The Hot 100 Formula

[WolfSpear]

Okay, so we all know the Hot 100 formula has a pretty even Airplay/Sales split along with Streaming and On-Demand activity.

Now let's flashback to 1998 when airplay titles were finally allowed onto the charts. Apparently the proportion then was 75/25 split, favoring the airplay by lightyears. What I don't understand is how a single liek Britney Spear's "From The Bottom Of My Broken Heart" and *NSYNC's "Music Of My Heart" both catapulted up the Hot 100 during first week sales. We're talking 52-14 for Britney and 44-2 for *NSYNC. Shouldn't the sales have had a less dramatic impact on the chart action?... or am I missing something? Because these jumps are very reminiscent of leaps in the digital era.

[Verisimilitude]

Britney's "From The Bottom Of My Broken Heart" sold 78,000 copies the week it was at #14 on the Hot 100.

[WolfSpear]

Yeah, I know... but that isn't too hefty is it? At that time, I mean.

[Verisimilitude]

Aug 31, 2013 21:51:17 GMT -5 WolfSpear said:

Yeah, I know... but that's too hefty is it? At that time, I mean.

And as for "Music Of My Heart", it sold 136,000 copies the week it soared to #2. Definitely not a modest total!

[WolfSpear]

Yeah, *NSYNC's sales were huge (probably 50k above everybody else, at least).

I guess what I'm trying to understand is, if Billboard is weighting sales to 25%, doesn't that mean the 78k is only a moderate leap (more like 54-30)? I suppose everyone else's AI and sales (or lack of sales) should be considered in that too. Sorry... I tend to be confusing sometimes :)

[WotUNeed]

Aug 31, 2013 23:43:06 GMT -5 WolfSpear said:

Yeah, *NSYNC's sales were huge (probably 50k above everybody else, at least).

I guess what I'm trying to understand is, if Billboard is weighting sales to 25%, doesn't that mean the 78k is only a moderate leap (more like 54-30)? I suppose everyone else's AI and sales (or lack of sales) should be considered in that too. Sorry... I tend to be confusing sometimes :)

You make sense; you're just misunderstanding what Billboard means when it specifies percentages for its components. Billboard doesn't weight (and hasn't ever weighted) its components based on specific percentages. Whenever Billboard releases percentages for its components, those are what the "average" song on the chart will have. That doesn't stop some songs from being heavily weighted toward sales or airplay.

[WolfSpear]

Oh okay, thanks WotUNeed. So if I employ the straightforward method: 25m AI + 78k = 103 ... then that seems about right for Britney.

Hard to believe the sales dwindled down to 20k for #1. Not that physical sales are any better today, but imagine how bad it would be without digital.

[Glove Slap]

If digital sales never took off, the Hot 100 would be virtually identical to the Hot 100 Airplay chart the way it was during 2002-2004.

[HolidayGuy]

The ratios weren't meant to be carved in stone for every title- for ones whose sales dramatically outweighed its airplay- or vice versa- that threw the ratio off big time.

While the airplay divider's been 10,000 pretty steadily, the sales divider's changed- I believe in 2000, the divider changed to 10, so the divider probably was 12 in 1999. When digital sales entered the picture, the divider was dropped to 5, and then it returned to 10 in summer 2007.

[Glove Slap]

I think the digital sales divider was changed appropriately. It made sense for sales to have a stronger say initially because the digital market was still relatively small, but growing at a fast rate. Once it reached a certain level, the adjustment brought more stability to the chart. In 2005, selling 60-80k of a song in a week was a very big deal, but by 2007, the top selling songs had stronger amounts to power them. Generally if you look where a song was ranked on the sales chart and the airplay chart from 2005 to now, its Hot 100 placement would have been in the same region give or take a few spots.

One practice that I'm glad was phased out was holding songs back from a digital release until they reached a certain level of airplay. If I remember right, by the time Hips Don't Lie was released, it was actually #1 on the Airplay chart.

[HolidayGuy]

^Yes- we've seen tracks hit radio either the week it goes on sale or the week after, and still see very impressive sales numbers.

[surreallife]

Researching past issues of Billboard on their website or through Google books is a great way to find out how BB calculated the HOT 100. It was not until 2012 when on-demand streaming was introduced that BB stopped communicating its' formula. The HOT 100 spotlight column in the December 5th, 1998 issue explains the formula that was introduced when airplay only songs were allowed to chart. The singles sales ratio was 9:1, while the airplay formula was 10,000:1. The sales formula changed again in May 1999 (12:1), September 2000 (10:1), February 2005 (5:1), August 2007 (10:1) and March 2012 (12:1). I suspect it again changed in March 2013 when YouTube videos were added.

[HolidayGuy]

Also, since late 1991- there were small-market radio playlists that also factored into the Hot 100 (which became less prevalent as more stations were added to the BDS-monitored panel); but, they still made the difference in ranking for some up to the early 2000s. It got to a point where it was just a few handfuls of stations left reporting airplay the old way; I think Billboard just dropped the small-market component, though not sure when that happened.

I don't recall off-hand when streaming (via AOL and Yahoo) was added to the mix. That too, at times, made the difference when titles were close in overall points. It was streaming that helped Spice Girls' "Headlines" crack the chart. :)

[WolfSpear]

So, what caused physical singles sales to drop out so fast?

From my perspective, labels wanted you to buy the albums to maximize profit. When you realize that you can't buy the song, you're essentially forced to pay up (which is pretty smart saleswise if you are an unknown like Smash Mouth or Sugar Ray). Plus the labels didn't have to manufacture the product either which is good for them. Still, I'm sure some artists had songs stall on the radio and flop on the Hot 100 due to this.

[surreallife]

Sept 1, 2013 13:27:43 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Also, since late 1991- there were small-market radio playlists that also factored into the Hot 100 (which became less prevalent as more stations were added to the BDS-monitored panel); but, they still made the difference in ranking for some up to the early 2000s. It got to a point where it was just a few handfuls of stations left reporting airplay the old way; I think Billboard just dropped the small-market component, though not sure when that happened.

I don't recall off-hand when streaming (via AOL and Yahoo) was added to the mix. That too, at times, made the difference when titles were close in overall points. It was streaming that helped Spice Girls' "Headlines" crack the chart. :)

Small market playlists were dropped when digital downloads were added starting with the February 12, 2005 chart.  Streaming was added in August 2007 when the downloads ratio was changed from 5:1 to 10:1.  Small market playlist points did at times make the difference between #1 and #2.  Madonna's "This Used To Be My Playground" edged out "Baby Got Back" due to small market playlist points.

[surreallife]

Sept 1, 2013 13:44:25 GMT -5 WolfSpear said:

So, what caused physical singles sales to drop out so fast?

From my perspective, labels wanted you to buy the albums to maximize profit. When you realize that you can't buy the song, you're essentially forced to pay up (which is pretty smart saleswise if you are an unknown like Smash Mouth or Sugar Ray). Plus the labels didn't have to manufacture the product either which is good for them. Still, I'm sure some artists had songs stall on the radio and flop on the Hot 100 due to this.

Young people (the main consumers of singles) got frustrated with the lack of availability of physical singles and started getting them illegally via the internet.  That is to my mind the main reason why sales dropped so much (also the CD single was much more expensive then the cassette single which may have discouraged sales).

[HolidayGuy]

Thanks, surreallife- yes, I remember that razor-think victory that "Playground" had that week. :) Those airplay points also made a difference down the chart,too, even up to the early 2000s- you could even see it when comparing airplay ranks for tracks that didn't have sales points, an seeing how they ranked on the Hot 100.

[85la]

Sept 1, 2013 7:35:13 GMT -5 Glove Slap said:

Generally if you look where a song was ranked on the sales chart and the airplay chart from 2005 to now, its Hot 100 placement would have been in the same region give or take a few spots.

This is a highly inaccurate statement. Many songs have reached the top ten of the Hot 100, even #1, without even appearing on the airplay chart. Remember all the Taylor Swift and Glee songs?

[Glove Slap]

Sept 1, 2013 17:41:11 GMT -5 85la said:

Sept 1, 2013 7:35:13 GMT -5 Glove Slap said:

Generally if you look where a song was ranked on the sales chart and the airplay chart from 2005 to now, its Hot 100 placement would have been in the same region give or take a few spots.

This is a highly inaccurate statement. Many songs have reached the top ten of the Hot 100, even #1, without even appearing on the airplay chart. Remember all the Taylor Swift and Glee songs?

I generally meant that for actual singles that were the promoted songs during a regular chart run. But even for those songs that were sales led and then fell off, that would still happen today. We'll see that when Taylor releases her next album.

[imbondz]

I used to just take the sales position and airplay position, add em up and divide by two and that's where I thought the song should be on the hot 100 give or take a few spots. lol.

[RadioKaKa]

Sept 1, 2013 12:55:12 GMT -5 surreallife said:

Researching past issues of Billboard on their website or through Google books is a great way to find out how BB calculated the HOT 100. It was not until 2012 when on-demand streaming was introduced that BB stopped communicating its' formula. The HOT 100 spotlight column in the December 5th, 1998 issue explains the formula that was introduced when airplay only songs were allowed to chart. The singles sales ratio was 9:1, while the airplay formula was 10,000:1. The sales formula changed again in May 1999 (12:1), September 2000 (10:1), February 2005 (5:1), August 2007 (10:1) and March 2012 (12:1). I suspect it again changed in March 2013 when YouTube videos were added.

I remember it's 16:1 for the Songs Sales ratio since March 2012