.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jan 25, 2012 14:58:37 GMT -5
I wouldn't expect this to debut any lower than Top 30, tbqh.
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NeRD
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Post by NeRD on Jan 25, 2012 14:59:28 GMT -5
YES! :o
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2012 16:39:55 GMT -5
With so much added hype. Do any of you guys think it will debut in the top 30? If they send it to radio on a Monday, there is no way it will miss the top 30. If it leaks and only gets a few days of airplay, it will still likely debut pretty well (30's somewhere) and then leap probably into the top 20 during week #2. If it doesn't leak at all, and they do get it to radio on a Monday, I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see it open in the top 20. I have a feeling that radio is going to jump all over this...the fans have been waiting and waiting, but so has radio. If Lady A's "Just A Kiss", Ronnie Dunn's "Bleed Red", Blake Shelton's "Honey Bee", and George Strait's "Here For A Good Time" can all debut top 30, then Carrie's lead single--her first single in a year--will have no trouble outdoing them (again, assuming it doesn't leak on a Friday or something like that). And I realize I haven't heard the song, nor has anyone else besides Carrie and the folks at the label, but I do think it will be good. Even if some people didn't like it that much, the hype will still be there, and it will have a good chance to debut high, as long as it doesn't leak.
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McCreerian
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Post by McCreerian on Jan 25, 2012 18:30:32 GMT -5
Wow this is the best news I've heard all day! Been waiting for this! Can't wait for new Carrie music, ugh one more month tho! I'll be SO worth the wait! I do predict a top 20 debut too!
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Post by countrygirl918 on Jan 25, 2012 19:16:57 GMT -5
Assuming it gets a full week's worth of airplay instead of leaking, I think it'll debut in the top 20 as well. It's been well over a year since Mama's Song was sent to radio, so I think radio will devour a new Carrie single.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Jan 25, 2012 19:54:58 GMT -5
Assuming it gets a full week's worth of airplay instead of leaking, I think it'll debut in the top 20 as well. It's been well over a year since Mama's Song was sent to radio, so I think radio will devour a new Carrie single. Maybe it can debut Top 10 a la a Garth Brooks single, lol...
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Post by StrongerThanTheTruth on Jan 25, 2012 20:33:57 GMT -5
Assuming it gets a full week's worth of airplay instead of leaking, I think it'll debut in the top 20 as well. It's been well over a year since Mama's Song was sent to radio, so I think radio will devour a new Carrie single. Maybe it can debut Top 10 a la a Garth Brooks single, lol... While I think new music from Carrie has been needed for a while now I don't think it is as needed as it was when Garth had a new single.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Jan 25, 2012 20:57:04 GMT -5
I hope this song is really good. Carrie has a great voice, but I haven't loved any of her singles since "Cowboy Casanova". I hope that the new album is more like Carnival Ride, and less like Play On. Really looking forward to hearing this, though.
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bornfearless2000
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Jan 25, 2012 22:47:40 GMT -5
i'm sure GG will debut inside top 15 (unless it leaks early)
Carrie looks so beautiful.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jan 26, 2012 8:35:07 GMT -5
It used to be that a lot of big stars wanted their songs released mid-week. That way, they didn't risk a high debut followed by a backward move in week 2. Maybe that's the Carrie plan, in which case she can still debut in the top 30 but not much higher. (It doesn't mean much to debut in the top 30 right now. Assuming a bit of a housecleaning some time between now and Carrie's release, she'd only need 4 million to make the BB top 40. That's not a big deal.)
If she does release on a Monday, she'd need 10.5 or 11 mill to debut in the top 20 -- that's not going to be easy. And she'd need at least 15 mill and maybe as much as 18 mill for a top 15 debut, which I won't say is impossible but it's very unlikely.
This song isn't going to be measured by how high she debuts anyway, so I doubt anybody puts in the effort to get it to a top 15 start. I don't think anybody would be able to summon up a top 15 debut right now without an awful lot of work -- but if anybody could do it, it's Garthie Carrie.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Jan 26, 2012 11:47:48 GMT -5
Zazie---I have to respectfully disagree with you.
The probability of any song by a format megastar declining in its second week (excluding the multiple aberrations and downright absurd opening week performance of Garth's 'MTAM') after a stupendous debut is almost nil IMHO, regardless of whether you're using BB or MB/CA; that certainly applies here since it's been ages since she's had a new single at the format.
I'm inclined to think that radio will undoubtedly jump all over this unless it's a hold-your-nose super-stinker a la 'Bob That Head' or 'She's A Hottie'.
Granted, the number of songs that were sent to radio on a Monday as opposed to Tuesday has noticeably increased in recent years, as many of us are aware of.
Of course, if it leaks a la 'Cowboy Casanova' or 'Never Wanted Nothing More', all bets are off.
But I do agree with you that for her label to 'push' for a top 25 or higher debut would be essentially pointless, and I'd be stunned if that happened, even if this turns out to be the best single of her career.
A superstar-level ride to #1 (10-15 weeks) can certainly take place regardless of where she debuts.
IIRC, 'Cownboy Casanova' shot to #1 in 10 weeks, and the biggest aberration about that tune is that it didn't spend the usual 4-6 or more weeks atop the charts that most songs which skyrocketed up the charts in a similar fashion over the past 15+ years have done.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jan 26, 2012 11:59:01 GMT -5
Zazie---I have to respectfully disagree with you. The probability of any song by a format megastar declining in its second week (excluding the multiple aberrations and downright absurd opening week performance of Garth's 'MTAM') after a stupendous debut is almost nil IMHO, regardless of whether you're using BB or MB/CA; that certainly applies here since it's been ages since she's had a new single at the format. I'm inclined to think that radio will undoubtedly jump all over this unless it's a hold-your-nose super-stinker a la 'Bob That Head' or 'She's A Hottie'. Granted, the number of songs that were sent to radio on a Monday as opposed to Tuesday has noticeably increased in recent years, as many of us are aware of. Of course, if it leaks a la 'Cowboy Casanova' or 'Never Wanted Nothing More', all bets are off. But I do agree with you that for her label to 'push' for a top 25 or higher debut would be essentially pointless, and I'd be stunned if that happened, even if this turns out to be the best single of her career. A superstar-level ride to #1 (10-15 weeks) can certainly take place regardless of where she debuts. IIRC, 'Cownboy Casanova' shot to #1 in 10 weeks, and the biggest aberration about that tune is that it didn't spend the usual 4-6 or more weeks atop the charts that most songs which skyrocketed up the charts in a similar fashion over the past 15+ years have done. You are correct. Cowboy Casanova was the fastest climbing #1 single in 2009 at ten weeks. However, it was replaced by the longest reigning #1 of the year-Need You Now (at five weeks). I still remember everyone saying that Carrie Underwood would get multiple weeks at #1 with Cowboy. Not to be.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jan 26, 2012 19:52:20 GMT -5
Zazie---I have to respectfully disagree with you. The probability of any song by a format megastar declining in its second week (excluding the multiple aberrations and downright absurd opening week performance of Garth's 'MTAM') after a stupendous debut is almost nil IMHO, regardless of whether you're using BB or MB/CA; that certainly applies here since it's been ages since she's had a new single at the format. I'm inclined to think that radio will undoubtedly jump all over this unless it's a hold-your-nose super-stinker a la 'Bob That Head' or 'She's A Hottie'. Granted, the number of songs that were sent to radio on a Monday as opposed to Tuesday has noticeably increased in recent years, as many of us are aware of. Of course, if it leaks a la 'Cowboy Casanova' or 'Never Wanted Nothing More', all bets are off. But I do agree with you that for her label to 'push' for a top 25 or higher debut would be essentially pointless, and I'd be stunned if that happened, even if this turns out to be the best single of her career. A superstar-level ride to #1 (10-15 weeks) can certainly take place regardless of where she debuts. IIRC, 'Cownboy Casanova' shot to #1 in 10 weeks, and the biggest aberration about that tune is that it didn't spend the usual 4-6 or more weeks atop the charts that most songs which skyrocketed up the charts in a similar fashion over the past 15+ years have done. I didn't express myself well, Marv. I shouldn't have said, and I didn't mean to say, that labels might think songs would go backwards in week 2. I meant that they might think songs would gain less in week 2 than they had in week 1, and therefore lose some momentum. As in fact does happen when songs get a ton of first-week airplay -- they can't keep gaining at that rate in week 2. I think that's the reason labels frequently used a mid-week release strategy, and I think it makes sense although nowadays it is less commonly used.
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Post by andrelandry on Jan 29, 2012 14:24:00 GMT -5
Can't wait to hear it! Hope we get to hear it before the release date!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2012 14:47:05 GMT -5
Does anyone think she'll sing this with Steven Tyler tomorrow night?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2012 14:48:53 GMT -5
Does anyone think she'll sing this with Steven Tyler tomorrow night? It's already been confirmed that she won't.
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tvoss20
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Post by tvoss20 on Feb 3, 2012 15:59:08 GMT -5
Wish this would leak somewhere, really wanna hear it!
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bornfearless2000
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Feb 3, 2012 21:08:26 GMT -5
Patience baby patience. 1 week to go according to my 'feeling'. lol
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Post by countrygirl918 on Feb 5, 2012 3:17:09 GMT -5
I want it to have a huge debut, so I'm good with waiting for the official release. No leaks, please!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2012 3:22:41 GMT -5
I want it to have a huge debut, so I'm good with waiting for the official release. No leaks, please! The more promo she gets (Crossroads will surely get her headlines come early in the morning, and Carrie's confirmed to have some sort of involvement at the Grammys next weekend), the bigger this debut will be. Carrie's been on too long of a hiatus (if you want to even call it a hiatus with all of the appearances she made in 2011) for people to not miss her and want more. She's getting front page internet headlines for her announcements on the OFC before the press release is even given. This song will debut huge; I can already feel it. And I don't think it'll leak. I think that the label will be keeping this one under lock and key until the release is ready. I have a feeling that we'll hear the single after Grammy weekend. With the Crossroads and Grammy weekends happening, I can't imagine her label not putting the song on iTunes, Amazon, YouTube, etc. We will hear it before the radio release on Feb. 23. No doubt.
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bornfearless2000
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Feb 5, 2012 6:02:14 GMT -5
yes, we will hear it before Feb 23.
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Post by andrelandry on Feb 5, 2012 16:48:44 GMT -5
I'm surprised we haven't heard anything about the music video, she said she was shooting it at the end of January!
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Feb 6, 2012 12:03:40 GMT -5
I want it to have a huge debut, so I'm good with waiting for the official release. No leaks, please! The more promo she gets (Crossroads will surely get her headlines come early in the morning, and Carrie's confirmed to have some sort of involvement at the Grammys next weekend), the bigger this debut will be. Carrie's been on too long of a hiatus (if you want to even call it a hiatus with all of the appearances she made in 2011) for people to not miss her and want more. She's getting front page internet headlines for her announcements on the OFC before the press release is even given. This song will debut huge; I can already feel it. And I don't think it'll leak. I think that the label will be keeping this one under lock and key until the release is ready. I have a feeling that we'll hear the single after Grammy weekend. With the Crossroads and Grammy weekends happening, I can't imagine her label not putting the song on iTunes, Amazon, YouTube, etc. We will hear it before the radio release on Feb. 23. No doubt. The single won't 'leak' until it's sent digitally to Play MPe the same day it will start getting massive airplay.
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erin1433
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Post by erin1433 on Feb 6, 2012 12:59:17 GMT -5
Everyone replying to this thread gets me excited every time that there might be a snippet added. Dang it! :(
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peterca
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Post by peterca on Feb 6, 2012 13:43:15 GMT -5
Can't get onto the Carriefans website... did GG get released? or some big news just happened??
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Post by justlurkingaround on Feb 13, 2012 8:19:21 GMT -5
Carrie let slip in a blog post that we're in the single digits till Good Girl. The post has been deleted since then.
Could we get the song before the 23rd? I sure hope so.
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bornfearless2000
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Feb 13, 2012 9:08:34 GMT -5
YES !
Less than a week!
GG will debut next week !
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Feb 13, 2012 10:57:08 GMT -5
Carrie let slip in a blog post that we're in the single digits till Good Girl. The post has been deleted since then. Could we get the song before the 23rd? I sure hope so. Well, technically, not including today, it is 9 days until the 23rd. Though I do imagine we'll hear this before then.
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mairy
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Post by mairy on Feb 13, 2012 12:33:30 GMT -5
I actually thing this is gonna be sent to radio today or tomorrow. That mean 9-10 till the add date, which I think is ok.
Unless the 23rd is actually the premiere date with a later add date to come.
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tvoss20
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Post by tvoss20 on Feb 13, 2012 13:06:59 GMT -5
Everyone replying to this thread gets me excited every time that there might be a snippet added. Dang it! :( This ^
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