Soundcl🕤ck
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Post by Soundcl🕤ck on Oct 9, 2018 15:33:29 GMT -5
Top 15: 3 songs by Post, Drake and Cardi B. Top 10: 2 songs by Post, Drake and Cardi B.
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Oct 9, 2018 16:46:01 GMT -5
I know the points are best guesstimates each week, and with the 5% margin of error, it's still entirely possible that Perfect will be #1... yeah? 5% margin of error is for the cut-off and maybe for the songs that peaked at 15-40. For songs like God's Plan and Perfect (that spent 10+ weeks in the top 10) and I would use a 2-3% margin.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 9, 2018 17:30:22 GMT -5
I don't think No Tears Left To Cry would be #21, maybe it could finish above Mine and SAD!.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2018 17:40:17 GMT -5
I know the points are best guesstimates each week, and with the 5% margin of error, it's still entirely possible that Perfect will be #1... yeah? 5% margin of error is for the cut-off and maybe for the songs that peaked at 15-40. For songs like God's Plan and Perfect (that spent 10+ weeks in the top 10) and I would use a 2-3% margin. I guess that still means either could end up on top. Are you that confident in the formula and rounded points for that small of a margin? The amount of time Perfect spent outside of the top 10 seems like it leaves a lot of room for weekly point variances, you know? They're so close.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 9, 2018 19:31:43 GMT -5
Altering some songs from nick64 list, here's what I think can be the Top 25. 1. God's Plan 2. Perfect 3. Meant To Be 4. Havana 5. Psycho 6. rockstar 7. I Like It 8. In My Feelings 9. The Middle 10. Girls Like You 11. Nice For What 12. Lucid Dreams 13. Finesse 14. Better Now 15. New Rules 16. Never Be The Same 17. Boo'd Up 18. No Tears Left To Cry 19. Mine 20. Love Lies 21. SAD! 22. Look Alive 23. Taste 24. Delicate 25. Thunder
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Oct 9, 2018 20:09:34 GMT -5
5% margin of error is for the cut-off and maybe for the songs that peaked at 15-40. For songs like God's Plan and Perfect (that spent 10+ weeks in the top 10) and I would use a 2-3% margin. I guess that still means either could end up on top. Are you that confident in the formula and rounded points for that small of a margin? The amount of time Perfect spent outside of the top 10 seems like it leaves a lot of room for weekly point variances, you know? They're so close. 3% is ~40k points... I mean, it's a lot of points so yeah Perfect has a chance.
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korbel16
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Post by korbel16 on Oct 9, 2018 20:27:30 GMT -5
Has there ever been 3 separate artists with 3 or more songs in the top 15 on the year end.. this is kinda nuts
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 9, 2018 20:34:38 GMT -5
I know it's a little bit early, but which songs is likely to be re-entries by the 2019 YE?
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Soundcl🕤ck
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Post by Soundcl🕤ck on Oct 9, 2018 20:55:00 GMT -5
Has there ever been 3 separate artists with 3 or more songs in the top 15 on the year end.. this is kinda nuts Not sure about that, but in 2016 Rihanna, Drake, The Chainsmokers and Bieber had 2 songs in the top 15.
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CF15
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Post by CF15 on Oct 9, 2018 22:09:07 GMT -5
I know it's a little bit early, but which songs is likely to be re-entries by the 2019 YE? "Girls Like You", "Lucid Dreams", "Youngblood", "SICKO MODE", "Happier", "I Love It" and MAYBE "Better Now" and "In My Feelings", though I wouldn't be surprised if those two missed. "FEFE" could unfortunately make it, too.
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korbel16
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Post by korbel16 on Oct 9, 2018 22:27:56 GMT -5
A lot of songs have peaked late into their chart run this year. Havana, new rules, psycho, girls like you, lucid dreams, better now, love lies, etc hmmm
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Oct 10, 2018 0:15:39 GMT -5
Is it just me or is the end of the year end list coming up really short in terms of hits? There's a distinct possibility that Mona Lisa, I Love It, and both of Eminem's songs all miss the list and honestly IDGAF can't be counted out yet. It's @ 92 and gonna be passed for sure by No Brainer, Natural, Eastside, Trip, and Happier. I'm A Mess and Broken might be contenders, really not sure about that last one, and then maybe Mo Bamba? Or Drip Too Hard would pick up momentum? Honestly I Love It is pretty sure to pass it which would put it below 100 but still as a possibility
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Oct 10, 2018 9:30:49 GMT -5
"rockstar" with a top-five finish? I like the sound of that! I wonder where it will place on the decade-end chart. If Billboard makes adjustments to account for early chart exits due to album bombs and such (same as with "Uptown Funk"), "rockstar" can possibly finish in the top ten, right? By my calculations, "rockstar" is at about #23 for the decade.
See my full all-time list here
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bobbybob
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Post by bobbybob on Oct 10, 2018 11:49:22 GMT -5
My top 20:
1. God’s Plan 2. Perfect 3. Meant To Be 4. Havana 5. rockstar 6. Psycho 7. I Like It 8. In My Feelings 9. The Middle 10. Girls Like You 11. Nice For What 12. Lucid Dreams 13. Better Now 14. Finesse 15. SAD! 16. New Rules 17. Never Be The Same 18. Love Lies 19. Boo’d Up 20. No Tears Left To Cry
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bobbybob
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Post by bobbybob on Oct 10, 2018 11:55:06 GMT -5
Right now, of the songs that have not passed the threshold yet, it looks like "God is a woman", "No Brainer", "Natural", "Eastside", "Trip" and "Happier" will make it. If it were to only be those songs, cut-off would be "Powerglide". What other songs could get enough points? ("I Love It" and "Drip Too Hard" seem like possibilities)
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2018 12:00:08 GMT -5
bobbybob We also have to look at songs that aren't in the top 50 or top 40 yet, cause there could always be a "do re mi" from last year.
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bobbybob
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Post by bobbybob on Oct 10, 2018 12:08:16 GMT -5
bobbybob We also have to look at songs that aren't in the top 50 or top 40 yet, cause there could always be a "do re mi" from last year. Some of the other songs I'm watching are "Beautiful" and "Broken". Maybe "I'm A Mess" too. "High Hopes" I don't think can make make it rn. All of these are stretches to me though.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Oct 10, 2018 12:37:02 GMT -5
I'm A Mess will be above Broken. They debuted the same week and Bebe has been higher for her entire chart run besides the first week I think
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lazer
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Post by lazer on Oct 10, 2018 14:26:27 GMT -5
My top 10 predictions
1. God's Plan 2. Perfect 3. Meant To Be 👎 4. Havana 5. Rockstar 6. I Like It 7. Psycho 8. In My Feelings 9. Girls Like You 10. The Middle
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Oct 10, 2018 14:38:03 GMT -5
Has there ever been 3 separate artists with 3 or more songs in the top 15 on the year end.. this is kinda nuts So funny how those 3 artists are Drake, Cardi B and Post Malone. They definitely ruled the year. I kind of hope Billboard marks their December issue with these three posed on the cover, cuz that'd be awesome.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 10, 2018 18:14:56 GMT -5
My top 20: 1. God’s Plan 2. Perfect 3. Meant To Be 4. Havana 5. rockstar 6. Psycho 7. I Like It 8. In My Feelings 9. The Middle 10. Girls Like You 11. Nice For What 12. Lucid Dreams 13. Better Now 14. Finesse 15. SAD! 16. New Rules 17. Never Be The Same 18. Love Lies 19. Boo’d Up 20. No Tears Left To Cry Oh, SAD! in the Top 15 of the YE is somehow possible.
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scrohr424
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Post by scrohr424 on Oct 10, 2018 22:02:22 GMT -5
Tfw the top 2 of the year AND Nice For What all get thrown off in the same week. :O
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amore
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Post by amore on Oct 11, 2018 6:02:50 GMT -5
Wait... If perfect would have survived Carter V, would that make it the year end #1?
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 11, 2018 6:47:10 GMT -5
Wait... If perfect would have survived Carter V, would that make it the year end #1? Given God's Plan is out on The Carter V album bomb, then Perfect survived. Then the following week (the aftermath of The Carter V), it could've rose a few spots just far from #25, then it could've spent 3-4 more weeks before finally leaving (so given it could've had more weeks than Shape of You). If that happened, then Perfect could've been the YE #1.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Oct 11, 2018 9:23:12 GMT -5
What if The Carter V tracks all plummet and Perfect (all things being otherwise equal) is back in the top 25? (Neither one being a big stretch of imagination.) Could Perfect re-enter the chart as Uptown Funk did on the week after Mars performed it at the Super Bowl? Or does it have to have actual upward movement?
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rimetm
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Post by rimetm on Oct 11, 2018 9:30:17 GMT -5
What if The Carter V tracks all plummet and Perfect (all things being otherwise equal) is back in the top 25? (Neither one being a big stretch of imagination.) Could Perfect re-enter the chart as Uptown Funk did on the week after Mars performed it at the Super Bowl? Or does it have to have actual upward movement? It has to have a reason to re-enter. In Uptown Funk's case, it was a Super Bowl boost at one point, and then memes (a compilation of old movies' dances set to the song, iirc, either that or a wedding performance?). I thought a music video would be enough of a reason, but evidently not?
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rainie
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Post by rainie on Oct 11, 2018 18:08:30 GMT -5
My YE predictions:
1. God’s Plan 2. Perfect 3. Meant to Be 4. Havana 5. Rockstar 6. I Like It 7. Psycho 8. In My Feelings 9. The Middle 10. Girls Like You 11. Nice for What 12. Lucid Dreams 13. Better Now 14. Finesse 15. New Rules 16. Never Be the Same 17. Boo’d Up 18. Mine 19. SAD! 20. No Tears Left to Cry 21. Love Lies 22. Look Alive 23. Thunder 24. Delicate (can’t believe this ended up so high) 25. Taste ... 96. What Lovers Do 97. Mercy 98. Changes 99. One Number Away 100. Say Something
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 11, 2018 18:23:31 GMT -5
I'll be so so happy if Say Something in some way manages to enter the YE.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2018 18:26:23 GMT -5
I'll be so so mad if Say Something in some way manages to enter the YE. Fixed. 100 will probably be Outside Today instead.
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CF15
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Post by CF15 on Oct 11, 2018 18:32:30 GMT -5
I'll be so so mad if Say Something in some way manages to enter the YE. Fixed. 100 will probably be Outside Today instead. Once again, it wasn't broken.
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