rimetm
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Post by rimetm on May 8, 2019 23:06:01 GMT -5
In fhas' (presumably, hopefully) temporary absence, I decided to estimate the real points using the bullets, top 10 numbers, and other tidbits. I plan to do this until the midyear so I can make a video for it. I saw 5 songs as potential candidates to make it to 180k before then, so I estimated their numbers so far and added them to the mix. I've given the numbers for them below the spoilers. {The 5 New Songs Runs and Points} Close Friends 8600 - 58 - Starts 11/24/18 8700 - 57 8300 - 63 6500 - 84 6200 - 90 6100 - 86 - 7000 - 81 6000 - 89 6100 - 92 - - 5600 - 99 8000 - 68 7800 - 73 9600 - 53 8800 - 59 8000 - 66 8600 - 58 8700 - 57 8800 - 64 8900 - 65
9000 - 58 9100 - 57 9200 - 56
When the Party's Over 8500 - 59 - Starts 11/24/18 9300 - 52 9200 - 52 8000 - 68 7900 - 69 7300 - 77 6900 - 82 8000 - 68 7900 - 68 7500 - 74 6200 - 87 7400 - 76 8400 - 61 7300 - 78 6200 - 88 - 5600 - 95 5500 - 94 - - 15000 - 29 12200 - 39
12300 - 38 12200 - 38 12000 - 39
Pure Water 7000 - 81 - Starts 2/2/19 - 8200 - 64 8400 - 61 9000 - 56 9700 - 52 9600 - 51 12000 - 40 12900 - 34 13000 - 31 13100 - 33 13200 - 33
13300 - 33 16500 - 23 16300 - 23
Talk 12200 - 44 - Starts 2/23/19 10000 - 50 9300 - 55 10100 - 49 11800 - 42 11700 - 41 11800 - 40 12000 - 39 18300 - 18
17900 - 20 20900 - 8 21000 - 10
Bad Guy 23500 - 7 - Starts 4/13/19 20200 - 11
21200 - 9 20500 - 9 21100 - 9
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on May 9, 2019 16:54:31 GMT -5
According to Billboard, the top 10 for the first quarter of 2019 is:
1. 7 rings 2. Without Me 3. Sunflower 4. Happier 5. SICKO MODE 6. thank u, next 7. High Hopes 8. Wow. 9. Eastside 10. Shallow
Not including Dec. 2018 tho, this is from Jan. 6 - April 13
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on May 9, 2019 16:55:16 GMT -5
Radio year-end so far:
1. “High Hopes” 2. “Without Me” 3. “Happier” 4. “Eastside” 5. “thank u, next” 6. “Sunflower” 7. “Girls Like You” 8. “Close to Me” 9. “7 rings” 10. “SICKO MODE”
*Also Jan 6 - April 13
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on May 9, 2019 18:40:47 GMT -5
Radio year-end so far: 1. “High Hopes” 2. “Without Me” 3. “Happier” 4. “Eastside” 5. “thank u, next” 6. “Sunflower” 7. “Girls Like You” 8. “Close to Me” 9. “7 rings” 10. “SICKO MODE” *Also Jan 6 - April 13 High Hopes for Radio Year-End #1
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on May 9, 2019 18:48:36 GMT -5
Shocked me at first but nah, looks to be on point - My top 10 is a bit off but it's close so I'm taking that as a good sign.
For the record, it's the exact same order as Mike with the same small margins but I got Shallow just ahead of Eastside.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on May 9, 2019 23:04:00 GMT -5
This is my top 10 over that time frame
1. Without Me-2,238 2. 7 Rings-2,201 3. Sunflower-2,199 4. Happier-1,715 5. Thank U, Next-1,668 6. Sicko Mode-1,660 7. High Hopes-1,577 8. Wow-1,561 9. Eastside-1,320 10. Shallow-1,268
It would appear that either Without Me and Thank U, Next are slightly overcalulated, or 7 Rings and Sicko Mode are slightly undercalculated. Either way, I’m definitely close, since the margin isn’t big for both misses.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on May 9, 2019 23:52:01 GMT -5
You know what's awkward? High Hopes might actually pass Thank U Next on the year end list. It actually has an outside shot for the year end top 10 if it record 37 weeks in this chart year. Wouldn't that be something.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on May 10, 2019 3:59:30 GMT -5
You know what's awkward? High Hopes might actually pass Thank U Next on the year end list. It actually has an outside shot for the year end top 10 if it record 37 weeks in this chart year. Wouldn't that be something. And "thank u, next" is close to recurrency and "High Hopes" has more weeks left and is still within the Top 20 range.
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tallen2001
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Post by tallen2001 on May 10, 2019 7:13:03 GMT -5
You know what's awkward? High Hopes might actually pass Thank U Next on the year end list. It actually has an outside shot for the year end top 10 if it record 37 weeks in this chart year. Wouldn't that be something. It’s definitely plausible. It wouldn’t even be the weirdest one either. Say You Won’t Let Go peaked at #11 but was #11 on the 2017 Year-End and Mine peaked at #11 but was #21 on the 2018 Year-End. Longevity matters more than peak position.
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tallen2001
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Post by tallen2001 on May 10, 2019 7:51:07 GMT -5
Also High Hopes didn’t even have its full chart run in this chart year and it might still be higher than thank u, next.
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Kris
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Post by Kris on May 10, 2019 8:55:07 GMT -5
What was the last year end #1 radio song to miss the top 10?
Did a quick search on the billboard charts and theres none back to 2006 on their website. So it looks like this might be the first in a while.
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edward
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Post by edward on May 10, 2019 22:10:31 GMT -5
Thank u,next is eligible for 6 platinum in USA, it's one of the best (or maybe the best) selling single this year. The fact that it won't even be in the top 10 year-end really frustrates me.
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85la
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Post by 85la on May 11, 2019 1:14:43 GMT -5
What was the last year end #1 radio song to miss the top 10? Did a quick search on the billboard charts and theres none back to 2006 on their website. So it looks like this might be the first in a while. You mean #1 on the year-end Radio Songs chart to miss the top ten of the year-end Hot 100? The last time that happened was in fact in 2006 - Mary J. Blige's Be Without You was #11 on the Hot 100 year-end. I remember that year well because it was remarkable in that that song didn't even make the year-end Hot Digital Songs chart (75 positions then). With the exception of Don't Speak in 1997, which wasn't eligible to chart on the Hot 100, I don't think there's been any other song to do that since Nielsen started tracking data beginning with the 1992 year-end charts.
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velaxti
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Post by velaxti on May 11, 2019 11:51:58 GMT -5
What was the last year end #1 radio song to miss the top 10? Did a quick search on the billboard charts and theres none back to 2006 on their website. So it looks like this might be the first in a while. You mean #1 on the year-end Radio Songs chart to miss the top ten of the year-end Hot 100? The last time that happened was in fact in 2006 - Mary J. Blige's Be Without You was #11 on the Hot 100 year-end. I remember that year well because it was remarkable in that that song didn't even make the year-end Hot Digital Songs chart (75 positions then). With the exception of Don't Speak in 1997, which wasn't eligible to chart on the Hot 100, I don't think there's been any other song to do that since Nielsen started tracking data beginning with the 1992 year-end charts. I still love the Moto Blanco remix of Be Without You. The strings, guitar and percussion, it’s lovely.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on May 11, 2019 12:43:20 GMT -5
Billboard Year end estimates updated through May 11, 2019 chart:
The 212 point jump for Me! would probably be a record too, if such were kept.
With Post Malone's oldest track dropping off the chart this week but Khalid remaining, Better is now better than Better Now.
Have I been waiting a long time to use that line? Yes, yes I have.
(The fine print: As usual, based on my modified inverse points system, with bonus points for multi-week runs at #1, #2 and #3. The top 100 are listed as are any songs still on the chart and >=100 points. Triangles indicated song is still charting. First week included is Dec 1, 2018 chart.)
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on May 11, 2019 13:00:35 GMT -5
By the way, there's a mammoth jump in points required to move above #55. There's over 140 points between #56 & #55. A side-effect of what I call the have/have-not chart? (Many songs/genres, particularly Country, tend to get stuck below #40 on the weekly charts, but songs that make it past two weeks in the top 20 seem to last for months and months and months.)
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tallen2001
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Post by tallen2001 on May 11, 2019 16:44:17 GMT -5
I was wondering if after this years RD if their will be one for the decade end chart or the top 10 songs from each years rankdown put together for a top 100 2010s songs RD?
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on May 11, 2019 19:36:39 GMT -5
I was wondering if after this years RD if their will be one for the decade end chart or the top 10 songs from each years rankdown put together for a top 100 2010s songs RD? I would be happy if it's 2 Rankdowns. 1 featuring the Billboard 2010s Decade-End List, and another with the Top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 Year-End in 2010-2019.
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on May 12, 2019 13:17:52 GMT -5
decade end 1,000 rd let's do this
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fhas
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Post by fhas on May 12, 2019 15:01:47 GMT -5
LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - May 11th 2019Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000 Sources: Hot 100's article Billboard Chart Beat HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand) HDD's Revenue Chart Kworb's Overall AI YouTube Insights Pandora Top Spins Chart @chartdata (Twitter)
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fhas
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Post by fhas on May 12, 2019 15:02:15 GMT -5
Highlights of the week:
- Old Town Road (76,700 points): first song with four weeks of 75k (or more) points since Hello; - ME!¹ (67,300 points): second strongest #2 of the Streaming Era (Sorry - 67,500 points - Jan. 16, 2016); - ME!² (+1,177.6%): biggest percentage increase since Look What You Made Me Do's 1st week at #1 (+1,992.1% - Sep. 16, 2017); - Wow. (27,200 points): weakest #3 since I'm tracking all the songs in the top 10 (May 27, 2017 - Despacito's 1st week at #1); - Sucker (26,200 points): weakest #4 since Drip Too Hard (26,200 points - Oct. 20, 2018);
---> Weeks with the top 2 songs having more than 60k points (Streaming Era):
Jan. 16, 2016: Hello 72,500 vs. 67,500 Sorry (Hello's 10th and final week at #1 - Christmas week 2015) Jun. 6, 2015: Bad Blood 64,000 vs. 63,100 See You Again (Bad Blood's 1st and only week at #1) Feb. 28, 2015: UpTown Funk! 69,100 vs. 62,000 Thinking Out Loud (UpTown Funk's 7th week at #1 - Grammys week 2015) Sep. 6, 2014: Shake It Off 83,900 vs. 66,300 Anaconda (Shake It Off's 1st week at #1) Sep. 28, 2013: Wrecking Ball 116,600 vs. 62,200 Roar (Wrecking Ball's 1st week at #1) Aug. 31, 2013: Blurred Lines 63,200 vs. 61,200 Roar (Blurred Lines' 11th week at #1 - record breaking 228.9M audience) Mar. 9, 2013: Harlem Shake 225,400 vs. 62,500 Thrift Shop (Harlem Shake's 2nd week at #1) Mar. 2, 2013: Harlem Shake 232,300 vs. 67,300 Thrift Shop (Harlem Shake's 1st week at #1 - record breaking 103M streams)
New peak in points: ME!, Talk;
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fhas
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Post by fhas on May 12, 2019 15:03:12 GMT -5
Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - May 11, 2019
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spitfire
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Post by spitfire on May 12, 2019 15:24:08 GMT -5
The top 2 comparison is really amazing.
Thinking Out Loud, Anaconda and ME! were terribly unlucky.
It makes you realise how strong the other songs were.
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fhas
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Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on May 12, 2019 15:44:07 GMT -5
The top 2 comparison is really amazing. Thinking Out Loud, Anaconda and ME! were terribly unlucky. It makes you realise how strong the other songs were. Sorry is also interesting because it was #2 to Hello for eight non-consecutive weeks and that was the last of its eight weeks. The week after, it finally dethroned Hello, but both songs plummeted in points. "The race for No. 1 on the Hot 100 was quite close again this week, with "Sorry" finally finishing ahead of "Hello": while both songs declined sharply in overall activity thanks to the hefty decline in sales for most songs in the tracking week, "Sorry" slipped by 24 percent in Hot 100 chart points, while "Hello" fell by 31 percent."
www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/6836552/justin-bieber-sorry-no-1-adele-hello-hot-100
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spitfire
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Post by spitfire on May 12, 2019 15:45:39 GMT -5
The top 2 comparison is really amazing. Thinking Out Loud, Anaconda and ME! were terribly unlucky. It makes you realise how strong the other songs were. Sorry is also interesting because it was #2 to Hello for eight non-consecutive weeks and that was the last of its eight weeks. The week after, it finally dethroned Hello, but both songs plummeted in points. "The race for No. 1 on the Hot 100 was quite close again this week, with "Sorry" finally finishing ahead of "Hello": while both songs declined sharply in overall activity thanks to the hefty decline in sales for most songs in the tracking week, "Sorry" slipped by 24 percent in Hot 100 chart points, while "Hello" fell by 31 percent."
www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/6836552/justin-bieber-sorry-no-1-adele-hello-hot-100That's really interesting.
I was wondering if Sorry peaked in points when it was number 2 and it seems that was the case.
Thankyou for the work you put in creating these breakdowns.
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fhas
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Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on May 12, 2019 15:56:29 GMT -5
Sorry is also interesting because it was #2 to Hello for eight non-consecutive weeks and that was the last of its eight weeks. The week after, it finally dethroned Hello, but both songs plummeted in points. "The race for No. 1 on the Hot 100 was quite close again this week, with "Sorry" finally finishing ahead of "Hello": while both songs declined sharply in overall activity thanks to the hefty decline in sales for most songs in the tracking week, "Sorry" slipped by 24 percent in Hot 100 chart points, while "Hello" fell by 31 percent."
www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/6836552/justin-bieber-sorry-no-1-adele-hello-hot-100That's really interesting.
I was wondering if Sorry peaked in points when it was number 2 and it seems that was the case.
Thankyou for the work you put in creating these breakdowns.
You're welcome. Sorry was just an average #1 because it "wasted" a lot of weeks at #2 during its peak in overall popularity (October-December 2015). 1st week: Jan. 23, 2016: 51,000 points 2nd week: Jan. 30, 2016: 48,500 points 3rd week: Feb. 6, 2016: 46,400 points
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inverse
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Post by inverse on May 12, 2019 22:29:12 GMT -5
Starboy is another weird one, it got blocked for a long time and when it finally hit #1 it was nowhere near its strongest week.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on May 12, 2019 23:20:32 GMT -5
May 11, 2019 YE Projections (24/52)Locked: none Striking distance: When the Party's Over, Bury a Friend, Close Friends, Talk Getting close: Here Tonight Fell off this week: Better Now Projected spot: #38 This includes a completed formula change, which means a lot of the songs will have vastly different points. I'm changing the cutoff line to be included on this ranking from 430 points to 530 points. I changed the points before adding points for this week though, so the "LW" column is accurate. Locked songs are bolded, songs in striking distance are italicized. #1 is red, top 10 is blue, top 20 is green, top 40 is orange, top 100 is purple.
Rank | LW | Move | Song | Artist | Points | 1 | 1 | = | Without Me | Halsey | 4,110 | 2 | 2 | = | Sunflower | Post Malone & Swae Lee | 3,848 | 3 | 3 | = | Thank U, Next | Ariana Grande | 3,448 | 4 | 4 | = | Happier* | Marshmello & Bastille | 3,292 | 5 | 5 | = | Sicko Mode* | Travis Scott | 3,242 | 6 | 6 | = | High Hopes | Panic! At the Disco | 3,037 | 7 | 7 | = | 7 Rings | Ariana Grande | 2,925 | 8 | 8 | = | Eastside* | Benny Blanco, Halsey & Khalid | 2,486 | 9 | 9 | = | Wow | Post Malone | 2,481 | 10 | 10 | = | Girls Like You* | Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B | 2,397 | 11 | 11 | = | Drip Too Hard | Lil Baby & Gunna | 2,290.5 | 12 | 12 | = | Shallow | Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper | 2,235 | 13 | 19 | +6 | Old Town Road | Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus | 2,218.75 | 14 | 13 | -1 | Going Bad | Meek Mill ft. Drake | 2,181 | 15 | 14 | -1 | Better | Khalid | 1,982 | 16 | 15 | -1 | Better Now* | Post Malone | 1,897.5 | 17 | 16 | -1 | Zeze | Kodak Black ft. Offset & Travis Scott | 1,882.5 | 18 | 18 | = | YoungBlood* | 5 Seconds of Summer | 1,876 | 19 | 17 | -2 | Money | Cardi B | 1,854 | 20 | 21 | +1 | Middle Child | J. Cole | 1,778 | 21 | 20 | -1 | Mia | Bad Bunny ft. Drake | 1,696 | 22 | 22 | = | A Lot | 21 Savage | 1,577 | 23 | 26 | +3 | Sweet But Psycho | Ava Max | 1,549.75 | 24 | 27 | +3 | Be Alright | Dean Lewis | 1,510.25 | 25 | 28 | +3 | Close to Me | Ellie Goulding & Diplo ft. Swae Lee | 1,498.25 | 26 | 23 | -3 | Lucid Dreams* | Juice WRLD | 1,487 | 27 | 31 | +4 | Thotiana | Blueface | 1,472 | 28 | 29 | +1 | You Say | Lauren Daigle | 1,471.5 | 29 | 24 | -5 | Wake Up in the Sky | Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars & Kodak Black | 1,461.5 | 30 | 25 | -5 | Mo Bamba | Sheck Wes | 1,458.5 | 31 | 33 | +2 | Dancing With a Stranger | Sam Smith & Normani | 1,440.5 | 32 | 30 | -2 | Taki Taki | DJ Snake ft. Selena Gomez, Ozuna & Cardi B | 1,406 | 33 | 34 | +1 | Please Me | Cardi B & Bruno Mars | 1,399 | 34 | 32 | -2 | Beautiful Crazy | Luke Combs | 1,393.25 | 35 | 35 | = | Break Up With Your Girlfriend, I'm Bored | Ariana Grande | 1,357 | 36 | 38 | +2 | Look Back At It | A Boogie wit da Hoodie | 1,261.5 | 37 | 36 | -1 | I Like It* | Cardi B ft. Bad Bunny & J Balvin | 1,226.5 | 38 | 37 | -1 | Leave Me Alone | Flipp Dinero | 1,209 | 39 | 43 | +4 | Sucker | Jonas Brothers | 1,199 | 40 | 42 | +2 | Envy Me | Calboy | 1,135.75 | 41 | 40 | -1 | Baby Shark | Pinkfong | 1,135.5 | 42 | 41 | -1 | Murder on my Mind | YNW Melly | 1,134.5 | 43 | 39 | -4 | Breathin | Ariana Grande | 1,100 | 44 | 44 | = | Swervin | A Boogie wit da Hoodie ft. 6ix9ine | 1,066.5 | 45 | 45 | = | Trip* | Ella Mai | 950 | 46 | 48 | +2 | When the Party's Over | Billie Eilish | 949 | 47 | 46 | -1 | Tequila* | Dan+Shay | 912 | 48 | 50 | +2 | Bury a Friend | Billie Eilish | 902.75 | 49 | 47 | -2 | Love Lies* | Khalid & Normani | 888.5 | 50 | 53 | +3 | Close Friends | Lil Baby | 875.25 | 51 | 49 | -2 | This is It | Scotty McCreery | 864.5 | 52 | 56 | +4 | Talk | Khalid | 863.5 | 53 | 51 | -2 | Girl Like You | Jason Aldean | 837.5 | 54 | 52 | -2 | Speechless | Dan+Shay | 830 | 55 | 55 | = | Pure Water | Mustard & Migos | 827 | 56 | 54 | -2 | Beautiful | Bazzi ft. Camila Cabello | 823 | 57 | 57 | = | Backin it Up | Pardison Fontaine ft. Cardi B | 747.25 | 58 | 62 | +4 | Here Tonight | Brett Young | 734.5 | 59 | 58 | -1 | Calling My Spirit | Kodak Black | 705.75 | 60 | 59 | -1 | Uproar | Lil Wayne | 698.75 | 61 | 60 | -1 | Natural* | Imagine Dragons | 698 | 62 | 61 | -1 | Armed & Dangerous | Juice WRLD | 691.5 | 63 | 68 | +5 | Mixed Personalities | YNW Melly ft. Kanye West | 689.5 | 64 | 63 | -1 | Ella Quiere Beber | Anuel AA ft. Romeo Santos | 679.25 | 65 | 64 | -1 | This Feeling | The Chainsmokers ft. Kelsea Ballerini | 669.5 | 66 | 65 | -1 | Twerk | City Girls ft. Cardi B | 665.5 | 67 | 66 | -1 | Pure Cocaine | Lil Baby | 660.75 | 68 | 67 | -1 | Millionaire | Chris Stapleton | 658 | 69 | 70 | +1 | Robbery | Juice WRLD | 656.75 | 70 | 72 | +2 | Make it Sweet | Old Dominion | 645.5 | 71 | 69 | -2 | Sixteen | Thomas Rhett | 629 | 72 | 71 | -1 | Nothing Breaks Like a Heart | Mark Ronson ft. Miley Cyrus | 607 | 73 | 80 | +7 | Con Calma | Daddy Yankee ft. Katy Perry & Snow | 605.75 | 74 | 73 | -1 | Lovely | Billie Eilish & Khalid | 599.5 | 75 | 74 | -1 | Burning Man | Dierks Bentley ft. Brothers Osbourne | 585 | 76 | 75 | -1 | Arms Around You | XXXTentacion & Lil Pump ft. Maluma & Swae Lee | 584.5 | 77 | 81 | +4 | Put a Date on It | Yo Gotti ft. Lil Baby | 574 | 78 | 83 | +5 | Who Do You Love | The Chainsmokers ft. 5 Seconds of Summer | 569.25 | 79 | 76 | -3 | Take it From Me | Jordan Davis | 566.75 | 80 | 77 | -3 | Best Shot | Jimmie Allen | 566.5 | 81 | 78 | -3 | Good Girl | Dustin Lynch | 564.5 | 82 | 79 | -3 | Undecided | Chris Brown | 563.5 | 83 | 94 | +11 | Bad Guy | Billie Eilish | 563 | 84 | 84 | = | Shot Clock | Ella Mai | 541.5 | 85 | 82 | -3 | She Got the Best of Me | Luke Combs | 530 |
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on May 12, 2019 23:27:22 GMT -5
Formatting my year end this way honestly takes a lot of time for me, and starting next week, I’m gonna be working an internship over the summer. I doubt I’ll have the time to keep doing it this way. I’m still gonna be doing the year end projections, but I’m probably just gonna copy-paste it from my notes. If I have time, I’ll still color code it. I’ll probably start formatting it this way again after August when the internship ends.
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nick64
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Post by nick64 on May 13, 2019 5:48:11 GMT -5
Formatting my year end this way honestly takes a lot of time for me, and starting next week, I’m gonna be working an internship over the summer. I doubt I’ll have the time to keep doing it this way. I’m still gonna be doing the year end projections, but I’m probably just gonna copy-paste it from my notes. If I have time, I’ll still color code it. I’ll probably start formatting it this way again after August when the internship ends. Have you tried making an Excel spreadsheet? Once you have the format set, all you’d have to do each week is adjust the point totals and hit sort. Would save you a lot of work.
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