HITS 10/8: JT #1 350-370K, Drake 150-170K, Lorde 110-120K

[Verisimilitude]

www.billboard.com/articles/news/5740732/justin-timberlake-heading-for-his-second-no-1-album-this-year?utm_source=twitter

It's all but inevitable that Drake's "Nothing Was the Same" will claim the chart throne on this week's chart. However, with this week's batch of new albums having been released on an off-cycle Monday (instead of Tuesday), we're taking an early look at what is heading for the top of next week's chart. (Next week's top 10 albums will be revealed on Wednesday, Oct. 9.)

That said, Justin Timberlake's "The 20/20 Experience - 2 of 2" is bound for the top of the Billboard 200, so say industry forecasters. It might debut with around 325,000 copies sold by the end of the tracking week on Sunday, Oct. 6.

The arrival at No. 1 would give Timberlake two chart-topping albums this year, following the No. 1 bow of "The 20/20 Experience" earlier this year. The new album, which is the second half of his two-part release, was led by the single "Take Back the Night." It reached No. 29 on the Billboard Hot 100 last month. The album's second single, "TKO," bowed on the Hot 100 last week at No. 54.

Some may be wondering why this week's major new albums all hit retail on Monday, instead of the usual Tuesday. Timberlake's camp announced the release date in May, perhaps owed to how it is the final day of the eligibility period for the upcoming Grammy Awards. Other big albums that had been scheduled for a Tuesday, Oct. 1 release then followed Timblerlake's lead, and moved up their release one day to Monday.

After Timberlake, we should see Lorde bow at No. 2 with her debut full-length effort, "Heroine." It is on track to sell perhaps 115,000 to 125,000. Its hit single "Royals" just wrapped a seven-week run at No. 1 on the Alternative airplay chart. This week, it falls 1-2. Over on the Mainstream Top 40 chart (known as Pop Songs on Billboard.com), the cut remains bulleted at No. 5 for a second week (though it's up by 24% in spins at the format, according to Nielsen BDS). It stood at No. 3 on the Hot 100 last week.

The albums from Timberlake and Lorde are the two more significant titles to arrive to market this week, and likely the only new albums that will sell over 50,000. Other new albums that will debut next week include HAIM's "Days Are Gone" (maybe 20,000), Tyler Farr's "Redneck Crazy" (15,000) and Joan Jett & the Blackhearts' "Unvarnished" (10,000).

[musik...]

Oh my Lorde! That's impressive!

[Taylor.]

Very impressive for Lorde. I wish HAIM could be pulling in those kinds of numbers too, but 20,000 isn't too shabby for them either.

[Live Your Life]

Will Lorde really be #2? That would mean Drake will sell under 115-125k, which I don't see happening. Nonetheless, those are impressive sales for her.

I predicted about 400-500K to for JT, but I wonder how many copies of the Complete Experience will be sold (and how Billboard will count them) because that could bring him closer to that prediction. I'm also curious to see what "The 20/20 Experience" will sell because it's on sale at both iTunes and Amazon, plus, depending on how Billboard will count the Complete Experience, it could see an even bigger increase with those sales added in.

[Deleted]

If those numbers hold up, I doubt the positions will. Drake will be no lower than #2. It is unlikely Drake will fall below 100K

[DJ General]

Very impressive for Lorde. About what I expected for Justin this time around. I think the album and the package will continue to be a decent seller through out the holiday season though. I think Lorde is going to be apretty big surprise hit as well. I could see it selling 1 million pretty easily with some big award performances, etc.

[HolidayGuy]

If Drake's album sees an 80% or larger decline, and Lorde's album sells at the high end of the projection or more, it could be close for No. 2.

[tekkenguy]

Apparently, Lorde is now headed for #3, thanks to a tweet made by yours truly.

[josh]

Oct 1, 2013 20:33:28 GMT -5 tekkenguy said:

Apparently, Lorde is now headed for #3, thanks to a tweet made by yours truly.

Ariana Grande?

[Glove Slap]

Very very impressive numbers for Lorde. A bit less than I expected from Justin, but I suppose the package deal might be eating some of the sales up, or are they being counted together?

[Wavey✨️]

Did not expect Lorde to be that high. That usually seems to be The case with a few artists.

[jj99$ - - LeLe]

Always knew the 500k and 200k predictions for JT and Lorde respectively were too optimistic.

[Enigma.]

That's sort of ouch for JT, however for the big picture we need to see the numbers of the combined version.

[forg]

Pleasant surprise for Lorde!

Anyway, she's eligible now for Best New Artist at the Grammys

[jma]

Great numbers for Lorde! I'll have to check her album out, I love Love Club.

[halo19]

I liked Lorde's full-length album better than her EP.
I'm kind of relieved that Justin's merely moving that much, because to me, the second half of The 20/20 Experience is my least favorite of his solo releases so far.

[Deleted]

That's very solid for Lorde, considering she only has the one song right now. A lot of times new artists with only one hit song sell less than half that. That she's not being positioned as a typical pop star probably has a lot to do with it.

For Justin, 325k is kind of weak, especially given the extra day. And I'm not even sure taking the full Experience set into account would make up for that. But there are worse things in the world than a 'weak' #1 opening with 300k+ so I'm not going to rag him too much for that. if they get the singles right from here on out the album will do fine in the long run.

[Duca]

YOUR NEW RELEASES: Q4 is officially on. But even if you don't believe your calendar, you can believe the fact that Justin's second 20/20 set and Lorde's first full-length have arrived. The two albums, unsurprisingly, occupy the top two spots on the iTunes album chart at the moment. Here's a look at the week's key debuts.

Justin Timberlake (RCA) 350-375k
Lorde (Republic) 105-115k
Tyler Farr (Columbia Nashville) 24-27k
HAIM (Columbia) 19-22k
Hillsong Young & Free (Hillsong) 12-15k
Nelly (Republic) 12-15k

Of course, it's day two of the government shutdown, so please stay in your homes, away from the windows, and conserve water. We will get through this as a people. (10/2p)

Pretty big increase for Justin! Hoping 400k is within reach.

[Live Your Life]

Are there any other instances where an artist scored two #1 albums within 6 months of each other?

[chartfreak]

Poor Nelly.

[slicknickshady]

Oct 2, 2013 15:37:58 GMT -5 Live Your Life said:

Are there any other instances where an artist scored two #1 albums within 6 months of each other?

Stats like this do nothing for me so i don't know. A lot of artists could do this if they put out two albums in a 6th month period. So while it's great for JT. Two #1 Albums. But the 6 month or 1 yr period. Meh. That's Nothing special. The something special is another Number 1 album.

To answer your question, im sure there were a number of artists in the 60s who did this.

[Duca]

Oct 2, 2013 15:37:58 GMT -5 Live Your Life said:

Are there any other instances where an artist scored two #1 albums within 6 months of each other?

DMX holds the record for the smallest gap between two #1 albums: 218 days / 7 months.

"It's Dark And Hell Is Hot" (June 6, 1998) + "Flesh of My Flesh, Blood of My Blood" (January 9, 1999)

1D holds the record for the smallest gap between two #1 albums in a calendar year: 246 days / 8 months.

“Up All Night” (March 31, 2012) + “Take Me Home” (Dec. 1, 2012)

Justin will do it in 195 days, breaking both records. :)

[Verisimilitude]

What about Eminem with "The Eminem Show" and "8 Mile"?

[Duca]

Oct 2, 2013 16:51:09 GMT -5 Verisimilitude said:

What about Eminem with "The Eminem Show" and "8 Mile"?

It's a soundtrack album not credited to Eminem by Billboard.

There's actually an article about this. Let me find it.

[Duca]

Justin Timberlake's 'The 20/20 Experience' & 12 More Two-Album/One-Year Releases

Justin Timberlake released “The 20/20 Experience – 2 of 2,” the other half of his comeback spring album yesterday (Sept. 30). With the singer performing at both the iTunes and iHeartRadio Music Festivals recently, and recent talk show appearance on “Jimmy Kimmel Live,” he’ll likely sell a load of albums and top the 200 Albums next week.

But the chances that Justin’s “2 of 2” will match the sales of its currently double platinum first half are unlikely. Nielsen SoundScan’s official to date numbers reveal that, more times than not, releasing an album less than a year removed from its predecessor means it won’t sell as well. Check out the acts that have dropped multiple albums in one year and find out how they faired.

DMX

Album: "It's Dark And Hell Is Hot" (June 6, 1998)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 1 (4.8 million)

Second Album: "Flesh of My Flesh, Blood of My Blood" (January 9, 1999)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 1 (3.5 million)

Ani DiFranco

Album: “Evolve” (March 29, 2003)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 30 (190,000)

Second Album: “Educated Guess” (Feb. 7, 2004)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 37 (121,000)

Kenny Chesney

Album: “Be As You Are: Songs From An Old Blue Chair” (Feb. 12, 2005)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 1 (1.3 million)

Second Album: “The Road and the Radio” (Nov. 26, 2005)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 1 (3.1 million)

Anthony Hamilton

Album: “Soulife” (July 16, 2005)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 12 (305,000)

Second Album: “Ain't Nobody Worryin'” (Dec. 31, 2005)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 19 (719,000)

Il Divo

Album: “Ancora” (Feb. 11, 2006)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 1 (1.1 million)

Second Album: “Siempre” (Dec. 9, 2006)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 6 (1.1 million)

Alan Jackson

Album: “Precious Memories” (March 18, 2006)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 4 (1.9 million)

Second Album: “Like Red on a Rose” (Oct. 14, 2006)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 4 (841,000)

Barry Manilow

Album: “The Greatest Songs of the Fifties” (Feb. 18, 2006)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 1 (1.1 million)

Second Album: “The Greatest Songs of the Sixties” (Nov. 18, 2006)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 2 (633,000)

Celtic Thunder

Album: “Celtic Thunder” (April 5, 2008)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 48 (231,000)

Second Album: “Act Two” (October 8, 2008)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 61 (193,000)

Nine Inch Nails

Album: “Ghosts I-IV” (April 26, 2008)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 14 (151,000)

Second Album: “The Slip” (Aug. 9, 2008)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 13 (114,000)

Lil Wayne

Album: “Rebirth” (Feb. 20, 2010)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 2 (849,000)

Second Album: “I Am Not a Human Being” (Oct. 16, 2010)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 1 (1 million)

Blake Shelton

Album: “Hillbilly Bone” (March 20, 2010)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 3 (370,000)

Second Album: “All About Tonight” (Aug. 28, 2010)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 6 (238,000)

Third Album: “Loaded: The Best of Blake Shelton” (Release Date: Nov. 27, 2010)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 18 (780,000)

One Direction

Second Album: “Up All Night” (March 31, 2012)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 1 (1.9 million)

Second Album: “Take Me Home” (Dec. 1, 2012)
Billboard 200 Chart Peak: No. 1 (1.8 million)

[halo19]

^Why weren't System of a Down on the article? Mezmerize and Hypnotize were 6 months apart and iirc opened up big.
E: looking at certain sites, both went to #1. (450k and 320k respectively in opening.)

[Verisimilitude]

I thought artists releasing multiple albums closely together was more common in the 1960's as well.

[Enigma.]

That article is pretty pointless apart from the nice sales info.

[chartfreak]

Wow at Lorde being #1 on Itunes over JT. Wasn't expecting that so soon.

[Verisimilitude]

YOUR TOP 15 (PLUS TWO): Justin Timberlake scores his second #1 album of 2013 with part 2 of The 20/20 Experience; you'll note that part 1 of the set is also in this week's Top 15. And between various deluxe editions, explicit versions and whatnot, JT has no fewer than five titles on the iTunes Top 25 album chart at present. Here's how it looks headed into the weekend:

*Justin Timberlake, The 20/20 Experience #2 (RCA) 350-370k
Drake (Young Money/Cash Money/Republic) 150-170k
*Lorde (Republic) 110-120k
Luke Bryan (Capitol Nashville) 28-32k
Cher (Warner Bros.) 27-30k
*Tyler Farr (Columbia Nashville) 24-27k
Kings of Leon (RCA) 24-27k
*HAIM (Columbia) 20-23k
Jack Johnson (Brushfire/Republic) 20-23k
Justin Timberlake The 20/20 Experience #1 (RCA) 18-21k
Justin Moore (Big Machine) 17-20k
Elton John (Capitol) 17-20k
Robin Thicke (Star Trak/Interscope) 15-18k
Florida Georgia Line (Republic Nashville) 15-18k
Alan Jackson (Capitol Nashville) 14-16k
Keith Urban (Capitol Nashville) 14-16k
Avenged Sevenfold (Warner Bros.) 14-16k

*Debuts

The explicit version of this round-up is also available, but be warned: It includes the words "poop," "wiener" and "hoo-hoo." (10/3p)