kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on Jan 20, 2018 12:47:12 GMT -5
^ Honestly, it's really hard to tell. A lot of the biggest hits of the year so far all had a fair amount of weeks in the 2017 chart year, which will probably hurt them on this list.
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jan 20, 2018 13:33:47 GMT -5
It's possible that this year's #1 is not on the charts. Also, the number of weeks is really important:
Perfect will have 41 weeks on the chart this year if it goes recurrent after 52 weeks. Any song released this week (Hot 100 dated as February 3), will have a maximum of 43 weeks before the chart year ends.
*SOY had 44 weeks in 2017, Love Yourself had 42 in 2016.
Important noting that Perfect's peak in points is weaker than most of this decade's YE #1s so it'll need longevity.
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kcdawg13
7x Platinum Member
You Are Now Listening to 103.5 Dawn FM
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Post by kcdawg13 on Jan 20, 2018 14:01:57 GMT -5
It's possible that this year's #1 is not on the charts. Also, the number of weeks is really important: Perfect will have 41 weeks on the chart this year if it goes recurrent after 52 weeks. Any song released this week (Hot 100 dated as February 3), will have a maximum of 43 weeks before the chart year ends. *SOY had 44 weeks in 2017, Love Yourself had 42 in 2016. Important noting that Perfect's peak in points is weaker than most of this decade's YE #1s so it'll need longevity. And since it's an Ed Sheeran song I expect radio to clutch onto it for a long time, pop might let it go eventually but AC is gonna never stop playing it. I think it will have decent enough longevity, but I don't think it's gonna be #1 on the YE, but Top 3 is pretty much a lock unless it starts tanking. It's performance is much like Firework in 2011. Right now I think our #1 isn't on the chart yet, you gotta remember Rihanna, Ariana, etc. are all set to release new music this year so you never know what can happen, especially since Despacito came out of nowhere last year.
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Post by Hugo! on Jan 20, 2018 19:12:34 GMT -5
It's possible that this year's #1 is not on the charts. Also, the number of weeks is really important: Perfect will have 41 weeks on the chart this year if it goes recurrent after 52 weeks. Any song released this week (Hot 100 dated as February 3), will have a maximum of 43 weeks before the chart year ends. *SOY had 44 weeks in 2017, Love Yourself had 42 in 2016. Important noting that Perfect's peak in points is weaker than most of this decade's YE #1s so it'll need longevity. And since it's an Ed Sheeran song I expect radio to clutch onto it for a long time, pop might let it go eventually but AC is gonna never stop playing it. I think it will have decent enough longevity, but I don't think it's gonna be #1 on the YE, but Top 3 is pretty much a lock unless it starts tanking. It's performance is much like Firework in 2011. Right now I think our #1 isn't on the chart yet, you gotta remember Rihanna, Ariana, etc. are all set to release new music this year so you never know what can happen, especially since Despacito came out of nowhere last year. But it took the second place and exactly the fact that it came out of nowhere blocked it from getting that #1 spot, I think.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jan 20, 2018 19:36:44 GMT -5
^One advantage that Perfect has compared to most songs is it has 3 versions helping it chart, at least in digital song sales and it also has been strong in digital song sales, but it seems to be close to peaking in radio, but yeah it will stick around there for quite a bit.
In regard to other songs already charting that are posible contenders, the most weeks that Havana could have is 39, which means it would have to outperform Perfect during them, which seems unlikely for now. Finesse is another song that's too early in chart run to know whether it can be a contender, but could get up to 45 weeks.
Regarding future contenders, it would probably have to be a song that debuts within the next month or so regardless of who the artist is. We'll have to revisit this question from time to time.
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kcdawg13
7x Platinum Member
You Are Now Listening to 103.5 Dawn FM
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Post by kcdawg13 on Jan 21, 2018 0:13:11 GMT -5
Something no one has mentioned yet, this will may be the second year in a row that Ed Sheeran, Bruno Mars, and Post Malone all have a song in the YE Top 10.
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noober
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Post by noober on Jan 21, 2018 0:38:29 GMT -5
Something no one has mentioned yet, this will may be the second year in a row that Ed Sheeran, Bruno Mars, and Post Malone all have a song in the YE Top 10. ed and post maybe, but no for bruno
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atg
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Post by atg on Jan 21, 2018 0:43:27 GMT -5
Something no one has mentioned yet, this will may be the second year in a row that Ed Sheeran, Bruno Mars, and Post Malone all have a song in the YE Top 10. ed and post maybe, but no for bruno We never know what's gonna happen but I'm gonna say that bruno might be in the top 10
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kcdawg13
7x Platinum Member
You Are Now Listening to 103.5 Dawn FM
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Post by kcdawg13 on Jan 21, 2018 0:45:06 GMT -5
Something no one has mentioned yet, this will may be the second year in a row that Ed Sheeran, Bruno Mars, and Post Malone all have a song in the YE Top 10. ed and post maybe, but no for bruno It's early as hell but the song will likely go #1 during Grammy week, and I see it having lots of longevity. I guess we'll see but at this point I think it will finish Top 10.
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noober
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Post by noober on Jan 21, 2018 2:38:38 GMT -5
Can someone post data week 9(20-jan-2018)?
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kcdawg13
7x Platinum Member
You Are Now Listening to 103.5 Dawn FM
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Post by kcdawg13 on Jan 21, 2018 3:13:38 GMT -5
Can someone post data week 9(20-jan-2018)? I'm working on it, give me some time. I churned out 2 lists in a day. 01/20 will be out soon.
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noober
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Post by noober on Jan 21, 2018 4:08:46 GMT -5
Can someone post data week 9(20-jan-2018)? I'm working on it, give me some time. I churned out 2 lists in a day. 01/20 will be out soon. I hope best for you
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Post by Naos on Jan 21, 2018 4:52:52 GMT -5
So I wonder if "Filthy" is going to make it. "Marry Me" hopefully should if its rise continues. "Lights Down Low" will probably not make it. I expect its radio to finally peak soon. Could "End Game" miss like "...Ready For It?" is going to? Because I'm perfectly fine with that.
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samo🦕
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Post by samo🦕 on Jan 21, 2018 5:12:48 GMT -5
I hope Marry Me and Good Old Days can make it.
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jan 21, 2018 12:53:25 GMT -5
LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - January 20th 2018
Formula: sales/7.2 + airplay/8400 + on-demand streams/1500 + YouTube streams/1500 + programmed streams/3000 # | +/- | Song | Points | Sales | Airplay | On-Demand | YouTube | Programmed | Total Streams | +/- (%) | 1 | = | Perfect | 52,400 | 98.0k | 145.0m | 12.8m | 13.8m | 11.2m | 38.0m | +0.3 | 2 | = | Havana | 44,000 | 51.0k | 137.6m | 11.1m | 16.7m | 5.6m | 33.5m | -7.6 | 3 | +32 | Finesse | 43,100 | 87.0k | 52.0m | 18.7m | 17.3m | 2.2m | 38.3m | +229.7 | 4 | -1 | rockstar | 39,800 | 40.0k | 100.3m | 17.7m | 11.9m | 7.5m | 37.2m | -5.2 | 5 | = | No Limit | 30,000 | 22.0k | 51.5m | 12.5m | 14.9m | 7.4m | 35.0m | -4.7 | 6 | -2 | Thunder | 26,800 | 40.0k | 92.5m | 6.4m | 6.4m | 5.1m | 17.9m | -20.6 | 7 | -1 | Bad At Love | 26,700 | 26.0k | 108.3m | 7.7m | 5.3m | 4.2m | 17.3m | +1.5 | 8 | -1 | Too Good At Goodbyes | 25,600 | 22.0k | 92.7m | 8.5m | 6.3m | 4.8m | 19.7m | +1.4 | 9 | NEW | Filthy | 25,200 | 79.0k | 36.0m | 8.6m | 5.3m | 1.7m | 15.8m | | 10 | -1 | MotorSport | 23,800 | 15.0k | 44.2m | 10.4m | 11.9m | 4.5m | 26.9m | -5.7 |
Sources: Hot 100's article Billboard Chart Beat HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand) HDD's Revenue Chart Kworb's Overall AI YouTube Insights Pandora Top Spins Chart @chartdata (Twitter)
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jan 21, 2018 12:56:36 GMT -5
^Second straight week without songs with more than 40M streams. Surprising.
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noober
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Post by noober on Jan 21, 2018 13:27:07 GMT -5
^Second straight week without songs with more than 40M streams. Surprising. how you get airplay result?
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noober
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Post by noober on Jan 21, 2018 13:27:53 GMT -5
^Second straight week without songs with more than 40M streams. Surprising. how you get progammed data?
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jan 21, 2018 13:53:00 GMT -5
^Second straight week without songs with more than 40M streams. Surprising. how you get airplay result? Kworb. But Billboard uses data from Nielsen, so I use a multiplier for each song to get close to Billboard's airplay. Example using last week's data: Thunder ---> 122.729 audience impressions, according to Kworb. Thunder's multiplier is 0.7542: 122.729 * 1000 * 0.7542 = 92,562,211 or 122.729 * 754,2 = 92,562,211
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jan 21, 2018 13:58:34 GMT -5
^Second straight week without songs with more than 40M streams. Surprising. how you get progammed data? I don't have this data. I have data from Spotify, YouTube, overall On-Demand, and Billboard's streaming chart, so I just subtract each song's overall streaming numbers by its On-demand + YouTube streams. Example: Finesse had 38.3M total streams last week. 18.7M on-demand + 17.3M YouTube views. 38,300,000 - 18,700,000 - 17,359,586 = 2,240,414 programmed streams
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noober
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Post by noober on Jan 21, 2018 15:03:43 GMT -5
how you get progammed data? I don't have this data. I have data from Spotify, YouTube, overall On-Demand, and Billboard's streaming chart, so I just subtract each song's overall streaming numbers by its On-demand + YouTube streams. Example: Finesse had 38.3M total streams last week. 18.7M on-demand + 17.3M YouTube views. 38,300,000 - 18,700,000 - 17,359,586 = 2,240,414 programmed streams Thanks for info bro☺☺☺
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noober
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Post by noober on Jan 21, 2018 15:17:17 GMT -5
how you get progammed data? I don't have this data. I have data from Spotify, YouTube, overall On-Demand, and Billboard's streaming chart, so I just subtract each song's overall streaming numbers by its On-demand + YouTube streams. Example: Finesse had 38.3M total streams last week. 18.7M on-demand + 17.3M YouTube views. 38,300,000 - 18,700,000 - 17,359,586 = 2,240,414 programmed streams what multiplier you use?
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kcdawg13
7x Platinum Member
You Are Now Listening to 103.5 Dawn FM
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Post by kcdawg13 on Jan 23, 2018 16:07:12 GMT -5
Year-End Hot 100 2018 Predictions - Week 9, dated 01/20/2018 Here's the week 9 of 2018, Perfect jumps ahead of Rockstar and takes the #1 spot, Bad At Love and Motorsports are now locks for the YE, and we have a slew of new entries including River and Mic Drop to name a few. Anyways, that's all, enjoy!
1 Perfect 420,590 2 Rockstar 414,730 3 Havana 397,850 4 Thunder 265,110 5 Gucci Gang 259,220 6 Too Good At Goodbyes 232,990 7 No Limit 231,220 8 Bodak Yellow 209,620 9 Bad At Love 204,580 10 Motorsport 202,550 -----2017 YE CUTOFF LINE (186,150 points)-----
11 New Rules 178,250 12 Feel It Still 169,430 13 What Lovers Do 166,410 14 Sorry Not Sorry 160,800 15 I Get The Bag 149,720 16 Mi Gente 148,390 17 1-800-273-8255 141,700 18 LOVE. 141,160 19 I Fall Apart 139,380 20 Let You Down 135,060
21 Gummo 133,270 22 Shape Of You 131,070 23 Bank Account 130,880 24 Wolves 128,000 25 Young, Dumb & Broke 124,990 26 Believer 122,730 27 Despacito 122,620 28 How Long 114,720 29 The Way Life Goes 112,630 30 Meant To Be 112,560
31 That's What I Like 105,320 32 Attention 104,640 33 The Weekend 102,980 34 Plain Jane 102,910 35 Unforgettable 100,840 36 All I Want For Christmas Is You 100,360 37 Silence 92,770 38 ...Ready For It? 92,200 39 Him & I 92,000 40 Skywalker 91,960
41 What About Us 86,650 42 Ric Flair Drop 80,700 43 Pills And Automobiles 78,930 44 Greatest Love Story 77,110 45 Roll In Piece 76,190 46 Let Me Go 75,920 47 End Game 73,520 48 Rubbin Off The Paint 71,950 49 Lemon 69,800 50 Like I Loved You 69,250
51 Look What You Made Me Do 66,210 52 I'll Name The Dogs 65,680 53 Lights Down Low 64,850 54 Good Old Days 64,110 55 Candy Paint 63,910 56 Yours 60,220 57 Round Here Buzz 57,570 58 There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back 56,680 59 Finesse 55,600 60 Betrayed 52,560
61 Humble 51,110 62 Echame La Culpa 51,030 63 River 48,170 64 Losing Sleep 48,140 65 I Could Use A Love Song 46,760 66 Mic Drop 46,250 67 When It Rains It Pours 46,140 68 Codeine Dreaming 45,630 69 Congratulations 45,310 70 Walk On Water 44,890
71 Rake It Up 43,600 72 Pick It Up 43,470 73 Praying 43,130
OTHERS: Mayores 42,470 Tell Me You Love Me 37,700 Marry Me 37,500 Filthy 25,200
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jan 23, 2018 17:07:03 GMT -5
Perfect would've been #39 last year with its 420.5k points. Rockstar #40 with 414.7k. Havana #41 with 397.8k.
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inverse
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Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Jan 24, 2018 2:22:26 GMT -5
Despacito is gone woohoo!
If Shape Of You can last until 12 or 13 weeks it's in.
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Harx
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Post by Harx on Jan 26, 2018 12:51:10 GMT -5
Drake is coming for that 14 weeks at #1, 2018 year end #1 without even a music video/official audio on YT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2018 12:56:12 GMT -5
Drake is coming for that 14 weeks at #1, 2018 year end #1 without even a music video/official audio on YT No.
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atg
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Post by atg on Jan 26, 2018 12:57:21 GMT -5
Drake is coming for that 14 weeks at #1, 2018 year end #1 without even a music video/official audio on YT There is an audio on YT it's from that "Topic" auto generated channel
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Harx
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Post by Harx on Jan 26, 2018 16:47:41 GMT -5
Drake is coming for that 14 weeks at #1, 2018 year end #1 without even a music video/official audio on YT There is an audio on YT it's from that "Topic" auto generated channel For me and probably many other people those are geo-blocked
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rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
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Post by rimetm on Jan 26, 2018 18:30:17 GMT -5
I mean, if you're geoblocked from seeing the video, then that means you're not in the US, which means you don't contribute point-wise to the Hot 100 anyway, so...
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