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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2012 15:32:15 GMT -5
TREY BIEN
Atlantic’s Trey Songz to Debut at #1, DJ Khaled Also on Tap
August 22, 2012
The August doldrums are officially here, based on one-day sales figures from our sweat-soaked legion of retail reporters across the country and on your smart phone.
Trey Songz’ fifth Atlantic album, Chapter V, will easily take the #1 spot on next week's chart as the only title that will hit six figures, with a first-week total that should reach 125-130k. His last album, 2010’s Passion, Pain & Pleasure, debuted with 240k in sales on the way to a total of 842k to date.
Cash Money/Republic rapper DJ Khaled’s Kiss the Ring, the follow-up to last year’s We the Best Forever, is on target for 35-40k as the second-highest debut of the week.
Republic singer/songwriter Adam Young aka Owl City’s third album, The Midsummer Station, which includes “Good Time,” his hit single with Carly Rae Jepsen, is up next with a target of 25-30k
Reunion/Provident contemporary Christian band Tenth Avenue North’s The Struggle also looks in the 25-30k range.
Jason Aldean’s Broken Bow labelmate Dustin Lynch’s self-titled debut should do between 20-25k.
Album sales were up 6% vs. last week, down 2% vs. same week last year and down 4% year to date.
Track sales were up 3% vs. last week, up 7% vs. same week last year and up 6% year to date.
TEA (Track Equivalent Album) sales were up 5% vs. last week, up 1% vs. same week last year and down 1% year to date.
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ZAYN
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Post by ZAYN on Aug 22, 2012 15:55:30 GMT -5
I love that their crediting owl shitty with "Good Time" even tho we all know it wouldn't do shit without CRJ.
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Agent Yoncé
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Post by Agent Yoncé on Aug 22, 2012 15:55:32 GMT -5
Smh.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Aug 22, 2012 16:01:23 GMT -5
Ouch for Trey Songz.
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Minor Scratch
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Post by Minor Scratch on Aug 22, 2012 16:02:07 GMT -5
Sucks for Trey Songz.
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jgizzle89
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Post by jgizzle89 on Aug 22, 2012 16:09:57 GMT -5
Usher, Chris Brown, Trey Songz, and Frank Ocean all debuted right around 130k. I'd say it's standard now.
Although, Trey and Chris both just put out incredibly boring/bad albums. Usher's was innovative - perhaps too much for his base- and actually good.
Frank's numbers (and album), on the other hand, are great for him.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2012 16:10:20 GMT -5
I'm not really sure why anyone's surprised by Trey's numbers, unless they're just comparing them to his previous album's debut week. His numbers are right in line with what I've been predicting for months. He led his last album off with a much bigger hit than he's had from this album thus far. He also pulled the same thing Chris Brown pulled by releasing the album several months after the lead single was released (and similarly, having the follow-up singles that preceded the album not perform as well at Urban radio). This is a bit more subjective, but a common criticism of his latest album is that he's releasing more of the same and that his past few albums are all basically interchangeable. It's not helping that his two current singles basically reinforce that without even hearing the rest of the album. It might give him a few more decent sized Urban hits, but it's not going to sell albums if people think they're getting an uninspired product.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2012 16:44:15 GMT -5
Usher was slaying urban radio and also had a top 10 pop single, and did 125-130k...supposedly b/c of the confusion or disdain over his pop singles lately but I'm still dubious as to how much an affect that has had on people. Chris on the other hand has been doing worse this time around, with no top 10 hit at urban so far (and the one pop single he did have only peaked just inside the top 20 on CHR). 125-130k. Now we have Trey who is treading water artistically and has no pop exposure, but all the same has been doing well enough with on urban radio, and he's doing 125-130k.
The tight consistency in those sales is too much for me to go looking for specific reasons each one has dropped in sales, and especially when each era has different flaws to contend with. I think it's just open season on these r&b niccas. And as an r&b fan, that makes me sad.
I generally wouldn't throw in Frank Ocean as a comparison for a few reasons, the biggest one being that he's new. His 131k is GREAT for a debut opening and minimal airplay. Not so much for three guys who are on their fifth or higher album and are supposed to be the three biggest and most established male stars in contemporary r&b right now.
The new music release prediction was off but that doesn't surprise me b/c they thought Usher and Chris would open with bigger numbers too. It's pretty clear that the labels are definitely missing something when it comes to getting these r&b releases right...now if we could just figure out what that something is.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2012 17:46:19 GMT -5
I love that their crediting owl s**tty with "Good Time" even tho we all know it wouldn't do s**t without CRJ. It's still HIS song.
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Post by ListenToItTwice on Aug 22, 2012 17:53:00 GMT -5
^ yeah there's nothing wrong or shady about how HDD worded that... The song is on the album, and it's "his" hit. It's also "her" hit, but calling it "his" isn't incorrect.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Aug 22, 2012 20:34:48 GMT -5
I love that their crediting owl s**tty with "Good Time" even tho we all know it wouldn't do s**t without CRJ. With that logic we can say the same thing about most pop songs. They get credited to the divas who sing them but we all know they wouldn't be as good as they were without the producers and writers behind them.
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musicjunky318
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Post by musicjunky318 on Aug 22, 2012 20:43:29 GMT -5
At least he has a #1 debut. First #1 right?
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Wavey✨️
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Post by Wavey✨️ on Aug 22, 2012 20:52:30 GMT -5
Yup first number #1. This is looking like he'll hit Gold.
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d.t.m
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Post by d.t.m on Aug 22, 2012 22:56:15 GMT -5
OK numbers for Trey. I remember he barely missed #1 last time.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2012 8:31:44 GMT -5
The tight consistency in those sales is too much for me to go looking for specific reasons each one has dropped in sales, and especially when each era has different flaws to contend with. I think it's just open season on these r&b niccas. And as an r&b fan, that makes me sad. With the exception of Usher whose album I think is fairly good (although I'm still not enjoying it as much as I enjoyed his past few), I think the other two are going through the motions and just put out completely uninspired albums because it was time to put out a new album and rake in profit again. So I can't say it makes me sad or that I think it's undeserved. When an R&B artist like Frank Ocean puts out a real quality product, and people know they are going to get their money's worth, they go out and buy it. 131k was incredible for him considering he didn't even have a hit at Urban radio, and the album is still selling well without a significant radio presence. There is the issue that pop radio is no longer playing R&B music (and Urban radio is playing less of it) and that a lot of label's urban divisions are being absorbed, but mainstream R&B is also incredibly stale right now.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Aug 23, 2012 8:38:54 GMT -5
Owl City's song wouldn't do s*it without Carly Rae Jepsen? I must have missed her appearance on "Fireflies," then, if the act's so dependent on her.
Granted, that was Owl City's only big hit from that album, but, still- to say the track would do nothing without CRJ is a tad presumptuous. The sound of that track is in right now, and it could be anyone accompanying OC.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2012 8:44:25 GMT -5
Owl City released several complete bombs after "Fireflies," which went to #1 3 years ago already. They released 4 or 5 singles in that time period, and they all missed the Hot 100 entirely. I don't think it's too presumptuous to suggest that Carly Rae's presence on their new single is part of the reason the song caught on as quickly as it did. Is she the only reason the song is a hit? No. But I highly doubt the song would have caught on as quickly as it did without her, because no one has really paid attention to them since 2009.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Aug 23, 2012 8:46:26 GMT -5
Oh, I agree that CRJ's presence doesn't hurt, because of the massive success of "Call Me Maybe." But we have yet to know whether she's an act who's going to stick around for a while, or whether she's a one-/two-hit wonder. When her album's released, we'll have a better idea.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2012 8:47:13 GMT -5
Oh, I agree that CRJ's presence doesn't hurt, because of the massive success of 'Call Me Maybe." But we have yet to know whether she's an act who's going to stick around for a while, or whether she's a one-/two-hit wonder. When her album's released, we'll have a better idea. That really has nothing to do with the hype behind her right now, which has helped to fuel "Good Time".
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Aug 23, 2012 8:48:32 GMT -5
Agreed, just thinking beyond the current moment. :) I'm curious to see how her follow-up solo singles perform.
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Aug 23, 2012 12:01:30 GMT -5
HITS' future predictions:
ARE YOU READY FOR SOME ACTION? As with the NFL, it won’t be long until the labels shake off the dog days of summer and put their starting teams back in the game. The biz is already buzzing about the loaded release slates for next month’s two straight Super Tuesdays—Sept. 18 and 25. The season kicks off with new albums from the likes of Pink, Carly Rae Jepsen, Wiz Khalifa, Ne-Yo, The Killers, Dwight Yoakam and the 25th anniversary reissue of Michael Jackson’s Bad. The momentum actually increases the following Tuesday, with a slate topped by Mumford & Sons. Green Day and No Doubt, along with Diana Krall, Barbra Stresiand, India.Arie and Lupe Fiasco. Here are a couple of competitions the oddsmakers are currently handicapping: With a projected 400-450k first week, will Mumford’s Babel (Glassnote, 9/25) become the biggest debut of the year? If so, the banjo plunkers will hold the title only until Oct. 22, when Big Machine unleashes Taylor Swift’s Red. Which labels will wind up as the big winners—and which labels need some winners to turn their years around? You’ll wanna be on the 50-yard line for this one. (8/23a)
BETWEEN ROCK & A HARD PLACE: Green Day (Reprise) and No Doubt (Interscope) are expected to bow with 125-150k each, with their lead singles are doing just OK thus far in terms of sales and Top 40 airplay—195k for No Doubt's "Settle Down" and just 50k for Green Day's "Oh Love." Although the sales ceiling tends to be lower for albums from acts like these two and Linkin Park (whose latest album Living Things has sold 415k, while single "Burn It Down" is at 680k), the bigger bands make up for their limitations at retail via massive tour revenues. So notes HITS industry insider I.B. Bad in his latest, singles-focused column, posting tomorrow morning. (8/23a)
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Agent Yoncé
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Post by Agent Yoncé on Aug 23, 2012 12:14:14 GMT -5
Not mad about No Doubt's predictions. I just need them to have some legs to reach platinum.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Aug 23, 2012 18:04:13 GMT -5
Adele #10....
HITS:
Your Weakend Chart Preview:
Trey Songz easily gets the #1 spot on next week's chart as it's the only title that will break six figures. Nothing else even comes close. For now, it looks like Universal will score six slots in the Top 10. Here's how it looks headed into the weekend:
*Trey Songz (Atlantic) 125-135k Now 43 (Capitol/EMI) 45-50k 2 Chainz (Def Jam/IDJ) 45-50k *DJ Khaled (Republic) 40-45k Maroon 5 (A&M/Octone) 35-40k Justin Bieber (Island/IDJ) 30-35k Rick Ross (Def Jam/IDJ) 27-30k *Tenth Avenue North (Provident) 27-30k *Owl City (Republic) 25-28k Adele (XL/Columbia) 23-26k One Direction (Syco/Columbia) 23-26k *Dustin Lynch (Broken Bow) 22-25k fun. (Fueled By Ramen) 20-23k Zac Brown Band (Atlantic) 17-20k Kidz Bop Kids (Razor & Tie) 17-20k
*Debuts (8/23p)
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Aug 23, 2012 18:21:59 GMT -5
Here are a couple of competitions the oddsmakers are currently handicapping: With a projected 400-450k first week, will Mumford’s Babel (Glassnote, 9/25) become the biggest debut of the year?Green Day (Reprise) and No Doubt (Interscope) are expected to bow with 125-150k each Ooo, nice to see I wasn't too far off: I think No Doubt will open with ~120-150k, while Green Day will open with ~180k. Of course, it depends how well their current singles do, but both seem to be doing well on their repsective formats. Mumford & Sons I think could open up with ~300k. Quite surprised, but also not surprised, at how big Mumford & Sons might open with!
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Post by chocolatethunder on Aug 23, 2012 18:28:28 GMT -5
Not surprised with Trey figured at around 150K or so, agree with Jazzy in that nothing about his songs right now scream buy my album. I think we all agree he is talented and people are just waiting for him to take his game up a step not to just maintain.
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Agent Yoncé
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Post by Agent Yoncé on Aug 23, 2012 20:08:32 GMT -5
Your Weakend Chart Preview
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2012 22:29:37 GMT -5
Your Weakend Chart Preview That has been their running joke for years
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Post by Kurt on Aug 23, 2012 22:40:23 GMT -5
because no one has really paid attention to them since 2009. Which is evident considering how often everyone thinks Owl City is a group consisting of more than one person, haha!
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Post by neverduplicated on Aug 24, 2012 2:12:31 GMT -5
Hits have changed their 125-150k prediction for No Doubt to 175k. That would be a much better total for them. They've also revealed a few more predictions:
"DOUBLE-DIP SUPER TUESDAY UPDATE: Here are the latest label forecasts on some of the Sept. 18 and Sept. 25 releases (see 8/23 item below): G.O.O.D. Music compilation 200k, Pink 200k, The Killers 125k, Carly Rae Jepsen 100k, No Doubt 175k and Michael Jackson 150k. In other news, Diana Krall and the Barbra Streisand CD move to Oct. 2 (Columbia is releasing the LP on Sept. 25 to make it eligible for Grammy consideration), while Ne-Yo moves to Nov. 6. Expect some of the forecasts to change as we get closer to release. You can also expect some label estimates to be over-projected and/or very bullish, which could lead to some major disappointments for certain key artists and top label execs, but par for the course heading into Q4. (8/24a)"
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Aug 24, 2012 7:18:00 GMT -5
They're REALLY confident with Carly Rae Jepsen too. Unless she released a smash third single out of the blue, I don't see 100K for her JUST yet.
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