3 Doors Down/matchbox twenty: Next Hot AC #1 War?

[singingsparrow]

Looks like we've got some large competing singles here on Hot AC.

matchbox twenty's "Bright Lights" has taken off with a +200 bullet despite "Unwell" still at #2 on the chart, and 3 Doors Down have a bullet over +350 with "Here Without You" as their previous smash "When I'm Gone" prepares to go recurrent next week.

Can these two singles be the ones to determine the next Hot AC #1 hit? Of course don't forget John Mayer, despite his bullet diminishing to a modest +84

Here are my thoughts on these two singles:

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matchbox twenty: Bright Lights:

Plus: They are THE Hot AC artist. Their combined weeks at #1 with their four Hot AC #1 smashes (3 A.M, Bent, If You're Gone, Unwell) are more than any other artists. They have many loyal fans on Hot AC that will request anything they release.

Minus: "Unwell" still has been played nearly 3500 spins since last week on Hot AC, thus if "Bright Lights" is going to rise to #1, matchbox twenty must depend on this single to start losing -200+ spins a week for a few weeks at least to start getting "Bright Lights" in full gear.

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3 Doors Down: Here Without You

Plus: Their most poppiest single to date, yet also maintaining an appeal for older audiences. They don't have to worry about recurrentitis issues with "When I'm Gone"

Minus: 3 Doors Down seem to be at a crossroad, deciding the direction they want to go as a band, therefore certain audiences who appreciate their more rockier side may not get into this effort. Their Alternative and Active Rock future is uncertain and the slightest decision can mean a lot to this singles performance as well.

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Clearly, 3 Doors Down has the advantage I believe, and will outpace "Bright Lights" by the end of this week, nevertheless with "Here Without You" already above 7000 spins in a week on CHR/Pop, and "Bright Lights" steadily gaining from #26, "Here Without You" may then slow down and allow "Bright Lights" access to #1 in a longer run.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[allow that]

I really don't think 3DD has what it takes to get to #1. Between the 2 of them, MB20 has it.

But I think you're forgetting 2 very important candidates. I'd be shocked if at least one of Sarah or Sheryl don't make it to #1.

[singingsparrow]

Jersey said:

I really don't think 3DD has what it takes to get to #1. Between the 2 of them, MB20 has it.

But I think you're forgetting 2 very important candidates. I'd be shocked if at least one of Sarah or Sheryl don't make it to #1.

I too believe that one of these two artists (most likely Sheryl Crow) have a good chance to eventually reach #1.

However, both artists are a good 800+ spins behind 3 Doors Down and matchbox twenty's latest singles currently, and therefore it would be difficult to qualify Sarah and Sheryl as candidates for the NEXT Hot AC #1.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[allow that]

SingingSparrow said:

However, both artists are a good 800+ spins behind 3 Doors Down and matchbox twenty's latest singles currently, and therefore it would be difficult to qualify Sarah and Sheryl as candidates for the NEXT Hot AC #1.

Good point. Also worth mentioning, Live is at #4 with a bullet that really picked up in the past few days.

[Rumors]

Unfortunately, the new Cheryl and Sarah singles are very weak. I am very disappointed particularly in the Sarah single.

I think 3DD will hit number 1 and stay there awhile. It is a good song and is very radio-friendly. These guys have their formula down. All their radio songs have the same chord structure, rhythm, etc. Hey, its working for many bands now (ie Nickleback) so why rock the boat.

[j]

I think 3 Doors Down will be the next #1. Santana still has a bullet and could be there for a few months, enough time to let 3DD ascend the charts.

I think after that Sheryl Crow might take #1. Sarah McLachlan may have to settle for #2.

[singingsparrow]

Well look at the race heating up.

Although "Here Without You" has taken the lead since the last reply to this topic, 3 Doors Down is showing signs of wear on CHR/Pop and this may slow down the overall Hot AC performance of "Here Without You" due to a rather late release on Hot AC.

Live is undoubtedly out of the picture, and Dido has become a runner with "White Flag" If her CHR/Pop and AC performance can continue to gather momentum, she may also have a shot.

John Mayer appears to be out of the picture for #1, but sometimes suprises happen. With the loss of bullet on CHR/Pop and Triple A, I do think "Bigger Than My Body" will experience its pinnacle week within the next few weeks.

Right now, it seems to me that "Bright Lights" will likely be the next #1. It has a steady growth on all formats right now and if "Unwell" couldn't stop it, nothing can apparently.

What are your thoughts?

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[Ragin]

Both HWAY and Bright Lights are heavyweights on HOTAC in my opinion. I think Bright Lights gets the nod as Matchbox Twenty are the darlings of the format right now.

[Miguelín]

I think Matchbox 20 will suffer the higher status of "Unwell" soon, so "Bright lights" won't have more than 3300 - 3400 spins, while 3 doors down has no song on the top 15, so I think "Here without you" it's more likely to be the next #1 (and I like it a lot!)

[singingsparrow]

Miguel said:

I think Matchbox 20 will suffer the higher status of "Unwell" soon, so "Bright lights" won't have more than 3300 - 3400 spins, while 3 doors down has no song on the top 15, so I think "Here without you" it's more likely to be the next #1 (and I like it a lot!)

That is certainly possible, although "Unwell" is finally leveling off at a faster pace and I believe "Bright Lights" can come close to the 4000 spin mark in a week by late December to the beginning of 2004.

matchbox twenty is THE Hot AC artist currently and I've noticed a number of stations dropping "Unwell" by 30 or more spins and increasing "Bright Lights" by that number. Hot AC stations are apparently "trading" the spins from Unwell to Bright Lights and that is what's going to make "Bright Lights" not become "Mad Season II".

Though recurrentitis will be a small issue for the total potential performance of "Bright Lights", 3 Doors Down I think have trials of their own: signs of wear. They are about to lose their bullet on CHR/Pop and its growth potential on Hot AC is going to slow because of that. No doubt it can at least break 3500 spins in a week, but I predict they'll be leapfroged by matchbox twenty within the next few weeks. Not to mention five stations still aren't playing "Here Without You", while only one isn't playing "Bright Lights". If 3 Doors Down will have any hope in earning their first #1 on Hot AC, it's critical they earn exposure to these five stations.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[allow that]

3DD and MB20 are already at #'s 2 and 3, but Santana has almost a 1,000 spin lead over both of them. So basically, anything can happen between now and when Santana falls down to their levels. Making things even more interesting is a darkhorse candidate sneaking in. Dido's "White Flag" jumps 8-4* on the latest Mediabase update, is currently the greatest gainer in the Top 10, and appears as though it can jump "Bright Lights" for #3 quite possibly even before the final update on Sunday.

[EvanJ]

So what band has the most Number 1s on CHR-Pop without any Number 1s on Hot Adult Contemporary?

[crazyfun1]

This is so crazy. According to Radio and Records. MB20 has 2 back-to-back hits on Hot AC now. For this week, Unwell sits at #4 with 3051 spins, and Bright Lights lands at #5 with 3034 spins. Only 17 away from each other! WOW!!

[jond7699]

I am going to predict "Here Without You". Mainly because "Unwell" is still getting so much airplay. But I also believe that "Fallen" could reach the top. I just don't think it will be the next #1

[j]

jond7699 said:

But I also believe that "Fallen" could reach the top. I just don't think it will be the next #1

Fallen's bullet has shrunk like balls in an unheated swimming pool in winter. Hopefully it'll pick up soon.

[thisbeautifulmess]

I will be interested in seeing how high No Doubt gets. I would expect to see them in the top 5 at some point.

[singingsparrow]

*********Update*******

It seems "Bright Lights" has closed in a bit on "Here Without You" in the race to the next #1.

"Bright Lights" has just passed the 3400-spin barrier, while "Here Without You" is above the 3500-spin barrier. However, matchbox twenty have cut their deficit behind 3 Doors Down nearly in half since a week ago.

#2: 3 Doors Down: Here Without You (+209)
#3: matchbox twenty: Bright Lights (+242)

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[crazyfun1]

GO MY MATCHBOYS

[allow that]

Hopefully matchbox 20 can overtake the completely trite 3DD song.

[Mega248]

Jersey said:

Hopefully matchbox 20 can overtake the completely trite 3DD song.

[Matt4319]

Talk about a stagnant chart - No Doubt was the greatest gainer on the final update last night, something like +450, and didn't even move up a spot.