Will The AC Format Still Exist In 20 Years?

[Michael1973]

Another mini "flamewar" has started over on the Radio Info boards, this one about why AC stations refuse to play a lot of current music, instead playing the same tired old songs day in and day out. As usual, it was the die hard music fan (like most of us) vs. the radio profesional who knows from experience.

The radio pro took the stand that I've heard many times -- that AC radio is not about playing new music, but "familiar" music. The target AC audience wants to hear songs they recognize and music they grew up with. He said that most AC programmers wait until a song is a proven hit at another format before adding it. That's all fine and good, but I see that line of thinking leading to huge problems down the road.

The majority of the music on today's AC radio comes from the 70's through the 90's, with just a small precent coming from recent years. The thing to remember is that far more music was hitting the charts during that era than is today, and far less of todays "hits" are AC friendly. So what's going to happen in another 20 years?

By that point 70's and early 80's music will be gone from radio (much like 50's and early 60's music is gone now). People who are in the target AC audience in 2025 will have grown up on Usher, Eminem, Britney Spears, 50 Cent, etc. -- none of whom are AC friendly. Most of the music that performed well on AC during these years will have been completely forgotten by the target audience, so what will be left to play?

What does everyone else think? Will the format still exist in 20 years, and if so what type of music will be played on it?

[tico]

I think it will still exist. After all, not all people like rap and hard rock, or at least an excessive amount of it. However, the format will have to evolve in both sound and the number of years AC can draw from. In 20 years, the upper end of the AC demo will be in their mid-70s. Songs from artists like Elton John and Rod Stewart--mainstays in the current format--may be relegated to oldies and nostalgia stations. It's possible that by then, the 80s may even been largely thrown out. I also see AC having an edgier sound. What you hear on stations like WLTW and WLIT may be the standard norm.

[Hervard]

michael1973 said:

Another mini "flamewar" has started over on the Radio Info boards, this one about why AC stations refuse to play a lot of current music, instead playing the same tired old songs day in and day out

Oh, no! Not again!

[Arson]

michael1973 said:

People who are in the target AC audience in 2025 will have grown up on Usher, Eminem, Britney Spears, 50 Cent, etc. -- none of whom are AC friendly.  Most of the music that performed well on AC during these years will have been completely forgotten by the target audience, so what will be left to play?

On this week's AC chart, the following are all pop crossovers, so they will likely be played:

Rob Thomas Lonely No More
Kelly Clarkson Breakaway
Los Lonely Boys Heaven
Backstreet Boys Incomplete
Maroon 5 She Will Be Loved
Maroon 5 Sunday Morning
Howie Day Collide
Mariah Carey We Belong Together

As with now, AC will likely continue to be receptive to songs by artists whose time has come and gone. By then, some of the singers on the pop chart today may have mellowed a bit.

There are AC listeners now who listened to harder rock in the 1970s and 1980s. They are evidently choosing AC over Jack-type stations.

Overall, though, it looks like the future AC will be Hot AC-ish.

[JCMF3]

gil said:

On this week's AC chart, the following are all pop crossovers, so they will likely be played:

Rob Thomas Lonely No More
Kelly Clarkson Breakaway     
Los Lonely Boys Heaven     
Backstreet Boys  Incomplete 
Maroon 5 She Will Be Loved     
Maroon 5 Sunday Morning
Howie Day Collide
Mariah Carey We Belong Together

You can include Goo Goo Dolls - Give A Little Bit and Ryan Cabrera - True to that list, and also, Jet - Look What You've Done, Green Day - Boulevard of Broken Dreams, and Jesse McCartney - Beautiful Soul (although these were minor hits).

[Michael1973]

The radio professional on the other board indicated to me that the format will likely continue to gravitate away from the "lite" format, and gradually add more big pop hits as the audience changes. In other words, the AC format of the future will play a lot of music that didn't do well on the AC chart, but which the future "target audience" will remember.

[Hervard]

They're sort of already doing that with songs of the 70s and 80s that didn't make the Pop chart. And it seems as if they're gearing up to do the same with today's hits, since I heard "Rich Girl" by Gwen Stefani on WLIT in Chicago, when that song isn't even on the map at AC radio. Next thing we know, the station will play "Switch", a song that I was shocked to see on a countdown this past weekend that's supposed to be Hot AC.

So much for "lite" AC!

[singingsparrow]

Sure it will.

It's long been the official format for dentist offices and one-hour photo labs. ;)

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[allow that]

singingsparrow said:

Sure it will.

It's long been the official format for dentist offices and one-hour photo labs.  ;)

LOL. Exactly. Don't forget about banks!

[Michael1973]

singingsparrow said:

Sure it will.

It's long been the official format for dentist offices and one-hour photo labs.  ;)

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

But what will the dentist's offices be playing when pop music from the 70's and 80's is considered too old to play or the radio anymore, and the majority of 90's and 00's AC singles are long forgotten by the general population?

[Hervard]

You need to remember that it's probably going to be a looooong time before the 70s and 80s are considered too old to play on AC radio. I mean, some songs from the 60s are still part of most AC radio stations' programming. And, actually, I don't remember the 50s EVER being played at AC. So I have a feeling that they'll still be playing songs from the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s for quite some time, along with the 00s, 10s and so forth. Many of the songs from the 70s and 80s that they play were never big AC hits, but more Pop hits that today's AC audience remember when they listened to Top 40 music back in the day. The same will apply to songs from the 90s and today, since they were (or will have been) big hits on the Pop chart. I hate to say it, but they might even play some of the hip-hop songs that are charting today (since much of the music from the 1970s AC stations play is disco, a big part of the music scene from back then that listeners hated just like listeners hate the hip-hop that dominates the Pop airwaves today) This could be part of the reason that Jack stations are replacing oldies stations, because AC is so much like oldies anymore that some people can't differentiate the two (except for hearing current songs, which AC now plays very few of).

Anyway, I just thought I'd point this out. Since songs from the 1960s aren't quite too old to play even today, songs from the 1970s and 1980s may never go out of style.

[[upsilon]™]

singingsparrow said:

Sure it will.

It's long been the official format for dentist offices and one-hour photo labs.  ;)

My orthodontist has a classic rock station on. It even played "Vertigo" once. My dentist doesn't have radio, but instead has a tv on in the L-shaped waiting room. A woman was giving my mom weird, serial-killer stares once, but thank God we never saw her again.

[smack]

Formats change over time. I encourage you to compare for example: Hysteria vs Come on over. Both produced by Mutt. Hysteria was considered hard rock 20 years ago. Come on over was a country album from 5 years ago. Most of Shania's songs have the same or even a faster tempo than Def Leppards. Rock seems to have branched off...you have alternative, classic, heavy metal, etc. What is considered soft music (that AC plays), would have been top 40 or rock music 20 years ago. Country has peaked as far as pop sounding, and I think is already going back towards its more traditional sound. I think top 40 is the format that will be seeing the biggest change in the next few years. I see "new" formats such as latin hip hop being played, and possibly country "hick hop" like cowboy troy having a chance at being played. My 4 cents worth.

gil said:

michael1973 said:

There are AC listeners now who listened to harder rock in the 1970s and 1980s.  They are evidently choosing AC over Jack-type stations.

Overall, though, it looks like the future AC will be Hot AC-ish.

[Michael1973]

ulij20 said:

You need to remember that it's probably going to be a looooong time before the 70s and 80s are considered too old to play on AC radio.

Yeah, maybe I was getting a bit ahead of myself suggesting all of today's popular AC music would be history in 20 years. (Maybe 30!) I guess the point I was originally shooting for was, with the AC format seeing only 5-6 major new songs a year lately, how many songs will be in rotation on AC when the 90's and the 00's are the prominently played eras? If we're only seeing 60-70 major hits per decade, the playlists will be spread a little thin over time, no? I mean, even if they're going to pick non-AC hits from the pop chart to add down the road, what's there to select from -- Usher? 50 Cent? Gwen Stefani?

[johnm1120]

AC is one of the most popular formats in almost every market. I don't see it going away anytime soon.

[mst3k]

Probably anything that's currently being played on Hot AC will be fair game for the AC format twenty years from now. And I don't see the need to focus on just the "major hits", although I guess that's why I'm just a listener and not a programmer.

[Michael1973]

mst3k1 said:

Probably anything that's currently being played on Hot AC will be fair game for the AC format twenty years from now. And I don't see the need to focus on just the "major hits", although I guess that's why I'm just a listener and not a programmer.

Having talked to radio programmers on the other forum, I can tell you they're heavily in favor of playing narrow selections of songs, based on how well the average listener remember them. It's not so much major hits, as it is the songs with the most staying power. For example, "Piano Man" bombed on the charts in 1975 yet remains one of the most popular songs ever. Songs like that remain huge at AC for decades on end.

[Chato]

Here in germany the AC format has gone through big changes in the past 10 years. Back then it was normal that AC playlists included lots of GermanSchlager and Volksmusik , now these styles have completely disappeared from many stations' playlists .
Nowadays most Ac stations mainly play Pop Hits from the past 40 years .
That's what might also happen in the US , maybe in the next couple of years different styles will be more included in AC playlists . Green Day already scored their first AC Top30 hit which seemed quite unlikely just a while ago .

[Marv]

AC radio will never go away anytime soon. It makes WAAAAYYYY too much money, and it's core audience (25-54 women) is the most coveted demographic out there. It's always been a format which has been built around playing FAMILIAR music. In many markets, the format has become a mass-appeal format (depending on how the station is programmed), something that used to apply to CHR/Pop.

Many of the biggest CHR/Pop singles of the eighties are staples at AC radio, and the reason is very simple; the folks who were in high school when those songs were smashes STILL like them twenty years later, and those songs still hold up far better than many folks realize.

Thanks to the overreliance on consultants and research which destroyed the prospects for 'all-eighties' formats, AC stations from coast to coast can play most of the 50 biggest singles of the eighties, and have virtually no chance of losing their audience, or their lofty 25-54 numbers.

Playing current artists such as Sheryl Crow, Avril Lavigne & Matchbox 20 merely shows how the format has evolved from the sixties and sevewnties, and it will undoubtedly continue to do so.

Having ENORMOUS libraries to draw music from is another huge bonus as well.

[Michael1973]

marv said:

Having ENORMOUS libraries to draw music from is another huge bonus as well.

AC radio stations, as a rule, don't have enormous libraries. As the programmer on the other board pointed out, some of the highest rated stations are those with the narrowest playlists. Makes no sense to me, but then again I'm not in the business (or the target audience).

[jmason]

Yes, but it will be more HOT AC like. It will play music that is more up to date, but not stuff that came out a week ago like POP.

[Marv]

AC stations tend to have large libraries because their libraries can consist of music that is at least FORTY years old.

Those stations with high ratings because of their narrow playlist are undoubtedly CHR/Pop and CHR/Rhythmic stations, which play their current FAR more frequently than the adult-based formats out there, including Oldies, Country, Smooth Jazz, AC, Hot AC and the new 'Adult Hits' (Jack-FM) format.

AC radio is not going away as long as there are 25-54 women out there--the so called 'soccer moms' of America.

Given their skyrocketing economic clout, as well as their HUGE influence in the pruchases of such major items as homes and automobiles, they will always have an AC radio station playing familiar music, and a Hot AC station (or Adult Top 40) station playing THEIR kind of hit music, since adults and kids cannot listen to the same radio stations (especially CHR/Pop) that they used to in previous decades.

On top of that, advertisers absolutely LOVE them, given their skyrocketing purchasing power, which will continue to go up as time goes by.

[dawhite76]

One could actually argue that A/C is already dead. A/C was once a format where the charts were interesting ... songs did not linger for years and an artist was able to release a follow-up that would not be eclipsed by the airplay of its predecessor. (e.g. Celine's "I'm Alive" could not muster past #6 since "A New Day Has Come" was being overplayed.) The format once had core artists that could still succeed at A/C even if their singles were floundering at Top 40. (e.g. Olivia Newton-John's singles in 1976 and 1977 all failed to reach the Pop Top 10, but still regularly topped the A/C chart.)

Today, is there really any artist that is a core to the format? Sure, some veteran pop acts like Lionel Richie and Hall & Oates still score an occasional Top 10 A/C hit that is scarcely played at any other format. But, most of the songs on the A/C chart today have been cherry-picked from other formats like Top 40 (Kelly Clarkson, Los Lonely Boys), country (Martina McBride, Keith Urban) or Hot A/C (Rob Thomas, Maroon5). The format cannot possibly evolve if it ignores its core and, worse, clings to the same playlist literally year after year. How sad that songs that are 10+ years old like "Something To Talk About" (1991 -14 years) or "Every Breath You Take" (1983 - 22 years!) are still receiving enough airplay that they would actually chart if they were not recurrent.

Programmers are also neglecting the format’s heritage. How often do you hear songs like “Boogie Oogie Oogie” or “Hot Stuff” on today’s A/C stations? These songs did not even chart A/C! Vintage A/C artists like the Carpenters or Kenny Rogers are ignored today. Yet, A/C will play other similar vintage artists like Barry White or KC that barely made an impact on the A/C chart. And what about more recent artists like Whitney or Mariah? If you listen to today’s A/C radio, you would think that Whitney only recorded one album (“The Bodyguard”) and that Mariah was a one-hit wonder (“Hero”).

Radio is of course to blame … but so are the listeners who accept and listen to such mediocrity. Do you really need to hear “Drift Away” for the gazillionth time? Based on the format’s ratings, the answer seems to be “yes.” A/C radio will begin to fade away the same way that oldies radio is disappearing now.

[Marv]

Artists such as Kenny Rogers and the Carpenters aren't heard on AC radio becuase the format has evolved from where it was then to where it is today. The format has never been known for being early on new music, but has been focused on playing familiar music. Whitney & Mariah still have TONS of songs that you can hear on AC stations nationwide; they are certainly among the fomrat's core artists, along with Phil Collinsw, Celine Dion and lots of others.

'Boogoe Oogie OOgie' and 'Hot Stuff' are not going to be played on an AC station; the former is strictly for weekend seventies shows, or for the few 'Jammin' Olfies' stations out there, while 'Hot Stuff is more likely to be heard on a 'Jack-FM station, or a 'Jammin' Oldies' Station'.

Oldies radio certainly isn't dead; it's core listeners make waaaay too much money to be ignored. The problem with the format today is that most of them haven't freshened their stations by playing more music from the seventies and eighties. There is FAR more 'defensive' radio programming today than ever, and the conglomerates which own the vast majority of stations out there are VERY skittish about adding stations to their cluster in any given market which will NOT hurt the ratings of other stations in the same market.

A country station properly programmed with music from the sventies and eighties can do VERY well these days, and the best example is Cleveland's WMJI, which is #3 in that market after hitting #1 very recently.

Radio continues to be dominated by research, which has hurt and/or destroyed many formats, and will continue to do so until the conglomerates decide that they want listeners to come back to the radio (to raise advertising rates), and slash the amount of commercials, another MAJOR culprit at today's radio.

AC radio is not going anywhere, as long as AC powerhouses such as KOST in Los Angeles and WLTW in New York City continue to make truckloads of money for Clear Channel, and the 25-54 women who drive out nation's economy continue to lsiten to them in droves in market after market.

AC stations today can be programmed in numerous ways, and certainly have much larger libraries than most formats out there.

[Hervard]

marv said:

'Boogoe Oogie OOgie' and 'Hot Stuff' are not going to be played on an AC station; the former is strictly for weekend seventies shows, or for the few 'Jammin' Olfies' stations out there, while 'Hot Stuff is more likely to be heard on a 'Jack-FM station, or a 'Jammin' Oldies' Station'.

I beg to differ. The AC station that I listen to, which is in one of the top three markets plays "Hot Stuff", along with other disco favorites like "Got To Be Real", "Best Of My Love" and "Boogie Oogie Oogie", among others, and that's its regular programming.

[dawhite76]

WLTW - New York, the nation's most successful A/C station, is easily the station most responsible for the demise of the format. They play Donna Summer more often now than Top 40 stations did back in the late '70's. Heck, they even play "Purple Rain"! This was a station that actually edited out the bridge of "Say You, Say Me" in the 1980's since it rocked too much!

When you examine the list of WLTW's most played songs of 2004, three Barry White songs were played more than 400 times each. Subtract the one month they were devoted to a Christmas format and that means they played 30 year old songs more than once a day several times throughout 2004! I hardly consider that the evolution of the format. Instead of playing the Emotions' "Best Of My Love" (which, BTW, never charted A/C) umpteen times a week, aren't there enough other past "familiar" A/C hits or overlooked newer tracks that could be played instead?

As WLTW proves, A/C radio today simply takes from all other formats and culls them together on one station. Why does it work? It appeals to a broader demographic than most other formats. If a soccer Mom is driving her kids all around, it's the one format they can all agree on. Problem is that A/C hardly has any acts it can call its own anymore. When was the last time artists like Celine or Phil consistently reached the Top 10? It's not as if A/C artists are not releasing new product anymore either. For example, Gloria Estefan's last CD did not yield one Top 10 A/C hit. And, there are hardly any other formats that will touch the few A/C artists left. When was the last time you heard Elton or Hall & Oates on a Pop, Rock or R&B station?

Even the new generation of A/C acts are caught in the glacial cycle of today's A/C radio. Take Josh Groban - "You Raise Me Up" spent six weeks at #1 in Billboard. Yet, why did the follow-up, "Remember When It Rained," stall at #15? Simple - radio did not stop playing "Raise." Same with Shania - "It Only Hurts When I'm Breathing" could not gain airplay against her own "Forever And For Always." Even "Party For Two" from her next album probably struggled because "Forever" was still being played. You cannot develop a core artist if you only allow him/her/them one hit every year or two.

[Arson]

dawhite76 said:

Even the new generation of A/C acts are caught in the glacial cycle of today's A/C radio.  Take Josh Groban - "You Raise Me Up" spent six weeks at #1 in Billboard.  Yet, why did the follow-up, "Remember When It Rained," stall at #15?  Simple - radio did not stop playing "Raise."  Same with Shania - "It Only Hurts When I'm Breathing" could not gain airplay against her own "Forever And For Always."  Even "Party For Two" from her next album probably struggled because "Forever" was still being played.  You cannot develop a core artist if you only allow him/her/them one hit every year or two.

You make a good point. You would think the soccer moms would actually like to hear new music from a favorite artist, say, Celine Dion (whose last 2 songs flopped) even if it's an unfamiliar song. It IS someone they like, isn't it? They would seriously rather hear "Heaven" or "Breakaway" or "My Heart Will Go On" one more time? It makes for such a boring listen.

Then, there's the practice of dropping recent AC songs once they have reached their overplay max, and then NEVER re-adding them. I can't remember the last time I heard Don Henley's "Taking You Home" even though it was a very big hit a few years ago.

[Michael1973]

You guys are hitting upon the very reasons I started this thread. This practice of AC radio continuing to focus heavily on what was big 20-30 years ago, without regularly adding a lot of new music, is only going to work for so long. Eventually, people who like Barry White, Donna Summer, The Police, etc. are going to shift out of the target demographic. And the people who shift *into* the target audience will have very few "AC friendly" hits that they're familiar with -- because much of what *they* grew up will with be hip-hop, teen pop, etc.

[Marv]

I have no idea why WLTW was/is playing songs such as 'Hot Stuff' & 'Bogie Oogie Oogie'; that really makes no sense. Perhaps PD Jim Ryan feels he can play a much wider variety of music than your typical AC station for at least three reasons.

1)--NYC has no country station, so he doesn't have to worry about losing his core audience (25-54 women) to that format.

2)--Assuming he's still there, Scott Shannon is programming WPLJ to a much narrower audience than most Hot AC's out there.

3)---With a Smooth Jazz station (New York Chill, aka CD 101.9) also targeted at adults, he (Ryan) has much less competition for NYC's adult listeners, especially now that CBS-FM is gone.

But the bottom line remains the fact that MOST formats out there have been strangled by micromanagement and research, and that has sucked creativity out of radio at numerous formats, not just AC.

It can be said that AC doesn't have any core artists and/or exclusive artists anymore, since the format has started playing a much wider range of music lately, including the likes of Avril Lavigne & Matchbox 20.

; I would still think that the Eagles, Phil Collins, Celine Dion, Roxette, Don Henley, Faith Hill & Shania Twain will continue to have success at AC radio for many years to come.

Michael 1973 makes a GREAT point that AC does play LOTS of music from the seventies and eighties, and there are a handful of reasons for that.

1)--The eighties was a SENSATIONAL decade for the CHR/Pop format (and so were the seventies, and the junior high and high schoolers from that time are now in their mid-thirties and up, and STILL love the music from that period.

Since eight of the top ten singles of the eighties are STILL staples at AC radio, those songs still have MUCH more appealing and staying power than most of the music you hear at top 40 today.

Furthermore, those adults in their thirties and forties have ENORMOUS spending power to drive our economy, but the fact remains that they STILL like those songs, primarily because of the numerous EXCEPTIONAL songwriters who were staples at CHR/Pop during the seventies and eighties.

AC and Hot AC stations have MUCH more leeway in playing songs which are anywhere from 5-30+ years old than most other formats as well.

As other have said, the addiction which Clear Channel and everybody else have to consultants and research is snuffing creativity and originality right out of radio, and not just at AC.

The point about no longer hearing Don Henley's mesmerizing 'Taking You Home' anymore is disgusting to say the least; he is certainly among the MOST respected artists out there to both baby-boomers and soccer moms.

AC radio COULD be sounding MUCH better than it is, and so could many other formats, inlcuding Oldies & Hot AC.

While the predominantly 12-24 year olds out there who listen to CHR/Pop and CHR/Rhythmic stations today will eventually shift out of those formats, very little of the music which CHR/Pop has been playing the past four years figures to be showing up on AC radio anytime soon.

[Marv]

Longtime Tampa Bay morning legend Mason Dixon made a great point in newest issue of R&R that Oldies stations will have to evolve and play much newer music if they expect to remain in existence.

Like everybody else, he undoubtedly noticed that KCBS-FM (93.1 Jack-FM) soared to #1 in adults 25-54 after exactly FOUR months of being on the air, and was unquestionably responsible for oldies KRTH losing 20% of it's audience in a single book.

AC stations can certainly play music from the sixities that are still being played at Oldies and Classic Rock stations because they have LOTS of CHR/Pop's biggest singles from the eighties and nineties in their hefty libraries which are STILL great songs with endurance.

For that reason, and many others, AC radio isn't going anywhere soon, as long as stations such as KOST and WLTW continue to make the truckloads of money for Clear Channel that they do, and continue their stranglehold on the 25-54 adults and 25-54 women demographics.