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Post by junglefever on May 1, 2013 7:48:24 GMT -5
Rocky who were your night targets on each night
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Post by Rocky on May 1, 2013 12:31:18 GMT -5
Rocky who were your night targets on each night 1. Slizzard fot fun, wanted to try how it works and he was strange on the first day. Waste. 2. Cynthia I think I don't need to explain this. She played agressive again, but a bit different. 3. Jungle I know you are not mafia, but can easily be werewolf. 4. Chica Felt so bad after forgetting to check her. It was obvious after the death of Max that she can't be werewolf, but it seems she's neither mafia. Not sure about you and the remaining three. Kurt is the best target.
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2013 16:28:41 GMT -5
Starting tomorrow ill have more time since I officially graduated today. :)
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2013 17:45:37 GMT -5
I will be on later hopefully. I have homework to do but I'm due for a prod later tonight so I'm trying to avoid that.
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2013 19:35:26 GMT -5
I found it awfully strange about Khrazy's actions on day 4 especially how he didn't hammer Kurt when he had the chance. I'm getting the feeling that there's a connection between the 2 players and for that reason I have to: Vote: Kurt
Anyways, I'm going out now and will probably be on in the afternoon tomorrow.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on May 2, 2013 11:21:12 GMT -5
Posting to avoid a prod, but the toothache + work is really keeping me busy. I mean to look into Nick and Krhazy's posts tonight though. I am reluctant right now to put Kurt at L-1 before looking at this evidence, but he is the very likely suspect right now.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on May 2, 2013 11:21:32 GMT -5
*a very likely suspect
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Kurt
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Post by Kurt on May 2, 2013 12:06:43 GMT -5
Didn't even notice I'm already L-2 Avoiding prod since I'm moving out of my dorm today.
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 12:18:58 GMT -5
Nightfire lynch: Kurt, Codex, Jason, Max, Kunt, Josh, Rocky, Landmarx, Spidey, WotUNeed Landmarx lynch: Krhazy, Rocky, Kunt, Josh, Nick, Kurt, Jungle, Drag, Cynthia Spidey lynch: Chica, Jason, Josh, Drag, Rocky, Jungle, Kunt
Requested extension: slizzard, heartbreak (day 1) Requested extension: Josh, Cynthia, Heartbreak, Rocky, Slizzard, Chica, Nick, Drag, Spidey (day 2) Requested extension: Cynthia, Josh, Kunt, Rocky, Spidey, Drag, Heartbreak (day 3) Requested extension: Drag, Nick (day 4)
Confirmed townies, generally accepted town claims, and Chica (b/c Rocky's cop claim likely clears her from being scum) are underlined; confirmed scum are italicized.
I remember saying a while ago that I was sure that at least two people on Nightfire's lynch were scum, and probably three. I don't know why I didn't pursue that more at the time but I wish I had.
Nick's two votes for an extension are strange at first glance since that is typically what scum doesn't want but I'm guessing that was an attempt to seem as townish as possible (esp. on day 2, some suspicion had been cast his way by then and already being one short, that is the last thing the werewolves wanted). Drag has been on both successful extensions and requested another one, and it should also be noted that he is actually the person who first asked if we needed a day 3 extension, just coming back and voting for it later. That doesn't seem very scummy to me at all. So I would say the three remaining scum are Kurt, Jason, and Jungle. (Damn you Sean and your convincing drunk claim *shakes fist*)
The more I think about it the more I think Jungle is the third werewolf, making Kurt and Jason mafia. Nick willingly threw Jason and Kurt under the bus on day 4 (after initially voting for chica); it's clear he was just trying to hop on whatever bandwagon seemed like it would stick the most. But I don't think he would have done that to his remaining teammate.
Not sure whether I prefer to kill off the werewolves completely or take out a mafia member, leaving each with only one player; there are pros to both options. Since we're already at l-2 for Kurt I'll keep my vote there.
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 12:20:50 GMT -5
Sign that there is too much distraction in my life right now: I started typing that post so long ago that Jason hadn't even posted yet!
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Post by Rocky on May 2, 2013 12:25:07 GMT -5
If Jungle is most likely werewolf wouldn't it be the best to lynch him for only one nightkills?
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Post by Kurt on May 2, 2013 12:57:32 GMT -5
Ugh, you've convinced me, Cynthia. Vote: Jungle
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 13:04:12 GMT -5
If we kill the remaining werewolf day 6 will begin with 4 town vs. 2 mafia.
If we kill a mafia member day 6 will either begin with 3 town vs. 1 mafia vs. 1 werewolf, OR 4 town vs. 1 scum (if one of the scum players takes out the other one). 4/1 is even better than 4/2, but there's no guarantee that this would happen. So yes, killing the remaining werewolf is the safer gamble.
If we're correct about who the three scum players are - and I'm very confident that we are - then it actually doesn't matter, even with a 3/1/1 scenario (which is MYLO), b/c either way we would only lynch those three players and town would win. That said, lynching the final werewolf guarantees that we won't encounter a MYLO situation on day 6, and it gives us a bit more wiggle room if we are off about one person.
I'm fine if we switch to voting for jungle, I just don't want to change my vote unless I know for sure the other townies are going to go along with that b/c I'm not here for another week of indecision leading to a no-lynch.
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Post by Rocky on May 2, 2013 13:44:03 GMT -5
Ok Cynthia, I'll start it then.
Vote: Jungle
I've read your posts properly but still don't understand why did you suddenly stopped counting Nick as a possible scum player? If he's the werewolf and jungle is town we'll lose the game, but go on.
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ChicaCherry콜라
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Post by ChicaCherry콜라 on May 2, 2013 14:45:51 GMT -5
I'm torn between voting toward Kurt or Jungle... I know I'll go with one of those. I wish we could all just pick one and stick to it to make this game go faster.
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ChicaCherry콜라
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Post by ChicaCherry콜라 on May 2, 2013 14:47:08 GMT -5
Vote: Jungle
... I'm more convinced this is the best decision.
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 15:19:27 GMT -5
I'm not fully convinced on Jungle at the moment so I'm sticking with Kurt for the time being. I think we need to hear more from Jungle before we even consider voting him out. Also, I feel like rushing the lynch this early on is definitely not the best way to go.
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Post by Rocky on May 2, 2013 15:47:37 GMT -5
I've read your posts properly but still don't understand why did you suddenly stopped counting Nick as a possible scum player? If he's the werewolf and jungle is town we'll lose the game, but go on. I mean Drag lol. I need a long nap asap.
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 15:51:47 GMT -5
^ When did I ever stop counting Nick as a possible scum player?
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 19:03:17 GMT -5
^No, he was talking to me...he was asking why did I stop counting you as a possible scum player, but accidentally typed Nick's name at first.
The answer being because we have narrowed down the possible scum players to you, Jungle, Jason, and Kurt. There are three scum players left so only one of you can be town. (I will grant that this is assuming Chica and Max didn't pull off one of the greatest bluffs possible by him pretending to go after Chica on day 1 and that Heartbreak didn't also pull off one of the greatest bluffs possible by counter-claiming Vengeful after I did.) If you are in fact town it really shouldn't matter to you whether we vote for Jungle or Kurt b/c they're both scum anyway, we're just attempting to kill off the remaining werewolf. Rocky's the cop and he said Jungle came back as not being mafia, so if Jungle is scum he is the lone wolf.
Jason and Kurt seemed likely to be two of the scum players (Kurt in particular b/c of Khrazy conveniently not hammering him), so it had come down to either you or Jungle for me. You not switching your vote to Jungle struck me as weird at first but I have to keep reminding myself that Rocky cleared him as mafia and there's only one werewolf left, so there's no chance of you two being teammates. I'd decided you were the likely townie of the bunch because of how you've played thus far. Your pattern of repeatedly voting for extensions isn't scummy. Putting yourself at L-1 also wasn't all that scummy - at the very least, wouldn't be a likely werewolf move - scum does not benefit from sacrificing a team member so easily. And when you did that you also didn't do anything like try to throw suspicion on another player or anything (doing so and then flipping scum would possibly break the idea of ties between the two of you, that's something i would have thought to do if I was scum and figured my lynch was inevitable). Overall, you've done enough little things that add up in favor of you being town, while Jungle has had a bunch of little things that add up to him leaning more toward being scum IMO. Though I'm directing this paragraph at you this is really meant as an answer to Rocky's question.
One thing that has continued to stick in the back of my mind is the end of day 3, when Spidey and Jungle were both at L-2 and Jungle voted for Spidey to put him at L-1. Until that point neither Jungle nor Sean had ever really said anything about Spidey, and Jungle didn't give any explanation for the vote at the time either. So there didn't seem to be any genuine suspicion on his part, just a really self-serving move. I feel like, if you are a vanilla and it's come down to you and another player whom you haven't really been suspicious of but also have no clue what that person's role might be, all things considered you should be willing to take the lynch if the wind blows in your direction b/c there is a chance that person is more important to you. Jungle has played elsewhere before and seems to be good at it so that seems like an unusually bad move for him to make if he's town b/c it just added to all the other things that make him look scummy, and if he's not actually scum (or vengeful, which has a potential benefit if lynched) then why would he want to do that?
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 19:05:29 GMT -5
Vote: Jungle There are only a couple of defenses he could offer that would change my mind on him not being werewolf at this point so let's see what this pushes him to say.
This puts him at L-1 if I counted correctly.
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Post by junglefever on May 2, 2013 22:08:22 GMT -5
I thought spidey was scum hiding behind all the other inactives. I didn't have a lot to work with at that point, and definitely did not want a no lynch, and wasn't going to hammer myself because what good does that do town either? Lumping together whatever Sean did (which was basically nothing) with what I did also seems pointless. He didn't post enough for one to determine what, even if Sean maybe had some scum candidates, he was thinking about the game. Lumping together what Sean didn't do and what I didn't do doesn't seem to make a lot of sense because you can sort of apply that logic to everything.
Let's talk about my connections to the other werewolves for a sec:
Max - I wasn't around for the only Day he was taking part in, and, even without going back and looking, I presume it's safe to say that Sean didn't say much on any subject. Important note: Max declared, at some point, Nick as a possible subject for scum. Totally a distancing tactic, plausible that he tried to do it early so that he can look town later. Never got that far though. Other targets he named in that post were Chica, Nightfire (confirmed town), Codex (confirmed town), Nick (confirmed wolf), and Josh (confirmed town). Chica is the only non-confirmed person on this list so far. Chica was also his most pushed target. Rocky claims that she CAN'T be werewolf, but why not? Max totally threw Nick under the bus here.
Nick - Nick and I basically butted heads all day yesterDay. I'm trying to ISO his posts on this forum but I'm literally only coming up with 1 post in the last like..3 weeks and that doesn't sound right so I guess I'll go back and read manually because I probably should. The posts that do show up for him in this thread indicate literally ZERO content as far as useful information, but that might be because of whatevers showing up in the filter.
SO I want to post this
1) Josh - Town Doctor 2) Kurt - NO CLAIM 3) Slizzard - Vanilla Townie 4) Nightfire - Town Masonary Seeker 5) Nick - Mafia Goon 6) Sean/Jungle - Vanilla Townie 7) Max - Mafia Goon 8) Codex - Town Doctor 9) Drag - CLAIMED Vanilla Townie 10) Rocky - CLAIMED Town Cop 11) Krhazy - Mafia Vanilla Cop 12) WotUNeed - Town Cop 13) Cynthia - CLAIMED Vengeful Townie 14) Spidey - Vanilla Townie 15) Landmarx - Town Masonary Seeker 16) Chica - NO CLAIM 17) Heartbreak - CLAIMED Vengeful Townie 18) Kunt - Town Masonary Recruiter 19) Jason - NO CLAIM
Now let's think about what roles are still left. Let's assume all CLAIMED roles are true. We have three unclaimed roles. Coincidentally we have 3 scum left.. We are in a MYLO situation, i think it's best that we claim all our roles and see if they add up and if their play is consistent with that claim. Recall that we have CONFIRMED that there are two mafia goons and one werewolf cop left in this game.
HUMOR THIS THOUGHT FOR ONE MINUTE and it might explain why we want to claim now Rocky has claimed cop. Assuming that this is true, that means there cannot be another town cop in this game. However, if Rocky gambles a bit here and says that he is the last cop, because it's TECHNICALLY true, then he can get away with mislynching a townie and to see another day. Now, why it's important to claim. If there's another cop and you don't claim, then Rocky's claim goes uncontested and, if he is the lone werewolf vanilla cop, he's gonna coast. So, this sounds like a HUGE gamble and it is, but let's do some review. Rocky did the post by post analysis of Max. Probably not scummy to a lot of you but tbh alot of that 'analysis' was 'here's a post and here's what it basically said' which isn't really an analysis but more of a recap, psuedo-town. Second, he immediately writes off Chica because of the bash with Max. This, to me, is indirectly a push away from a confirmed werewolf, as if to say 'Using the logic that Chica and Max can't be connected because they butt heads, Max and I certainly can't be connected because I'm also distancing myself from him." Coupled these things together, I think it's plausible that Rocky is the final werewolf "making his last stand" so to speak.
Before we delve into that though, I really think it's important that the other three claim so we can try to parse through all the claims as well.
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Post by junglefever on May 2, 2013 22:10:00 GMT -5
I thought spidey was scum hiding behind all the other inactives. I didn't have a lot to work with at that point, and definitely did not want a no lynch, and wasn't going to hammer myself because what good does that do town either? Lumping together whatever Sean did (which was basically nothing) with what I did also seems pointless. He didn't post enough for one to determine what, even if Sean maybe had some scum candidates, he was thinking about the game. Lumping together what Sean didn't do and what I didn't do doesn't seem to make a lot of sense because you can sort of apply that logic to everything.
Let's talk about my connections to the other werewolves for a sec:
Max - I wasn't around for the only Day he was taking part in, and, even without going back and looking, I presume it's safe to say that Sean didn't say much on any subject. Important note: Max declared, at some point, Nick as a possible subject for scum. Totally a distancing tactic, plausible that he tried to do it early so that he can look town later. Never got that far though. Other targets he named in that post were Chica, Nightfire (confirmed town), Codex (confirmed town), Nick (confirmed wolf), and Josh (confirmed town). Chica is the only non-confirmed person on this list so far. Chica was also his most pushed target. Rocky claims that she CAN'T be werewolf, but why not? Max totally threw Nick under the bus here.
Nick - Nick and I basically butted heads all day yesterDay. I'm trying to ISO his posts on this forum but I'm literally only coming up with 1 post in the last like..3 weeks and that doesn't sound right so I guess I'll go back and read manually because I probably should. The posts that do show up for him in this thread indicate literally ZERO content as far as useful information, but that might be because of whatevers showing up in the filter.
SO I want to post this
1) Josh - Town Doctor 2) Kurt - NO CLAIM 3) Slizzard - Vanilla Townie 4) Nightfire - Town Masonary Seeker 5) Nick - Mafia Goon 6) Sean/Jungle - Vanilla Townie 7) Max - Mafia Goon 8) Codex - Town Doctor 9) Drag - CLAIMED Vanilla Townie 10) Rocky - CLAIMED Town Cop 11) Krhazy - Mafia Vanilla Cop 12) WotUNeed - Town Cop 13) Cynthia - CLAIMED Vengeful Townie 14) Spidey - Vanilla Townie 15) Landmarx - Town Masonary Seeker 16) Chica - NO CLAIM 17) Heartbreak - CLAIMED Vengeful Townie 18) Kunt - Town Masonary Recruiter 19) Jason - NO CLAIM
Now let's think about what roles are still left. Let's assume all CLAIMED roles are true. We have three unclaimed roles. Coincidentally we have 3 scum left.. We are in a MYLO situation, i think it's best that we claim all our roles and see if they add up and if their play is consistent with that claim. Recall that we have CONFIRMED that there are two mafia goons and one werewolf cop left in this game.
HUMOR THIS THOUGHT FOR ONE MINUTE and it might explain why we want to claim now Rocky has claimed cop. Assuming that this is true, that means there cannot be another town cop in this game. However, if Rocky gambles a bit here and says that he is the last cop, because it's TECHNICALLY true, then he can get away with mislynching a townie and to see another day. Now, why it's important to claim. If there's another cop and you don't claim, then Rocky's claim goes uncontested and, if he is the lone werewolf vanilla cop, he's gonna coast. So, this sounds like a HUGE gamble and it is, but let's do some review. Rocky did the post by post analysis of Max. Probably not scummy to a lot of you but tbh alot of that 'analysis' was 'here's a post and here's what it basically said' which isn't really an analysis but more of a recap, psuedo-town. Second, he immediately writes off Chica because of the bash with Max. This, to me, is indirectly a push away from a confirmed werewolf, as if to say 'Using the logic that Chica and Max can't be connected because they butt heads, Max and I certainly can't be connected because I'm also distancing myself from him." Coupled these things together, I think it's plausible that Rocky is the final werewolf "making his last stand" so to speak.
Before we delve into that though, I really think it's important that the other three claim so we can try to parse through all the claims as well.
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Post by junglefever on May 2, 2013 22:11:07 GMT -5
BUT WHY DID THAT POST TWICE
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ChicaCherry콜라
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Post by ChicaCherry콜라 on May 2, 2013 22:36:44 GMT -5
Well I can claim my role as Vanilla Townie...?? Does that help at all? Also Max and I never really "butted heads".. it was more that he was the first person to hardcore accuse me of being scum and came up with a really convincing reason why. There wasn't much back and forth between us. Still, I see the point in your theory, so that's why I'll claim even though my role isn't all that important.
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Post by junglefever on May 2, 2013 22:41:09 GMT -5
I mean, I would hope that, if someone else claims doctor, they would have done so immediately because, i mean...yeah.
But analyzing the numbers and roles can only help at this point since we're at a critical point now.
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ChicaCherry콜라
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Post by ChicaCherry콜라 on May 2, 2013 22:56:21 GMT -5
I mean, I would hope that, if someone else claims doctor, they would have done so immediately because, i mean...yeah. But analyzing the numbers and roles can only help at this point since we're at a critical point now. So you're theory is that Rocky could have possibly false role claimed? That makes a lot of sense, but I'm not convinced of it by any means... I also realize you probably aren't 100% convinced of that either and it's just another theory to throw out there. We basically need everyone to role claim to figure it out??
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ChicaCherry콜라
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Post by ChicaCherry콜라 on May 2, 2013 22:56:40 GMT -5
*Your Holy crap I'm slow today.
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2013 0:57:58 GMT -5
I'm torn between voting toward Kurt or Jungle... I know I'll go with one of those. I wish we could all just pick one and stick to it to make this game go faster. I'm torn between these two as well. It seems most people have gone for Jungle now, and I could hammer, but I'm so worried it will be the wrong decision.
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2013 1:05:09 GMT -5
Day 5 Begins
Deadline has been set for 05.09.13 11:59PM EST.
It takes 5/8 votes to lynch!
Day 5: Vote Count 2 Kurt: Drag Jungle: Kurt, Rocky, Chica, Cynthia Not Voting: Jungle, Heartbreak, Jason
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