Billboard Hot 100: 02/02/13

[cesarams]

The last 5 threads:

01/26/13, 01/19/13, 01/12/13, 01/05/13, 12/29/12

THURSDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. BRUNO MARS – Locked Out Of Heaven: 207.938 (+ 0.150)
2. LUMINEERS – Ho Hey: 164.103 (+ 0.424)
3. RIHANNA – Diamonds: 158.746 (- 4.356)
4. TAYLOR SWIFT – I Knew You Were Trouble: 137.354 (+ 3.443)
5. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 125.889 (- 2.080)
6. JUSTIN BIEBER – Beauty And A Beat f/N. Minaj: 125.016 (+ 0.483) ▲
7. FLO RIDA – I Cry: 124.746 (- 2.358) ▼
8. PINK – Try: 109.210 (+ 1.128)
9. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Home: 105.318 (- 1.221)
10. SWEDISH HOUSE MAFIA – Don't You Worry Child: 92.656 (+ 2.518) ▲
11. ED SHEERAN – The A Team: 91.533 (- 0.377) ▼
12. ALICIA KEYS – Girl On Fire: 89.325 (+ 0.260)
13. FUN. – Some Nights: 87.288 (- 0.694)
14. NE-YO – Let Me Love You: 85.939 (- 1.552)
15. KE$HA – Die Young: 79.869 (- 1.342)
16. WILL.I.AM & BRITNEY SPEARS – Scream And Shout: 75.808 (+ 2.062)
17. MIGUEL – Adorn: 72.521 (- 0.275)
18. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Thrift Shop f/Wanz: 68.292 (+ 2.488)
19. KELLY CLARKSON – Catch My Breath: 65.790 (+ 0.918) ▲
20. PITBULL – Don't Stop The Party: 65.688 (- 0.005) ▼

OTHERS:

RANDY HOUSER – How Country Feels: 64.167 (+ 0.113)
IMAGINE DRAGONS – It's Time: 64.073 (+ 0.807)
MAROON 5 – Daylight: 60.261 (+ 2.176)
CALVIN HARRIS – Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 58.529 (- 0.014)
JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Suit & Tie f/JAY Z: 58.463 (+ 9.543)
KE$HA – C'mon: 50.581 (+ 0.498)
MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 47.340 (+ 0.287)
OF MONSTERS AND MEN – Little Talks: 42.402 (+ 0.647)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Two Black Cadillacs: 41.159 (+ 0.253)
ONE DIRECTION – Little Things: 33.343 (- 0.189)
RIHANNA – Pour It Up: 24.976 (+ 0.764)
MUSE – Madness: 23.846 (+ 0.121)
BLAKE SHELTON – Sure Be Cool If You Did: 21.539 (+ 1.196)
FUN. – Carry On: 16.210 (+ 0.621)
ALICIA KEYS – Brand New Me: 11.011
C. AGUILERA & B. SHELTON – Just A Fool: 5.730 (- 0.121)
BON JOVI – Because We Can: 4.400 (+ 0.499)
DESTINY’S CHILD – Nuclear: 0.953
RIHANNA – Stay f/Mikky Ekko: 0.494
SATURDAYS – What About Us: 0.012

[nivekwriter1]

I make this prediction with daily airplay,
streaming and download data.
I update this prediction every day and
at the end of the week I have my full prediction.

Hot 100 predictions (so far)

# - artist - song - total points through the week -
how much points is this day's rise bigger or smaller than yesterday's rise?

1. BRUNO MARS - Locked Out Of Heaven: 274.960 (- 0.460)
2. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE - Suit & Tie f/Jay-Z: 251.649 (+ 4.583)
3. TAYLOR SWIFT - I Knew You Were Trouble: 249.222 (+ 8.388)
4. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS - Thrift Shop f/Wanz: 245.007 (+ 4.837)
5. THE LUMINEERS - Ho Hey: 238.916 (+ 0.682)
6. RIHANNA - Diamonds: 189.743 (- 7.777)
7. JUSTIN BIEBER - Beauty And A Beat f/Nicki Minaj: 176.518 (+ 2.286)
8. WILL.I.AM. - Scream & Shout f/Britney Spears: 171.932 (+ 1.742)
9. PHILLIP PHILLIPS - Home: 163.979 (+ 0.499)
10. FLO RIDA - I Cry: 159.455 (- 1.711)
11. SWEDISH HOUSE MAFIA - Don't You Worry Child f/John Martin: 157.450 (+ 1.488)
12. MAROON 5 - One More Night: 150.081 (- 2.317)
13. P!NK - Try: 148.262 (+ 0.838)
14. ALICIA KEYS - Girl On Fire f/Nicki Minaj: 132.652 (+ 1.544)
15. ED SHEERAN - The A Team: 117.252 (- 1.554)
16. PITBULL - Don't Stop The Party f/TJR: 116.711 (+ 0.909)
17. FUN. - Some Nights: 116.708 (- 1.852)
18. CALVIN HARRIS - Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 105.119 (- 0.895)
19. MAROON 5 - Daylight: 103.532 (+ 1.588)
20. KE$HA - Die Young: 103.526 (- 2.686)

Other noticeable songs outside the top 20:

22. KELLY CLARKSON - Catch My Breath: 100.995 (+ 0.763)
24. A$AP ROCKY - F**kin Problems f/Drake, 2 Chainz & Kendrick Lamar: 87.961 (+ 1.123)
25. THE BAND PERRY - Better Dig Two: 85.862 (+ 0.160)
28. KE$HA - C'Mon: 79.937 (+ 2.253)
30. OF MONSTERS AND MEN - Little Talks: 72.848 (+ 0.036)
57. BLAKE SHELTON - Sure Be Cool If You Did: 57.894 (- 0.398)
71. IMAGINE DRAGONS - Radioactive: 38.173 (- 1.157)

112. ONE DIRECTION - Kiss You: 13.124 (- 2.850)

[cesarams]

FRIDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. BRUNO MARS – Locked Out Of Heaven: 206.621 (- 1.317)
2. LUMINEERS – Ho Hey: 164.537 (+ 0.434)
3. RIHANNA – Diamonds: 153.525 (- 5.221)
4. TAYLOR SWIFT – I Knew You Were Trouble: 141.827 (+ 4.473)
5. JUSTIN BIEBER – Beauty And A Beat f/N. Minaj: 126.010 (+ 0.994) ▲
6. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 124.070 (- 1.819) ▼
7. FLO RIDA – I Cry: 122.697 (- 2.049)
8. PINK – Try: 110.568 (+ 1.358)
9. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Home: 104.561 (- 0.757)
10. SWEDISH HOUSE MAFIA – Don't You Worry Child: 94.104 (+ 1.448)
11. ED SHEERAN – The A Team: 90.993 (- 0.540)
12. ALICIA KEYS – Girl On Fire: 89.542 (+ 0.217)
13. FUN. – Some Nights: 86.148 (- 1.140)
14. NE-YO – Let Me Love You: 84.268 (- 1.671)
15. KE$HA – Die Young: 78.900 (- 0.969)
16. WILL.I.AM & BRITNEY SPEARS – Scream And Shout: 77.405 (+ 1.597)
17. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Thrift Shop f/Wanz: 71.057 (+ 2.765) ▲
18. MIGUEL – Adorn: 70.380 (- 2.141) ▼
19. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Suit & Tie f/JAY Z: 68.812 (+ 10.349) ▲
20. KELLY CLARKSON – Catch My Breath: 67.063 (+ 1.273) ▼

OTHERS:

PITBULL – Don't Stop The Party: 65.638 (- 0.050)
IMAGINE DRAGONS – It's Time: 64.690 (+ 0.617)
RANDY HOUSER – How Country Feels: 64.450 (+ 0.283)
MAROON 5 – Daylight: 61.329 (+ 1.068)
CALVIN HARRIS – Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 58.910 (+ 0.381)
KE$HA – C'mon: 51.197 (+ 0.616)
MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 47.462 (+ 0.122)
OF MONSTERS AND MEN – Little Talks: 43.044 (+ 0.642)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Two Black Cadillacs: 41.483 (+ 0.324)
ONE DIRECTION – Little Things: 33.188 (- 0.155)
RIHANNA – Pour It Up: 26.002 (+ 1.026)
MUSE – Madness: 24.029 (+ 0.183)
BLAKE SHELTON – Sure Be Cool If You Did: 22.755 (+ 1.216)
FUN. – Carry On: 16.646 (+ 0.436)
C. AGUILERA & B. SHELTON – Just A Fool: 5.513 (- 0.217)
BON JOVI – Because We Can: 4.690 (+ 0.290)

[dlostfan]

Pretty big radio updates for Taylor Swift! And Bruno has started going down..... Taylor Swift could be ahead of Bruno in points this week but it is too late for #1 now.

It still isn't available to streaming services, right?

[Agent Yoncé]

JT already cracked the Top 20? Damn.

[cause_for_celebration]

Does anyone know the answer to this question? I know that there is an all-encompassing Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs chart, ranking the most popular "R&B/Hip-Hop" songs based on overall airplay, sales and streaming. What I don't understand is why some songs from "Rap Songs" are not ranked in the overall "R&B/HH Songs" chart (like Flo Rida's "I Cry," PSY's "Gangnam Style," and Pitbull's "Don't Stop the Party.") Two of these tracks also are charting on the Rhythmic chart, which I thought would make them eligible for the chart. Doesn't make sense to me! Thanks!

[Verisimilitude]

Billboard is acknowledging the fact that these artists are rappers, but don't consider their dance-rap songs "Hip Hop". Those tracks can still chart on the R&B / Hip Hop airplay chart if they garner enough airplay.

[renfield75]

Funny then that Rihanna's dance-pop would be considered R&B, or that Macklemore & Ryan Lewis' novelty would be considered rap (when it's charting at Alternative but not on R&B/Hip Hop airplay). The same problem arises at country with Mumford & Sons getting more country spins than Taylor Swift's WANEGBT but not being allowed to chart on Hot Country Songs. Billboard's opened up an interesting can of worms by making themselves the deciding factor on genre designations over radio PDs.

[cesarams]

SATURDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. BRUNO MARS – Locked Out Of Heaven: 206.815 (+ 0.194)
2. LUMINEERS – Ho Hey: 165.100 (+ 0.563)
3. RIHANNA – Diamonds: 148.670 (- 1.855)
4. TAYLOR SWIFT – I Knew You Were Trouble: 145.862 (+ 4.035)
5. JUSTIN BIEBER – Beauty And A Beat f/N. Minaj: 126.535 (+ 0.525)
6. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 122.675 (- 1.395)
7. FLO RIDA – I Cry: 119.991 (- 2.706)
8. PINK – Try: 110.375 (- 0.193)
9. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Home: 103.493 (- 1.068)
10. SWEDISH HOUSE MAFIA – Don't You Worry Child: 96.320 (+ 2.216)
11. ED SHEERAN – The A Team: 90.275 (- 0.718)
12. ALICIA KEYS – Girl On Fire: 89.718 (+ 0.176)
13. FUN. – Some Nights: 84.657 (- 1.491)
14. NE-YO – Let Me Love You: 82.018 (- 2.250)
15. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Suit & Tie f/JAY Z: 79.829 (+ 11.017) ▲
16. WILL.I.AM & BRITNEY SPEARS – Scream And Shout: 78.387 (+ 0.982)
17. KE$HA – Die Young: 77.421 (- 1.479) ▼
18. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Thrift Shop f/Wanz: 74.427 (+ 3.370) ▼
19. MIGUEL – Adorn: 69.351 (- 1.029) ▼
20. KELLY CLARKSON – Catch My Breath: 68.135 (+ 1.072)

OTHERS:

PITBULL – Don't Stop The Party: 65.734 (+ 0.096)
IMAGINE DRAGONS – It's Time: 65.727 (+ 1.037)
RANDY HOUSER – How Country Feels: 65.021 (+ 0.571)
MAROON 5 – Daylight: 63.495 (+ 2.166)
CALVIN HARRIS – Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 59.106 (+ 0.196)
KE$HA – C'mon: 51.425 (+ 0.228)
MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 47.331 (- 0.131)
OF MONSTERS AND MEN – Little Talks: 43.930 (+ 0.886)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Two Black Cadillacs: 41.745 (+ 0.262)
ONE DIRECTION – Little Things: 32.690 (- 0.498)
RIHANNA – Pour It Up: 28.011 (+ 2.009)
MUSE – Madness: 23.949 (- 0.080)
BLAKE SHELTON – Sure Be Cool If You Did: 23.882 (+ 1.127)
FUN. – Carry On: 17.084 (+ 0.438)
C. AGUILERA & B. SHELTON – Just A Fool: 5.395 (- 0.118)
BON JOVI – Because We Can: 5.175 (+ 0.485)
RIHANNA – Stay f/Mikky Ekko: 0.816
KELLY ROWLAND – Kisses Down Low: 0.243

[Keelzit]

Pour It Up will be the #1 r&b/hip-hop/urban/rhythmic/wherever it's charting song of the year

[Ballroom Blitzed]

Jan 18, 2013 20:37:41 GMT -5 renfield75 said:

Funny then that Rihanna's dance-pop would be considered R&B, or that Macklemore & Ryan Lewis' novelty would be considered rap (when it's charting at Alternative but not on R&B/Hip Hop airplay). The same problem arises at country with Mumford & Sons getting more country spins than Taylor Swift's WANEGBT but not being allowed to chart on Hot Country Songs. Billboard's opened up an interesting can of worms by making themselves the deciding factor on genre designations over radio PDs.

It's got to come to a head sooner or later. At least the fallout should be entertaining.

[HolidayGuy]

The 8th-day effect for JT's single will be big, but it's doing very well with the daily updates.

[jebsib]

Aren't the labels also consulted / the deciding factor on where a genre song is allocated? I'm sure that they would bitch if a song they deemed "Rock" (as an example) was left off the Rock chart.

Another thing to consider is that music sound constantly evolves: What is r&b to our ears now may not be ten years from now. I can tell you that a song like "Diamonds" would have fit in quite well with a lot of r&b songs from the mid 1980s. (You think "Ghostbusters" and "Caribbean Queen" are that soulful?) And I'm sure that many r&b groups from the 50s would have been appalled and surprised that songs by Notorious BIG or R. Kelly would now be considered r&b classics.

[renfield75]

I think the difference is that pop-flavored songs like "Ghostbusters" and "Caribbean Queen" did well on the R&B chart because of R&B airplay. I don't think of "Rolling In The Deep" as an R&B song but it charted there because R&B stations gave it spins. Songs now chart on genre charts because Billboard decides what they consider to fit into those genres and because crossover pop airplay is factored in. Country radio gave Taylor's WANEGBT enough early curiosity spins to reach #13, decided it was too pop for their format, and dropped it. Billboard decides it is in fact country, adds in pop airplay, and it spends 10 weeks at number one. "Diamonds" certainly had R&B airplay, but it was pop stations that kept it at number one on that chart for 14 weeks. I just don't understand why all-format airplay is being factored into charts that are supposed to represent only one format. It doesn't make sense.

[Keelzit]

Jan 19, 2013 12:25:30 GMT -5 renfield75 said:

I think the difference is that pop-flavored songs like "Ghostbusters" and "Caribbean Queen" did well on the R&B chart because of R&B airplay. I don't think of "Rolling In The Deep" as an R&B song but it charted there because R&B stations gave it spins. Songs now chart on genre charts because Billboard decides what they consider to fit into those genres and because crossover pop airplay is factored in. Country radio gave Taylor's WANEGBT enough early curiosity spins to reach #13, decided it was too pop for their format, and dropped it. Billboard decides it is in fact country, adds in pop airplay, and it spends 10 weeks at number one. "Diamonds" certainly had R&B airplay, but it was pop stations that kept it at number one on that chart for 14 weeks. I just don't understand why all-format airplay is being factored into charts that are supposed to represent only one format. It doesn't make sense.

Agreed.

And why haven't they published a pop chart or pop airplay chart yet? I'm sure it's because they know they'd get flacked if a non-pop song like Somebody That I Used To Know blew up again and their chart rules prevented it from charting in the pop charts.

[Ballroom Blitzed]

This discussion's always going to lead back to WANEGBT and such bizarre spectacles as Gary Trust trying to pass it off as a "pop-leaning country song", isn't it? Everybody forgets about "Diamonds" in the context of this issue.

[cause_for_celebration]

I think Billboard should have a rule for their genre charts that if a track is top 100 or top 75 in a specific genre's airplay chart, then it should be allowed to chart on that genre's overall chart. But then again, the overall genre charts are based on overall airplay not airplay from specific genre formats...

[stetz]

I say just ditch the crossover airplay

[jebsib]

I get the frustration. A lot of it occurred because of WHEN Billboard implemented these chart changes. They did it during a week (or season really) - where Diamonds, WANEGBT and Gangnam Style, all topped their new R&B, Country, and Rap charts respectively. No wonder everyone was stunned and upset.

What if they had waited and we had been introduced to "Thrift Shop" or "Cruise" as the top R&B, Rap or Country leaders... I think the change would have been more digestible. Or go back an earlier 6 months and Take Care by Drake would have been the #1 R&B song, Tyga's "Rack City" could have been the #1 rap song, and Carrie Underwood's "Good Girl" would have been tops in Country.

This whole debate would have been lessened if it hadn't occurred during a Taylor album- cut tsunami (which happens every two years), or a pop-leaning Rihanna lead single (every Fall) or a Korean rap viral sensation explosion (never).

Again, I do blame Billboard for not at least waiting two months until their new chart year begins and not altering their formula mid-stream. Like they always used to.

[Keelzit]

What I don't get with Billboard's charts is why they have so many. I get that it's the biggest music market in the world but having like 100 charts gets a little confusing.

[Deleted]

Don't we all wanna see our faves go #1 on the Hot Recurrent On-Demand Tropical Songs Chart. ???

[Envoirment]

Jan 19, 2013 14:58:13 GMT -5 @gagalicious said:

Don't we all wanna see our faves go #1 on the Hot Recurrent On-Demand Tropical Songs Chart. ???

Yes. :'(

[brucelover]

Justin, oh my God. And the song isn't even that good.

[cesarams]

SUNDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. BRUNO MARS – Locked Out Of Heaven: 206.517 (- 0.298)
2. LUMINEERS – Ho Hey: 165.887 (+ 0.787)
3. TAYLOR SWIFT – I Knew You Were Trouble: 149.784 (+ 3.922) ▲
4. RIHANNA – Diamonds: 144.569 (- 4.101) ▼
5. JUSTIN BIEBER – Beauty And A Beat f/N. Minaj: 127.816 (+ 1.281)
6. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 120.849 (- 1.826)
7. FLO RIDA – I Cry: 117.889 (- 2.102)
8. PINK – Try: 110.345 (- 0.030)
9. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Home: 102.649 (- 0.844)
10. SWEDISH HOUSE MAFIA – Don't You Worry Child: 98.504 (+ 2.184)
11. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Suit & Tie f/JAY Z: 91.187 (+ 11.358) ▲
12. ALICIA KEYS – Girl On Fire: 90.493 (+ 0.775)
13. ED SHEERAN – The A Team: 90.360 (+ 0.085) ▼
14. FUN. – Some Nights: 83.222 (- 1.435) ▼
15. NE-YO – Let Me Love You: 79.881 (- 2.137) ▼
16. WILL.I.AM & BRITNEY SPEARS – Scream And Shout: 78.990 (+ 0.603)
17. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Thrift Shop f/Wanz: 76.537 (+ 2.110) ▲
18. KE$HA – Die Young: 75.372 (- 2.049) ▼
19. KELLY CLARKSON – Catch My Breath: 68.840 (+ 0.705) ▲
20. MIGUEL – Adorn: 68.010 (- 1.341) ▼

OTHERS:

IMAGINE DRAGONS – It's Time: 66.899 (+ 1.172)
PITBULL – Don't Stop The Party: 65.803 (+ 0.069)
RANDY HOUSER – How Country Feels: 65.384 (+ 0.363)
MAROON 5 – Daylight: 64.702 (+ 1.207)
JASON ALDEAN – The Only Way I Know: 63.489
CALVIN HARRIS – Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 59.839 (+ 0.733)
KE$HA – C'mon: 51.856 (+ 0.431)
A$AP ROCKY – F**kin Problems f/Drake: 50.709
MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 47.348 (+ 0.017)
OF MONSTERS AND MEN – Little Talks: 44.508 (+ 0.578)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Two Black Cadillacs: 42.073 (+ 0.328)
RIHANNA – Pour It Up: 29.622 (+ 1.611)
BLAKE SHELTON – Sure Be Cool If You Did: 25.369 (+ 1.487)
MUSE – Madness: 24.418 (+ 0.469)
FUN. – Carry On: 17.617 (+ 0.533)
OLLY MURS – Troublemaker f/Flo Rida: 11.131 (+ 0.733)
PITBULL – Feel This Moment: 7.596
BON JOVI – Because We Can: 5.570 (+ 0.395)
C. AGUILERA & B. SHELTON – Just A Fool: 5.393 (- 0.002)
ONE DIRECTION – Kiss You: 1.629

[HolidayGuy]

What does the song quality have to do with JT's airplay showing? Haven't we long established that there's no correlation between one's opinion of a track's quality and its performance on the charts? Radio and the public apparently are still very interested in him as a musical force, hence the big airplay out of the box (even after the first-day airplay promo).

[dlostfan]

My Predictions:

Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - On-demand - Points
1. Thrift Shop - 350 - 55 - 1300 - 45200
2-3 Locked Out Of Heaven - 140 - 143 - 1050 - 37700
2-3 Suit & Tie - 340 - 55 - 0* - 35700
4. Ho Hey - 155 - 114 - 1050 - 35100
5. I Knew You Were Trouble - 230 - 113 - 0 - 34200
6. Scream & Shout - 195 - 57 - 900 - 29900
7-8 Diamonds - 90 - 101 - 1000 - 27700
7-8 Don't You Worry Child - 140 - 75 - 900 - 27700
9. Beauty And A Beat - 105 - 93 - 550 - 24800
10. Home - 120 - 70 - 500 - 22700

*Suit & Tie could be #2 this week if it can chart on on-demand songs.

[Living Legend]

^ Do you really think Justin will sell 340K? He's already down to #6 on iTunes and the tracking week ends tonight. I see him selling 250K-280K at this point. That may not even be enough for Top 5. Billboard wasn't too confident when they gave their predictions so I think he could end up at #6 or #7 this week.

[slw84]

Jan 20, 2013 12:23:54 GMT -5 Living Legend said:

^ Do you really think Justin will sell 340K? He's already down to #6 on iTunes and the tracking week ends tonight. I see him selling 250K-280K at this point. That may not even be enough for Top 5. Billboard wasn't too confident when they gave their predictions so I think he could end up at #6 or #7 this week.

Would be nice if it didn't block Scream and shout from top 5 ranking.

[brucelover]

He does have a shitload of airplay though, this is not a normal debut week for a new track.

I see it debuting at #5, behind Thrift Shop, I Knew You Were Trouble, Locked Out of Heaven and Ho Hey.

[Agent Yoncé]

When is his 8th day effect, tomorrow?