmalee's best hope is that they can hold off at least 1 of those songs, and they really need the bottom to fall out on "Small Town Throwdown". I'm pretty confident that 2 more top 10 songs (FGL & Chase) will drop off next week Monday, but 3 is a possibility (again, if Brantley's tune collapses).
Brad Paisley will enter the top 15 on tomorrow's chart, and Eric Church will blast into the top 20. "Talladega" looks poised to move up to #18 in just its 6th chart week. Eric's previous single, "Cold One", took almost 3 times as long just to reach its #20 peak position. Meanwhile, look for RaeLynn to blast into the top 30 thanks to Clear Channel's On The Verge program. Florida Georgia Line's "Sun Daze" and Chris Young's "Lonely Eyes" should also enter the top 30.
Toby Keith has suffered from the second week "hangover" after receiving hourly spins in his 1st week, but "Drunk Americans"'s fall should be buffered a bit due to a handful of songs going recurrent. This will also allow for several new songs to enter the top 40, including Tyler Farr's "A Guy Walks Into A Bar", Joe Nichols' "Hard To Be Cool", Jerrod Niemann's "Buzz Back Girl", and Dierks Bentley's "Say You Do". Canaan Smith's "Love You Like That" might also sneak into the top 40, although it has had a rough week after two good weeks, and he may have some competition for that #40 slot from Mercury label-mate Easton Corbin. Lady Antebellum's "Freestyle" should stride toward the top 40, while Trisha Yearwood, The Cadillac Three, and Montgomery Gentry continue to inch their way through the 40's.
I'm expecting to see debuts from Billy Currington, Jason Aldean, Justin Moore, Sara Evans, Gloriana, and possibly Will Hoge.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2014 21:50:16 GMT -5
Here are my projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart! :)
01) Sam Hunt – “Leave The Night On” (47.980) 02) Blake Shelton – “Neon Light” (47.310) 03-04) Little Big Town – “Day Drinking” (43.890) 03-04) Frankie Ballard – “Sunshine & Whiskey” (43.830) 05) Jason Aldean – “Burnin’ It Down” (43.120) 06) Keith Urban – “Somewhere In My Car” (41.300) 07) Maddie & Tae – “Girl In A Country Song” (34.740) 08) Big & Rich – “Look At You” (27.720) 09-10) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (26.800) 09-10) Tim McGraw – “Shotgun Rider” (26.600) 11) Carrie Underwood – “Something In The Water” (25.820) 12) Brad Paisley – “Perfect Storm” (25.100) 13-14) Kenny Chesney – “Til It’s Gone” (23.080) 13-14) Scotty McCreery – “Feelin’ It” (22.930) 15) Eric Church – “Talladega” (19.560) 16) Darius Rucker – “Homegrown Honey” (17.180) 17) David Nail – “Kiss You Tonight” (16.450) 18) Chase Bryant – “Take It On Back” (15.910) 19-20) Florida Georgia Line – “Sun Daze” (14.550) 19-20) RaeLynn – “God Made Girls” (14.330) 21) Brett Eldredge – “Mean To Me” (13.950) 22-23) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (13.220) 22-23) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (12.850) 24-25) Dan + Shay – “Show You Off” (12.440) 24-25) Thomas Rhett – “Make Me Wanna” (12.260) 26) Hunter Hayes – “Tattoo” (11.300) 27) Chris Young – “Lonely Eyes” (9.340) 28) Jake Owen – “What We Ain’t Got” (8.960) 29) Kristian Bush – “Trailer Hitch” (5.790) 30-31) Jana Kramer – “Love” (5.410) 30-31) Toby Keith – “Drunk Americans” (5.300) 32-33) Lady Antebellum – “Freestyle” (4.980) 32-33) The Band Perry – “Gentle On My Mind” (4.970) 34) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (4.610) 35-36) Jerrod Niemann – “Buzz Back Girl” (4.320) 35-36) Dierks Bentley – “Say You Do” (4.210) 37) Joe Nichols – “Hard To Be Cool” (3.770) 38) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (3.150) 39-40) Josh Turner – “Lay Low” (2.820) 39-40) Trisha Yearwood f/ Kelly Clarkson – “Prize Fighter” (2.770) 41-44) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (2.430) 41-44) The Cadillac Three – “Party Like You” (2.350) 41-44) Montgomery Gentry – “Headlights” (2.300) 41-44) Gloriana – “Trouble” (2.300) 45-47) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (2.000) 45-47) Cole Swindell – “Ain’t Worth The Whiskey” (1.950) 45-47) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (1.900) 48-51) Jon Pardi – “When I’ve Been Drinkin’” (1.600) 48-51) Josh Abbott Band – “Hangin’ Around” (1.500) 48-51) The Railers – “Kinda Dig The Feeling” (1.450) 48-51) Lindsay Ell – “Shut Me Up” 52-54) Justin Moore – “This Kind Of Town” 52-54) Jackie Lee – “She Does” 52-54) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” 55-57) Jason Aldean – “Just Gettin’ Started” 55-57) Lucy Hale – “Lie A Little Better” 55-57) Sara Evans – “Put My Heart Down” 58) Will Hoge – “Middle Of America” [NEW!] 59) The Swon Brothers – “Pray For You” [NEW!] 60) Chris Lane – “Broken Windshield View” [RE-ENTRY]
Dropping Off:
* Florida Georgia Line's "Dirt" (16 weeks, #1 peak) * Chase Rice's "Ready, Set, Roll" (50 weeks, #5 peak) * Brantley Gilbert's "Small Town Throwdown" (24 weeks, #8 peak)
Comments:
Sam Hunt is poised to score his first #1 hit with his very first single. Blake Shelton's "Neon Light" will move up to #2, as he looks to make it 13 straight #1's next week. Little Big Town and Frankie Ballard continue to battle it out while Keith Urban has had his best week yet thanks to a huge week of conversions; Keith should close in on the top 5. Maddie & Tae also continue to move up strongly; their "Girl In A Country Song" should find itself up 2 more spots to #7. And finally, with the collapse of several recent top 10 hits, look for slow-climbers Big & Rich and Parmalee to both enter the top 10 this week, along with the much speedier-climbing "Shotgun Rider" from Tim McGraw. Carrie Underwood and Brad Paisley should finish just outside the top 10.
Kenny Chesney continues his fast start, and Scotty McCreery has also had a pretty big week. Look for Eric Church's "Talladega" to race into the top 15. Darius Rucker should also move up a few spots. David Nail has had a big week and looks likely to move 21-17. Look for Florida Georgia Line's "Sun Daze" to blast into the top 20 in just its 4th chart week. New On The Verge artist RaeLynn should also crack the top 20, as it looks like she'll remain just ahead of Brett Eldredge. Randy Houser and Lee Brice have both had strong weeks and will both take big strides toward the top 20, while Hunter Hayes continues to spin his tires. Jake Owen has had a nice rebound week and we should see him easily enter the top 30 as a result. Slower-movers Kristian Bush and Jana Kramer might also crack the top 30 at last, thanks in large part to the housecleaning over the last 2 weeks. Just a few weeks ago more than 9 million was needed to crack the top 30, but it looks like Kristian will get to #29 on tomorrow's chart with closer to 5.8 million. Jana has the slight edge for the #30 spot although it's looking like it will be a very close race with Toby Keith.
Lady A should move up a bunch more spots, while Easton Corbin, Josh Turner, and Trisha Yearwood all look likely to enter the top 40. Canaan Smith has had a rough week which will likely keep him outside the top 40, while it's been the opposite for Gloriana--their new single "Trouble" is off to a fast start. Eric Paslay, Cole Swindell, Billy Currington, and the Josh Abbott Band have also had pretty good weeks and should see some decent movement on the chart. Finally, look for debuts from Will Hoge and The Swon Brothers, and a likely re-entry from Chris Lane.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2014 14:38:15 GMT -5
I had some free time today :) What better way to spend it than crunching chart numbers, converting MB data to BB data? My projections for tomorrow's Billboard top 60, including projected audience totals (in millions of impressions): 01) Tim McGraw – “Shotgun Rider” (47.300) 02) Brad Paisley – “Perfect Storm” (44.170) 03) Kenny Chesney – “Til It’s Gone” (39.800) 04) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (39.290) 05) Maddie & Tae – “Girl In A Country Song” (38.340) 06) Carrie Underwood – “Something In The Water” (37.590) 07) Eric Church – “Talladega” (35.750) 08) Keith Urban – “Somewhere In My Car” (33.210) [last week]09) Florida Georgia Line – “Sun Daze” (30.510) 10) Luke Bryan – “I See You” (27.900) 11) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (25.900) 12) Brett Eldredge – “Mean To Me” (23.700) 13-14) Chase Bryant – “Take It On Back” (23.000) 13-14) Darius Rucker – “Homegrown Honey” (22.890) 15) Thomas Rhett – “Make Me Wanna” (22.260) 16) Jason Aldean – “Just Gettin’ Started” (21.260) 17-18) David Nail – “Kiss You Tonight” (19.350) 17-18) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (19.340) 19) Blake Shelton f/ Ashley Monroe – “Lonely Tonight” (18.820) 20) RaeLynn – “God Made Girls” (18.120) 21) Chris Young – “Lonely Eyes” (16.450) 22) Dan + Shay – “Show You Off” (14.390) 23) Jake Owen – “What We Ain’t Got” (13.760) 24) Lady Antebellum – “Freestyle” (11.980) 25) Cole Swindell – “Ain’t Worth The Whiskey” (9.150) 26-27) Dierks Bentley – “Say You Do” (7.950) 26-27) Kristian Bush – “Trailer Hitch” (7.660) 28) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (6.820) 29) Toby Keith – “Drunk Americans” (6.290) 30) The Band Perry – “Gentle On My Mind” (5.720) 31-34) Jana Kramer – “Love” (5.500) 31-34) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (5.420) 31-34) Garth Brooks – “Mom” (5.360) 31-34) Sam Hunt – “Take Your Time” (5.320) 35) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (4.930) 36) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (4.620) 37-41) Gloriana – “Trouble” (4.370) 37-41) Josh Turner – “Lay Low” (4.200) 37-41) Joe Nichols – “Hard To Be Cool” (4.150) 37-41) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (4.080) 37-41) Jerrod Niemann – “Buzz Back Girl” (4.030) 42) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (3.360) 43) Montgomery Gentry – “Headlights” (3.080) 44) Jon Pardi – “When I’ve Been Drinkin’” (2.670) 45-47) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (2.220) 45-47) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (2.040) 45-47) Justin Moore – “This Kind Of Town” (2.000) 48-50) Josh Abbott Band – “Hangin’ Around” (1.720) 48-50) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (1.680) 48-50) The Swon Brothers – “Pray For You” (1.670) 51-53) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” 51-53) Rodney Atkins – “Eat, Sleep, Love You, Repeat” 51-53) Jackie Lee – “She Does” 54) The Railers – “Kinda Dig The Feeling" 55) Will Hoge – “Middle Of America” 56-59) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” [NEW!]56-59) Steven Lee Olsen – “Raised By A Good Time” [NEW!]56-59) Chris Lane – “Broken Windshield View” 56-59) Lucy Hale – “Lie A Little Better” [last week]60) Haley & Michaels – “Just Another Love Song” [NEW!]Dropping Off:*Big & Rich - "Look At You" (#7 peak, 41 weeks) *Scotty McCreery - "Feelin' It" (#10 peak, 35 weeks) Comments:Tim McGraw will comfortably land at the top of the chart, which will give him his 27th Billboard Country Airplay #1. Brad Paisley will move up to #2 with Kenny Chesney at #3 and Parmalee at #4. Carrie Underwood and Eric Church have both had big weeks, and both Florida Georgia Line and Luke Bryan should move into the top 10 with Randy Houser likely to fall behind Luke and settle for the #11 spot. Thomas Rhett should enter the top 15 as he continues to close in on Chase Bryant and Darius Rucker. Jason Aldean also continues to move up swiftly; he'll pass David Nail, and Lee Brice might be able to sneak ahead of David as well. "Kiss You Tonight" has definitely been moving slower than most of the other songs around it, but David continues to hang in there, having added more than 500k in audience on Mediabase over the last 6 days. Look for Blake Shelton and Ashley Monroe to blast into the top 20. RaeLynn should also move up a bit and re-match her #20 peak so far. Jake Owen and Lady Antebellum continue to move more slowly, with Cole Swindell and Dierks Bentley now closing in somewhat. Dan + Shay might go recurrent, but it's too close to call, and right now I'm leaning towards them just barely re-bulleting on Billboard. Tyler Farr should surge into the top 30, while Toby Keith and The Band Perry continue to struggle. Jana Kramer also continues to spin her tires, and Garth Brooks' "Mom" has had a really slow week as well. Easton Corbin, on the other hand, has finally caught a bit of a spark with "Baby Be My Love Song". Sam Hunt continues his strong start with "Take Your Time". Both Eric Paslay and Billy Currington have had pretty good weeks, with Billy set to jump into the top 40 and pass a handful of songs along the way. Josh Turner has rebounded a bit this week and should move back into the top 40. Also, there's a pretty good chance for Black River recording artist Kelsea Ballerini to score her first top 40 hit with debut single "Love Me Like You Mean It", although the songs in that 37-41 section are projecting to a pretty narrow range of audience, and someone has to come in at #41--I'm predicting Jerrod Niemann to just barely be at the bottom of that group, but as you can see, there's not much margin for error in those numbers above. Anyway, look for Canaan Smith, Montgomery Gentry, Jon Pardi, and Dustin Lynch to continue to move slowly through the 40's. Justin Moore, Josh Abbott Band, Chase Rice, and The Swon Brothers are also moving rather slowly, while new artists Jackie Lee and The Railers are struggling to gain even just a tiny bit of traction. Brantley Gilbert should move up a few spots, and I expect we'll see debuts from Little Big Town and Steven Lee Olsen. The last spot on the chart looks to be a battle between Haley & Michaels and Katie Armiger...OR perhaps we could see a holiday song or two sneaking on the chart? We'll find out tomorrow!
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dajire4
Platinum Member
If you got such great ambition, then why are you still hanging around?
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Post by dajire4 on Dec 15, 2014 14:27:34 GMT -5
Last week the top 10 was one of my favorites, if not my favorite of the year: two female newcomers on top plus another female inside the top 10, a couple of newcomers in Scotty and Parmalee and early 2000s heavy-weights Tim McGraw, Kenny Chesney & Brad Paisley.
Edited to include this question: is it next week the freeze already?
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trebor
4x Platinum Member
Rock this quiet, little country town
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Post by trebor on Dec 17, 2014 14:26:27 GMT -5
Edited to include this question: is it next week the freeze already? The Airplay Charts don't freeze. They continue regularly every week for both Billboard and Mediabase. Only the country update/aircheck bulletins will not be published for about 2 weeks. Will try to post the Billboard Charts on the Billboard Country Chart thread.
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dajire4
Platinum Member
If you got such great ambition, then why are you still hanging around?
Joined: December 2011
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Post by dajire4 on Dec 17, 2014 17:47:42 GMT -5
Edited to include this question: is it next week the freeze already? The Airplay Charts don't freeze. They continue regularly every week for both Billboard and Mediabase. Only the country update/aircheck bulletins will not be published for about 2 weeks. Will try to post the Billboard Charts on the Billboard Country Chart thread. That's not what I meant by freeze. I mean the weeks where every song loses audience and then regains it
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Post by countryman87 on Dec 17, 2014 22:29:52 GMT -5
The Airplay Charts don't freeze. They continue regularly every week for both Billboard and Mediabase. Only the country update/aircheck bulletins will not be published for about 2 weeks. Will try to post the Billboard Charts on the Billboard Country Chart thread. That's not what I meant by freeze. I mean the weeks where every song loses audience and then regains it I wouldn't exactly call it a freeze but next week is when the slowdown occurs and it will be reflected on the Jan 10 chart then the Jan 17 chart everything will regain what they lost during the slowdown
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dajire4
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If you got such great ambition, then why are you still hanging around?
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Post by dajire4 on Dec 18, 2014 5:08:15 GMT -5
Basically, the next chart won't reflect the slowdown since it'll be January 3rd. It'll be a normal chart
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