nibs
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Post by nibs on Oct 27, 2018 14:35:08 GMT -5
Top20 looks very nice, especially if New Rules will be there. Exciting to see where NTLTC will end, inside top25?
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Oct 27, 2018 14:45:23 GMT -5
Top20 looks very nice, especially if New Rules will be there. Exciting to see where NTLTC will end, inside top25? #20 or #21. Love Lies is still gaining almost 20k points/week and that might be enough to pass NTLTC.
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samo🦕
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Post by samo🦕 on Oct 27, 2018 14:54:32 GMT -5
I expect NTLTC to fall out next week, seeing as it fell 44-49 this week, and it's been on for more than 20 weeks. That'll give Love Lies 4 weeks to make up the 30,000-point gap, which it can easily do if it got 19,000 this week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2018 15:20:40 GMT -5
Where is Ring?
Also no one answered me so I'll ask again. Does Lucid Dreams have a chance to pass Nice For What for 11?
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samo🦕
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Post by samo🦕 on Oct 27, 2018 15:28:36 GMT -5
Where is Ring? Also no one answered me so I'll ask again. Does Lucid Dreams have a chance to pass Nice For What for 11? Almost certainly not, since it's getting 27,000 points a week, and needs 140,000 to pass NFW. If it gets a considerable boost starting next week, it could have a chance to.
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Oct 27, 2018 15:31:27 GMT -5
Where is Ring? Also no one answered me so I'll ask again. Does Lucid Dreams have a chance to pass Nice For What for 11? Almost certainly not, since it's getting 27,000 points a week, and needs 140,000 to pass NFW. If it gets a considerable boost starting next week, it could have a chance to. I'll add Ring next week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2018 15:32:17 GMT -5
Means that Ring is probably too low in points and doesn't have a chance it looks like.
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saucecan7
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Post by saucecan7 on Oct 27, 2018 15:33:36 GMT -5
Almost certainly not, since it's getting 27,000 points a week, and needs 140,000 to pass NFW. If it gets a considerable boost starting next week, it could have a chance to. I'll add Ring next week. Ring is a slow burner. It will be top 20 in like 3 months. Radio and streaming is consistently gaining ever so slightly. It won't make 2018 YE, but it will definetly make 2019 - probably bottom 50 though.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Oct 27, 2018 16:46:12 GMT -5
Where is Ring? Also no one answered me so I'll ask again. Does Lucid Dreams have a chance to pass Nice For What for 11? I count 13 tracks still on the chart that are outside the top 100 but ahead of Ring. There just aren't enough weeks left in the BB year (only 4) for it to make it. I also calculate a "complete" top 100 based on entire chart runs and based on Ring's momentum, I'm sure it'll make that list whether it peaks in 2018 or 2019. As to your 2nd question , Lucid is 140,000 points behind with 4 weeks left, so it would need to average 35,000 points each week to catch up. That's more than the current #1 song, so a long shot at best.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Oct 27, 2018 19:59:41 GMT -5
The fact that The Middle might end up top ten for the year end is honestly really surprising, quite the hit
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2018 20:08:51 GMT -5
The fact that The Middle might end up top ten for the year end is honestly really surprising, quite the hit It's definitely Zedds signature song and biggest hit now.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Oct 27, 2018 20:10:25 GMT -5
The fact that The Middle might end up top ten for the year end is honestly really surprising, quite the hit It's definitely Zedds signature song and biggest hit now. im losing my mind just a little at this fact
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2018 20:15:30 GMT -5
Lucid Dreams is gonna beat it by over 100 points and isn’t even done yet. NBTS would never have been able to close that gap with a few extra weeks. It only topped that digital songs chart because of a remix and sold just modestly otherwise. Can’t judge LD on longevity yet cyz it’s still going up, but it’s had a hell of a climb. There’s so much more to the music industry than pop and hot AC (which are run by PDs not consumers). LD has reached #1 on rhythmic and has been a streaming monster. LD is bigger. 100 percent. Lucid Dreams is a weird song, it's climb has been nothing short of incredible. It rose pretty fast and reached #3, but fell to #16 the next week. Following that it was stuck in the lower half of the Top 10 for months and everyone thought the song had peaked and was on it's way out. But it suddenly caught a second wind and radio started pushing it for real, and it climbed past it's peak and reached #2. And the crazy thing is it's still gaining. It's definitely bigger than NBTS, which would of peaked at #13 if it hadn't been for that country remix that gave it more longevity. Lucid Dreams is a bigger hit overall anyways plus it has naturally grown, unlike NBTS which needed a push to reach it's peak. I'm not even a huge fan of the song, honestly it just now has grown on me. But I fully respect it's grind to the top, it's a survivor. NBTS would of likely peaked at eight without the remix as it would of went up after the album bombs
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 27, 2018 20:52:18 GMT -5
So to have both High Hopes and Beautiful get locked, they both need a strong run within the remaining 4 weeks, with no big drops happening.
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samo🦕
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Post by samo🦕 on Oct 28, 2018 7:05:36 GMT -5
High Hopes needs similar points to Lucid Dreams/Better Now for all 4 weeks to be locked, and Beautiful needs similar points to Natural/Love Lies/I Like It for all 4 weeks.
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Myth X
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Post by Myth X on Oct 28, 2018 7:23:31 GMT -5
Will Girls like you pass "In My Memes"?
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samo🦕
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Post by samo🦕 on Oct 28, 2018 7:34:32 GMT -5
Will Girls like you pass "In My Memes"? Probably, unless it starts falling faster than In My Feelings (which is highly unlikely). There’s a gap of 57,000, and GLY is getting 15,000 more than IMF each week.
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kingvavis
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Post by kingvavis on Oct 28, 2018 11:24:29 GMT -5
Has it ever happened where a song was on the year end list for 3 years in a row and if not, do you guys think it's possible in the future?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2018 11:37:04 GMT -5
Has it ever happened where a song was on the year end list for 3 years in a row and if not, do you guys think it's possible in the future? Radioactive was close, and no it will never happen again due to the 52 week rule.
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Oct 28, 2018 12:14:24 GMT -5
LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - October 27th 2018Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000 # | +/- | Song | Points | Sales | Airplay | On-Demand | YouTube | Programmed | Total Streams | +/- (%) | 1 | = | Girls Like You | 32,900 | 21.0k | 120.0m | 8.2m | 12.3m | 4.7m | 25.4m | +0.6 | 2 | NEW | ZEZE | 32,600 | 23.0k | 4.8m | 37.8m | 9.8m | 0.0m | 47.6m |
| 3 | -1 | Lucid Dreams | 27,900 | 9.9k | 67.2m | 14.2m | 12.7m | 6.2m | 33.2m | -6.4 | 4 | -1 | Better Now | 27,800 | 21.4k | 94.3m | 10.9m | 4.3m | 6.0m | 21.2m | -1.8 | 5 | NEW | MIA | 26,600 | 26.0k | 11.9m | 24.5m | 11.7m | 0.0m | 36.3m |
| 6 | +2 | Happier | 24,100 | 23.8k | 62.0m | 13.1m | 5.1m | 2.3m | 20.6m | +3.9 | 7 | -1 | SICKO MODE | 23,500 | 10.1k | 50.1m | 16.9m | 5.9m | 4.3m | 27.3m | -0.9 | 8 | -4 | Drip Too Hard | 23,500 | 5.0k | 7.5m | 27.2m | 8.9m | 0.0m | 36.2m | -10.5 | 9 | -2 | Youngblood | 23,300 | 16.3k | 93.8m | 8.0m | 3.0m | 2.3m | 13.4m | +0.1 | 10 | -5 | Shallow | 20,900 | 63.0k | 12.0m | 10.5m
| 4.5m | 0.0m | 15.1m | -12.5 |
Sources: Hot 100's article Billboard Chart Beat HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand) HDD's Revenue Chart Kworb's Overall AI YouTube Insights Pandora Top Spins Chart @chartdata (Twitter)
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Oct 28, 2018 12:14:49 GMT -5
Highlights of the week:
- Lucid Dreams: weakest #3 since I began to track the points for all the songs in the top 10 (weakest #3 before this week: Better Now - 27,900 points - October 6);
2018 - The year of close races - #1s decided by less than 1k points
May 12 - Nice For What 42,300 vs. 41,600 Psycho June 2 - Nice For What 36,000 vs. 35,700 This Is America June 23 - Nice For What 32,700 vs. 32,700 Psycho July 14 - Nice For What 40,700 vs. 40,500 Nonstop September 22 - In My Feelings 35,300 vs. 35,100 Girls Like You October 13 - Girls Like You 32,300 vs. 31,400 Mona Lisa October 27 - Girls Like You 32,900 vs. 32,600 ZEZE
Last year, we had only three weeks: Starboy vs. Black Beatles, Despacito vs. That's What I Like and rockstar vs. Bodak Yellow.
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Lux ◢ ◤
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Post by Lux ◢ ◤ on Oct 28, 2018 12:18:19 GMT -5
Has it ever happened where a song was on the year end list for 3 years in a row and if not, do you guys think it's possible in the future? Not in the US, but I believe Chandelier made three year-end charts in the UK.
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Oct 28, 2018 12:19:06 GMT -5
Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - October 27, 2018
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owenlovesmusic
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Post by owenlovesmusic on Oct 28, 2018 12:20:22 GMT -5
Wow didn't realize how close they were.
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samo🦕
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Post by samo🦕 on Oct 28, 2018 12:24:39 GMT -5
Has it ever happened where a song was on the year end list for 3 years in a row and if not, do you guys think it's possible in the future? Not in the US, but I believe Chandelier made three year-end charts in the UK. Yeah, idk how it managed it, but it was #32 in 2014, #42 in 2015 and #81 in 2016.
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dynamac
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Post by dynamac on Oct 28, 2018 13:12:29 GMT -5
Damn, things aren’t looking good for I Love It :’(
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2018 13:17:32 GMT -5
MTB in no way feels like the 3rd biggest song of the year
Havana, Finesse, Rockstar, basically most of the top 15 felt much bigger and memorable.
Also Its tragic that Gods Plan is #1, I never liked it
However, Nice For What & In My Feelings are bops tbh
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 28, 2018 18:03:46 GMT -5
Has it ever happened where a song was on the year end list for 3 years in a row and if not, do you guys think it's possible in the future? Not in the US, but I believe Chandelier made three year-end charts in the UK. Yes, Chandelier did enter the UK Year-End charts 3 years in a row: #32 (2014) #42 (2015) #81 (2016) In the US, I know it's impossible with the 52/25 rule, but I think it could happen if a song has an impressive longevity, equal or surpassing Radioactive's record (like ummm Ed Sheeran + Drake collab?)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2018 18:09:29 GMT -5
MTB in no way feels like the 3rd biggest song of the year Havana, Finesse, Rockstar, basically most of the top 15 felt much bigger and memorable. Also Its tragic that Gods Plan is #1, I never liked it However, Nice For What & In My Feelings are bops tbh Have you not listened to radio this year?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2018 18:11:30 GMT -5
MTB in no way feels like the 3rd biggest song of the year Havana, Finesse, Rockstar, basically most of the top 15 felt much bigger and memorable. Also Its tragic that Gods Plan is #1, I never liked it However, Nice For What & In My Feelings are bops tbh Have you not listened to radio this year? I mean...who listens to radio these days Aux cords and Spotify is the go to way for music nowadays
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