HITS 12/27: Buble vs Adele~ 400k; Jeezy 200-225k

[Deleted]

YOUNG JEEZY IS
2011'S LAST HURRAH
Year Over Year Narrows to 1%, with Black Ink Hanging in the Balance

December 21, 2011

Will year-to-year sales finish in the black for a record industry that hasn't seen a positive trend in almost seven years?

That's the big question facing the beleaguered music biz, with sales down 10% vs. the same week last year, the total positive margin over 2010 is now just a slim 1%.

With just two more weeks left in the chart year, it looks like we'll really need those gift card redemptions this weekend and next week to stay in positive territory for the year.

Since Christmas Day falls on a Sunday this year, which is the last reporting day for all Digital Service Providers, with what is sure to be an onslaught of gift cards, normal sales trends may not apply to this week's new releases.

Nevertheless, Def Jam/IDJ's Young Jeezy album, Thug Motivation 103: Hustlerz Ambition, hios fourth, looks set for an impressive first week sales number of between 200-225k, based on one-day reports from those retailers who took time out from making fun of Newt Gingrich's double chin to respond. The South Carolina-born rapper's previous album, The Recession, debuted with nearly 260k upon its release in Sept. 2008.

Windy City hip-hop icon Common's Think Common/Warner Bros. bow, The Dreamer/The Believer, looks headed for first-week sales of between 55-65k. His last album, 2008's Universal Mind Control, on G.O.O.D./Geffen, debuted with 82k.

Album sales were up 15% vs. last week, down 10% vs. same week last year and up 1% year to date.

Track sales were up 4% vs. last week, up 6% vs. same week last year and up 9% year to date.

TEA (Track Equivalent Album) sales were up 13% vs. last week, down 8% vs. same week last year and up 3% year to date.

Link: www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/newsPage.cgi?news08811m01

[Fat Ass Kelly Price]

For some reason Jeezy is always able to push at least 200k.

[Deleted]

I have to admit being a little surprised at Jeezy's numbers considering he has no real hit right now.

[slw84]

Dec 21, 2011 15:59:50 GMT -5 @cynthiarose said:

I have to admit being a little surprised at Jeezy's numbers considering he has no real hit right now.

Kudos to him...I thought he would pull half to be honest...get it Jeezy.

[Wave.]

So Jeezy may be #1?

[HolidayGuy]

I doubt Buble's album would fall as much as 50% this week, but who knows.

[kml567]

Wouldn't sales go up and not down this week? I was hoping albums would get an average of +30% increase this week...

[Deleted]

Well it is the busiest shopping week of the year and it's all about those last minute shoppers. Buble will probably decline as people aren't going to buy a Christmas album this close to Christmas, but not by much. Week after will be his steep drop off.

And then there's Adele. Don't think she'll match her debut sales but I can see her getting 300k+

[areyoureadytojump]

Dec 21, 2011 16:22:11 GMT -5 kml567 said:

Wouldn't sales go up and not down this week? I was hoping albums would get an average of +30% increase this week...

Sales of Christmas albums always peak early and then slowly decrease...

Buble was down this week in sales.

He'll probably decrease more next week.

[Black Jesus]

Dec 21, 2011 16:18:45 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

I doubt Buble's album would fall as much as 50% this week, but who knows.

This. Buble will move at least 350k next week. It seems like this is the hot album to gift this Christmas. He will easily be #1.

The week after Christmas though...

[Deleted]

Imma enjoy these sales while they last.. cuz we all what the sales numbers will be like in 2 weeks
40k #1 albums here we come

[Deleted]

Jeezy and the TM series are staple in the hip hop community. It's always going to be a highly anticipated release, regardless of however his single does I think. He's in the same territory as Wayne, Drake, T.I, as a someone who will probably always be able to push great numbers even if his singles don't make noise.

[Nick]

For anyone who may not remember, Young Jeezy was on Mariah's "Side Effects". I forgot about that song.

His album was pushed back a lot, so that might have something to do with his numbers.

[Cerbius]

I think Adele has a good chance at #1. I see both her and Buble selling around 400k copies.

[Deleted]

BillBoard:

With only two sales weeks left in the year, Michael Buble's "Christmas" album seems assured to spend at least one more of those locked in the top slot on the Billboard 200 chart.

Industry sources project that "Christmas" will be No. 1 for a fifth straight week, based on sales forecasts for the week ending Sunday, Dec. 25 -- Christmas day.

It's a bit early to say how much "Christmas" will sell in the week, but generally, holiday sets tend to trail off in sales in the days right before Christmas. However, even with a drop, "Christmas" should secure a fifth week at the top. Last week, the set moved 448,000, according to Nielsen SoundScan.

Aiming for a top five debut is Young Jeezy's "TM:103 Hustlerz Ambition," which could start with 150,000 to 200,000. His last set, 2008's "The Recession," opened at No. 1 on the tally dated Sept. 20, moving 260,000 in its first week.

The next-highest debut should come from Common's "The Dreamer, the Believer," which may sell around 50,000 to 60,000. The hip-hop star's previous release, "Universal Mind Control," debuted and peaked at No. 12 in 2008, off an 82,000 launch.

www.billboard.com/#/column/chartbeat/buble-s-christmas-will-top-billboard-200-1005718552.story

[DJ General]

Young Jeezy has always been reliable. He has a lot of fans. Doesn't need a big single to make an impact.

[Deleted]

Dec 21, 2011 17:51:16 GMT -5 @swella said:

Jeezy and the TM series are staple in the hip hop community. It's always going to be a highly anticipated release, regardless of however his single does I think. He's in the same territory as Wayne, Drake, T.I, as a someone who will probably always be able to push great numbers even if his singles don't make noise.

This is true. I knew he still had a loyal following, I just underestimated the size of that following. I was expecting ~150k for him at most, so that's why I say I was 'slightly' surprised.

That Hits didn't guess on his chart placement and Billboard only gave him a probable top 5 bow indicates that the top 2 is expected to be the same - Buble #1, Adele #2 (possibility of Adele taking #1 though if Buble falls enough and her jump into the 300's is high enough). But I wonder why BB only gave him an expected top 5 instead of top 3...I can't imagine anything else having a sudden resurgence into 200k+ territory for this week.

[Deleted]

Dec 21, 2011 21:21:10 GMT -5 @cynthiarose said:

Dec 21, 2011 17:51:16 GMT -5 @swella said:

Jeezy and the TM series are staple in the hip hop community. It's always going to be a highly anticipated release, regardless of however his single does I think. He's in the same territory as Wayne, Drake, T.I, as a someone who will probably always be able to push great numbers even if his singles don't make noise.

This is true. I knew he still had a loyal following, I just underestimated the size of that following. I was expecting ~150k for him at most, so that's why I say I was 'slightly' surprised.

That Hits didn't guess on his chart placement and Billboard only gave him a probable top 5 bow indicates that the top 2 is expected to be the same - Buble #1, Adele #2 (possibility of Adele taking #1 though if Buble falls enough and her jump into the 300's is high enough). But I wonder why BB only gave him an expected top 5 instead of top 3...I can't imagine anything else having a sudden resurgence into 200k+ territory for this week.

Yeah I noticed that too but I'm not sure if BB focus that heavily on "Top 3" as one of the major go-to placements like we do. They probably just see #1, Top 5, Top 10, Top 20. Whereas majority of us here generally note Top 3 and Top 15 as popular chart placements.

[Deleted]

The only the other thing I could see outselling him is Bieber.. but even that's a stretch as his album will decrease like Buble's..

Also, will HITS publish it's usual Thursday update this week?

[Black Jesus]

Knew Buble would end up with the #1

[badrobot]

They might be hesitant to make overly specific predictions because Christmas day digital sales are kind of a wildcard.

[chopped89]

Ouch @common's numbers!

[Enigma.]

Dec 21, 2011 19:46:52 GMT -5 @gagalicious said:

Aiming for a top five debut is Young Jeezy's "TM:103 Hustlerz Ambition," which could start with 150,000 to 200,000. His last set, 2008's "The Recession," opened at No. 1 on the tally dated Sept. 20, moving 260,000 in its first week.

I knew 220k, which was predicted, was too much. Still ok I guess.

[DJ General]

Dec 22, 2011 1:41:08 GMT -5 chopped89 said:

Ouch @common's numbers!

Those are great for him. ???

[slw84]

Dec 21, 2011 18:53:26 GMT -5 Cerbius said:

I think Adele has a good chance at #1. I see both her and Buble selling around 400k copies.

I love adele but what the heck is getting her to shift those units...no promo RITD and SLY have peaked and there has been little promo for SFTTR.

Can't wait to see her spike after the Grammy's SFTTR should be top 5 in airplay by then.

[HolidayGuy]

People know Adele's been the big deal of the year, so when looking for gifts, they pick the album up. Plus, SFTTR is making nice gains at radio. Sometimes an act doesn't need a heap of promo if they have a current radio hit and such.

[badrobot]

It's funny what people think of as "promo."

Adele is basically not doing anything right now but everyone is talking about her, playing her music, magazines and blogs are putting her at the top of their year-end lists -- others are really doing the promoting for her at this point.

I think it shows what happens when you have that rare perfect storm of being (relatively) commercially friendly, critically respected, and appealing to a broad audience.

[Deleted]

Dec 22, 2011 13:54:05 GMT -5 slw84 said:

Dec 21, 2011 18:53:26 GMT -5 Cerbius said:

I think Adele has a good chance at #1. I see both her and Buble selling around 400k copies.

I love adele but what the heck is getting her to shift those units...no promo RITD and SLY have peaked and there has been little promo for SFTTR.

Can't wait to see her spike after the Grammy's SFTTR should be top 5 in airplay by then.

SFTTR is just now approaching top 20 airplay, but apparently it only takes moderate exposure to keep 21's sales going (see how the song itself is already top five on iTunes now). I have seen people on Facebook say things like "Adele is so talented! I'm going to buy her album!" (status after the VMA performance) or "Okay, FB. I will finally admit it, I was wrong...I thought Adele was overrated but I finally got the album. I don't usually do female soul but 21 is #thetruth" (someone's status on Thanksgiving weekend).

For the life of me I'll never understand the logic in knowing something has been out but waiting almost a year to finally get it, or on not even bothering to find the track listing and then preview all the songs on Youtube, but I guess that's because I'm kind of obsessed with music so I'm always trying to listen to stuff right away. A lot of people do the opposite. And other people won't get it until someone they know recommends it - on that Thanksgiving status, three or four different people responded with "Oh, so I should go get it?"

And this is not to mention the ones who don't even think about buying an album until they've heard three or four singles first. So there are people out there who still haven't bought this album because they only know two songs of hers. I understand why Adele wants to quit after SFTTR but I'm finally getting why her fans really want a fourth and fifth single even if she doesn't promote them...because she really is leaving 2 or 3 million more on the table by only going three singles deep while the rest of the industry is struggling to even cross the 2 million mark at all. It's just insane what she is doing.

[slw84]

Dec 22, 2011 14:35:41 GMT -5 @cynthiarose said:

Dec 22, 2011 13:54:05 GMT -5 slw84 said:

I love adele but what the heck is getting her to shift those units...no promo RITD and SLY have peaked and there has been little promo for SFTTR.

Can't wait to see her spike after the Grammy's SFTTR should be top 5 in airplay by then.

SFTTR is just now approaching top 20 airplay, but apparently it only takes moderate exposure to keep 21's sales going (see how the song itself is already top five on iTunes now). I have seen people on Facebook say things like "Adele is so talented! I'm going to buy her album!" (status after the VMA performance) or "Okay, FB. I will finally admit it, I was wrong...I thought Adele was overrated but I finally got the album. I don't usually do female soul but 21 is #thetruth" (someone's status on Thanksgiving weekend).

For the life of me I'll never understand the logic in knowing something has been out but waiting almost a year to finally get it, or on not even bothering to find the track listing and then preview all the songs on Youtube, but I guess that's because I'm kind of obsessed with music so I'm always trying to listen to stuff right away. A lot of people do the opposite. And other people won't get it until someone they know recommends it - on that Thanksgiving status, three or four different people responded with "Oh, so I should go get it?"

And this is not to mention the ones who don't even think about buying an album until they've heard three or four singles first. So there are people out there who still haven't bought this album because they only know two songs of hers. I understand why Adele wants to quit after SFTTR but I'm finally getting why her fans really want a fourth and fifth single even if she doesn't promote them...because she really is leaving 2 or 3 million more on the table by only going three singles deep while the rest of the industry is struggling to even cross the 2 million mark at all. It's just insane what she is doing.

I'm going to throw ADumbele j/k some crazy shade in 2012 if she stops after SFTTR...Rumor Has it, Turning tables and/or I'll be waiting or I will cut a bish!

[Deleted]

www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/rumormill.cgi

ADELE FUN FACTS: Adele is on track to sell up to 6 million copies of her XL/ Columbia album 21 this year, with this week projected to hit as high as 400k. This will be the only time since 2004, and maybe only the second time ever, that the #1 album of the year will sell more than twice as much as the runner-up. Closing with a rush, Reprise crooner Michael Buble's Christmas is projected to hit 2.5 million by the end of the chart year, jumping over Lady Gaga's Born This Way for the #2 spot. In 2004, Usher's Confessions sold 7.98 million with Norah Jones' Feels Like Home landing at #2 by selling 3.84 million. In yet another Adele triumph, all three of her releases, which include her debut album, 19, and DVD release, Live at Royal Albert Hall, are projected to have their best-ever sales weeks. To read our own Roy Trakin’s interview with the lady of the year in music, conducted just before her debut album made her a star, click here. (12/22p)

holy shh.. :o