Cody Wants Out...
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Post by Cody Wants Out... on Mar 23, 2014 16:31:27 GMT -5
Hmm, I actually like this one. Well, given my eclectic tastes as of late, I shouldn't feel so guilty, right? They actually remind me of a pop/punk/rock band I used to like, Boys Like Girls. I'm looking forward to seeing what they offer from their album; their youthful looks don't really hurt them, neither, but I won't publicly admit that outside of Pulse. ;)
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churchchoir
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Post by churchchoir on Apr 4, 2014 19:47:45 GMT -5
Dan and Shay perform "19 You + Me" on the Ellen show.
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churchchoir
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Post by churchchoir on Apr 11, 2014 11:04:54 GMT -5
This looks about done. Very disappointing/surprising peak position for a song that had so much momentum at first. I wonder if Dan and Shay are going to be too polarizing for country radio, which would really be a shame because their music is absolutely phenomenal. There are six or seven songs on their album that I would love to see as singles, but "What You Do to Me" seems like the most obvious choice for a second single. If that doesn't become a top 10, then I'll definitely say radio may be biased against these guys.
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wilbur
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Post by wilbur on Apr 11, 2014 11:32:33 GMT -5
yea I hope they put out "stop drop and roll" next and if that's a hit then maybe go with "what you do to Me". Im worried the rapid fire lyrics of "what you do to me" will get shunned by country radio unless you have a few hits under your belt first ala Fla Ga Line.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 11, 2014 12:55:10 GMT -5
I said a month back that this single could very well be done. But I expected it to still reach the top 10, then Warner would let this fall. Right now it looks like #11 could very well be it's peak. If it's stays at #11 this week on mediabase, it will then be passed by Luke next week, and only one song will go recurrent in the top 10 two weeks from now with Blake. Perhaps Warner Bros. can find a way to get this inside that top 10, but right now it's not looking promising. I thought that layne would be right in saying that this would pick back up and kept waiting for that next big update, but it never came.
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churchchoir
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Post by churchchoir on Apr 11, 2014 13:04:52 GMT -5
There's not much difference between a top 10 and a #11 peak so I don't think Warner will be doing any big push next week. There won't be a spot in the top 10 opening up anytime soon and when one does I expect Luke and Keith to be the front runners. This reminds me of Cassadee Pope's debut chart run and I suspect radio feels similarly about these guys as they do about Cassadee. They'll play rock and hip hop from Jason Aldean, Luke Bryan, and FGL consistently but PDs seen way more skeptical of pop-sounding stuff which is why I am very uncertain that Dan and Shay will get much success with this album despite all this material that should sell really well.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 11, 2014 13:14:55 GMT -5
There's not much difference between a top 10 and a #11 peak so I don't think Warner will be doing any big push next week. There won't be a spot in the top 10 opening up anytime soon and when one does I expect Luke and Keith to be the front runners. This reminds me of Cassadee Pope's debut chart run and I suspect radio feels similarly about these guys as they do about Cassadee. They'll play rock and hip hop from Jason Aldean, Luke Bryan, and FGL consistently but PDs seen way more skeptical of pop-sounding stuff which is why I am very uncertain that Dan and Shay will get much success with this album despite all this material that should sell really well. In reference to the difference between a top 10 and a #11 peaking single; I think although it's not exactly the biggest thing in the world in regards to success, I feel it does matter to some extent to artists and labels. In regards to their album's future; I'm not as concerned about how thieir next singles from Where It All Began will fare. I'm certainly not predicting wild FGL or Thomas Rhett like success but I feel there is enough good word at radio about them that they can still have a top 10 or two from this album. It will be very interesting to just see how open armed country radio will be with their next single whether it's "What You Do To Me", "Stop Drop And Roll" or another selection. That's an add date I'm anxiously awaiting to see.
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schoolsout
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Post by schoolsout on Apr 11, 2014 22:51:17 GMT -5
This song had so much potential, disappointing to see that "19 You + Me" will most likely fall short of the Top 10.
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kw9461
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Post by kw9461 on Apr 11, 2014 23:01:56 GMT -5
This looks about done. Very disappointing/surprising peak position for a song that had so much momentum at first. I wonder if Dan and Shay are going to be too polarizing for country radio, which would really be a shame because their music is absolutely phenomenal. There are six or seven songs on their album that I would love to see as singles, but "What You Do to Me" seems like the most obvious choice for a second single. If that doesn't become a top 10, then I'll definitely say radio may be biased against these guys. They still seem to have quite a bit of positive buzz, so I think they'll be just fine. This song basically accomplished for them what Storm Warning accomplished for Hunter Hayes. If they release Stop, Drop, + Roll next, I'd be very surprised if it didn't contend for #1. They are bit poppy for my usual tastes, but their voices work so well together that I still enjoy them (although more subtlety in the production department would certainly help).
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McCreerian
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Post by McCreerian on Apr 12, 2014 11:11:14 GMT -5
There's not much difference between a top 10 and a #11 peak so I don't think Warner will be doing any big push next week. There won't be a spot in the top 10 opening up anytime soon and when one does I expect Luke and Keith to be the front runners. This reminds me of Cassadee Pope's debut chart run and I suspect radio feels similarly about these guys as they do about Cassadee. They'll play rock and hip hop from Jason Aldean, Luke Bryan, and FGL consistently but PDs seen way more skeptical of pop-sounding stuff which is why I am very uncertain that Dan and Shay will get much success with this album despite all this material that should sell really well. In reference to the difference between a top 10 and a #11 peaking single; I think although it's not exactly the biggest thing in the world in regards to success, I feel it does matter to some extent to artists and labels. In regards to their album's future; I'm not as concerned about how thieir next singles from Where It All Began will fare. I'm certainly not predicting wild FGL or Thomas Rhett like success but I feel there is enough good word at radio about them that they can still have a top 10 or two from this album. It will be very interesting to just see how open armed country radio will be with their next single whether it's "What You Do To Me", "Stop Drop And Roll" or another selection. That's an add date I'm anxiously awaiting to see. Right now I'd love to see any add date. Is there a way you can still get into the addboard since the "common" log in quit working?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2014 14:06:06 GMT -5
Keeps its bullet on Billboard, but as a -134 and no bullet on Mediabase. Looks officially done. Where are you getting your numbers from? I do not see a -134 anywhere. I agree that the song is done, but I don't know what chart you are looking at. On Mediabase their bullets is -26, but it was down 49 spins and 369k in today's update, so it definitely looks like it will go recurrent on Monday's Billboard chart.
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Apr 15, 2014 14:47:43 GMT -5
Considering how quickly this flew up the chart for a debut single, I'm pretty surprised that it missed the top 10.
Seems like a good time to release "Stop Drop + Roll" - I think that would at least be a top 5 hit.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 15, 2014 15:03:51 GMT -5
All those numbers @brian brought up aren't spins, there points, which Mediabase goes by to rank their singles. :) That explains jhomes87 asking. Dan + Shay decreased 134 points on Mediabase this past week. Charlie decreased 215 points. Chuck decreased 449 points.
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Markus Meyer
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Post by Markus Meyer on Apr 15, 2014 23:44:11 GMT -5
How the hell did this miss the top 10 after flying through the rest of the chart? Seriously, wtf?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 16, 2014 0:38:55 GMT -5
How the hell did this miss the top 10 after flying through the rest of the chart? Seriously, wtf? It's actually not that hard to explain. Just really bad timing. In retrospect, there's no way the label could've known it would play out like this, though. The current top 10: lead singles from Jerrod, Brantley, Rascal Flatts, and Miranda. Thomas Rhett and Brett Eldredge are following up 2 of the biggest hits of 2013. The remaining 4 spots? Blake, Eric, Randy Houser, and FGL/Luke. Randy was coming off back-to-back #1 smashes, Blake and Eric are probably the 2 most popular male country artists right now (ok, 2 of 3, with Aldean thrown in there), and FGL/Luke...pretty self-explanatory with them. And then Luke's new solo single is at #11, so... Look at the huge gap between #14 Justin Moore and the songs below him. It's more than 8 million on Billboard and almost 10 million on Mediabase. And Justin himself has 26 million in audience on BB...14 songs with over 26 million in audience? And the top 10 all over 30 million? I'm not sure if I've ever seen that. So what it boils down to is 14 songs trying to fit into 10 spots...not exactly, but you see my meaning? They are all big artists with big hits but they're all putting up these big numbers at the same time, and 14 songs can't fit into the top 10 Justin Moore is making out well by playing the slower route and bringing up the rear of the pack. Luke is really the only one who never had to worry because even the biggest logjam imaginable couldn't slow him down (he is thee most popular country artist right now). But even artists like Eric, RF, and Keith have been moving slowly, especially Keith. He had some slow weeks early on and that's really come back to haunt him. I think Eric and RF might both be able to make it to #1 yet but right now Eric is stuck in Brantley's shadow (Bottoms Up has been performing better than GMBMH has for the last several weeks now) and RF has their hands full with label-mates Thomas Rhett and FGL (and the "bro" sound is working for these guys, and perhaps against the Flatts, whose song is not "bro"). Ultimately Dan + Shay, despite a fast start and strong sales, just ran into a brick wall. Their career is off to a great start and they definitely have a lot of hype, but a debut single from a rookie act just wasn't going to be able to push its way through this competition. Their chart peak makes complete sense to me...what would've stunned me is if they would've been able to hold off Miranda and Luke and threaten to pass FGL and RF. But new acts just can't do that.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Apr 16, 2014 7:38:19 GMT -5
Epic post, jhomes87. In the meantime, I believe Dan + Shay become the first artist since The Tractors to take their debut single to #11. The Tractors did it in 1994 with Baby Likes To Rock It.
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churchchoir
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Post by churchchoir on Apr 16, 2014 10:32:54 GMT -5
I see this losing audience daily but holding flat spins wise, so maybe Dan and Shay will keep their bullet on Mediabase and get a grace week this Monday on Billboard. Then, when Blake and Randy vacate the top 10 two spots open up for them and Keith Urban, so this could sneak into the top 10 a week from Monday. It's possible that Warner could keep this alive and once it gets in the top 10 it could start gaining back the chunks of audience it lost. I think the reason this song and "Cop Car" are losing so much audience is because they're too low position-wise for such high numbers. It's kind of a more extreme version of the struggling Rascal Flatts and Eric Church experienced for about a week before they entered the top 10. Chances are this is done but I am envisioning a slightly possible scenario where they scrape the top 10 at least.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Apr 16, 2014 12:48:46 GMT -5
I see this losing audience daily but holding flat spins wise, so maybe Dan and Shay will keep their bullet on Mediabase and get a grace week this Monday on Billboard. Then, when Blake and Randy vacate the top 10 two spots open up for them and Keith Urban, so this could sneak into the top 10 a week from Monday. It's possible that Warner could keep this alive and once it gets in the top 10 it could start gaining back the chunks of audience it lost. I think the reason this song and "Cop Car" are losing so much audience is because they're too low position-wise for such high numbers. It's kind of a more extreme version of the struggling Rascal Flatts and Eric Church experienced for about a week before they entered the top 10. Chances are this is done but I am envisioning a slightly possible scenario where they scrape the top 10 at least. If they can figure out a way to hold on they can scrape in this exact scenario. The single did pass Gold sales status today.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Apr 21, 2014 20:03:31 GMT -5
This did go recurrent on Billboard tonight. I imagine that there will be a new single announcement this week, as the album just came out and they'll want it to stay afloat. They can use the #1 debut to help generate press for their new single, too.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Apr 22, 2014 8:21:50 GMT -5
I am starting to think even though this is without a bullet still and recurrent on Billboard, I don't THINK this song is DEAD just yet!!! It surprisingly gained 40 spins TODAY and YES gained some audience back, almost .200 mil in audience back and is still #11 on Mediabase. If it can continue to gain and get it's bullet back, I don't see why it won't make a re-entry on Billboard. Billboard needs to stop pulling songs off the chart so prematurely, like Sheryl Crow who also was sent off on this chart but again today she gained almost 50 spins and gained even though some tiny audience back. It is looking like Warner Bros. is still trying to make this a top ten for the duo but Mediabase it's only hope is to gain that bullet back and hope they can get Randy Houser to fall behind them to have a top ten on their plate. The future 2-3 days ahead will seal this song's fate on Mediabase. I don't think this song is done.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 9:25:06 GMT -5
Billboard needs to stop pulling songs off the chart so prematurely, like Sheryl Crow who also was sent off on this chart but again today she gained almost 50 spins and gained even though some tiny audience back. In some ways I agree, but in others I don't. Billboard is simply following the recurrent rules they've set down--and these rules have almost always worked in the past. The Dan + Shay and Sheryl songs certainly weren't tumbling down the chart, but both songs are more than 20 weeks old, and Sheryl's already had a grace week last week. "19 You + Me", on the other hand, was bulleted last week Monday but it really hasn't gained any audience in a month now. Lately some labels have refused to accept defeat, and that's why we've seen some re-entries on Billboard. But I still prefer their recurrent rules...the old songs disappear more quickly on Billboard, opening up space more quickly than on Mediabase. Dan + Shay and Warner Bros. are certainly fighting hard for that top 10 spot. I still cannot fathom why Keith Urban's "Cop Car" is struggling so badly, but that's the way it is. Keith lost about 100k in today's update, Justin Moore gained around 260k, and D+S gained 156k. All 3 songs could wind up in a very tight race for the #10 spot on Billboard next Monday, the way things look now. Of course, it's just one day, and the bottom could fall out on "19 You + Me" in the coming days (or for Keith as well), but for now it's still hanging in there. On a somewhat-related note...very strange chart right now. The 13-17 range (or thereabouts) is incredibly soft right now...much lower audience numbers for those songs than we'd normally see. There is a HUGE gap between #12 Justin and #13 Craig Campbell. And Craig will need to nearly double his Billboard audience total just to climb 3 spaces and have a shot at the top 10. Position-wise, #13 isn't so far from #10, but his 18.7 million audience number at BB is a far cry from the 32 mil that #10 Miranda has put up. The top 10 is incredibly stacked--and that is probably why D+S, Keith, and Justin have all stalled out so badly. They're the 3 on the outside looking in. But beyond Justin, those other songs are so far back, and none of them are really gaining that well (aside from TBP). Even Jake and Billy's bullets have come way down on Mediabase now. It just seems very strange to me...it would seem as if a lot of the songs that are in the 20-30 range would be racing up quicker and causing the other songs around #15 to either put up higher audience numbers or to start to fall. But with the way things are, Craig Campbell, Craig Morgan, Tyler Farr, The Band Perry, and Sara Evans have really lucked out, whereas D+S, Keith, and Justin have had really bad luck and bad timing.
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schoolsout
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Post by schoolsout on Apr 22, 2014 10:31:32 GMT -5
Your posts are always very insightful, I enjoy reading them. Thank you for the update, jhomes87! Yes, the timing is disappointing because "19 You + Me" and "Cop Car" are two of favorite songs at country radio right now. Personally, I enjoy those two songs over any song currently in the Top 10. I was hoping both songs would reach the Top 10. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like Dan + Shay will get their first Top 10 with this song.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 10:39:35 GMT -5
Your posts are always very insightful, I enjoy reading them. Thank you for the update, jhomes87! Yes, the timing is disappointing because "19 You + Me" and "Cop Car" are two of favorite songs at country radio right now. Personally, I enjoy those two songs over any song currently in the Top 10. I was hoping both songs would reach the Top 10. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like Dan + Shay will get their first Top 10 with this song. Thanks! :) At this point, I actually like Dan + Shay's chances better than I like Keith's or Justin's. Maybe 45% chance for D+S, 30% for Justin, 25% for Keith (one of them is going to get Randy Houser's top 10 spot next Monday). D+S hasn't really done anything but tread water all month, but Keith hasn't done any better, and it's harder for the superstars to start climbing again once their songs have stalled out (which isn't really fair, but that's the way it is). Only 1 day into the new week though...if D+S loses 300k tomorrow, their top 10 chances will take a significant hit, possibly to the benefit of Keith and/or Justin. A very strange chart situation, for sure. The odds would normally look bleak for D+S, and for Keith and Justin, but since they're all basically in the same boat and all struggling at the same time, it's anyone's guess as to who will win the top 10 battle.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Apr 22, 2014 11:38:06 GMT -5
I think Billboard has not been pulling songs prematurely, and they should stick to their rules. When they re-added Little Big Town's Sober, what happened? It got one extra pointless chart week and then starting falling hard. Putting aside whether you like 19 You or not, the song lost a million impressions and has been on the chart forever. The decision to pull it was right.
This makes me think back to students asking me to change their grade on a paper. At some point, it's appropriate for students or record labels to accept reality, and since BB is the authority when it comes to setting their own chart rules, they should not constantly modify their rules to please somebody or other. Now, labels don't ever seem to be content with their peak position, and we see more and more phony-looking chart runs. I'm consistent -- I have disliked that all along. Whether I like the song or not doesn't matter.
I'm happy to say I never changed a grade. Maybe y'all are on the other side of the fence on that one, but I can't help that. I do not want to see this song back on next week's chart.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 22, 2014 12:54:40 GMT -5
I completely agree on Billboard sticking to their rules about sending songs recurrent. In fact I don't feel they should be so willing to have singles re-enter after having a slight bounce back week. We've seen in the past that most times it proves the correct decision. Like Zazie said, "Sober" went into a free fall after it re-entered the chart, and going back a few years to "Happy Endings" by Lee Brice it also went into a free fall shortly after re-entering in 2008. Perhaps the "Carolina" chart run can make them second guess their rules if a song hangs on after being sent recurrent, but Billboard's rules have proven to be pretty fail safe in the past and it would just be confusing if they bent the rules for certain singles.
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Post by drummerman2009 on Apr 22, 2014 22:00:00 GMT -5
I completely agree on Billboard sticking to their rules about sending songs recurrent. In fact I don't feel they should be so willing to have singles re-enter after having a slight bounce back week. We've seen in the past that most times it proves the correct decision. Like Zazie said, "Sober" went into a free fall after it re-entered the chart, and going back a few years to "Happy Endings" by Lee Brice it also went into a free fall shortly after re-entering in 2008. Perhaps the "Carolina" chart run can make them second guess their rules if a song hangs on after being sent recurrent, but Billboard's rules have proven to be pretty fail safe in the past and it would just be confusing if they bent the rules for certain singles. Didn't Craig Morgan's "Almost Home" have a similar run when it went recurrent and then it came back again and then went Top 10 for him? I could see "19 You + Me" coming back like "Sober" did for Little Big Town but I don't know whether Billboard will make the song come back into the chart but it could happen but then again Jake Owen's "Eight Second Ride" had a positive number on Mediabase and then Billboard let that song go recurrent so I don't know what and how Mediabase and Billboard does their recurrency rules anymore.
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churchchoir
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Post by churchchoir on Apr 22, 2014 23:01:37 GMT -5
I don't have a problem with Billboard sending an old song recurrent once it loses the bullet, but if the song bounces back the following week it'd be pretty silly for Billboard to hold that one bad week against it and not let it back on the chart while it continues to climb the Mediabase chart, especially with the way most songs take well over 20 weeks to peak these days. Being over 20 weeks old no longer means a song is flopping or close to peaking. I don't mind Dan and Shay re-entering next week if Warner manages to revive this song, since it's selling really well and just ran into some bad timing on the charts. I think this really deserves a top 5 peak and wouldn't mind seeing Warner fight for it. I'm sure they realized that the top 10 was going to be log-jammed and Dan and Shay would have to wait around outside the top 10 for a few weeks for a slot to free up. I saw this coming a few weeks ago, but I'm surprised they've managed to stay afloat this long and it'd be a shame if they waited around for so long and ended up missing the top 10 anyway, especially since now all these moderate hits are going to have such light competition and just blast their way into the top 10 with no trouble (songs from Justin Moore, Craig Campbell, The Band Perry, and possibly Craig Morgan and/or Sara Evans). At this rate, though, I'm not sure whether "19 You + Me" will get converted into power on a lot more stations and keep climbing for a well-deserved top 5 peak or if it'll end up barely scraping the top 10 like Cassadee Pope's debut single. I sure hope the former scenario comes true, because Dan and Shay are going to need as much momentum as they can get for their next single not to have a painfully slow climb like every new artist and most B-listers have been having with single #2 lately (except, of course, Eric Paslay, a phenomenon I just can't begin to explain ).
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Ten Pound Hammer
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Post by Ten Pound Hammer on Apr 23, 2014 0:02:14 GMT -5
I completely agree on Billboard sticking to their rules about sending songs recurrent. In fact I don't feel they should be so willing to have singles re-enter after having a slight bounce back week. We've seen in the past that most times it proves the correct decision. Like Zazie said, "Sober" went into a free fall after it re-entered the chart, and going back a few years to "Happy Endings" by Lee Brice it also went into a free fall shortly after re-entering in 2008. Perhaps the "Carolina" chart run can make them second guess their rules if a song hangs on after being sent recurrent, but Billboard's rules have proven to be pretty fail safe in the past and it would just be confusing if they bent the rules for certain singles. Didn't Craig Morgan's "Almost Home" have a similar run when it went recurrent and then it came back again and then went Top 10 for him? Almost Home was more like Parmalee's run. Spent forever in the 30s, went recurrent, went un-recurrent, took off.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Apr 23, 2014 9:16:02 GMT -5
Another good day today for this song, still without a bullet on Mediabase but getting closer and closer to getting that bullet back!!! Up 23 spins and up .091 mil in audience, not much but it is seeming more and more like that Warner Bros is trying to revive this song, but the question remains, what will the next few days hold for this song. We shall wait and see!!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2014 9:22:29 GMT -5
Another good day today for this song, still without a bullet on Mediabase but getting closer and closer to getting that bullet back!!! Up 23 spins and up .091 mil in audience, not much but it is seeming more and more like that Warner Bros is trying to revive this song, but the question remains, what will the next few days hold for this song. We shall wait and see!!! They are definitely fighting, but I am almost wondering if we'll have split charts this week--and by that I mean, we might see a different song at #10 on both charts. Keith Urban finally is showing life, up 225k on Mediabase today. Perhaps he can get the Billboard #10, and D+S can get the MB #10 position? Justin Moore is still in the hunt too. I gave some percentages yesterday but I have to adjust them today, and I'm sure they'll change by the day. I'll go 40% chance of D+S getting #10 on either or both charts, 40% chance of Keith, and 20% for Justin.
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